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Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford

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With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.

Here’s the latest on the relief market:

  • The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel’s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
  • With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
  • Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.

6 To 7 Teams Interested In Justin Wilson

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With left-hander Zach Britton having come off the free-agent market Saturday, Justin Wilson is arguably the most desirable southpaw reliever available. Interest in Wilson is high, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports six to seven teams are vying for him.

The Mets are the only known team who have eyed Wilson, a 31-year-old who has been largely effective since he cracked the majors with the Pirates in 2012. Also a former Yankee, Tiger and Cub, Wilson has tossed upward of 50 innings in each of his six full big league seasons, and has notched a 3.33 ERA/3.30 FIP with 9.88 K/9, 4.03 BB/9 and a 46.4 percent groundball rate. Along the way, Wilson has been useful against both left- and right-handed hitters, having held the former to a .239/.319/.345 line and the latter to an even worse mark (.210/.305/.323).

Unfortunately for Wilson, he hit the market at a somewhat inopportune time, as he wasn’t at top form over the previous two seasons. While Wilson prevented runs at a solid clip (3.43 ERA/3.51 FIP in 112 2/3 frames) and struck out hitters at an even more impressive rate (11.9 per nine), his control and groundball numbers took significant steps backward. Wilson walked 5.43 batters per nine in each of those seasons and, after generating grounders 54.9 percent of the time in 2016, fell into the mid-30s from 2017-18. Still, though, the hard-throwing Wilson has seldom been prone to the home run ball, and he has limited damaging contact by posting a double-digit infield fly percentage in each of his seasons.

Bullpen Rumors/Notes: Kimbrel, Red Sox, Phillies, Warren, Wilson, Mets, Angels

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Some more rumblings on the market for relievers…

  • Prior to this afternoon’s agreement between the Phillies and righty David Robertson, WEEI’s Rob Bradford offered a bit of clarity on the market for Craig Kimbrel. As of this morning, the star closer’s market “seemed to hinge” on whether or not the Phillies would be able to secure the services of either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Either signing, it seemed, would move Kimbrel off the table for Philadelphia, though today’s inking of Robertson may have done just that. Boston, then, seems a clear favorite for the 30-year-old fireballer, with Atlanta still lurking at the fringes, but the “stupid-money”-wielding Fightins can’t entirely be ruled out.
  • The Mets have some interest in right-hander Adam Warren, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), but a match between the two sides doesn’t appear to be that likely at the moment. Warren, according to Martino, has stronger interest from other clubs, and the Mets are exploring several different bullpen options, including left-hander Justin Wilson. The 31-year-old Warren has a 2.72 ERA in 109 innings across the past two seasons and is accustomed to pitching in multi-inning stints in relief, thus making him an appealing option for many clubs. Wilson, meanwhile, has posted solid ERA marks and huge strikeout totals over the past couple of seasons but has seen his control of the strike zone completely evaporate (5.43 BB/9).
  • Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Angels “prefer” to assemble bullpen pieces of the low-cost variety. With hardly a household name in the bunch, early-offseason speculation abounded with respect to Los Angeles and top-market pen arms, but signings of the type don’t appear to be in the cards for Billy Eppler and crew this offseason. Top 2018 perfomer Jose Alvarez has already been shipped to Philadelphia, so the Angels will likely rely on some assortment of Taylor Cole, Luis Garcia, Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles, Cam Bedrosian, and Justin Anderson (all of whom, save for Robles during his stint with the Mets, excelled at limiting the homer last season) to hold down the team’s fort in the late innings.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

NL Central Notes: Wilson, Cubs, Pham, Hurdle

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The struggles of left-hander Justin Wilson following a trade to the Cubs perplexed not only Chicago evaluators but execs throughout the league, writes Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required and highly recommended). Sharma spoke to both Cubs manager Joe Maddon and GM Jed Hoyer about Wilson’s troubles, and Maddon made it clear that he views Wilson as an important part of the ’pen for the upcoming 2018 season. Hoyer, meanwhile, acknowledged that some of the blame likely falls on the organization, especially considering that these sort of struggles have happened in the past. (Sharma points to Adam Warren as one prominent example.) “…[W]e’ve had a number of guys who have come in and struggled beyond what they’ve done in the past,” Hoyer tells Sharma. “That’s something we have looked at and will continue to look at and talk about how we ’onboard’ guys, so to speak. … We’ve been, candidly, somewhat frustrated by it and we’ll keep working on it.”

