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Triston Casas Has Arrived

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Red Sox fans have been waiting roughly a half decade to see whether 2018 first-round pick Triston Casas would eventually become a fixture in the lineup. The hulking 6’4″, 252-pound slugger was selected with the No. 26 overall pick that year and has ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects in each of the past four offseasons according to both Baseball America and MLB.com.

As recently as this April, however, the early returns were looking questionable. Casas got a cup of coffee last season, hitting five homers and walking at a 20% clip in 95 plate appearances — but also hitting the ball on the ground at a whopping 56.8% clip. Not an ideal trait for a slow-footed slugger. Add in a sluggish start to this season, which saw Casas pare back that ground-ball rate but experience a large uptick in strikeout percentage (30.2% through 96 plate appearances), and it was hardly a promising start. Through his first 192 big league plate appearances, Casas batted .162/.319/.344 with an elite 18.8% walk rate and above-average but not elite power. He fanned in 27.2% of those plate appearances.

In the three and a half months since, however, Casas has not only turned things around — he’s emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-lineup bat — at least against right-handed pitching. In his past 301 trips to the plate, Casas has produced a mammoth .293/.379/.540 output with 16 home runs, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. His walk rate is “down” to 12.3% in that time, and he’s fanned at a 23.6% rate that’s only slightly north of the league average.

The biggest change in Casas’ first couple months of big league experience and this productive stretch has been one of passivity — or rather, lack thereof. From last year’s debut through early May this year, Casas swung at just 62.9% of the pitches he saw within the strike zone (and 40% of pitches overall). During his this streak of mashing at the plate, he’s swinging at 72.2% of pitches in the strike zone and 45.2% of the pitches he sees overall. He’s now swinging at in-zone pitches at a higher-than-average rate (league average is 68.7%) but still swinging at a lower total percentage of pitches than the league-average 47.3%. That’s because Casas is rarely enticed by pitches out of the zone; he’s chased off the plate at just a 25.6% clip — more than six percentage points beneath the 31.8% league average.

As far as the quality of Casas’ contact, it’s been excellent. He was making consistent hard contact even before his early-May turnaround began, but the increased aggression within the strike zone now just means he’s making a lot more of it. Casas has averaged 91.5 mph off the bat this season (league average is 89.1 mph) and put 46.1% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more (league average is 39.3%). Statcast has classified 14.5% of his batted balls as “barreled” (16.1% during his peak productivity).

Granted, some of the breakout has been a function of Casas being shielded from left-handed pitching. Casas has clear platoon issues in his young career, hitting just .193/.343/.325 against southpaws versus .257/.357/.503 against righties. This season, he’s 219th in the Majors with just 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The Sox haven’t completely eliminated his playing time against southpaws, but compare his total plate appearances against southpaws to fellow lefty-swinging teammates like Rafael Devers (148 plate appearances), Masataka Yoshida (123) and Alex Verdugo (140) — and it becomes clear that the Sox have at best been selective about the opportunities they’ll give him versus same-handed opposition.

Time will tell whether this year’s usage signals intent for long-term platooning or is just a means of building some confidence in the burgeoning young slugger. If the Sox want to platoon Casas moving forward, there’s at least one natural candidate down on the farm in 28-year-old Bobby Dalbec. Once a fairly heralded prospect himself, Dalbec has been squeezed out of the mix on the big league roster but responded with an outstanding .278/.384/.589 batting line and 30 homers in Triple-A this year. Against left-handed pitching, he’s posted a ludicrous .347/.438/.640 line. Dalbec’s future in Boston — he could potentially be a trade target for a club with eyes on giving him an everyday look this winter — is a topic worth diving into on its own, but suffice it to say he’s at least played his way into consideration for such a role. If not, the free agent market this offseason will feature right-handed bats like Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano and Darin Ruf.

The Sox started Casas against southpaw MacKenzie Gore last night and left him in to face lefty reliever Jose Ferrer. (Casas went 1-for-3, singling off Ferrer.) It’s probably in their best interest to continue giving Casas opportunities against southpaws down the stretch, both to get him additional experience in left-on-left matchups and to help evaluate whether they’ll need a platoon partner for him in the long run.

Casas is still a work in progress defensively (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average), and it’s an open question just how productive he’ll end up being against left-handed pitching.  If he can narrow his platoon splits and/or make some strides on the defensive side of his game, he has star potential in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. He already looks the part against right-handed pitching, however, and Casas’ dedication to the science of hitting (check out his recent Q&A with FanGraphs’ David Laurila) should serve him well as he looks to become a more complete hitter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Shut Down Adalberto Mondesi Due To Continued Knee Soreness

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The Red Sox have shut infielder Adalberto Mondesí down from all baseball activities because of ongoing soreness in his left knee, skipper Alex Cora told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive). While Boston isn’t officially declaring him down for the season, there isn’t much time for his rehab to get going in earnest.

