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Mets Interested In Joe Panik

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FRIDAY: There’s “a strong chance” Panik will sign with the Mets when he clears waivers, Martino writes.

THURSDAY: The Mets have interest in Giants second baseman Joe Panik, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports.  Panik was designated for assignment Tuesday and placed on release waivers yesterday, and he’ll officially enter into free agency at noon CT on Friday if he isn’t claimed by another team in the interim.

The Mets’ interest may hinge on whether or not Panik is actually on the open market.  If Panik were to sign as a free agent, New York would only be responsible for paying him a prorated MLB minimum salary for the rest of the season (roughly $164K) and the Giants would have to cover the $956K still owed to Panik for the remainder of the one-year, $3.8MM contract he signed last offseason.  If the Mets were to just claim Panik off waivers, they’d have to pay him the entire $1.12MM in remaining salary themselves.

As recently noted by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets are quite close to the luxury tax threshold of $206MM, as Roster Resource estimates New York’s luxury tax number at just under $203.38MM, counting the newly-signed Brad Brach’s minimum salary.  Since the team is loath to make any tax payments and player movement is more difficult now that the trade deadline has passed, the Mets are targeting players like Panik or Brach, who can potentially contribute while their former teams foot the bulk of the bill.  MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that at least one other team besides the Mets has interest in Panik, though it isn’t known if this mystery team is willing to make a claim for Panik, or if they are also waiting for Panik to hit free agency.

Panik would provide New York with a short-term replacement for Robinson Cano at second base while Cano is on the injured list, though it’s a fair question to wonder how much Panik can produce in the wake of his recent performance.  Aside from an All-Star season in 2015, Panik has been a below-average hitter for the rest of his career, including hitting only .245/.308/.325 over 780 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 campaign.  As maligned as Cano’s 2019 season has been, Panik has actually been worse — Cano’s 0.4 fWAR is superior to Panik’s sub-replacement level -0.2 fWAR.

Still, at a minimum price, there’s little harm for the Mets in taking a flier on Panik if nothing else than an extra body in their infield mix.  Panik would also add another left-handed bat to a largely right-handed Mets lineup, and his presence at second base would allow Jeff McNeil to remain largely in the outfield.

East Injury Notes: Yankees, Braves, Mets

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The latest on a few notable injury situations from the East Coast…

  • Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has resumed baseball activities, but the club doesn’t expect him to return before rosters expand in September, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Stanton has been on the injured list since June 26 with a sprained right knee – the latest ailment in a season packed with them for the former NL MVP. The 29-year-old slugger has collected just 38 plate appearances, but the injury-ravaged Yankees have persevered through his absence and many others en route to the American League’s top record (75-39). Key right-handers Luis Severino and Dellin Betances have accompanied Stanton among this year’s unavailable Yankees, though King explains that both pitchers continue to progress. Shoulder and lat problems have prevented either from throwing a single pitch in the majors this season. They could be crucial late-season reinforcements for a pitching-needy New York club that was unable to make upgrades at last week’s trade deadline.
  • The Braves still have no timetable for the return of shortstop Dansby Swanson, manager Brian Snitker said Thursday (via David O’Brien of The Athletic). Swanson has been dealing with a heel issue for more than two weeks, which has primarily left short to Johan Camargo in his stead. Unfortunately for the Braves, though, Camargo has put up a year to forget. Since Swanson went down, Camargo has seen his already weak batting line drop to .217/.267/.333 in 222 plate appearances this season. On the other hand, Swanson was hitting a career-high .265/.330/.468 with 17 home runs in 431 PA when he hit the injured list.
  • The Mets sent outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the 60-day IL Thursday in a procedural move, though he could begin a rehab assignment within a week, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. After what looked like a breakout 2018 campaign, in which Nimmo slashed .263/.404/.483 with 17 HRs in 535 PA, he has struggled through injuries and poor performance this season. Nimmo hasn’t played since late May because of a bulging disk in his neck, and he limped to a .200/.344/.323 line with three long balls over 161 PA before then. Even without Nimmo, the Mets have gone on an improbable run over the past couple weeks to put themselves firmly in NL wild-card contention. Some of Nimmo’s fellow outfielders, including Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis, have helped lead the charge.

Mets Sign Brad Brach

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The Mets have signed right-hander Brad Brach, as per the team’s Twitter feed.  Brandon Nimmo was shifted to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot, while left-hander Donnie Hart was optioned to Triple-A to create space on New York’s active roster.

