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Athletics Finalize Season-Opening Rotation

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The Athletics have finalized their season-opening rotation, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. The five spots will be taken by Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, JP Sears, Osvaldo Bido, and Joey Estes, though not necessarily in that order. Mitch Spence will pitch out of the bullpen, at least to start the season.

There was never much doubt about the first three. Severino has been almost exclusively starter dating back to his 2015 debut. He has had some injury absences and some wobbles in his performance, but he just posted a 3.91 earned run average over 31 starts for the Mets last year. The A’s gave him a three-year, $67MM contract in November, the largest guarantee in franchise history, hoping that he would serve as a veteran anchor for the starting staff.

Springs emerged as a viable rotation candidate with the Rays in 2022, starting the year in relief but eventually posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 1/3 innings. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the past two seasons but he returned to the Rays last year and had a 3.27 ERA over seven starts. That was enough for the A’s to send three young players and a competitive balance round pick to Tampa in order to acquire Springs and Jacob Lopez. Sears made 64 starts for the A’s over the past two seasons with a combined ERA of 4.46.

The last two spots were a bit more up for grabs. Estes had a decent but not overwhelming season in 2024, his first extended look in the majors. He tossed 127 2/3 innings over 24 starts and one relief appearance with a 5.01 ERA. His 16.9% strikeout rate was well below average but he demonstrated strong control with a 5% walk rate. He’s had a decent spring, with 11 2/3 innings of six-run ball, a 4.63 ERA. He’s only punched out eight opponents but also given out just one walk and hit one batter.

Bido tossed 63 1/3 innings for the A’s last year over nine starts and seven relief appearances with a strong 3.41 ERA. His 10% walk rate was a tad high but his 24.3% strikeout rate was a bit above average. This spring, those rate stats have been similar, as he has struck out 25.4% of batters faced and walked opponents at an 8.5% clip. The 9.24 ERA certainly looks ugly but that’s mostly due to one really bad outing. Against Cleveland on March 7, he tossed 3 1/3 innings and allowed eight earned runs on nine hits, including four home runs, despite notching four strikeouts against just one walk.

Spence was a Rule 5 pick last year and worked out well. He logged 151 1/3 innings over 24 starts and 11 relief appearances with a 4.58 ERA. His 19.4% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.4% clip and also got grounders at a strong rate of 48.4%. In the small sample of his spring work, his results have backed up slightly. He has only punched out 14% of batters faced while his grounder rate is down to 43.6%.

The spring stats are all miniscule samples but it seems Bido and Estes have edged out Spence for the final two rotation spots. As mentioned, Bido’s 9.24 ERA is rough but mostly inflated by one awful game. Since his strikeout and walk numbers are in line with last year’s, that is probably going to be overlooked as a blip. Estes has broadly posted numbers fairly similar to what he did last year. Spence, meanwhile, has seen his strikeout rate drop from an already subpar level. Again, we’re not talking about meaningful sample sizes here, but the A’s had to make a decision.

A club’s opening-day rosters are only a snapshot in time. Over the course of a long season, things will change and the mix will surely look different over the coming months. That’s especially true on a pitching staff, where injuries are almost inevitable. Spence will be in the bullpen for now but will likely have opportunities to get into the rotation later, as he did last year. The A’s will also have guys like Hogan Harris, J.T. Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund, Ryan Cusick and Lopez jockeying for opportunities. Brady Basso and Ken Waldichuk will start the season on the injured list but could factor into the mix later in the year.

MLBTR Podcast: Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Rays Notes: Boyle, Springs Trade, Shortstop, Soto

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The Rays swung a prominent trade with the Athletics yesterday, bringing in three players and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in exchange for left-handers Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez.  Tampa president of baseball operations Erik Neander told MLB.com’s Adam Berry and other reporters that the decision to move Springs was “really, really difficult,” and that the trade was “a situation where the A’s really stepped forward and really wanted Jeffrey.”

On paper, it was widely assumed that the Rays would be dealing from their rotation depth this winter, with Springs and Zack Littell viewed as the likeliest trade candidates since they were the two highest-paid of the rotation candidates.  The surplus is still technically in place since they still have six starters (Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, and Littell) on the roster, plus now Joe Boyle acquired in the Springs trade.  Berry writes that that despite all these available arms, the Rays aren’t expected to trade any more starting pitching.

“Right now, we’re looking at more starters than we have rotation spots and kind of navigating the different ways to resolve that while also knowing you can never have enough,” Neander said.

Boyle has big league experience in the form of 63 2/3 innings with the A’s over the last two seasons, but of the seven potential starters, he seems like the clearest candidate to begin the season in Triple-A.  The hard-throwing Boyle has battled his control in both the major and minors, and Neander suggested that the Rays view him as a bit of a work in progress, with plenty of potential.

