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Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?

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It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?

The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.

This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.

Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).

Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?

(Poll link for app users)

Mets Notes: Matz, Ramos, Allan

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Steven Matz has been a staple in the Mets’ rotation (when healthy) since his 2015 debut, but he’s recently been shifted to the bullpen in a move that manager Mickey Callaway hasn’t fully termed as temporary, Zach Braziller of the New York Post writes. While Callaway called Matz one of the team’s top five starters, the manager also declined to definitively state that Matz will return to the rotation. “I expect that after the All-Star break [he’ll be back in the rotation],” said Callaway, “but we’ll adjust if we need to.” That statement came prior to Matz’s bullpen debut last night — a scoreless outing. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes that after the game, Callaway “hesitated multiple times” when asked about Matz’s return to the rotation and did indicate that he could stay in the ’pen for a longer period of time. Matz himself spoke to DiComo and other reporters about the different feel of relief pitching and took a team-first approach, stating that he’s willing to pitch in any role the club feels will help win games.

More Mets talk…

  • SNY’s John Harper opines that trading Wilson Ramos should be a priority for the Mets at the deadline, citing defensive issues that have led multiple pitchers to prefer throwing to Tomas Nido. Both Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard look like they’ll be paired with Nido moving forward, Harper writes. He quotes one unnamed official who suggests that part of Syndergaard’s 2019 struggles have come from pitching up in the zone more, some of which could be tied to Ramos’ struggles to block pitches in the dirt following a significant knee surgery late in his Nationals tenure. There’s no clear indication in the report that New York will actually look to jettison Ramos, who is an objectively better hitter than Nido even in a down season. Ramos has slashed .275/.348/.414 with nine homers while the 25-year-old Nido has displayed a continued inability to get on base. In 180 career plate appearances, Nido is a .209/.233/.308 hitter, including a .263 OBP in 80 trips to the plate in 2019. Defensive prowess aside, a .233 OBP is a tough sell even for a backup. Nido has walked only six times in his career despite primarily hitting eighth ahead of the pitcher.
  • The Mets reached a deal last week with their third round pick, highly-touted high school right-hander Matthew Allan.  The signing was the culmination of a bold gambit from the club’s front office, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton (subscription required) details how carving out the bonus pool space to meet Allan’s high asking price led to the Mets “manipulating our entire draft” to accommodate Allan, as GM Brodie Van Wagenen put it.  After the third round, the Mets spent the rest of their picks in rounds 4-10 on college seniors, who had less negotiating leverage and thus signed for bonuses of $20K or less.  A strong endorsement from scout Jon Updike also gave the Mets confidence that Allan would ultimately sign and begin his pro career, rather than attend college.

Jed Lowrie Still Isn't Close To Starting Rehab Assignment

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Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Mets infielder Jed Lowrie still isn’t close to making his 2019 debut, manager Mickey Callaway told Tim Healey of Newsday and other reporters Wednesday. Lower body injuries have kept Lowrie from playing this season after he joined the Mets on a two-year, $20MM contract over the winter. With the season now at the halfway point, Callaway doesn’t even seem willing to commit to Lowrie taking the field at all in 2019. Asked if he expects to see Lowrie this year, Callaway said: “That’s hard to say. There’s so much of the season left. We’ll just have to play that by ear.”

Todd Frazier Discusses Potential Trade

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As a soon-to-be free agent on a team that appears to be going nowhere in the standings, third baseman Todd Frazier looks like a potential trade chip for the Mets. With the July 31 deadline exactly four weeks out, Frazier addressed his future Wednesday, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post: “If I get traded, OK. If not, I am glad to be here as a Met. I am doing something, so it’s always good to be wanted.”

Trades aren’t anything new to Frazier, who has been part of two deals since he started his career in Cincinnati in 2011. The Reds sent Frazier to the White Sox in December 2015, and just under two calendar years later, the Pale Hose dealt him to the Yankees around the 2017 trade deadline. Frazier then joined the Yankees’ crosstown rivals the ensuing offseason on his current deal – a two-year, $17MM guarantee which Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen negotiated on his behalf.