More from the division…

  • Patrick Mooney of The Athletic argues that the time is right for the Cubs to make a big splash on the free-agent market. Big spenders like the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers are striving to dip below the luxury tax, while several other clubs throughout the league are also operating under financial constraint. Within their division, the Pirates could be on the verge of a rebuild, as trade rumors swirl around Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison. Meanwhile, the Reds don’t yet look to be ready to push back into contention. Mooney notes that the Cubs are remaining in touch with agents for Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, though the Chicago brass doesn’t seem to have Lance Lynn as high on its list of priorities, he adds.
  • There’s little precedent for Tommy Pham’s enormous breakout season at the age of 29, writes SB Nation’s Craig Edwards. Pham posted a roughly six-win season for the Cardinals (5.9 fWAR, 6.4 rWAR) last year on the strength of a .306/.411/.520 batting line through 530 plate appearances. However, he’d provided minimal value to the Cards over his first 136 games in the bigs after progressing slowly through the minor leagues. Edwards looks for historical context for Pham’s breakout, noting that there’ve been 48 outfielders with a WAR between five and seven in their age-29 season over the past 70 years. Of that group, only three — Jose Bautista, Ryan Ludwick and former Tigers outfielder Charlie Maxwell — broke out with as limited a track record as Pham. It’s an interesting look at a unique breakout season that also attempts to gauge how Pham will perform in 2018 and beyond.
  • Pirates skipper Clint Hurdle recently sat down for a Q&A with Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com. Hurdle discusses his journey from a 10-year playing career to a minor league manager to a coach and skipper in the big leagues. Hurdle shares an anecdote from his time with the Rockies in which he thought he was on the verge of being dismissed as hitting coach when he was in reality being promoted to skipper. The two also discuss Pittsburgh’s return to postseason contention earlier this decade after a prolonged drought, as well as the recent rough patch over the past couple of seasons. It’s well worth a read — particularly for fans of the Pirates and Rockies.

Central Notes: Votto, Kinsler, Twins Pitching Targets

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Just in case there was any doubt, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes in response to a fan inquiry that there’s no indication whatsoever that Reds first baseman Joey Votto will end up being moved this winter. The polished batsman, who very nearly took home National League MVP honors for the 2017 season, has given every indication that “he doesn’t want to leave the Reds,” says Sheldon, and can control his own fate through a full no-trade clause.

  • Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler does not enjoy quite so much control over his own fate, but does have a ten-team no-trade list that was drawn up at the end of the 2017 campaign.* Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription link) has the latest on his interesting trade candidacy, including a look at the feasibility of a move to third for the veteran — which some teams have reportedly considered as they weigh an offer to acquire him. At present, it is not publicly known which teams have contemplated that possibility or — yet more importantly — which are among those that cannot acquire Kinsler without his consent. The Detroit organization would obviously need to work with Kinsler and his representatives if it were to find a match with one of the ten protected rivals, but Strang reports that, at least as of last week, that subject has not yet been broached. As we discussed in examining his potential market yesterday, there are perhaps only a few very clear trade matches on paper at this point, though certainly a fair number of others could be imagined depending upon a variety of factors. Kinsler’s no-trade rights may not come into play at all, but might also afford him an opportunity to nix a move if it is not to his liking.
  • While the Twins are said to be taking a look at a variety of controllable starters, there’s “no indication” at this point that they have engaged with the Rays on Chris Archer or the Marlins on Dan Straily, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). It stands to reason, though, that both would at least draw internal consideration. The former is quite a lofty target for any team, as he’d draw huge interest if he’s made available in trade talks. The latter is a useful hurler in his own right after turning in solid results for two consecutive years. Straily’s affordable control would surely hold some appeal to Minnesota, though for the same reason the Marlins will likely set forth a relatively steep asking price for a starter who is noted more for his steadiness and contract than anything approaching dominant peripherals.
  • The Twins will need to chase down some relief arms, too. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports on his podcast (audio link) that the club has engaged the Padres on Brad Hand and the Rays on Alex Colome. Minnesota was previously reported to have chatted with the Reds about Raisel Iglesias, and these new names fit the same general profile as established late-inning arms with affordable remaining control. All will come with appropriately lofty price tags. Berardino also tweets that Cubs lefty Justin Wilson might represent a target for the Twins. Having struggled last year upon landing in Chicago, Wilson could conceivably become available, though that’s far from certain. Minnesota eyed the power southpaw in the past, says Berardino, though that occurred before the current front office leadership came into office.

