Rays’ Kazmir May Be Available
The week in hot stove kicks off with a bang: Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a source saying the Devil Rays might listen to offers for ace lefty Scott Kazmir. Kazmir turns 24 in January and carries a 3.64 career ERA despite pitching in the AL East. He’s been particularly tough on the Red Sox (2.66 ERA in 101 innings). You have to think that if the Yankees are entertaining making an offer for Johan Santana, they’d consider Kazmir as well if the Rays would deal within the division.
Sherman notes that Kazmir is under contract for three years as opposed to just one for Santana, which could equate the two pitchers in the marketplace. Erik Bedard, under control for two years, has to be in that group of elite, possibly available southpaws as well. Sherman believes the Rays would seek "multiple high-end pitchers" for Kazmir, who is entering arbitration for the first time this winter. The Yankees could offer a package starting with Phil Hughes, but the Mets don’t seem to have the goods. It would take a pitcher of that nature – Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Clay Buchholz. Otherwise, why would the Rays consider it?
Sherman also echoes the surprising notion that Tim Lincecum could be had for the right bat. He speculates that the Giants could pursue Carl Crawford or Delmon Young as the return. Hey, our Delmon speculation is catching on!
Sherman indicates that the Twins may be compelled to hold onto Santana, afraid of fan backlash if they also lose Torii Hunter. Meanwhile, another Santana, Ervin, might be had for a bat if the Angels can’t sign Alex Rodriguez. Sherman’s sources say any club in the A-Rod sweepstakes will move slowly in the market because his contract would dictate the team’s available budget.
Also notable from Sherman’s rumor-packed column: teams may wait for the Mitchell Report to come out before engaging in serious talks for Miguel Tejada. I’ve read speculation that MLB could release this report soon as a way of limiting free agent spending. Also, isn’t it about time for Jose Canseco’s next book, which supposedly has "other stuff" on Alex Rodriguez?
Silva Rises To Top Of Free Agent Starter Market
About a year ago, the Twins were seriously debating whether to exercise Carlos Silva‘s $4MM option for 2007. After all, he’d posted a ghastly 5.94 ERA in 180 innings in 2006. His 246 hits allowed was among the highest totals in baseball that year.
What difference a year makes. Silva posted a solid 4.19 ERA in 202 innings, a performance more in line with his career marks. As a result he’s arguably the best available free agent starter this winter and stands to snag a contract of at least four years and $40MM (with no cost in draft picks). La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins want him back, and Bill Smith is already talking about the intangibles the team offers for him. The Twins may balk at even $8MM annually.
Neal notes that the Diamondbacks, Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies had interest in trading for Silva this summer. That pretty well sums it up. We can probably add the Reds to the mix. Looking at Nick Cafardo’s recent summary, the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Cardinals, and Dodgers all seek to add veteran starting pitching. Silva typically ranks in the top 20 for groundball rate, so he may try to avoid stadiums with artificial turf.
Odds and Ends: Cook, Benoit, Griffey, Riske
Some random tidbits that didn’t get their own posts today…
- The Rockies picked up Aaron Cook‘s $4.5MM option as expected. The bigger question is whether they can sign him long-term, maybe for three years. They also passed on LaTroy Hawkins for $3.75MM but may still sign him.
- The Rangers agreed to a two-year contract with reliever Joaquin Benoit for two years and $6MM. He would’ve hit free agency after 2008. Smart move would be to let him rack up 10-15 saves next season and then trade him for something good.
- The Braves aren’t expected to get their next center fielder through free agency, and Terence Moore suggests trading for Ken Griffey Jr. to fill the position. More reasonable targets might be David DeJesus or Coco Crisp.
- The Royals may yet retain David Riske, who wants a multiyear deal and would like to stay. They’ll definitely offer him arbitration, since he’s a Type B free agent. Also, longtime Royal Mike Sweeney might finally play elsewhere.
- Free agent Shawn Chacon is looking to start in 2008, and he’ll make over $4MM.
- Charley Walters says the Twins won’t pursue Barry Bonds. If Bonds is to land in the AL, the Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals, Angels, and A’s may be his only options.
- McCovey Chronicles suggests a Noah Lowry for Bill Hall swap.
Twins Exercise Nathan’s Option
An easy decision for Bill Smith – the Twins exercised Joe Nathan‘s 2008 option for $6MM today. Nathan will earn about half the salary he’s worth, but we haven’t heard any complaints from him.
The two sides have talked on and off about an extension for some time now. I have to think 4/40 would be the bare minimum home team discount Nathan would accept. Spending even that kind of money on a closer doesn’t seem to be the Twins’ style, so maybe they will explore a trade. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Nathan just play out his last season as Torii Hunter did.
Twins Rumors: Hunter, Silva, Slowey
A couple of Minnesota writers offered speculation today on the Twins’ plans. Let’s discuss.
- La Velle E. Neal III expects Torii Hunter to file for free agency today. Meanwhile Ed Thoma sees the White Sox, Rangers, and Cubs as the top contenders.
