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MLBTR Podcast Mailbag: Cardinals’ Troubles, Jazz Chisholm, Bad Umpiring And More

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…

  • Which of the division leaders have the most or least staying power? (3:10)
  • What does it look like if the Cardinals are selling at the deadline? (11:20)
  • Do the Cardinals have a problem with coaching or player development? (18:50)
  • When the Braves traded Marco Gonzales and Max Stassi, why did they trade for a player to be named later or cash when they were paying most of the salaries for both players? (22:35)
  • Will the Marlins trade Jazz Chisholm Jr. if they are out of contention in July? (24:45)
  • You’re designing a pitcher in a lab to succeed in today’s game and mitigate the likelihood of an injury. What is their profile and what pitches do they throw? (28:35)
  • Why isn’t there more umpire accountability? (33:30)
  • Why are the Pirates committed to hitting coach Andy Haines? (35:45)
  • Compare the cost of a Falcon 9 launch to the Javier Báez contract. How much could the Tigers save? (38:55)
  • Should the Tigers send Parker Meadows down and should the Giants release Mike Yastrzemski? (40:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Marlins To Move A.J. Puk Back To Bullpen

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Marlins left-hander A.J. Puk was in the Marlins’ rotation to start this year before landing on the injured list but he will be moved back to the bullpen when he’s healthy. Manager Skip Schumaker passed the news along to Christina De Nicola of MLB.com today.

It’s not necessarily a shock that the Marlins are making this decision since the plan to move Puk to the rotation got off to a horrible start. His first four outings resulted in 14 earned runs allowed over 13 2/3 innings. He struck out 12 opponents but gave out walks to 17 of them before landing on the IL over the weekend due to fatigue in his throwing shoulder.

There was some logic to the plan, as Puk was once a highly-touted prospect in the Athletics’ system who was seen as a future major league starter. However, he required shoulder surgery in 2020 and then also had some other health issues, including a strained left biceps and nerve irritation in his left elbow.

The A’s decided to move Puk to a relief role after those injuries and the initial results were good. In 2022, Puk tossed 66 1/3 innings out of their bullpen with a 3.12 earned run average, striking out 27% of batters faced. They flipped him to the Marlins for JJ Bleday prior to 2023, and Puk continued to have success as a reliever in Miami. His ERA ticked up slightly to 3.97 but his strikeout rate also jumped to 32.2%.

After two years of success as a reliever, it’s understandable why the Marlins thought the time was right for him to see if he could move back to the rotation. From a team standpoint, they had seen their rotation depth thinned out by the trades of Pablo López and Jake Eder, as well as the Tommy John surgery of Sandy Alcántara. Since moving Puk to the rotation, that depth was further thinned by Eury Pérez also requiring Tommy John, while Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett battled less-significant injuries.

But the poor results and Puk’s shoulder injury seem to have convinced the Marlins to give up on the experiment, at least for now. He’ll move back to the bullpen when he returns from the IL and will hopefully re-establish himself in that role.

The Marlins can control Puk for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Given their poor start this season, they are trending towards being sellers at the deadline this summer. Puk could perhaps be made available but the extra years of control also mean that they could decide to hang onto him.

The Miami rotation currently consists of Cabrera, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers. Tonight’s starter is Sixto Sánchez but he’s unlikely to give the club much length since he’s mostly been pitching single-inning appearances this year and hardly pitched at all in the three previous years due to ongoing shoulder problems.

Schumaker seems open-minded about Sánchez taking the ball again, telling De Nicola it depends on how things go tonight, but Garrett is also nearing a return. Per De Nicola, the lefty is planned for four innings and/or 60 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start on Friday.

The Marlins’ Historically Feeble Catching Corps

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The Marlins have been searching for a long-term answer at catcher since trading J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies back in February of 2019. The organizational hope at the time was that Jorge Alfaro, acquired alongside righty Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart in that very trade, could step up and fill the role. That never really came to fruition, and the Fish have cycled through him, Jacob Stallings and a long list of veteran role players in an effort to hold things over at the position.

It’s never gone particularly well, but it’s also never been as bad as it is right now. The Marlins opened the season with glove-first Nick Fortes and trade acquisition Christian Bethancourt lined up to shoulder the workload behind the plate. The results are quite literally some of the worst in history. Through the Marlins’ first 25 games — more than 15% of their season — they’ve gotten exactly five hits from their catchers. All have come from Fortes, who has three singles and a pair of doubles on the year. He’s 5-for-46 at the plate. Bethancourt is hitless in 23 plate appearances. Jhonny Pereda, recently selected from Triple-A Jacksonville to replace Bethancourt when he  hit the IL due to a viral illness, is 0-for-5 to begin his big league career. (Miami reinstated Bethancourt from the injured list today and optioned Pereda back to Jacksonville.)

