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MLB Mailbag: Guerrero, Alonso, Yoshida, Alcantara, Cubs, Mariners

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This week's mailbag gets into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Pete Alonso, whether the Mets should move on from Alonso, whether any MLB trade was as shocking as the NBA's Luka Doncic deal, those who feel this MLB offseason has been dull, how much the Red Sox would have to eat on Masataka Yoshida's contract, possible Sandy Alcantara suitors, and much more.

Jed asks:

Why is the general expectation that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will get over $400m in free agency next winter for 10+ years despite being a defensively limited, slow-footed, right-hand batting first baseman. With Pete Alonso, I've seen so much coverage about how he may not get more than a $23m AAV from the Mets for no more than three years total. Obviously Pete is 4 years and three months older than Vlad Jr., and would be playing his age 30-32 seasons on a three-year deal. But Vlad Jr. will be 27 in 2026, the first year of his presumptive 10+ year mega deal. After those first three seasons on Vlad's hypothetical 10+ year mega deal, he will also be playing his age-30 season in the fourth year of such a contract, presumably at a $40m AAV.

Aside from getting his age 27-29 seasons, why are pundits convinced that an expensive, long-term deal for Vlad Jr makes more sense than a short-term deal with a $23m AAV for Alonso (especially considering that since their 2019 debut seasons, Alonso has hit 66 more homers and posted a higher slugging percentage)? Why is everyone convinced that Vlad Jr represents a better long-term bet to succeed than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and all the other countless examples of RHB 1B who failed to produce in their 30s?

I can't speak to general expectations; only my own.  I encourage you to re-read what I wrote on this on December 10th.  A key point was, "So much depends on which Guerrero shows up in 2025."

I strongly prefer the wRC+ stat to home run totals and slugging percentage.  We need to account for offensive contributions other than the home run, and in a more logical way than slugging percentage (a home run is not worth four times as much as a single, for example).  Guerrero has two elite seasons with the bat: 2021 and 2024.  In those years, he hit so well that his defense was an afterthought and he was worth 5-6 WAR.  Juan Soto had six 5-WAR-ish or better seasons under his belt prior to free agency (extrapolating his rookie year and the shortened 2020 season), and it's because he's never posted worse than a 143 wRC+.

Guerrero sandwiched a 132 and 118 season between his 160+ ones, and hitting in that more human range can drop him all the way to 1-3 WAR.  That's a guy you very much don't want to be paying $40MM a year.  But Vlad always has the batted-ball data to back up elite offense, and with another 160+ season I do think offers reach $400MM+.

Alonso's best season was his rookie year with a 144 wRC+.  His second-best was 141 in 2022.  He's been at 121 over the last two years.  He's a 2-3 WAR player who's shown a ceiling of 4 WAR.  Guerrero has shown more variance, but his ceiling has been 6 WAR and he nearly reached it in the recently-completed season.

In comparing age, I'd look at the Opening Day difference of each player's first year under a new free agent contract.  In other words, comparing age at 4-1-25 for Alonso to 4-1-26 for Guerrero.  Using that approach, Guerrero is 3.27 years younger.  Those being prime years, they're incredibly important when it comes to free agent contracts.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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The Giants Shouldn’t Call It An Offseason Yet

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The Giants' offseason got out to a roaring start and has quieted to something of a murmur. Even before the winter truly began and they formally announced a changing of the guard in baseball operations, then-advisor and now-president of baseball ops Buster Posey at least had a hand in (if he wasn't firmly driving the bus) extending Matt Chapman for six years and $151MM. At his introductory press conference, Posey offered up the following quote:

"I think back on some of my earliest memories walking into a spring training clubhouse -- walking in and seeing Willie Mays sitting at a table with Willie McCovey and Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal. The next week it's Will Clark, Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds. I always appreciated -- and I don't think I appreciated it as much when I was a younger player -- but as time went on, I appreciated what that meant not only to the community but to us as players. There's a standard and expectation for being a San Francisco Giant. It's a privilege to try to go out on the field and hold ourselves accountable to that standard. You can go more toward my era, with [Matt] Cain and [Tim] Lincecum, [Madison] Bumgarner and [Brandon] Crawford and [Brandon] Belt. What I came to realize is sure, all those guys were great players and part of great teams, but what those guys ultimately meant to the San Francisco Giants fanbase and the community was memories. And all of us that are lucky enough to get to be involved in baseball in whatever capacity, understand that not only is it the greatest game in the world, but we're in the memory-making business. It's ultimately entertainment. It's an opportunity for grandparents and parents to share memories. It's an opportunity for strangers sitting out in the bleachers to share a great memory that happens at the ballpark and that can be talked about from that time on for the rest of their life, potentially."

Just over a month into the offseason, that mentality appeared to be on full display. Willy Adames put pen to paper on the largest contract the franchise had ever handed out: a seven-year, $182MM contract. The team was tied to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and looked into trades for star players like Kyle Tucker and Garrett Crochet, ultimately balking at the notion of including top prospect Bryce Eldridge in a package for either. Still, it was a promising start to a winter after years of the Giants eschewing bids for high-end free agents and generally showing an aversion to long-term commitments.

