Olney On The Free Agent Market
ESPN’s Buster Olney has a great blog post up today with his musings about this winter’s free agent market. Let’s take a look.
- Industry people believe the current state of the economy might temper offseason spending. We’ve already heard the rumblings that typically high-spending teams like the Angels, Tigers and Mariners backing off or holding the line on payroll.
- Olney feels C.C. Sabathia could draw a $140MM offer from the Yankees, but something more in the $90-100MM range from the Angels or Dodgers. So he may have to decide whether playing close to home is worth $30-50MM.
- Olney extols the virtues of Derek Lowe, who could get a deal comparable to Jason Schmidt‘s three years/$47MM. That was two years, ago though…I think Scott Boras gets Lowe $18MM a year.
- Olney considers this a strong market for starting pitching. Maybe so, but we might see a lot of multiyear deals for injury-risk hurlers after Sabathia and Lowe sign.
- Olney likes the match between the Cardinals and Brian Fuentes. Other teams that could consider Fuentes: the Rays, Indians, and Brewers.
- Olney is convinced the Yankees will offer Bobby Abreu arbitration but nothing more. Abreu is comfortably set to earn Type A status. If the Yanks offer arbitration, they’ll either get Abreu for one year and $16MM or so or they’ll get two draft picks. In contrast, Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman have said they expect the Yankees to let Abreu leave.
- Olney guesses the Red Sox will offer Jason Varitek two guaranteed years with a vesting option for 2011. The Boston Globe’s Amalie Benjamin wrote in August that she expects Varitek to re-sign.
Odds and Ends: Patterson, Lowry, Alvarez
Today’s linkage…
- Brewers fans, act quickly to snag free tickets to tonight’s game courtesy of Eric Gagne. Nice gesture.
- Of course Ned Colletti wants to re-sign Manny Ramirez. It’s just a question of dollars and years. Does Manny get the rumored 4/100 he might desire?
- The Jays locked manager Cito Gaston up through 2010.
- Richard Griffin says the Blue Jays will be better for it if they lose A.J. Burnett. Meanwhile, River Ave. Blues is open to the idea of the Yankees signing him.
- No, Corey Patterson is not dating Dusty Baker’s daughter. And Baker says he wasn’t behind the signing, either.
- The Reds might not be in the market for a catcher this winter, if they go with Ryan Hanigan as the starter in ’09.
- The Mariners officially founded the 100/100 club.
- Peter Abraham sees the Yankees going with Brett Gardner as the center fielder in 2009. Peter Gammons is "convinced he is going to be an everyday center fielder."
- Sam Mellinger discusses a way to drastically shake up the Royals: trade both Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria for loads of young, cheap players. As he notes, the strategy could work out but might cause a fan revolt.
- Andrew Baggarly wonders if Noah Lowry‘s injury problems could prevent a Matt Cain trade. Also, Baggarly sees a non-tender in Kevin Correia‘s future.
- Frank Coonelly suggested Pedro Alvarez‘s new deal is comparable in value to the original. Scott Boras then jumped on the conference call to say it was a favorable change, and much different from the original. Additionally, Coonelly contacted Baseball America’s Jim Callis to dispute the idea of a premeditated plan to negotiate with Alvarez after the deadline.
- The Marlins will focus on improving their defense this winter.
Odds and Ends: Santos, Blalock, Lo Duca
Let’s dig through today’s rumor bin…
- The Jays claimed southpaw Reid Santos off waivers from the Indians. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince says the Indians are clearing room on their 40-man roster in preparation for the winter.
- Dejan Kovacevic has yet to observe why new Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche is so highly regarded.
- Jamey Newberg feels Hank Blalock‘s $6.2MM option for ’09 is an easy call to exercise.
- J.C. Bradbury sees a rift within the Braves organization.
- Craig Calcaterra dismisses the silly idea of Frank McCourt suing Andruw Jones.
- Paul Lo Duca would prefer a non-guaranteed deal next year if he gets a chance to compete for a starting job.
- Ian O’Connor doesn’t see Alex Rodriguez finishing his contract as a Yankee.
- C.C. Sabathia just wants to be happy in his next destination.
