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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Their rebuild underway, the Brewers will spend the offseason entertaining offers for Ryan Braun and trying to find players capable of filling spots until reinforcements arrive from the minors.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Braun, OF: $76MM through 2020 (includes $4MM buyout on $15MM mutual option for 2021)
  • Matt Garza, SP: $12.5MM through 2017 (plus club/vesting option for 2018)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Brewers Depth Chart; Brewers Payroll Information

The Brewers spent 2016 taking advantage of the biggest asset rebuilding teams have that contending teams don’t: the ability to use playing time to evaluate players on the fringes. That process got them good seasons from infielder Jonathan Villar, outfielder Keon Broxton and pitchers Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, as well as lesser but still productive years from infielders Hernan Perez and Chris Carter and pitchers Jacob Barnes and Jhan Marinez.

The Brewers therefore appear to have options that are at least reasonable at many key positions. Guerra and Davies look set for the Brewers’ rotation, with the team also having Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta in tow. (Peralta could be a non-tender candidate following an underwhelming season in which he posted a 4.86 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9, but he performed well in the big leagues down the stretch after a stint in the minors, so it might be more likely the Brewers keep him.) In the bullpen, there’s new closer Tyler Thornburg, along with Carlos Torres, Rob Scahill and Corey Knebel.

That isn’t the core of a good team, but GM David Stearns and the Brewers likely don’t expect to be good right now. Instead, they’ll wait on new arrivals from their highly regarded farm system, and continue to try to sort out who among their current big-leaguers will be able to help their higher-upside young players.

At catcher, the Brewers will likely retain Martin Maldonado, who batted .202 and slugged .351 but with a respectable .332 OBP last season. Maldonado profiles as a backup, but the team still likely won’t pursue an established starter at the position, instead likely preferring to get looks at Andrew Susac, who they acquired when they shipped Will Smith to the Giants. The 26-year-old Susac struggled to get his big-league career going, but he’s generally hit well in the minors and still only has 1,660 career professional plate appearances since being drafted in 2011. He could benefit from more regular playing time.

In the infield, the Brewers will probably keep Carter at first, although it’s not out of the question they’ll trade or even non-tender him, since the arbitration process will value him more for his gaudy home run totals than his obvious weaknesses. Considering non-tendering a player coming off a 41-homer season may seem crazy, but Carter’s 2016 was worth just 0.9 fWAR, and his career 31.9% strikeout rate, .218 batting average and -29 Defensive Runs Saved mean he has to hit home runs at a furious pace to be more valuable than the $8.1MM salary we project he’ll receive. The Brewers have suggested Carter will return, although that isn’t yet certain.

Assuming Carter is back, he’ll presumably have the speedy Villar next to him at second base, since the team has said it prefers not to use Villar at third. That could leave Scooter Gennett without a job. Gennett’s .263/.317/.412 line in 2016 placed him near replacement level for the second consecutive year, partially because of his defense, which advanced metrics rate as mediocre. Perhaps the team could retain him and shift him to third, but it’s probably more likely he’ll be traded to a team with a big hole at second base, or perhaps non-tendered. Villar spent much of 2016 at shortstop, but well-regarded youngster Orlando Arcia will likely man the position next season.

The Brewers’ plans for third base are less clear. Perez played well while manning third part-time last year, batting .272/.302/.428 with 34 steals. His track record, though, suggests that a repeat of those numbers is unlikely, and he might profile better as a super-utility type anyway (which would still mean he’ll wind up with plenty of playing time).

That could leave the Brewers hunting for someone to play the hot corner.  An up-market player like Justin Turner seems highly unlikely. Someone like Luis Valbuena (who was previously in the Astros organization with Stearns and several current Brewers players) would make sense, particularly given that he bats left-handed and would help balance the Brewers’ very righty-heavy lineup. The team could also pursue a short-term veteran option like Kelly Johnson or old friend Aaron Hill. Johnson would make a certain amount of sense, since he and Perez could potentially form an effective platoon. Alternately, the Brewers could hunt for a trade option, or a non-tendered player, hoping to find a bit of upside, just as they did last season when they signed Will Middlebrooks to a minor league pact.