“Joe Boyle is somebody that has the physicality and the stuff to fit at the front of the rotation,” Neander said.  “I think there’s signs of progress on the strike-throwing, and he doesn’t need to be a sharpshooter to be really effective….The upside, I think, is something that warrants great patience when it comes to his development.”

Trading from the rotation depth was one of the top checkpoints on Tampa’s offseason to-do list, and it remains to be seen what else Neander has in store to upgrade the roster ahead of what will be an unconventional season at George M. Steinbrenner Field rather than Tropicana Field.  In terms of lineup help, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times feels the Rays will mostly look within their organization, but they could add outfield depth and the team is “at least open to a more offensive-oriented shortstop.”

Since Wander Franco’s time with the Rays is almost surely over, Taylor Walls is penciled in as the starting shortstop, and Walls is still looking for a breakout at the plate.  Over parts of four MLB seasons, Walls has hit only .188/.288/.293 over 1243 plate appearances — Walls’ 71 wRC+ is the fourth-lowest of any player with at least 1000 PA since Opening Day 2021.

What Walls brings to the table is glovework, though public defensive metrics aren’t unanimous in their approval of Walls’ work at shortstop.  The Outs Above Average metrics has given him negative grades in each of the last three seasons and he drew negative UZR/150 scores in 2022 and 2023 before a huge +15.3 UZR/150 last season.  The Defensive Runs Saved metric, meanwhile, has given Walls +35 DRS over his 1983 2/3 career innings at shortstop.

The Rays seem to lean more towards the DRS view, as Topkin notes that the club has a “fervid appreciation” for Walls’ glovework.  As such, a trade offer or free agent opportunity would have to pass “a high bar” to inspire Tampa Bay to reduce Walls’ playing time.  Any kind of acquisition at shortstop would also be a short-term add anyway, since top prospect Carson Williams could be in line to make his MLB debut at some point later in the 2025 season.

Still, Neander and his front office can never be ruled out for making a creative move.  We saw evidence of this in early November when reports indicated that the Rays were one of the many teams who had been in contact with Juan Soto at the opening of the free agent market.  The check-in was perhaps largely but due diligence, but Topkin reports that “the Rays pitched a short-term deal…supposedly with opt-outs after each season.”

It is probably safe to assume that this offer didn’t gain much traction within Soto’s camp, but there was no harm in floating a unique offer Soto’s way to see if there was any interest.  It was just last season that several other Scott Boras clients signed shorter-term, player option-heavy contracts after not finding the long-term deals they were hoping to land in free agency, though there was much less chance that Soto would come up short in his bid for a record-setting contract.

Athletics Acquire Jeffrey Springs In Multi-Player Trade With Rays

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The Athletics and Rays have announced a multi-player trade that will see left-handers Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez head to West Sacramento.  In return, the Rays will receive right-hander Joe Boyle, the Athletics’ pick in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2025 draft, and two minor league players in righty Jacob Watters and first baseman/outfielder Will Simpson.

Considering how deep the Rays are in rotation options, Springs was viewed as a logical trade candidate this winter, as he was about to enter the more expensive portion of the backloaded four-year, $31MM extension he signed with Tampa in January 2023.  Springs is owed $10.5MM in each of the next two seasons, and there is a $15MM club option on his services for 2027 that can be bought out for $750K.

For the first two years and $9.25MM on that extension, the Rays only 49 innings of work from Springs, albeit with a 2.39 ERA.  A Tommy John surgery in April 2023 shelved Springs for the majority of the last two seasons, and he returned to the mound last July to post a 3.27 ERA over seven starts and 33 innings before he was shut down in early September due to fatigue in his throwing elbow.  It’s hard to gain much data from a small sample size, but Springs still had above-average strikeout and walk rate, and if anything might’ve gotten better bottom-line results if it wasn’t for a .330 BABIP.

Prior to the injury, Springs seemed like yet another success story for Tampa Bay’s pitching development system.  A 30th-round draft pick for the Rangers in the 2015 draft, Springs showed only a few flashes of quality over his first three MLB seasons while posting a 5.42 ERA in 84 2/3 innings with Texas and Boston.  Dealt from the Red Sox to the Rays in a relatively under-the-radar trade in February 2021, Springs emerged to post a 3.43 ERA in 44 2/3 bullpen innings for Tampa during the 2021 season, and he then had even better results after transitioning into a starting role in 2022.  The breakout year saw Springs deliver a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings (as well as a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate) as Springs finally seemed to avoid the home run problems that plagued most of his career.

Springs was able to cash in on his big season with a life-changing contract extension, but his long injury layoff turned him into an odd man out of the Rays’ rotation.  Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Zack Littell, and Drew Rasmussen are all lined up to get starts in 2025, not to mention whatever other young starters could emerge from Tampa’s ever-loaded farm system.  With Springs’ price tag rising, many figured that the Rays would move his salary to a pitching-needy team with payroll space to spare.