- Neal likes the idea of trading for Coco Crisp to play center for the Twins. Personally I would search for a more offensive-minded guy, but as Neal says Crisp could work if big improvements are made at 3B and DH. Thoma expects the Twins to fill this void by trading Boof Bonser or Kevin Slowey, with the Mets, Rays, Reds, and D’Backs as possibilities. That seems to imply a deal for Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Rocco Baldelli, Ken Griffey Jr., or Carlos Gonzalez. Actually Griffey seems unlikely…Ryan Freel maybe? You tell me.
- Thoma also predicts that the Twins extend Johan Santana for 5/100.
More on Jason Bay to the Twins
Yesterday, Joe Nathan said his re-signing was contingent on the Twins remaining competitive. Today, Jake at Bucco Blog discusses a rumor to that fact: The Twins’ interest in Jason Bay is real and hinges on whether or not they retain Torii Hunter.
Tim breaks it down here. Hunter wants 5/75. The Twins are offering 3/45. If the they are serious about retaining him and Hunter in fact wants to stay then that discrepancy doesn’t seem insurmountable. However, if Hunter leaves…
Jason Bay had a down year (.248/.328/.420) and yet almost certain to be dealt by new Pirates GM Neil Huntington this winter. Shipping Bay is a launch pad for restructuring the Pirates’ system. Tim notes the viability of a Bay for Matt Garza deal. He’s signed for a mere $5.75MM in ’08 and an only slightly less mere $7.5MM in ’09, so the Twins would have no financial qualms if Hunter walks.
Posted by Nat Boyle
Carlos Silva Wants Four Years
UPDATE, 10-26-07: Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune debunks Walters’ report of the offer. No offer has been made to Silva, though 3/21 sounds like a reasonable starting point. Christensen also has some Torii Hunter tidbits regarding a cryptic quote he made.
FROM 10-24-07:
Charley Walters notes today that the Twins offered Carlos Silva a three-year deal worth slightly more than $7MM per year. That offer attempts to equate Silva with Miguel Batista, Adam Eaton, and Jason Marquis from last year’s free agent starting pitcher class.
However, Silva wants a four-year contract. Rightfully so. Last year Kei Igawa, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, and Jeff Suppan received four years or more. We can toss out the unique situations of Igawa and Dice-K, leaving Lilly, Meche, and Suppan as Silva’s comparables. Silva is younger than any of them and his fine 2007 sets the bar at four years, $40MM. Stretching that to $42-44MM would not be ridiculous. Silva shouldn’t be compared to the three-year group given his age, effectiveness, and health.
Silva’s supposed status as a Type B free agent should make him more attractive as well. Last summer, teams such as the Phillies, Cubs, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets had trade interest in him.
Twins Hot Stove: Hunter, Nathan
It’ll be an interesting offseason for the Twins, who have a new GM and two coveted free agents in Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva. Here’s the latest.
- Charley Walters quotes Hunter as saying he hasn’t had any contract offers from the Twins since the end of the season. In August, the Twins reportedly offered a three-year, $45MM contract to Hunter. They’re apparently open to adding a fourth year, while Hunter would take 5/75 from the Twins. There’s still a chance he’s re-signed, but Hunter says the chances decrease the longer the team waits.
- According to Tom Powers, the Twins have contingency plans in place in the event they can’t sign Hunter or Silva. The 2008 payroll is expected to increase. It stood at $71.4MM on Opening Day ’07. They’ll need to spend at least $4MM extra just from current escalating contracts. Also in Powers’ article, GM Bill Smith notes the team’s continued focus on left-handed hitters who can use a short right field to their advantage.
- Joe Nathan’s $6MM option for ’08 will be picked up, a no-brainer if there ever was one. Nathan and the Twins will discuss a contract extension as well.
Odds and Ends
How about some Odds and Ends to kick off Hump Day?
- Peter Abraham doesn’t think it would make sense for the Twins to acquire Chien-Ming Wang (presumably in a Johan Santana trade). His reasoning: Wang’s sinker would suffer on turf, and his salary is due to climb via arbitration.
- The Indians have decisions due on Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon, Paul Byrd, Joe Borowski, and Aaron Fultz. The first two will probably be gone.
- My projection for Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 is up over at RotoAuthority.
- Say Anything’s new album came out yesterday. Highly recommended.
- We sold our condo! Literally in less than one week after hiring a real estate agent, we had a contract. Maybe they’re not so bad after all.
Santana for Melky, Hughes, and Prospect?
Tim recently posted about the Yanks inquiries into the Twins organization for Johan Santana. Peter Abraham shares what he’s heard of the rumors for the lefty ace.
Melky Cabrera would give Minnesota a center fielder to replace Torii Hunter if he bolts. The Yankees could then offer the Twins Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy along with a second prospect.
If Melky and Kennedy plus a prospect can land Santana, I can’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t do that, even if only for the opportunity to get a leg up on signing baseball’s best pitcher to a long term deal. But I would assume it would take a lot more. Lots of names are being tossed around along with Philip Hughes, particularly Robinson Cano, names that are most likely the premium the Twins would demand and perhaps a deal-breaker for the Yankees.
Posted by Nat Boyle