Ryan BraunThe complexion of the Brewers’ 2017 outfield will depend in large part on the potential Braun deal — the move, or non-move, that will define their offseason. Following their trades of Yovani Gallardo, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Jonathan Broxton, Gerardo Parra, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind, Jean Segura, Khris Davis, Aaron Hill, Jeremy Jeffress, Jonathan Lucroy and Smith in recent years, Braun is one of the few valuable veterans the Brewers have left. Their return if, or when, they do finally trade him could go a long way to determining how they fare in the near future.

Braun batted .305/.365/.538 last season in his best offensive performance since 2012, so this winter would seem like an ideal time for a deal. Last summer, the Brewers and Dodgers reportedly seriously discussed a swap involving Braun, with Yasiel Puig, Brandon McCarthy and prospects heading to Milwaukee. It’s unclear how close that trade was to actually occurring, but it seems the two sides will revisit the deal this offseason, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Braun in Dodger blue in 2017.

The value of the Brewers’ side of the deal would, of course, depend fairly heavily on the prospects involved, but the inclusion of Puig and McCarthy already makes the trade an interesting one from the Brewers’ perspective. Part of the Dodgers’ likely intention in including those players was to offset Braun’s salary, since Puig and McCarthy are set to make a combined $39.5MM through 2018. But neither Puig nor McCarthy fits the usual profile of a salary dumpee. The Brewers would get to gamble on the 25-year-old Puig’s upside, which remains considerable despite his trip to the minors last season. They would also get a solid veteran arm (albeit one who’s only recently come back from Tommy John surgery) for their rotation. McCarthy is only two years removed from pitching 200 innings with a terrific 2.85 xFIP and 52.6% ground-ball rate.

Should the Brewers be unable to consummate a Braun deal with the Dodgers, they would have no shortage of other trade suitors (although Braun’s limited no-trade clause could be a problem — as of earlier this year, he could block deals to all teams except the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins). The Giants and Braves have reportedly also had interest in Braun, and it’s likely other teams would as well. While acquiring someone like Puig in return for Braun makes sense, the Brewers don’t need to get an outfielder in a Braun deal, since they have a remarkable group of outfield prospects (including Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell and, lower in the minors, Corey Ray and Trent Clark).

Elsewhere in the Brewers outfield, Broxton had an outstanding second half, demonstrating plus speed and defense while batting a remarkable .294/.399/.538 before missing the last two weeks of the season due to a fractured wrist. At 26, Broxton was old for a rookie. His minor league record doesn’t suggest he can maintain the level of productivity he demonstrated in 2016, and it’s possible the wrist injury could affect him going forward. Nonetheless, his legs and glove give him a high floor, and he should be an easy choice to start in center field for the Brewers next season.

In right field, the Brewers will likely continue to give looks to Domingo Santana, with Perez potentially filling in the gaps if Santana struggles. Santana batted a respectable .256/.345/.447. Like Carter, he’s a big man who strikes out excessively and has no defensive value. Nonetheless, he warrants continued playing time, since he’s only 24 and has shown significant power potential.

It makes sense for the Brewers to keep Kirk Nieuwenhuis as a backup outfielder, given that he’ll likely cost less than $2MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Like many Brewers, Nieuwenhuis piles up his share of whiffs and has low batting averages. He’ll take a walk, though, and he plays all three outfield positions well and hits left-handed.

The Brewers could also aim to acquire a bit of rotation help this offseason. Of their current rotation options, only Guerra and Nelson look like much more than back-of-the-rotation types, and it’s not clear what even Nelson will become following a disappointing 2016. Nelson led the NL in walks in 2016, and if his control problems continue, it’s not hard to imagine he could wind up back at Triple-A at some point next season, since he’s optionable.