If the idea of the Athletics being a “team with payroll space to spare” is still surprising to consider, the 32-year-old Springs is now the second splurge the A’s have made on their rotation this winter, after having already signed Luis Severino to a three-year, $67MM deal.  Adding Springs’ contract brings the A’s a step closer to the minimum $105MM luxury tax figure required to continue qualifying as a revenue-sharing team, and to avoid a grievance from the players’ union.  RosterResource estimates the Athletics’ current tax number at roughly $88.55MM, assuming the trade is completed.

Ulterior motive notwithstanding, trading for Springs is also a solid baseball move for an A’s team in need of rotation help.  Severino and Springs are big upgrades to a rotation that struggled badly last season, and the newcomers now stand as the top two members of the starting five that includes JP Sears, Mitch Spence, and Joey Estes.

More pitching moves can’t be ruled out, since the Athletics still have a ways to go before hitting that $105MM figure.  Severino notwithstanding, it can’t be an easy sell for the A’s to convince free agents to pitch in a minor league ballpark in West Sacramento, so trading for players (perhaps on unwanted contracts) has long seemed like a more logical move for the Athletics to both add payroll and bolster their roster at the same time.

Lopez shouldn’t be ruled out as part of the Athletics’ pitching situation in 2025, as the southpaw has already amassed 22 2/3 MLB innings with the Rays over the last two seasons.  A 26th-round pick for the Giants in the 2018 draft, Lopez missed all of 2022 recovering from a Tommy John surgery, but he has a 2.99 ERA across 337 2/3 career minor league innings.  That includes a 3.54 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, and 12.87% walk rate in 168 innings of Triple-A ball, with Lopez starting 37 of 39 games for the Rays’ top affiliate.

Despite a lack of velocity, Lopez has been able to miss quite a few bats, though this ability hasn’t manifested itself in his brief time in the majors.  It could be that Lopez might’ve gotten more big league looks if he’d simply been on a team that didn’t have Tampa Bay’s pitching depth, and a fresh opportunity now presents itself for Lopez with this trade.  Lopez (who turns 27 in March) figures to be part of the fifth starter competition in camp but will probably begin the year at Triple-A, acting as one of the first depth options in the event of an injury to a rotation member.

Turning to the Rays’ end of the trade, the inclusion of the Comp-A pick is particularly interesting, and it might speak to the league-wide interest in Springs’ services.  The Competitive Balance Rounds are bonus rounds within the draft that award picks to 15 teams within the bottom 10 in market size and revenue, as determined by the league’s formula that factors in revenue, winning percentage and market score.  The CBR picks are the only draft selections that are eligible to be traded, and while such trades tend to be rare, we’ve seen these picks involved in some prominent trades over the years.  The Comp-A round takes place just before the start of the second round, and while the exact placement of the traded pick has yet to be determined, last year’s Comp-A picks were selections #34-39 in the 2024 draft order.

It is no small thing for a team to deal such a pick, especially when building through the draft is of particular importance to a low-spending team like the A’s.  Still, getting at least two years of control over Springs was apparently worth the cost, as with the club option, the Athletics could have Springs for the entirety of their three-year stint in Sacramento before their planned new ballpark in Las Vegas is ready for Opening Day 2028.

As for the other parts of the trade package, Boyle brings a Major League-ready arm to the Rays’ pitching mix.  Debuting with a 1.69 ERA in three starts and 16 innings in 2023, Boyle had a 6.42 ERA in 47 2/3 innings this past season, missing about a month of action with a back strain and spending the bulk of the year at Triple-A.

The 25-year-old is something of a classic case of a hard-throwing (97.7mph average fastball velocity in the majors) pitcher who can’t harness his stuff, as Boyle has posted elevated walk totals in the minors and during his 2024 stint in the Show.  Fixing these control problems will determine whether or not Boyle can stick in the big leagues as a reliever or back-end starter, and given the Rays’ history of fixing pitchers, nobody would be surprised if Boyle ends up figuring it out in Tampa just as Springs and many other hurlers have done over the years.  Boyle has two minor league options remaining, giving the Rays more flexibility in using him as a fresh arm to shuttle back and forth between Triple-A and the active roster.

Baseball America ranked Simpson 16th on their ranking of the Athletics’ top 30 prospects back in April, while MLB Pipeline has Simpson 28th in their evaluation of the team’s system.  A 15th-round pick in the 2023 draft, Simpson has crushed minor league pitching in his two pro seasons and made it to the Double-A level for 18 games in 2024.  Simpson has shown some good pop in his bat and he has a good approach at the plate — scouts like his “analytical aptitude,” as BA’s scouting report puts it, with the idea that Simpson can still unlock more as he explores more ways to upgrade his hitting.  Defensively, Pipeline is more bullish on the idea of Simpson as a serviceable first baseman or corner outfielder, while Baseball America is more down on his glovework in general.

