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Marlins Claim Seth Martinez

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The Marlins have claimed right-hander Seth Martinez off the Seattle waiver wire, as announced by the Mariners.  It wasn’t known that Martinez had been designated for assignment, and Martinez only joined the Mariners on another waiver claim from Miami less than two weeks ago. The Marlins went on to announce that left-hander Andrew Nardi was placed on the 60-day injured list with low back inflammation to make room for Martinez’s return to the 40-man roster.

Martinez, 30, was drafted by the Athletics in the 17th round of the 2016 draft but has spent his entire MLB career in an Astros uniform. The right-hander made his big league debut in 2021 for an ill-fated cup of coffee where he surrendered five runs across three innings of work, but provided solid middle relief work for the Astros since then. Martinez’s 2022 season was particularly impressive, as he dominated to the tune of a 2.09 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of work with a 24.5% strikeout rate against a 9.0% walk rate. That production wasn’t entirely supported by more advanced metrics, but his 3.32 FIP and 3.56 SIERA still suggested even his underlying performance was that of a quality relief arm.

Unfortunately, Martinez has not been able to maintain that level of success in the years since. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign was something of a disaster, as he struggled to a 5.23 ERA with a 4.42 FIP in 43 innings of work. While his ERA was inflated by a below-average strand rate and a more than 100-point jump in BABIP, his walk and home run rates both crept upwards as well to make the struggles more than simple bad luck. While the luck-based factors in Martinez’s 2023 season reversed in 2024, allowing him to post a solid 3.59 ERA in 52 2/3 frames for Houston last year, his skills took a major step backward as his strikeout rate plummeted to just 16.2% while he surrendered the most home runs of his career.

Those struggles led the Astros to designate Martinez for assignment back in November, and he’s been riding the waiver wire ever since. The right-hander was first claimed by the Diamondbacks and spent most of the offseason with Arizona, but was DFA’d once again to make room for veteran hurler Kendall Graveman on the Snakes’ 40-man. He was picked up by Miami shortly thereafter and since then has been shipped to Seattle, and now will land back in Miami as a potential bullpen arm for a Marlins club with plenty of interesting rotation arms but very little certainty in their relief corps.

Things are even more unsettled in the Miami bullpen due to Nardi’s placement on the shelf. The southpaw entered camp behind schedule but the club provided little information about his situation, instead only noting that he had “some stuff flare up in the offseason.” Evidently, Nardi’s back issues are serious enough that the club does not anticipate him being ready to pitch before the end of May, an unfortunate development regarding one of the club’s better relief arms. The lefty posted an ugly 5.07 ERA in 2024, but underlying metrics suggested his performance was much stronger than that. He struck out a whopping 33.3% of opponents faced, walked just 8.6%, and kept hard contact to a minimum en route to a 2.76 xERA, a 2.77 SIERA, and a 3.33 FIP.

All of those figures were much more in line with the production Nardi posted in 2023, when he pitched to a 2.67 ERA in 57 1/3 innings of work. Given his excellent peripherals last year and previous success, Nardi seemed to be a likely candidate for a late-inning role with the Marlins this year. This injury will put that on hold for at least the season’s first couple of months, and perhaps longer depending on Nardi’s timetable for a return to action.

Eury Pérez Targeting Return Around All-Star Break

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Marlins FanFest is taking place this weekend at loanDepot Park, giving members of the media access to players and staff. Right-hander Eury Pérez spoke today, giving an update on his situation, with Christina De Nicola of MLB.com among those to relay the particulars.

The young righty underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. Today, he said he has already thrown seven bullpens and described himself as 75%. As for a timeline, he says he’s targeting a return around the All-Star break in July. That roughly aligns with the normal timeline following such a surgery, as pitchers usually take 14-plus months to come back.

