- Good afternoon! Sorry to not open this up for early questions or preview it in this morning’s Opener. We’re all working on slightly different schedules today with Anthony off for a few days — and today, in particular, with Darragh and me recording the podcast this morning — so I wasn’t sure exactly when it’d get underway! We’ll start a bit early and go for an hour or a bit more, as usual.
Guards Ball
- What is the guardians plan at the deadline? Buy, sell some rentals or even controllable relievers, or stand pat?
Steve Adams
- This is a boring part one of the answer, but it’s emblematic of modern baseball in a three Wild Card era: they won’t make that final call anytime soon. Most teams don’t pick a lane until there’s less than a week until the deadline. Cleveland is certainly a team that tends to wait. They’re only a game back in the Wild Card standings, so I don’t think they’re going to engineer a huge sale, barring a total collapse. I could see them listening on Carlos Santana regardless, since they could just plug Manzardo in at 1B.
- I expect that they’ll be open to various situations that’d net them controllable outfielders or starting pitching options. The rotation depth there is not what it once was, and the gears at their pitching factor have slowed a bit recently — in part due to injuries.
Chris Young
- I’m thinking of trading Adolis Garcia and Tyler Mahle to the Braves for Marcell Ozuna and Spencer Strider: What are your thoughts on my trade proposal?
Steve Adams
- Cannot fathom the Braves giving up Strider in that deal
- Or in general
Luis Rengifo
- Do I have trade value at all?
Steve Adams
- Sure. The contact skills are still good, and he’s hitting plenty of line drives. Overall quality of contact profile is poor, but he’s never been someone who hits the ball super hard with consistency even when he’s been at his best.
I don’t think Rengifo’s going to fetch the Angels any kind of significant prospect haul, but they’re not going to make him a QO, he’s a free agent at season’s end, and the Angels aren’t going anywhere this season, so I fully expect him to be moved. It’ll probably be a modest return, but that’s not a bad thing. They got Ryan Zeferjahn in that type of return, and he’s a genuinely interesting bullpen piece for them now
Dave Dombrowski
- will I be in the market for a player like jarren duran?
Steve Adams
- I imagine two-thirds of the league will ask the Red Sox about Jarren Duran. And Wilyer Abreu. And probably Ceddanne Rafaela, too.
The Red Sox have a lot of good outfielders, especially with Roman Anthony up.
Duran’s going to cost something significant and something close to MLB ready. For the Phillies, maybe Mick Abel-plus. That sort of thing. (With the “plus” also being quite significant … not like, Abel plus some 18-year-old lotto tickets)
Judgement
- Aaron judge.
Steve Adams
- Hear he’s P good at this baseball thing, yes.
KC42
- Still confused on the Braves decision to DFA Kimbrel after one inning when they still run out Montero on a daily basis. Kinda a slap in the face to an Icon to not even let him throw at Truist. AA has been questionable since the WS run.
Steve Adams
- Braves fans don’t like to hear it, but the World Series run was kind of just Anthopoulos throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and all of it somehow simultaneously sticking. Even he probably has to be in shock about how well all of those moves worked out.
I agree to an extent that he’s done a lot of weird things since. There have been a lot of great moves. Sale/Grissom is one of the best trades in recent memory. Risky, sure, but great self-evaluation of Grissom and a well-timed move since he lost all trade value quickly thereafter. Paying a ton of money to buy low on Kelenic? Like $30MMish once you factor in luxury taxes… less so. Paying nearly $3MM to rent Rafael Montero was wild.
- That’s the reason they’re keeping Montero over Kimbrel, though. They took on a notable chunk of his salary, while Kimbrel just got his prorated base for a day.
Kimbrel’s minor league numbers look nice, but his velo is now below average and the command hasn’t been great even in AAA.
Joshua
- Would Michael Soroka be a sneaky good trade candidate for a variety of contending teams? His era through 5 innings during his starts is just over 3.00, he has experience as a reliver and has excelled there, and is a FA to be so there is no long term money attached to him.
Steve Adams
- Yeah. I don’t like Soroka as a starter but I loved him as a reliever in the offseason and thought he could’ve cashed in on a nice two-year deal that way. He almost certainly could have, I should say, but clear he wanted to start and that was going to limit his earning more. If it keeps going well, maybe gets the nice multi-year this winter.
Teams might be wary of trading for a guy who prioritized starting as a free agent, and then immediately plugging him into a bullpen, but Soroka had to know that was a strong possibility when he signed on with the Nats. And he’s a professional who’d be getting a chance to chase a ring, so I’m sure it’d be fine.
Broadly — yes, go get Soroka. Put him in the ’pen. He was really impressive as a reliever last year and I still think that’s his best role.
