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Cubs To Hire Quintin Berry As Third Base Coach

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The Cubs plan to hire Quintin Berry as third base coach, report Will Sammon, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic. The 39-year-old has spent the past six seasons on the Brewers’ staff, the last four of which have come as first base coach.

Craig Counsell managed in Milwaukee for the first five years of Berry’s coaching tenure. After one season working under Pat Murphy, Berry rejoins Counsell on the North Side. The Cubs moved on from previous third base coach Willie Harris a few weeks ago. Milwaukee has not announced a replacement.

Berry had a 13-year professional playing career and got to the big leagues in parts of five seasons. He was known for his speed and ability to steal bases. That included a perfect 21-21 showing for the Tigers in 2012. That was the only season in which he logged significant MLB playing time, but he bounced around as a quintessential September player. The expanded rosters — teams could carry up to 40 players in September at that time — afforded the flexibility to use him as a designated pinch runner.

Berry won the 2013 World Series with the Red Sox while working in that capacity. He played the same role with the Cubs in 2015. He’ll make a return to Wrigley Field a decade later.

Brewers Decline Mutual Option On Wade Miley

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The Brewers declined their end of a $12MM mutual option on Wade Miley, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. They’ll pay a $1.5MM buyout to send him back to free agency.

It’s an easy call for the team. He’ll miss a good chunk of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. A $12MM salary for Miley would’ve been rich even if he were healthy. The veteran left-hander signed for $8.5MM last winter, taking the form of a $7MM salary and the option buyout. That was after a season in which he turned in a 3.14 ERA over 23 starts. He took the ball just twice this year before his elbow gave out.

Miley has battled injuries in recent years. Elbow and shoulder troubles have hampered him since 2022. When healthy, the 37-year-old (38 next month) has managed strong results despite middling velocity and whiff rates. Miley has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past three seasons in which he has topped 100 innings.

Assuming he’s going to continue pitching, Miley should land an incentive-laden deal. A minor league contract isn’t out of the question, though it wouldn’t be surprising if he secures a base salary in the $2-4MM range with the ability to tack on earnings based on next year’s workload.

Miley’s option is one of a staggering seven decisions involving the Brewers. Rhys Hoskins holds an $18MM player option. Milwaukee has easy calls to exercise team options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea. The Brewers have an option on Devin Williams, who’ll be eligible for arbitration even if they decline it. Frankie Montas, Jakob Junis and Gary Sánchez each have mutual options. They’re all likely to become free agents.

Brewers Retain Pitching Coach Chris Hook On Multi-Year Extension

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The Brewers are retaining pitching coach Chris Hook on a multi-year extension, the team announced this afternoon. He would otherwise have been out of contract on Thursday.

That’ll keep Hook around for a seventh season and beyond. The 56-year-old has been a member of the Milwaukee organization for nearly two decades. He worked through the minor league ranks to pitching coordinator before getting the nod on Craig Counsell’s staff during the 2018-19 offseason. Pat Murphy kept Hook in that role when he took the reins last offseason.

It’s easy to see why the Brewers are retaining him. Milwaukee’s success has generally been built around strong run prevention groups. Over the last six seasons, the Brewers are fifth in earned run average and trail only the Astros in strikeout rate. As is the case with any coach, it’s impossible to know from the outside how much of the credit Hook deserves for those results. Still, the Brewers have had one of the best pitching staffs in MLB for an extended stretch despite rarely making significant free agent moves.

That continued this past season under difficult circumstances. The Brewers traded Corbin Burnes and operated without Brandon Woodruff for the entire year. It was a patchwork rotation beyond Freddy Peralta, especially once Wade Miley and Jakob Junis went down with early injuries, but the Brewers managed a 3.65 ERA that ranked fifth in MLB. Journeyman righty Colin Rea had a career year, while 26-year-old Tobias Myers turned in 138 innings of 3.00 ERA ball after struggling in the upper minors. Milwaukee got serviceable results out of deadline acquisitions Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas (coinciding with a slight velocity bump in Montas’ case).

