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Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, Brewers, Mariners, Oswalt

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In today's notes column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe wonders if the Red Sox would move closer Jonathan Papelbon after the season to open up the closer's role for Daniel Bard. He speculates that the Brewers, Twins, Rays, Braves, and Phillies could be in the market for a closer this winter. Papelbon is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season. 

Let's round up the rest of Cafardo's rumors…

  • Scott Boras said he undervalued Stephen Strasburg last year, even though he eventually signed the largest contract in draft history. Boras added that being around San Diego State coach Tony Gwynn helped Strasburg become prepared for what lied ahead.
  • Cafardo says that New England isn't a high priority area for scouts before the draft because by time they can get out to see the players in the region, it's too late in the game for a cross-checker to confirm anything.
  • Cafardo predicts that Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded this offseason. He'll arbitration eligible for the first time after 2010, though he's been battling rib issues basically all season.
  • He also remarks that the Red Sox would have to play Mike Lowell if they want to showcase him for a trade. Lowell has received just 50 plate appearances since the end of April.
  • Kevin Millwood should become major trade bait as the deadline approaches because he's pitched well and is in the final year of his contract.
  • The Brewers would love to make Randy Wolf available, but no one would take him on with more than two years and $24MM left on his deal. Meanwhile, Milwaukee still isn't sure if they'll try to improve their catching situation or become sellers and look towards next season.
  • The feeling is that once Seattle trades Cliff Lee, pretty much everyone on their roster not named Ichiro and Felix Hernandez will be available as well. 
  • Diamondbacks' CEO Derrick Hall isn't happy with his team's performance and has talked about re-evaluating his management staff. They could be major players at the deadline, with Justin Upton representing the only untouchable.
  • Cafardo says that the feeling among big league executives is that the Dodgers will not give up the prospects necessary to acquire Roy Oswalt, but they would be okay taking on the money.
  • Adam Dunn would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox if they let David Ortiz go after the season, assuming the Nationals don't re-sign him.  

Red Sox In Talks With Twins, Rangers About Lowell

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SATURDAY, 1:11pm: The Twins' field staff is lobbying for Lowell as their need for that type of player is obvious, tweets Rosenthal.  However, the front office has concerns about his salary and durability.

FRIDAY, 5:26pm: The Red Sox are in trade talks with the Twins and Rangers about third baseman Mike Lowell, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com. The Angels, who recently learned that Kendry Morales will definitely miss the remainder of the season with a fractured leg, are said to be "hovering."

With the strong play of Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis, plus David Ortiz's May resurgence, the 36-year-old Lowell has become a sparsely used and expensive bench player. He's in the lineup tonight, but overall he's received just 25 plate appearances over the last month and is hitting .225/.313/.338 on the season.

The Rangers have been connected to Lowell dating back to the offseason, when they had a deal in place to acquire him. Minnesota third basemen are hitting just .211/.281/.281 on the year, so it's a clear position of upgrade. The Mariners and White Sox have also expressed interest in Lowell this month, who is still owed approximately $7.4MM through the end of the season.

In a second tweet, Rosenthal mentions that Boston will likely explore the market for an outfielder, which could tie into a potential Lowell deal. Both Jeremy Hermida and Jacoby Ellsbury are on the disabled list, and Mike Cameron is playing with an abdominal tear.

Odds & Ends: Strasburg, LaPorta, Lee, Padres

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Some items from around the majors on Thursday…

  • Minnesota has signed two draft picks, the highest of which is ninth-rounder Kyle Knudson, reports MLB.com's Kelly Thesier.
  • Washington GM Mike Rizzo says that there are no written or handshake agreements with Scott Boras about how many innings Stephen Strasburg will pitch this season, reports MASN's Ben Goessling.
  • Matt LaPorta, who hit three homers for Triple-A Columbus last night, won't be called back to the majors until the Indians can guarantee him regular playing time, reports Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.  This may not happen until Russell Branyan or Austin Kearns is traded.
  • If Derrek Lee is on the market, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News suggests that the Giants should try to acquire the slugging first baseman.  Baggarly mentions the rumors connecting Lee to the Angels, but thinks Lee might prefer to stay in the NL and play in his native Northern California.
  • MLB.com's Corey Brock says (via Twitter) that in regards to any Padres trades for batting help, "there's nothing imminent in the works" at the moment.
  • Texas has a "serious interest" in A.J. Pierzynski, reports Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com, but are hamstrung by their financial issues.
  • The Royals have signed seven of their draft picks, according to a team press release.  The highest of these picks is right-hander Eric Cantrell, taken in the seventh round.
  • Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Tribune reports that the White Sox have signed third-round compensation pick Thomas Royse, a right-handed starter from of the University of Louisville.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com tweets a scout's take on Seattle's possible trading stance: "Jack Z [Zduriencik] likes draft picks, so if the (trade) offers aren't great, they may not move."
  • Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com looks at how Houston's unwillingness to pay their draft picks has been a factor in the organization's barren minor league system.
  • Tommy Rancel of DRaysBay.com thinks it's too early for Rays fans to panic about Wade Davis.

