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What Might It Cost To Extend Brenton Doyle?

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Brenton Doyle has been one of the brightest spots amidst a terrible two-year run for the Rockies. The former fourth-round pick has emerged as a quality everyday center fielder. Doyle has won Gold Gloves in each of his first two MLB seasons. The defense was the only value he provided as a rookie, as he was arguably the league's worst regular hitter in 2023. He took a huge step forward in his sophomore season to break out as a quality all-around contributor.

Doyle hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs across 603 plate appearances last season. That's essentially league average offense according to park-adjusted metrics that account for Coors Field. That's a major leap from his .203/.250/.343 showing as a rookie. Doyle would be an All-Star caliber player if he can simply maintain league average production at the plate. He leads all outfielders in Statcast's Outs Above Average since making his debut. Only Daulton Varsho has more Defensive Runs Saved. Doyle is probably a top three defensive outfielder in the game. He went 30-35 on stolen base attempts last year.

Last season's offensive strides came with a real change in process. The right-handed hitter had a markedly improved plate discipline profile. He cut his strikeout rate by almost 10 percentage points. After fanning 35% of the time during his rookie season, he struck out at a 25.4% clip last year. He chased fewer pitches off the plate and increased his walk rate by a couple points. Among players with 400+ plate appearances in each season, only Red Sox's catcher Connor Wong had a bigger improvement in his strikeout rate. No one took a more significant step forward than Doyle in making contact on a per-pitch basis.

That presents an interesting evaluation. The bullish case is that it demonstrates Doyle's capacity to make offensive adjustments, perhaps hinting at an even higher ceiling as he enters his third season against big league pitching. On the other hand, it's fair to wonder if last year's improvement is entirely sustainable. Players don't always progress linearly. Doyle's numbers tailed off in the second half, especially in September. He still made far more contact late last season than he had as a rookie, but his .234/.274/.407 line coming out of the All-Star Break is far below the .276/.343/.471 mark he carried into it.

Even amidst their rebuild, the Rockies have prioritized locking up players they consider key pieces. They've had mixed results on that front. The Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland extensions haven't panned out. Ryan McMahon's production has been up-and-down. Last spring's $63MM investment in Ezequiel Tovar looks like the best of the bunch, as the 23-year-old shortstop had a strong second full season in the majors.

Is Doyle next in line? Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote a couple weeks ago that Colorado has had some internal conversations about the possibility. What kind of prices could the team and Doyle's camp at the Ballengee Group discuss?

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat With Steve Adams: Today, 3pm CT

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MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively or Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!

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The Phillies’ Next Rotation Extension Candidate

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On the transaction front, Spring Training's arrival opens extension season. Teams and players are free to talk extensions at any time of year, but it's most common in the lead-up to the start of the regular season. While most of those deals are for players early in their careers, there have been a few high-profile impending free agents (e.g. Rafael Devers, Ian Happ) who have recently signed extensions in the run-up to their platform years.

The Phillies pulled off the biggest extension of that ilk last spring. They kept Zack Wheeler off the market on a three-year term at a record-setting $42MM average annual value. That came a few months after the Phils brought back Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract early in free agency. For the third straight season, they're faced with the possibility of losing one of their most valuable pitchers to the open market.

Ranger Suárez is headed into his final year of club control. He and the Phillies already agreed to an $8.8MM salary to avoid arbitration. The question now is whether they want to initiate talks on a longer-term contract to try to keep him off next winter's open market. What kind of offer might that take, and how well-positioned are the Phils for another extended pitching investment?

Suárez, who turned 29 last August, has been a mid-rotation presence for three years running. The southpaw had an earned run average between 3.46 and 4.18 in each season from 2022-24. He turned in a cumulative 3.74 mark across 431 innings over that stretch. Suárez has fanned a league average 21.5% of opposing hitters against an 8% walk rate. He has kept the ball on the ground at a robust 52.2% clip while allowing a lower than average hard contact rate in each season.

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MLB Mailbag: Yankees, Arenado, Adolis, Orioles, Red Sox, Bohm, Robert

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This week's mailbag gets into the Yankees and Nolan Arenado, whether Adolis Garcia will bounce back, the Orioles' position player surplus, possible Red Sox extensions, fits for Alec Bohm, a pair of hypothetical trade offers, and more.

Ralph asks:

Why are we seeing so many ideas for trades if the Yankees are so close to the threshold? If does not seem that anyone wants to take salary off of the Yankees, so how could they afford Bregman, Arenado or anyone else?

