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Free Agent Stock Watch: Vicente Padilla

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Vicente Padilla wrapped 2009 up in style, turning in two strong postseason starts after a big finish to the regular season in L.A. The result: a one-year $5.025MM deal. Padilla's about to hit free agency again, but he's out for the season, so he won't head into the offseason with the same momentum he did a year ago. Here's the outlook for the Dodgers righty:

The Pros

  • Padilla posted 8.0 K/9 with 2.3 BB/9 and a 4.07 ERA.
  • His average fastball velocity (92.4 mph) hasn't been this high since 2005.
  • He doesn't turn 33 until later this month, so he's still relatively young even though he has 12 years of big league experience.
  • The neck injury that has sidelined Padilla probably won't require surgery.
  • He is projected to be a Type B free agent, so he won't cost a draft pick.
  • Padilla's tenure in Texas ended badly a year ago, but he has since earned Joe Torre's trust, which reflects well.

The Cons

  • He'll miss the rest of the season with a bulging disk in his neck.
  • A forearm injury sidelined Padilla earlier in the season, so he made just 16 total starts in 2010.
  • Padilla didn't replicate the strong finish he had a year ago and posted a 10.13 ERA in his final three starts.

The Verdict

The Dodgers don't seem likely to offer arbitration, since they didn't make such offers to Padilla or any other free agents a year ago. Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda are hitting free agency, too, so the Dodgers will be looking for starting pitching this winter. Some teams may shy away from Padilla because he missed so much time with injuries, but his strong performance should be enough to earn him $3-4MM on a one-year deal this offseason, whether it's with the Dodgers or not.

Dodgers Notes: Ethier, Kemp, Barajas, Gibbons

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With the Padres, Giants and Rockies all battling for the playoffs and the Diamondbacks knee-deep in a GM search, don't forget about that fifth team in the NL West.  Here are some news items from Dodger Stadium…

  • GM Ned Colletti tells Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com that the Dodgers will be more active this winter than they were during their relatively quiet 2009-10 offseason.
  • According to CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam (Twitter link), Andre Ethier "has told some [he] would love to come to Boston."  McAdam doesn't elaborate on whether or not Ethier really wants out of L.A. or that the Dodgers would consider moving him, but in another tweet McAdam writes that he has "a feeling, that given the mess the franchise is in, nothing [is] off table."  
  • Since the Dodgers are in the market for a third outfielder next season, Jon Weisman of ESPNLosAngeles.com suggests they could acquire a center fielder and move Matt Kemp to right.  Kemp has delivered a -17.7 UZR/150 in center this season after being an above-average fielder in 2009.
  • Weisman also writes that Rod Barajas and Jay Gibbons have performed well enough to be brought back by the club in 2011.  Gibbons, for his part, is on board with that idea.  He tells Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link) that playing for the Dodgers is a "dream job."
  • Hernandez also tweets that Dodgers assistant GM De Jon Watson will interview for the vacant Arizona general manager's job tomorrow, while Logan White interviewed for the job today.
  • Jim Peltz of the L.A. Times has the story of the Dodgers' John Lindsey, who is finally a major leaguer after spending 16 years in the minors.
  • As we wait to find out if Joe Torre will leave the Dodgers after this season, the L.A. Times' Steve Dilbeck simply asks, "why would Joe Torre stay?"

Torre Would Support Padilla’s Return

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While Joe Torre's future with the Dodgers is still uncertain, he told the press that he would recommend bringing starter Vicente Padilla back next season, according to Richard Dean in a piece for MLB.com. 

"When we got him about a year ago, there were so many stories that followed him," said the 70-year-old skipper. "But he's been a good teammate.  I don't think there's anybody who doesn't like what he does. It's tough to find stuff like he has. When he gets out there he can still do it. He knows what he's doing. He has not been a [negative] issue baseball-wise. I like him."

