Free Agent Profile: Corey Hart
After converting to the Brewers' full-time first baseman midway through the 2012 campaign, Corey Hart was expected to miss the season's first month due to offseason microfracture surgery on his right knee. Setbacks in his recovery would end up pushing his return date back, and Hart would ultimately injure his other knee, leading to another surgery that cost Hart the entirety of the 2013 season. Hart is now set to hit free agency more than 12 months removed from his last Major League game.
Strengths/Pros
Power is Hart's biggest asset when healthy. He's posted an ISO north of .225 each season from 2010-12, averaging 29 homers per season in each of those campaigns. In fact, dating back to 2010, the only free agents with an ISO greater than Hart's mark of .235 are Mike Napoli and Curtis Granderson. 
While he's much better against left-handed pitching (as is the case with many right-handed sluggers), Hart still handles same-handed pitching quite well. From 2010-12, Hart posted an .822 OPS and 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Hart will turn 32 years old next March, so while he's on the wrong side of his prime, he's young enough that there's no need to expect a sharp decline in his skills. Because he didn't play in 2013, he's not going to receive a qualifying offer and should only command a one-year deal on the free agent market. Hart offers as much raw power as nearly any free agent on the market, but will come at a fraction of the price in terms of years and dollars, without requiring a draft pick.
Weaknesses/Cons
Hart was never an elite right fielder, but after a move to first base in 2012 and what has turned into a severe knee injury, his days in the outfield could be over. If that's the case, and Hart is limited to first base, he doesn't bring much in the way of defensive value. In his brief career at first, Hart has graded out as a poor defender.
Hart's power levels jumped in 2010, and he's been able to sustain those elevated levels, but it's come with an increased strikeout rate as well. Hart struck out in nearly 23 percent of his plate appearances from 2010-12, and he's never been one to take many walks (career 7.1 percent walk rate).
It's also no guarantee that Hart will come back as the same player he was in 2010-12. He's a buy-low candidate for teams in need of power, but should a contending team feel comfortable banking on Hart to hold down a spot in the middle of the order? The Rangers went a similar route with Lance Berkman this past offseason and received little return on that investment.
Personal
Corey is known as a strong family man. He and his wife, Kristina, have two daugters and two sons together. He has been active within the Wisconsin community, participating in charity funds for the Girl Scouts of Milwaukee Area, the Girls of Summer Softball League, the Wisconsin American Legion, Stomp Out Spit Tobacco, Make-A-Wish and more.
Market
Hart has already said that he'd take a discount to return to Milwaukee — the team that drafted him in 2000 and the only organization that he has ever known. The matchup makes sense, too, given the Brewers' lack of a clear internal candidate to man the position. Milwaukee deployed a combination of Alex Gonzalez, Juan Francisco, Yuniesky Betancourt, Sean Halton and Blake Lalli at the position in 2013 and received a ghastly .211/.256/.359 batting line. The Brewers' collective wRC+ of 64 was the worst in all of baseball at first base, making a reunion with their longest-tenured player an attractive option.
Sticking in the midwest, the Twins lack an obvious first base candidate and could afford to take a flier on Hart. He'd be a nice trade chip for their rebuilding efforts should they sell pieces next July. The Indians could deploy Hart at first base and move Nick Swisher back to the outfield, moving Drew Stubbs into a fourth outfielder role. Elsewhere around the league, the Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, Pirates and Rockies all have uncertainty at first base/designated hitter. And with Jose Dariel Abreu now committed to the White Sox on a six-year deal, Hart's competition on the open market has decreased.
Expected Contract
An incentive-laden one-year deal seems likely, and it makes sense for both Hart and his suitors. Interested teams aren't likely to be comfortable guaranteeing multiple years for Hart, and he's young enough to cash in on a strong season and earn a multiyear pact next winter.
Hart earned $10MM in 2013 but could have to take a pay cut. Berkman was able to land a $10MM base salary plus a $1MM buyout on his $12MM option for 2014, but he at least played in 32 games in 2012. Hart, on the other hand, never took the field and is coming off surgery on both knees, making the Berkman deal a lofty open-market goal for he and agent Jeff Berry of CAA.
