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Today’s Arbitration Decisions

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The decision whether to offer your own free agent arbitration can affect your team in two ways: you may end up retaining a player you didn’t want, or you may score a draft pick or two as compensation.  With that in mind let’s run down the rumors regarding some Type A and B free agents.

  • The Red Sox plan on offering arbitration to Type B Eric Gagne.  Worst case scenario, they hang onto him for one more year.  Best case, they get a sandwich pick.
  • The Astros have to decide on Trever Miller and Mark Loretta.  Both are Type Bs, but the Astros might not want them back.  Richard Justice notes that the old Astro regime made a mistake not offering arbitration to Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.
  • The Angels decided not to offer arby to Bartolo Colon, because the most they could give him would be a 20% pay cut.  So best case scenario they could get him for one year, $11.2MM.  Colon is not a Type A or B, so there’s no compensation regardless.
  • The Phils will offer arb to Aaron Rowand but not Freddy Garcia.  Rowand is a Type A, Garcia a Type B.  It’s a no-brainer with Rowand, who will hopefully net them a first-round pick plus a supplemental depending on who he signs with.  With Garcia they risked getting burned as he might’ve accepted.   
  • The D’Backs will offer arbitration to Livan Hernandez, who will likely decline it to pursue a three-year deal.  He’s a Type B so they’ll snag a sandwich pick.
  • The Padres will offer arbitration to Michael Barrett, and Kevin Towers actually hopes he accepts.  No worries if he doesn’t – Barrett is a Type A.  The Friars will also offer arby to Mike Cameron and Doug Brocail.  Brocail nets them a sandwich pick for sure; Cameron still has a slight chance of accepting.
  • The Braves did not offer arb to Andruw Jones but did for Ron Mahay.  Both are Type Bs; I’m surprised they didn’t want to risk Andruw returning on a one-year deal.

Angels, Marlins At Cabrera Impasse

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The Angels are a bit frustrated in the Miguel Cabrera dealings.  According to Jayson Stark, they’ve told the Marlins to come swing by their suite whenever they’re ready to give a little on their demands.

In the deal for sure: Howie Kendrick and Jeff Mathis.  One of Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Nick Adenhart would be included as well.  However, the Fish want two of those starters.  The Halos won’t do it, but might be able to give one starter plus Reggie Willits.  Either way it’s going to be a major haul.

It wouldn’t be impossible to get Cabrera for three players, but they’d have to be damn good ones.  It’s always fascinating to watch the Marlins replenish their system.

Erik Bedard Rumors

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The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec has the latest regarding ace Erik Bedard.  Some rank Bedard as the best available starter, all-in-all – he’s under team control for longer than Johan Santana, doesn’t have no-trade rights, and has better stuff than Dan Haren.

  • The Orioles and Bedard’s agent never actually exchanged salary figures, and now contract extension talks have come to a stop.  Andy MacPhail isn’t concerned but no one seems to expect the O’s to pony up the money needed to retain their ace beyond 2009. Johan Santana should set the bar; Bedard may become a $20MM pitcher.
  • Zrebiec lists the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Angels, and Dodgers as teams that have inquired on Bedard.  It’s surprising to see the Red Sox omitted from that list.
  • The Mets made an offer: Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman, and perhaps Phil Humber.  That’s an OK starting point but the O’s could do better.
  • The Dodgers have also had talks with the O’s, with Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, and Clayton Kershaw coming up.  That’s certainly worth mulling over.

Padres Rumors: Cameron, Jenkins, Colon

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UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 10pm: Krasovic has an update on the Union-Tribune’s sports blog.  Cameron’s agent said tonight that he would decline the Padres’ offer of arbitration.  That doesn’t mean the Padres still can’t sign him, but it seems unlikely.  Krasovic also notes that the Friars are pursuing Japanese reliever Kazuo Fukumori.  As you know, they brought him in for a workout previously.  The Rockies and Red Sox have been linked to him in the past. 

FROM 11-28-07 at 10:40am:

Tim Sullivan and Tom Krasovic make are a productive tandem for Padres rumors.  Sullivan and Krasovic both posted new articles today.

