Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.
Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.
Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.
Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.
Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.
As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.
That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.
That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.
Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.
Someone will overpay.
The QO is an overpay.
1 year deals are worth overpaying for. Then factor in the fact he probably won’t accept it. Gotta make the offer.
Lark
QO is not an overpay. If I owned a team needing a 1B, I would pay Walker 2025 $23 2026 $18 2027 $15 2028 $12 or four years for $68 million.
23 per for 2025 feels right in todays market if there were no penalties. He seems like someone who the QO could kill his market though. His age is already a limiting factor for a long term deal. Add in the QO penalties and could see him getting low balled or ignores by teams despite being a quality first basemen.
I wouldn’t want $68 million tied up in a 32 year-old that plays the easiest position to fill. That is why baseball is fun. Some organizations value players and positions more than others.
4/68 wouldn’t shock me at all these days but I wouldn’t be shocked if his contract looks more like 3/50, but that’s more a function of his age and amount of his comes from defense, than how good he projects to be going into 2025. He’s a good first basemen defensively and has a good bat. The main hangup for him would be age unless he gets a QO which could very well kill his value completely.
A mid-order bat for 21.05M for GG defense and 25+ HR averaging 3.6 WAR/season over last 3 years, when the downside is a comp pick…sounds pretty easy to me. They could move Joc to 1B, at the very least, if he bolts.
Joc to first lmao
@RunDMC—Yup, a no-brainer
The question the Dbacks have to answer is can they get that production for less with a platoon. They don’t have the resources of LA or NY.
This is a tough call. Is he trade able on a $1/21MM salary? Only a contender with a 1B need would be willing to take that on if he accepts. I’m seeing the Yankees or Astros as the only real possibilities for that. I’m assuming San Diego wouldn’t put that much money out.
I’d accept if I were Walker at this point. Josh Bell did a nice job for AZ and finding him a platoon partner would be way less costly.
He could be a great option for those losing out on the Alonso sweeps.
Easy yes.
Super easy yes!
Absolutely a no brainer here. A QO and he’ll decline. He deserves the pay check, he has been an excellent defensive piece at 1B with pop. Too streaky in my opinion, but still a terrific replacement for Goldy.
Not if they QO him. It’ll reduce his price tag even more. 3/$55m
He’ll be 34 at the start of next season. If Arizona thinks it’s worth keeping him around for another season, then I guess it’s okay to QO him. But it’s probably a bit risky.
I find it hard to believe anyone will sign him for more than 3 years, and I don’t see his contract reaching $60 million—especially if it means losing a draft pick.
Maybe they QO him, then negotiate a 3-year deal worth $45-$50 million.
You 100% offer the QO. Last year Rhys Hoskins received a 2yr/$34M deal coming off significant injury and worse production.
If he signs, you are happy to pay $21M next year for a likely 3-4 WAR season and you don’t take long term deterioration risk.
If he declines, you get a favorable negotiation position where you either get an extra pick or you resign him for slightly more than what another team offers (which will be lowered by the cost of giving up a pick).
I think likely he ends up coming back for a deal between 3yr/$60-75M. Personally, I’d rather have Walker on a high AAV 2 to 3 year deal over a long 5-7 year deal for Alonso.
Alonso impacts a teams tenacity and turns games around.
Walker seems like nice transitional player for a young, small or mid-market team such as the Pirates. He’s a consistent player and a professional. His play at 1B could settle the infield. O’S might be interested for 2 years if they can move Mountcastle and the new owner increases the payroll. Don’t think Walker wants to go to a rebuilding team or a screwed up one like the White Sox or Angels.
Rhys Hoskins was just what I wrote – a transitional big bat for a young team that’s starting to contend. In his case the Brewers knew he would primarily be a DH. In 2 years he’ll
be gone….maybe even at the trade deadline in 2025.
Large market and bigger mid-market teams usually have
a big bat at 1B or are discussing moving another position player there that makes a nice salary.
Starting to contend? The brewers have made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years. They haven’t started anything, they’ve been one of the league’s most consistently good teams over nearly the last decade.
Samuel’s always gonna Samuel I suppose.
herecomethephillies2018;
Apparently you didn’t notice., the Brewers ripped their team apart, with the GM (Stearns leaving as well as the manager. Veterans were moved and the roster was turned over to young players. Rhys was brought in as a veteran for the 2024 season, Qith the exception of Willy Adames, all of the Brewers position players were youngster in 2024.
Sometimes I make the mistake that readers understand what teams are doing. If I have to explain it they can’t follow and then get upset when I do.