Overall, Marlins catchers own a staggering .068/.117/.096 slash line on the season. That obviously places them at the bottom of the league; by measure of wRC+, Miami catchers have been 138% worse than league-average (-38). Since Realmuto left the Marlins, their catchers have combined for a .223/.285/.345 batting line in 2734 plate appearances.

The Fish likely knew the catcher’s spot would be a weak point in the lineup. Fortes hit just .204/.263/.299 in 323 plate appearances last season but is a plus defender behind the dish who was credited as being five runs better than average by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast in just 774 innings in 2023.

Bethancourt has more power (11 homers, .156 ISO last season) but hit just .225/.254/.381 thanks to a lofty 27.4% strikeout rate and paltry 3.9% walk rate. He’s a rocket-armed defender who’s thrown out one-third of attempted base thieves in his career and ranked in the 95th percentile of MLB catchers for his pop time behind the plate last season, however. True to form, he’s thrown out two of the three runners who’ve run against him this season.

Bethancourt is also likely a favorite of Miami president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, who was the Rays’ GM when Tampa Bay acquired Bethancourt from the A’s last year and who quickly acquired Bethancourt in a trade after the Guardians claimed him off waivers from the Rays.

At the time of that trade, it appeared likely to be one of multiple additions for the Fish. Bendix said shortly after being hired that it’d be “ideal” to acquire multiple catchers over the course of the offseason, recognizing that it was an area of organizational weakness. In the most literal sense possible, the Marlins accomplished that goal; Bethancourt was acquired via trade, and the aforementioned Pereda was signed as a minor league free agent. It’s hard to imagine that a cash swap and a minor league signing were the goal at the time of those comments from Bendix, however.

Marlins ownership clearly didn’t give the front office much to work with in terms of financial firepower this offseason. The team’s only major league free agent signing was a one-year, $5MM deal for Tim Anderson. The Fish made little to no effort to re-sign Jorge Soler after he opted out of the final year of his contract — and that’s according to Soler himself. Even on the eve of Opening Day, the Marlins were still trimming payroll, shipping utilityman Jon Berti to the Yankees in exchange for a pair of minor league outfielders.

The Marlins clearly believe they’ll get more offense out of Fortes and Bethancourt — a low bar to clear thus far in the season — as they’ve made no effort to augment the position thus far. Veteran Eric Haase and his modest $1MM salary passed through waivers unclaimed in late March. When the Giants designated Joey Bart for assignment, the Pirates acquired him in exchange for a relief prospect they drafted in the eighth round last year. Veterans Francisco Mejia (Brewers) and Curt Casali (Cubs) both signed minor league deals with other clubs after the season began.

Outside of Bart (a long shot), none of those names was likely to emerge as a long-term option. They’re generally short-term stopgaps at best and future DFA candidates themselves at worst. But given the total dearth of production the Marlins have received from the catching position this year, even a short-term stopgap seems like a wise target — particularly since the farm isn’t likely to produce any immediate help.

None of Miami’s top-tier prospects are catchers. Will Banfield is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking 16th in their system at Baseball America and 23rd at MLB.com. Banfield, however, carries a similar profile to that of Fortes — a plus defender with questionable offensive skills. He’s off to a woeful .161/.203/.304 start in Triple-A and has struck out in an eye-popping 49.2% of his 59 plate appearances. Joe Mack, whom the Marlins selected 31st overall in 2021, is another glove-first option who’s further down the ladder. He hit just .218/.295/.287 in High-A last year, though he did rip through pitching at that same level this year (.347/.467/.561) and earn a promotion to Double-A in the process.

Fortes, Bethancourt and Pereda won’t keep floundering at this severe a level, but none of that trio is likely to emerge as a solid offensive contributor either. There was inherent risk in entering the season with a pair of backstops who sport career wRC+ marks of 69 (Bethancourt) and 70 (Fortes). Things have gone worse than anyone could’ve reasonably expected, but it was always a possibility that the Fish would be rostering one of the least-productive catching tandems in the sport — if not the worst. The lack of any meaningful effort to address the deficiency is perplexing but feels like something that can and will be addressed via the trade market — whether at this year’s deadline or in the offseason.

