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Rangers Rumors

Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler

By Jeff Todd | December 4, 2019 at 7:07am CDT

There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.

With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.

In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.

This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.

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Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies Texas Rangers Zack Wheeler

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Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

By Jeff Todd | December 3, 2019 at 3:37pm CDT

3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

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Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Minnesota Twins Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Zack Wheeler

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Rangers Met Recently With Anthony Rendon

By Connor Byrne | December 3, 2019 at 8:01am CDT

The Rangers missed the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, but with a new ballpark set to open next season, it appears they’re serious about returning to contention immediately. The Rangers gave right-handed starter Kyle Gibson a three-year, $30MM guarantee last week, though that deal could pale in comparison to the highest award they dole out this winter. The club’s in pursuit of the best free-agent position player on the market in third baseman Anthony Rendon, as it met with him and agent Scott Boras in Houston on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The Rangers haven’t made a contract offer yet, per Grant, but “several executives” have indicated they’re the favorites to sign him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today sports tweets.

Signing Rendon would likely mean doling out a guarantee well above $200MM, though it could help the Rangers’ cause that he’s a Texas native. Rendon’s by far the best unsigned third baseman in the game, but between their interest in him and Josh Donaldson, it’s clear the Rangers are serious about finding their first great option at the position since potential Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre retired after the 2018 season.

Texas, however, isn’t just considering a splash at the hot corner. Rather, the Rangers could pick up yet another high-profile starter even after signing Gibson. It’s “believed” that they’ve recently met with free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, according to Grant. Wheeler, who could cost around $100MM in free agency, would add another formidable arm to a rotation that has taken an obvious step forward with the acquisition of Gibson. Those two would presumably join Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Kolby Allard to give the Rangers a rather imposing top five heading into 2020.

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Newsstand Texas Rangers Anthony Rendon Zack Wheeler

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Teams Announce Final Non-Tenders

By Jeff Todd | December 2, 2019 at 8:57pm CDT

We’ve been tracking the day’s arbitration decisions in the run-up to tonight’s deadline, which has produced a bevy of last-minute calls. In addition to those already covered elsewhere (with all projected salary figures from MLBTR/Matt Swartz projections) …

  • The Padres announced they have non-tendered Miguel Diaz and Pedro Avila. Neither hurler had yet been eligible for arbitration, so this amounts to no more than a roster cleanup. Avila had already been designated for assignment. Diaz, meanwhile, saw extensive action as a Rule V pick in 2017 but has only sporadically logged MLB time since.
  • Relievers Javy Guerra and Koda Glover were non-tendered by the Nationals, per a club announcement. Guerra would have cost a projected $1.3MM. Glover announced earlier today that he would retire.
  • The Red Sox non-tendered infielder Marco Hernandez and reliever Josh Osich, per a team announcement. Neither projected at big dollars — $700K and $1.0MM, respectively — but obviously the club felt it could put the roster spots to better use on other players.
  • The Blue Jays have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Jason Adam, along with backstop Luke Maile. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter) and Scott Mitchell of TSN (on Twitter) were on the news. Law projected at $1.3MM, while Maile was in line for a $800K payday. Adam is still pre-arb eligible.
  • The Giants announced today that they have non-tendered outfielder Joey Rickard ($1.1MM projection), southpaw Tyler Anderson ($2.625MM), and righty Rico Garcia (pre-arb). Both Anderson and Garcia were claimed from the division-rival Rockies after the end of the 2019 season.
  • In addition to other moves earlier today, the Braves have non-tendered catcher John Ryan Murphy and outfielder Rafael Ortega. Each provided depth down the stretch in 2019 for the Atlanta organization. Murphy would’ve been owed a projected $1.2MM, while Ortega remains shy of arbitration eligibility.
  • A host of players were non-tendered by the Royals, per a club announcement. Righty Jesse Hahn was cut loose along with infielders Humberto Arteaga, Cheslor Cuthbert and Erick Mejia. Among these players, Hahn (projected $900K) and Cuthbert ($1.8MM) have the most MLB experience. With these 40-man trimmings, the K.C. org should be able to place some claims and/or make Rule 5 selections in the coming weeks.
  • Righties Ian Gibaut and Wei-Chieh Huang are each heading to free agency after being non-tendered by the Rangers. Neither is anywhere near the service time needed for arbitration eligibility, so this was just an opportune time for the Texas org to drop them from the MLB roster.
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Colorado Rockies Kansas City Royals San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Washington Nationals Cheslor Cuthbert Derek Law Humberto Arteaga Ian Gibaut Jason Adam Javy Guerra Jesse Hahn Joey Rickard Josh Osich Koda Glover Luke Maile Marco Hernandez Miguel Diaz Pedro Avila Rafael Ortega Relievers Rico Garcia Tyler Anderson

