Poll: Which Team Will Win The Rights To Darvish?
MLB teams have less than 24 hours to submit bids for Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish, who's available via the posting system. The Nationals, Yankees, A's, Rangers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have been linked to Darvish this month and other interested clubs may be lurking. MLB agents told MLBTR that they expect Darvish to require a financial commitment in excess of $100MM, including the posting fee and contract.
Many teams could use Darvish atop their respective rotations, but which one will win the bidding for him? By the way, if you're unsure, you're in good company — MLB teams don't know the answer to this question, either.
Which team will win the rights to Yu Darvish?
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Yankees 27% (7,531)
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Blue Jays 18% (5,166)
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Rangers 15% (4,227)
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Other 12% (3,417)
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Red Sox 9% (2,638)
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Mariners 9% (2,475)
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Nationals 8% (2,196)
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Athletics 2% (497)
Total votes: 28,147
Poll: Where Will Prince Fielder Sign?
With Albert Pujols now off the market, Prince Fielder is the biggest free agent still available. It's been a hard market to gauge for Fielder — a quick look at the big man's MLBTR page shows several teams with an interest, but seemingly just as many posts arguing why those same teams are seemingly shying away from giving Fielder the eight- or nine-year, $200MM contract he and Scott Boras are trying to find.
Boras' recent statements about his client are, unsurprisingly, a best-case scenario about Fielder's ability and what he can bring to a new team, as MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith observed. Is there a team willing to look past Fielder's weight, defensive shortcomings and likelihood of a decline in the latter years of a long-term contract and instead focus on the fact that he's one of the game's very best sluggers? Where do you think Fielder will play in 2012?
Where Will Prince Fielder Sign?
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Chicago Cubs 24% (9,199)
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Seattle Mariners 14% (5,289)
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Texas Rangers 11% (4,269)
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Toronto Blue Jays 10% (3,904)
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St. Louis Cardinals 9% (3,634)
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Milwaukee Brewers 7% (2,804)
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Miami Marlins 7% (2,700)
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Washington Nationals 6% (2,196)
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Baltimore Orioles 5% (1,836)
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Los Angeles Dodgers 4% (1,544)
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Other 4% (1,373)
Total votes: 38,748
Poll: Next Big Name Free Agent To Sign
Two big name free agents came off the board within the first three weeks of the offseason, as CC Sabathia signed an extension with the Yankees and Jonathan Papelbon joined the Phillies. The two power-hitting first baseman are still on the market (Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder), as are the high-end shortstops (Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes) and left-handed starters (Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson). Looking for pure offense? There’s also Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz.
The Thanksgiving weekend has traditionally been a slow few days for the baseball hot stove, but think of it as the calm before the storm. The winter meetings are just over a week away, and clubs want to start patching the major holes on their rosters before the calendar flips to January. A full list of unsigned free agents can be found with our Free Agent Tracker, but only a select few qualify as big names. Which of those guys do you think will be the next to sign?
Which big name free agent will be the next to sign?
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Mark Buehrle 21% (4,023)
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David Ortiz 17% (3,311)
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C.J. Wilson 16% (3,145)
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Jose Reyes 15% (2,803)
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Albert Pujols 11% (2,168)
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Jimmy Rollins 10% (1,857)
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Carlos Beltran 7% (1,252)
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Prince Fielder 3% (638)
Total votes: 19,197
Poll: Who Will Be The Next Red Sox Manager?
Had the Red Sox offered Dale Sveum a managerial post before the Cubs did, one wonders if Sveum would've returned to Fenway Park rather than taking the Chicago job. Though Boston's list of candidates seems to be gradually decreasing, the recent inclusion of Bobby Valentine into the mix has created questions about if Valentine really is "the sudden favorite" or if it means the Red Sox are still expanding their search. Valentine's emergence and the fact that the Sox were trying to get permission from the Blue Jays to make an offer to John Farrell would seem to hint that they're not satisfied with the current short list.
Indians bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr. and Phillies third base coach Pete Mackanin have been dropped from consideration. As it stands now, Boston is looking at Valentine, Tigers third base coach Gene Lamont (who will be interviewing for the second time within the next few days) and Jays first base coach (and former Red Sox Triple-A manager) Torey Lovullo. Will one of this trio be Terry Francona's successor, or will someone else emerge to take the job?
Who Will Be The Next Red Sox Manager?
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Bobby Valentine 71% (10,397)
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Gene Lamont 12% (1,769)
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Other 10% (1,472)
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Torey Lovullo 6% (906)
Total votes: 14,544
Poll: Which Team Will Sign C.J. Wilson?
At the beginning of the offseason, C.J. Wilson said there was a "great chance" that he would re-sign in Texas. Much has changed in the ensuing weeks. Wilson has drawn interest from a third of MLB teams and the Rangers have decided to shift Neftali Feliz to the rotation. Texas' need for starting pitching has diminished since the offseason began, so the Rangers may balk at Wilson's reported asking price of $120MM.
But some team will happily sign Wilson, even if the Rangers don't. Who will it be…
Which team will sign C.J. Wilson?
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Angels 24% (4,960)
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Yankees 23% (4,779)
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Nationals 11% (2,143)
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Red Sox 10% (2,023)
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Rangers 10% (1,993)
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Blue Jays 6% (1,147)
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Marlins 5% (1,038)
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Phillies 5% (961)
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Other 4% (913)
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Royals 2% (400)
Total votes: 20,357
How Much Will Jose Reyes Get?
In September, I named Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, C.C. Sabathia as locks for $100MM+, and Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Yu Darvish as candidates. The majority of MLBTR readers polled (44%) thought only those three locks would receive $100MM+. Less than 5% of you thought all six would.