Twins Looking At Aardsma, Qualls

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The Twins were the subject of several bullpen-related trade rumors back in March when Joe Nathan was lost to Tommy John surgery.  Rather than splurge to acquire a closer like Heath Bell, however, Minnesota instead elevated Jon Rauch to the closer's role and was rewarded with Rauch's 15 saves and 2.62 ERA.

While Rauch has pitched well enough to keep the closer's job, the Twins are still on the lookout for some help at the back of the bullpen.  Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com are reporting that the Twins are "monitoring" several relief options, most notably David Aardsma and Chad Qualls.

Aardsma's ERA stands at 5.21 in 20 appearances this season, though that ERA is inflated by a trio of poor outings.  His peripheral numbers (a 1.21 WHIP, a K/9 rate of 8.5 and a 2.57 K-BB ratio) are solid.  Qualls, meanwhile, has been the key figure in Arizona's bullpen woes this season.  His ERA currently sits at 7.77 following today's disastrous outing against Atlanta — Qualls allowed four ninth-inning runs in just a third of an inning pitched.

With these numbers and familiarity with American League batters, Aardsma has to be considered the stronger option for Minnesota if they were to make a move.  The only point in Qualls' favor is that he's in the last year of his contract, whereas Aardsma is making $2.75MM this season and is under team control through 2012.  The cost-conscious Twins may not like the idea of giving Aardsma an arbitration raise in the winter if he's just going to be a set-up man, though Minnesota could also hold onto him if Rauch struggles or perhaps trade him to another reliever-hungry team in the offseason. 

Qualls is due to earn $4.185MM so he'd cost more in payroll, but the Twins could just let him walk after the season if need be.  Also, Arizona's asking price would certainly be less than what Seattle would want for Aardsma.

Remembering the 1995 Trade Deadline

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It was a grand time for the game of baseball. Plenty of critics, in the wake of the 1994 strike, declared baseball dead. Such declarations now stand in the Hall of Wrong, right between those who said that Mark Twain was dead (the first time) and Graydon Carter's claiming the death of irony.

Things were all turned around on the buyers and sellers front, too. The biggest seller? The New York Mets. Big buyers ranged from Cincinnati to Seattle. Indeed, money can't buy everything. So without further ado, on to the precious trade memories…

  • For the low price of Frankie Rodriguez (not to be confused with K-Rod, of course) and a minor leaguer, the Red Sox acquired Rick Aguilera from the Twins on July 6. Aguilera was effective with the Red Sox, pitching to a 2.67 ERA and saving 20 games.
  • A day later, the Orioles responded, trading Kimera Bartee and Scott Klingenbeck to the Twins for Scott Erickson. The pitcher was no longer in ace form, but Erickson won nine games and pitched to a 3.89 ERA with Baltimore.
  • In the category of you win some, you lose some, the Phillies had a pair of roster moves that were noteworthy. On July 10th, the team released Norm Charlton. Mistake! Charlton went to Seattle, and managed a 1.51 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 47.2 dominant innings. However, on July 13th, the Phillies picked up Sid Fernandez, who had been released by the Orioles. El Sid had something left in the tank, to put it mildly, and he pitched to a 3.34 ERA in 11 starts, with 79 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. 
  • The most ambitious trade of this deadline came on July 21 in an eight-player deal. Cincinnati traded Dave McCarty, Ricky Pickett, John Roper, Deion Sanders and Scott Service to San Francisco in exchange for Dave Burba, Darren Lewis and Mark Portugal. The trade worked out quite well for Cincinnati, with both Burba and Portugal pitching to ERAs under 4.00 while in the starting rotation. Lewis played his customary terrific defense, though his .588 OPS didn't overwhelm. But getting two frontline starting pitchers for a meager haul is a pretty sweet deal in any year.
  • Finally, how did the Mets-as-sellers do? Well, Bobby Bonilla, during his best season at age-32, went to Baltimore on July 28 in exchange for Damon Buford and Alex Ochoa, two outfielders who were never able to crack a starting lineup consistently. Three days later, the Mets sent Bret Saberhagen to Colorado for Juan Acevedo and Arnold Gooch. Neither pitcher had much success; Gooch failed to reach the major leagues and Saberhagen pitched to just a 6.28 ERA in 1995, then missed all of 1996 due to injury. In other words: nobody in this trade managed to have nearly the career of a Dave Burba.

