Random Rumors
Some random rumors to help you get through your Thursday morning…
- As you might imagine, the Rangers are keenly watching and hoping Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. That would free up $7MM for them in each of the next three years. Rangers’ manager Ron Washington’s wish list includes a center fielder, corner outfielder, and first baseman. The Rangers have been connected to Torii Hunter quite a bit, but they’ll have plenty of competition.
- Will the exchange rate free up a bunch of money for the Blue Jays? Perhaps even enough to make a pass at A-Rod? Hey, fans can dream. Mine!
- Something I didn’t mention yesterday – Elijah Dukes is playing winter ball. The Rays still don’t seem to have any room for him in the outfield or at DH. Maybe the Marlins will get involved again? Would Kevin Gregg work?
- Gordon Wittenmyer thinks the Cubs should keep Jacque Jones for 2008, which makes sense. Wittenmyer also believes 22 year-old Felix Pie with 194 big league plate appearances, has proven conclusively that he can’t hit Major League pitching. His suggestion is to trade Pie now.
- Larry Borowsky wants the Cardinals to sign Milton Bradley.
- Jeff Sackmann recommends against Geoff Jenkins‘ $9MM option for ’08, but the decision was tougher than you think.
Brewers Hope To Keep Cordero, Linebrink
A couple of high-priced pieces of Milwaukee’s bullpen have reached free agency – Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink. According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Brewers will make an aggressive offer to Cordero and hope to retain Linebrink as well.
My hunch is that both players leave for greener pastures. Cordero seems likely to earn at least a four-year, $40MM deal. That’s elite closer territory. Linebrink should be compensated in the three years, $15-18MM range. While backloading is possible, the Brewers would be looking at adding $15MM per year on average to keep this pair.
My back of the napkin math says the Crew has around $60MM committed for ’08. Only Ben Sheets will make more than $10MM. The Brewers’ Opening Day ’07 payroll was about $71MM, so there is room in the budget for both Cordero and Linebrink. The team’s core players are very good and very cheap. The time to strike in free agency is now, so I actually endorse some pricier bullpen/rotation signings to get the team over the hump next year. I might go after Cordero but let Linebrink go. The Brewers could take payroll to a mere $80MM and have the best team in the NL Central.
Brewers Hope To Retain Francisco Cordero
This may just be feel-good lip service, but both Francisco Cordero and Doug Melvin are talking about keeping the closer in Milwaukee.
There are a decent number of free agents with closing experience. But if you take Mariano Rivera and Jason Isringhausen off the board, Cordero’s the best available. As pitchers often do, Cordero’s improved his control and strikeout rate coming over to the NL.
In a market where setup men are priced at three years and $5-6MM annually, Cordero figures to cost $10MM over four years at the least. It’d probably make sense for Cordero to wait and see what Rivera and Isringhausen get in terms of average annual value. Cordero’s agent Bean Stringfellow got Billy Wagner his four-year, $43MM contract in November of ’05.
Padres Like Josh Towers
Throw 30 year-old starter Josh Towers into a big ol’ ballpark in the National League, and he could be a very useful back-rotation guy. The Jays already saw this happen with Dave Bush. With a 3.6 K/BB and a home run problem, Towers is definitely San Diego’s type.
Turns out that Padres GM Kevin Towers pursued Josh Towers this summer but wouldn’t part with Nick Hundley, Will Venable, or David Freese. The Jays can either go to arbitration with Towers this winter or nontender him. Even if arbitration would result in a salary around $4MM, it might make sense to sign and then trade him.
You can view my complete list of non-tender candidates here.
Another tidbit: the same San Diego Union-Tribune column linked above mentions that the Padres asked for Tony Gwynn Jr. from the Brewers during the Scott Linebrink discussions.
Random Rumors: Erstad, Gagne, Podsednik
Here’s a smattering of random rumors.
- The Twins have tried and failed to acquire Mike Piazza, Jermaine Dye, and Kevin Mench. Instead of Dye, the White Sox offered up 33 year-old outfielder Darin Erstad, he of the .671 OPS. The Twins passed.