Mondesí has unfortunately struggled to rebound from an ACL tear suffered last April. There was never any doubt that’d end his 2022 campaign but the Sox felt comfortable enough with his health to roll the dice on an offseason trade. They acquired him (and minor league infielder Angel Pierre) in a swap that sent reliever Josh Taylor to the Royals. Boston expressed hope Mondesí would be ready around Opening Day — or at least early enough in the season to help cover for Trevor Story after his elbow surgery — but it hasn’t come to pass.

The trade hasn’t worked out for either team, as Taylor’s recurring back troubles resulted in him undergoing surgery in late June. Mondesí hasn’t had to go back under the knife but his rehab has been littered with stops and starts. Cotillo writes that he’d progressed to running, hitting against live pitching, and fielding grounders before the knee pain became too much to push through.

While the ACL injury is the most significant Mondesí has faced, he has battled various health concerns throughout his career. He’d played in only around half of Kansas City’s games between 2019-21 while missing time due to groin, shoulder, hamstring and oblique problems.

When healthy, Mondesí has intrigued with elite speed, strong middle infield defensive ratings and switch-hitting power upside. An extraordinarily aggressive approach has undercut his offensive production, as he’s reached base at just a .280 clip in 358 MLB games.

There’s a growing chance he doesn’t wind up making an appearance for Boston. Story is back at shortstop, while Pablo Reyes has surprisingly become a key contributor. The 29-year-old infielder is hitting .321/.360/.443 in 115 plate appearances since being acquired in a minor league trade with the A’s in May, earning him the starting second base job of late.

Mondesí is making a $3.045MM arbitration salary. He’ll be a free agent at year’s end and could be limited to minor league offers if he doesn’t make it to the diamond this season.

Red Sox Release Dan Altavilla

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The Red Sox have released right-hander Dan Altavilla, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The righty will now head to the open market in search of his next opportunity.

Altavilla, now 30, signed a two-year minor league deal with the Sox going into last year. That was a reflection of the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2021 while with the Padres. He was outrighted by that club and became a free agent at season’s end but wasn’t likely to be able to provide too much in 2022, which led to the two-year deal with Boston. Such deals are somewhat common for players facing long rehabs, allowing the player to lock in some money and access team facilities while giving the club some longer control over their services.

The righty didn’t make it into any official action last year and began 2023 on the injured list as well. He finally began a rehab assignment over a month ago and made eight appearances in the minor leagues since then. He tossed 12 innings in those, allowing four earned runs for an ERA of 3.00. However, his 14.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate were both uninspiring in that small sample. It seems the Sox didn’t have much confidence in him providing much value to them down the stretch and have let him go.

He could still get chances elsewhere based on his pre-Tommy John track record. He made 119 appearances in the majors from 2016 to 2021, split between the Mariners and Padres. He had a 4.03 ERA in that time, with a high 12.1% walk rate but a strong 26.1% strikeout rate. He averaged around 97 mph on his fastball for much of that span and was able to touch triple digits at times. If he’s able to get himself back on track and earn a roster spot, he’ll have the potential to be retained for multiple years as his service time count is currently at four years and 63 days.

Joely Rodriguez’s Season In Jeopardy Due To Recurring Hip Pain

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Left-hander Joely Rodriguez has been shut down due to continued discomfort in his hip, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne (Twitter link) and other reporters.  Rodriguez has already been on the 15-day injured list since July 29 due to his hip problem, and Cora acknowledged that the southpaw might have thrown his last pitch of the 2023 campaign.

It has been an injury-marred year for Rodriguez, who has tossed only 11 innings in his first season in Boston.  The lefty signed a one-year free agent deal last winter worth $2MM in guaranteed money, yet he suffered a Grade 2 oblique strain during Spring Training that delayed his season debut until May 17.  Rodriguez then missed another month due to shoulder inflammation, returning to action on July 8 and appearing in six games before his latest IL stint.

There was quite a gulf in Rodriguez’s performance in between IL visits, as he had an ugly 18.00 ERA over his five games and four innings prior to his shoulder-related injury absence.  In July, however, Rodriguez was much sharper, with seven scoreless innings and no walks over the six appearances before his hip injury sent him to the sidelines.  It works out to a 6.55 ERA for the season, and Rodriguez might not get a chance to improve on that total if his hip problem does indeed result in a permanent shutdown.