After being released earlier this week by the Cubs, the Mets are hopeful that a change of scenery can turn around what has been easily the roughest full season of Brach’s career.  The righty has a 6.13 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and 1.61 K/BB rate over 39 2/3 innings this season, with an ungainly 6.4 BB/9 and a career-high 37.4% hard-hit ball rate standing out as the biggest issues.  That said, Brach was perhaps a touch unlucky to post that big ERA, as his .375 BABIP and ERA predictors (4.13 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.93 SIERA) could hint.

It’s worth noting that Brach also didn’t pitch well last season with the Orioles before a midseason trade to the Braves got him back on track, as Brach had a 1.52 ERA over 23 2/3 frames for Atlanta.  Overall, Brach has spent much of the decade as a solid-to-excellent relief arm for the Padres, Orioles, and Braves, posting a 3.05 ERA, 2.43 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 449 innings from 2012-18.

Anything close to that performance would be a big help to a New York bullpen that has largely struggled this season, apart from a superlative year from Seth Lugo and some good work from southpaw Justin Wilson over his 21 innings with the club.  Edwin Diaz is ostensibly still the closer, though Lugo could potentially get more save opportunities down the stretch, so Brach could possibly step right into a setup role.

The Mets will only be paying Brach a prorated minimum salary for the remainder of the season, as the Cubs are covering the rest of the salary owed to Brach under the terms of his rather bonus-heavy one-year contract.  The deal also contains a dual option for 2020 — the Mets can either pay Brach $5MM or buy him out for $100K.  If the latter option occurs, Brach can enact a player option worth $1.35MM.

Though Brodie Van Wagenen has only been the Mets’ general manager for less than a year, the club had interest in Brach prior to the 2018 season, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  A Brach-for-Matt Harvey deal was discussed between the Mets and Orioles, which creates an interesting what-if scenario for fans.

Mets, Zack Wheeler “Failed To Progress” In Extension Talks

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The Mets were seemingly exploring all options as both buyers and sellers leading up to the trade deadline, including the possibility of signing Zack Wheeler to an extension and (presumably then) trading Noah Syndergaard.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had the original report about the Mets’ interest in extending Wheeler, and in a longer piece (subscription required), Rosenthal notes that Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen actually did broach a long-term deal with Wheeler’s agent.  However, “the conversations failed to progress,” and Wheeler is still on track to reach free agency after the season.

It isn’t any surprise that the two sides didn’t link up, if for no other reason than it’s rare to see a pending free agent sign a midseason extension.  Usually, such deals are completed before Opening Day (or perhaps shortly into April) in the player’s final season under contract.  With over two-thirds of the season in the books, however, it likely would’ve taken a real sweetheart of an offer from the Mets to convince Wheeler to forego his shot at the open market, particularly since he stands to land a rich deal.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently slotted Wheeler fourth in his latest power ranking of the 2019-20 free agent class.

If anything, Wheeler’s stock has only risen since the trade deadline.  The right-hander has tossed 15 shutout innings over his last two starts, continuing his career-long trend of pitching better in the second half of the season.  For all of 2019, Wheeler has a 4.20 ERA, 9.62 K/9, 46.3% grounder rate, 4.26 K/BB rate, and .297 xwOBA over 139 1/3 innings, with ERA indicators (3.44 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA) hinting that he is outperforming his actual ERA.

Even before his two post-deadline starts boosted his numbers, Wheeler was still generating a lot of trade interest, though no team was prepared to meet the Mets’ “high, high expectations” (as one team official told Rosenthal) placed on any trade offer for Wheeler, Syndergaard, or any other player who might have been available.  The asking price was high enough even to deter teams who might have been willing to overpay for Wheeler — one rival executive tells Rosenthal that his club was prepared to make a “stupid” offer to add him to their rotation before the deadline.

As Rosenthal notes, this “stupid” offer (and possibly other offers from other teams) would likely have given the Mets more in return for Wheeler than the compensatory draft pick they’d be in line to receive if Wheeler signed elsewhere this winter after rejecting a qualifying offer.  Like so many other free agents in recent years, Wheeler’s market could be somewhat impacted by a qualifying offer (a one-year deal in the range of $18MM+), though the odds are good right now that he’d reject the QO in search of a longer-term contract.

