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Twins Rumors: Payroll, Iwakuma, Pavano

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The Twins spent about $101MM on payroll in their first season at Target Field. Now that Joe Mauer's $184MM extension is about to kick in, the team will likely be even more expensive in 2011. Here are the details on Minnesota's offseason plans:

Odds & Ends: Francoeur, Theriot, Braves, Hacker

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Links for Tuesday, as the American League Gold Glove winners are announced…

Washburn Undecided About 2011

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Veteran lefty Jarrod Washburn sat out the 2010 season, but he told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports he's undecided on 2011.  Noting that he's been contacted by a couple of teams this week, Washburn explained, "I will not say I am 100 percent retired because a great opportunity might present itself."

Morosi adds that a great opportunity translates as close to Washburn's Wisconsin home.  The Brewers or Twins might be his top choices, and both teams should be in the hunt for starting pitching.  One point in Milwaukee's favor is their hiring of Ron Roenicke, who worked with Washburn during his Angels days.

Washburn, 36, is a candidate to provide 175 innings of 4.50 ball in 2011.  His asking price is an unknown; he's represented by Scott Boras. 

Odds & Ends: Crawford, Thome, Rowand, Greinke

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On this date in 1974, the Braves traded Hank Aaron to the Brewers for Dave May. Today, the Braves made some less memorable moves. Here are the day's links…

Amateur Signing Bonuses: Twins

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Time to take our amateur signing bonus series to the Land of 10,000 Lakes…

  1. Joe Mauer, $5.15MM (2001)
  2. Miguel Sano, $3.15MM (2009)
  3. B.J. Garbe, $2.75MM (1999)
  4. Adam Johnson, $2.5MM (2000)
  5. Ryan Mills, $2MM (1998)

It's funny looking back at it now, but the Mauer vs. Mark Prior debate was huge back before the 2001 draft. Both were legitimate first overall talents, but Prior was considered more of a sure thing and certainly closer to the big leagues. The Twins opted for the hometown kid with that first pick, and all he's done is develop into one of the two or three best players on the planet. Mauer debuted in 2004 as a 21-year-old and hit .308/.369/.570 in 122 plate appearances, though knee issues dampened his coming out party. He returned the next year fully healthy and hasn't stopped hitting since. Minnesota's franchise player is a .327/.407/.481 career hitter with four All Star appearances, three batting titles, and an MVP to credit. I'd say they got their $5.15MM worth.

The Twins faced heavy competition for Sano last year, most notably from the Pirates, but they were able to sign him to that huge bonus in December. He turned just 17 this past May, hitting .307/.379/.491 in 241 rookie ball plate appearances this season, his pro debut.

Garbe, Johnson, and Mills were all high-priced busts. Garbe, the fifth overall pick in '99, hit just .231/.314/.311 in more than five-plus seasons in the Twins' farm system, eventually getting traded to the Mariners for Pat Borders in August 2004. He's been out of baseball since 2006. Johnson was the second overall pick in '00 and managed to reach the big leagues with Minnesota for all of 26.1 innings (10.25 ERA) in 2001 and 2003. His minor league career consists of a 5.02 ERA in 747.1 innings, and he wound up in an independent league after the Twins released him in January 2005. Mills, taken sixth overall in '98, posted a 5.79 ERA in 480.1 minor league innings and never reached the big leagues. He's been out of baseball since becoming a minor league free agent after the 2004 season.

Twins Pick Up Kubel’s Option, Decline Punto’s

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The Twins exercised Jason Kubel's $5.25MM option for 2011 and turned down Nick Punto's $5MM option, according to MLB.com's Kelly Thesier (on Twitter).

Kubel posted a .249/.323/.427 line this year and his lowest OPS since 2006. He hit 21 homers, spending most of his time at right field and DH. The 28-year-old would have been a Type A free agent, so Minnesota could have obtained draft picks if Kubel had turned down arbitration to sign elsewhere. As we predicted in August, the Twins chose to retain Kubel for another season.

Punto, 33 next month, batted .238/.313/.302 in 288 plate appearances and played short, second and third. As Thesier pointed out earlier this month, the Twins were not expected to pick up Punto's option. He is not a ranked free agent, so the Twins won't get compensation picks if they offer arbitration and he signs elsewhere. An offer of arbitration for Punto seems extremely unlikely. 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Rauch

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Twins fans feared the worst when Joe Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery last spring, but Jon Rauch's ability to close games was a big reason why Minnesota won the AL Central.  Though Rauch lost the closing role to Matt Capps in July, the 6'11" right-hander still went 21-for-25 in save opportunities, posted a 3.12 ERA in 59 appearances and had an impressive 3.29 K/BB ratio.

Let's see how Rauch stacks up on the free agent market this winter…

The Pros

  • Rauch is a Type B free agent, so a team can sign him without losing a compensatory draft pick.
  • Rauch might be eager to get away from Target Field.  His ERA in 30 home games last season was 4.45, compared to just a 1.84 ERA in 29 road games.
  • He's pretty solid against hitters on both sides of the plate.  He's obviously better against right-handed hitters (holding them to a .238/.280/.372 career slash line) but Rauch has also done well against left-handed bats — .255/.328/.417.

The Cons

  • Rauch lost the stopper's job both last year and in Arizona in 2009.  Teams looking for a closer could be worried by the fact that Rauch has yet to show he can handle the job for a full season.
  • Rauch tends to make things interesting at the end of games.  His H/9 rate was a career-high 9.5 last season.
  • After averaging 80.5 appearances per season from 2006 to 2009, Rauch pitched in just 59 games last year due to a variety of minor injuries.  He turned 32 last month.

The Verdict

Rauch is more likely to be signed as a set-up man than as a closer, and his solid career track record makes him a candidate for a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of two years and $7MM.  Teams looking for closing help this winter include the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Angels and Rays, so Rauch could get a look from those clubs to be at least part of a closing committee.  Rauch could also be signed by a team like Atlanta or Washington as an experienced backup option should their young closers (Jonny Venters and Drew Storen, respectively) falter.   

It's possible the Twins offer Rauch salary arbitration.  He'll get a raise from his $2.9MM salary last season, but if he can't find more than that on the open market, he could accept arbitration and then work out a contract to stay in the Twin Cities.  The Twins would be giving up the sandwich pick they'd receive if Rauch signed elsewhere, but with so many free agent relievers in their bullpen, Minnesota will still be in line for other compensation picks.  The Twins themselves are one of the clubs looking for closing depth if Nathan isn't fully recovered or back in form after his surgery.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes

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Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers.  He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency.  Let's assess his position.

The Pros

  • Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings.  Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
  • Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
  • He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost.  Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.

The Cons

  • Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
  • He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
  • He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
  • Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
  • He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
  • Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.

The Verdict

Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies.  He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.

Odds & Ends: Duncan, Mets, Dodgers, Baylor

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Four years ago today, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic.  He became the team's starting shortstop in May at the age of 20, debuting with a .300/.347/.408 performance.  Links for Monday:

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