Milwaukee has made a couple changes to Murphy’s staff on the heels of another NL Central title. The Brewers announced last week that they were parting ways with co-hitting coach Ozzie Timmons and adding Al LeBoeuf and Eric Thiesen to the staff as hitting coaches.

Brewers Hire Al LeBoeuf As Lead Hitting Coach

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The Brewers are shaking up their offensive staff. Milwaukee announced on Monday that they’ve promoted Al LeBoeuf to lead hitting coach. Milwaukee also promoted Eric Theisen to hitting coach. Theisen will work as a co-hitting coach with Connor Dawson, who is returning for a fourth season. Milwaukee has parted ways with former co-hitting coach Ozzie Timmons.

Milwaukee doesn’t technically have any assistant hitting coaches. It seems Dawson and Theisen will essentially work in that capacity while LeBoeuf gets the primary job. It’s the first major league coaching gig for the 64-year-old LeBoeuf, a longtime member of Milwaukee’s minor league ranks. He joined the organization as a Double-A hitting coach in 2010. LeBoeuf worked his way to Triple-A by 2012.

Unfortunately, he experienced crippling lower body pain that year. Testing revealed blood cancer in his left hip. As Adam McCalvy of MLB.com wrote in 2013, the cancer was traced back to a severe bone bruise he’d suffered when he was hit by a pitch while playing in the Phillies’ system back in the mid-1980s. The extremely rare condition slowed LeBouef’s rise up the minor league ranks, but he fortunately beat the disease and worked his way back to coaching Triple-A hitters by 2019.

LeBoeuf has held that role for the past six seasons. He told McCalvy this evening that he recently marked 10 years cancer free and is in “great” health (X link). He’ll now get a long-awaited chance to coach big league hitters. LeBoeuf has already worked with most of Milwaukee’s young core. Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Tyler Black and Brice Turang have all had recent stints in Triple-A. Jackson Chourio essentially skipped the top minor league level, though he did stop there for the final week of 2023.

In addition to his longtime work with Milwaukee, LeBoeuf has coached or managed in the minors with the Phillies, Mets, Royals and Blue Jays. As a player, he topped out at the Triple-A level with the Phils.

Theisen also worked as a co-hitting coach in Triple-A this past season. A former college pitcher with Illinois State, Theisen joined Milwaukee’s minor league ranks in 2021. He has spent the past three seasons as a minor league hitting coordinator in addition to his work as Triple-A hitting coach. This’ll be his first job on a major league staff.

Timmons moves on after three seasons. He had worked on Kevin Cash’s staff with the Rays for a few years before taking the Milwaukee job. The Brewers were an above-average offensive team this year. Milwaukee turned in a .246/.326/.403 batting line. They placed in the top 10 in batting average and on-base percentage while ranking 13th in slugging. They finished sixth in runs scored.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Last offseason, the Brewers lost their manager, traded away their best starting pitcher and lost another to injury. During the season, several more injuries popped up but the club overcame all that adversity to repeat as National League Central champions. They'll now have to overcome a crushing postseason loss, the likely departure of their shortstop and declining broadcast revenue.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $110.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout on '29 mutual option; deal to be paid out through '42 due to deferrals)
  • Jackson Chourio, OF: $78MM through 2031 (including $2MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Aaron Ashby, LHP: $17.25MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Brandon Woodruff, RHP: $15MM through 2025 (including $10MM buyout on '26 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • 1B Rhys Hoskins has $18MM player option for 2025 with $4MM buyout, deal also has $18MM mutual option for 2026 with $4MM buyout
  • Team, RHP Frankie Montas hold $20MM mutual option with $2MM buyout
  • Team, LHP Wade Miley hold $12MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Team holds $10.5MM club option on RHP Devin Williams with a $250K buyout (Williams can be retained via arbitration even if option is declined)
  • Team, C Gary Sánchez hold $11MM mutual option with $4MM buyout
  • Team holds $5.5MM club option on RHP Colin Rea with $1MM buyout
  • Team holds $8MM club option on RHP Freddy Peralta with $1.5MM buyout

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $92.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $265MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Bauers, Wilson, Haase

Free Agents

The Brewers have faced a lot of challenges in the past year. Manager Craig Counsell seemed intent on pushing forward the market for managers, willing to go from Milwaukee to the highest bidder. For a small-market club like the Brewers, they weren't going to get drawn into a bidding war to keep him, so he went to the division rival Cubs as Milwaukee gave his old job to Pat Murphy. Brandon Woodruff required shoulder surgery about this time last year, which put him on ice for all of 2024. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in February.