George asks:

The Yankees and Nolan Arenado seem like great fits for each other. Arenado at third would be an upgrade defensively, and he teams back up with Goldy. Jazz moves back to second. With Volpe at short, the infield should be sound defensively.

I know Mo turned down an Arenado for Stroman swap, but perhaps he might reconsider a trade involving Stroman as Spring Training arrives. The Cardinals were rumored to be interested in Clayton Beeter maybe a year or so ago. Also, they could use a right-handed bat.

Do see any pathway forward for a trade that satisfies the needs of both teams?

Daniel asks:

Will the Yankees eventually make a deal for Arenado and dump Stroman to the Cards?

The Yankees' competitive balance tax payroll sits around $305MM, according to RosterResource.  So they're already over the last threshold and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar added.  Back in May, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner famously said, "Look, I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially."  So while the Yankees had a CBT payroll of $316MM in 2024, it's fair to suggest they won't go much higher and might simply subtract.

It's worth keeping in mind that Stroman is not directly tied to Arenado.  The Yankees may simply eat, say, $10-12MM of the $18MM owed to him and enjoy the salary and tax savings.

We touched on this last week, but reporting this offseason has suggested the Yankees' interest in Arenado ranges from non-existent to modest.  Yesterday, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote, "The New York Yankees have continued to check in on Arenado as well, league sources said, but payroll concerns from both organizations have made a trade unlikely at this point."

Arenado's situation seems more tied to Alex Bregman and the Red Sox than anything to do with the Yankees.  Regarding the financial aspect, two days ago, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote, "It’s become apparent how teams want the ticking clock to pressure the Cardinals into covering more salary than the $15 million-$20 million they have expected."

Before the Cardinals kick in a dime, Arenado's CBT hit is somewhere below $21.33MM per year, since A) the Rockies are paying $10MM of his remaining $74MM and B) $12MM is deferred without interest until 2032.  We can use $20MM as an estimate here.

There are two related complications with Arenado.  The first: how is he going to perform over the next three years?  Some projection systems say he'll stick right around 3 WAR in 2025.  On the other end, the aforementioned The Bat X puts him at 1.4 WAR.  Wherever you project for '25, Arenado's age-34 season, you'd factor in further decline for his age-35 and 36 campaigns.

In his recent chat, Derrick Goold wrote, "[The Yankees] want to take on the player but have the Cardinals take on the financial risk that Arenado would repeat this past year. That way it was all upside for the Yankees with the 'value' of Arenado's performance. They would be on the hook for what they considered the cost of him producing like he did in 2024, and the Cardinals would cover the rest."

I'd love to sit down with Brian Cashman and unpack that, because Arenado was worth 2.5 WAR per Baseball-Reference and 3.1 WAR per FanGraphs.  Looking at various free agent position players who signed for one year, such as Gleyber Torres, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, and Max Kepler, the market has paid these types roughly $5-9MM per projected WAR.

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Which Teams Should Still Sign A Free Agent Starter?

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Spring training is beginning to kick off around the league, and as is perennially the case, there are a handful of notable free agents still looking for homes. That's of particular importance for the group of starting pitchers who still remain unsigned. Over the years, we've typically (not always) seen late-signing hitters struggle less than late-signing pitchers. Starting pitchers, in particular, seem to benefit from a full, gradual ramp-up rather than the sort of accelerated build that inherently comes with a mid-March signing.

Nick Pivetta stands as the most notable starter who's yet to find a landing spot. He's surely been impacted by the qualifying offer that's hanging over his head. Any team other than the incumbent Red Sox would need to forfeit at least one draft pick (possibly two, depending on CBT status) in order to sign the longtime Boston righty. Others still on the market include veteran mid-rotation or back-end starters Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Ross Stripling, Lance Lynn and Patrick Corbin -- just to name some. (A full list can be seen here.)

This time of year, there's plenty of talk about teams that still need to add an arm. That can take different shapes, however. I wrote about the Mets' rotation for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers last week, but the Mets aren't necessarily the type of team that needs to go out and add an innings eater to step into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. They have myriad options there already. Any addition for them, presumably, would be a clear-cut playoff starter. It's a similar situation with the Orioles, Cubs, Blue Jays and many other postseason hopefuls. Other clubs, like the Tigers and Pirates, have a mostly set group with a bevy of interesting young, MLB-ready top prospects knocking on the door. Signing Quintana or Gibson to eat innings likely isn't in the cards for teams in either of these groups.