The Mets ended up being buyers rather than sellers at the deadline, adding Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays and holding onto the rest of their starting staff.  At the moment, it’s hard to argue with results, as New York was already on a hot streak going into the deadline that has now extended to a run of 13 wins over their last 14 games.  If the Mets did plan to make a playoff push, however, Rosenthal wonders why Stroman ended up being the only move, as the club didn’t address other needs (i.e. relief pitching, center field), and also traded another starter in Jason Vargas to the Phillies, another team in wild card contention.  It’s possible the Mets could be active on the August waiver wire, though Rosenthal also wonders if the $206MM luxury tax threshold could have been a consideration — Roster Resource has the Mets’ luxury tax number at just under $203.22MM.

The Mets’ Unsung Offensive Star

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It was an action-packed offseason for rookie Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who stole headlines with his transactions and his bold proclamations naming his club the favorite in the National League East. Van Wagenen’s roster hasn’t performed to expectations since then, but after a tumultuous few months, the team has climbed above .500 and put itself in the thick of the NL wild-card race. One of Van Wagenen’s less heralded offseason pickups has been among the Mets at the forefront of their midsummer hot streak.

There was little hype accompanying the Mets’ acquisition of infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis from the Astros on Jan. 6. The Mets surrendered three minor leaguers for Davis, who – despite being a 2014 third-round pick and a solid prospect in Houston – didn’t have an obvious path to playing time with the Astros. However, the 26-year-old quickly worked his way into New York’s plans, thanks in part to season-opening injuries to infielders Todd Frazier and the still-hurt Jed Lowrie, and hasn’t graced the minors at all in 2019 after spending almost all of his Astros tenure there.

While Davis did hold his own at the lower levels with the Astros, he collected just 181 major league plate appearances from 2017-18 – in which he batted an unimpressive .194/.260/.321. On the other hand, the Mets’ version has amassed 293 PA and slashed a terrific .300/.369/.498 (131 wRC+) with 12 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk percentages (20.1 K, 9.2 BB). Much of the damage has come in the summer months for Davis, who overcame an unproductive May to post an .881 OPS in June and a 1.017 mark in July. His recent output has helped New York to a second-half awakening – after going into the All-Star break at 40-50, the team has shockingly risen to 57-56.

Although his production has benefited from a .347 batting average on balls in play – which is sure to drop considering the slow-moving Davis’ groundball-heavy profile – that’s not to say he has lucked into his success. To the contrary, according to Statcast, which places Davis in the league’s 91st percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average, hard-hit percentage and expected batting average.  As impressive as Davis’ .369 wOBA is, his .389 xwOBA is even better and ties for 17th among all qualified hitters, sandwiching him between Juan Soto and teammate/NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. It helps, of course, that Davis has chased far fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter.

Regardless of whether the Mets do the unthinkable and rally to a playoff berth this year, it looks as if they have a legitimate long-term piece in Davis. As someone who has handled both right- and left-handed pitchers, the righty-swinging Davis has the makings of an everyday player. And while he has accrued more appearances in left field (38) than at third (31), it’s possible he’ll take over for Frazier – a pending free agent – at the hot corner next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Mets Make A Wild Run?

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An optimist might point out that the Mets now have the best record in baseball since they sent rookie slugger Pete Alonso out for an All-Star tater-mashing bonanza. A pessimist might counter that the club has mostly feasted on sub-par teams in doing so.

And a realist? He or she would focus on what’s truly notable about the New York club’s recent run: the fact that it puts the Mets back to within clear shouting distance of Wild Card position. These twenty-some-odd games didn’t really tell us much about the talent level of this team. They did change the math of the postseason picture.

Fangraphs’ projection-based postseason odds take a fairly favorable view of the Mets, valuing them as a .546 winning-percentage true-talent outfit. It is decidedly less enthused with the Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Rockies … yet projects all of those clubs in the vicinity of .500. The view is notably dimmer on the Giants, but even in that case, we’re looking at a ~fifty game sample in which all kinds of good and bad fortune (run distribution, injuries, high-leverage happenstance, bad hops, missed calls, etc.) can and will intervene.

