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Rosenthal’s Latest

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The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken.  Let’s review.

  • As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn.  We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him.  Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move.  The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur.  The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point.  And the Twins?  They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
  • With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him.  Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return.  Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem.  A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
  • Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne’s limited no-trade protection.  Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams.  The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors.  Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline.  Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
  • The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher.  Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency.  The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both.  I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge.  Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need. 
  • Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena?  Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club.  I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
  • Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
  • The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.

Twins May Target Wigginton

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According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins may target Ty Wigginton of the Devil Rays as a third baseman and DH with some power.  Wigginton makes less than $3MM and offers right-handed pop.  The Twins are tenth in the league with a .393 SLG.  They’re even worse against southpaws, and Wigginton can definitely handle lefties.

Twins’ 3Bs have hit .236/.319/.336, and the team’s DHs have hit .256/.335/.365.  These areas should both be fairly easy deadline upgrades.  Minnesota is seven games out in the AL Central and 5.5 games out of the wild card.

Other potential cheap sources of DH power: Dmitri Young, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Sweeney.

Hunter A Fit With Rangers

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The Rangers need a long-term center fielder, and they play 45 minutes from Torii Hunter’s hometown.  Seems like a perfect fit, right?

Maybe.  But according to Hunter yesterday, his heart still lies in Minnesota.  It seems that if the Twins can muster even a fairly competitive long-term offer for him, he’ll stay.  Hunter’s next deal will cover his age 32-35 seasons, at the least.  $13MM annually might be considered a discount.  Will the Twins at least offer Hunter a Johnny Damon contract?  Even if they did, he would have to turn a blind eye to more lucrative offers.  I think some team would give him a fifth year, and $15MM a year seems plenty possible following a career season.

The Rangers could certainly use Hunter in the lineup, especially if they trade Mark Teixeira for pitching (as has been speculated).  The team entered the season with a $71MM payroll, down from a high of $105MM in 2002.  Money coming off the books in ’08: Gagne ($6MM+), Lofton ($6MM), Wilkerson ($4.35MM), Sosa (about $2.4MM), and Mahay ($1.2MM).  That’s about $20MM, plus a random Jerry Hairston here and there.  On the other hand, some players have escalating salaries for ’08: Millwood ($1MM), Padilla ($2MM), Teixeira ($2.6MM), Blalock ($1.2MM), plus various other minor increases and arb-eligible guys.  Still, the Rangers should clear about $13MM even if they keep Teixeira, meaning there is definitely room for Hunter in the payroll.

I should add that if Alex Rodriguez becomes a free agent, that’s $27MM saved for Texas.

Healey’s Latest

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Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball has some new rumors for us this morning.

  • There’s talk that if the Twins are more than five games out at the trading deadline, they’ll start dealing veterans.  An obvious one is Luis Castillo, earning $5.75MM this season.  He has long been connected to the Mets.  He almost signed with New York as a free agent and the team has tried trading for him before.  Healey believes Lastings Milledge is too much to give up, so don’t look for a straight up swap of those two.  Though I imagine the Twins would love having Milledge to man center field in 2008.
  • The Reds are ten games under .500 and ten out in the NL Central.  Healey speculates that Adam Dunn, Ryan Freel, and Dave Weathers are the Reds’ most tradeable commodities.  The Reds recently extended Freel through 2009, though – I think they want him around as a fan favorite.  Dunn I can see being moved.  He earns $10.5MM this year with a $13MM club option for ’08.  He’s got an unsurprising line of .263/.366/.538; that’s worth $13 mil these days.  The Dodgers or White Sox seem like good fits.   