The Marlins don’t seem to have their sights set on competing in 2025. They went 62-100 last year and their offseason has been more focused on subtractions, at least when it comes to the major league roster. Their biggest signing has been adding utility player Eric Wagaman on a split deal. They traded Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies and Jake Burger to the Rangers, getting prospects back in both instances.

As such, Pérez and the club will have no real reason to rush the timeline. He is still quite young, not turning 22 until April, and is under club control through the 2029 season. Going at a measured pace and making sure he’s healthy for the long term is the sensible play. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball prior to his 2023 debut, when he tossed 91 1/3 innings with a 3.15 earned run average, 28.9% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.

As of now, the Marlins project to have a rotation nucleus of Sandy Alcántara, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer. Options for the back end include Valente Bellozo, Xzavion Curry, Adam Mazur and Connor Gillispie. If all goes according to plan, Pérez will jump into that mix in July, just before the trade deadline. If the Marlins are out of contention as expected, then it’s possible that Alcántara, Weathers and Cabrera could be in trade rumors at that time.

Elsewhere on the Miami roster, manager Clayton McCullough provided an update on left-hander Andrew Nardi, per De Nicola and Isaac Azout of Fish on First. Nardi had “some stuff flare up in the offseason” and will be a bit behind schedule in spring training, though the team is still awaiting clarity on the severity of the situation.

It’s unclear exactly what “stuff” was impacted by this flare-up. Nardi was placed on the injured list in August of last year due to a left elbow muscle injury and finished the season there. It’s unclear if his current status is related to that IL stint.

If Nardi is healthy, he would likely be viewed as a trade chip this summer, again assuming the Marlins aren’t in contention. He can be controlled through 2028, but the Fish haven’t been shy about trading controllable players in recent years. That includes the aforementioned Luzardo and Burger, as well as guys like Luis Arráez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Huascar Brazobán, Bryan De La Cruz, Trevor Rogers and Bryan Hoeing last year.

In 2023, Nardi posted a 2.67 ERA across 57 1/3 innings, pairing a 30.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. In 49 2/3 innings in 2024, he actually increased his strikeout rate to 33.3% and lowered his walk rate to 8.6%. His ERA jumped to 5.07, but a lot of that was likely luck. His batting average on balls in play jumped from .288 to .325 from 2023 to 2024, while his strand rate dropped from 86.4% to 63.9%. Though his ERA almost doubled compared to the year prior, his 3.33 FIP last year was actually lower than his 3.60 FIP in 2023. His SIERA also dropped from 3.18 to 2.77.

Putting the last two years together, Nardi threw 107 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and would have three years of club control beyond that.

Marlins Announce 11 Roster Moves

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The Marlins announced a whopping 11 roster moves in advance of today’s game with the Phillies.  Right-handers Max Meyer and Calvin Faucher were each placed on the 15-day injured list, with Meyer’s placement due to right shoulder bursitis retroactive to September 4, and Faucher’s placement due to right shoulder impingement syndrome retroactive to September 5.  Derek Hill was also placed on the 10-day IL with a retroactive September 5 date, as the outfielder is dealing with a left shoulder impingement.  Left-hander Andrew Nardi’s season is officially over after a move to the 60-day injured list, while left-hander Austin Kitchen was designed for assignment and right-hander Anthony Maldonado was optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville.

With the departures completed, here is the list of players joining Miami’s active roster.  Righty Anthony Bender was reinstated from the 15-day IL, and right-handers George Soriano and Lake Bachar were called up from Triple-A.  Also up from Jacksonville are left-hander Jonathan Bermudez and utilityman Javier Sanoja, whose contracts selected to the big league roster.  Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base reported (via X) earlier today that Sanoja was being promoted for his Major League debut, while Isaac Azout of Fish On First initially reported (links to X) that Meyer was headed to the IL and that Bermudez and Bachar were being promoted.

