Mets Rumors

Latest On Trade Interest In Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2018 at 12:36pm CDT

12:36pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the Marlins’ asking price on Realmuto is viewed by other clubs as “staggering.” Though Realmuto has less control remaining than he did last offseason, he’s coming off a better year and the asking price on him has actually risen from last winter, per Olney.

9:54am: There are as many as 10 teams showing some degree of trade interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who also notes that Miami’s lofty asking price isn’t likely to drop anytime soon. The Astros are one of the many teams in the Realmuto market, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), but to this point they’ve insisted that either outfielder Kyle Tucker or right-hander Forrest Whitley be at the center of the return. Both players are considered to be among the 10 to 15 best prospects in all of baseball. Morosi adds that the Braves are “actively looking for a catcher,” but the Marlins would prefer not to deal Realmuto within the division.

Miami’s asking price in talks with the Astros somewhat mirrors their previous ask from the division-rival Nationals; Washington has been known to have interest in Realmuto for the past year, but reports have indicated that the starting point in any talks last winter was one of two prized young outfielders: Victor Robles or 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up Juan Soto. The Nats are reported to be on the lookout for a catcher themselves, but the continued high asking price and Miami’s reported preference to deal him away from the NL East are both working against that outcome. The same can be said of the Mets, who are also in the market for catching help this winter.

The Marlins’ hefty asking price in Realmuto negotiations is perfectly justified, as the 27-year-old has improved with each big league season since debuting in 2014 and is now, arguably, the best all-around catcher in baseball. A lower back injury shelved him for the first month of the 2018 season, but he returned with a flourish, batting .277/.340/.484 with a career-high 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto also halted a whopping 38 percent of attempted stolen bases against him.

A trade of Realmuto shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however. While agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball recently made a point to publicly declare that Realmuto won’t sign an extension in Miami and that he expects a trade this winter, it should be noted that Berry and Realmuto requested a trade last winter on multiple occasions — only for Realmuto to remain in Miami. But Realmuto does have only two seasons of club control remaining before he hits free agency, and it’d be perfectly defensible to take the position that his trade value will never be higher than it is this offseason. He’s among the game’s best catchers, if not the premier catcher in MLB, and can be controlled for two seasons at a total rate of less than $20MM. He’s among the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball at present, and any package for him should begin with at least one elite prospect and/or a young big leaguer Miami can control for the next half decade or so.

Padres Showing Interest In Noah Syndergaard

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2018 at 11:31am CDT

After a failed pursuit of Noah Syndergaard this past July, the Padres remain interested in acquiring the right-hander from the Mets, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Friars “are expected” to be more aggressive in their pursuit this time around.

To be clear, there’s not yet any indication that the Mets have any intention of trading Syndergaard. New general manager Brodie Van Wagenen spoke of a desire to return to contention when he was introduced earlier this month. Van Wagenen vowed to be active in the free agent market. Reports have suggested that the Mets will pursue an extension with Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. All of that points to a win-now mentality, and trading Syndergaard, at first glance, would seemingly fly in the face of that line of thinking.

It’s at least possible, though, to utilize Syndergaard as a means of acquiring controllable, MLB-ready pieces to plug into other areas of need on the roster. A healthy version of Syndergaard is among the game’s best pitchers and is an incredibly valuable asset to any club aiming to contend. But the Mets have numerous holes throughout the roster and a relatively thin farm system. The notion that teams operate as strict “buyers” or “sellers” has long been flawed, and it’s at least conceivable that the Mets could pursue free-agent upgrades while simultaneously dealing away a valuable MLB piece for multiple big league assets with greater club control.

The interest is notable, too, from the Padres’ vantage point. San Diego may not yet be ready to contend in 2019, but the very fact that general manager A.J. Preller is exploring the idea of cashing in some of his vaunted minor league depth to acquire rotation help seems to be a continuation of the thinking that led to last winter’s signing of Eric Hosmer. The Padres’ lengthy rebuild is at least nearing its terminus, and plugging in some pieces who can help both in 2019 and in 2020-21 — the likely target for a return to contention — may well be the next step in the process. The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee recently reported that the Padres are eyeing starters young enough to be in their prime in that 2020-21 window, and Syndergaard assuredly fits the bill.