Watters was a fourth-round pick for the A’s in the 2022 draft, and he has a 5.86 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, and an inflated 13.73% walk rate in 152 pro innings.  Almost all of this experience is at the high-A level, though Watters skipped Double-A to make one spot appearance in Triple-A ball last season.  Working as both a starter and reliever, Watters’ numbers have been decidedly better out of the pen, so that might be the 23-year-old’s eventual career path.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) reported the trade and all of the players and picks involved except for Lopez, whose involvement wasn’t revealed until the deal was officially announced. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rays’ Jeffrey Springs, Pete Fairbanks Drawing Trade Interest

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There’s never an offseason where the Rays don’t have multiple players circulating the rumor mill, and this winter is no exception. Tampa Bay already flipped center fielder Jose Siri to the Mets last month, and there’s been plenty of speculation about the possibility of trades of some of their veteran players earning notable salaries. Yandy Diaz has often been the focus, but he’s one of several players who could draw interest. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that closer Pete Fairbanks and left-hander Jeffrey Springs are among the Rays who’ve been popular in trade talks recently.

It’s not a huge surprise to see either player’s name pop up in trade rumblings. Fairbanks featured prominently on MLBTR’s list of top offseason trade candidates back in early November. Springs is the most expensive of at least six healthy rotation options for the Rays. Both players are signed for multiple seasons.

Springs, 32, has two years and $21MM remaining on a four-year, $31MM extension he signed prior to the 2023 season. The contract contains a $15MM club option for the 2027 season ($750K buyout). To this point, that contract hasn’t panned out as hoped, though not necessarily through any real fault of Springs. The journeyman southpaw broke out with the Rays in 2022, posting a sparkling 2.46 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate and terrific 5.6% walk rate in 135 2/3 innings. He looked like another late-blooming diamond in the rough unearthed by a Rays front office with a knack for just that type of discovery.

Unfortunately, Springs hasn’t been healthy since. He made three dominant starts to open the 2023 season (16 innings, one run allowed, 24-to-4 K/BB ratio) and then suffered a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery. He missed the remainder of the ’23 campaign and made it back to the mound for seven big league starts and 33 innings late last year. The results were good in that limited sample. Springs posted a sharp 3.27 earned run average, fanned 26.1% of opponents and held his walks to a 7.7% rate. His average four-seamer was down from 91.4 mph in 2022 to 89.8 mph in 2024, however, and he saw similar velocity drops on his slider and changeup. Springs’ 12.9% swinging-strike rate was still strong, but it’s down from the 14.2% clip he displayed in 2021-23.

In addition to Springs, the Rays have Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz and a returning Shane McClanahan (2022 Tommy John surgery) all in the mix for starts next year. That’s in addition to yet-to-debut prospects like Joe Rock and Ian Seymour, who both excelled in the upper minors last year. Springs has looked the part of a high-end starter in the past but only for a fleeting span of about 150 innings across 2022-23. The Rays would be selling a bit low, but his $10.5MM salary is steep for them under normal circumstances — let alone at a time when the club is facing likely revenue losses following Hurricane Milton’s decimation of Tropicana Field’s roof and the club’s subsequent agreement to play at Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field — the spring training and Class-A home of the Yankees.

Fairbanks, 30, has been terrific when healthy in five seasons with the Rays. “When healthy” is an unfortunately crucial caveat, however, as the flamethrowing 6’6″ righty has never reached 50 appearances or topped 45 1/3 innings in a big league season. Dating back to 2020, Fairbanks touts a 2.89 ERA. He fanned nearly 35% of his opponents from 2020-23 but saw that number slip to a roughly average 23.7% this past season. Fairbanks didn’t have a huge loss of velocity on his heater, but it dipped from an average of 98 mph from ’20-’23 to 97.3 mph in 2024. His slider saw a larger drop, going from an average of 86.4 mph to 85 mph over those same periods.

The Rays signed Fairbanks to a three-year, $12MM contract that bought out all three arbitration years (2023-25) and guaranteed them control over his first free-agent season in the form of a 2026 club option. He’s owed $3.666MM this season with a $7MM option ($1MM buyout) on his ’26 campaign. Even for a partial season of a reliever with Fairbanks’ upside, it’s a pretty modest price to pay. As such, there’s no inherent urgency for the Rays to move him. They might feel a bit more motivated to move Springs and his weightier salary, but to this point it’s not clear the Rays are necessarily shopping either — just that they’ve drawn interest.