The vibe surrounding the Giants seems much different just six to seven weeks later. The Giants' most recent move was a cost-saving trade. Posey is now expressing that he's comfortable with the roster as currently constructed.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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MLB Mailbag: Bregman, Red Sox, Kelenic, Tigers, Marlins

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This week's mailbag gets into Alex Bregman's possible landing spots, Boston's failure to add a right-handed bat, potential contracts for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker, Jarred Kelenic's trade value, the Tigers' relatively quiet offseason, the Marlins' rebuild, and much more.

Mark asks:

Logically, which team makes the most sense to sign Alex Bregman? I see awkward fits in HOU and BOS. And while TOR has a logical fit roster-wise, DET just makes the most sense to me. A need for veteran leadership on a young team, need for a 3B, and room on their payroll. I'm not a DET fan, but an STL fan who wants to find a team for Nolan Arenado, which I doubt happens until Bregman signs! Thanks.

Troy asks:

Big Astros fan here, what is your feeling about where Bregman goes? I'd love to have him back with the team but to me it may not be a good fit anymore with the other moves that have already been made, plus with a win now team such as this I'd rather them take the money they saved trading Pressly and get a true outfielder.

On Tuesday, Astros GM Dana Brown said, "I would mostly say it’s all internal conversations as to what we would like to do in terms of Bregman."  Asked a few days earlier whether the door is shut, Brown hesitated and replied, "I would say it's cracked."  At another point he said it's a "long shot."

On Monday, Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Bregman "maintains interest from five teams and is no closer to a decision now than before Pressly’s departure."  They added, "All winter, sources have indicated Astros owner Jim Crane is unwilling to pay the tax for a second consecutive season."  Estimates have the Astros' CBT payroll at $4.86MM shy of the first tax threshold, or $4.68MM short.

Crucially, the Athletic reporters said the Astros' six-year, $156MM offer to Bregman "remains on the table."  If that's true, then Crane absolutely is willing to go over the tax threshold again, since Bregman could theoretically just accept their offer right now.

It seems fair to guess that the Astros will not be increasing their offer much if at all.  In our early November contract predictions, we gave Bregman the Kris Bryant contract: seven years, $182MM.  Bryant, however, was about nine months younger than Bregman will be on Opening Day this year.  Plus, Bryant had to join a poorly-run, typically non-competitive team to get his maximum contract.

I don't see why Scott Boras wouldn't just accept the Astros' offer.  It's true: if he finds Bregman a bigger offer elsewhere, he wins.  I'm not sure Bregman would be happier; I don't know what's going on in his head.  But accepting $156MM to stay in Houston would hardly be a disappointment, and it'd still be more money than Matt Chapman received on his recent extension.

Dana Brown might have a great poker face, but I saw nothing to indicate he's bluffing and a deal is right around the corner.  On the other hand, if that Astros' offer is indeed on the table, one word from Bregman and the deal could be done.

It's true, the fit is mildly awkward now that the Astros have Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes.  But as MLBTR's Steve Adams has said, it's really not crazy to take one of the game's worst defensive second basemen in Altuve and stick him in left field to make the pieces fit.  Plus, it wouldn't be surprising to see Yordan Alvarez miss a month or age start to catch up with Walker (34 in March) or Altuve (35 in May).  The odds that one of these guys gets hurt are pretty strong.

So I do still like the Astros as the best fit for Bregman, but let's look at the other suitors.

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Where Can The Guardians Find A Center Fielder?

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The Guardians have made four free agent acquisitions this offseason. They retained Austin Hedges as their backup catcher. Shane Bieber re-signed to finish his Tommy John rehab and return to the rotation midseason. Cleveland brought back Carlos Santana to play first base -- a move made in tandem with the trade sending Josh Naylor to Arizona. Last week, they added Paul Sewald to an already excellent bullpen. Cleveland also brought in Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi via trade to deepen the rotation.

They've yet to address the outfield. Steven Kwan is one of the game's top left fielders. The other two positions are far less settled. Cleveland tendered Lane Thomas a contract for his final year of arbitration. Barring a late trade, he'll be back to play regularly somewhere. For now, that looks like center field by default.

The Guardians started nine different players in center field last year. Three of them -- Ramón Laureano, Myles Straw and Estevan Florial -- are no longer in the organization. Six others, including Thomas, remain on the 40-man roster. Yet none of them should be playing center field regularly for a team trying to defend its AL Central title. Top prospect Chase DeLauter is the hopeful long-term answer, but he has only played 42 games above High-A. It's tough to bank on him breaking camp.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 3pm Central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

 

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Where Can The Rangers Find A Closer?

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The Rangers watched four key relievers hit the open market to begin the 2024-25 offseason. Closer Kirby Yates, who proved a bargain pickup on a one-year $4.5MM deal, reached free agency alongside David Robertson, Jose Leclerc and Andrew Chafin (who had a club option declined). Those four were the Rangers' top four late-inning options in the season's second half.

