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Johan Santana Rumors

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman and the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III recently weighed in on the Johan Santana situation.

  • Neal says the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees have all had recent discussions with the Twins about Santana. He says the Twins have "stepped up their efforts" to make a deal before Spring Training.
  • Heyman believes the Mets have taken the lead.  He thinks it would take five or more prospects, and submission by the Red Sox and Yankees. 
  • Heyman says the Twins may prefer Carlos Gomez over Fernando Martinez.  That would be good for the Mets, who do not want to part with Martinez.

Odds and Ends: Cano, Colon, Lowry

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Here are some links I’ve rounded up this morning.

  • In theory, Robinson Cano would be open to a long-term deal. River Ave. Blues recently took a look at how historically good Cano has been so far, and suggest the Yankees lowballed him with their arbitration submission.
  • Baseball Prospectus’ Derek Jacques saw Bartolo Colon pitch in the Dominican League Finals, and lends his evaluation.  Colon was not impressive, but not terrible.  It doesn’t seem like he will get the two-year deal he wants.
  • The Brewers will bring Abraham Nunez to camp.  Versatile, but a drain on offense.
  • Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune notes that the White Sox aren’t done yet.  The Joe Crede situation should linger into spring.  Gonzales also mentions that the Giants are "listening to offers for Noah Lowry."
  • A factual look at whether Omar Minaya really stockpiles Latin American players.
  • The Astros can’t settle their gaps with Mark Loretta or Jose Valverde, and Ed Wade expects the team to go to its first arbitration hearings in over a decade.  Wade has set a deadline of this afternoon and will go to hearings otherwise.  Loretta asking for $4.9MM seems particularly off.
  • Matthew Cerrone takes an educated guess on the current Johan Santana situation.
  • Some interesting quotes from XM Radio from Michael Cuddyer and Scott Boras, separately.

Johan Santana Rumors

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I know some of you crave daily Johan Santana updates…today we’ve got a blurb from Charley Walters:

The Twins say they’re not panicking while holding out for the best deal for Johan Santana. But word within baseball circles is that offers by the New York Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Boston Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Best bet now for a trade of the two-time Cy Young Award winner appears to be with the New York Mets in a deal that would not include fast-rising hitter Fernando Martinez.

Yikes – from those solid Yankee/Red Sox offers to a Martinez-less Mets package?  If that happens then I would say Bill Smith overplayed his hand.  Kat O’Brien recently talked to Smith, but wasn’t able to get much out of him.  She believes the Yanks, Red Sox, and Mets "all retain some interest."

Odds and Ends: Hinske, Doumit, Colon, Greene

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It’s up to an impressive 5.7 degrees where I am, but I still don’t think I’ll be going outside much today.  Hence, some odds and ends.

  • Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald believes Eric Hinske might sign with the Diamondbacks this week.  The 30 year-old former ROY has a career line of .255/.336/.434, with much better work against righties.
  • John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus says the Red Sox are interested in the Pirates’ Ryan Doumit.  However Perrotto says the Bucs are reluctant to trade the versatile Doumit, who turns 27 in April.  Only past Doumit rumor I can find was from Will Carroll in May of ’06, saying he and Oliver Perez were being dangled to the Phillies.
  • Perrotto believes the Royals could sign Bartolo Colon if he’ll take a one-year deal; that may be true for several clubs.  Paul Hoynes reports that the Indians watched Colon pitch, but weren’t impressed with his sub-90 velocity.  Hoynes says Kris Benson will have another throwing session and the Tribe will be in attendance.
  • According to Marc Topkin, the Rays are talking with lefty reliever Trever Miller.  The two sides haven’t agreed on the term yet.
  • Padres GM Kevin Towers commented about the team’s rejected long-term overtures toward shortstop Khalil Greene.  Towers brought a three or four year proposal to Greene but does not expect anything to get done.  He stated Greene’s possible desire to be on the East Coast as a factor.
  • Vince Gennaro does an economic analysis of the Johan Santana rumors, indicating that the acquisition makes the most sense for the Mets.

Multiyear Contract Discussions: Teixeira, Tulowitzki, Morneau

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With today’s deadline for arbitration-eligible players, it only makes sense that all sorts of long-term contract discussions are going on.  Even players and teams who do agree to one-year deals for ’08 may find themselves with groundwork laid for bigger deals.