*An earlier version of this post wrongly suggested that Kinsler had not yet compiled his current no-trade list and mistakenly attributed that notion to Strang’s report. The error was ours and we apologize for any confusion.

Cubs Acquire Justin Wilson, Alex Avila

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TODAY: The deal is official, with both clubs announcing it. For Detroit, catcher John Hicks and righty Joe Jimenez will come up to fill the roster openings.

YESTERDAY, 11:45pm: The sides have completed the medical review, though an announcement is still forthcoming, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter links).

10:55pm: The Cubs are finalizing a deal to acquire two more pieces for the stretch run. If the swap is finalized, both southpaw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila will reportedly head from the Tigers to Chicago in exchange for infielder Jeimer Candelario and young shortstop Isaac Paredes, along with cash or a player to be named later.

[RELATED: Updated Cubs & Tigers Depth Charts]

Of course, the Chicago (N.L.) farm has been raided of late, with numerous talented players streaming onto the MLB roster as well as to other organizations. The Cubbies are pushing the pedal to the floor once again, hoping to capitalize on a wave of momentum coming out of the All-Star break that has swept the defending World Series champs back into the NL Central lead.

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Though Wilson has perhaps elevated his profile this year, owing to a move into the ninth inning for the Tigers, he hasn’t really changed his baseline performance level. He still works off of a mid-to-upper-nineties heater and is generally slightly more successful against right-handed hitters than lefties. And ERA estimators still value him as a low-to-mid-3’s performer.

That said, there are some notable changes. Through 40 1/3 innings this year, Wilson carries a career-high 14.3% swinging-strike rate and has averaged 12.3 K/9 — well over any prior full-season mark. He’s also allowing more walks (3.6 BB/9) and home runs (1.12 per nine) than usual, with less grounders (38.4%) than ever before. A general shift northward with his pitch location seems to explain the differences, though it’s hard to say it has made him a materially better pitcher.

Regardless of whether one prefers the Wilson of old or the current iteration, he looks to be a high-quality reliever at a bargain rate. He’ll step into a setup role alongside righties Carl Edwards, Koji Uehara, Pedro Strop, and Hector Rondon. Chicago currently features two other southpaws, Brian Duensing and Mike Montgomery, with the former likely continuing to function as a lefty specialist and the latter as a long reliever. That said, Wilson makes for a ninth reliever when right-handed Justin Grimm is counted, so it seems someone will need to depart the active roster. Edwards and Grimm are both optionable, but the latter is likeliest to go given his struggles this year; his 40-man spot could also be in jeopardy.

Wilson will take home just $2.7MM this year and comes with another season of arb control. Though he’ll surely command a healthy raise, particularly given that he has picked up a few saves in Detroit, Wilson will promise to deliver surplus value over his salary in 2018 as well.

Not to be lost in the shuffle is Avila, who is putting on his best season since 2011 at thirty years of age. He’ll represent a quality option to share time with young stalwart Willson Contreras for the remainder of the year while Victor Caratini goes back down to finish his development at Triple-A. Over 263 plate appearances thus far in 2017, Avila owns a .271/.392/.472 batting line. While he has benefited from a .375 BABIP, Avila has traditionally carried lofty batting averages on balls in play. And he has finally returned to the power he showed as a younger player (11 home runs, .202 isolated slugging) while continuing to carry an outstanding walk rate.

Avila delivered plenty of value to the Tigers for the one-year, $2MM contract he signed over the winter after dealing with health problems in recent campaigns. That deal, of course, was agreed to with his father — Tigers GM Al Avila, who also engineered this swap. Whether the elder Avila can pull off any further trades before tomorrow’s deadline remains unclear, but this is another meaningful deal for an organization that hopes to get younger and trim some salary before the start of the 2018 season.

The aim in Detroit, of course, is to field a contender in the relatively near term without requiring the kind of budget-busting expenditures that had become commonplace in recent seasons. Finding affordable, controllable asset is the key to such an undertaking, and Avila will hope he can accmplish that here.

