Brewers Trade For Scott Linebrink
According to MLB.com, the Brewers have acquired setup man Scott Linebrink for prospects Will Inman, Joe Thatcher, and Steve Garrison. Let’s take a look at this deal.
Linebrink turns 31 in early August. Trade rumors swirled around him this offseason, especially involving the Phillies. His strikeout and walk numbers over the past three seasons have been consistent. However, in 2006 his less controllable numbers like hits allowed and home runs spiked somewhat. He was still worth a good 3-4 wins last year according to Baseball Prospectus.
However, Linebrink fell off a cliff this year. From Day 1 his strikeout rate has been way down; he’s allowed a ton of home runs. You almost have to wonder whether he’s healthy. He got by for the first two months with the reduced strikeout rate, but it caught up to him in June and especially July. Even as a seventh inning guy his value is very questionable. The Crew should recoup a draft pick or two when he leaves after the season, so that’s something.
My trusty Baseball America Handbook tells me that 20 year-old righty Inman is clearly the jewel of the trade. He’s a tough competitor; his 1.71 ERA in Low A ball last year was ridiculous. He does not offer dazzling stuff or projectability, however. He succeeds on the strength of his command and breaking stuff rather than velocity. He breezed through High A this year, posting a 1.72 ERA in 13 starts.
However, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein questioned how his "below-average stuff and elite-level command" would play at Double A. The results in his first eight starts at that level have been mixed at best. He’s taken a couple of shellackings, but has looked solid in his last three efforts. Goldstein wonders whether he may be a Yusmeiro Petit type, a guy who used deception to post some great minor league numbers despite mediocre stuff. Petit fooled the Marlins enough for the Mets to snag Carlos Delgado, at least.
Inman is very young for Double A; put him in PETCO in 2009 and I don’t see why he can’t keep his ERA under 5. Doesn’t blow you away but innings eaters are fetching $8MM annually these days. Great move by Kevin Towers, because he won’t miss Linebrink. He can’t lose.
Didn’t know much about the other two prospects. Thatcher is a 25 year-old southpaw reliever, another guy with average stuff. The results have been excellent through Triple A though. He’s got a cut fastball, sweeping slider, and fine control. He was ranked 23rd among Brewers prospects by Baseball America.
Garrison is a 21 year-old southpaw starter, ranked 27th on the Brewers’ list. He’s working in High A currently. He too has average stuff without great velocity, another command guy. See a theme here? The pitchers plucked by Kevin Towers don’t light up radar guns or make scouts drool, but still look like big league contributors.
You have to give this one to Towers, who traded from a position of strength to snag three pitchers known less for projection than probability.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Sexson, Dye
I feel bad for Ken Rosenthal’s family, as they won’t be seeing much of him until August 1st. He’s got another update for us tonight.
- The Mariners are hoping to unload Richie Sexson; can you blame them? To trade for Sexson now would be insane, even with the Ms eating half of the $14MM he’s owed in 2008. He has shown almost no signs of life this season. Rosenthal suggests a Sexson for Matt Morris swap but I’d much rather have Morris.
- The Brewers have considered the possibility of a Jermaine Dye trade. Kenny Williams apparently wants Derrick Turnbow or Manny Parra, which actually sounds reasonable.
- Rosenthal also has some info regarding role players Jeff Conine and Mark Loretta. But even I have a hard time getting worked up over that. I’d like to see a new, interesting name tossed into the rumor mill. Like when Roy Oswalt came up a year ago. How about Rafael Furcal or Jim Thome? They’re free agents after the ’08 season, they should be semi-available.
Graziano’s Latest: Livan, Wily Mo
Dan Graziano at the Newark Star-Ledger has really stepped up in recent days with a lot of insider trade talk. Let’s see what he has in store for us this morning.
- Apparently Josh Byrnes is calling around, actively shopping Livan Hernandez. According to Graziano, the Mets, Braves, and Mariners have expressed interest. To the contrary, Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Mets and Braves are not interested. Who to believe? Hopefully the Mariners do better than Livan if they make a move for a starter. To hear Nick Piecoro tell it, the Diamondbacks are more likely to just opt for the draft picks they’ll get if they let Hernandez leave via free agency.