The Rays’ lot in life, of course, is to constantly listen on all of their players as they progress through their arbitration years or the latter stages of any contract extensions. This year’s stadium troubles and the uncertainty surrounding their home in 2026 and beyond only add to that.

At the same time, Tampa Bay already significantly culled payroll with their series of deadline trades and via the departures of some arb-eligible players (via trade and non-tender). RosterResource projects a bit less than $79MM in payroll for the Rays this coming season — already a drop of more than $10MM from their 2024 levels. Trading Springs, Fairbanks or other veterans like the aforementioned Diaz or Brandon Lowe could further reduce spending and free up the Rays to take on some money in other trades. With regard to free agency, they’re in a similar spot to the A’s in that they’ll have to persuade players to sign on for at least one year (and likely more) playing their home games in a minor league facility.

Rays Could Deal From Rotation Depth This Offseason

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After the club’s first losing season in six years, the Rays are headed into what figures to be a pivotal offseason for the club as they look to remain contenders in a highly competitive AL East division. As noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, one way the club could look to address its lackluster offense (29th in the majors in runs scored this year) this winter is by trading from their rotation depth to acquire a bat, even if that bat doesn’t address their reported offseason priority of improving the club at catcher.

For a Tampa club that enters the winter in serious need of an offensive boost, it’s hard to deny the logic in dealing from their deep group of available arms. Youngsters Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot all emerged as solid, affordable rotation options for the club this year, and Zack Littell’s first full season in a big league rotation seems to have established him as a quality mid-rotation option with one year to go before free agency.

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Springs returned to make seven solid starts for the club in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year and Drew Rasmussen also rejoined the club’s pitching staff late in the year following his own 2023 elbow surgery. Rasmussen pitched primarily in a relief role this year, never throwing more than 38 pitches in an outing, but figures to be a rotation option for the Rays come Spring Training. That also figures to be the case for lefty Shane McClanahan, who went under the knife last August but figures to be ready for Spring Training as well.

With at least seven quality rotation options even after dealing away Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin at the trade deadline over the summer, it would certainly make sense for the club to explore dealing from that depth in order to address the offense. The Braves, Cubs, and Red Sox are all already known to be interested in adding rotation help this winter, while the Orioles and Mets are among the many other teams that could stand to benefit from adding a starter or two this winter as well. With even more clubs sure to look to bolster their pitching when the offseason fully gets underway following the World Series, the Rays should be well positioned to make a deal if they so choose.

Given the club’s small-market payroll and focus on long-term sustainability, it would be something of a surprise to see the Rays move on from any of Bradley, Baz, or Pepiot without recouping a similarly talented and controllable bat in return. On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a shock if clubs were hesitant to deal for McClanahan or Rasmussen given the former hasn’t pitched in more than a year while the latter hasn’t stretched out to start since returning from injury. That could leave Littell and Springs as the most likely candidates to be dealt this winter, with each hurler having various pros and cons as a trade candidate.

When it comes to Littell, the argument for dealing him is rather straightforward: the righty is only under team control through the end of the 2025 season and projects for a not insignificant $4.8MM in his final trip through arbitration according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, so by dealing him the Rays could save a bit of money to address other areas of the roster while also potentially bringing in a more controllable player to complement their offense. With that being said, Littell’s status as a rental could dampen the return for his services somewhat on the heels of a 3.63 ERA campaign that was more solid than excellent.

If teams aren’t scared off by Springs’s lack of volume over the past few years, then, he might be able to bring back a more significant return. After all, the southpaw has been dominant when healthy with a 2.44 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 184 1/3 innings of work since 2022, when he first became a starter. Results that strong would be valuable to virtually any rotation in baseball, and Springs’s $21.75MM guarantee over the next two years lands in the sort of sweet spot that would make him a relative bargain for other teams while still clearing a significant financial burden off the books in Tampa, allowing Erik Neander and his front office to explore further upgrades in free agency even beyond what Springs would bring back in trade.

Rays Place Jeffrey Springs On 15-Day Injured List

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The Rays announced this morning that they’ve placed left-hander Jeffrey Springs on the 15-day injured list due to what the club described as left elbow fatigue. Left-hander Tyler Alexander was recalled to the big league roster in a corresponding move.

Springs, 32 later this month, underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2023 and returned to the mound in the majors for the first time on the day of the trade deadline back in July earlier this year. It was unfortunate timing for the Rays, as Springs went under the knife just three starts into a four-year extension the club inked him to prior to the 2023 season on the heels of a 2022 campaign where he posted a 2.35 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 135 1/3 innings of work split between the rotation and bullpen. Springs has made seven starts since returning from the IL earlier this year and, while he hasn’t quite reached that level of dominance, he’s certainly held his own with a 3.27 ERA and a 4.00 FIP to go with a strong 26.1% strikeout rate.