- Eric Gagne will apparently earn Type A status as a free agent, despite pitching only two innings in 2006. Rob Bradford has the details. This was apparently a big factor for the Red Sox in making the deal.
- The Chicago Sun-Times debunks a rumor that the Cubs are trying to trade for Scott Podsednik. How come I wasn’t told about this rumor previously? Who started it? I feel left out.
- The Pirates and Tigers are still talking about Jack Wilson. Apparently the deadline version of the deal died when the Bucs asked for Craig Monroe. Really? The deal died over that guy?
- Gordon Edes has a Major League source indicating that the Orioles are "the kind of team that might have interest" in Wily Mo Pena. That’s not the same as saying that they do have interest, however.
Failed Trades
Let’s take a look at some deals that almost happened yesterday.
Kyle Farnsworth for Bob Wickman. This would’ve been fun, reunions with former teams for both players. However, the Braves wanted the Yankees to pick up all of Farnsworth’s salary, apparently. Brian Cashman didn’t want to make him go away that badly, and Wickman would probably be a nonfactor back in the AL.
Mariners acquire Mark Loretta. Eh. Let’s not overstate the abilities of Loretta. It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him.
Rockies send Jeff Baker and others to Tampa Bay for Dan Wheeler. We can’t really evaluate this one without knowing who else would’ve been involved. And the Rays don’t really have a place to play Baker; they’re already squeezed finding playing time for Jonny Gomes. If Rocco Baldelli ever gets healthy they’ll really have a pickle. I mentioned in a recent interview at D-Rays Bay – Wheeler would probably be one of the ten best relievers available if he was a free agent after the season. The Rays can pump up his value and get a promising young pitcher next year, as the Royals did with Octavio Dotel.
Brewers send Tony Gwynn Jr., Zach Jackson, and another minor league for Eric Gagne. This could’ve been the difference-maker that Scott Linebrink ain’t in a tight NL Central race. But it doesn’t seem like Doug Melvin got a chance to counter the Red Sox offer, so you can’t really fault him.
Red Sox send Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen to White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Well, there has to be some statistical way to evaluate whether this pair beats two draft picks. You’d have to know the attrition rates of first/second rounders, and get some scouts on Pena and Hansen to see if they can ever reach their potential. If I was the Kenny Williams I probably would’ve made the deal. I think Pena gets docked in value from where he was two years ago, but still has pretty much the same upside if you manage him right. Who knows, maybe Williams will go after Pena again this winter.
Yankees Discouraged On Gagne, Cubs Still In?
UPDATE: Peter Abraham confirms that the Yankees seem unlikely for Gagne. He says the Red Sox are offering David Murphy and Kason Gabbard, while the Cubs are still quietly involved. Not sure whether Gagne would have to consent to a trade to the Cubs, but he could be used as their closer without a major uprising.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Yankees aren’t liking their chances to get Eric Gagne. That might mean he’s going to the Red Sox, Mets, or Brewers, or that he’s staying put.
The Mets don’t seem likely given some previous reports and the Rangers’ demand for Carlos Gomez.
The Red Sox would probably give up David Murphy and the Brewers would surrender Tony Gwynn Jr. If the Rangers would settle for Gwynn, a deal could happen quickly because Gagne cannot veto a trade there. However, he can block a move to Boston and that would present another obstacle.
Speaking of the Red Sox, Rosenthal sees their chances for Jermaine Dye faded. After all, that deal would have a no-trade obstacle too.
Latest On Eric Gagne: Brewers Jump In, Red Sox Leading
Deadline day! I’ll be with you nonstop until the trading is done. Eric Gagne is the big name to watch, unless things heat up with Adam Dunn and Jermaine Dye.
- UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal mentioned in his recent column that the Brewers are one of the 12 teams that can acquire Gagne without his permission. So to review: the Yankees, Mets, Angels, Brewers, and eight other unknown teams can acquire Gagne without his permission. He’d need to consent to trades to the Tigers, Indians, Phillies, Red Sox, and 13 other unknown clubs.