Van Wagenen was Frazier’s agent when the veteran changed New York franchises, but now BVW is in the unique position of potentially trading away a player whose payday he secured. Frazier’s still owed about $4.31MM on his deal, a pact which has been a mixed bag for the Mets. While Frazier endured a down, injury-shortened initial campaign with the Mets, the 33-year-old has rebounded in 2019 to slash .256/.335/.450 (111 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 236 plate appearances. Frazier has aided his cause with career-best strikeout, swinging-strike and contact rates.

Everyday third basemen could be difficult to find around the deadline, which may work in the Mets’ favor if they try to trade Frazier. Considering their upward trajectory, the Nationals don’t seem likely to deal Anthony Rendon. Otherwise, aside from Frazier, there’s a wide selection of trade possibilities who profile more as part-time players or utility infielders than full-time third basemen. Pablo Sandoval, Derek Dietrich, Jonathan Villar, Neil Walker, Eric Sogard and Tim Beckham are among them.

Carlos Gomez Elects Free Agency

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Veteran outfielder Carlos Gomez elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment from the Mets, per the International League transactions log. He was designated for assignment over the weekend.

Gomez, 33, ripped a trio of home runs in his brief reunion with the Mets — including a go-ahead three-run shot not long after being selected from the minor leagues. However, his overall body of work in his return to Queens, where he made his MLB debut as a 21-year-old back in 2007, proved underwhelming. In 99 trips to the plate, the two-time All-Star and former Gold Glover hit just .198/.278/.337 with 30 strikeouts.

Gomez had a solid season with the Rangers back in 2017, but his brief All-Star peak from 2013-14 is now a distant memory. Gomez batted a combined .284/.347/.491 with 47 homers, 74 steals and strong defense in that stretch, racking up 12.3 WAR along the way. Since that brilliant pair of seasons, he’s hit a combined .236/.311/.395 in 1863 plate appearances. He’s not the elite runner he once was, but Gomez still possesses above-average speed (79th percentile in average sprint speed, per Statcast) and is experienced at all three outfield spots, making him a reasonable minor league pickup for a team in need of outfield depth.

Zack Wheeler Rumors: Yankees, Braves, Brewers

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Trades between the Yankees and Mets have been rare during the crosstown rivals’ histories. The clubs have made just 15 deals since 1966, in fact, but we might see No. 16 this summer. With the starter-needy Yankees pushing for a World Series and the Mets looking like non-contenders, the New York franchises could come together on a trade for soon-to-be free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler this month. The Yankees are already known to like Wheeler, and the Mets wouldn’t be averse to sending him to the Bronx, Andy Martino of SNY.tv says.

The Mets are more focused on getting the best offer for Wheeler than where they’d trade him. But the Yankees are sure to face plenty of competition for Wheeler if they do make an earnest attempt to pull him in before the July 31 deadline. Martino names Atlanta and Milwaukee as just a couple other teams with interest in the 29-year-old. The Brewers were “enamored” of Wheeler’s upside as recently as last offseason, per Marc Carig of The Athletic (subscription link).

The heat-throwing Wheeler put on a show for an array of scouts Tuesday when he handled, of all teams, the Yankees. Wheeler fanned eight over 6 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits and a walk. He’s still running an uninspiring 4.42 ERA through 114 frames this season, up significantly from last year’s 3.31. It hasn’t helped that Wheeler has pitched in front of a dreadful defense, though, and the rest of his output is far more promising than his simple run prevention numbers. Wheeler has struck out 9.71 batters per nine while walking 2.53, giving him an outstanding 3.71 K/BB ratio. He’s also inducing grounders at a 45.3 percent clip and infield flies 14 percent of the time – the latter of which ranks 13th among qualified starters.