- Will the Braves re-sign Mike Hampton this winter? Is it possible both he and Carl Pavano are useful pitchers in 2009?
Heyman’s Latest: Sabathia, Roberts, Cain
Here’s a look at the latest column from SI.com’s Jon Heyman.
- One "Yankees person" believes it will take "crazy money" to convince C.C. Sabathia to pitch in New York and in the American League.
- The following three names are being bandied about in the Yankees’ clubhouse for center field next year: Nate McLouth, David DeJesus, and Matt Kemp. DeJesus seems the most reasonable target, though Robinson Cano could be part of a package for Kemp. DeJesus, it should be noted, played a poor center field this year according to the plus/minus system.
- Heyman doesn’t see the Yankees re-signing Jason Giambi or Bobby Abreu due to defensive concerns.
- Heyman says the Brewers’ efforts to acquire Brian Roberts were more under the radar than the Cubs’. GM Doug Melvin admitted Roberts’ name came up last spring, as the Orioles "were wanting to get [the Brewers] involved."
- Heyman speculation…could the Giants send Matt Cain and another player to Milwaukee for Prince Fielder, and then sign Sabathia? Or could the Rockies jump into the bidding for C.C.?
Odds and Ends: Cashman, Roberts, Lowe
Rounding up links for Thursday…
- Ken Davidoff of Newsday notes which player moves were entirely Brian Cashman’s, and which came from above.
- Buster Olney wonders if Doug Melvin could replace Cashman as the Yankees’ GM. Olney stresses that it’s pure speculation on his part.
- Viva El Birdos asks what it would take for the Cardinals to acquire Brian Roberts.
- John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press says the Tigers should sign Derek Lowe this winter. Will Lowe get a four year deal?
- Bud Selig tells Ken Rosenthal the Manny Ramirez trade was completed before the deadline. Jerry Crasnick says the Dodgers have not talked to Ramirez about an extension.
- Rays Index explains why the team should not trade Scott Kazmir.
Heyman’s Latest: Epstein, Cano, Hudson
Highlights from Jon Heyman’s latest column at SI.com:
- Brewers owner Mark Attanasio reportedly made the decision to fire Ned Yost, but GM Doug Melvin’s power is not diminished.
- Theo Epstein’s new agreement is for three years.
- Heyman notes "talk lately that the Yankees might consider trading Robinson Cano." Apparently Cano still has good trade value and the Yankees could fill multiple needs in a deal. Heyman says the Dodgers are interested. Cano was subject of an odd Dodgers rumor back in July. The Yanks would be interested in Orlando Hudson if they were to trade Cano.
- Alex Rodriguez patched things up with Scott Boras, who he considers "a good guy."
Blake Leads Third Base Market
Here’s a look at the free agent market for third basemen:
Rich Aurilia (37)
Casey Blake (35)
Hank Blalock (28) – $6.2MM club option for ’09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Willie Bloomquist (31)
Aaron Boone (36)
Russell Branyan (33)
Craig Counsell (38)
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Wes Helms (33) – $3.75MM club option for ’09
Chipper Jones (37) – $8-11MM vesting option for ’09
Mark Loretta (37)
Fernando Tatis (34)
Ramon Vazquez (32)
Jones won’t hit the market. Blalock and Crede have health issues, while the others would be stretched as starters. Except for Casey Blake. He’s the best free agent option at third base.
Blake, 35, is hitting .282/.351/.480 in 560 plate appearances this year. He’s not much defensively, making eight fewer plays than the average third baseman this year. He’s about average at fielding bunts.
Blake is earning $6.1MM this year. Perhaps he will receive a two-year deal in the $15MM range. The Indians told Blake to keep them in mind, but he hasn’t made any decisions yet. He should have plenty of suitors, possibly including the Twins, A’s, Brewers, Dodgers, and Giants. Blake can also play first base and right field, expanding his options.
Tazawa Ignites Controversy
Japanese amateur pitcher Junichi Tazawa is shaking things up – last week he asked the 12 Nippon Professional Baseball teams not to draft him. He wants to join an MLB team instead. His decision, coupled with interest from multiple MLB teams, is putting a major strain on MLB-NPB relations.