When reasonable go-forward expectations are so tightly clustered, the starting point in the standings matters quite a bit. That’s why the Mets and Phillies have near the same odds, by Fangraphs’ reckoning, with the former’s estimated true-talent advantage offset by the latter’s existing lead. The Mets have reeled in the pace-setters in the Wild Card race (less so the division), to the point that they’re one of the more plausible teams to land in the play-in game. (Per Fangraphs, the Citi Field denizens rank third among the five non-division-leaders that project to a 20%+ likelihood. 538 and especially B-Ref are less bullish on the Mets.)

Emerging from this jam-packed field will be a matter of exploiting small advantages, squeezing value from the dusty corners of the roster, making correct decisions and performing in the key moments. Do the Mets have an advantage with a loaded rotation? Or are they doomed by a leaky pen? Will their spunky young leaders continued to drive the bus, or struggle when they encounter late-season adjustments from newly attentive pitching staffs? Will GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway pull the right levers and push the right buttons?

There are too many considerations to even begin listing them all. How do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)

Robinson Cano Diagnosed With Hamstring Tear

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6:50pm: Cano has been diagnosed with a torn hamstring, the team announced and David Lennon of Newsday was among those to cover on Twitter. The specific grade is not clear; neither is the precise timeline. While surgery is not expected to be necessary, it certainly sounds as if Cano is headed for a lengthy absence.

11:45am: The Mets announced Monday that they’ve placed second baseman Robinson Cano on the 10-day injured list due to a strained left hamstring. Fellow infielder Luis Guillorme is up from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster. The Mets also officially named right-hander Walker Lockett the 26th man for today’s doubleheader against the Marlins. He’ll start the second game of that twin bill.

Cano, 36, has had a poor overall season in his first year with the Mets but had been heating up at the dish of late. Though he’s hitting just .252/.295/.415 through 346 plate appearances, he’d turned in four consecutive multi-hit appearances prior to his latest injury, which was sustained on what looked to be his third double of yesterday’s game. Cano erupted for a three-homer game back on July 23 but collected just two total hits in seven games between that and the beginning of his recent multi-hit streak.

It’s the third time this season that Cano has landed on the 10-day injured list. The Mets didn’t give an indication as to the severity of the strain or any type of expected timeline for his return. In his absence, the Mets can shift Jeff McNeil to second base and play one of Juan Lagares or Aaron Altherr more in the outfield. Alternatively, if the preference is to keep McNeil in the outfield, Cano’s reps at second base can be divided among Guillorme and Adeiny Hechavarria. It’s likely that some combination of those scenarios will be used to cover second base while Cano is out. He’ll join Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie, Dominic Smith and Yoenis Cespedes as Mets position players on the injured list.

Quick Hits: Diaz, Rays, Prospects, Stanek, Black

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Edwin Diaz’s struggles may finally be loosening his grip on the Mets’ closing job, as manager Mickey Callaway told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey) that “I don’t think we can lock ourselves in to one thing” in terms of who pitches the ninth inning.  “Moving forward, it’s just something that we’re going to do whatever we can to win a game that night,” Callaway said.  After a dominant 2018 season with the Mariners, Diaz’s first season in Queens has been a borderline disaster, with a 5.44 ERA inflated by a 22.2% home run rate and a huge increase in the righty’s hard-hit ball rate.  Just when it seemed like Diaz might have been turning a corner by tossing six scoreless innings over a seven-game stretch in July, he proceeded to allow at least one earned run in each of his last four outings.

This would seem to open the door for Seth Lugo to receive save opportunities, as Callaway said that Lugo also isn’t operating out of an assigned role.  Lugo has been the Mets’ best reliever this season, and could be shifted into closer duties or (if the Mets strayed from the traditional closer role) be saved only for highest-leverage situations, whether those are in the ninth inning or earlier in the game.