While the Brewers do have some starting pitching prospects (topped by lefty Josh Hader) who could make an impact at some point in 2017, their current group possesses limited upside and considerable downside — it’s easy to imagine the Brewers’ rotation becoming a real mess if, say, the physically slight Davies got hurt and Garza had a season more like 2015 than 2016. With Sean Nolin out for 2017 following Tommy John surgery, their depth is somewhat limited, too. The organization almost certainly won’t pursue a high-end starting pitcher, but an innings-eater might make sense. The team could also look for a high-risk, high-upside option (someone like Andrew Cashner, perhaps) in an attempt to emulate the Athletics’ success flipping Rich Hill last season. The addition of McCarthy in a potential Braun trade would also obviously help.

The Brewers already have plenty of bullpen arms to sort through, including several, like Marinez, Barnes and Knebel, who possess considerable velocity. They do, however, look likely to pursue a left-hander or two, perhaps on a minor league deal. The only healthy southpaw currently on their 40-man roster is Brent Suter, who has just 21 2/3 career innings of big-league experience and who’s mostly a starter anyway.

Whatever happens, the Brewers don’t appear likely to contend in 2017. There is, however, plenty of evidence that their rebuild is going well. They won 73 games last season, not a bad total for an organization mostly trying to address long-term goals. Their farm system is now much stronger than it was just a year and a half ago, when Baseball America rated it 19th-best in the game — thanks to a couple years of high draft picks and trades for young talent, the organization now has enviable prospect depth, and Arcia is just the first of what should be a long series of high-upside Brewers rookies. 2017 won’t be a pretty season for the Brewers, but there’s talent in Milwaukee, and more on the way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/26/16

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Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Brewers announced that they’ve re-signed right-hander Stephen Kohlscheen to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The 28-year-old spent the 2016 season with Milwaukee’s Double-A affiliate and logged a 2.54 ERA with strong rates of 12.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 49 2/3 innings of work. The former Mariners farmhand found himself traded from Seattle to San Diego alongside Abraham Almonte back in July 2014 — a trade that netted the M’s outfielder Chris Denorfia. Kohlscheen latched on with the Brewers after being cut loose by the Padres last March, and he’ll look to build off this past season’s impressive work and force his way into a Brewers bullpen picture that lacks certainty following the trades of established relief arms Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith.

Poll: Should The Brewers Tender Chris Carter?

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That the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter seems, at first, to be obvious. After being non-tendered by the Astros last offseason, Carter signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Milwaukee, then tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home-run crown, with a career-high 41. Now Carter has 4.159 years of service time, and the Brewers are faced with a decision. Surely it would be ridiculous for them to non-tender him, right?

Chris CarterWell, maybe not. MLBTR projects that Carter will get a very significant bump in salary next year, making $8.1MM through arbitration. While that’s not an astronomical figure, it is high for a one-dimensional player. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz points out, hitters’ salaries during their arbitration seasons are typically evaluated by batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and plate appearances. Carter has never hit well for average or stolen many bases, but he fared very well last season in the other three categories, also amassing 94 RBIs and 644 PAs. In arbitration, counting stats are what matter most, and Carter’s are impressive. In addition, the relative defensive value of a shortstop, say, as compared to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration as it would be on the free agent market. That factor also favors Carter, should the Brewers tender him.

As a result, the amount the Brewers will have to pay Carter through the arbitration process could approach or exceed his actual value. The arbitration process won’t penalize Carter much for his consistently mediocre on-base percentages (.321 this season, .314 career) or his below-average defense at first base (-5.2 UZR in 2016). Via FanGraphs, Carter’s 41-homer 2016 season was worth just 0.9 wins above replacement, largely due to those factors. Also via FanGraphs, the dollar value of that 0.9-WAR season was just $7.1MM, below the $8.1MM he’d likely receive next year through the arb process.