Syndergaard, 26, is under team control for another three seasons and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM next season. He’s spent substantial time on the disabled list across the past two seasons but been legitimately excellent in 184 2/3 innings when healthy: 3.02 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 50.4 percent ground-ball rate, 2.56 FIP.

Those three remaining seasons of control, however, mean there’s no reason for Van Wagenen and the front office to feel compelled to move Syndergaard. Even if there’s no immediate desire or optimism regarding a Syndergaard extension, keeping him and deGrom together for at least the next two seasons gives the Mets a formidable rotation nucleus around which to build. And with Zack Wheeler set to hit the open market next winter while Steven Matz also deals with perennial injury issues, there’s an argument that keeping Syndergaard is crucial to the Mets’ plans beyond the ’19 season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/16/18

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2018 at 8:52am CDT

Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…

The Mets announced yesterday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Ryan O’Rourke to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The 30-year-old spent parts of the 2015-16 seasons with the Twins, pitching to a combined 4.98 ERA with 48 strikeouts and 25 walks in 47 innings of work. It’s a small sample (80 plate appearances), but O’Rourke has rendered opposing lefties utterly helpless in the Majors, yielding a .134/.244/.239 batting line. Right-handers have posted a less palatable .250/.350/.390 line against him in 118 PAs. O’Rourke spent the 2018 season in the Orioles organization but pitched just 14 1/3 innings across four minor league levels as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. Encouragingly, O’Rourke allowed just two earned runs with a 21-to-1 K/BB ratio in the Baltimore organization.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom

By Matt Swartz | November 15, 2018 at 9:28pm CDT

Over the next couple weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

The most interesting arbitration case of 2019 is probably Jacob deGrom. The arbitration system is an antiquated method of player compensation. While teams on the free agent market bid based on innovative stats, other numbers that reflect more accurate player valuations, and detailed scouting assessments, the arbitration system still uses stats like wins, saves, and RBI that teams have since discarded in their player evaluation. The stats remain important because a couple hundred players become eligible for arbitration every year, and everyone knows what criteria the system uses.

But arbitration also rewards hardware. An MVP or Cy Young Award can weigh heavily on the ultimate salary a player will take home, and until recently those awards were often based on antiquated statistics like wins. The press was a few steps behind front offices in innovation—after all, that’s probably how it should be.

All these differing forces crash into each other in 2019, as deGrom enters his third year of arbitration eligibility with a mere 10-9 record, but a Cy Young Award. And it was not just a squeaker he won without real competition —he got all but one first place vote in a year where Max Scherzer won 18 games, had a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 300 hitters. Aaron Nola won 17 games this year with a 2.37 ERA too. There were clearly other contenders, but deGrom won thanks to a more knowledgeable press base that eschewed wins and focused on his sensational overall performance.

Arbitration still uses wins, however. And that could easily downgrade deGrom. In fact, my model—which is backward looking by design, asking what raises players have gotten historically with similar statistics—sees deGrom earning a mere $5.5 million raise, which would bring him up to a $12.9 million salary. Back in 2014, Scherzer himself won a Cy Young with a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA, striking out 240 in 214.1 innings. That got him an $8.8 million raise, a record for third time eligible starting pitchers which still stands today. The eleven fewer wins are the main reason the model is more skeptical of deGrom. After all, the strikeouts and innings are similar and deGrom’s ERA was a full point lower.

The model could easily miss here. If a panel decides to ignore wins like the Cy Young voters did, it could easily give deGrom a $9 or $10 million raise (and somewhere around a $17 million salary), possibly setting off a new wave of arbitration cases that could simultaneously give arbitration-eligible pitchers salaries more in line with their relative value, all while forcing the unfortunate arbitration salary modelers of this world to retool their models!

Of course, maybe the model is just right. Maybe the Mets will be able to persuade a panel — or, more likely, persuade CAA Sports (the agency that only recently employed new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen) that a panel would be persuaded — that wins will be valued as they have in the past, substantially harming deGrom’s argument. In that case, we would need to look for pitchers with very low win totals and very low ERAs. Only a few names surface.

By far the most interesting is Jeff Samardzija. In 2015, Samardzija went 7-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings, and earned a $4.34 million raise. That seems like an absolute floor for deGrom, who clearly bested Samardzija on every major statistic—even wins. Plus, that was four years ago and is probably a little stale.

