While they entered the season viewed as a surefire contender, the Orioles are buried in the standings headed into the second half of the season. Their 35-46 record entering play today leaves them 11 games under .500 and seven games back of a playoff spot. They’d need to leapfrog seven teams in order to fight their way back into one of the AL’s three Wild Card spots, but that doesn’t mean that GM Mike Elias and his front office are entirely committed to selling. Elias spoke to reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASN) about the team’s status headed into July, and revealed that he’s preparing as though either buying or selling this summer are on the table.
“People are making their preparations, they understand that we’re not committed to a path yet, but we’re doing preparation in both directions and have an understanding of where that might go,” Elias said, as relayed by Kubatko. “So we want to keep playing, keep giving this team that we think is very talented, but unfortunately has started off with a bad record, as much chance as we can. But we’re gonna have to ultimately make a decision at some point here in July.”
It sounds as though Baltimore is content to wait for at least a little while longer before committing to an approach for this trade season, though Elias did acknowledge that the Orioles will have to be “realistic” about the amount of time required to act upon their goals for the deadline before adding that it’s “not one or two days.” Whatever path they end up committing to, Elias made clear that ownership is willing to spend this deadline. That can take the form of adding salary in buy-side trades, or perhaps retaining salary on a sell-side trade to bring back a stronger return.
For a team in Baltimore’s situation, a willingness to retain salary can be a game changer in terms of the return they can expect for their players. The Orioles have a number of veterans with relatively hefty salaries who could be potential trade candidates this summer. Zach Eflin ($18MM), Charlie Morton ($15MM), and Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM) all have salaries that could be difficult for some clubs with tight budgets to take on, while even players like Gary Sanchez ($8.5MM) and Ryan O’Hearn ($8MM) could be a problem for teams pressed up against the luxury tax threshold. Eating salary not only makes the player inherently more valuable to the buying club, but it can also allow teams without much money to spend to enter the bidding and expand the overall field of interest for the player.
None of that will matter if the Orioles decide not to sell, but it’s going to require a massive turn around for the Orioles to be realistic contenders for October. As of today, Fangraphs gives Baltimore just a 3.7% chance at making the postseason, and only the White Sox have a more daunting remaining schedule than the Orioles per the site’s strength of schedule metric. With series against the Rays, Rangers, Guardians, and Blue Jays teed up between now and the trade deadline, Baltimore will likely need to win the majority of those series if they’re going to create an argument to avoid selling.
Unlikely as that may seem, it’s hardly unusual for teams on the periphery of the race to hesitate when presented with the opportunity to blow things up. Despite entering the All-Star break with records around .500 last year, teams like the Pirates and Cubs opted to keep their teams largely intact and even do some buy-side trades that brought in controllable assets like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Isaac Paredes. Perhaps there’s room for the Orioles to take a similar approach, and if that is an option on the table, ownership’s willingness to add salary would be a key factor in making those sorts of longer-term additions feasible. Sandy Alcantara is controlled for two seasons after 2025 and is widely considered one of the top players available this summer, but Edward Cabrera, Mitch Keller, Jarren Duran, and Bryan Reynolds are among a smattering of other players with multiple years of control remaining who could be moved this summer.
The trade deadline wasn’t the only thing Elias addressed in his comments to the media today, however. He offered praise for interim manager Tony Mansolino, who has led Batlimore to a 20-18 record since taking over for Brandon Hyde earlier this season. Elias applauded Mansolino’s performance, saying the 42-year-old is “handling it extremely well,” though he went on to suggest that he has not yet made plans regarding the club’s search for a permanent manager. It’s not clear whether that search will include Mansolino or not at this point, but Elias indicated that if he were to have discussions with his interim manager about staying in the role long-term, that conversation would come “a little later into the year.”
Something else Elias suggested Orioles fans could keep an eye out for later this year is the debut of top catching prospect Samuel Basallo. Elias acknowledged that he “hopes” to see Basallo in the majors this year, and while he added that his defense behind the plate needs work, he left the door open to some development at the big league level in that regard.
“Catching is the area that there’s still a lot of development left for him, and not all of that’s gonna be in the minors. But his bat is more ready than the catching and that tends to happen, and it’ll be developing in the majors, too,” Elias said, as relayed by Kubatko. “But I think the experience that he’s getting, catching in Triple-A right now, is still really, really valuable. The game-calling, the handling veteran pitchers.”
That’s a notable shift in tone from comments Mansolino made about the possibility of a Basallo call-up. The manager told reporters just last week that he hopes to see Basallo “knock the door down” to the majors after he “absolutely destroys Triple-A in all facets of the game.” Those comments seemed to suggest the Orioles wanted Basallo to do relatively minimal development at the big league level, but it’s possible that recent injuries to Adley Rutschman and Maverick Handley that left the Orioles with a tandem of Sanchez and Chadwick Tromp behind the plate could have changed Baltimore’s thought process regarding their top prospect.
If the Braves and Orioles move their expiring assets and spend some $ this off-season I predict an ATL-BAL WS in ’26.
I don’t buy that, Irv (stud W)
The Orioles are sooo inconsistent and quite frankly, I don’t think Elias has drafted all that well
Also, I do not trust him to hire a good manager, if Rubes hadn’t canned Hyde…… the Orioles would still be stuck with him
No, it’s a Dumpster Fire at OPACY and Elias is the cause
I sadly agree, we could’ve had Witt and Henderson leading our core. No shots at Adley but that was a real blunder.
We wouldn’t have drafted Witt and Henderson together. 2 High school shortstops? Adley was the consensus #1 pick. Sometimes you wind up being fortunate when you get to pick 2nd
MrSplash — That’s a hilariously hind-sighted/incomplete take. What about Jackson Holliday…shoulda taken Zach Neto… probably a real blunder too? The draft is an imperfect science.