  • Sullivan says the Padres will probably offer arbitration to Mike Cameron.  Cameron will then decide whether to accept by December 7th.  It wouldn’t make sense for the Padres to move on a center fielder until that is resolved.  It’s also possible that the Padres just sign Cameron to a two-year deal – they’re sitting on a counteroffer from Cameron’s camp.
  • The Padres admit to interest in Andruw Jones, but it seems like a longshot.  They probably won’t go past one year, and even if Jones accepts that it’s not a good ballpark to rebuild value.
  • Sullivan names other center field possibilities: Aaron Rowand, Gary Matthews Jr., Reggie Willits, and Coco Crisp.
  • As for left field, Krasovic notes that the Padres met with Geoff Jenkins yesterday.  That might allow Scott Hairston to move to center if all of the above options fail.
  • On the pitchiing front, Buster Olney notes that the Padres have expressed interest in Randy Wolf, Bartolo Colon, and Mark Prior.

Johan Santana Rumors

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UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 7:30pm: Jon Heyman chimes in on the Santana talks.  If the Red Sox continue to keep Ellsbury out of the deal, the Yankees may have the best offer with Hughes, Cabrera, and another pitcher.  The inclusion of Ellsbury would swing it toward the Sox.  It appears the two rivals are battling going head to head on this one.

FROM 11-28-07 at 11:15am:

Let’s review the Johan Santana situation, because there’s been plenty flying around the last couple of days.

  • Yankees: Jon Heyman said yesterday the Twins would want Melky Cabrera plus one of Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy.  LaVelle E. Neal III confirmed the Yankees as one of three teams that have actually had trade talks with the Twins about Santana.  It’s been suggested that Santana would be open to signing a long-term deal in New York.  Aaron Gleeman analyzes Yankees/Santana scenarios here.  Also, Lisa Kennelly and Ed Price are saying Chamberlain and Robinson Cano are untouchable in these talks.  So think Melky and Hughes.  By the way, the Yankees let Aaron Rowand’s agent know that they’ll be interested if they trade the Melkman.
  • Red Sox: The Sox are another of those teams confirmed to have had trade talks about Santana with the Twins.  Heyman said it would take Buchholz or Lester plus Ellsbury.  The Sox want to substitiute Crisp for Ellsbury.  UPDATE: Neal says Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, and perhaps Kevin Youkilis have been discussed as well.
  • Angels: The third team confirmed to have had trade talks for Santana.  He’s not atop the Halos’ list though.  I suggested earlier that a package of Brandon Wood, Reggie Willits, and Nick Adenhart would work for the Twins, but seems too steep for one year of Santana.
  • Mets: The Mets have had talks with the Twins as well, according to Buster Olney.  It’s known that the Mets don’t want to include Jose Reyes or David Wright in a deal.  Makes sense.  Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, and Kevin Mulvey are the other names being tossed around.  But John Harper’s source isn’t so sure Reyes it out of the question, as that might be the only way the Mets can get Santana.
  • Mariners: Larry LaRue says the Twins would want Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, and Jeff Clement.
  • Dodgers:  Though they’ve been linked to Santana, he doesn’t seem to be on the frontburner.
  • Cubs: Long shot and first I’ve heard of it, but George King and Joel Sherman suggest the possibility.  Felix Pie would have to be involved.  Hard to see the Cubs signing Santana to a record-setting extension given their ownership situation.

Marlins Toy With Angels, Dodgers

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Angels owner Arte Moreno isn’t happy with the way the Marlins dealt with his club on the Miguel Cabrera negotiations.  Twice already the Angels thought they had deals only to have the Marlins come back at the last minute asking for more.  Moreno also believed this happened to the Dodgers and the Fish are playing the two teams off each other. 

None of this seems outside the realm of negotiation; it’s just curious that Moreno went public with it.  Perhaps that’s strategy, his way of telling the Marlins he won’t take any more BS.