Here’s more as we begin a new week…

  • The Rays’ busy trade deadline is explored by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, who includes the detail that the club wasn’t willing to discuss moving many of their top prospects, including Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Vidal Brujan and Matthew Liberatore.  Jesus Sanchez was the only member of that top tier who seemed to be on the block, and indeed it was Sanchez who was dealt along with Ryne Stanek to the Marlins in exchange for Trevor Richards and Nick Anderson.
  • Meanwhile, Stanek’s erstwhile role as an opener factored into the Rays’ decision to trade the right-hander.  Interestingly, Topkin writes that the Rays “shed the uncertainty of his opener-influenced arbitration case in 2021,” which promises to be a fascinating test case for how an arbiter could put a financial precedent on a new role within the game.  As Topkin notes, Stanek has been much better as an opener (2.71 ERA in 83 innings) than in a normal relief role (4.73 ERA in 59 innings).
  • The Brewers believe they might have a hidden gem in trade deadline acquisition Ray Black, as president of baseball operations David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Black has “as good…stuff as any reliever in the game.”  Black had only a 6.04 ERA over 25 1/3 career Major League innings as a member of the Giants, due in part to five homers allowed in that brief stint.  However, he also struck out 38 batters with his blazing fastball, and also posted a 3.70 ERA, 2.83 K/BB rate, and 16.8 K/9 over 153 1/3 career frames in the minors.  Between that live arm and those strikeout totals, Stearns thinks Black can blossom in Milwaukee, and pointed to a relatively healthy season for Black in 2019 as a positive development after multiple years shortened by injuries.  “The most important thing for him is keeping him on the field….He has changed some of his training regimens over the last year, and that seems to have helped. We’re hoping and optimistic that we can help keep him healthy,” Stearns said.

Injury Notes: Cano, Chirinos, Sanchez, Suter

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Robinson Cano went 3-for-3 in the Mets’ 13-2 win over the Pirates today, though the veteran infielder’s big day was tarnished by a left hamstring strain.  Cano had to be removed from the game after suffering the injury while running the bases during a fourth-inning single.  An MRI is scheduled for Monday, and it seems likely that Cano will face the third injured-list stint of the season due to his left leg — a pair of quad injuries sidelined the veteran second baseman earlier in the year.  While Cano is still hitting only .252/.295/.415 over 346 PA this season, he was in the midst of a hot streak at the plate, as Sunday marked his fourth consecutive multi-hit game.

We’ve already had quite a bit of injury news from around the game today, and here are updates on some other situations…

  • Yonny Chirinos’ start was cut short after five innings and 63 pitches today due to right middle finger inflammation.  Chirinos will undergo tests on Monday, though the Rays right-hander told MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters that he doesn’t think his finger is a major concern.  Today’s outing boosted Chirinos to a 3.62 ERA and 7.82 K/9 (against just a 1.99 BB/9) over 126 2/3 innings this season, as Chirinos has increasingly been used in a traditional starting pitching role rather than as the “bulk pitcher” behind an opener.  Chirinos’ emergence has helped a Rays rotation that has continued to rely heavily on openers and bullpen games, particularly with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow both on the injured list.
  • Gary Sanchez is tentatively scheduled to return to the Yankees’ lineup during their series with the Blue Jays from August 8-11, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweets.  Sanchez is on the verge of beginning a rehab assignment, in the wake of a left groin strain that sent him to the IL on July 24.  At the time of the injury, Sanchez was suffering through a brutal slump that had seen him post only a .370 OPS over his previous 93 plate appearances, which dropped his season slash line to .229/.299/.508 over 328 PA.
  • After beginning a minor league rehab assignment for the Brewers’ rookie league affiliate, left-hander Brent Suter will continue the process at Double-A, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  Suter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2017 and is still hopeful of returning to the hill for the Brewers before the season is over.  The soft-tossing Suter posted a 3.91 ERA, 3.54 K/BB rate, and 7.2 K/9 over 204 2/3 innings for Milwaukee from 2016-18, overcoming his lack of velocity by becoming a master at generating soft contact from opposing batters.

Mets Claim Donnie Hart

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The Mets have claimed lefty Donnie Hart off waivers from Milwaukee and optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse, the team reports.

Hart, a longtime Oriole, spent much of this season with Triple-A San Antonio, where he posted a 4.10 ERA/4.29 FIP with a 55.4% grounder rate in 37 1/3 IP. Like most low-slot lefties, Hart’s been much better against same-side bats (.312 career wOBA against, compared to .334 against righties), though he’s walked nearly four of them per nine over his career. The lefty’s set down just 5.83 men per nine in 88 career big-league innings, and relies heavily on his 87 MPH sinker to generate grounders for his outs.

It’s possible Hart will soon displace the ineffective Luis Avilan as the second lefty in the Mets’ pen, though judging by the team’s high-leverage deployment of the eight-year vet, it seems higher on him than most. Lefty Justin Wilson makes up the other half of the contingent, though he can be hardly counted on to throw strikes, and fielder-independent metrics (4.66 FIP, -0.1 fWAR) haven’t been fans of his performance to date.

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