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Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

By Steve Adams | December 2, 2019 at 4:41pm CDT

With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

Read more

  • The Nationals announced that they’ve agreed to one-year deals with infielder Wilmer Difo and right-hander Hunter Strickland. (Difo’s deal was reported yesterday.) Acquired from the Mariners in a deadline swap, the 31-year-old Strickland was hit hard with the Nats, yielding a dozen runs on 20 hits (five homers) and eight walks with 15 strikeouts in 21 innings. The resulting 5.14 ERA wasn’t pretty, nor was his work in the NLDS (four runs in two innings). But with a $1.6MM salary projection, a quality track record and a clear bullpen need, he was appealing enough for the Nats to keep around on a non-guaranteed arbitration deal.
  • Left-hander Mike Montgomery and the Royals are in agreement on a one-year, $3.1MM contract, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter link). Acquired in the trade that sent Martin Maldonado to the Cubs, Montgomery made 13 starts with Kansas City and turned in a 4.64 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.69 HR/9 and a 51.5 percent ground-ball rate. Those are hardly world-beating results, but Montgomery has never really struggled with home runs before, so perhaps the belief is that a correction to this past season’s juiced ball will lead to better numbers. He’d been projected to earn $2.9MM, so he actually came out a bit in front despite agreeing to an early deal. Not only that, but unlike most arbitration agreements, Montgomery’s contract is fully guaranteed, MLBTR has learned. The Royals can control Montgomery through 2021.
  • The Phillies and Andrew Knapp agreed to a $710K salary for the upcoming season, thus avoiding arbitration, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). The 28-year-old Knapp has yet to deliver on his prospect status with the Phils, slashing .223/.327/.336 through 579 plate appearances in the Majors (including .213/.318/.324 in 160 plate appearances this past season). With J.T. Realmuto entrenched as the backstop in 2020 (and perhaps beyond), Knapp profiles as the top backup option in Philadelphia for now. He’d been projected to earn $800K and is controllable through the 2022 season.
  • The Orioles announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a 2020 contract with left-hander Richard Bleier. The southpaw had a rough go of things in his return from 2018 surgery to repair a Grade 3 lat strain — 5.37 ERA in 55 1/3 innings — but he finished the season strong. Bleier also continued to display superlative control (1.3 BB/9) and elite ground-ball skills (59.9 percent), both of which have helped to offset his paltry strikeout rates to this point in his career (4.3 K/9, 11.6 K%). He was projected to earn $1.1MM, but MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Bleier has agreed to a $915K salary for the upcoming season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Athletics Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Transactions Washington Nationals Alex Dickerson Andrew Knapp Austin Barnes Ehire Adrianza Greg Garcia Hunter Strickland J.T. Realmuto James McCann Jharel Cotton Martin Maldonado Mike Montgomery Mike Zunino Nick Goody Orlando Arcia Richard Bleier Scott Alexander T.J. McFarland Todd Zolecki Travis Jankowski Wandy Peralta Wilmer Difo Yasmani Grandal

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Rangers Claim Jimmy Herget, Designate Jeffrey Springs

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | December 2, 2019 at 1:56pm CDT

The Rangers announced Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Jimmy Herget off waivers from the Reds and designated left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a corresponding move. The Rangers’ 40-man roster remains full.