- To the point you made, it’s not just that his results dip after five innings. He destroys opponents the firs time through the order and immediately turns into a pumpkin
- .148/.175/.262 first time through a lineup
.263/.311/.509 second time through
.400/.483/.680 third time through - (2025 only there, I should clarify)
Steve
- Are the TWINS still up for sale?
Steve Adams
John
- Denzel Clarke. Enough said
Steve Adams
- Guy is like peak “Superman” Pillar levels of fun to watch in the outfield
Seb
- Do you believe the A’s will be selling or buying at the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
- Selling short-term pieces, open to adding big leaguers who can be controlled several more years.
Astros fan
- Why did this site go down for a week
Steve Adams
- That… has never happened? Not sure what issue you ran into. Email through our contact form if you’re having some sort of problem
Joe
- Adrian Houser for Nick Frasso. Who says no?
Steve Adams
- If the Dodgers wanted Houser they could’ve just signed him for like a $2MM base
Front Row
- Any guesses about a Hader to the Padres type deal at this year’s deadline. An impact player traded away by a contending team?
Steve Adams
- Yandy/Brandon Lowe/Fairbanks from the Rays
Peralta from the Brewers
Clase from the Guardians, I suppose, but I think that’s more a fantasy that fans of other teams have than something Cleveland will do … but there will probably be a few rumors to that effect even if there’s minimal fire backing said smoke
Aaron,esq
- Does Chris Sale get traded?
Steve Adams
- We talked about this on the podcast we recorded this morning (cheap plug!).
I tend to think ATL will go into the deadline with the mindset of “We’re keeping him. We’re trying to win in 2026,” but offers will escalate to the point where they have to give real thought to it — kind of similar to the Twins with Jose Berrios several years back.
If he’s healthy, I can definitely see a team making the Braves bite the bullet.
Again, it’s boring to say “it’s too early to definitively say yes or no right now,” but that’s the reality. For the time being, yes, I find it eminently plausible even though the Braves would tell you right now “We’re not thinking like that.”
BC
- Do IKF and Bednar have much value? Should I trade them?
Steve Adams
- Not a ton for IKF, but a contending team will at least want him for a utility role. Or his old pals in the Bronx could use a second baseman!
Bednar has looked great since his recall from Triple-A … 30-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings, 2.61 ERA, sub-2.00 FIP and SIERA.
Every contending team should want Bednar, and his stock is trending way up again.
Aaron
- Is Stanton coming back this week?
Steve Adams
- If not this week, probably next. He’s on a rehab assignment starting today. Of course, given his injury history, we can’t just assume he gets through it setback-free
Earl Scheib
- Do you think this absolutely horrible season forces Colorado’s ownership to consider selling or at least completely replacing the front office? I can still see envision Dick Monfort rationalizing the whole thing away.
Steve Adams
- I have long since given up assuming that anything will snap Dick Monfort back to reality.
Brewers 3B/SS
- Will Bo Bichette be available at the deadline? If so, what package could the Brewers put together that would be fair for the rental?
Steve Adams
- I doubt Bichette’s available. The Jays are firmly in playoff contention right now, and even if they’re several games back of a spot, they have a front office/GM that probably feels like turnover is coming if the team doesn’t win.
You could maybe get more than the value of a potential QO by trading Bichette, but you’d really punch a hole in your 2025 chances. Unless the Jays are like 10 back of a playoff spot, I think he’s staying.
- Brewers wouldn’t be a good fit anyway, unless Toronto is eating like all of the salary.
Martras
- I’ve seen an increasing expectation the Twins might look to acquire more starting pitching at the deadline, but I don’t see it. By the time the deadline rolls back around, Lopez should be close to returning and #5ish rotation depth is still strong for the Twins. I don’t see any appetite for their ownership to spend, either. What is your take?
Steve Adams
- Generally agree. If they have more injuries or if Lopez/Matthews are going to be out awhile past the deadline, I could see them going after a Heaney or someone, just to avoid a situation like they had last year where they’re trying to stay afloat in a playoff race but running out three rookie starters (Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews). But if they think they’re 2-4 weeks out from a Lopez return, if Zebby’s back by then and if the rest of the staff is healthy, I don’t know that they’ll be making aggressive pushes for SP help.
Lots of “ifs” there, though.
AJ Preller
- What will I have to give up to get Ramon Laureano? Can I pry him away mid June without a overpay?
Steve Adams
- I just wouldn’t target/prioritize Laureano. He has decent numbers in a small sample this year, but the recent track record is bad, his K’s are up there, the defense isn’t what it once was and he’s not even hitting lefties well — he’s just BABIP’ing hard against righties (with some unexpected right-on-right pop). In general, I’d aim higher.