Rodriguez’s contract contains a 2024 club option worth $4.25MM, or the Red Sox can buy out that option for $500K.  Given the string of injuries, it certainly doesn’t seem like Boston will exercise that option, so Rodriguez is likely to be headed back to free agency.  Entering his age-32 season and with an injury-riddled 2023 behind him, Rodriguez may have to settle for a minor league deal or another low-guarantee MLB contract on the open market this winter, even if he can make it back for a few more innings near the end of Boston’s season.

The Sox have been looking for left-handed relief options for much of the year due to Rodriguez’s frequent absences, but it seems as though they have landed on a pair of solid lefties in Brennan Bernardino and Chris Murphy.  The bullpen as a whole got another boost today when Garrett Whitlock was activated from the 15-day IL, and Whitlock threw two scoreless innings and picked up the win in Boston’s 6-3 victory over the Tigers.

It was Whitlock’s first outing since July 3 due to a bout of right elbow inflammation, and the Sox plan to use him as a multi-inning reliever rather than a starter.  Whitlock has been much more effective as a reliever than as a starter over the last three seasons, plus the Red Sox also have Tanner Houck lined up for starting duty when Houck returns from his own IL stint.  Cora told Browne and company that Houck is slated to make one more minor league rehab start before being activated from the IL next week.

Red Sox Outright Dinelson Lamet

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On Saturday, August 12, the Boston Red Sox sent Dinelson Lamet outright to Triple-A Worcester, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. This comes four days after the right-hander was designated for assignment. He will have the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency, though it’s not yet clear if he’s chosen to do so.

Lamet began the 2023 season in the Colorado Rockies organization, appearing in 16 games for the big league club. He posted a 12.66 ERA in 12 appearances out of the bullpen, and despite his struggles, the Rockies tried to transition him into a starting role. He put together a 10.80 ERA across four starts, and he was ultimately released after a four-inning, eight-run blow-up against the Braves.

Following his release, Lamet signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox and was assigned to Triple-A. The 31-year-old made five appearances (four starts) for Worcester, pitching to a 3.72 ERA in 19 1/3 innings. The Red Sox selected his contract on August 7, and he appeared in one game for the club, giving up four hits and three runs in two innings of work. He was DFA’d on Wednesday to make room for on the 40-man roster for Kyle Barraclough, another veteran right-handed arm and Lamet’s teammate from Triple-A.

It’s been a difficult few years for Lamet, who once looked like a promising member of the San Diego Padres’ core. He made his MLB debut in 2017, making 21 starts for the Padres. He threw 114 1/3 innings with a 4.57 ERA and 4.03 SIERA. He lost his 2018 season recovering from Tommy John surgery but came back strong in the second half of 2019, making 14 starts with a 4.07 ERA and 3.61 SIERA. He was even better during the shortened 2020 season, posting a 2.09 ERA in 12 starts. His ERA ranked third among qualified NL starters and finished fourth in voting for the NL Cy Young.

Unfortunately, things went south in 2021. An elbow injury that popped up at the end of the 2020 season kept him on the injured list for most of April, and forearm injuries plagued him as the year went on. The Padres eventually moved him to the bullpen, keeping him there in 2022. He continued to struggle with injury and inconsistency, and San Diego eventually flipped him to the Brewers at the trade deadline as a small piece in the Josh Hader deal. Milwaukee would designate him for assignment days later.

The Rockies scooped up Lamet for their own bullpen, where he had considerably more success. In 19 appearances, he pitched to a 4.05 ERA and 2.94 SIERA. After the season, he agreed to a one-year, $5 million deal with Colorado to avoid his final year of arbitration. The Rockies are still on the hook for that since they released Lamet earlier in the year.  Lamet has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his remaining salary, meaning it’s possible he’ll return to the open market in the coming days.

Yu Chang Accepts Outright Assignment

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Red Sox infielder Yu Chang went unclaimed on outright waivers after being designated for assignment on Tuesday, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. According to Cotillo, Chang has decided to accept the assignment and report to Triple-A Worcester.

The righty-hitting infielder could’ve elected free agency, since he has more than three years of MLB service. Players with less than five years of service time would forfeit their guaranteed salary in rejecting an outright, however. Chang is guaranteed $850K on the offseason pact he inked with Boston. With roughly $238K still to be paid out, the 27-year-old will head to Triple-A.