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In retrospect, 2 teams that Walker would be good for going into 2025 would be the Nationals and the Reds. Both could use a stable veteran power bat in the middle of the order.
The Reds especially look good if the owner would up the payroll some. Francona can possibly get that team to the playoffs in 2025, almost surely in 2026. Walker would be a huge addition for them.
The Reds don’t need another infielder. The Nationals would make a lot of sense if they want to move towards genuinely contending, but don’t want to make a long term commitment.
However, the list of teams that should have interest in Walker is very long: Yankees, Mariners, Royals, Astros, Pirates, Nationals, Mets, Diamondbacks and Giants.
I don’t get the Alonso narrative. What, he hits fly balls a lot and swings like he’s angry? That skilleset doesn’t just ‘turn a game around’. I’d take Walker on a two year deal over Alonso on the same deal even now. In some of the stats that might seem to show ‘aging’, though they may be cherrypicked, Walker still tops Alonso. These are stats like range factor, sprint speed, bat speed, and hard hit rate. You’d think Alonso might dominate Walker in one or more of these. Walker wins them all. Let Pete slow down in his 20s. I can wait for Walker to slow down when he’s 36 or 37. He’s earned the payday and the opportunity.
Ummm, maybe that Yelich guy plus Adames and Hoskins. In fact, in 2023, the Brewers had the 7th highest average age among 30 MLB teams.
Agree. Candalario, Steer, ES, France, Stephenson and Castellini’s wallet.
Would shock me to see the Pirates put out that much cash.
Don’t think he fits on the Royals with Pasquantino and Salvy taking some DH AB’s. NYM, NYY, Houston could make some sense. But Houston has hinted at not adding on another significant salary.
Mariners could use him but that could be a prohibitive price point. Nats would work if they feel like they’re ready for the next step but I think that they may want a longer term piece to spend on at this point.
Walker doesn’t need DH days and Pasquantino hasn’t been a good enough player to not be replaceable. Walker would be a significant offensive and defensive upgrade at 1B for the Royals.
Pirates would be surprising, but are also close enough and did spend big on Chapman on one year deal last year to see a path to a shorter term deal with high AAV.
If it’s 2 year ( Walker) and 7 year (Alonso), I agree.
Yea I would definetely extend QO. Really nothing to lose. I don’t know if I’d pay more than 3yr/$60 mil because of age. Solid player though
Gotta make him an offer. 1 year deal are always tolerable and he’s been very consistent over the last few years. He probably won’t accept.
You could sign Goldy back cheaper would be another option
Goldy would be cheaper and worse.
Lol Pete Alonso isn’t in the top 4 in war by 1st basemen
That’s OK. Man’s got a career 900 + OPS in playoffs. That’ll work!
Yes. Given Walker’s consistent production, defensive value, and the fact that the QO is a short-term commitment, it makes sense to extend the QO, especially since it provides flexibility (either retaining Walker or getting draft compensation). However, his age and injury history make it a bit of a gamble.
He’ll decline QO. Although his yearly avg will be less than QO hes looking for years n total amount. This is his last chance to get biggest piece of pie he can cause he’s only getn older. Dude wrecks the Dodgers.
Monty and Erod for 130M will set the Dbacks back a couple years.
They could have spend that money on the hitting side.
Erod and Monty were clearly not the right 2 guys but you can’t tell me that rotation didn’t need additions. Coming into the year they had 3 guys who you’d want in a ML rotation. Pfaadt, Gallen, and Kelly.
Nelson has turned into a decent backend starter but they certainly needed () pitching.
Walker is worth a one year/$21M risk. He won’t accept it. He’ll get a little less per year on a multi-year contract, but he’ll have more guaranteed money. He’ll be in good demand (but age tempers his interest), so he’s probably looking at a three year deal at $17M-$19M per season. Can add a little to the guarantee with a fourth year option with a buyout…
I’m surprised to see this low of a price estimate. Hoskins coming off a lost season and had a similar batter profile with terrible defense received a 2yr/$34M deal with a player option on the 2nd year. Walker will completely lap that deal. If he goes for a 1 or 2 year deal I think he pushes $25M+ AAV (especially if Teo got 1yr/$23M coming off his down year with the M’s). 3 years probably becomes a team option or reduces the AAV considerably.
Definitely risk giving him the QO. If he takes it it probably is a slight overpay as he probably is a 110-120 wrc+ bat but it is only one year and the dbacks don’t have any mlb ready Alternative in the minors.