Herget turned 26 late last season after receiving his first MLB look. He didn’t produce a single strikeout in 6 1/3 innings in the majors, but ran up 10.4 K/9 over his 58 2/3 Triple-A innings. The funky righty posted a 2.91 ERA at the highest level of the minors but has largely been stalled there for the past three seasons.

The Texas org obviously preferred Herget’s outlook to that of Springs, who turned in good results in 2018 but couldn’t follow that up last year. In his 32 1/3 innings in the majors, Springs scuffled to a 6.40 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 6.4 BB/9.

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Cincinnati Reds Texas Rangers Transactions Jeffrey Springs Jimmy Herget

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Rangers Claim Nick Goody

By Steve Adams | December 2, 2019 at 11:13am CDT

Dec. 2: Goody has accepted the assignment and been added to the Rangers’ 40-man roster, per a club announcement. The team’s 40-man roster is now full.

Nov. 26: Indians right-hander Nick Goody has been claimed off waivers by the Rangers, per an announcement from the Texas organization. (MLBTR reported that he’d been claimed by an unknown team this afternoon.) Players claimed off release waivers have five days to accept the assignment to their new club or reject in favor of free agency.

Goody, 28, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive a $1.1MM salary via arbitration this winter. The right-hander had a terrific 2017 season for the Indians, compiling a 2.80 ERA with 11.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 in 54 innings out of the bullpen. Goody logged an eye-popping 16.1 percent swinging-strike rate that season and whiffed nearly a third of the hitters he faced. His slider, in particular, gave opponents fits, as evidenced by a 24.2 percent swinging-strike mark and an awful .147 opponents’ average against the pitch.

An elbow strain caused Goody to miss most of the 2018 season, however, limiting him to 11 2/3 innings of 6.94 ERA ball. He was healthy again for most of the 2019 season and turned out a solid 3.54 ERA with a 50-to-22 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings. Control was an issue for Goody this past season, and his 25.7 percent fly-ball rate was a career-low. But the right-hander’s 92.8 mph average fastball was a career-high, and his slider, which was hammered in 2018, appeared to be back into good form in 2019 (.123 average against; 23.2 percent swinging-strike rate).

If Goody does indeed accept his assignment to the Rangers and go through the arbitration process, he’d be controllable for not only the 2020 season but also the 2021-22 seasons.

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Cleveland Guardians Texas Rangers Transactions Nick Goody

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Quick Hits: Rangers, Andujar, Nishikawa, Giants, Bleier

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2019 at 8:46pm CDT

We’ll check out a few notes as we wrap up a quiet weekend around baseball.