Meyer had been scheduled to start Sunday, but he’ll now hit the IL in the latest of a seemingly unending parade of injuries to Miami starters.  While more will be known about Meyer’s situation later today, it stands to reason that the Marlins could shut down the 25-year-old both due to this injury concern, and the club’s overall plan to limit Meyer’s workload this season.  Between 57 innings in the majors and 58 innings in the minors, Meyer had done a pretty good job of rebuilding his arm strength after missing all of 2023 due to a Tommy John surgery.

In terms of on-field results, Meyer has a 5.68 ERA over his 57 frames in the Show.  His 50% grounder rate is very strong and his 7.7% walk rate is around league average, but has allowed a ton of hard contact and struck out only 18.5% of opposing batters.  Such struggles aren’t unexpected for a player in his first extended taste of MLB action, as Meyer’s only big league experience prior this season was a two-game cup of coffee in 2022 prior to his TJ procedure.

In addition to Meyer, it is worth speculating if Faucher or Hill might also be shut down for the remainder of 2024, given the late date on the calendar.  The Marlins turned in this direction with Nardi, who only went to the 15-day IL a couple of weeks ago, and manager Skip Schumaker seemed optimistic at the time of the 15-day placement about the chances of Nardi returning before the end of September.  Instead, Nardi’s season is done after posting a 5.07 ERA over 49 2/3 innings, though a set of impressive Statcast metrics and a 2.79 SIERA indicates that Nardi was among the more unlucky pitchers in the league.

Faucher has been one of the few bright spots for Miami this season, as the righty has overcome a .345 BABIP and a lot of walks to post a 3.19 ERA and 26.8% strikeout rate in 53 2/3 relief innings.  The Marlins opted against trading Faucher amidst their many moves at the trade deadline, and instead installed him at closer after Tanner Scott was dealt to the Padres.

Soriano’s one save makes him the only player on Miami’s active roster with any saves this season, so the Marlins could turn to a committee to handle the ninth inning for the rest of the season.  Bender (in only his third MLB season) has the most experience of anyone in Miami’s bullpen and might be the favorite to close games now that he has recovered from the shoulder impingement that has sidelined him for the last four weeks.  Bender has a 49.2% grounder rate and above-average strikeout and walk rates, and is another Marlins pitcher whose real ERA (4.00) isn’t quite as reflective of how well he has pitched in 2024.

Bermudez returns to the big leagues after he was designated for assignment and then outrighted just within the last week.  He’ll take over the 40-man roster spot left open by Kitchen, who is also heading to the DFA wire for the second time this season.  The southpaw was designated by the Rockies in June and then quickly snapped up by Miami on a waiver claim.

Kitchen made his Major League debut on July 30 and thus far has only a 14.14 ERA to show for his seven innings and four games as a big leaguer.  Six of his 11 earned runs allowed came just yesterday in Miami’s 16-2 loss to the Phillies, as Kitchen had to make a short-notice start when Edward Cabrera was a late scratch due to migraine-like symptoms.  Kitchen is a grounder specialist with good control, and while he has pitched pretty well in the minors, his lack of strikeouts could put a ceiling on his effectiveness against MLB hitters.

Hill has hit .238/.262/.427 over 151 plate appearances with the Marlins, Giants, and Rangers this season, with the 151 PA representing a new career high over Hill’s five seasons in the Show.  Beginning the year on minors deal with Texas, he then went to the Giants for a brief stint after one waiver claim, and Miami again claimed him off waivers just over a month ago.  The Marlins had plenty of holes to fill in the outfield after their trade deadline selloff, and Hill took advantage with some regular work in center field and a few appearances in left.

Sanoja was an international signing for the Marlins in July 2019, and over four minor league seasons has emerged as an extreme contact hitter, with only 136 strikeouts in 1783 PA in Miami’s farm system.  A lack of power has limited what Sanoja has done with that contact, but between his speed and his knack for getting the bat on the ball, he has hit .291/.354/.431 over 492 Triple-A PA in 2024.  Sanoja has stolen 83 bases in 126 attempts in the minors, so there is some extra baserunning potential there if Sanoja can become more efficient with his steals rate.  Defensively, Sanoja is considered to fit best as a second baseman, but he is a decent enough fielder that he can play all over the diamond, so this versatility gives him more of a chance to stick in the Show.