Also if he rejects it you get the extra pick which is great.
This is a no brainer for me, the chance you get the pick if he rejects plus the chance you get a slightly above average 1b man if he takes it is probably worth overpaying him by 5 millions. And any Alternatives you can get in a 1 year deal is likely worse than walker.
The only reason you don’t offer him and save the money if you plan to either sign a high profile 1b or you do a Blockbuster trade for a 1b. But saving the 20 mil for walker to sign a worse Alternative like Carlos Santana or rowdy tellez for a year and 10 mil doesn’t really make sense unless you plan to “tank” 1b and just put a bad player there and hope the saved money makes the team better in another place. But I don’t like to do that, you rarely see a good playoff team completely tanking 1b, that’s where you want some production.
Domingo
You wrote that Walker is “a slightly above average 1b man”????
You mean to tell us that a soon-to-be third straight year Gold Glove 1b, who consistently hits 30+ HR and has 100 RBI is “slightly above average”? Do you mean slightly above average for all 1b or slightly above the average Hall of Fame 1b?
I’m NOT saying Walker is a Hall of Famer, but I am saying his statistical averages for the past 3 years track closer to HoF 1b than they do to average 1b in the league right now!
I really think the Rangers will sign Paul Goldschmidt he would be a really good DH and Righty bat for Texas.
Extending to QO to Walker should be a no-brainer. Whoever doesn’t get/isn’t willing to pay Alonso should be in on him
Don’t care about his age the dude can absolutely play. Hoping my Nats give him 4/$80 we want him in dc bad
Arizona needs to re-sign him. 2-3 years.
My concern if the Dbacks don’t re-sign Walker is that the infield defense will suffer. Walker saves so many errant throws/short hops to 1b, He single handedly makes the Dbacks infield defense elite. Without him the defense will take a step back.
So I agree with Suffer that the Dbacks need to sign Walker to a 2-3 year deal after offering him the QO.
he deserves to be in Arizona! He is a great fielder and a really good hitter. They will pay him!
Can’t call Hazen a good GM when spending 130M for Erod and Monty!
After Hazen blundered Strom learned the Blueprint from Roger Beshens, teach that football slider ALL through the organization so AAA will be prepared better. The Major club suffered with pitchers that had no business being there. Strom had guys that came up with NO COMMAND and with better development those guys would be released or AA or lower.
I hope he’s no longer in the nl west next year
D’backs wasted money on Monty and EROD. D’backs realized AFTER those signings they aren’t even the type pitchers they want now. That’s horrible Front Office decision making. They got playoff money, wasted it, fired Strom who got undeveloped pitchers with no command, another inept Front Office blunder.
Kendrick doesn’t know baseball.
Hazen wants to be a pitching coach and make decisions with his analytic nerds. Lovullo can’t manage AT ALL.
I’ve always heard there is no such thing as a bad 1-year deal. Extend the qualifying offer, if he takes it, you have another year to evaluate and possibly sign a longer extension. The D-Backs could also flip him at the trade deadline if they are not in contention. If he rejects the qualifying offer than you get a draft pick.
I’d easily extend the QO. He’s worth around 20M AAV anyway, plus I doubt he’d accept it (even though he wants to stay in Arizona). He has a 3-year deal out there for around 60M, so he will not accept the QO. And if he does, the short-term nature of the agreement would be a solid move for the DBacks. They didn’t even mention his importance in the clubhouse. A great leader, in addition to his power and defense. It’s a no-brainer.
1 year 21m is fine for him. So if he accepts as long as the dbacks can afford that then it’s a fine deal.
He probably declines and gets more overall money at a lower aav. A team will likely give him a 3-4 year deal (4 to lowers the aav more), I could see 3 for 45-50m, or 4 for 55-60. The issue he may have is draft pick. Several teams may not want to lose the draft pick. Also with the tv deals falling apart it will limit his market. I could see the Mets, Yankees, giants or dbacks. His market is pretty limited and he will need to compete with Alonso in that market. I think Alonso stays with the Mets and Walker signs with the Giants.
I like him as a possible Alonso replacement for the Mets
And probably cheaper too, even though he’s older. In some of the stats that might seem to show ‘aging’, though they may be cherrypicked, Walker still tops Alonso. These are stats like range factor, sprint speed, bat speed, and hard hit rate. You’d think Alonso might dominate Walker in one or more of these. Walker wins them all.
Dbacks should have kept Strom and had Roger Beshens Football Slider be a rover teaching his Football Slider.
There shouldn’t be a comma before “either.”