  • The Rangers are “definitely intrigued” by the idea of acquiring Miguel Andújar from the Yankees to fill their third base vacancy, hears T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The Yankees have gotten numerous hits on Andújar this offseason, with interested teams perhaps looking to buy low after a labrum tear ended the 24-year-old’s season in April. With Gio Urshela having supplanted Andújar at the hot corner in the Bronx, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up now looks like an interesting trade candidate. Free agency remains an option for Texas, too; Sullivan hears the Rangers are still interested in Josh Donaldson, whom the MLBTR staff guessed would end up in Arlington on a three year, $75MM deal.
  • Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters outfielder Haruki Nishikawa hopes the team will make him available to MLB clubs via the posting system next offseason, reports Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Nishikawa, whom Coskrey describes as a “speedy, left-handed hitter,” has a cumulative .284/.376/.393 line in parts of eight NPB seasons. 2019 marked a bit of a step back from the past few years for the 27-year-old, as he slashed .288/.393/.385 with 19 stolen bases. Every year between 2016-18, though, Nishikawa stole at least 39 bags with an OPS north of .790. Nishikawa’s entering his final year under contract with the Fighters, but he won’t qualify for international free agency. Thus, he will need the Fighters, whom Coskrey notes has historically been the most amenable NPB team to posting its top players, including Shohei Ohtani, to agree to post him if he’s to gauge MLB interest in 2020.
  • The Giants are negotiating a deal with Indians’ infield coach/defensive coordinator Kai Correa, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (via Twitter). San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler is a “huge fan” of Correa’s, Baggarly adds. Correa has spent the past two years working with infielders in the Cleveland organization. He’d previously spent seven seasons coaching at the college level, including four at the University of Northern Colorado.
  • The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Richard Bleier to avoid arbitration, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter). Bleier is projected for a modest $1.1MM award in his first foray through the process. The left-handed sinkerballer has consistently posted an elite ground ball rate and been particularly stingy with walks, helping to overcome one of the game’s worst strikeout rates. Unfortunately, Bleier’s 5.37 ERA last season was over three runs per nine higher than the 1.97 career mark he carried entering the year.
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Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Haruki Nishikawa Kai Correa Miguel Andujar Richard Bleier

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AL Notes: Zunino, Rangers, Apostel, Cole, Boras

By Dylan A. Chase | November 30, 2019 at 8:45pm CDT

The Rays made the gutsy decision to bet on a bounceback from catcher Mike Zunino in 2020, opting to avoid arb with the former Gator via a $4.5MM deal while Travis d’Arnaud headed for richer pastures in Atlanta. Zunino has never been what one would call a complete hitter, but 2019 represented a personal low from a performance standpoint, with the former top draftee managing just a .165/.232/.312 (45 wRC+) output through 289 plate appearances. Now, the likelihood of a Zunino rebound at the plate may rest on the work of hitting coach Chad Mottola, suggests Josh Tolentino of The Athletic (link).

As Tolentino notes, Mottola was instrumental in helping d’Arnaud find offensive consistency and also helped pull shortstop Willy Adames out of an early-season funk in 2019. Zunino’s real value will likely always lie with the glove (he did record 8.3 Fielding Runs Above Average in limited work in 2019, per Baseball Prospectus), but a return to his 2017 levels (126 wRC+ and 25 homers in 124 games) would certainly be a welcome development. The Rays also hold a $4.5MM option on Zunino for the 2021 season.

More notes from around the American League…

  • The Rangers’ decision to draft two third basemen, Josh Jung and Davis Wendzel, with their top two picks in the 2019 draft led many to believe that the future of that position was well in hand, but the toolsy Sherten Apostel should not be counted out as a long-term answer, opines Levi Weaver of The Athletic. Originally acquired alongside Taylor Hearn in a 2018 deadline deal that sent Keone Kela to Pittsburgh, Apostel is likely to start 2020 at High-A Down East alongside Jung. Despite his 6’4 frame, organizational observers are bullish about his ability to stick at the hot corner, and his prodigious raw power prompted Single-A Hickory manager Matt Hagen to credit the 20-year-old Curacao native with “man-child” strength. Apostel managed a .251/.339/.440 slash line and 19 home runs across 478 plate appearances between two levels last year. Of course, the position could be addressed via a long-term signing this offseason, with our writers settling on Texas as a realistic destination for free agent Josh Donaldson in early November.
  • While much has been made of Gerrit Cole’s professional relationship with agent Scott Boras this offseason, observers should take note that Cole previously shown a tendency to direct his own fortunes, reminds Tracy Ringolsby of Baseball America. When Cole was a first-round draftee of the Yankees back in 2008, it was Cole and his father, according to Ringolsby, who made the ultimate decision to pursue a collegiate career at UCLA. Cole’s first-round signing bonus that year was expected to land around $4MM, but the Cole family apparently believed that the intangible value of an education–to say nothing of another chance of entering the draft at a higher slot–outweighed the benefits of an early payday. Obviously, it doesn’t register as news to be reminded that agents are entrusted to work for the best interests of their clients, but it may be worth considering, given their working history, that the former Astros ace and his representatives likely have more in mind this offseason than pure dollar value alone.
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Houston Astros Notes Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Gerrit Cole Mike Zunino Scott Boras Sherten Apostel