- UPDATE: Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe is hearing that the Rangers may prefer to hold onto Gagne and try to sign him to an extension.
- Brewers GM Doug Melvin called up Jon Daniels to see what it would take to add Eric Gagne to his bullpen. We don’t know whether Gagne must consent to a trade to Milwaukee, but I’d guess he does have veto power with them. Francisco Cordero leads all of baseball in saves, so would Gagne set up for him? Melvin would have to pay up both in prospects and salary. The Brewers have some pretty good chips like Manny Parra, Carlos Villanueva, and even Rickie Weeks (could he move to center field?) Tom Haudricourt says the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox are also in on Gagne.
- SI.com’s Jon Heyman pegs the latter three as the suitors, with Boston in the lead even though Gagne would need to approve a trade there. The Red Sox will try to find a deal that doesn’t involve Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester. The Yankees won’t give up Joba or Hughes for Gagne, but maybe they’ll crack on Ian Kennedy. The Mets won’t trade Carlos Gomez for him.
- The Boston Herald says the Red Sox made a substantial offer for Gagne, which certainly did not include Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, or Justin Masterson. Jeff Horrigan talked to one GM who said Boston’s offer was the best.
- The New York Daily News has the Cubs in on Gagne as well. Mark Feinsand says the Yankees turned down a weekend proposal from the Rangers that included Alan Horne for Gagne. Feinsand says Kennedy is not up for discussion but guys like Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, Jeff Marquez, Chase Wright, and Scott Proctor are available. The Yankees have their eye on Al Reyes as a backup plan but the Rays don’t want to trade him within the division. Feinsand believes the Red Sox would do David Murphy and Kason Gabbard for Gagne. Of course they would.
- The New York Post talked to a scout who believes there’s a 75% chance Gagne is dealt today. The Indians and Tigers appear to be out of the mix. Scott Boras remarked yesterday that Gagne only wants to go where he can close. But it’s not entirely up to Gagne now is it, Scott?
- Newsday confirms the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and Brewers as the finalists for Gagne. Kat O’Brien adds Dan Wheeler as another name the Yanks will consider if they don’t get Gagne. The Yanks could relent and give up Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner to get Gagne.
Filling In The Gaps On The Failed Dye Trade
A few pieces of information were revealed today on the failed three team trade that was to send Jermaine Dye to Boston.
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox would’ve had to surrender reliever Hideki Okajima in order to get Dye. Whether Okajima would’ve ended up with the White Sox or the third club is unknown, but Chicago makes the most sense. Okajima has been absurdly good this year – he’s allowed five earned runs in 51.2 innings. The unexpected huge success of he and Takashi Saito should cause MLB teams to sign every Japanese reliever with a functional arm this winter. Of course, the Red Sox refused to give up Okajima to get Dye.
Meanwhile, Buster Olney reported that the third team was the Brewers. RotoWorld speculated that the Red Sox may have been trying to get Derrick Turnbow from Milwaukee. The White Sox might’ve been eyeing Turnbow as well. Kenny Williams is also known to like Manny Parra.
Devil Rays Swap Seth McClung For Grant Balfour
Drays Bay broke the story tonight: the Devil Rays sent Seth McClung to Milwaukee for Grant Balfour. A change of scenery isn’t a bad idea for either player.
McClung gets a lot of attention for his ability to light up the radar gun. The Devil Rays were wishcasting him as their closer as recently as last year. The problem for a while now has been his ridiculously bad control. He’s 26 now. Let’s see what Mike Maddux can do with him. Or at least what Stan Kyles can do with him.
Balfour has spent a ton of time under the knife; I covered his travails in this post. He’s 29 presently. Given the Devil Rays’ bullpen, he could be closing by year’s end (said with tongue only half in cheek).
Basically, a live arm was swapped for another live arm. We’ll see if anything comes of it.