Chang was pushed into regular shortstop duty early in the season thanks to Trevor Story’s elbow injury. Chang played well defensively but was in a massive slump at the plate for a few weeks. His regular run was cut short when he broke the hamate bone in his left wrist on a swing, costing him around two and a half months.

Boston reinstated Chang from the injured list in early July. His offensive struggles continued, as he managed only a .180/.219/.361 line through 65 trips to the dish. Story’s return this week pushed Chang off the roster entirely.

Over parts of five big league campaigns, the Taiwan native is a .204/.265/.359 hitter. Public defensive metrics have rated him highly throughout the infield, but Chang has never found a consistent footing at the plate. He owns a .260/.333/.426 mark over five Triple-A seasons. Chang joins Christian Arroyo — himself outrighted off the roster just last weekend — David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez among the middle infielders in Worcester. If the Sox don’t re-select his contract before season’s end, Chang would reach minor league free agency in the fall.

Red Sox Reinstate Chris Sale From 60-Day Injured List

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The Red Sox announced that they have reinstated left-hander Chris Sale from the 60-day injured list, with fellow lefty Brandon Walter optioned in a corresponding move. The 40-man roster previously had a vacancy but is now full. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the moves prior to the official announcement. Sale will start tonight’s game against the Tigers.

Sale, 34, was once one of the best pitchers in the majors but his health has been the primary focus in recent years. He required Tommy John surgery in 2020, wiping out that season and most of 2021 as well. In 2022, a stress reaction in his ribs kept him out until July. He returned but fractured a finger when he was struck by a comebacker. While on the injured list for that ailment, he broke his wrist in a bicycle accident.

Here in 2023, it was relatively smooth sailing for a while. He tossed 59 innings over 11 starts, allowing 4.58 earned runs per nine innings but he probably deserved better. He struck out 28.5% of batters faced and walked 6%, but his .315 batting average on balls in play and 69.4% strand rate were both a bit on the unlucky side. Metrics like his 3.69 FIP and 3.47 SIERA painted a rosier picture of his season than his ERA.

In early June, he was placed on the 15-day injured list due to shoulder inflammation, though he was later moved to the 60-day IL with his condition described as a stress reaction in his shoulder blade. That has kept him out of action until now, just a bit beyond the 60-day minimum.

What the Sox will get from Sale at this point remains to be seen. His results earlier in the year were decent, but he’s already pitched more innings than in any season since 2019. Perhaps he will run into workload concerns, though his rotation mate James Paxton shows that’s not necessarily the case. The latter has thrown 80 1/3 innings this year with a 3.36 ERA after missing almost all of the previous three campaigns. Sale has one more guaranteed year remaining on his extension with a $27.5MM salary for 2024 and a $20MM club/vesting option for 2025.

Sale and Paxton figure to hold down two rotation spots for now, with Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford in the other three. Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck are both on rehab assignments right now and could factor into that mix soon, though manager Alex Cora recently said there’s “a good chance” Whitlock will be used as a multi-inning reliever upon his return.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The scorching hot Mariners (2:15)
  • The ice cold Angels (6:20)
  • The Rangers will be without Josh Jung for a while, impacting them and the Rookie of the Year race (8:45)
  • Shane McClanahan could be out for the year and maybe part of 2024 as well (13:15)
  • Yankees put Carlos Rodón back on the injured list (18:35)
  • Red Sox get Trevor Story back (21:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Any chance that the Cubs try to sign Cody Bellinger to a long term deal? (24:35)
  • Of all the players on the Dodgers’ injured list, which will have the most immediate impact both now and for the postseason not named Clayton Kershaw? (30:15)
  • Are the Angels’ manager and general managers jobs respectively in jeopardy if they fail to make the playoffs? (33:25)

Check out our past episodes!

Red Sox Release Richard Bleier

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The Red Sox announced that left-hander Richard Bleier, who was designated for assignment on Monday, has been released.

Bleier, 36, came over to the Sox in the offseason deal that sent Matt Barnes to the Marlins. That transaction hasn’t worked out especially well for either side, as Barnes allowed 5.48 earned runs per nine innings before undergoing hip surgery in July that he seems unlikely to return from this season. Bleier, meanwhile, made 27 appearances for Boston this year with a 5.28 ERA and has now been cut from the roster.

The southpaw had signed a contract extension while with the Marlins prior to the 2022 season, a pact that followed his 2.95 ERA over 68 appearances the year prior. The two-year, $6MM deal covered 2022, which was supposed to be his final arbitration season, as well as 2023 and came with a club option for 2024. He was paid $2.25MM last year, is earning $3.5MM this year with the 2024 option valued at $3.75MM with a $250K buyout.