In fact, Carter has only produced more than 1 fWAR twice in his career, thanks to his lack of defensive value and his exorbitant strikeout totals, which prevent him from reaching base. He whiffed 206 times in 2016, and that wasn’t even his career high in that category. Carter was non-tendered last offseason after totaling 90 home runs in the three previous years, even though his salary would only have been a projected $5.6MM. After hitting the open market, he ultimately made less than half that. He would have been worth the $5.6MM in 2016, but neither the Astros nor the free agent market seemed exuberant about his value. That’s worth considering this time around.

It perhaps makes sense, then, that the Brewers appear to be at least considering non-tendering Carter. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that the team had a tough decision on its hands, although GM David Stearns had previously indicated Carter would return.

Then again, 41 home runs is 41 home runs, and perhaps we’re overthinking it. One would imagine that, at the very least, Carter would have value in the right context. Pedro Alvarez, who’s left-handed but has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Carter, got a $5.8MM deal last offseason but produced $9MM in value for the Orioles, generally playing DH. And another whiff-prone, defensively challenged Orioles slugger, Mark Trumbo, got $9.2MM but produced $17.3MM in value.

Also, the Brewers don’t have that much to lose by tendering Carter. They only have two players — Ryan Braun and Matt Garza — under contract for next season, and don’t project to have a high payroll (particularly since Braun is a trade candidate anyway). They can afford Carter. Also, Carter isn’t blocking anyone who would greatly benefit from his playing time. If Carter has another NL-leading home run season, he could perhaps land the Brewers a prospect or two at the trade deadline, or maybe even next offseason, since he’ll still have another year before free agency eligibility. (It should be noted, though, that his projected 2018 salary will be very high if he hits well next season.) There’s also the possibility that some power-starved team could overpay for Carter, given his unique skill set. The Brewers could even tender Carter and then attempt to deal him this winter, if there’s a market.

Perhaps, then, this is much ado about nothing. Tendering Carter seems like the obvious course of action, and perhaps that’s the one the Brewers will take. It’s a decision worthy of serious thought, however. What do you think?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rule 5 Roundup

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We’re just a few months away from this winter’s Rule 5 draft, so it makes sense to take a look back and see how things shook out from the 2015 selections. Several organizations found useful players, even if the most recent class didn’t include an Odubel Herrera-esque breakout sensation. Some of the most recent draftees have probably locked up MLB jobs again for 2017, though others who stuck on a major league roster all year may head back to the minors for further development. (Once a player’s permanent control rights have been secured, his new organization is free to utilize optional assignments as usual for future years.)

Here’s a roundup of the 2015 draft class with the 2016 season in the books:

Keepers

  • Tyler Goeddel, OF, kept by Phillies from Rays: The 23-year-old struggled with the aggressive move to the big leagues, carrying a .192/.258/.291 batting line in 234 trips to the plate, but showed enough for the rebuilding Phillies to hold onto him all year long.
  • Luis Perdomo, RHP, kept by Padres (via Rockies) from Cardinals: It didn’t look good early for Perdomo, but he showed better after moving to the rotation and ended with a rather promising 4.85 ERA over twenty starts. Though he struggled to contain the long ball, and only struck out 6.4 per nine, Perdomo sported a nifty 59.0% groundball rate on the year.
  • Joey Rickard, OF, kept by Orioles from Rays: After opening the year with a bang, Rickard faded to a .268/.319/.377 batting line on the year but held his roster spot in Baltimore. He ended the season on the DL with a thumb injury, though, and may end up at Triple-A for some added seasoning.
  • Joe Biagini, RHP, kept by Blue Jays from Giants: The only Rule 5 pick to appear in the postseason, Biagini was a great find for Toronto. He ended with 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, and now looks like a potential fixture in the Jays’ relief corps.
  • Matthew Bowman, RHP, kept by Cardinals from Mets: Bowman rounds out a trio of impressive relievers. He contributed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 6.9 BB/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go with a monster 61.7% groundball rate.