It’s not yet clear whether or not today’s trip to the IL spells the end of Springs’s 2024 season. For his part, Springs told reporters (including those at MLB.com) today that his hope is to make two more starts this season and that his elbow was just “a little more sore than normal,” which manager Kevin Cash suggested was probably fatigue that should be expected coming off surgery.  Still, given the fact that he’s suffering from an issue regarding his elbow just over a month after returning from Tommy John surgery, it would hardly be a shock if the Rays simply decided to play it safe with him for the remainder of the season. After all, the 70-72 Rays sold somewhat aggressively at the trade deadline as they fell out of playoff contention and pivoted towards prioritizing next season and beyond. Even after dealing away key pieces such as third baseman Isaac Paredes and outfielder Randy Arozarena back in July, the Rays appear to be in pretty good shape to contend in 2025.

A big reason for that optimism is the expected return of several key pitchers to full-time rotation duties next year. Ace lefty Shane McClanahan underwent Tommy John surgery just over a year ago and resumed throwing in late July, putting him on track to be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation next year. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen, who returned last month from an internal brace procedure on his elbow in a bullpen role, also figures to be considered for a return to a rotation role next year. Springs, too, figures to be part of that conversation, leaving the Rays deep in rotation options as that trio joins Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, and Zack Littell in contention for starting jobs headed into 2025.

That deep group of rotation options led the Rays to deal both Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin from their rotation mix this summer, and it’s at least feasible that the club could look to deal another piece such as Littell from their rotation mix over the winter in order to help address an offense that has under-performed with a collective wRC+ of just 96 this year. Whether the Rays look to deal from their deep well of pitching talent in order to restock the lineup or simply hope that a full season from top prospect Junior Caminero and stronger performances from players like Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe, Dylan Carlson, and Jose Siri can boost the club’s offense internally, Springs figures to factor prominently into the club’s rotation plans next year, and putting him in the best position to be healthy and effective headed into next year is sure to be Tampa’s priority as the season winds down.

Taking Springs’s spot on the roster is Alexander, who spent the first five seasons of his career with the Tigers before joining the Rays this year. In his first season with Tampa, the lefty has swung between the bullpen and the rotation with lackluster results, posting a 5.66 ERA and 5.52 FIP in 89 frames. With that being said, his peripherals have been much better in the bullpen than as a starter, as he’s struck out a respectable 21.1% of opponents while pitching in relief against a walk rate of just 4.7%. Alexander is tentatively expected to pitch bulk innings for the club tomorrow night in a start that was previously slated to go to Springs.

Padres To Acquire Jason Adam From Rays

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The Padres acquired right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The Padres are sending righty Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez to Tampa. The Friars designated right-hander Glenn Otto for assignment to open a roster spot while the Rays reinstated Jeffrey Springs from the 60-day injured list to take Adam’s spot.

Like so many other players before him, Adam bounced around the league before finally becoming his best self in Tampa. He was drafted by the Royals back in 2010 and subsequently spent time in several organizations, including the Padres, as well as the Twins, Blue Jays and Cubs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after 2021, at that point sitting on a 4.71 earned run average through 78 1/3 major league innings. He had struck out 27.9% of batters faced but also given out walks at a high rate of 11.4%.

The Rays signed him going into 2022 and he has taken his game to another level since then. He made 170 appearances as a Ray with a 2.30 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has 24 saves and 51 holds in that time. That includes 47 appearances this year with a 2.49 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is a few ticks below recent years but his 47.3% ground ball rate is a personal best.

All contending clubs are looking to bolster their bullpens at this time of year and that’s especially true of the Padres. Their relief corps has a combined ERA of 4.19, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They’ve received good results from Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and others but guys like Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have struggled, with Peralta currently on the injured list.

Adding Adam and his skills to that relief group is understandably appealing, as is his modest salary. Though he turns 33 years old next month, his long journey to being established at the major league level has led to him having a delayed path to notable earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2023 as a Super Two player and made $1.775MM last year, getting a modest bump to $2.7MM here in 2024. He is eligible for two more arbitration seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

The Padres had to make significant salary cuts in the offseason, which led to Juan Soto getting trading to the Yankees. They have still attempted to field a competitive team here in 2024 and have succeeded. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak that has bumped them to 57-50 and possession of a National League Wild Card spot. But they seemingly want to avoid the competitive balance tax this year and are currently on pace to do so.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number at $225MM, roughly $12MM away from the $237MM base threshold. That appears to give them a decent amount of wiggle room but that’s an unofficial estimate. Adam has less than a $1MM left to be paid out this year, so he will only marginally increase San Diego’s CBT number, perhaps leaving the front office room for further moves.