Some of that was self-imposed, in a sense, but also a reflection of the club's perpetual financial situation. As one of the lower-spending clubs, they often trade their best players just before they get to free agency, with Burnes just the most recent example. That's not to say they were forced to do it, but it's understandable why they make such moves. The trade return is usually much more appealing than holding the player all the way until free agency and, in a best-case scenario, recouping draft compensation after the player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

All of that was before the season even started. Once spring training began, the challenges mounted. Closer Devin Williams was diagnosed with back fractures in March, setting him up to miss roughly the first half of the season. Wade Miley required Tommy John surgery in May, ending his season prematurely. Robert Gasser, called up to help cover for Miley, required his own UCL surgery in June. Christian Yelich didn't play after July 23 due to his lingering back problems, undergoing season-ending surgery in August.

Despite all of that, the Brewers managed to take the division, but fresh challenges now lie ahead. Shortstop Willy Adames is slated to become a free agent, a notable subtraction from their roster. Williams seems likely to be this year's candidate for a trade before reaching free agency, with general manager Matt Arnold recently admitting that the club will have to be "open-minded" about the possibility.

Meanwhile, the club will no longer have a broadcast relationship with Bally Sports/Diamond Sports Group. Their deal with Diamond ended in 2024 and they will now have Major League Baseball handling their broadcasts in direct-to-consumer fashion. Such an arrangement could be beneficial in the long run with the decay of the cable model but it's likely to lead to less revenue in the short term, which could further squeeze a club that always has payroll concerns.

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Brewers Manager Discusses Rotation Options

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The Brewers’ season came to a heartbreaking end last week, as they carried a lead into the ninth inning of their deciding game against the Mets in the Wild Card round, but the Mets put together a late rally and took the series. For Milwaukee, that means the focus has now shifted to 2025 and manager Pat Murphy recently discussed some topics related to the roster, with Curt Hogg rounding them up in a piece for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

One of the players Murphy discusses was Aaron Ashby. The lefty once looked like a budding starting before getting derailed by shoulder issues. He finished 2024 on a strong note out of the bullpen but it seems the skipper hasn’t given up on the possibility of the southpaw being a rotation option again in the future.

“If you’re asking me today if he belongs in that late inning role, I’d say no,” Murphy said. “I’d say he’s more of a candidate to throw more innings because his stuff is pretty special and there’s a variety there. That’s going to be discussed, the path. And it has to be player-driven. The player has to want certain things or at least be in a healthy discussion about it.”

Ashby showed his potential when he first came up to the big leagues. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he tossed 139 innings in a swing role, making 23 starts and 17 relief appearances. He allowed 4.47 earned runs per nine innings but with better peripherals. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.7% rate and kept balls in play on the ground at a 57.8% clip.

The Brewers clearly believed in what was ahead for Ashby, as they signed him to an extension during that 2022 campaign. The five-year deal guaranteed him $20.5MM and also came with club options for 2028 and 2029, valued at $9MM and $13MM respectively, with a $1MM buyout on the first one.

Unfortunately, the first year of that deal was wasted. Ashby dealt with shoulder problems in 2023 and eventually required arthroscopic surgery, not pitching in the majors at all. Here in 2024, Ashby had been relegated to a depth option. He spent most of the first half on optional assignment, being recalled twice to make spot starts.

In late August, Ashby was recalled from the minors and added to the Milwaukee bullpen. He tossed 19 2/3 innings over 12 appearances down the stretch, with excellent results. He had a 1.37 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate.

Given those excellent results, there might be some temptation to just keep Ashby in a relief role, but it’s also understandable that the Brewers haven’t given up on the rotation path. A solid starter is more useful to a club than a good reliever, generally speaking, and the Brewers should be able to put together a bullpen without Ashby’s contributions. Even if Devin Williams is traded, which seems to be on the table, Milwaukee can turn to guys like Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig for key bullpen roles.