His track record from 2010-12 is still strong though, and right-handed power is in scarce supply beyond Hart, Napoli, Byrd and Nelson Cruz. Ultimately, I think Hart could command a one-year, $8MM contract on the open market with another $2-4MM worth of incentives. If he's serious about taking a discount to stay with the Brewers, he may play for slightly less than that and settle for a $6MM base salary as a show of good faith to the only organization he's ever called home.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor Moves: Green, Kroenke, Narveson, Lalli
Here are the day's minor moves …
- The Brewers have re-signed corner infielder Taylor Green to a minor league deal after he was recently outrighted, agent Joshua Kusnick announced via Twitter (hat tip to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Andrew Gruman of FOXSportsWisconsin.com). The contract includes several opt outs and an invitation to big league spring training. Though the 27-year-old missed most of 2013 due to injury, he has a nice .311/.386/.513 line in parts of two seasons at the highest minor league level. His major league career line is less impressive — .207/.266/.343 — but it has come in just 154 plate appearances over two seasons. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy has the details.
- The club is also close to reaching a deal to bring back lefty Zach Kroenke, who is also represented by Kusnick, McCalvy reports in the same link. Kroenke has spent much of his time in Triple-A since 2009, splitting time between relieving and starting. Last year, he put up a 4.51 ERA in 129 2/3 innings. His deal does not include an invitation to MLB spring training.
- Meanwhile, both lefty Chris Narveson and catcher/first baseman Blake Lalli have elected to become minor league free agents, notes McCalvy via Twitter. The news was originally tweeted by the Brewers Player Development account. Narveson, who spent 2010 and 2011 in the Milwaukee rotation but has not seen substantial MLB time since, was outrighted back in June. He posted a 5.14 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts this past season. Lalli, who was designated and then outrighted in September, has never been given a real chance in the bigs, but did put up a .282/.334/.447 line in 311 Triple-A plate appearances last year.
- The White Sox recently dealt for first baseman Jackson Laumann, sending the Braves cash considerations in return, reports Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. Laumann, a 20-year-old righty, has done little to impress in rookie ball but will get a new shot with an organization whose amateur scouting department is headed by his father, Doug Laumann.
- Alex Castellanos of the Dodgers remains the only player in DFA limbo at present, as reflected in MLBTR's DFA Tracker.
Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Brewers are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Marco Estrada (4.035): $3.5MM
- Burke Badenhop (5.116): $2.1MM
- Juan Francisco (2.156, Super Two): $1.4MM
When Estrada hit the DL on June 5th for a hamstring injury, he was sporting a 5.32 ERA. A back injury cropped up as well, delaying his return until August 7th. From that point onward, he posted a 2.15 ERA and 5.09 K/BB ratio in nine starts. Estrada will again be a popular sleeper pick heading into next season. For now, his salary projects to remain small, and he hasn't shown enough to justify a significant extension.
Acquired in December last year, Badenhop's 2013 peripherals were nearly a carbon copy of his '12 rates. He remains a useful groundball pitcher, and the Brewers have him for one more year before he's eligible for free agency.
Francisco was a popular trade target after the Braves designated him for assignment in late May. The Brewers dealt for him in early June and he hit .221/.300/.433 for them in 270 plate appearances, trailing off in the season's final month. He was used in a strict platoon, rarely facing a left-handed pitcher while mostly playing first base. Even just for some pop off the bench, Francisco seems worth retaining at $1.4MM.
Assuming the Brewers tender contracts to Estrada, Badenhop, and Francisco, they're looking at a projected $7MM for three arbitration eligible players.
NL Notes: Brewers, Padres, Beltran, Mets
The National League takes center stage as the MLB playoffs continue with Division Series action in Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. Will there be any goats at either PNC Park or Dodger Stadium? Probably not, especially after what happened to the Cubs 68 years ago today when they kicked out Chicago tavern owner Billy Sianis and his goat from Game Four of the World Series. Sianis proclaimed "Them Cubs, they ain't gonna win no more," which started the now infamous "Curse of the Billy Goat." Here's the latest news and notes from the Senior Circuit:
- The Brewers' solid play over the final two months of the season has changed thoughts of a complete teardown to mere retooling, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "Can we win with this roster? Yeah, we can win with the roster we have," GM Doug Melvin told Haudricourt. "I think if our best players are on the field and our young guys take that next step, we can be there." Melvin, however, admitted the Brewers are probably not as talented as in past years.
- The Padres say payroll will increase to $80MM next year, but it still may not be enough to compete in the NL West, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Times. Center opines the Padres need to add a middle-of-the-order bat and could package outfielders Will Venable or Chris Denorfia with a pitching prospect for a corner outfielder or peddle Yonder Alonso for a more traditional power-hitting first baseman.