Retained By Other Means

  • Deolis Guerra, RHP, re-signed by Angels (who selected him from Pirates) after being outrighted: Guerra was in an unusual spot since he had previously been outrighted off of the Bucs’ 40-man roster when he was selected, meaning he didn’t need to be offered back. Los Angeles removed him from the major league roster and then brought him back on a minor league deal, ultimately selecting his contract. Though he was later designated and outrighted by the Halos, Guerra again returned and largely thrived at the major league level, contributing 53 1/3 much-needed pen frames with a 3.21 ERA on the back of 6.1 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9.
  • Jabari Blash, OF, acquired by Padres (who acquired Rule 5 rights from Athletics) from Mariners: Blash’s intriguing tools weren’t quite ready for the majors, but San Diego struck a deal to hold onto him and was surely impressed with his showing at Triple-A. In his 229 plate appearances there, Blash swatted 11 home runs but — more importantly — carried a .415 OBP with a much-improved 66:41 K/BB ratio.
  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B, outrighted by Angels after Orioles declined return: The 25-year-old scuffled in the bigs but was rather impressive at the highest level of the minors, where he walked nearly as often as he struck out and put up a .346/.434/.527 slash with five home runs in 227 plate appearances.

Returned

  • Jake Cave, OF, returned from Reds to Yankees: After failing to crack Cinci’s roster out of camp, Cave impressed at Double-A but slowed at the highest level of the minors (.261/.323/.401 in 354 plate appearances) upon his return to the New York organization.
  • Evan Rutckyj, LHP, returned from Braves to Yankees: Sent back late in camp, the 24-year-old struggled in limited action on the Yanks’ farm after missing most of the season with elbow issues.
  • Josh Martin, RHP, returned from Padres to Indians: In his first attempt at Triple-A, Martin posted 66 frames of 3.55 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
  • Daniel Stumpf, LHP, returned from Phillies to Royals: Slowed by a PED suspension, Stumpf was bombed in a brief MLB stint with the Phils but dominated at Double-A upon his return to K.C., posting a 2.11 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
  • Chris O’Grady, LHP, returned from Reds to Angels: Sent back in late March, O’Grady compiled a 3.48 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the upper minors, though he performed much better as a Double-A starter than he did as a Triple-A reliever.
  • Zack Jones, RHP, returned from Brewers to Twins: The 25-year-old was out with a shoulder injury for most of the year, and ended up being sent back to Minnesota in late June, but has shown swing-and-miss stuff when healthy.
  • Blake Smith, RHP, returned from Padres to White Sox: Smith ended up making a brief MLB debut upon his return to Chicago, but spend most of the year pitching well at Triple-A Charlotte, where he ran up a 3.53 ERA in 71 1/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Colin Walsh, INF, returned from Brewers to Athletics: After struggling badly in his major league stint with the Brewers, Walsh went to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate and put up a .259/.384/.388 bating line over 245 plate appearances.

Central Notes: Ray, Salazar, Cards’ Rotation

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Brewers first-rounder Corey Ray recently required surgery to fix a torn meniscus, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports on Twitter. It seems he suffered the injury while participating in fall instructional activities. The 22-year-old was taken fifth overall out of the University of Louisville in this year’s draft. He spent most of his first professional season at the High-A level, where he struggled to a .247/.307/.385 batting line. Though he’ll lose some opportunities in instructs, it seems fair to think that the meniscus issue won’t pose a major road block in Ray’s hopeful path to the majors.