Moreno said the Marlins’ demand is four players.  Three of them must be Major Leaguers and two pitchers.  If the Angels are to give up two good young pitchers, they won’t also include both Howie Kendrick and Jeff Mathis.

It hasn’t really been said but it seems like the Cabrera negotiations may stall now unless the Marlins come down a bit.  Or maybe some other dominoes will fall at the Winter Meetings and a team will get desperate.

Unfounded Rumors: Bonser, Morneau

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UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 10:50am: LaVelle E. Neal III and Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune looked into both of these rumors, and found nothing.

FROM 11-27-07 at 10:25pm:

We have seen some Unfounded Rumors come to fruition in the past; you never know.  No insult is intended towards the originators of these, but they are reports I have not been able to verify.  I know most of you just want rumors any way you can get them.

So there you go, a couple of Unfounded Rumors to mull over this evening.

Angels Interested In Johan Santana

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Hey, you can never have too much pitching right?  Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports that Johan Santana is on the Angels’ list.  They’re still all about Miguel Cabrera as Plan A and Miguel Tejada as Plan B, but they’ve inquired on Santana as well.  Jon Heyman actually mentioned the Halos as a Santana suitor yesterday afternoon, but it didn’t register with me.

DiGiovanna says the Twins would ask for a third baseman, center fielder, and pitcher for Santana.  Brandon Wood, Reggie Willits, and Nick Adenhart – is that too much?  Another hurdle might be getting Santana to approve a trade to the West Coast.

DiGiovanna adds that the Twins have interest in Gary Matthews Jr.  Could this be the mystery CF the Twins are close to acquiring?  Maybe not, since Matthews is expensive, old, and mediocre.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Nathan, Garza, Bedard

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Ken Rosenthal recently dished out a slew of fresh rumors for us to devour.

  • Rosenthal still believes that if the Twins trade Johan Santana, they will also trade Joe Nathan in a separate deal.  Back on November 11th, Rosenthal first suggested this might happen.  About a week ago, Joe Christensen reported that the Twins exchanged contract proposals with Nathan.  Nathan is in line to earn at least $15MM per season, if he wants full market value.  Rosenthal suggests the Brewers, Indians, Tigers, Cubs, and Red Sox as possible fits for Nathan.
  • The Angels may want to keep Gary Matthews Jr., given Vladimir Guerrero’s declining defensive abilities.  Also, Guerrero may soon get a contract extension in the $18MM per season range to put him in line with Torii Hunter.  His contract runs through 2009.
  • The Twins may be close to getting a center fielder, but it may not be Coco Crisp.  Another team is chasing Crisp – perhaps the White Sox? 
  • Melky Cabrera could be dealt independent and regardless of a Johan Santana deal.  The Braves may be interested; the Yanks would then move Johnny Damon back to center.
  • Matt Garza or Boof Bonser may be moved for a bat.  Probably not Delmon Young, but some young slugger.  The Rays also want to find a young shortstop to compete with Reid Brignac.
  • The Yanks don’t want to overpay for a free agent reliever – 3/12 seems their limit on the Riskes and Mahays of the world.
  • Back at the GM meetings, the Mets inquired on Erik Bedard.  The O’s are waiting to see what happens with Miguel Cabrera since they covet many of the prospects being discussed there. 

Heyman On Santana

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman has the latest on the Johan Santana trade talks.

  • The Twins want Melky Cabrera plus one of Chamberlain/Hughes/Kennedy from the Yankees.  If the Yanks can surrender Kennedy rather than Hughes or Joba, they’ve done a nice job.  Sounds like they would consider giving up Hughes though.
  • The Twins want one of Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester plus Jacoby Ellsbury.  Lester seems to be the only one of the three the Red Sox would part with, while they’d also be fine with sending Coco Crisp over.
  • Heyman names the Mets, Dodgers, Angels, and Mariners as interested parties.  First I’ve heard of the Ms or Halos being in the mix.  Regarding the Dodgers, check out an interview with Ned Colletti.  For what it’s worth, he doesn’t seem anxious to deal 3-5 kids for a guy like Santana or Miguel Cabrera.

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