There are not even that many very low ERA seasons to look at. Cole Hamels got a $5.5 million raise seven years ago with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA. The model is essentially predicting that deGrom gets Hamels’ raise despite the staleness of that case, and despite the fact that deGrom topped Hamels in every category but wins.

Perhaps another interesting comparable could be David Price, who went 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015. The most notable aspect of his case though, is the fact that his tally of 271 strikeouts is quite similar to deGrom’s 269. Probably the most compelling aspect of Price’s case, however, was his accumulation of 248.1 innings. That tops deGrom by over thirty frames. Price’s $5.75 million raise could be argued as a ceiling on that front as well. There is a key difference cutting in the other direction, of course, in the form of the extra 1.5 earned runs Price allowed per nine innings.

Whatever deGrom gets, he is sure to set an interesting precedent going forward. Will arbitration panels stop paying as much attention to wins? How will they consider extremely low ERAs? How will Cy Young Awards come into play? The most interesting case of 2019 probably has some light to shine on these questions.

Jacob deGrom To Remain With CAA

By Steve Adams | November 15, 2018 at 2:50pm CDT

As recently as last night, Mets ace Jacob deGrom told reporters that he’d yet to settle on who his new agent will be in the wake of Brodie Van Wagenen’s appointment as the Mets’ general manager. That decision now looks to have been made, as SNY’s Andy Martino reports that deGrom will remain with CAA Baseball (Van Wagenen’s former agency), where he’ll be represented by agent Jeff Berry (Twitter link).

Van Wagenen, Berry, and Nez Balelo had shared responsibilities for running CAA, so the recent change at the top left the latter two men as co-heads of the agency. While deGrom had the right to speak with other agencies (and presumably did so) after Van Wagenen fully divested himself of all ties to CAA, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that deGrom’s decision was made because he valued the stability of remaining with the only agency he’s known since being drafted.

If and when the Mets do broach the subject of an extension with deGrom and Berry, Van Wagenen’s involvement in the process will be limited. At the time of his introduction to the New York media, Van Wagenen was asked about a potential conflict of interest when negotiating against deGrom and other Mets clients in arbitration settings. COO Jeff Wilpon fielded the question (link via the Post’s Dan Martin), saying that Van Wagenen’s contract has “provisions … to deal with any conflicts of interest.” Asked specifically about a long-term deal for deGrom, Wilpon responded:

“We didn’t discuss specifics on any one player like that. I think [deGrom] is to be determined and Brodie is going to have to recuse himself from some of those discussions. He will have to set an overall tone for the organization, which way he wants us to go, and then we’ll have to have some others be responsible for doing the actual contract.”

Beyond that quote, Martino further tweets that Van Wagenen indeed “must recuse himself” from any talks with deGrom, although contract situations centering on any of Van Wagenen’s former clients will likely face some scrutiny in the short term. While concerns surrounding the matter might fade in the second, third and fourth seasons of Van Wagenen’s reported four-year contract, it’s fair to assume that he presently has knowledge of his former clients’ interests that would not be privy to the standard general manager. The precise manner in which Van Wagenen’s limitations would be enforced, to this point, isn’t clearly laid out, but the fact that deGrom is now being represented by Van Wagenen’s former partner figures to further place the situation under a microscope when negotiations begin.

The minor shift in deGrom’s representation has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom Win Cy Young Awards

By Steve Adams | November 14, 2018 at 5:52pm CDT

Rays left-hander Blake Snell and Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom have won the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced on Wednesday night.

Snell received 17 of the 30 first-place votes, with the other 13 first-place nods going to Astros ace Justin Verlander. In the end, Snell narrowly edged out Verlander on the weighted ballot system, with 169 total points to Verlander’s 154. Cleveland’s Corey Kluber finished a distant third, followed by Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Blake Treinen, Edwin Diaz and Luis Severino, in that order (full voting breakdown here).

As for deGrom, his closest competition was Washington right-hander Max Scherzer, though in the end, voting didn’t prove to be close. DeGrom toppled Scherzer in a landslide, taking home 29 of the 30 first-place votes (with Scherzer securing the other). Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Colorado’s Kyle Freeland finished third and fourth, while Patrick Corbin, Miles Mikolas, Josh Hader, Mike Foltynewicz and Jon Lester rounded out the voting (full breakdown here).