Miami isn’t going to go out and trade prospects for an established veteran — not when their season is all but lost before the end of April — but if and when the Marlins begin selling off veterans of their own, targeting some upper-level catching help wouldn’t be a surprising outcome.

Josh Simpson To Undergo Surgery For Ulnar Nerve Neuritis

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Marlins left-hander Josh Simpson will undergo surgery for ulnar nerve neuritis, per Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. He is expected to miss about three months.

Simpson, 26, began this year on the 15-day injured list with left elbow ulnar neuritis. He was transferred to the 60-day IL this past weekend when the club selected the contract of right-hander Kyle Tyler. That transfer made Simpson ineligible to return from the injured list until late May but he’ll now be out beyond that point anyway, with the news of this surgery.

A 32nd-round pick of the Fish in the 2019 draft, the lefty was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2022 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had just finished a strong season, tossing 68 innings between Double-A and Triple with a 3.97 earned run average. He walked 12.4% of batters faced but also struck out opponents at a hefty 40.7% rate.

Last year, he kept getting the punchies but the control got a bit worse. In 38 2/3 minor league innings, he had a 4.42 ERA, 37.5% strikeout rate and 15.3% walk rate. He was recalled to the big league club a couple of times but was not put into a game and is therefore still looking to make his major league debut.

That debut will have to wait at least a few more months as he rehabs from this surgery. Since he’s on the big league IL, he’ll collect major league pay and service time while he’s working his way back. The Marlins have Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi as the two healthy lefty relievers on their roster. Some have speculated that A.J. Puk could be moved back to the bullpen since his rotation work has not been good so far this year, but he’s on the IL now anyway due to fatigue in his throwing shoulder.

Marlins Place A.J. Puk On 15-Day Injured List

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The Marlins have announced a series of roster moves in advance of today’s double-header with the Cubs, including the news that left-hander A.J. Puk has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to fatigue in his throwing shoulder.  As was reported yesterday, Roddery Munoz was indeed called up from Triple-A, and he’ll officially act as the 27th man for the double-header.  Right-hander Kyle Tyler will also join the active roster after his contract was selected from Triple-A, and the Marlins moved southpaw Josh Simpson to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man roster opening for Tyler.

Puk just pitched yesterday, and was tagged for seven earned runs over three innings of work in an 8-3 Miami loss to Chicago.  It was the roughest yet of four lackluster starts for Puk, who now has a 9.22 ERA over 13 2/3 innings of work, with an alarming 17 walks over that brief amount of time on the mound.  Manager Skip Schumaker told reporters (including Fish On First’s Isaac Azout) yesterday that the club hasn’t yet considered moving Puk back to the bullpen, though today’s injury news could change the equation considerably.

First and foremost, Puk’s lengthy injury history adds an extra layer of concern to any new health issues, even something as relatively minor as shoulder fatigue.  Puk missed all of the 2018 season and a chunk of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and then missed the entire 2020 season due to a lingering shoulder problem that eventually required surgery.  Since it wasn’t clear if Puk’s arm would hold up under a starter’s workload, the Athletics used him as a reliever, and the result was a breakout year in 2022.  Oakland traded Puk to the Marlins in the 2022-23 offseason for JJ Bleday, and Puk continued the success last season with more strong work out of Miami’s relief corps.

With Puk now established as a big leaguer, the Marlins decided to see what he could still offer as a starter, and stretched him out this spring with an eye towards putting him into the rotation.  Clearly the experiment hasn’t worked out to date, and once Puk is back from the IL, he could find himself in the relief corps again if Miami has stabilized the rest of its rotation.  Between Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez undergoing Tommy John surgery and season-opening IL stints for Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, the Fish didn’t really have much choice but to keep rolling Puk out there, though Cabrera has now since returned.

Max Meyer pitched well over three starts but was then optioned to Triple-A despite those strong results, as the Marlins are looking to limit his innings in the wake of a Tommy John surgery.  Munoz is making his MLB debut today with a start against the Cubs, and Puk’s injury could mean that Munoz gets a longer look against big league competition.  Tyler could also technically be a starting candidate, though the Marlins used him as a reliever in both of his Triple-A appearances this season.