The variety that Murphy referred to is indeed present, as Ashby threw five different pitches in the majors this year: a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, curveball and slider. It seems he had a bit of rust in harnessing that arsenal while getting over his lost season in 2023, as he walked 17.4% of batters faced in Triple-A this year while posting an 8.04 ERA. But as mentioned, he was able to get in a good grove by the end of the year.

Going forward, it seems Ashby can still try to carve out a rotation role if he wants one. Also in the rotation mix will be Tobias Myers, who Murphy views as a lock for a job. “In my thoughts, he’s a definite,” Murphy said. “But he’s got to go do it in the offseason. He’s got to come back out, recapture that mentality and recapture the arsenal, which isn’t always easy.”

It’s unsurprising that Myers has earned some job security after his strong performance in 2024. He pitched 138 innings for the Brewers this year with a flat 3.00 ERA. He had a 22.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate. He benefitted a bit from a .282 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate, but even his 3.91 FIP and 3.99 SIERA suggest he would have been solid without as much favor from the baseball gods.

There are some questions for the Brewers to answer in their rotation going forward. Freddy Peralta will be locked into one spot and it seems Myers will as well. Colin Rea posted a 4.29 ERA this year and the Brewers have a $5.5MM club option for 2025 with a $1MM buyout. That makes it a net $4.5MM decision, which is a bargain for a solid back-end starter. Guys like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Luis Severino got one-year deals worth between $11MM and $13MM last offseason. The Brewers themselves gave $8.5MM to Wade Miley, though he unfortunately required Tommy John surgery early in the year.

Aaron Civale can be retained for 2025 but he will cost more than Rea. He’s eligible for arbitration and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8MM next year. Given the aforementioned prices for back-end starters, that’s reasonable for Civale, who had a 4.36 ERA in 31 starts this year. But the Brewers generally work with tight budgets and might have less TV revenue coming in next year, so perhaps they might explore the trade market.

DL Hall is another option, as he worked both out of the rotation and bullpen in 2024. But he missed a lot of time due to a left knee sprain and wasn’t able to pile up a big sample of work. He finished the year with a 5.02 ERA across seven starts and six relief appearances.

Another big question mark will be Brandon Woodruff, who missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery. He’s under contract for 2025 but he’ll be a great unknown for next year, likely until spring training rolls around. Robert Gasser could return late next year after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. Jacob Misiorowski is one of the best pitching prospects in the league and he finished the year at Triple-A, but he also walked 14.4% of batters faced on the year and might still need some fine tuning.

Between Peralta, Myers, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Rea, Civale and Misiorowski, the Brewers have eight potential rotation options, though the long winter ahead could change the picture via additions or subtractions.

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Outfielders

Pitchers

GM: Brewers To Stay “Open-Minded” On Possibility Of Trading Devin Williams

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold held a press conference today on the heels of the club being eliminated from the playoffs last week. Arguably the most notable thing he said was in relation to closer Devin Williams. “We have to stay open-minded,” Arnold said, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in this.”

Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.

Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.

Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.

The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.

Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.

Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.

Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.

Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.

The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.

A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.

The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.

Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.

Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.

Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.

Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.

MLB To Take Over Broadcasts For Twins, Guardians, Brewers In 2025

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Major League Baseball announced that it will take over the distribution of local broadcasts for the Twins, Guardians and Brewers in 2025. All three of those clubs previously had deals with Diamond Sports Group, which owns the Bally Sports Networks. But those deals all expired after 2024 and it was reported this week that Diamond is planning to make cutbacks to the number of teams on its slate of baseball broadcasts.

MLB will now be handling the broadcasts of at least six clubs, as it was already distributing for the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies. Fans will be able to sign up for direct-to-consumer streaming packages without blackouts, except for games that are being broadcasted nationally. The Rangers also saw their Diamond deal expire in 2024 but seem to be in a different situation for now. MLB announced that Texas wouldn’t be continuing with Diamond but are exploring local options for 2025.