The Marlins figure to use Sanoja at multiple positions during his time on the roster, though the team probably wishes he could pitch, given their larger needs on the mound.  Some reinforcements might be coming before the season is over, as Ryan Weathers and Braxton Garrett have each started minor league rehab assignments.  Neither hurler has pitched since June, as Weathers has been dealing with a finger sprain and Garrett with a flexor strain in his left forearm.

Latest On Marlins’ Bullpen Trade Candidates

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The Marlins should trade a handful of veteran players over the next three weeks. While center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. might be the team’s most interesting candidate, the Fish are also a lock to move at least one reliever.

Closer Tanner Scott, who is on his way to his first All-Star Game next week, has looked likely to move essentially since the Marlins started their season on a nine-game losing streak. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies and Orioles were all linked to the hard-throwing lefty last month. Scott is a viable target for any team with postseason aspirations, though, and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald writes that roughly a dozen clubs have expressed interest.

Scott got off to a rather shaky start to the season. After walking seven of the 34 hitters he faced during Spring Training, he handed out 13 free passes in 12 2/3 innings through the end of April. While Scott worked around the walks to turn in a 2.84 ERA in the season’s first month, he’d likely have been in for regression if he didn’t dial in his command.

To his credit, Scott has taken a step forward in that regard. He has walked 10 of 93 opponents (10.8%) going back to May 1. It’s still not pristine control, but it’s significantly better than the 21.3% walk percentage he’d posted through the season’s first few weeks. Strike-throwing is Scott’s only real question mark. He has some of the best raw stuff in the sport, pairing a 97 MPH heater with a wipeout slider. Opponents have only managed 18 hits over 38 innings. They’re hitting .142/.273/.205 across 154 plate appearances.

While this is the first year in which Scott is headed to the Midsummer Classic, he was arguably even better in 2023. Scott pitched to a 2.31 ERA with a 33.9% strikeout rate and a career-best 7.8% walk percentage over 78 innings last year. Over two and a half seasons in South Florida, he owns a 2.82 earned run average while striking out 31.5% of opposing hitters. He has picked up 45 saves and finished 89 games while working as Miami’s closer for the majority of that stretch.

There’s little reason for the Marlins to hang onto Scott past the deadline. He’s headed to free agency for the first time in his career a few months from now. He’ll be entering his age-30 campaign and should have a case for a three- or four-year deal. A rebuilding Miami team isn’t likely to bring him back. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM arbitration salary, a little over $2.5MM of which is still owed.

As the lone rental in the bullpen, Scott should be the top priority for president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and his staff. Yet the front office is probably open to discussing their more controllable relievers as well. Mish writes that other teams have shown particular interest in left-hander Andrew Nardi, whom the Marlins control for another four seasons. Mish also lists right-handers Calvin Faucher and Declan Cronin as potential trade candidates, though it’s not clear how strong interest is in those cases.

Nardi is probably the most appealing of that group. His pedestrian 4.72 ERA belies excellent strikeout and walk numbers. The 25-year-old southpaw has fanned 29% of batters faced against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s inducing swinging strikes at a lofty 14.4% clip. Nardi has been plagued by a .337 average on balls in play this season but posted a 2.67 ERA across 57 1/3 frames last year. There should be significant interest, although Mish suggests the Marlins may wind up holding onto Nardi to plug him into the ninth inning next year.

Faucher and Cronin were low-cost offseason acquisitions. The former came over from the Rays alongside Vidal Bruján in one of Bendix’s first trades. Faucher has a 3.55 ERA while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents through 33 innings. Cronin, claimed off waivers from the Astros in February, has a 3.35 ERA with solid peripherals over 43 frames. The 26-year-old righty has average strikeout and walk numbers while running a massive 55.7% ground-ball percentage.

Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?

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A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.

New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.

Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.

The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:

Trevor Rogers

Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.

Jesús Luzardo

Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.

If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.

Braxton Garrett

Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.

The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.

Edward Cabrera

Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.

The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.

Luis Arraez

Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.

Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.

Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.

Lefty Relief Trio

Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.

Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.

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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.

Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.

The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.

The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.

The Marlins’ Quartet Of Lefty Relievers

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Heading into the 2023 season, most fans would’ve expected the NL East to contain at least three legitimate playoff contenders. Few, however, pegged that trio to include the Braves, Phillies and … the Marlins. Conventional wisdom said that the Mets’ $350MM+ payroll, the Braves’ perennial excellence and the Phillies’ 2022 World Series appearance made them the teams to watch in the division. But, here are the Marlins, sitting 60-56 on Aug. 9 and tied with the Cubs for a share of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

Much of that success has been attributable to Miami’s strong showing in one-run games. At 26-10 in such contests, the Marlins have been baseball’s best team by a wide margin. Their .722 winning percentage in one-run contests leads the Brewers (21-10, .677) and Orioles (20-11, .645) and is rather comfortably the best in the game. Heck, as I was writing this, the Marlins won another one-run game, thanks to some late heroics from deadline acquisition Josh Bell and the underrated Bryan De La Cruz.

There are certain traits that make a team likely to compete and succeed in large number of closely contested games. A lineup that struggles to score runs in bulk and is heavily reliant on station-to-station baseball — as if the case in Miami — is bound to play in a lot of close games. That’s been an apt description of the Marlins so far in 2023; they entered play Wednesday 26th in MLB with 465 runs scored and 27th with 106 home runs.

A strong bullpen that’s capable of holding the too-often narrow leads afforded to the pitching staff is also a key factor in mastering one-run victories. Again, that’s been the case in Miami for much of the season. While the Marlins shook up their bullpen prior to the deadline, swapping out Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez (an exchange of struggling change-of-scenery candidates) and trading a pair of prospects for David Robertson, the Marlins have generally had a solid relief corps in 2023. Or rather, they’ve had a strong top half of a top-heavy bullpen. Adding Robertson to help deepen the group makes the team better, to be sure, but Miami was already had a strong bullpen group thanks in large part to a quartet of left-handers whom they acquired at virtually no cost.

Chief among that group is hard-throwing 29-year-old Tanner Scott. Long one of the most touted arms in the Orioles’ farm system, Scott was traded to Miami alongside righty Cole Sulser just before Opening Day 2022. The O’s deserve plenty of credit for the team they’ve put together, but this swap is probably one that Baltimore GM Mike Elias would like back. The Fish landed Scott and Sulser in a trade that sent a trio of low-level minor leaguers — Kevin Guerrero, Antonio Velez and Yaqui Rivera — to the Orioles. None of that trio ranks among the Orioles’ top 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs.

Sulser has already departed the Marlins organization — the D-backs claimed him on waivers last November — but Scott has emerged as one of the best lefties in the game. His power arsenal was always tantalizing, but Scott’s lack of command continually proved frustrating for the O’s. That continued into the 2022 season, his first in Miami, but the 2023 campaign has been another story. After logging a 4.31 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and ghastly 15.9% walk rate last year, Scott is now touting a 2.80 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout rate and a vastly improved 10% walk rate. Yes, it’s still too many free passes, but he’s improved it as the season has gone on. Over his past 32 frames, Scott has walked only 7% of his opponents.

Scott entered play Wednesday with a mammoth 17.2% swinging-strike rate and 36.2% chase rate — and that’s before he struck out the side against the Reds in this afternoon’s inning of work. There are only three pitchers in baseball who’ve thrown 50-plus innings and have a higher swinging-strike rate. Scott isn’t working in low-leverage mop-up settings, either. He’s piled up 22 holds and a pair of saves, and only four qualified relievers top him in terms of win probability added (WPA). The Fish are paying him a bargain $2.825MM this season and control him through the 2024 season.