The Rays aren’t buried in the standings but have decided to do some selling this year anyway, seemingly due to a combination of strong depth as well as a seller’s market. Their record is currently 53-52, just four games out of a playoff spot, yet they have already traded multiple established big leaguers for younger talent. They have sent Zach Eflin to the Orioles, Aaron Civale to the Brewers, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners and now Adam to the Padres.

They still have a chance to compete down the stretch but have not been shy about making these kinds of moves, seemingly content to add some young talent and save some money while trying to backfill the lost talent from within their own system. With Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen nearing returns from elbow surgeries, they had readymade rotation replacements. Baz came up to take Civale’s spot and Springs is about to do the same for Eflin. Arozerena’s playing time can be given to guys like Richie Palacios or Jonny DeLuca, while the club always has intriguing bullpen arms on hand and can likely put together a solid relief corps even without Adam.

Lesko, 20, is viewed as the most intriguing part of their return in this deal. The Padres selected him 15th overall in 2022 and he has received plenty of love from prospect evaluators since then. His time in the minors has seen him miss plenty of bats but also the strike zone. He has thrown 69 2/3 innings over 16 starts at the High-A level this year with a 6.46 ERA. He has struck out 25% of batters faced but walked 16.5% of them.

Despite the control issues, he is still considered one of the better prospects in the league. FanGraphs currently lists him #88 overall and MLB Pipeline #76. Baseball America had him #38 overall coming into the year but he’s no longer on the top 100 and was recently bumped to #5 in the Padres’ system. Perhaps the Padres are moving on from a prospect that they have soured on or they have simply accepted this as the price of getting a quality reliever who is affordable and controllable. Either way, Tampa has a strong reputation of getting the best out of players and could perhaps get Lesko back on track in the years to come.

Bush is naturally the son of former big leaguer Homer Bush. The younger Bush was a fourth-round pick of the Padres last year. He is a speed-and-defense specialist with a contact-based approach at the plate. In 130 minor league games, he has seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .290/.383/.379. He also has 65 steals in 76 tries. BA currently ranks him 12th in the Padres’ system.

Gonzalez was a third-round pick last year and BA currently ranks him #8 in the system. He is only hitting .205/.322/.230 in Single-A this year but is projected to potentially be a two-way player from behind the plate someday.

Otto was claimed off waivers in September. He began the year on the injured list with a right teres major strain. He began a rehab assignment in early June and was optioned later that month. He has tossed 15 1/3 innings in the minors this year with a 7.63 ERA. The Friars will have a few days to consider trades or put him on waivers.

The Padres have made a notable upgrade to their bullpen for the stretch run but surely aren’t done. Bob Nightengale of USA reports on X that they are now going to turn their attentions to the rotation. The Rays have already made a number of future-focused moves but could perhaps consider more, with players like Pete Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz candidates to go in the coming days.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Adam was heading to the Padres on X. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported Lesko’s inclusion on X. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported on X that Bush and a third prospect were also going to Tampa. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first relayed Gonzalez on X.

Rays Could Make Multiple Starters Available On Trade Market

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The 40-41 Rays are one of many key teams to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws near. While they’re buried in the American League East and unlikely to close their current 10.5-game deficit, they’re also only four games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. At the same time, Tampa Bay could soon find itself with a growing number of big league starters — more than it has room to plug into its rotation.

Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will be ready to rejoin the rotation before long; both pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgery — Baz’s performed in late 2022 and Springs’ performed early last season. Baz already completed a minor league rehab assignment and has continued building up in Triple-A.

Once regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game, the 25-year-old Baz got out to a rough start during his rehab stint but has now rattled off five starts with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for several weeks as well but has yet to pitch more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Prior to his Tommy John procedure, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the latest in a long line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.

Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a trade that sent catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. At the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — but Springs unfortunately went under the knife just three starts into the 2023 campaign.

With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure just under one year ago — the Rays indeed have a mounting stock of arms. The Athletic trio notes in their report that of the team’s current starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be available in trades. Both pitchers are in their second year of arbitration eligibility and controlled through the 2025 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired last summer in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is earning $4.9MM this year. Littell, yet another product of the Rays’ almost comical hidden-gem factory (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is earning just $1.8MM.

Of the two, Littell is enjoying the stronger season but also has the shorter track record. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly average 22% strikeout rate against an exceptional 4.3% walk rate. Since the Rays took the former starter-turned-reliever and plugged him back into a rotation role last July, he’s given them 27 starts with a 3.98 earned run average, 20.2% strikeout rate and even more impressive 3.6% walk rate. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers.)

Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone as the team had hoped when acquiring him last year. He’s posted strong strikeout and walk rates alike, but his sharp K-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up home runs. The 29-year-old righty has started 26 games for Tampa Bay dating to last summer’s trade but logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Despite upping his strikeout rate from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and maintaining his terrific command (6.1% walk rate in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 with his former club to 5.26 with his current one. After yielding 1.19 homers per nine frames in five seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 big flies per nine since heading to St. Petersburg.