The Regional Sports Network model has been decaying for many years and this news is latest part of the crumbling. For years, broadcasters would pay clubs for the right to have exclusive local broadcasting rights, which would often lead to frustration among fans. Baseball games were harder to access and some fans found themselves in the blackout areas of multiple different teams. However, these deals were a significant source of annual revenue for teams.

But as consumers cut cords and move away from buying cable packages, the model has been less effective and several deals have already fallen apart. Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process since early in 2023. As mentioned, the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies didn’t have a local broadcasting deal for 2024. The Padres and Diamondbacks had previously been with Diamond while the Rockies were with AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain. Fans in those markets were able to pay MLB directly to watch the team in 2024, with no blackouts, for $19.99 per month or $99.99 for the year. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays on X that the Twins will be charging a similar price next year.

While that was a nice development for many fans, it wasn’t good for the teams. By all accounts, the revenue generated from this model is lower than what the clubs were previously receiving from the cable model, as the latter led to a passive stream of revenue from fans who signed up for cable packages but didn’t watch much or any baseball. The direct-to-consumer model cuts out the middleman but is dependent on active fan interest.

The MLB announcement today says that the “reach” of the Guardians via RSN was 1.45 million homes, with the Twins at 1.08 million. The league relays that between four and five million homes will now have access to their local clubs via these streaming options, but not all of them will sign up and it’s unclear what sort of rates are to be expected. Twins president Dave St. Peter expects the club to receive less broadcast revenue in 2025, per Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic on X, though he added that he expects greater revenue in the future.

In short, the move is good for fans in terms of simply watching the games. But since it’s bad for the teams on the business side, it could have spillover effects into roster construction. Last offseason, declining broadcast revenue seemed to have significant ripple effects in terms of transactions. The Padres trading Juan Soto to the Yankees, for instance, seemed to be motivated by the Friars needing to make budget cuts. Teams like the Rangers, Twins and others either cut their payrolls or didn’t raise them as much as expected, which led to certain free agents having fewer suitors than anticipated and a weak market for free agents in general.

Whether this will have an immediate impact on the decisions of the Twins, Guardians and Brewers will remain to be seen. The Twins already cut their payroll significantly a year ago in the wake of uncertainty with Diamond. There was seemingly some chance of the deal collapsing before the Twins re-signed for another year but with reduced fees. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the payroll went from $154MM in 2023 to $127MM in 2024. Per recent reporting, the club isn’t planning further payroll cuts but it doesn’t appear as though an increase is coming either. Per Gleeman on X, St. Peter doesn’t think this news impacts the payroll relative to those recent reports as the club already knew this was coming.

The Rangers appear to be exploring a different path. Last month, it was reported by Tom Friend of the Sports Business Journal that the club is looking into developing their own direct-to-consumer streaming service, independent of MLB. Presumably, the benefit to handling it themselves would mean they reap more direct revenue, but they would also spend more on the day-to-day costs of running the operation. If they eventually find this path too challenging, it seems fair to assume that letting MLB take over would be a fallback option.

Uncertainty around the broadcast situation seemed to impact the Rangers last year. Though they won the 2023 World Series, they followed that up with a relatively modest offseason, not signing any deals larger than the two years and $22MM they gave to Tyler Mahle. How their current plan will play out perhaps has even less certainty than the other three clubs, so it will be an interesting situation to watch.

There will be other long-term questions to be answered in time. Commissioner Rob Manfred intends to market a streaming package consisting of multiple teams at some point in the future, perhaps as soon as 2025. MLB.TV has existed for years but with consumers affected by local blackout rules. The idea going forward would be to essentially make a blackout-free version of MLB.TV. There would be complications in such a plan, as clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and others handle their own games via broadcasters that are at least partially owned by the team. Given their relatively stable footing, they would have less interest in joining such a plan with the other clubs.

As for Diamond, they had deals with 12 clubs in 2024. It was recently revealed that they are only fully committed to one for 2025, which is Atlanta. As part of that reporting last week, Diamond was apparently willing to renegotiate with other clubs but wanted to pay reduced fees. It seems that won’t happen with the four clubs mentioned in today’s announcement, so the Diamond slate will be down to a maximum of eight clubs in 2025 but perhaps that will go even lower of some others decide to make a deal like this with MLB instead.

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