Many clubs would be thrilled to simply have one quality southpaw of this caliber, but the Marlins are deeper than any club in MLB when it comes to lefty relievers. Scott might be the biggest name of the bunch, but the Fish are swimming (sorry, sorry) in quality southpaws. Andrew Nardi might be the most anonymous member of the group, but he’s been nothing short of outstanding this season.

A former 16th-round pick by Miami, Nardi had an inauspicious MLB debut in 2022, pitching 14 2/3 innings but allowing 16 runs in that time. Few fans looked at him and saw a breakout candidate, but in 39 2/3 innings this year, he’s sporting a 2.95 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. He’s been limited by a triceps injury this summer but was reinstated from the IL earlier this month and is back working in a high-leverage capacity. Since picking up his first big league save back on May 7, he’s pitched to a 1.80 ERA with a 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 25 innings. He’s grabbed eight holds and a pair of saves along the way — and both numbers would be higher had he not spent a month on the injured list in that span.

Nardi’s 14.3% swinging-strike rate is excellent, and his 35% chase rate is even better. Virtually no one can square up the ball against the 24-year-old; he sits in the 99th percentile of big league pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in overall hard-hit rate. Nardi doesn’t even have a year of Major League service yet, so the Marlins can control him all the way through the 2028 season, and he won’t even reach arbitration until after the 2025 campaign.

There’s also 32-year-old Steven Okert to consider — a gem unearthed in minor league free agency. The left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason and, at the time, had just 48 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball under his belt — all coming from 2016-18 with the Giants. In three seasons with Miami, Okert has graduated from a generic depth signing to a stalwart member of a talented relief corps. He’s logged 129 1/3 innings with a 2.85 ERA since relocating to South Florida, punching out 30% of his opponents against a 10.6% walk rate.

Again, the walks are a bit too high, but it should be noted that Okert has boosted his strikeout rate to a career-high 33.5% in 2023 while dropping his walk rate to 9% — his lowest mark in three years with the Fish. His velocity has ticked up each season, and the Marlins have scrapped three of his five pitches, turning him solely into a four-seam/slider reliever. Okert pitches more in the middle innings than Scott and Nardi, but he’s still picked up 10 holds. The results are outstanding, and he can be controlled cheaply for three years beyond the current season. Not too shabby for someone signed to a minor league deal three offseasons ago.

Left-hander A.J. Puk might be the most recognizable name of the bunch, thanks to both his lofty draft status (No. 6 overall in 2016) and his inclusion in a reasonably high-profile trade this offseason (sending former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday back to Oakland). Puk’s 4.62 ERA is by far the least impressive of the group, but the underlying numbers are far more impressive. He’s fanned 30.9% of his opponents against just a 4.9% walk rate while recording a swinging-strike rate just shy of 15%. Puk had a sub-3.00 ERA himself in early June before a rough patch that saw him allow runs in six of nine appearances. He’s since rebounded with four straight scoreless outings, whiffing five hitters without issuing a walk in 3 1/3 innings.

Puk has been hampered by a .337 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 63.1% strand rate, prompting metric like FIP (3.41) and SIERA (2.66) to cast a far more favorable light on the lefty than his earned run average does. Puk certainly wasn’t flawless in serving as the Marlins’ primary closer — 15-for-21 in save opportunities — and that, coupled with his rough stretch last month, might have nudged Miami to acquire Robertson. That said, lefties who average 96 mph don’t grow on trees, and Puk’s blend of elite strikeout and walk rates signals better days ahead.

In fact, Marlins relievers as a whole are among the best in baseball when it comes to both piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes. Each of the four lefties profiled here rank in the top 10 of all qualified relievers in terms of differential between strikeout rate and walk rate (i.e. K-BB%). The Marlins are sixth in all of baseball as a collective group in that category, and adding Robertson for the final two months of the season should help them out.