Peter Abraham of The Journal News had an informative article on the Tazawa situation yesterday. He says Tazawa’s decision is testing an informal agreement that MLB will not sign Japanese prospects. Abraham says the Red Sox, Mets, Braves, and Dodgers have scouted Tazawa. The Tigers, Pirates, Cubs, and Mariners may also be in the mix. The Red Sox are said to be in the lead. There’s no posting free for an unsigned player, though Tazawa may want a big league deal.
The Yankees will pass – GM Brian Cashman told Abraham he will honor the gentleman’s agreement between the two leagues. When the Yanks sent Gene Michael to Japan last week, it was apparently to scout Yu Darvish. Darvish’s availability this winter will hinge on the whims of the Nippon Ham Fighters. No one knows whether the Fighters will cash the 22 year-old in now for a possible $60-80MM posting fee.
NPB directors convened to discuss the Tazawa situation last week, and they’re sending a delegation to the U.S. to meet with MLB. Abraham suggests NPB could strike back if Bud Selig doesn’t step in to stop the pursuit of Japanese players before they are drafted. Abraham speculates Japan could pull out of the World Baseball Classic or even sign an American amateur player as retaliation. Or, as Patrick Newman suggested to me recently, a team like Softbank could jump in and sign Pedro Alvarez or Aaron Crow.
Would Dodgers Trade For Beltre?
If Casey Blake returns to Cleveland, would the Dodgers be interested in Adrian Beltre? Bill Shaikin of the LA Times points out Beltre still calls Pasadena home.
The 29 year old third basemen is in the midst of this third consecutive 25 homerun season despite a torn ligament in his left thumb. Writes Shaikin:
"Beltre wouldn’t mind staying in Seattle, but the Mariners need to hire a general manager and get on with rebuilding. Assuming they do, Beltre would love to come back to the Dodgers. ‘If I’m available, I’d be happy to,’ he said. ‘I don’t know what is going to happen. I’d be more than happy to come back to L.A. It’s not under my control.’"
Still, the Mariners don’t have many trade pieces, need to rebuild, and third base will be in high demand this offseason so Beltre won’t come cheap. The Dodgers have given up a lot recently to acquire Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux and may rather work hard to sign Casey Blake before other teams have a chance. Other options for the Dodgers might be to move Blake Dewitt to third, or pursuing Joe Crede or other less desirable free agents this offseason.
Odds and Ends: Sabathia, Pavano, Penny, Burnett
Random links to start the morning…
- Ben Shpigel says Billy Wagner‘s $10.5MM for ’09 is not covered by insurance, making the Mets unlikely suitors for K-Rod (hat tip to MetsBlog).
- The Padres claimed knuckleballer Charlie Haeger. You have to like the move; he’s only 24.
- Ken Davidoff writes about Nationals pitcher Tim Redding, who dreams about returning to the Yankees one day.
- Davidoff also says that contrary to popular belief, C.C. Sabathia did not buy a home in Southern California.
- In another post, Davidoff lists the worst trades of ’08.
- Nats GM Jim Bowden will probably bring in a veteran first baseman next year due to health concerns with Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young.
- Not much cooking on the Pedro Alvarez front…Bud Selig testified yesterday, and the next part of the hearing isn’t until September 23rd.
- Andrew Baggarly explains Bengie Molina‘s contentious relationship with the Giants.
- From Saturday: Carl Pavano‘s side of the story. Can Pavano be a useful pitcher next year?
- Larry Borowsky would like to see the Cardinals enterain an extension for Todd Wellemeyer. He’s eligible for free agency after the ’09 season.
- Joel Sherman isn’t sure the Yankees will invite Andy Pettitte back next year.
- Brad Penny says he pitched through a shoulder injury because of uncertainty around his ’09 option.
- Interesting fact…A.J. Burnett is second in MLB with 3286 pitches thrown (Sabathia jumped into the lead last night). Many of the ’07 leaders in pitches thrown came down with injuries this year.
- Michael O’Keefe sits down with agent Scott Boras.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney notes that the Blue Jays will pursue a shortstop this winter.
- All you ever wanted to know about Dr. James Andrews.
- Jed Hoyer explains where Curt Schilling learned his negotiating tactics.