At this stage of the offseason, some of those available free agents might need to wait for a spring injury or a trade to create the opportunity they seek. But there are still teams around the league that are rather clearly in need of some steady innings in the Nos. 3-5 spots in the rotation. Let's run through some clubs that have the need and, as crucially, the budget (or lack thereof) to add an established veteran arm to the back of the staff.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat With Steve Adams: Today, 3pm CT

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MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat with today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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The Mets Haven’t Done Enough With Their Rotation

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In nearly every aspect, it's been a banner offseason for the Mets. They signed one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history to the largest contract in North American sports. They brought back a franchise cornerstone their preferred way: a short-term deal that doesn't run the risk of overcommitting long-term. They re-signed the lefty who carried their rotation in the season's second half in what looks like a potential late-blooming breakout. They grabbed one of the most underrated relievers not just in this year's class but throughout the sport in general. Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and A.J. Minter make for a terrific quartet of headline additions, with a broad-reaching swath of depth moves also on the books.

Keeping Manaea was an undeniable boon to Carlos Mendoza's rotation, even if it came at a generally steep cost. As shown in MLBTR's Contract Tracker, Manaea is one of just five starters in the past decade to secure a $25MM AAV over three or more years beginning in his age-33 season or later. Teams generally are loath to commit this type of money in a pitcher's mid-30s, but the left-hander's performance and the bull market for starting pitching early in the winter coalesced to land him (and 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi) a rare contract for pitchers in this age bracket.

The rest of the Mets' moves in the rotation, however, have been lackluster. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns came to Queens with a reputation of eschewing long-term deals from his time heading up the Brewers' baseball operations department. There was some question as to how much of that stemmed from Milwaukee's perennially bottom-third payroll and how much was a philosophical directive from Stearns himself. The two offseasons with Stearns at the helm for the Mets don't represent a large enough sample to say he simply won't go long-term for a pitcher under any circumstances, but signs point to the likelihood that his avoidance of large-scale pitching contracts in his Brewers days wasn't solely a product of owner Mark Attanasio's frugality.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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The Nationals’ Long-Term Payroll Flexibility

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The Nationals have opted for another risk-averse offseason. At the end of last season, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo teased the possibility for an impact lineup addition.

“We need a couple of bats that can hit in the middle of the lineup and take the onus off some of these good young core players and assist them in the run creation of our offense. We have the core players to be middle-of-the-lineup hitters,” Rizzo told MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. That provided some hope that the Nats would make a big free agent push, but that has not come to be.

Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell have been Washington’s biggest lineup acquisitions. Lowe, whom the Nats acquired from Texas for reliever Robert Garcia, has been a well above-average hitter in three consecutive seasons. He’s a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. A reunion with Bell, who has been one of the game’s streakiest hitters throughout his career, on a $6MM free agent deal is less exciting.

Lowe, who will make between $10.3MM and $11.1MM in his penultimate arbitration season, has been Washington’s costliest acquisition for 2025. They took a $9MM flier on Michael Soroka and brought back Trevor Williams for two years and $14MM. They’ve made minimal commitments to Shinnosuke Ogasawara ($3.5MM over two years), Jorge López ($3MM) and Amed Rosario ($2MM). Williams and Ogasawara are the only players to whom they’ve committed multiple years. The latter’s contract pays him like a seventh or eighth starter. Lowe is under arbitration control for another season that could cost upwards of $15MM, but the Nationals could trade or non-tender him if they’re not keen on that price.

It wasn’t the kind of headline-grabbing offseason that suggests the front office felt they were a move or two away from pushing the top three teams in the NL East. They remain the fourth-best team in the division on paper. Lowe could be a legitimate 2-3 win upgrade over last year’s collection of first basemen, who hit just .241/.310/.376. Beyond that, they’re mostly relying on internal improvements.

The Nationals dramatically cut spending during their rebuild. The Lerner family considered selling the franchise and didn’t want to saddle potential buyers with long-term deals. While they’re no longer actively exploring the sale possibility, maybe they haven’t given Rizzo and his front office leeway to make a significant splash.

If that’s the case, the front office’s actions have been understandable if largely unexciting. This roster still seems to be a year away from viable playoff contention. Pursuits of even upper middle tier free agents like Anthony Santander or Sean Manaea were unlikely to change that. They were never going to seriously threaten the Mets, Yankees, etc. on Juan Soto. A top-of-the-rotation arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried might have provided the ceiling boost needed in the rotation, but that requires an ownership group willing to approve a $200MM+ free agent deal.

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