There are plenty of reasons for the Marlins’ success this season. Luis Arraez’s surefire batting title, big steps forward from Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, a dominant debut season from Eury Perez and a rebound effort from Jorge Soler have all helped drive this unlikely playoff push. But heading into the season, few would’ve pegged the Marlins to receive this type of output from their left-handed bullpen corps. Add in the fact that they came to the organization via a minor league deal, a 16th-round pick, and trades sending out three marginal prospects and a former first-rounder who’s still struggling in Oakland — and the core of this bullpen is even more impressive. They’ll all return for the 2024 season at least, and with Robertson helping lead the charge down the stretch in ’23, the Marlins will continue to be dangerous in tightly contested games.

Marlins Announce Six Roster Moves

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The Marlins made a flurry of roster moves prior to today’s game, including the placement of right-hander Anthony Bender on the 15-day injured list due to a right elbow strain.  Righty Tommy Nance was also optioned to Triple-A, right-hander A.J. Ladwig was designated for assignment, and right-hander Cole Sulser was moved to the 60-day IL.  For new faces on Miami’s roster, the club selected the contracts of left-hander Andrew Nardi and right-hander Parker Bugg from Triple-A.

Something was clearly amiss with Bender yesterday, as he lasted only five pitches into a relief outing before having to leave the game.  The severity of the elbow strain isn’t yet known, but given the timing on the baseball calendar, it is possible Bender’s season might be over even if he hasn’t suffered any notable structural damage to his elbow.

The righty already missed close to 10 weeks of the season due to a back problem, and was only just activated off the 60-day IL in early August.  After a strong 2021 rookie season, Bender has still pitched well (3.26 ERA over 19 1/3 IP) this year, though his strikeouts are down and his health problems have cost him a lot of momentum.  Tanner Scott has now emerged as the Marlins’ closer, but heading into the season, there was some thought that Bender could possibly assume the role, and he has the majority of save chances prior to his first injury.

Sulser was another closer candidate, except a right lat strain sent him to the IL in mid-June.  The shift to the 60-man injured list is largely procedural, as the Marlins can now create 40-man roster space, and Sulser’s original timeline is still set from his initial June 13 placement date.  Sulser has been rehabbing at Triple-A and might not be far away from a return.

Bugg and Nardi join the 40-man and 26-man rosters, and are now in line to make their Major League debuts.  Bugg was a 27th-round pick for the Marlins in the 2016 draft, while Nardi was a 16th-round selection in 2019.

The 27-year-old Bugg has worked mostly as a reliever during his pro career, with a few opener-style starts.  Now in his third season at Triple-A, Bugg is delivering good results with a 2.39 ERA in 37 2/3 innings, though his walk rate has been worryingly high.  Over 131 2/3 innings at Triple-A, Bugg has a 13.64% walk rate.

Nardi is just a few days short of his 24th birthday, so this promotion counts as a very memorable early present.  Control was also a problem for Nardi earlier in his career, but over the last two seasons has managed to both limit the walks and increase his strikeout totals.  As a result, Nardi has now gone from A-ball in May 2021 all the way to the majors in just 15 months.  MLB Pipeline ranks Nardi 30th on their list of Marlins prospects, giving 55 grades to his slider and his fastball (which usually sits in the 92-94mph range).

Since the Marlins are coming off a doubleheader with the Braves yesterday, the promotions of Bugg and Nardi give Miami a couple of fresh arms in the relief corps.  This meant a quick departure for Ladwig, who was called up yesterday as the 27th man for the doubleheader.  Ladwig’s brief stay did result in his first MLB appearance, as he tossed 3 1/3 innings against the World Series champs, allowing four runs.  A longtime member of the Tigers organization, Ladwig signed with the Marlins in May after being released by Detroit.

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