Candelario currently sits just inside the top 100 prospects leaguewide, according to MLB.com, which calls him a serviceable defender at third who can be a quality offensive threat. He’s also ready to contribute in the majors right now, having briefly cracked the bigs in each of the past two seasons. The 23-year-old owns a .266/.361/.507 slash through 330 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

While Candelario may be seen by some as the headliner, Baseball America recently tabbed the 18-year-old Paredes as the better prospect among the two, reflecting that outlet’s lower grade on the former and higher grade on the latter. A well-regarded defensive shortstop from Mexico, Paredes has slashed .261/.341/.399 with seven home runs this year through 380 plate appearances at the Class A level.

This transaction puts down a notable market marker with several other top lefties still available via trade. Zach Britton of the Orioles is more expensive and comes with equivalent control rights to Wilson, though perhaps Baltimore will hold out for a greater return given Britton’s sheer excellence over the prior two seasons. And the Padres are said to be placing a big asking price on Brad Hand, who comes with an additional season of control and has emerged as a top-quality reliever.

Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first said a deal was close (via Twitter), after Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted the Cubs were “closing in” on Wilson and that Candelario may be involved, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) confirming Candelario’s inclusion. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand noted Avila’s involvement on Twitter, with Ken Rosenthal saying he would indeed go to Chicago (via Twitter). Bruce Levine of 670theScore.com reported the inclusion of Paredes on Twitter. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweeted the cash/PTBNL detail to complete the prospective swap, with Heyman tweeting its finalization.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs “Close” To Acquiring Justin Wilson

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9:51pm: The Cubs are “close” to striking a deal with the Tigers that would deliver Wilson to Chicago, according to Heyman (via Twitter).

Candelario would indeed headline the package, per Nightengale (Twitter link), with the Cubs also landing Avila, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). Infield prospect Isaac Paredes would also be in the package, per Bruce Levine of 670theScore.com (Twitter link).

9:25pm: The Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, and Nationals are the four teams still vying to acquire Wilson, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter link).

Those four teams have been connected to Wilson at various points in the recent past, so it’s not surprising to see that they are now the apparent finalists. It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that the Nats already have quite a few lefties, including the recently acquired Sean Doolittle. And Houston is said to be somewhat more intrigued by Britton, as Sherman affirmed today on Twitter.

The Indians could yet be a “dark horse” on Wilson, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets, though it’s unclear as yet whether the AL Central rivals have engaged in earnest.

7:58pm: There’s active bidding between the Cubs and Dodgers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

Candelario is in play in a deal that could send both Wilson and catcher Alex Avila to Chicago, Feinsand adds on Twitter. Avila has long been seen as a target for the Cubs.

7:47pm: There’s some buzz that the Cubs may be the favorite to land Wilson. MLB.com’s Phil Rogers noted Chicago’s ongoing interest on Twitter, Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network said the Cubs were “working hard” to land Wilson (via Twitter), and now Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Cubbies are “closing in” on a deal for Wilson.

Notably, top Chicago prospect Jeimer Candelario is out of the lineup tonight, per Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register (via Twitter), with Sherman suggesting Detroit has keen interest in him.

7:29pm: The Tigers are expected to make a trade involving lefty Justin Wilson this evening, sources tell MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Just where the southpaw might be headed isn’t yet clear, however.

Wilson, 29, has drawn interest from numerous contending teams. With the Tigers having already traded away star outfielder J.D. Martinez, there’s little question that the club is willing to move its best reliever.

With a favorable contract situation, it’s unsurprising that as many as five teams are still pursuing Wilson at this point, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The offers have increased steadily, so much as that it’s now certain that Wilson will be moved before the non-waiver trade deadline tomorrow.

It’s important to note, too, that Wilson is one of three premium lefties on the market, with Brad Hand of the Padres and Zach Britton of the Orioles also seemingly available for the right price. The interplay between those three, who are drawing many of the same suitors, will be an important storyline to watch unfold tonight and early tomorrow.

Red Sox, Mets Discussing Addison Reed Trade

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5:32pm: Boston has also “kicked the tires” on Twins righty Brandon Kintzler, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). The interest in Kintzler was noted recently, though it’s notable that the sides are evidently still in touch to some degree with the deadline drawing near. Still, it seems he and others are not the top priority for the Sox.