Here are a few more notes from the central divisions:

  • Though indications had been that the Indians may be able to receive a contribution from righty Danny Salazar in the ALCS, it turns out he won’t quite be ready, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. “He’s doing pretty well, but he’s not back to throwing all his pitches or letting it go at 100 percent,” said manager Terry Francona. With the team’s “first priority being about getting him back healthy,” said the skipper, Salazar won’t be pushed.
  • The Cardinals will have some sorting to do in their rotation this winter, and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (slideshow link) handicaps the odds of the various internal options heading into the offseason. With Lance Lynn hopefully returning from Tommy John surgery and Alex Reyes all but nailing down a spot, that could leave several rather heralded arms on the outside looking in. Among them are Luke Weaver, Jaime Garcia, and even Michael Wacha. Weaver excelled in the upper minors and showed plenty of promise (but also some areas for improvement) in his MLB debut; he’ll likely return to Triple-A. Garcia remains a major question mark with the team undecided on his option. “There were nights where he looked like he was a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, and then there were nights where I’m sure the manager wanted to punch me,” GM John Mozeliak said of the enigmatic southpaw. And in the biggest head-turner of them all, Wacha is likely out “on paper,” as things stand, in Frederickson’s analysis. That’s still likely open for debate, and certainly is subject to health considerations.

Central Notes: Tigers, Royals, Peralta, Brewers

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Tigers GM Al Avila tells Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press that he takes full responsibility for the team’s underperformance in 2016. “…[A]t the end of the day, I make those decisions and you’ve got to put a lot of the blame on myself,” said Avila. “So the guys that we brought in — and let’s say they didn’t perform for whatever reason — that’s on me. As Fenech explores, about $56MM of the Tigers’ 2016 payroll was dedicated to free agent signings Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Lowe and Mike Aviles. That quintet of players, however, fell woefully shy of expectations and finished the season with a collective performance that was scarcely better than replacement-level. Fenech notes that Avila fared much better on the trade market — Cameron Maybin, Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson — and will probably have to be more active in that regard this winter anyhow due to the lack of appealing free-agent options.

More from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star explores some potential trade scenarios for the Royals, noting that the team’s desire to shed payroll could result in moving a player who has been central to the team’s previous run of success. However, Dodd also reports that to this point, Kansas City “has shown little inclination to trade one of its central players,” so the listed scenarios are predominately speculative in nature. Among the soon-to-be free agents are Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Wade Davis, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar — each of whom will hit the open market following the 2017 season.
  • The infield is a source of some uncertainty for the Cardinals heading into the 2017 season, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. However, unlike many clubs with positional uncertainty, St. Louis’ problem isn’t a lack of options but rather a number of potential fits. The hot corner looks to be Jhonny Peralta’s entering next year, Hummel surmises, as Matt Carpenter could play either first base or second base — representing another position change for the versatile infielder. Peralta acknowledged to Hummel that rookie Aledmys Diaz has seized the shortstop gig and will play there moving forward, and the veteran didn’t have any complaints about the move. Nonetheless, Hummel writes that Peralta could potentially be dealt this offseason as well, if there’s interest, noting that he’s owed $10MM next year in the final season of a front-loaded four-year, $53MM pact. The presence Matt Adams and Kolten Wong (as well as potential interest in re-signing Brandon Moss), of course, only further clouds the infield picture.
  • Brewers GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell spoke to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel about the team’s 2016 season and explained that many of the incremental goals the team set for itself were met, even if there’s still quite a bit of work to be done. Counsell spoke positively about the competition among players not only at the minor league level but also at the big league level as a particular source of excitement for him. As Haudricourt notes, the Brewers led the Majors in stolen bases and also came second only to the Blue Jays in pitches per plate appearance (3.97), which resulted in a staggering increase in walks but also an uptick in strikeouts. The Brewers struck out too often and ranked in the bottom third of the league in overall runs scored, so Stearns isn’t celebrating the increase in selectivity just yet. “I think ultimately you evaluate offense by the number of runs you create,” said the GM. “All offensive contributions are geared toward creating runs. Clearly, we’d like to create more runs in the future. We can get there in a variety of ways. There’s no prescribed way to build a lineup. We have to be flexible in how we approach run creation.”