Bleier went on to have a solid 3.55 ERA last year before this year’s disappointing results. There’s still over $1MM left to be paid out on that deal, as well as the buyout on the option. The combination of that money and his struggles this year meant that no club was going to claim him on waivers and take on that contract. But he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining the money, so the Sox have simply skipped the formalities and sent him to the open market. They will still be on the hook for the remainder of the contract.

He’ll now be free to sign with any club, who would only be responsible for paying him the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Sox pay. Despite his 2023 numbers, he will likely still garner interest. He had a 3.09 ERA over 144 appearances in the 2020-2022 period and his peripherals this year aren’t drastically different. His 55.2% ground ball rate in this season is shy of his 60.5% rate in the previous three years, but not by much. His 3.8% walk rate is right in line with the 3.9% mark from the preceding seasons. His 12.1% strikeout rate is certainly low, but even in the more successful 2020-2022 period he was only at 16.9%.

Bleier’s inflated ERA this year is likely due to a couple of factors. His 65.8% strand rate is shy of his own career rate and league average, pushing some more runs across. On a related note, his 17.9% rate of fly balls leaving the yard is a career high. He has a 4.25 SIERA on the year that’s over a full run better than his ERA and closer to his career marks.

Now that the trade deadline has passed, teams have few options for adding talent and depth to their systems. Since Bleier has a track record of success and comes with virtually no financial cost, he’s likely to latch on somewhere.

Red Sox Designate Dinelson Lamet For Assignment

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1:30pm: The Red Sox have now officially announced these moves.

10:08am: The Red Sox are planning to designate right-hander Dinelson Lamet for assignment as part of a series of roster moves, reports MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith. His spot on the roster will go to veteran righty Kyle Barraclough, whose contract is being selected from Triple-A Worcester. Boston is also set to recall lefty Brandon Walter from Worcester, with righty Nick Robertson being optioned there in his place.

Lamet’s stay on Boston’s big league roster will prove extremely brief. The former Padres and Rockies hurler was only just selected to the Majors two days ago. He appeared in one game, serving up three runs on three hits and a walk with one strikeout and a wild pitch in two innings of work.

Lamet was a legitimate Cy Young contender during the shortened 2020 season, but injuries have been a major issue for the 31-year-old righty in the seasons since. He’s encountered a biceps strain, a UCL sprain, forearm inflammation and a hip injury that required a “cleanup” procedure in the years since that scintillating 2020 effort (wherein he posted a 2.09 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate in a dozen starts).

Including this brief, unsightly stop with the BoSox, Lamet has a 6.81 ERA in his past 107 big league innings. While he had pitched decently over in Worcester prior to his call to the big leagues, Lamet will make a quick exit in favor of a fresh arm — fellow veteran hurler Barraclough.

The 33-year-old Barraclough has appeared in 288 big league games, all coming out of the bullpen, and posted a 3.61 ERA with a very strong 28.9% strikeout rate but also a woeful 14% walk rate. The bulk of his Major League success came early in his career with the Marlins, from 2015-18. Since that time, he’s logged just 55 2/3 innings while pitching to a 5.17 ERA.

Interestingly, the Red Sox have been using Barraclough as a starter in Worcester, and the experiment has gone quite well. Seven of his eight appearances since signing out of the independent Atlantic League have been starts, and Barraclough has recorded a sharp 2.57 ERA in 42 innings. Granted, his strikeout rate is down considerably (17.8%), and walks remain an issue (11.9%). The Sox either see more to like in Barraclough than Lamet or simply need another fresh arm after Kutter Crawford was knocked out of the game in the fourth inning yesterday, leading to three relievers covering 5 2/3 innings. Lamet and Robertson combined to cover five of those frames.

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, the Sox’ only options with Lamet are to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. He has more than five years of big league service, so he’ll be able to reject a minor league assignment and become a free agent even if he goes unclaimed. Because of that service time, he’d have been a free agent at season’s end even if he’d stuck on Boston’s roster and performed well for the remainder of the year.

Barraclough, meanwhile, entered the season with 4.089 years of Major League service. The most he’ll be able to accrue from here on out is 54 days, which would leave him shy of five years of service, thus making him eligible to be retained another two seasons via arbitration. There’s quite a ways to go before that’s even a consideration, and it’s likelier that Barraclough will have a brief stay on the roster himself, but that remaining club control is at least worth noting in the event that he sustains his Triple-A pace in the big leagues.

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