With word today that the Marlins' opening bid for Reyes was $90MM over six years, $100MM+ seems more plausible for the shortstop. Let's see what the MLBTR electorate is thinking.
Jose Reyes will sign for...
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$101-110MM 38% (4,584)
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$90-100MM 37% (4,467)
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$111-120MM 15% (1,771)
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$121-130MM 5% (609)
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More than $150MM 2% (270)
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$131-140MM 2% (201)
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$141-150MM 1% (135)
Total votes: 12,037
Non-Tender Candidate: Joe Saunders
Diamondbacks lefty Joe Saunders is a non-tender candidate, based on comments GM Kevin Towers made to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Towers explained his thought process toward the 30-year-old:
"He certainly logs innings, which is good. A veteran with experience. A good guy. Fits in well with our club. We like him. A deciding factor will be how much confidence do we have with the younger players in our system."
Every rotation needs innings guys, and this year Saunders tallied 215 including a playoff start. Throw in a 3.69 ERA and how could the D'Backs be thinking about cutting Saunders for no return?
First there's the price tag, which we project at a hefty $8.7MM. That'd represent a $3.2MM raise as Saunders enters his last season before free agency. Then there's that ERA, which doesn't seem representative of Saunders' skills. His SIERAs have consistently been in the 4.70 range. Saunders is a hittable, low-strikeout pitcher who can be prone to the longball. Finally there's Arizona's depth; they might have young starters who can provide similar performance for the league minimum, if not the innings.
Trading or non-tendering Saunders would greatly add to the D'Backs' payroll flexibility, though they don't have huge needs. Would at least one team feel that Saunders is worth $8-9MM on a one-year deal, and also give up a minor leaguer for him? I find it unlikely. Saunders is similar to a healthy Jon Garland, and the open market repeatedly valued Garland close to $5MM. Only four free agents reached 200 innings this year, and C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, and Hiroki Kuroda will either be expensive or picky about where they sign. However, innings alone don't get a free agent an $8MM+ payday, as we saw with Garland and Rodrigo Lopez last year. Let's hear your thoughts on Saunders in the poll below.
Will Joe Saunders be tendered a contract for 2012?
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No 51% (1,570)
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Yes 49% (1,537)
Total votes: 3,107
Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell
Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell. Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons. Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.
In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates. He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty. He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease. No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.
Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September. He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities. Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer. Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways. It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years. Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.
For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market. That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign. For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration. So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not. Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell?
Bigger contract: Ryan Madson or Heath Bell?
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Heath Bell 56% (3,966)
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Ryan Madson 44% (3,086)
Total votes: 7,052
Poll: Jorge Posada’s Future
The Yankees season came to an end on Thursday night, and along with it may have come the end of Jorge Posada‘s career. Posada’s four-year, $52.4MM contract expires after the season, and so far the only team he’s ever played for has shown little interest in re-signing him.
Although he hit a career worst .235/.315/.398 with 14 homers in 2011, Posada was the team’s best hitter in the postseason, when he picked up six hits and four walks in the five games against the Tigers (.429/.570/571). He was in the lineup all five games because Detroit used four right-handed starters, and the switch-hitter actually handled righties very well this year (.269/.348/.466). It was lefties that gave him trouble (.092/.169/.108).
Despite seeing his playing time dwindle throughout the summer, Posada said in August that he wants to keep playing beyond this year. The Yankees used him almost exclusively at DH this summer, in part because his defensive skills behind the plate have eroded, but also because of long-term concerns about head injuries. Posada did appear in 14 games at first base in 2011 (eleven starts).
As always, the free agent market is flooded with one-dimensional DH types. Posada’s pedigree is on par with anyone’s, but teams have been shying away from overpaying for name value in recent years. His market may not be as robust as he may like, and may even be non-existent.
What will Jorge Posada do this offseason?
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Retire. 67% (10,083)
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Sign with another team. 24% (3,535)
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Re-sign with the Yankees. 9% (1,344)
Total votes: 14,962
Poll: How Much Will C.C. Sabathia Get?
The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years. Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wonders if this will result in the Yankees making another Alex Rodriguez-like overpay, committing at least $125MM over five years in total.
On the high end, though, Sabathia could attempt to top the guarantee he received three years ago: $161MM over seven years. Since that offseason, Sabathia has added three 230+ inning seasons to his resume, never posting an ERA over 3.37 in a season. He's still only 31 years old. Last winter Cliff Lee was 32 upon signing a five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies. At the time, we heard that Lee turned down offers guaranteeing $148MM over seven years from the Yankees and $138MM over six years (including heavy deferrals) from the Rangers.
There's more money in the game than there was three years ago, and Sabathia's resume is at least as strong as Lee's was. Sabathia won't be able to match the 2.13 postseason ERA Lee carried into that offseason, but with a 3.47 mark in ten Yankees postseason starts C.C. hasn't been bad. Sabathia's postseason work outside of '09 has been subpar, but I'm not sure that will affect the free agent bidding. I see Sabathia's ceiling as Lee's $24MM salary over another seven-year term, which would be a new record for a pitcher at $168MM. As with Lee, that seventh year will probably be a sticking point for all involved teams. Let's hear what you think about the total dollars in today's poll.
C.C. Sabathia's new contract will be worth...
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$121-130MM 18% (1,448)
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$141-150MM 14% (1,125)
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Over $170MM 14% (1,120)
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$131-140MM 12% (980)
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$151-160MM 12% (926)
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$100-110MM 11% (902)
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$161-170MM 10% (780)
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$111-$120MM 9% (722)
Total votes: 8,003