Padilla hooked on with the Dodgers with two months remaining in 2009 and re-upped with the club over the winter, signing a one-year, $5.025MM deal.  The soon-to-be 33-year-old was released by Texas who reportedly considered him to be a bad teammate.  Torre's backing suggests that there has been no such issue in Los Angeles.

The righthander missed a great deal of time in 2010, turning in just 16 starts.  In 95 innings of work, he registered a 4.07 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, numbers that are a step above his career averages.  Padilla was scheduled to return to action yesterday, giving him a chance to audition himself, but will instead be shut down for the year due to a neck injury.  He will be joined in free agency by fellow Dodgers starters Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly.

Odds & Ends: Dodgers, Dunn, Duke, Pujols

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Ten years ago today, the Giants signed Francisco Liriano as an amateur free agent. In 2003, the Giants famously (and regrettably) traded Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Liriano to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski. Now 27, Liriano is in the midst of a fine season atop the Twins' rotation. Here are today's links…

  • Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has interest in buying the Dodgers, according to Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse. However, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel hears that Attanasio does not have interest in the Dodgers (Twitter link).
  • Krasovic also reports that the Padres have talked to former D’Backs manager A.J. Hinch about hiring him as their director of pro scouting.
  • Adam Dunn is not likely to re-sign with the Nationals if you ask Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post. Boswell suggests the Nationals should sign Dunn, since power like his is hard to find.
  • Zach Duke was a non-tender candidate before his start yesterday and, as Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette explains, the lefty didn't do himself any favors by pitching just one-plus inning and allowing four runs. Kovacevic says "indications are powerful" that management will not tender Duke a contract offer through arbitration (though that wouldn't necessarily prevent a return to Pittsburgh).
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan argues that Cardinals fans are more concerned about Albert Pujols than either Colby Rasmus or Tony La Russa.
  • D'Backs Interim manager Kirk Gibson has not had any discussions with ownership about managing after this year, but would like to return, according to Jim Gintonio of the Arizona Republic.

Jeff Weaver Wants To Pitch At Least One More Season

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Jeff Weaver told Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times that he wants to pitch at least one more season, and would prefer to do so with the Dodgers (Twitter link). The 34-year-old has spent the last two seasons with the team, his second stint in Chavez Ravine. 

Working exclusively in relief, Weaver's posted unimpressive totals of 5.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 to go along with his 4.99 ERA in 39.2 innings this year. He was much more effective in 2008, when he compiled a 3.65 ERA on the strength of 7.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 79 innings as a swingman. It's worth noting that his fastball velocity has dipped quite a bit over the last few seasons.

Weaver has had to settle for minor league contracts in each of the last three offseasons, and there's no reason to expect that to change next year. He will earn $800K total in 2010, though his career earnings top $40MM.

Odds & Ends: Kuroda, Dunn, Wang, Sabathia, Choo

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Links for Tuesday, exactly one year after the Rockies released Russ Ortiz. It was the third time a major league organization released Ortiz in 2009 and a preview of April 2010 when the Dodgers released him. Here are today's links…

  • Hiroki Kuroda denied to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he intends to play in Japan next season. "I really haven't decided anything," the right-hander said (Twitter links)
  • MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that there has been no progress on a contract extension for Adam Dunn. The first baseman told reporters recently that he "assumes" he will finish the year without a deal in place.
  • Within the same piece, Ladson mentions that Chien-Ming Wang will not pitch this year because of shoulder weakness. The Nationals signed Wang to a one year deal worth $2MM last winter and control him as an arbitration eligible player next year.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Jack Curry of the YES Network that C.C. Sabathia has done "exactly what they hoped for" when they signed him last offseason, and that includes his presence in the clubhouse (Twitter links).
  • Shin-Soo Choo will likely be able to avoid military service in South Korea if he helps his country win a gold medal in baseball at the Asian Games this November, as MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince explains.
  • Agent Scott Boras told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer that Choo may sign an extension with the Indians this offseason. "Things have a way of working out with the good players," Boras said.
  • Baseball America named Jeremy Hellickson its 2010 minor league player of the year.
  • It's looking like the Marlins will sign Ricky Nolasco to a one year deal through arbitration, instead of negotiating a long-term deal, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
  • Arizona president Derrick Hall likes former Padres GM Kevin Towers and interim D'Backs manager Kirk Gibson, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. The D'Backs haven't had a permanent GM or manager since firing Josh Byrnes and A.J. Hinch earlier in the summer.