2:47pm: There’s one other team that is also a “serious suitor” for Reed at this time, tweets Newsday’s Marc Carig. Still, though, nothing is close at present, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford notes on Twitter.

2:01pm: Earlier this morning, MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Mets closer Addison Reed was a “focus” for the Red Sox, and there’s increasing talk about Reed potentially heading to Boston in a deal. Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com reports that talks between the two sides have begun to heat up, though a deal isn’t yet close to finalization. ESPN’s Buster Olney adds that there are “about five” teams left in the running for Reed, though the Red Sox are the only one he specifies by name.

The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, meanwhile, reports that the Sox are focused solely on late-inning relief help at this point. According to Speier, Reed is “at or near the top” of Boston’s wishlist, while deals for left-handers Justin Wilson (Tigers) and Brad Hand (Padres) are unlikely.

The 28-year-old Reed has dominated opposing hitters since donning a Mets jersey in 2015, working to a pristine 2.09 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9 in 142 innings. He’s spent much of the season closing for the Mets with Jeurys Familia unavailable (first due to a suspension, then an injury), but he’d shift into a setup role for Craig Kimbrel were the Sox and Mets to complete a deal. Reed would be complemented by righties Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and Joe Kelly (who is nearing a return from the disabled list) as well as left-handers Fernando Abad and Robby Scott. A free agent at season’s end, Reed is earning $7.75MM in 2017 and is still owed roughly $2.7MM of that sum through the end of the regular season.

Deadline Chatter: Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, Jays, Rangers, Angels

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The Marlins “are extremely open to discussing” a Dee Gordon trade, reports Jerry Crasnick of ESPN (Twitter link). Gordon has been on teams’ radars in recent weeks, but now there’s “not much traffic” regarding the second baseman, per Crasnick. With roughly $41MM coming his way through 2021, the 29-year-old isn’t cheap, nor has he regained the effectiveness he showed from 2014-15. Gordon missed half of 2016 thanks to a performance-enhancing drug suspension and has slashed a meek .282/.323/.347 in 783 plate appearances dating back to last season. He has stolen 67 bases over that time, though, including 30 this year, and drawn plus marks in the field from defensive runs saved (eight) and Ultimate Zone Rating (8.1).

While a Gordon trade before Monday’s deadline may not be in the offing, it seems Marlins reserve catcher A.J. Ellis will switch uniforms. Along with the previously reported Cubs, the Rockies are in on the 36-year-old, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. With a .233/.314/.411 batting line, Rockies catchers have posted the worst wRC+ (45) in the majors this season. They’re looking for help behind the plate as a result, but Ellis hasn’t been a whole lot better than their choices with the bat (.232/.300/.341 in 91 PAs). Defensively, Ellis has had a rough pitch-framing season, per StatCorner, though he has outdone Rockies starter Tony Wolters in that regard. It seems the right-handed-hitting Ellis and the lefty-swinging Wolters would form a platoon.

More as the deadline nears:

  • While the Dodgers have come up as a potential landing spot for Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray or Justin Verlander, it appears for now that they’re likelier to acquire an impact reliever than a high-end starter, relays Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). On the subject of the Tigers’ Verlander, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter) that Los Angeles has focused less on him than reliever Justin Wilson in trade talks with Detroit. That isn’t surprising, as Verlander is on an onerous contract and unlikely to move before Monday.
  • The Blue Jays were reportedly “highly unlikely” to trade left-hander J.A. Happ as of two weeks ago, but now they’re open to offers, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag. The Jays aren’t aggressively shopping the 34-year-old, however, as he’s in the midst of another fine season and under control next season for a reasonable $13MM salary.
  • This season has been a struggle for Rangers first baseman/designated hitter Mike Napoli, but he’s garnering interest nonetheless, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, who tweets that “teams love him in the clubhouse.” The powerful Napoli has slugged 22 home runs and put up an excellent .258 ISO, though his .208/.287/.466 line through 336 PAs isn’t pretty. But the 35-year-old has gotten hot at the right time, having slashed .260/.329/.658 in 82 PAs this month. Napoli’s on a $6MM salary this year and has an $11MM club option (or a $2.5MM buyout) for 2018.
  • Calls have come in on the Angels’ resurgent relief trio of Bud Norris, David Hernandez and Yusmeiro Petit, and the Halos are willing to deal all of them, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd broke down their 2017 performances Friday in a piece focusing on available righty relievers.

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