Snell, a former top prospect, broke out in his first full season as a big leaguer and thrust himself into the ranks of the elite with a dominant 2018 campaign. The No. 52 overall pick by Tampa Bay back in 2011, Snell solidified himself as an MLB-caliber starter last season with 24 starts of 4.04 ERA ball, but he overpowered opponents in 2018, pitching to a 1.89 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 31 starts. His 180 1/3 innings trailed Verlander’s 214, but Snell’s per-inning dominance proved to be enough for him to take home tonight’s hardware. No pitcher in baseball tallied more than Snell’s 21 victories.

Looking forward, while the Rays are more experimental with pitching roles than any club in the league, there’s little doubt that Snell will be handled like a traditional front-of-the-rotation workhorse. Soon to turn 26, Snell is under club control for four more seasons and won’t even reach arbitration eligibility until next winter. One can only imagine that the Rays would love to lock Snell up to a long-term pact, but a historically dominant campaign has unequivocally raised the asking price for the newest Tampa Bay ace.

DeGrom has received Cy Young votes in two prior seasons but had never finished in the top five. With an MLB-best 1.70 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 217 innings this past season. deGrom can now add a Cy Young trophy to a list of accolades that also includes 2014 Rookie of the Year honors and a pair of All-Star nods.

The Cy Young victory for deGrom only further serves as a data point that voters have increasingly moved away from placing any real value on a pitcher’s win-loss record when assessing his value; for all of his individual dominance in 2018, deGrom received virtually no run support and was saddled with a 10-9 record that was far from indicative of his consistent excellence.

His future is a bit less certain than that of tonight’s co-winner, as deGrom is under the Mets’ control for only another two seasons. While he’s previously expressed interest in signing a long-term deal with the Mets, deGrom’s agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, was the surprising pick to be named the new general manager of the Mets. He’ll need to determine a new representative before any extension talks can begin in earnest, as Van Wagenen has fully severed ties to all clients and all duties from his former agency, CAA Baseball.

For the time being, deGrom will take his Cy Young season to the negotiating table in arbitration as he negotiates what should be a sizable raise over 2018’s $7.4MM salary. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects deGrom to earn $12.9MM this winter.

Mets Working To Resolve David Wright Insurance/Roster Situation

By Jeff Todd | November 14, 2018 at 8:54am CDT

There’s less at stake for the division-rival Mets, but they too face an upcoming date of note for resolving a financial matter. As Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports, the wind-down of the David Wright contract is not quite as complete as was generally supposed. The Mets stand to receive coverage for three-quarters of the $27MM left on Wright’s deal, but there’s one wrinkle. While his playing career is now over, Wright remains on the club’s 40-man roster … even as the deadline for protecting players from the Rule 5 draft approaches (November 20th). Because he was activated late last year for a brief farewell, the first 59 games of the 2019 season are, by the terms of the insurance policy, not covered. And the club still has not worked out a settlement that will enable it to trim Wright from the roster (he otherwise must remain on it for the team to collect) and thereby open up a roster spot to utilize as the organization sees fit.

Mets Notes: deGrom, Riggleman

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 2:18pm CDT

Now that Brodie Van Wagenen has gone from being Jacob deGrom’s agent to his employer as the Mets’ new GM, the transition has been “still a little confusing for me, I guess,” deGrom admitted to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. DeGrom (and Van Wagenen’s other clients at CAA) were kept updated throughout Van Wagenen’s negotiations about joining the Mets just so nobody felt caught off-guard by the former agent’s surprising career change, and deGrom said that “I’ve had conversations with him since [the hiring], and they’ve been good.” There haven’t yet been any talks about a contract extension between deGrom and the Mets, though most teams usually wait until later in the offseason to discuss in-house contracts. For his part, deGrom reiterated that he enjoys playing for the Mets and would be open to talking about a long-term deal. “If that was something that they wanted to do, and me and [my wife] Stacey felt like it was the right move for us, then we’d be willing to definitely explore that,” deGrom said. The ace right-hander is controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season, and it will be particularly interesting to see how extension talks develop, given deGrom and Van Wagenen’s shared history.
In other Mets news, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently tweeted that Jim Riggleman will interview for the team’s open bench coach position sometime this week. Riggleman served as the Reds’ interim manager for much of the 2018 season, and he would add over three decades of coaching and managerial experience to Mickey Callaway’s staff. SNY TV’s Andy Martino offers the alternative suggestion that the Mets should consider former Phillies manager Pete Mackanin as bench coach, arguing that Mackanin is more well-versed in how to apply modern analytics to in-game management.