- Carlos Beltran confirmed he spoke with Mets COO Jeff Wilpon, but would not reveal what was discussed, reports the New York Post's Mike Puma. Beltran, a free agent after the World Series, was diplomatic when asked about a reunion with the club, "I'm going to listen to everybody and we’ll see what happens."
- Wilpon is growing antsy and needs the Mets to start peforming in order to increase attendance and the overall value of the franchise, sources have told Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com. With this in mind and based on his knowledge of the front office and his limited conversations to date, Cerrone lists the Mets' potential free agent and trade targets and one notable name is missing: Shin-Soo Choo.
Cafardo On Arroyo, Kendrick, Braun, Cano
Timing is everything in baseball and Joe Girardi is hitting the open market at the perfect time, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. The Cubs always saw landing Girardi as a longshot, but they'll give it another go this winter. From the Yankees perspective, they'd be foolish not to lock Girardi up with a lucrative new deal, in Cafardo's opinion. Few managers, he argues, could have survived the injuries that the Yankees were dealing with and kept them in the playoff chase in September. If Girardi bails for Chicago or elsewhere, Cafardo suggests Don Mattingly as a candidate. Of course, the Dodgers would have to fire him or work out a trade for that to happen. Here's more from today's column..
- Bronson Arroyo says he wants a three-year deal and he feels his time in Cincinnati is likely over. “I have no preference on where I want to pitch but I’ll certainly consider the team, their chances of winning, and all of that,” he said. “I feel I can pitch effectively at 37, 38, and 39 years old. I’ve never missed a start. Never been injured. I’m not a max-effort guy out there, so there’s no big-time wear and tear on me. I loved Cincinnati but I don’t think they’re in position to give me what I want.” Cafardo suggests the Blue Jays, Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, and Dodgers as possibilities.
- It's looking increasingly likely that Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick will be traded for pitching or prospects. The Royals need second base help and would have interest. The Orioles may also be interested if they cut ties with Brian Roberts this winter. The O's haven't decided what to do with Roberts just yet but they wouldn't go beyond a one-year deal to keep him.
- It has been suggested that the Brewers could trade Ryan Braun, but finding someone willing to take on his baggage and lucrative deal could be tricky. “I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Someone would have to take a big chance and nobody’s doing that on PED guys, especially for that length of contract,” said one exec.
- Bench coach Tony Pena is not likely to replace Girardi as manager if he goes elsewhere. “I don’t think anyone in our front office is even thinking about that,” said one Yankees official.
- Many believe that the Dodgers won't be serious players for Robinson Cano, but things can change with an early exit from the playoffs.
Minor Moves: D’Backs, Brewers, Orioles
Here are today's outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…
- The Diamondbacks have outrighted right-hander Matt Langwell (to Triple-A) and outfielder Keon Broxton (to Double-A) off the 40-man roster, the team announced (via Twitter). Langwell, who was acquired by the Snakes in the Jason Kubel trade, posted a 5.14 ERA in 14 relief innings with Cleveland and Arizona in his rookie season. Broxton, a third round pick in the 2009 draft, posted a .655 OPS in 372 PA at Double-A last year.
- Brewers infielder Taylor Green has cleared waivers and will be outrighted off the 40-man roster, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (on Twitter). Green and teammate Mat Gamel were waived by the Brewers earlier this week (Gamel was recently claimed by the Cubs). Hip surgery cost the 27-year-old corner infielder his season, but Green is a career .311/.386/.513 hitter at Triple-A.
- Haudricourt also reports that the Brewers have outrighted outfielder Josh Prince and right-hander Nick Bucci (Twitter link). Prince, 25, hit .237/.338/.368 with 11 homers and 25 steals at Triple-A this year and receive nine PAs with the big league club. Bucci, 23, missed most of the season with injury for a second straight year.
- The Orioles announced that they have reinstated right-hander Eric Beaulac from the 15-day disabled list and outrighted him to Triple-A Norfolk. Beaulac, 26, was placed on the DL with a torn labrum in his right hip after having his contract selected on Sept. 1. He posted a 1.96 ERA with 20 strikeouts and 17 walks in 18 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A this season.
- As can be seen in MLBTR's DFA Tracker, Clay Rapada of the Indians and Chris Robinson of the Padres are in DFA limbo.
Cubs Claim Mat Gamel
The Cubs have claimed Mat Gamel off waivers from the Brewers, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has seen a once-promising big league career get derailed by injuries and was waived by the Brewers earlier in the week.