Dodgers Designate Ronnie Belliard For Assignment

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The Dodgers have designated infielder Ronnie Belliard for assignment according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick (via Twitter). The move frees up a 40-man roster spot for outfielder Trent Oeltjen.

Belliard, 35, hit just .216/.295/.327 with two homers in 185 plate appearances this season. He signed a one year contract worth $825K this winter. Oeltjen, 27, hit .347/.416/.563 in 226 plate appearances with Los Angeles' Triple-A affiliate this year. 

Poll: Manny Ramirez’s Next Contract

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Last week, ESPN's Buster Olney opined that a team interested in Manny Ramirez this offseason should present him with an incentive-laden contract to ensure that he will maintain his focus.  Olney suggests a base salary of $800K to $1MM with incentives based on plate appearances.

While major league GMs likely wouldn't object to such a deal, one has to imagine that Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras, would.  As Tim Dierkes pointed out, last winter Boras was able to land $3.3MM and $2MM guarantees for Xavier Nady and Alex Cora, respectively.  After coming off of a two-year, $45MM deal, it's probable that Ramirez can fetch a higher guaranteed salary on the open market.

However, Ramirez has now left two baseball towns on a sour note twice in recent years.  Ramirez's struggles in the outfield and advanced age also mean that he's likely to remain in the American League as a designated hitter.  Ramirez, who has a career UZR/150 of -20.0 in the outfield, told Dodgers skipper Joe Torre that he feels that he belongs in the AL before his departure to Chicago.  In essence, this probably cuts the slugger's list of prospective suitors in half; minus one if you want to nix Boston from the group.  

While Olney's idea was a suggestion and not necessarily a prediction, it does raise the question of whether Ramirez might be forced to take on that type of deal.  Rather than $1MM, we'll set the over/under a little bit higher.

Will Ramirez end up taking a one-year deal with a base of less than $3MM?

Click here to take the poll, and here to view the results.

Odds & Ends: Nady, Orioles, Darvish, Zambrano

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Links for Sunday, as the White Sox complete a weekend sweep in Boston….

Cafardo On Jeter, Ortiz, Pavano, Kemp

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Barring an incredible comeback or collapse, perennial playoff contenders like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Cardinals won't be playing meaningful October baseball this year. In his weekly Sunday column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe examines why these clubs have fallen short in 2010. He also shares a few hot stove notes….

  • One American League executive calls Derek Jeter a "two-year, $8MM-a-year player on the open market," though the exec acknowledges that the Yankees will pay more than that to keep their long-time shortstop around.
  • While David Ortiz believes that he could play first base for a National League team next season, he tells Cafardo that he'd rather stay in Boston and DH.
  • Carl Pavano's ideal offseason would see him signing a multi-year deal with the Twins. His agent, Tom O'Connell, says Pavano would "love for something to work out" with Minnesota. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at Pavano's impending free agency earlier this week, he concluded that the right-hander might have trouble landing more than a one-year deal.
  • Cafardo spoke to Dodgers officials who said they'd be very surprised if the club moved Matt Kemp this winter. One team official told Cafardo, "You never know in trades, but I’d guess we’d have to be pretty overwhelmed to give up on him."
  • Fredi Gonzalez is widely considered the favorite to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta, but the former Marlins skipper should be a candidate for the Cubs and Mariners as well. Jim Hendry and Jack Zduriencik both like Gonzalez's managerial style.
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