Hypothetical Ways Mets Could Spend This Winter

By TC Zencka | November 12, 2018 at 11:03am CDT

The Athletic’s Tim Britton proposes in a four-part hypothetical how the Mets could turn themselves into a contender this winter. Britton’s Plan A includes signing Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, a couple of elite relievers and investing in depth. In a purely theoretical context, there’s not much to argue with there. Practically speaking, the subtext suggests that the Mets have holes at both the top and bottom of their roster, with the left side of the infield and bullpen being particular areas of concern that could use an upgrade. Joel Sherman of the New York Post also advocates for a winter spending spree, though he focuses more on the why than Britton, whose focus is the how. The Mets don’t have any payroll commitments beyond 2020, so taking a chance with a megacontract player like Machado isn’t inconceivable, but one player doesn’t usually swing the pendulum. To Britton’s point, there are 520 minor-league free agents available, and the Mets, as well as other teams, should take the opportunity to try and find the next Max Muncy. Other names listed as potential depth targets include Jordy Mercer, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, Drew Pomeranz or even a trade target like the Brewers’ Keon Broxton.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Connor Byrne | November 11, 2018 at 11:07am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Mets suffered through their second straight disastrous season in 2018, leading to major changes atop their baseball department. General manager Sandy Alderson stepped away in June to battle a recurrence of cancer, which proved to be the end of a tenure that was occasionally fruitful but recently disappointing.

Seeking a replacement for Alderson, the Mets mostly interviewed candidates who were already executives at the major league level. In the end, though, they made the unexpected decision to name longtime player agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their GM.

Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon were already plenty familiar with Van Wagenen, who counted big-name Mets Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes among his clients when he was with CAA Sports. Now that Van Wagenen is on the Mets’ side, Fred Wilpon believes his “high character, blend of analytics, scouting and development ideas” will help the franchise escape the doldrums.

Guaranteed Contracts

Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $58.5MM through 2020
David Wright, 3B: $27MM through 2020 (insurance covers all but $6.75MM)
Jay Bruce, OF/1B: $26MM through 2020
Jason Vargas, LHP: $10MM through 2020 (includes $2MM buyout of 2020 club option)
Juan Lagares, OF: $9.5MM through 2020 (includes $500K buyout of 2020 club option)
Todd Frazier, 3B: $9MM through 2019
Anthony Swarzak, RP: $8MM through 2019

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Jacob deGrom – $12.9MM
Noah Syndergaard – $5.9MM
Zack Wheeler – $5.3MM
Wilmer Flores – $4.7MM
Michael Conforto – $4.4MM
Travis d’Arnaud – $3.7MM
Steven Matz – $3.0MM
Kevin Plawecki – $1.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Flores, d’Arnaud

Free Agents

AJ Ramos, Devin Mesoraco, Jerry Blevins, Jose Reyes, Austin Jackson, Jose Lobaton, Rafael Montero, Phillip Evans, Jamie Callahan

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets payroll outlook]

The Mets started 2018 a red-hot 11-1, but they began an epic nosedive soon after and sat 16 games under .500 at the All-Star break. By then, New York’s chances of contending were out the window, and the question was whether it was going to retain the deGrom/Syndergaard duo past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. That same month, the outspoken Van Wagenen proclaimed the Mets should trade deGrom if they weren’t going to extend him. Ultimately, the Mets didn’t reach an extension with deGrom or deal him or Syndergaard. Depending on the Mets’ GM hire, both deGrom and Syndergaard could have been trade candidates this offseason. But with Van Wagenen now calling the shots, the team’s not primed to kickstart a rebuild by parting with either of its superstar hurlers. Rather, according to Van Wagenen, the Mets “will win now,” and they “expect to be in on every free agent.”