More Rosenthal

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Ken Rosenthal’s been a busy man today.  He’s got another column up for FOXSports.com; go read it.  The high-level version:

  • Rosenthal sees the Yankees declining Bobby Abreu’s 2008 option and turning to Melky Cabrera or a big name free agent for right field.  I agree; you can check out my other assessments of 2008 club options here.  Might be time to switch my predictions on Juan Uribe, Jose Guillen, and Paul Byrd.  I can now see Uribe declined and the other two exercised. Byrd has come alive, and Guillen’s strong May has sparked the chance of the Ms taking their $9MM option for ’08.
  • Torii Hunter’s having a well-timed career year, but the Twins can’t trade him unless they’re out of contention.  Tough situation.  The Twins are 7.5 games back in the Central, 7 out of the wild card.  If it’s double digits in July the decision gets easier.
  • It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to trade Scott Rolen right now, based on the factors outlined here.
  • Erick Aybar remains an excellent trading chip for the Angels.  His .600 OPS doesn’t help his value, but it’s pretty much what PECOTA expected.  There’s a small chance Aybar becomes Barry Larkin, but to me he looks like the next Cesar Izturis.

Perrotto’s Latest

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John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors.  Some highlights from his latest column:

  • The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter.  My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon.  Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years.  On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season.  Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though.  Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg’s name in his blog today.
  • Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers.  I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter.  I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years.  Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games.  His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
  • Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers.  The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.   

Torii Hunter At 4/60?

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press believes Torii Hunter will snag a contract in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM after this season, if his strong offensive output continues.  That’s an entirely reasonable estimate and may be low. 

A 32 year-old Johnny Damon received four years and $52MM, but that was two years ago and Hunter plays better defense.  Alfonso Soriano might be a better point of reference at eight years, $136MM.  He turned 31 shortly after he signed; Hunter will be about 32.5.  Soriano was simply an experiment in center, while Hunter is a pro. 

If Hunter is no longer a .480 SLG type guy, but rather a .540 SLG type (admittedly a long shot), his contract could ramp up to $16MM annually over five or even six years.  The only concern is that his newfound power is coming at the expense of walks – Hunter has just three of them so far this year.  It works as long as he’s hitting .330.

With Jacoby Ellsbury coming on strong in the minors, the Red Sox don’t need a huge CF expenditure.  I could see the Orioles, Rangers, or Phillies splurging on Hunter this winter.

Santana Wants 8 Years?

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I am not sure about this rumor, but thought I’d put it out here for debate.

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune writes:

"Before contract talks broke off between Johan Santana and the Twins, baseball’s best pitcher is believed to have had put the team on notice that he wants a contract at least as long as Barry Zito’s eight-year deal with San Francisco."

Rogers does not specifically name a source on that statement, and follows it with Santana’s recent quote about hoping to remain a Twin for life.  I don’t know if the Zito reference is Rogers’ interpretation of Santana’s Minneapolis Tribune quote, or a new piece of information.  I have a feeling Santana might be amenable to a six or seven year contract from the Twins.

As far as the idea of trading Torii Hunter or Santana before they reach free agency, no-trade clauses could complicate matters.  Santana has a full no-trade if he places top three in this year’s Cy Young voting, which seems likely based on the past three seasons.  Hunter can block deals to the Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays this year.  Boston is the one team I could see having a spot for him this summer out of that group.   

Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More

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Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.

  • Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending.  The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter.  I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations.  Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
  • Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka.  In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too.  The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past.  I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
  • The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available.  Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described.  And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today. 
  • Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins.  Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.

Twins Make Weak Offer To Santana

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According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Twins recently offered Johan Santana a two-year extension for $36MM plus a club option for 2011.  I know you have to start somewhere with negotiations, but the Twins could essentially double their offer and it would still be well below market value. 

Heyman mentions that Santana has informed the Twins that he won’t negotiate again until he hits the open market after the 2008 season.  Maybe Santana made that assertion because he felt insulted by the team’s lowball offer.

If the Twins are that far apart from an extension with Santana, they might want to consider trading him sometime between now and July 31st, 2008.  Don’t forget, however, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year and a good shot at one for ’08.

Some have suggested that Santana will become baseball’s first $200MM pitcher; clearly a deal won’t get done with less than $100MM being committed.  People keep reporting that Santana will become a free agent at age 29, which is technically true, but he will be 30 on Opening Day 2009.

UPDATE: Not so fast, said Santana today.  He says he hasn’t received an offer from the Twins, but the sooner the better if the Twins want to break their "no negotiations in-season policy."  A report four days ago indicated the Twins will ignore that policy for Santana.

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