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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Kyle Gibson Deal

By Dylan A. Chase | November 29, 2019 at 3:28pm CDT

Wednesday’s reported agreement between Kyle Gibson and the Rangers to a three-year, $30MM deal will likely not go down as the most impactful free agent deal signed by a starting pitcher this offseason. Due to an assortment of early-career injuries, Gibson reached free agency relatively late, at 32 years of age, with the additional misfortune of doing so in the shadow of names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler. While Gibson might not represent the flashiest name to find a new uniform this winter, his Texas signing represented part of an apparently ongoing talent acquisition strategy in Arlington.

As noted by our own Jeff Todd and Steve Adams, Gibson’s deal fit the mold of the organization’s recent signings of pitchers like Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. Those deals have worked out swimmingly for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, with Minor and Lynn fronting a 2019 staff that helped lead Texas to a surprisingly solid 78-84 finish in 2019. Minor’s own spotty track record of health allowed Daniels to secure his services for a three-year, $28MM commitment prior to 2018; Lynn, fresh off of a disappointing 2018 following several years of solid performance, inked a three-year, $30MM accord with Texas prior to last season. In 2019, those economical signings provided Texas with a combined 418.2 innings of 3.63 ERA pitching.

Not one of these pitchers could be called a true reclamation project. Like Lynn and Minor, Gibson comes to the Dallas area with a few warts on his health report, some inconsistencies in performance, and a few flaws in his statistical profile; he also arrives with a fairly solid body of cumulative work and a few reasons to believe his best pitching may be yet ahead of him. While his early career Tommy John procedure goes a long way toward explaining his late entry to the free agency portal, Gibson’s made 25 or more starts in every season since 2014. Not every campaign has been brilliant, with an ERA exceeding 5.00 between 2016 and 2017, but the big righty was a sub-4.00 ERA starter in 2015 and 2018, while this past season saw him record career bests in K/9 and K/BB ratios (due, perhaps, to some measurable improvements in his repertoire). The Mizzou product won’t be confused with an ace, but he’s accumulated 5.2 fWAR over the past two seasons and could be called the archetype of a “back-of-the-rotation” arm. Meanwhile, Texas will roll out Gibson, Minor, and Lynn for a combined annual commitment of roughly $31MM next season–perhaps less than it will cost an acquiring team for one yearly serving of Cole.

Detractors of the deal, however, will point to a serving of Cole as having been an entirely realistic holiday season wish. After showing a willingness to sport a $160MM-plus Opening Day payroll in 2017, Texas ownership has since pared down OD payrolls bit-by-bit; 2020’s opening payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, is projected to fall at roughly $110MM as presently constructed. The Rangers, as you may have heard, are moving into a new ballpark in 2020, raising fanbase expectations in regard to on-field product. And as for that new stadium? Daniels will have to hope that Gibson can keep the ball within its confines, as the hurler’s 20.4% HR/FB rate from last season does not bode well for a pitcher performing in the dry Texas heat. If Gibson performs the way Minor and Lynn have as Rangers, this deal will look like another reasonable move in a market where reason can oftentimes lose out; if his struggles with the long ball lead to another up-and-down season, fans will likely wonder why the club didn’t aim higher in its search for starting pitching.

In your opinion, is the Gibson signing a shrewd continuation of a tried-and-true Texas trend or an underwhelming half-measure in light of 2020 expectations? (Poll link for app users)


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MLBTR Polls Texas Rangers Kyle Gibson

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