In light of Van Wagenen’s free-agent declaration, visions of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may have been dancing in the heads of the most optimistic of Mets fans. However, even though the Mets play in the majors’ biggest market and have zero dollars on their books past 2020, it’s hard to imagine them reeling in either. For one, there’s no word on how much the Mets are willing to increase their payroll over last year’s $150MM-plus Opening Day sum. Landing Harper or Machado would require a sizable jump over that figure, as the Mets’ payroll is already nearing $135MM heading into 2019. Secondly, the Mets have never even doled out a $150MM guarantee, yet both Harper and Machado could push or exceed $400MM on their next deals.

While Harper and Machado seem likely to be out of New York’s price range, the club could still come away from free agency having made significant improvements. There are more realistic targets out there, including for the Mets’ bullpen, which is a focal point for the team this offseason. Per Van Wagenen, the Mets are seeking “multiple” relievers to upgrade over last year’s bullpen – a unit that was among the majors’ worst. As things stand, right-handers Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Drew Smith are the only current Mets relievers who were remotely effective over a fair amount innings in 2018 (lefty Daniel Zamora also impressed, but he did so over a mere nine frames). There’s a lot of work ahead as a result, though there are also several proven relievers available on the open market.

Click to continue reading…

Among free-agent bullpen pieces, veteran closer Craig Kimbrel is poised to secure the richest contract (MLBTR predicts $70MM over five years). The Mets make sense for Kimbrel when considering their need for late-game help. That said, it’s debatable whether the Mets should allocate that type of money to a reliever – especially considering Van Wagenen isn’t married to having a traditional closer. Plus, because Boston issued Kimbrel a qualifying offer, signing him would cost the Mets more than just a boatload of money. They’d also have to surrender their second-round pick in 2019 and $500K in international spending room.

Fortunately for New York, Kimbrel’s far from the only viable closer type who’s looking for a job. David Robertson (a former Van Wagenen client), Jeurys Familia (an ex-Met) and Adam Ottavino would also be fits for the club. And going by MLBTR’s projections, the Mets may be able to get two of them for less than Kimbrel’s next deal. Beyond that trio, fellow relievers Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria, Bud Norris, Brad Brach and Jesse Chavez are also among MLBTR’s top 50 free agents. Notably, Miller and Allen are familiar with Mets manager Mickey Callaway from his days as Cleveland’s pitching coach. Recent indications suggest the Mets are at least interested in Miller, but even if nothing comes together with him, it’s obvious there will be other high-end options for the club if it’s truly willing to throw money at its relief woes.

Although the Mets’ bullpen is in dire need of aid, the same isn’t true of their rotation. DeGrom, who could be on the cusp of winning his first NL Cy Young Award, and Syndergaard are about as good as a one-two punch gets. As of now, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas (another ex-Van Wagenen client) figure to round out the rest of the starting five. But even if the Mets expect to roll with that quintet, they could at least stand to add better depth.

Syndergaard’s coming off back-to-back injury-shortened seasons; Wheeler wasn’t the picture of health from 2015-17; injuries have regularly beset Matz, who has never thrown more than 154 innings in a season; and Vargas was both terrible and injured in 2018. There’s little in the way of possible answers beyond those five, with Lugo and Corey Oswalt (he of the 5.85 ERA/5.70 FIP in 64 2/3 innings last year) representing the Mets’ leading candidates to serve as their sixth starter. Lugo has offered decent production as a starter during his career, but using him in that role would deprive the Mets’ already questionable bullpen of an important reliever.

Shifting to the position player side, it’s worth wondering whom the Mets’ pitchers will primarily throw to in 2019. Van Wagenen said Friday that New York’s “covered” behind the plate, where it has a pair of controllable major leaguers in Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. The oft-injured d’Arnaud looks like a trade candidate or non-tender possibility, though, and Plawecki hasn’t really done enough to claim a starting role since he debuted in 2015. Unsurprisingly, the Mets are seeking catching help on the open market, having shown reported interest in the position’s top two free agents – Yasmani Grandal (a QO recipient) and Wilson Ramos – as well as Martin Maldonado. Even though Maldonado would be a far less exciting pickup than Grandal or Ramos, he’d at least provide a defensive boost over what Plawecki and now-free agent Devin Mesoraco gave the Mets in 2018.