But, as you’d expect after seeing me rattle off that glowing review — I don’t think the cost of acquisition would be all that high, no. Haha.
Wook
- Brady House…July 1st call up?
Steve Adams
- Anytime at this point wouldn’t surprise me too much.
Christian Walker
- Am I living up to my contract even though negative war? Is negative war for first baseman the new norm?
Steve Adams
- I feel like it should go without saying that hitting .207/.269/.350 is decidedly not living up to a $20MM salary. K’s and chase way up, walks and power down. Not a great combo, but he’s still hitting the ball hard when he makes contact and still plays a good 1B defensively
JimmyKrakKorn
- Is Clase The starting centre fielder in Toronto next year and Varsho moves to Left. We will need a lead off hitter when Bo Bichett moves to the Dodgers
Steve Adams
- I don’t think Clase can/will hit, and even if he did, I’m not taking Varsho out of CF for him (or almost anyone else). Let him play LF and keep Varsho in center.
Dana Brown
- A lot of buzz around Miguel Ullola. He isn’t listed in top 100 prospects but could he be a center piece in a trade for a top line SP or bat?
Steve Adams
- I assume you’re talking locally in Houston? Ullola’s having a nice season in terms of his ERA and strikeout rate, but he’s walking almost 15% of his opponents in Triple-A. I don’t think he’s a centerpiece for a substantial deadline upgrade. But hey, only takes one team that loves him and thinks they can make some tweaks to bump his command a grade or two.
Redneck Rampage
- Is Misiorowski coming up to Milwaukee a precursor to a Brewer trade? There’s a whole lot of pitchers up there even without Woodruff.
Steve Adams
- Doubt it. The Brewers just view their Triple-A arms as an extension of the big league rotation. They had Quinn Priester lined up but have been getting good use of him as a bulk arm following openers with good success.
They’re going to get innings for all of Misiorowski, Henderson, Patrick, Priester, etc. down the stretch. I expect that they’ll trade some starting pitching at the deadline, even if they’re contending (Civale/Quintana most likely, but they’ll get big offers on Peralta) and maybe narrow the group thusly post-deadline.
Friars
- Have the Padres considered trading for Harrison Bader?
Steve Adams
- The Twins are five over .500, +37 run differential and currently hold a Wild Card spot.
Binky
- So when a player gets DFA’d what’s the benefit to the player in choosing FA and 1 minute later resigning a minor league deal vs instead of just accepting AAA right from thr get go.
Steve Adams
- New opt-out language, different salary terms, the brief ability to see if anyone else will put you directly on a MLB roster elsewhere.
Defense wins Championships
- Kimbrel makes sense for the Angels, right?
Steve Adams
- Kimbrel feels like a very Angels move, if only because they love rolling the dice on former stars.
Any team seeking bullpen depth (which is most of them) could sign Kimbrel — Braves included.
jed hoyer
- Does a team take a chance on half a season of Julio Urias?
Steve Adams
- Nope
Vladdy Jr
- Is it possible that I’m just not a slugger? Yes I hit the ball hard, but I can’t seem to get the launch angle for homers on the regular. And how bad does my 500 million contract look if I’m good for only 25-30 home runs a year?
Steve Adams
- Vlad hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers last year. If he’s “just” a 25-30 HR bat with those kinds of rate stats, they’ll be fine.
@Tayyyburrr
- Does Julio Urias, Bauer or Wander ever play in MLB again?
Steve Adams
- Nope
BB-STC
- Assuming that he won’t be traded this year, what does Paddack’s next contract look like?
Steve Adams
- Good command, sub-par K% and SwStr%. Average-ish velo. Two TJs under his belt. I’d have a hard time seeing anything past Taillon’s 4/68, and I’d probably take the under in years and AAV. Something in Eflin’s 3/40 range, perhaps?
Sad Reds Fan
- Hunter Greene would be a Cy Young candidate if he could stay healthy and that makes me sad
Steve Adams
- I have no great feedback other than to say, yes he would, and that’s understandable.
Kyle
- After 3000Ks, is Clayton Kershaw unanimous HOF’er? Or will some writer hold playoffs against him
Steve Adams
- I never expect anyone to get in unanimously, because some caveman writer will leave his ballot blank or like, only vote for one guy or something stupid. And then never own up to it.
But it doesn’t matter. Kershaw’s a slam-dunk first ballot HOF
Kyle
- Do you think the players will want to address in the next CBO the problem of clearly Ready prospects being held down until the summer to avoid them winning a full year via ROY?
Steve Adams
- That wrinkle in and of itself is a product of the ROY rules which were designed to prevent Kris Bryant/Vlad Jr. situations where teams hold players down for 15 days to buy a whole year of service.
