Marlins Rumors

Questions Remaining

Adding Chen certainly stabilizes things in the starting staff, but beyond his own questions, it’s far from clear what the Fish will get from their other rotation members. Fernandez is one of the game’s most dynamic pitchers, but he’s entering his first full season after Tommy John surgery and his workload will be watched closely. The club didn’t get what it hoped for from Jarred Cosart last year, as he dealt with the effects of vertigo — with his results and peripherals all suffering. Adam Conley, a 25-year-old southpaw, had a promising debut last year and also generated good results at Triple-A. But it’s unclear what kind of ceiling he has, and the same holds of the steady but unspectacular Tom Koehler. There is some depth behind this group, including the names mentioned above, but there isn’t exactly an abundance of talent close at hand. Southpaw Justin Nicolino has already been sent down, but could be the first man up if a need arises. Other options include Jose Urena and Kendry Flores.

The pen has its share of concerns as well, especially with the tough news that Carter Capps has been lost to a TJ procedure. He was nothing short of outstanding last year, and there’s really no way to replace him at this stage. Miami also had to option the surprising Kyle Barraclough after his control issues re-emerged this spring, taking a possible power arm out of the equation early on. Closer A.J. Ramos had a strong overall campaign in 2015, but will be looking to increase his consistency after wrapping lights-out starts and finishes to the season around a rough stretch in the middle of the year. Southpaw stalwart Mike Dunn also has a lot to prove entering his walk year following a sub-par campaign, while Bryan Morris will look to show that he can maintain his solid earned-run levels despite the lack of strikeouts. And there’s a reason the names discussed previously were available at such a low cost.

All said, Miami will need several arms to play up to and above expectations to keep pace with the best staffs in the NL East. But there to help coax results and develop the next wave of pitching talent will be Jim Benedict, the noted pitching guru who came over from the Pirates (thus necessitating the sacrifice of a fairly promising prospect in righty Trevor Williams).

The outfield is set, and loaded with talent, but it’s still an open question whether Miami will receive full and fully productive campaigns. That’s most apparent with superstar Giancarlo Stanton, who is one of the game’s best sluggers but who’s had his share of nicks and bruises — including a terrifying broken jaw last year on a hit-by-pitch. Christian Yelich also missed time in 2015, but put up good overall numbers and finished strong. Speaking of nice late-year runs, the aforementioned Ozuna showed his abilities later in the year after a sluggish start led to a surprising demotion.

It’s a bit unclear, too, what the Marlins can expect out of their bench. Derek Dietrich has shown flashes and could be an interesting utility piece coming off of a promising season. But Mathis remains a glove-only catcher, while Ichiro is at the tail end of his remarkable career. And the rest of the possibilities — including players such as Cole Gillespie, Robert Andino, and Xavier Scruggs — haven’t managed to maintain productivity at the major league level.

Deal of Note

Dee Gordon broke out in 2014 with the Dodgers, but the club wasn’t convinced he’d sustain it. Miami gave up top prospect Andrew Heaney (among other pieces) to take the other side of the bet. While it’d sure be nice to plug that lefty into the rotation now, the swap has turned out as hoped for the Fish.

The fleet-footed Gordon needs to hit a lot since he doesn’t walk much and lacks power, but he did plenty of that in 2015 — leading the National League with a .333 batting average. He also paced the N.L. again with 58 stolen bases (though he was caught 20 times as well) and made great strides with his glove.

That overall output made Gordon one of the game’s most productive overall second baggers. Now, he’ll be paid accordingly. Miami doubled down on its investment with a $50MM extension, plugging Gordon in alongside Stanton, Fernandez, and Yelich as core pieces with lengthy control rights. Gordon is under contract through his age-31 season, with another available via option.

It looks like a solid price for both sides, all things considered. Gordon was projected to earn $5.9MM in his second of four arb-eligible campaigns, so he had some big paydays coming even though his skills don’t pay particularly highly through that process. His top-level baserunning and newfound leatherwork give him a reasonable floor, if he can maintain those levels, though he’ll have to keep making good contact to remain an above-average regular. Still, Gordon doesn’t need to be a star for the contract to make financial sense, and he’s yet to turn 28.

Overview

All in all, this offseason represented another bet on the organization’s talented core, rather than an attempted leap forward via external acquisitions. But unlike last year, when the Marlins made an unsuccessful bid to surround that group with some veterans, improvement will need to come largely from within.

What’s unclear is whether there’s enough talent on hand to compete with the Nationals and Mets — both now and for the next several seasons to come. There aren’t many teams that can match the Marlins at the top of the roster, but they may need continued strides from Hechavarria, one or more breakouts in the rotation (Cosart being a key name), and big output from role players such as Prado, Dietrich, and Bour to make a real run at the postseason. The loss of Capps represents a big hit not only for the current season, but potentially beyond (if he lands on the lengthier side of typical TJ recovery or struggles to get back).

If Miami isn’t in contention at the All-Star break, the questions on Fernandez’s long-term status will grow louder. The Scott Boras client looks like a difficult player to extend, given his age and upside, and other organizations will surely dangle plenty of interesting trade bait. With a lightly-regarded farm that doesn’t seem primed to graduate any impact talent in the near-term — see here and here, and that’s before the worrying news on Tyler Kolek — it’ll be hard to forgo a chance at adding a volume of quality assets at some point.

What’s your take on the Marlins’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.