Beyond the difficulty of retaining any group of coveted free agents and/or rebuilding an entire relief corps, Texas faced financial difficulties. Re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and improving a lineup that struggled badly against fastballs were both priorities. Eovaldi cost more than most would've anticipated entering the offseason, benefitting from the hyper-aggressive free agent market for starters to the tune of a three-year, $75MM deal. Slugger Joc Pederson similarly commanded a stout $18.5MM-per-season annual value on his two-year deal. As with Eovaldi, that topped expectations.

Texas did trim some payroll and replace a bullpen arm in one fell swoop, trading the final two years of club control over first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals in exchange for five seasons of control over lefty Robert Garcia. The 28-year-old's 4.22 ERA last season isn't particularly exciting, but a big 29.9% strikeout rate and sharp 6.4% walk rate portend improvements in the ERA department moving forward.

The rest of the Rangers' bullpen dealings have been cost-efficient in nature. Texas brought old friend Chris Martin back on a one-year, $5.5MM deal earlier this month. They had the advantage of being Martin's hometown club, which held appeal to him in the final season of his career; he's announced he expects to retire after the 2025 season and reportedly turned down more money elsewhere to pitch his final year close to home. Free agents Hoby Milner (another Fort Worth area native), Shawn Armstrong and Jacob Webb signed for $2.5MM, $1.25MM and $1.25MM, respectively.

Meanwhile, the free agents who've bid farewell to the Rangers seem to be in demand. Leclerc commanded a $10MM guarantee on a one-year deal with the A's. Yates has reached a tentative agreement with the Dodgers, though financial terms are not yet clear and he's not yet taken his physical. The aggressive market for late-inning arms figures to allow Robertson to cash in on an eight-figure salary. Chafin has garnered interest from the Yankees and Cubs at varying points this winter and is surely talking to other teams as the market for relievers heats up. In the past week alone, we've seen Tanner Scott, Yates, Paul Sewald and A.J. Minter reach free agent agreements. The markets for Carlos Estevez and Kyle Finnegan are picking up. The Cubs are talking to the Astros about Ryan Pressly.

Yates' agreement with the Dodgers rankled many Rangers fans who'd hoped they could bring the 37-year-old back as a finishing piece to the bullpen revamp. Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young, however, has indicated that while the door is still cracked for another acquisition, the bulk of the team's heavy lifting has likely been completed.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported Wednesday that the Rangers never made a formal offer to Yates, recognizing where his market was headed while they faced payroll constrictions from ownership. Per Grant, if the Rangers add to the 'pen, it'd likely have to come via the trade market. They're about $6MM shy of the luxury-tax threshold, per Roster Resource, and staying under that $241MM cutoff is said to be a priority for the Rangers.

It's always possible they could strike gold on another Yates-sized reclamation project; Kendall Graveman and Scott Barlow are among the buy-low candidates with some track record as a successful late-inning reliever. Generally speaking, however, if the Rangers want to add a solid closing option, they're not going to find one for under $6MM in free agency.

With that in mind, let's run through some possible options for Young, GM Ross Fenstermaker and their staff as they peruse the market in hopes of adding one more high-leverage option.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 2:30pm Central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

 

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MLB Mailbag: Flaherty, Nationals, Sasaki, Pirates, Giants, Twins

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This week's mailbag covers how free agent righty Jack Flaherty might approach his current situation, whether Alex Bregman makes sense for the Nationals, accusations of the Dodgers having a predetermined deal for Roki Sasaki, low-cost right field options for the Pirates, how the Giants could fit in a bat, a comparison of Jordan Montgomery, Taijuan Walker, and Marcus Stroman, why the Twins collapsed, and much more.

Lance asks:

It's somewhat surprising to see Jack Flaherty kind of iced out, up to this point, in free agency given the urgency and value placed on quality starting pitching. Would he be in line for a 'better' contract if he opted for a long-term (5-yr) contract at a lower AAV than expected/preferred versus opting for a short-term contract that could see him saddled with a Qualifying Offer next offseason?

I'm seeing a bit of a Carlos Rodon parallel here.  Rodon had an awesome breakout 2021 with the White Sox and hit the market without a qualifying offer, but with a dubious health track record.  So he took two years and $44MM from the Giants with an opt-out, had an even better season, got the QO, and still landed a $162MM deal.

Rodon's Giants contract came after the lockout, and that was an unorthodox winter for all free agents.  But he was only 29 at the time, and I imagine he had lower-AAV longer-term offers like you mentioned for Flaherty.  If so, he made himself a lot of money by not taking that type of deal.

That worked out so well for Rodon because he dominated in 2022.  Flaherty would need to stay healthy and pitch well in 2025 to get the $100MM+ deal he's likely seeking.  He doesn't turn 30 until October, so he's in a good position to take a short-term deal (with opt-outs if it's multiyear) and go back to the market even with the QO.  If he really wanted to be strategic, he could sign with a team that is likely to trade him at the deadline, and dodge the QO again.  If Flaherty's 2025 is decent but not great, he could also consider accepting a QO.

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