There hasn’t been a major change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing more sliders this year at the expensive of his cutter, but it’s not an overwhelming change in usage rates and the righty is still using the same blend of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as well.

Despite Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no shortage of teams interested in adding him and/or Littell to their staff for the next season and a half. Both arms are affordable — particularly for teams with CBT concerns — and there established rotation arms in general will be in short supply. That’s all the more true given recent injuries to trade candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm shortage could position the Rays to deal from their current rotation and then replace whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s returning from injury.

Darragh McDonald and I discussed this possibility with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, also touching on the possibility of the Rays drawing interest in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably more important to the team’s staff than either Civale or Littell, but he’s also the most expensive starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free agency prior to the 2023 season. It’s a heavily backloaded pact that will pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty number by the Rays’ typically thrifty standards. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and able to join young arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in next year’s rotation, the always cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listen on Eflin while pondering a similar gamut to the Littell/Civale scenario laid out in The Athletic’s report.

It bears emphasizing that even if the Rays end up selling — or, as they often have in the past, operating on both the “buy” and “sell” side of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the front office is not interested in a large-scale rebuild. Even if the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will be to reload and take aim and contending again in 2025. Given the wealth of young and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that keeps churning out interesting young hitters, the Rays likely feel they have the foundation of a contending club largely in place.

As is so often the case this time of year, the Rays appear positioned as one of the teams who will in many ways dictate a fair bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether they rattle off several wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card position, maintain the status quo as a bubble team or drop further down the standings, their slate of rehabbing quality arms gives them the flexibility to shop current big league arms — be it for other big leaguers in areas of need or near-MLB prospects who can help in 2025.

AL East Notes: Cole, Springs, Vavra

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The Yankees have been without reigning AL Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole for the entire season to this point as he works his way back from a bout of elbow inflammation, though that hasn’t stopped the club from storming out of the gate to an excellent 37-17 record. The club’s starting five of Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil have all excelled in Cole’s absence, with Cortes’s 3.29 ERA (122 ERA+) standing as the weakest of the group.

Strong as the rotation has been without Cole, the Yankees are surely anxious to get their ace back into the fold. As one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the game today, Cole has posted a 3.08 ERA (136 ERA+) and 3.27 FIP in four seasons with the Yankees including an AL-best 2.63 ERA with a 3.16 FIP across 209 innings of work last year. Fortunately for the club, it seems Cole is making significant progress in his recovery. Erik Boland of Newsday reported yesterday that Cole threw all of his pitches during a 30-pitch bullpen session and touched the club-imposed velocity limit of 95 mph a few times throughout the session. Chris Kirschner of The Athletic added that Cole could begin a rehab assignment as soon as this coming week, depending on how he bounces back from yesterday’s outing.

That’s exciting news for the Yankees, although Cole would likely need a fairly lengthy rehab assignment in order to build up to a starter’s pitch count before he can return to the club. Cole’s return will give the Yankees something of a logjam in the starting rotation, as none of the club’s current options deserve to be removed from the mix based on their performance. It’s possible that Clarke Schmidt’s previous experience in the bullpen could make him a candidate to be moved out of the rotation in favor of Cole, though the club could also simply opt to utilize a six-man rotation for the time being.

More from around the AL East…

  • Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs was pulled from a rehab start in the minor leagues yesterday due to left shoulder tightness, as noted by Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times. Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2023 and is just two appearances into his rehab in the Florida Complex League. It’s not yet clear if Springs’s shoulder issue is a particularly serious one, but a setback in his rehab would be an unfortunate turn of events for both player and club. The 31-year-old sports an incredible 2.34 ERA ERA in 28 starts for the Rays since the start of the 2022 season and figures to help anchor the club’s rotation once healthy. In the absence of Springs, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen this season, Tampa has relied heavily on young, unproven arms such as Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, and Zack Littell.
  • Orioles infielder Terrin Vavra missed most of the 2023 season due to what was at the time referred to as a shoulder strain, but Roch Kubatko of MASN relays that, per Vavra, his injury woes last season were much more serious than previously reported. Vavra was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his right shoulder back in September and underwent surgery on the issue later that month. Vavra’s shoulder woes last season could help to explain the 27-year-old’s struggles at the plate last year, when he slashed just .245/.315/.245 in 56 trips to the plate without recording an extra base hit despite a solid rookie performance in 2022. Vavra was outrighted off the Orioles’s 40-man roster during the offseason but remains in the organization as a potential depth option now that he’s healthy, though the club’s deep infield mix seemingly leaves him blocked at the big league level.
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