Heyman’s Latest: ChiSox, Santana, Cozart, Rockies, Davis, Brewers, Smith

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Jon Heyman of Fan Rag gives his odds on the postseason and provides a host of interesting information in his latest notes column. Here are a few highlights:

  • While there’s been some turnover in the White Sox’ dugout, as bench coach Rick Renteria has moved up to manager as a replacement for the departing Robin Ventura, changes to the field staff don’t figure to impact pitching coach Don Cooper, per Heyman. In fact, the South Siders have actually made an extension offer to their well-respected pitching coach, who is on the brink of entering his 16th season at that post.
  • While it’s hardly a surprise, Heyman notes that the Indians will exercise their $12MM option on Carlos Santana. For a player with a .259/.366/.498 with a career-high 34 homers, that decision was a no-brainer, even for a typically cost-conscious club like Cleveland.
  • The Rockies quietly made a run at Cincinnati’s Zack Cozart prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, knowing that Trevor Story, whose last game came on July 30, was ailing and could miss the remainder of the season. Talks continued into August, per Heyman, but Cozart’s own injury issues arose and made a deal more difficult. It’d have been interesting to see the Rox land Cozart, as he’d have once again become a trade chip for them in the offseason with Story expected to be ready to go for the 2017 season. While talks don’t seem likely to be revisited this winter, the note is another reminder that Cozart is a desirable trade chip for the Reds, who also had a near-swap that would’ve sent Cozart to the Mariners on Aug. 1. Heyman also reminds that longtime GM/president Walt Jocketty will step into an adviser role this winter, leaving GM Dick Williams as the top decision-maker in Cincinnati’s baseball ops department.
  • Sticking with the Rockies, Heyman chronicles the rift that grew and eventually became irreconcilable between now-former manager Walt Weiss and GM Jeff Bridich. Per the report, there was a near-total breakdown of communications between the two. Weiss expressed concern with owner Dick Monfort — who was seemingly preparing to give Weiss a two-year extension and tried to convince him to stay. But the skipper didn’t believe that the two leaders could co-exist, and Monfort ultimately stuck with his GM.
  • Tigers owner Mike Ilitch was serious about pursuing slugger Chris Davis in free agency last winter — so much so that he was willing to guarantee something approaching $200MM, says Heyman. Newly-installed GM Al Avila, however, recommended that the team take another course. Though Davis has been reasonably productive, he hasn’t produced at the levels that earned him his ultimate contract — a $161MM deal with the Orioles.
  • As the Brewers’ brass has suggested, Heyman says that the team is not inclined to utilize Jonathan Villar at third base. With Orlando Arcia seemingly set for his first full season at short, that may well mean that Villar is destined to shift over to second base. If that’s the case, it’s not clear just what role Scooter Gennett will have. The 26-year-old is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility after a posting a below-average .263/.317/.412 batting line in his 542 plate appearances in 2016.
  • Meanwhile, the Brewers may not be sold on the idea of tendering Chris Carter a contract. While the team has suggested he’s expected back, Carter’s 41 homers also make him a good bet to earn a rather significant arbitration raise.
  • The Mariners appear to be “leaning toward” picking up a $7MM option over outfielder Seth Smith. Smith, 34, isn’t quite an everyday player, but has received over 400 plate appearances in each of his two campaigns in Seattle. This year, he hit .249/.342/.415 with 16 home runs, just under his overall career marks. At $7MM, the M’s would be getting Smith for something like the going annual rate for a fourth outfielder, while limiting its commitment to a single season.

Yankees Outright Eric Young Jr., Who Elects Free Agency

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The Yankees announced today that outfielder Eric Young Jr. has elected free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment from the team. He evidently cleared waivers upon being removed from the 40-man roster.

It’s not at all surprising to hear that New York has parted ways with Young, who was acquired late in the year as a speed-and-defense option down the stretch (and in the event of a postseason appearance). With the Yanks already headed home for the winter, and facing a need to clear roster space this fall to protect players from the Rule 5 draft, Young was all but certain to lose his spot.