- The Yankees are in a quandary when it comes to dealing Scott Proctor or Kyle Farnsworth. For Proctor, they want more than just a role player like Ty Wigginton. They want a reliever back, which begs the question – why not just keep Proctor? With Farnsy, the Yanks are reluctant to pay a big chunk of his $5.5 salary for ’08. They should toss in $2MM and see if that’s enough to get Wiggy.
- If the Red Sox can snag Bobby Kielty, they might turn around and trade Wily Mo Pena to the White Sox. Wily Mo in that ballpark with 600 plate appearances? 40 home runs. Might make Theo look bad. Dejan Kovacevic mentions that Epstein is "actively shopping" Pena, and seems to like the idea of the Bucs sending Salomon Torres to Boston for him.
- The Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers are looking at Oakland lefty and impending free agent Joe Kennedy. Kennedy is only 28 and he has had National League success as a starter.
New Plan: Extension For Gagne
The Rangers are throwing trade rumor junkies a curveball – they’re now thinking about hanging onto Eric Gagne and signing him to a contract extension. This development may be related to the limited trade options for the rejuvenated closer.
Keep in mind that the extension talk may just be lip service. As a Scott Boras client, wouldn’t the oft-injured Gagne require a good three years, $36MM guaranteed? That’s my guess. That would be very risky. Assuming Mariano Rivera remains a Yankee, Francisco Cordero will be the only free agent closer near Gagne’s level. Nice timing for Coco, by the way.
I’m still learning how the Elias Bureau determines its free agent classifications. My guess is that Gagne would not earn the Type A designation because he missed most of last year. I’ll have to confirm that. If I’m correct, the Rangers wouldn’t be able to collect much in the way of draft picks if Gagne walks.
Evan Grant also notes that Joaquin Benoit has moven to the forefront as the Ranger reliever must likely to be dealt. Akinori Otsuka‘s injury may prevent him from full re-establishing his value by July 31st. Benoit will not become a free agent until after 2008, and he’s in the midst of a career year after rediscovering his control. The Dodgers and Brewers may be interested. L.A. could get desperate if Takashi Saito‘s injury is serious, although it does not appear to be. On the other hand, it’s certainly in Ned Colletti’s best interest to downplay the injury. For the Brew Crew, Benoit could slide into the closer role in 2008 if they allow Cordero to leave.
Grant adds that the Rangers and Dodgers have had slow-moving talks about Mark Teixeira, and that the Braves were scouting the game on Friday as well. The Braves could’ve been looking at relievers though.
One final note: contrary to a previous report, Grant says Kenny Lofton is drawing significant interest from the Tribe. Lofton’s agent has heard the rumor as well. Kenny implied yesterday that he’d play a corner outfield position if need be.
Melvin On The Dunn Rumor
Brewers GM Doug Melvin had a funny comment on yesterday’s bogus Adam Dunn to Milwaukee rumor:
"I’m taking more calls deflecting these kinds of rumors than I’ve had talking to GMs. There are freaking geeks who get…off on this kind of stuff."
How did this game of telephone get started? According to Mark Sheldon at MLB.com, a Cincinnati radio guy posted the trade as a rumor on his blog, and then apparently Sportsradio 1250 in Milwaukee announced it as a completed deal. ESPN then picked up that radio report, but killed the rumor after Jerry Crasnick spoke to Melvin.
Dunn To Brewers Rumor Quashed
Radio rumors are among the most dubious, because I can’t confirm unless I heard the report myself or a trusted person communicated it to me. So when I heard of a few thirdhand reports of an Adam Dunn to Milwaukee radio rumor, I remained skeptical.
I still haven’t talked to anyone to learn which specific person at SportsRadio 1250 initiated this rumor, but it doesn’t seem completely fabricated given that ESPN picked it up. The scenario:
The Reds would trade Adam Dunn to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr., Matt Wise, and an unknown infield prospect. Wise is solid, and Wayne Krivsky likes relievers. But the bounty still seems too small for the best available slugger. The other red flag is that Wise and Gwynn continued to play in today’s game after the rumor surfaced.