  • That could be the case with Mark Teixeira.  His agent, Scott Boras, had "quite a bit of dialogue" with Frank Wren about an extension prior to Tex signing for one year and $12.5MM.  I recently guessed the Braves have a 10% chance of getting this done. 
  • The Rockies have had "intense, serious dialogue" with Troy Tulowitzki’s agent about a long-term deal.  Tulo isn’t arbitration-eligible yet though, so Dan O’Dowd may choose to resolve his arb cases and get back to his shortstop afterwards.  Tulowitski could sign a six-year, $30MM deal, a record for a player with his service time.
  • Justin Morneau signed for one year and $7.4MM.  LEN3 says the Twins may contact his agent about a multiyear deal but haven’t yet.

Fernando Martinez May Be Key To Santana Deal

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Nothing groundbreaking here, but Ken Davidoff spoke to "an industry offical familiar with Minnesota’s trade discussions," who believes the inclusion of young outfielder Fernando Martinez could close the Johan Santana deal for the Mets.  Davidoff notes that some combination of Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey would have to be in there too.  Perhaps the sides will ultimately agree on Martinez and all the rest except for Gomez.

The Yankees and Red Sox remain in the mix, though the Yanks seem ready to move on.

Olney’s Latest: Barrett, Cameron, Santana

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Let’s take a run through Buster Olney’s blog today.

  • Olney chatted with Kevin Towers recently.  One learning: the Padres plan on keeping Michael Barrett.  Never hurts to have a little catching depth.
  • The Padres might’ve given Mike Cameron a two-year deal worth at least $17MM, more than he received from the Brewers.  Did Cameron want out of San Diego, or did his agent make a miscalculation of the market?
  • Olney talked to a talent evaluator who wondered whether the Twins might be concerned about Johan Santana’s health.  Reduced late-season velocity and less use of his slider could be signs.

Twins Intrigued With Mets’ Johan Offer?

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Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has a new article up focused on how the ultimate package for Johan Santana may not be fan-pleasing.  That’s because the Twins "seem most intrigued" with the Mets’ offer, which doesn’t include household names.  They’re proposing some combination of Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.  Seems it would be one of the outfielders plus the three pitchers.

Christensen notes the Chuck Knoblauch and A.J. Pierzynski trades as examples of deals that were derided in Minnesota at the time but ended up favoring the Twins.  However I do believe fans are better equipped to evaluate trades these days, the way prospects are followed.  (An aside – I still think we all would’ve praised Brian Sabean at the time of the Pierzynski/Liriano/Bonser/Nathan deal.)

In other Johan news, Sid Hartman has some fresh Hank quotes if you’re interested.

Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More

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Time for this week’s mailbag.  You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.

Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan

Funny you ask this.  I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it."  So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.

Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel

I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine.  I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative?  I don’t like the Livan idea.  I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent.  Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off.  There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.

Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant

The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board.  If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.

What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew

I’ll put it at a 10% chance.  This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras.  He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.

When, just when will this Santana situation be over?!  It’s just killing me! – Dan

We all feel your pain Dan.  Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this.  I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now.  Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.

Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin

C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you.  If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships.  Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy.  So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.

Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver

The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official.  However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post.  The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it.  It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer.  Those reporters altered history.

What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus?  Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler

We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May.  There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions.  MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training.  I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.

Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew

Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season.  The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense.  If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.

Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve

Thankfully I did.  I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites.  Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.

Rockies Inquired On Santana

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Courtesy of Ken Rosenthal, we knew on December 19th that the Rockies had inquired on Dan Haren.  On Monday Dave Krieger of the Rocky Mountain News also quoted Rockies’ GM Dan O’Dowd as saying "We stuck our nose in on the Santana thing." (Hat tip to Aaron Gleeman for the link).

O’Dowd didn’t get far trying to acquire Johan Santana, because he prefers to play on the East Coast.  Perhaps a deal involving some combination of Franklin Morales, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart, and Dexter Fowler would’ve intrigued the Twins otherwise?  Here’s a look at an MLB.com Top 50 Prospects list compiled with votes from 20 members of the scouting community.  Morales ranks just a few spots below Jacoby Ellsbury.

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