Young, 31, ended up taking just one plate appearance for the Yankees, though he did get into six games, swiped a bag, and scored two runs. He spent most of the year at Triple-A in the Brewers organization, batting .263/.338/.339 in 329 trips to the plate. Over his eight-year major league career, Young has compiled a .246/.314/.327 batting line with 145 stolen bases over 1,684 plate appearances.

Kim Ng, Four Others Among D-Backs GM Candidates

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The Diamondbacks appear to have compiled at least a preliminary list of potential general manager candidates to take over for the departing Dave Stewart, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). In addition to a quartet of men with ties to the organization, MLB senior VP Kim Ng is under consideration, per the report.

Ng has long been discussed as a front office target for organizations, and has interviewed for top baseball ops positions on several occasions. A former assistant GM with the Dodgers, Ng would become the game’s first-ever female general manager if she is hired for this or another open job.

Additionally, Arizona is looking at current AGM Bryan Minniti and farm director Mike Bell — as has previously been reported. Minniti just completed his second season in that role for the D-Backs after previously serving in a similar capacity with the Nationals. Bell has held his post with Arizona for six seasons.

Former D-Backs’ scouting guru and current Brewers vice president of scouting Ray Montgomery is also under consideration, as is former Arizona AGM Peter Woodfork, who currently works with Ng in the league office. Montgomery went to Milwaukee before the team brought in David Stearns as its GM, a post for which he was also considered. And Woodfork, who has also spent time with the Red Sox, was a part of the Diamondbacks for five years before returning to MLB in March of 2011. MLBTR highlighted his GM candidacy back in 2011.

It is not immediately apparent how complete this list of candidates is, and certainly it wouldn’t be surprising to see it grow. After all, the team only parted ways with Stewart on Monday.

Stearns, Counsell Break Down Brewers Heading Into 2017

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As was the case for many other teams who won’t be enjoying a postseason berth, Brewers GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell spoke with the media to break down the 2016 season and look ahead to the winter. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweeted the pertinent comments.

Despite a dismal record (73-89), Milwaukee had many bright spots this year. That means the coming offseason likely won’t see quite as much turnover as occurred last winter, Stearns suggests and McCalvy tweets. There also won’t be any turnover in the coaching staff, with Counsell and all his field staff set to return, per another McCalvy tweet. An extension for Counsell, whose contract runs through next season, is also a possibility, writes Mike Bauman of MLB.com.

“Craig has gotten the most out of this team, and I feel very good about that,” Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said of Counsell, who took the helm in May 2015 after the firing of Ron Roenicke.

In addition to the coaching staff, Chris Carter will likely be back, the Brewers’ GM suggested (via a Haudricourt tweet). His 41 home runs make him a rather easy choice to return as the team’s primary first baseman, though they’ll also drive a big increase in his arbitration earnings. Carter earned a $2.5MM base salary, with $500K in incentives also triggered, after joining the Brewers via free agency. He is controllable in 2018 as well.

Infielder Jonathan Villar’s position is unsettled, says Counsell, but he’ll certainly have a place after an immensely promising campaign (Twitter links via Haudricourt). The 25-year-old put up a .285/.369/.457 slash and contributed 19 home runs with 62 stolen bases. He led the majors in that last mark, though he also led the league in being caught 18 times on the bases. Counsell explains that the team pushed players’ limits on the bases this year, as McCalvy tweets, calling it a “necessary” step in driving the organization forward.

Fellow 25-year-old Hernan Perez wasn’t nearly as productive overall, but he provides value through his versatility, Counsell adds. He swiped 34 bags of his own while batting .272/.302/.428 over 430 plate appearances on the year. With solid glovework, Perez was worth an even two wins above replacement by measure of Baseball-Reference.com, and won’t even be arb-eligible until 2018.

There are, of course, some places to improve as Milwaukee builds back toward contention. As I advocated in assessing the team’s three chief needs, dealing star outfielder Ryan Braun at a peak in his value may well be a way to drive the rebuild forward. Stearns was understandably noncommittal on the point. “We’ll see what happens,” he said with regard to Braun (via Haudricourt, on Twitter).

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