Adding to Wheeler’s appeal, he’s on a $5.975MM salary that every contender should be able to afford. It appears he’ll join Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner as one of the top two rental starters available in July, barring a miraculous Mets turnaround. The Mets have won two in a row, though they’re still just 39-47 and six games out in a jam-packed National League playoff race. Assuming New York elects to sell, dealing Wheeler would give the team a chance to replenish its lackluster farm system to at least some degree. The Mets just may be able to do that at the Yankees’ expense.

Dilson Herrera Opts Out Of Mets Contract

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Infielder Dilson Herrera has opted out of his minor league contract with the Mets, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Herrera had been with the team since late November.

This ends Herrera’s second stint as a member of the Mets, who originally acquired him from the Pirates in a 2013 trade involving outfielder Marlon Byrd and catcher John Buck. Herrera was a well-regarded prospect at the time who continued climbing up lists after the deal, but shoulder problems stunted his development and hastened his departure from the Mets. They traded Herrera to the Reds for outfielder Jay Bruce in August 2016, after the former had collected just 169 plate appearances in a New York uniform.

Herrera was a member of the Cincinnati organization until rejoining the Mets last winter. He only collected 97 trips to the plate as a Red, all last season, and owns a .203/.293/.394 line with a 91 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 266 major league attempts. The 25-year-old has been much more productive in Triple-A ball, where he has slashed .285/.350/.477 with 57 HRs in 1,561 attempts. Herrera added 17 of those homers this year as a member of the the Mets’ top affiliate in Syracuse and batted .258/.355/.566 (126 wRC+) in 256 PA.

Notable International Signings: 7/2/19

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The 2019-20 July 2nd international signing period is officially underway, though it’s not exactly laden with suspense. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.

Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Throughout, we’ll be citing to the reporting of Baseball America (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) along with analysis from Fangraphs. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Here are a few key deals:

  • Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: Everyone’s top target is reportedly holding strong on his commitment to go to the Bronx. The deal is said to be for $5.1MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, with an announcement expected this evening. Dominguez is a switch-hitter who’s said to possess five-tool ability. The Fangraphs team is sufficiently impressed to run him all the way up to the #61 overall MLB prospect ranking right out of the gates (via Kiley McDaniel, on Twitter). The Yanks also have struck a $1.2MM deal with outfielder Jhon Diaz, Sanchez tweets. He was the 18th-rated player on the MLB.com board but ran all the way up to #7 at Fangraphs.
  • Robert Puason, SS, Athletics: Another player who’ll command about $5MM, Puason is a toolsy shortstop with big upside. He was said to have a deal in place with the Braves before that team was slapped with international sanctions. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta organization wasn’t actually punished for agreeing to terms early (though that widespread practice is officially forbidden) but rather for structuring a group deal with Puason’s trainer, as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains on Twitter.
  • Luis Rodriguez, OF, Dodgers: The value on this one is unknown, but BA’s Ben Badler has photographic evidence of the signing (Twitter link). Rodriguez gets top-three billing from Fangraphs. The Los Angeles club is also in agreement with righty Kristian Cardozo, who’s also considered one of the thirty best players available.
  • Bayron Lora, OF, Rangers: Baseball America has made this connection for some time; Sanchez tweets that it’s a $4.2MM deal for the slugging prospect. Shortstops Maximo Acosta and Zion Banister are also members of the Texas signing class. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) has the former at $1.6MM and the latter at $835K. As he notes, the Texas organization will need to acquire some added pool capacity to make the math work.
  • Erick Pena, OF, Royals: This is another signing called in advance by the BA crew. Sanchez has the bonus at $3.8MM (Twitter link). FG labels Pena “a well-rounded outfielder with considerable physical projection.”
  • Ronnier Quintero, C, Cubs: Occupying the #6 spot on the boards of both Fangraphs and MLB.com, Quintero will follow Willson Contreras from Venezuela to the Chicago organization. The Cubbies also have a deal with fellow top-ten-ish prospect Kevin Made, a shortstop. Sanchez puts the Quintero deal at $3MM and Made’s mark at $1.7MM. Another Venezuelan backstop, Brayan Altuve, will cost the Cubs another million bucks, seemingly setting up the organization for a search for some added pool money.
  • Roberto Campos, OF, Tigers: The Detroit organization popped for a hefty $3MM to secure the services of the Cuban outfielder, per Badler (via Twitter). Campos defected in somewhat dramatic fashion several years ago at just 13 years of age. He wasn’t listed among the best prospects, but Chris McCosky of the Detroit News indicates on Twitter that the Tigers like his bat quite a bit.

