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Poll: Top Prospects For Rental Players

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No general manager enjoys trading highly-regarded prospects away. But until this year, GMs have been able to trade elite prospects for players on the brink of free agency with the expectation of obtaining two compensatory draft picks for the loss of the Major League player. It was unpleasant to trade top prospects away, but the draft picks helped replenish teams' minor league systems.

This year, the rules have changed, and teams can no longer obtain draft pick compensation for players acquired midseason. The change in rules, in effect for the first time under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, creates a dilemma for baseball's GMs: is it worth trading a top prospect for a player nearing free agency when the possibility of obtaining draft pick compensation no longer exists?

It's not hard to see why some teams will refuse to trade top prospects for 'rental' players. In the view of many, the short-term gain wouldn't be substantial enough to overcome the loss of a player who could make an extended impact at the MLB level while earning a relatively modest salary.

But how else will a team obtain a star MLB player such as Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke? Surely second-rate prospects and salary relief won't be enough. And it wouldn't be the first time teams have traded elite prospects without the possibility of obtaining draft pick compensation. The Giants parted with Zack Wheeler last summer in the trade that sent Carlos Beltran to San Francisco (the Beltran-Wheeler swap isn't a perfect comparison, but it shows that some teams are willing to sacrifice top prospects for short-term upgrades).

So, if you were a general manager, would you go all-in despite the change in rules or hold onto your prospects?

Poll: Will The Phillies Extend Cole Hamels?

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The Phillies are reportedly preparing a large extension offer for 28-year-old southpaw Cole Hamels, who shut down the Rockies today at Coors Field in a well-scouted game.  We've heard Hamels expects to be paid as an elite pitcher, so his next contract is surely headed north of $100MM.  In recent months Matt Cain and C.C. Sabathia both chose extensions over the open market, signing five-year contracts worth $112.5MM and $122MM in new money, respectively.

The Cain and Sabathia contracts include reasonable sixth-year vesting options, but that fully guaranteed sixth year is probably what both pitchers sacrificed by signing prior to full-blown free agency bidding wars.  The Phillies already have one starting pitcher megadeal on the books, having created the template by signing Cliff Lee for five years and $120MM plus a vesting option in December 2010.  A year and a half later, a Lee/Cain/Sabathia-type contract would be a reasonable offer from the Phillies for Hamels, but he may want more.  The clock is ticking, because if they can't extend Hamels, the Phillies' best path is probably to trade Hamels for a nice bounty this month.  How do you see it playing out?

Poll: Which Addition Makes Most Sense For Pirates?

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The Pirates enter the All-Star break atop the Central Division with a 48-37 record and a legitimate opportunity to remain competitive in the second half. Pittsburgh, led by the MVP-esque play of Andrew McCutchen and strong pitching from its starting rotation, plans to be a buyer with the trade deadline quickly approaching.

As mentioned on MLBTR earlier today, the Pirates have expressed interest in Padres outfielder Carlos Quentin and Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton, among others. MLBTR's Zach Links suggests acquiring Quentin would require Pittsburgh to part with a lesser package of prospects whereas adding Upton to its outfield would demand a series of quality prospects given his ability and that he is under team control through 2015.

The question for the Pirates becomes whether they will take a conservative approach at the trade deadline like last season or go all in by making a splash at the end of the month with a star player like Upton. 

Poll: Trading Carlos Gonzalez

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The Rockies have baseball’s third worst record at 27-44 because they have the game’s least effective pitching staff, a crew that has allowed an average of 5.7 runs per game. Offseason pickup Jeremy Guthrie (6.34 ERA) has been both hurt and ineffective, ditto both Jhoulys Chacin (7.30 ERA) and Juan Nicasio (5.28 ERA). Jamie Moyer’s feel-good story came to an unceremonious end when he was released after pitching to a 5.70 ERA.

Last weekend, Joel Sherman of The New York Post opined that Colorado should consider trading outfielder Carlos Gonzalez for prospects while noting there is no indication that he is actually available. Troy Renck of The Denver Post countered today by saying CarGo is simply too young, too good, and too affordable to trade. The 26-year-old has hit .328/.385/.604 this season and is under contract for approximately $73.5MM through 2017.

Players like Gonzalez don’t getting traded very often, but it’s safe to say he would command a monster package. The number of teams that both have a need in the outfield as well as the young players to swing a deal is limited, but the Rockies will surely find suitors if they put one of their two superstar hitters on the market.

Poll: What’s Next For Jamie Moyer?

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Jamie Moyer opened the season as a feel-good story following his return from Tommy John surgery at age 49, but he lasted just ten starts with the Rockies before being designated for assignment this afternoon. The veteran southpaw posted a 5.70 ERA in 53 2/3 innings for Colorado.