Fortunately, Jerry Crasnick spoke to Doug Melvin and confirmed that there’s nothing to this trade rumor.
Graziano On Greinke, Pettitte
Good stuff today from Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger. Here’s my summary:
- Beyond the Cubs, Graziano lists the Braves, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks as teams interested in pitcher Zack Greinke. If the initial asking price for Octavio Dotel was as high as reported, I can’t imagine what Dayton Moore would want for Greinke.
- Graziano’s Dotel suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, and Brewers. The Red Sox, Rockies, and Indians have been mentioned by other sources. Quite a market for this guy.
- David Weathers is seen as the poor man’s Dotel/Gagne. Let’s see if Wayne Krivsky can get something useful for him. Stormy makes another $2.75MM in ’08 before his contract is up.
- The Mets are mostly focused on a power relief arm, as Roy Oswalt and Dontrelle Willis are said to be unavailable. I have no idea why Willis keeps getting lumped in with Oswalt; they are nowhere near equal. Graziano says the Mets still like Javier Vazquez but the White Sox keep trying to pawn off Jose Contreras instead.
- The Braves are trying to deal for southpaw reliever C.J. Wilson of the Rangers. The 26 year-old has an undeserved 2.81 ERA right now. His control has been worse this year, so he’d have to remain unhittable to be effective.
- The Mariners inquired on Andy Pettitte, but the Yankees aren’t giving up yet.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras
The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:
- Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez‘s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors. Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter. Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement. Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever. The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
- As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter. Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting. I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche. Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
- Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer. He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn. Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
- The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy. I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July. Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
- Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton. The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well. Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
- Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility. Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
- The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter. Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence. I discussed some other options for the Friars here.
Indians, Brewers Interested In Lofton
Kenny Lofton is the perfect mercenary. He’s been with a million different teams, and has 84 games of playoff experience. Even at age 40, he provides an OBP spark atop the lineup. He makes $6MM this year for the Rangers, so there’s about $2.6MM left on his contract. He gets another $100K if he’s traded.
According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Lofton has "drawn significant interest from Cleveland and Milwaukee." Other teams are checking him out as well. It’d be fun to see Lofton back with the Tribe, the team he’s best known for. He actually came up as an Astro though.
As a Cubs fan I’d welcome Lofton back to Chicago. After abandoning the Alfonso Soriano experiment, the Cubs have employed Angel Pagan, Jacque Jones, and Felix Pie in center. None have hit particularly well. I would’ve signed Lofton this winter, working Pie in carefully.
Grant’s column also mentions Sammy Sosa, who is drawing a little bit of interest. With his OBP down to .294, Sosa is being sold as a lefty-masher instead of a regular. Grant believes the Twins and Yankees might find him useful.
Will Griffey Be Dealt?
To hear Reds GM Wayne Krivsky tell it, "There’s a lot of misinformation out there." We’ll try not to contribute to that. But here’s the latest on Ken Griffey Jr.
Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News believes Junior will only go to Chicago or Atlanta; apparently the Mariners aren’t interested right now. Griffey would have to be interested too, given his trade veto power. When McCoy says Chicago, I assume he means the Cubs. The White Sox seem unlikely, but you never know.
The chatter was reignited on Tuesday, when Peter Gammons quoted Griffey talking about how it made sense for the Reds to trade him now. Griffey’s agent, Brian Goldberg, seemed to indicate that the quote from Griffey may have been taken slightly out of context.
Goldberg also mentions in that article that the Reds called Griffey to shoot down a rumor that had him going to the Brewers. That one was new to me, but it sounds like there’s nothing to it.
Griffey would certainly be a helpful addition in right field at Wrigley. However, as Greg Couch writes, the team’s direction with player acquisitions and contracts is an open question right now. Ken Rosenthal, back on June 24th, said the Cubs were not involved in a trade for Griffey. Jayson Stark debunked the Atlanta rumor a few days before that.
Another major wrinkle for any Griffey trade is that he’s knocking on the door of 600 home runs and could pass Sammy Sosa this year for fifth all-time. The Reds would hate to miss out on that good publicity.