Gamel was supposed to fill the void left by Corey Hart early in the 2013 campaign, but a torn ACL squashed what would have been a terrific opportunity for the 28-year-old. Hart didn't play a came this season, meaning that Gamel could have had a full season's worth of at-bats to prove himself for the first time in his career. Instead, Gamel will instead carry a career batting line of .229/.305/.367 to his former division rivals.
Gamel twice ranked among Baseball America's Top 100 prospects and appeared on BA's list of Top 10 Brewers prospects on four separate occasions. He's dominated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .301/.374/.512 batting line and could get a look at third base in Spring Training, as Anthony Rizzo is entrenched as the Cubs' first baseman for the foreseeable future.
Gamel is technically eligible for arbitration this offseason due to spending the bulk of the 2012-13 seasons on the Major League 60-day disabled list. However, his inability to take the field due to injuries in each of the past two seasons should keep his salary just north of $500K, creating little risk for the Cubs should they wish to tender him a contract.
Brewers Waive Mat Gamel, Taylor Green
The Brewers have placed Mat Gamel and Taylor Green on waivers, a source tells Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Both players suffered injuries in 2013 that cost them the entire season.
Gamel was set to fill in the gap at first base after Corey Hart was lost to knee surgery before he suffered a torn ACL. Gamel, who last played a regular season game in 2012, would have been eligible for arbitration if he remained on the 40-man roster. The 28-year-old was once considered to be a top prospect in the Brewers' system but he has never managed to put it together at the big league level. In parts of five big league seasons, Gamel owns a .229/.305/.367 slash line.
Green was supposed to supplant Gamel at first, but he wound up suffering a left hip injury later in the spring and had to undergo surgery. McCalvy notes that the 27-year-old could still be attractive to the Brewers on a minor league deal because he can play first and third base. Even though Corey Hart wants to return to Milwaukee, the first base position is wide open. Meanwhile, third baseman Aramis Ramirez is heading into the final year of his contract.
NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reds, Hinch, Brewers
The Pirates, who tonight will host their first playoff game since 1992, were built not only through the draft, as small-payroll teams often are, but also through trades and free agency, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Tony Watson were drafted by Neal Huntington's predecessor Dave Littlefield, and Huntington drafted Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, Justin Wilson and Gerrit Cole. But the 2013 Pirates were shaped, in large part, by two 2012 acquisitions of former Yankees — the Bucs traded for top-of-the-rotation starter A.J. Burnett before the 2012 campaign, and signed catcher and defensive wizard Russell Martin to a two-year deal after the season was over. Here are more notes from around the NL Central.
- A loss for the Reds tonight could raise questions about the team's future, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is set to become a free agent. And if pitching coach Bryan Price becomes a top managerial candidate with the Mariners, there might be questions about Dusty Baker's future with the Reds as well, since the Reds would likely want to keep Price. Such questions probably wouldn't be resolved right away, however — Baker is due around $4MM next year, and the Reds had 90 wins this year, so there would be no rush to replace him.
- After dismissing Dale Sveum, the Cubs are looking for a manager, and Rosenthal (via Twitter) thinks former Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch might be one possibility. Hinch is currently an assistant GM for the Padres. Rosenthal tweets that, among Padres personnel, Hinch appears more likely for the Cubs job than special assistant Brad Ausmus.
- First base tops the Brewers' list of priorities this offseason, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com writes. Brewers first basemen hit just .206/.259/.370 in 2013, and their primary first baseman was Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit .212/.240/.355. GM Doug Melvin suggests the Brewers could bring back Corey Hart after Hart missed the entire 2013 season, but the Brewers want to learn more about the condition of his knees.
Minor Moves: Velez, Gomez, Diaz, Leon
Here are today's minor moves from around the league…
- The Brewers have re-signed infielders Eugenio Velez and Hector Gomez and catcher Robinzon Diaz to minor league deals with invitations to Spring Training, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. Right-hander Arcenio Leon will also receive a minor league deal but is not being invited to big league camp (Twitter links). Velez hit .314/.398/.472 in 434 plate appearances between the Blue Jays' and Brewers' Triple-A affiliates in 2013. Gomez, 25, hit .196/.238/.255 in 406 plate appearances at Double-A. The 29-year-old Diaz hit .302/.335/.433 in 372 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. Leon, 26, posted a 5.68 ERA with 58 walks and 41 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings at Double-A. Only Velez has extensive Major League experience.
- Chris Robinson of the Padres and Joey Butler of the Rangers are currently in DFA limbo and can be monitored using MLBTR's DFA Tracker.