Stark On Orioles, Lee, Padres, Stanton, Angels

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Major league executives told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark which starters they would most want to have for the next ten years. Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum didn't make the cut, but Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, David Price, Brett Anderson and Jon Lester did. Here are Stark's latest rumors, as the trade market starts taking shape:

  • Two teams say that the Orioles would listen on Kevin Millwood right now.
  • A rival executive says the Orioles are "sniffing around for a shortstop." Stark hears rumors that they have interest in Twins prospect Trevor Plouffe. 
  • The Mariners won't seriously consider trading Cliff Lee before they're sure they can't salvage their season.
  • There's increasing pessimism that the Astros will be able to obtain salary relief and prospects for Roy Oswalt.
  • Teams are giving up on acquiring Adrian Gonzalez this summer, since the Padres continue to win.
  • Two officials believe Heath Bell could be traded even if the Padres stay in contention. Check out this post from earlier in the week for more on Bell's trade value.
  • Tom Gorzelanny could be on the market in a couple weeks when John Grabow comes off the DL.
  • Stark hears that the Marlins will call Mike Stanton up next week. The Marlins are being cautious, since they want to prevent Stanton from obtaining super two status and teams believe the cut-off will be later than ever this year.
  • Stark's sources don't expect the Angels to start searching for a bat to replace Kendry Morales for a few weeks. When they begin looking for offense, they're expected to look for someone who is about to hit free agency or a versatile player who can defend around the diamond. Kendry Morales is under team control through 2013, so Prince Fielder wouldn't be a fit for the Angels.

Danny Valencia Called Up By Minnesota

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With Michael Cuddyer on the bereavement list, the Twins called up top prospect Danny Valencia from Triple-A Rochester.  MLB.com's Kelly Thesier tweets that Valencia will make his major league debut tonight at third base when the Twins play the Mariners. 

A 19th-round pick in the 2006 draft, Valencia has a .298/.353/.469 line in 2005 minor league at-bats, though just a .742 OPS in 483 PA at the Triple-A level.  Baseball America's John Manuel described Valencia as one of the "untouchable" prospects at last year's trade deadline, and the Twins hope the 25-year-old can develop into an everyday third baseman.

Valencia is the third notable Twins prospect to get a cup of coffee with the big club this season, as Trevor Plouffe (their first-round pick in the 2004 amateur draft) and catcher Wilson Ramos ("one of the better trade chips in baseball") made their debuts earlier this season to fill holes in the banged-up Minnesota lineup.  While Ramos was never going to displace Joe Mauer behind the plate and Plouffe hasn't hit well enough in the minors to be considered a blue chipper, every opportunity exists for Valencia to stick around in the majors.  As Manuel noted in his story, "third base has been a black hole" for the Twins since the days of Corey Koskie.  Nick Punto (.574 OPS this season) and Brendan Harris (.478 OPS) could both be easily displaced if Valencia gets off to a hot start.

Odds & Ends: Miner, Gorzelanny, Heyward, Twins

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Links for Wednesday, as the lights go out at Wrigley Field…

  • Tigers pitcher Zach Miner will undergo Tommy John surgery, writes MLB.com's Jason Beck.
  • The Tigers are better-known for developing power arms, but as Beck shows, the Tigers have successfully developed some position players, too.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says the Cubs don't appear to be involved in serious talks to trade Tom Gorzelanny, but wonders if clubs like the Tigers and Rangers could inquire if the lefty becomes available.
  • You knew Jason Heyward was good, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs puts the outfielder's amazing start in perspective, saying he's on his way to "one of the great rookie seasons of all time."
  • Meanwhile, Cameron wonders if the Rays should deal B.J. Upton to a team looking to capitalize on talent. It would save the Rays money and improve their chances of keeping Carl Crawford around.
  • One AL assistant GM told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that he doesn't expect the Twins to trade for a reliever this summer.
  • 2010 draft prospect and Arlington native Michael Choice tells Chris Cox of MLB.com that it would be "a dream come true" to play for the Rangers, who pick 15th this year. Jonathan Mayo, Frankie Piliere and Keith Law all predicted Choice would be selected before that in their most recent mock drafts.

Roy Oswalt Rumors: Tuesday

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9:00pm: The Astros are not looking to trade Oswalt now, according to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The Dodgers are not in active talks to trade for the right-hander at this point.

8:15pm: The Rangers are content with their current pitchers and have limited financial flexibility, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. GM Jon Daniels told Sullivan that the club is not looking for pitching – at least for now.

"That could always change," Daniels said. "You've got to be open-minded about adding an impact pitcher."

8:34am: Prepare yourself for a couple months of Roy Oswalt rumors.  Today's batch:

Roy Oswalt Rumors: Sunday

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6:24pm: Nats GM Mike Rizzo will neither confirm or deny the club's interest in Oswalt, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.

Kilgore writes that even if the Nationals are interested, it is unlikely a deal could be struck between the two sides.  First, Washington would have to be willing to part with farmhands that they have worked diligently to stock.  Secondly, they would have to take on Oswalt's hefty contract. 

Finally, Oswalt would have to approve a deal to the nation's capital.  Despite the fact that the Nats appear to be contenders at present, Kilgore wonders how the 32-year-old feels about a club that has lost more than 100 games in back-to-back seasons.

12:58pm: A baseball source tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson that the Nationals are interested in trading for Oswalt.

12:27pm: Roy Oswalt's trade request has inspired plenty of speculation about potential suitors for the right-hander. Here's a roundup of the latest discussion about possible trade partners for the Astros:

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