Tyler has started 60 of his 108 career games in the minors, including starts in 26 of his 27 appearances with the Mariners’ Double-A affiliate in 2023.  With only a 5.60 ERA to show for those 135 innings, it represented a setback for Tyler, who banked 16 1/3 innings of MLB experience with the Angels and Padres in 2021-22.  He had previously pitched well in Double-A ball before running into problems in Triple-A, with a 5.68 ERA over 44 1/3 frames at the top minor league level.  The Marlins signed Tyler to a minor league deal during the offseason, and he’ll give the team some extra depth in the pen at least through today’s twin bill.

Simpson started the year on the 15-day IL due to elbow ulnar neuritis, and his move to the 60-day IL means that he won’t be an option for the big league roster until late May.  He has banked only one minor league appearance this season back on April 6, and between the lack of subsequent action and now this move to the 60-day IL, it remains to be seen when Simpson might be back in action.  The 26-year-old has yet to make his Major League debut, but has been a member of Miami’s organization since he was drafted in the 32nd round in 2019.

Marlins To Call Up Roddery Muñoz For MLB Debut

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The Marlins are going to bring up right-hander Roddery Muñoz as the 27th man for tomorrow’s double-header, per Isaac Azout of Fish on First. The righty will be making his major league debut, starting one of the two games of the twin bill.

It’s a belated birthday present for Muñoz, who just turned 24 on Sunday. The righty hasn’t been a Marlin for very long, as he actually came up as prospect in Atlanta’s system, but since July of last year, he bounced to the Nationals, Pirates and Marlins via waiver claims or cash deals.

The righty had a bit of a breakout in 2022. He made 19 starts at the High-A level that year, with a 4.03 earned run average in his 89 1/3 innings. He struck out 26.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 9.5% clip and getting grounders on 45.6% of balls in play. He was promoted to Double-A for three starts at the end of the year and allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings, but the peripheral stats were pretty similar to his High-A work.

Going into 2023, Atlanta put him on their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Baseball America also ranked him the #22 prospect in that club’s system. But his results backed up a bit last year, which led to his aforementioned journey around the league’s DFA carousel. He eventually tossed 78 innings at his various stops throughout the year, with a 5.42 ERA in that time. His 23% strikeout rate was solid but his 15.1% walk rate was quite high.

The Marlins nonetheless took a shot on him and have since seen their starting pitching depth get thinned out. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year and was already known to be unavailable in 2024, but Eury Pérez has since followed him down that path. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also started the season on the injured list due to injuries, though Cabrera has now returned.

The rotation currently consists of Cabrera, A.J. Puk, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers, but yesterday’s game was rained out, leading to tomorrow’s doubleheader. Since they need a sixth starter to get through this stretch, with no off-day until Thursday, the circumstances will allow Muñoz to make his debut. He has tossed 10 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level so far this year but has shown significant control problems, issuing 12 walks to just seven strikeouts.

That perhaps suggests this was mostly an emergency decision. The club also has Max Meyer and Darren McCaughan on the 40-man roster, but Meyer was just optioned to monitor his workload after he missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. McCaughan just pitched on Wednesday and would be pitching on short rest if recalled this weekend. Muñoz may be in for just one outing before being optioned back to the minors, but it’s undoubtedly an exciting day for him regardless.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

Braxton Garrett Dealing With "Dead Arm"

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The Marlins have been without left-hander Braxton Garrett all season. A shoulder impingement sent the 26-year-old to the injured list to begin the year. Garrett seemed to be nearing a return to the majors after throwing six innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Jacksonville last week, but he has run into a bit of a setback. Manager Skip Schumaker told reporters that Garrett felt a “dead arm” when throwing a bullpen session today (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com).

Marlins Outright Matt Andriese

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Marlins righty Matt Andriese cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He has the service time to decline the assignment in favor of free agency, although it isn’t clear if he’ll do so.

Andriese could well decide to stick with the organization after signing a minor league deal over the winter. The 34-year-old got back to the majors this spring for the first time since 2021. Miami called upon Andriese for a trio of relief outings, during which he tossed five innings of three-run ball. He fanned eight without issuing a walk but surrendered a pair of home runs. Miami designated him for assignment on Saturday when they recalled Calvin Faucher to get a fresh arm in the bullpen.

Miami called Andriese to the majors before he had a chance to pitch in Triple-A this season. He spent all of last year at the top minor league level, working 93 2/3 frames with the Dodgers’ affiliate. Andriese scuffled to a 6.05 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below the league average, although he showed strong control by walking fewer than 6% of opponents.

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