2 All Star SS’s better than All Star SS and All Star Catcher. Not sure that’s right.
For fun, try looking up how many All Star Catchers have been drafted since Adley, vs All Star Short Stops.
“When looking for a perfect Rose, don’t over look an Orchid” — Buck Schowalter
You say that so confidently like no team has ever drafted 2 SS out of HS with their first 2 selections.
That makes zero sense considering Neto was drafted in the first. Way before our second pick. Holiday was the consensus #1 that draft but Adley wasnt the consensus #1 that draft don’t be delusional man. Many people had Witt over him. And Henderson profile fits more for 3rd. Y’all talk as if having 2 SS all stars who could potentially be MVP candidates is a bad thing smh
MrSplash — Jackson is to Neto, as Adley is to Witt Jr. (everyone is a first round pick here, dunno why you’re getting confused about 2nd round).
And I think you have the drafts reversed: Adley was heavily favored top pick, but Jackson was in a draft with the other legacy highschoolers.
Just think your still mixing things up here.
Not to mention the large gaps of unknowns involved in the Witt Jr/Henderson view. Adley took a discount, dunno if Witt Jr would have. If Witt Jr did take the discount so they can sign Gunnar, does Gunnar still want to sign as the second fiddle HS SS and goes to college.
It could have been the Os wanted both as you suggested, but maybe they knew it couldn’t work out.
Just saying, a blunder?? Not even close.
I don;t know anything about Buck Bumble!
Who’s the All Star catcher? Witt at SS and Gunnar at 3B. Nice problem to have.
I like that! Once all the youth in Baltimore gets a full year in MLB, it’ll be a sight to see. Even Trevor Rogers is looking the part. Both teams are in a great position to reload for ’26.
“If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.” — Obi-Wan
Obi Wan Canoli!!!
Does anyone believe they are going to consider moving Adley? I know his offense has fallen off. How is he doing defensively and in leading the staff? To me, those two things are way more important for a backstop than hitting.
I would try my darndest to lock in Adley and Gunnar and then focus on pitching during the off-season. The O’s need to stop dreaming of home runs and thinking that all of their prospects are the next Bob Feller or Ted Williams.
Adley is unlikely to net much. At this point he is Matt Wieters.
They need to trade for a controllable starting pitcher, or they are out of the race in 2025 and 2026.
And the other starters stay healthy. Probably need more than one
Elias ought to take some pictures and really savor this season, it’ll be his last in Baltimore. Really shouldn’t get hired as a decision maker anywhere after this but I’m sure he’ll fail upwards.
If he sticks, I can see Coach Mansalino getting the fulltime Mgr gig. If the owner moves on from Mike, I’m thinking “house cleaning”. The owner is in his late 70s, which way is gonna get him in WS contention quicker.?
Meanwhile, the Dodgers recognized that Rushing is second-best catcher in the organization and called him up, “development” be damned. These decisions aren’t that hard. The Orioles’ mismanagement of their prospect pool and competitive window (if it even still exists) will be studied for years.
“if it still even exists”… Brah, what are you talking about?? Cowser, Westberg, Jackson, Mayo, and Kjerstad are roughly at a full service year of AB’s. 1 year of 6.
Bananas take.
Rushing is 24 years old and had over 300 at bats in AAA, over two seasons, before being recalled. Basallo is 20
Polishing up his resume? Elias should be considering what his options will be after he is fired this coming offseason if he even makes it that far.
Eat some money and trade Sanchez and Sugano, but I’d consider extending O’Hearn and parting ways with Monty
Why would anyone want Sanchez, even for free?
Monty is unmoveable at this point.
Here we are in the middle of the ball season and the Orioles are in last place and playing like it. Mr. David Rubenstein please remove the entire Elias group and hire a president of baseball operations of your liking and your choice. The Birds window of winning and lift off hasn’t happened in Baltimore instead we are going backwards.
Yeah, sure. Rubenstein is going to replace the FO one year after buying the team. After green lighting a $60m million payroll increase (which would have been $100m if Burnes took their offer).
Delusional. Elias will be the GM 5 years from now.
The offer to Burnes was crafted so that he wouldn’t take it. The spent 60M and got worse at SP and RF, and that was before anyone stepped on the field.
@Memorial He took less to play in Arizona. Are you saying they deliberately offered more $ so he would not take it??
Elias the scout does well. Their drafts for position players have been very good since he started.
I am not a fan of Elias the GM. One year of Burnes and an extension offer made that was known not to be acceptable. Both big acquisitions last winter (Sanchez and O’Neill) are busts. Sanchez should not be catching at MLB level at this point either. The shine is also wearing off Eflin because he can’t stay healthy, Sugano is wilting in the Baltimore summer, and Morton, Rogers, and Gibson have not played to their expense.
If he’s still the GM 5 years from now, the Orioles will not have a WS to speak for it. They may not even have any of their current young core, as no extensions seem to be imminent.
Dude is delusional. No way it’s worth buying for a playoff push.
He said nothing about buying for a playoff push in 2025. Not a word.
Regardless of what combination of moves they’ll make, it will be trading rentals, not acquiring them. The 2026 rotation starts with Bradish, GRod, Kremer, Povich, Rogers and other guys currently in the organization.
They’d make a deal for a guy like Alcantara or Lodolo, but only with control for 2026-27.
Considering the mishandling of not trading guys for pitching, not drafting enough pitching or signing enough pitching, the deadline strategy should be to fire Elias. He has earned the pink slip by squandering the talent in the organization. There is never enough time to win big.
handling it extremely well. he is 20-18. obviously Mike, you built a non-playoff roster.