This next iteration of service manipulation wasn’t hard to foresee. We were writing about how teams in situations like the O’s at the time could hold Rutschman (then a prospect) down until July or August even when they’re ready on Opening Day or mid-May for just this purpose.
Maybe they’ll try to address this, sure, but clubs will find another way to try to game the system then. It’s only natural.
Thinking Cap
- Any reason why Brendan Rodgers is still with the Astros & hasn’t been DFA’d? Highest K% of his career by far!
Steve Adams
- I don’t really get what they’re doing there. He has 28 PA in the past month. He’s not hitting on the rare occasions they do use him. It’s not quite Austin Wynns/Reds level of non-usage, but it’s not far off. At a certain point — and I’d say we’re there — move on and make better use of the roster spot.
Josh Elliott
- I watched most of a Guardians game about a week or so ago. 3 questions. Is Angel Martinez available? Can he play LF? Would the Padres be able to get him without giving up Salas/De Vries? Thank you!
Steve Adams
- I assume you must’ve caught a good Martinez game, but there haven’t been many of them. He has a .257 OBP and the ninth-highest chase rate on balls off the plate among the 239 MLB hitters with 150+ PAs this year. That’s not the sort of upgrade I’m targeting. I’m surprised the Guardians are sticking with him.
Carl
- Speaking of Kimbrel, he is a hall of famer?
Steve Adams
- 440 saves, career 39 K% — I expect he’ll get in.
Backstops
- How would you rank the following young catchers in projected career value: Henry Davis, Hunter Goodman, Alejandro Kirk, Logan O’Hoppe
Steve Adams
- In the reverse order you listed them
Red Sox fan
- Does Salas and De Vries get Duran
Steve Adams
- Padres aren’t doing that
- (But, yes, if the Padres actually offered that, I imagine the Red Sox would say “Um… ok?”)
Harry Ford
- What tier of player could I return the Mariners if they put me on the block?
Steve Adams
- He’s basically an MLB-ready, 55- or 60-FV catching prospect. He could rightly be the return for the overwhelming majority of players available at this year’s deadline.
Jerry Dipoto also just unleashed a lengthy and largely unprompted ode to how much the org loves Harry Ford and how they think both he and Raleigh can coexist on the same roster long-term, so while I doubt he’s expressly untouchable, I also don’t think it’s necessarily likely that he’s traded.
Kyle
- If the Pirates do trade Skenes, even if next year, is the return even bigger than Soto’s? Assuming health stays of course
Steve Adams
- They won’t this year, but yes, it would be a larger return than Soto either this year or next.
J2F
- Looks like Mil just promoted Misiorowski. Once Chandler gets the call, which one would you prefer for fantasy purposes?
Steve Adams
- Chandler because the Pirates will keep him up. The Brewers will keep shuttling guys up and down all year as the situation necessitates. Need some length in the bullpen because Misiorowski went 5 innings but the game ran into the 11th? Misiorowski is going to get optioned.
- Also, Chandler’s just the more highly regarded prospect. But the roster machinations in Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh make it an easier call even if you think Chandler is overrated and/or Misiorowski is underrated.
Claude Hopper
- What constitutes an acceptable return for Freddy Peralta? They would need a starting corner infielder and a top 5 organizational prospect IMO, especially considering Freddy’s salary.
Steve Adams
- I would agree with something along those lines, yeah. “top 5 organizational prospect” feels too nebulous. The Mariners’ No. 5 prospect and the Angels’ No. 5 prospect are wildly different things.
Two clear-cut 50 FV or better prospects (basically top-100 guys), or one plug-and-play young infielder and a 50 FV prospect seems like a good starting point.
baseball gods laugh and laugh
- Who wouldn’t Salas and De Vries get?
Steve Adams
- I mean the two of them on their own might not get Skenes. And the Yankees or Mariners aren’t tanking their contending seasons by trading Judge or Raleigh in order to get two teenagers
- But generally, yes, trading Salas+De Vries is a good recipe to get 99% of the league haha
LFGM
- What do you see the Mets doing at the deadline? I look and I see a pretty complete team, but definitely need a BP arm
Steve Adams
- Yeah, every contender is always in the mix for more bullpen help. Mets could use a lefty, in particular.
Seebs
- What did they used to call and oblique injury? Between that and hamate bones it’s like players and trainers are inventing new maladies. I’m old fashioned – give me hedge trimmer or coolers of deer meat injuries
Steve Adams
- Haha, I’ve been working MLBTR since not terribly long after the days of Clint Barmes’ trip to the 15-day venison list, and I remember oblique and hamate injuries even back then.
- Back in the 60s-70s, they probably called oblique injuries “big deal, your side hurts, play through it” and then released the guy after the season because his numbers tanked
- Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve if you have more questions.
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