At his age, it’s easy to assume Moyer will finally hang up the spikes. He’s shown tremendous perseverance by continuing his career after elbow reconstruction though, so it would be an unsafe assumption at best. That said, it takes two to tango. Moyer has to find a club willing to sign him so he can keep playing.

Poll: Mike Napoli’s Next Contract

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The catching market has changed substantially over the last several months. Yadier Molina paved the way with his five-year, $75MM contract, and yesterday Miguel Montero reaped the rewards. He agreed to a five-year, $60MM extension with the Diamondbacks, leaving Mike Napoli as the top catcher on the free agent market after the season.

Napoli, 30, is said to be seeking a deal somewhere between Victor Martinez’s (four years, $52MM) and Molina’s. He’s hitting just .233/.325/.436 in 154 plate appearances this season following last year’s breakout .320/.414/.631 campaign. Furthermore, Napoli has only started behind the plate in 25 of his team’s first 46 games.

Quality catching is very hard to find, which is why Molina and now Montero have cashed in so handsomely. Napoli is next in line for a huge contract despite his slow start to the season.

Poll: Replacing Mariano Rivera

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The Yankees lost Mariano Rivera for the season when he tore his ACL shagging fly balls during batting practice two days ago. He says he will return to pitch next season, though the team still needs to replace him for the remainder of 2012.

Rivera, 42, is the greatest reliever in baseball history and even at his advanced age, the Yankees will be unable to find someone who can match his brilliance. Setup man David Robertson has emerged as one of the game’s best non-closing relievers over the last year, pitching to a 0.92 ERA with 121 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings since the start of last season. He seems like the obvious choice to replace Rivera, at least initially, but he’s not the only option.

Ownership overruled GM Brian Cashman two offseasons ago to sign Rafael Soriano, the former All-Star closer with the Rays who became a setup man in New York. He missed time with an elbow issue last year and has pitched to a 3.72 ERA with 8.2 K/9 in 48 1/3 innings since signing with the Yankees. Although he’s been outpitched by Robertson, the team could prefer his ninth inning experience in Rivera’s stead. His salary ($11MM in 2012) could also be a factor.

Yesterday we heard that the Yankees will not aggressively pursue a reliever, but a trade can never really be ruled out. Closers like Huston Street, Brandon League, Brett Myers, and Jonathan Broxton could be available at the trade deadline, though that is just my speculation.

Poll: The Best Minor League DH Deal

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At least three teams are looking forward to a midseason infusion of offense from a veteran designated hitter. If all goes according to plan this summer, the Indians, Rays and Athletics will each add a DH nearing the end of his career. Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Manny Ramirez agreed to play on minor league deals and Vladimir Guerrero is in line for a similar contract if his workouts impress interested teams.

Teams take on minimal risk with these contracts, but there’s no guarantee that the players can hit enough to earn a 25-man roster spot. Damon, Matsui, Ramirez and Guerrero were once Hall of Fame caliber contributors, but they’re all at least 37 years old now, well into their decline. Which minor league deal will turn out best?

Poll: What’s Next For Bobby Abreu?

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Having lost five in a row and eight of their last ten games, the Angels remade their roster a bit last night by releasing Bobby Abreu and calling up top prospect Mike Trout. Trout will play everyday as the team hopes he injects some life into their season, but Abreu’s situation is a little less rosy.

The 38-year-old outfielder/DH was hitting just .208/.259/.333 in 27 plate appearances before being cut loose. Although his power output has steadily declined with age, Abreu still offers one of the game’s best batting eyes and has stolen at least 20 bases every year since 1998. Abreu also has a track record of durability, having played in no fewer than 140 games every season since breaking into the league full-time. His ability to hit left-handed pitching has disappeared later in his career, and defense was never his strong suit.

The Halos are on the hook for Abreu’s $9MM salary, less the pro-rated portion of the league minimum if another team signs him to a Major League contract. He was vocal about his dislike for his reduced role, and the Angels were “trying feverishly” to trade him at the outset of the season. They appeared to have a taker in the Indians before the deal fell apart. Now that he’s available on the open market for the most minimal of costs, what does the future hold for Abreu?

Poll: Will The Giants Extend Tim Lincecum?

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Last week the Giants announced a five-year extension for Madison Bumgarner that will keep the left-hander in the fold through 2017 and could keep him in place through 2019 with a pair of options.  The deal guarantees the hurler $35MM over five years and sets a record for pitchers with one-plus years of MLB service.  The 22-year-old is now locked up for years to come alongside Matt Cain, but there's still the matter of addressing Tim Lincecum's future.

The two-time Cy Young winner is under team control through 2013 and the two sides haven't made a great deal of progress towards a new deal in recent months.  Some see the long-term contracts for Bumgarner and Cain as preparation for Lincecum's eventual departure.  Others contend that while San Francisco has committed a great deal of money to the two pitchers, it has little bearing on whether the club will iron out a deal with The Freak.  As it stands today, do you see the Giants extending Lincecum?

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