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, per Sanchez and/or Badler:

  • Twins, $2.7MM, outfielder Enmanuel Rodriguez
  • Angels, $2.2MM, shortstop Arol Vera
  • Marlins, $2.8MM, shortstop Jose Salas
  • Mets, $2.05MM, outfielder Alexander Ramirez
  • Padres, $2MM,  outfielder Ismael Mena
  • Astros, $2MM, shortstop Dauris Lorenzo

Mets Outright Ryan O'Rourke To Triple-A

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  • The Phillies announced that righty Fernando Salas cleared waivers, and has been outrighted to Triple-A.  Salas signed a minors deal with the club earlier this month and was called to the big league roster for one game (with one inning pitched) before being designated for assignment on Friday.  This brief cameo marked Salas’ appearance in a tenth MLB season, following much longer stints with the Cardinals, Angels, and Mets throughout the decade.  The 34-year-old had a 4.50 ERA over 40 innings with the D’Backs in 2018, and after a brief stay in the Braves’ minor league system last year, didn’t land with a new team until his contract with Philadelphia.
  • The Mets have outrighted Ryan O’Rourke to Triple-A after the left-hander cleared waivers.  (MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among those to report the news.)  O’Rourke was designated for assignment last week.  After signing a minor league contract with New York over the winter, O’Rourke appeared in two games for the Mets, marking his first MLB action since 2016 when he was a member of the Twins’ bullpen.  Beyond his 48 1/3 career big league innings, O’Rourke has a 3.83 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 3.46 K/BB rate over 404 1/3 innings as a minor leaguer for the Mets, Orioles, and Twins over nine pro seasons.

Mets Designate Carlos Gomez, Activate Noah Syndergaard

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Per an official team announcement, the Mets have designated outfielder Carlos Gomez for assignment in order to make room for pitcher Noah Syndergaard, who has been activated from the injured list.

Syndergaard landed on the 10-day injured list on June 16 with a hamstring strain that forced him to exit his last start early. After spending two weeks on the shelf, Thor is on track to start Sunday’s series finale against the Braves. Thus far, Syndergaard hasn’t been able to produce the results we’ve come to expect from him; his 4.51 ERA is markedly above 2.93 mark he posted between 2015 and 2018. His 3.61 FIP paints a somewhat more promising picture, though even that is considerably worse than his previous numbers.

With Gomez out of the picture, the Mets will proceed with 13 pitchers on the active roster for the time being. Due to Dominic Smith’s emergence as a viable left fielder, Michael Conforto has stepped into a regular role in center field, leaving Juan Lagares as the team’s fourth outfielder and making Gomez relatively expendable.

However, it’s not just roster crunch that’s pushing Gomez off the roster: he has not been especially impressive in his 99 plate appearances with the Mets, slashing a mediocre .198/.278/.337 with 30 strikeouts. While his .616 OPS is a notch above Lagares’s dreadful .514 mark, Gomez has graded out poorly as a defensive center fielder; Lagares, on the other hand, benefits from a solid reputation as a defender. Now it looks as though Gomez, who was in his second stint with the Mets, will see his time with the team come to an end.

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