In general, defense was a problem for last season’s Mets, who finished 27th in the majors in both DRS (minus-77) and UZR (minus-32.1). The only regular who earned plus marks in each of those categories was third baseman Todd Frazier, though he fell flat as a hitter in the first season of a two-year, $17MM free-agent contract that his ex-agent, Van Wagenen, secured for him last February. Still, barring a sizable splash in free agency (Josh Donaldson, to be specific), Frazier’s the best candidate to start at third for next year’s Mets.

Beyond Frazier, the rest of the Mets’ infield is a mostly unproven group. His left-side cohort, shortstop Amed Rosario, did make some offensive strides from his 2017 debut, but he had a horrid year in the field (minus-16 DRS, minus-5.2 UZR). It appears he’ll start at the position as a 23-year-old in 2019, though, unless Machado actually takes his talents to Queens.

Rosario’s double-play partner could be Jeff McNeil, who flourished in the minors in 2018 and did the same in the majors after a late-July promotion. The 26-year-old racked up 248 plate appearances and slashed .329/.381/.471, good for a 137 wRC+, while rarely striking out (9.7 percent). On the negative side, the power McNeil displayed last year in the minors didn’t transfer (.142 ISO, three home runs), he posted a .359 BABIP that will be tough to sustain, and his xwOBA (.322) lagged miles behind his real wOBA (.368). Of course, none of that’s to say McNeil can’t be part of the solution for the Mets going forward. He’s currently “penciled in” to start at the keystone for the club next year, according to Van Wagenen, but perhaps it would be unwise to rule out a pursuit of free-agent help. The market’s teeming with veteran second basemen, including Marwin Gonzalez, who has drawn the Mets’ interest, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported Thursday.

As a super-utility player, much of Gonzalez’s value comes from the fact that he can play all over the diamond. That includes first base, another potential area of interest for New York. If the season began today, the Mets would be choosing between a Jay Bruce/Wilmer Flores or Dominic Smith/Flores platoon. Changes may be coming there, however. With Cespedes set to miss a large portion of 2019, Bruce could open the year as a corner outfielder. The Mets may non-tender Flores, who has dealt with knee problems. Likewise, Smith’s no lock to remain in the organization. Still just 23, Smith was a top-100 prospect as recently as 2017, but he was woeful at the Triple-A and major league levels in 2018.

Thanks to Smith’s struggles, fellow youngster Peter Alonso (also 23, and now the 58th-ranked prospect at MLB.com) is the Mets’ new hope for a long-term answer at first. Alonso’s a potential “impact player,” according to Van Wagenen, who has suggested the Mets are open to having him on their roster at the outset of 2019. If true, it could prevent the Mets from doing much of anything at first base in the offseason, even though their other options don’t inspire much confidence. Most of the free-agent choices at the position don’t look overly enticing, and if Alonso’s knocking on the door, the Mets may decide it’s not worthwhile to trade from a below-average farm system for someone like Justin Smoak or C.J. Cron.

In the outfield, while Cespedes may not factor in at all next season, there’s no question the Mets still have two cornerstones in Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. It’s just a matter of where they’ll line up. Owing in part to the season-ending toe surgery defensive stalwart Juan Lagares underwent in May, Conforto ended up seeing more time in center field than any other Met. He was no match for Lagares in the field, though, managing minus-8 DRS and minus-4 UZR across 501 innings. Nimmo (minus-2 DRS, minus-2.8 UZR in 350 innings) and current free agent Austin Jackson also garnered negative marks. Those numbers won’t necessarily preclude the Mets from using either Nimmo or Conforto next year, though, at least when Lagares isn’t in the lineup. Historically, the righty-hitting Lagares has been useful against left-handed pitchers. When he sits versus same-handed hurlers, the Mets could shift Conforto or Nimmo to center and use someone else (Bruce? A free-agent or trade acquisition?) in the unoccupied corner. The aforementioned Marwin Gonzalez, with his switch-hitting ability and his experience as a left fielder, would be a logical choice in that scenario.

Alternatively, if the Mets are in an especially bold mood, they could aim higher than Gonzalez and try for the premier free-agent center fielder, A.J. Pollock, another QO recipient. His addition would enable the Mets to use Conforto and Nimmo as full-time corner starters and relegate Lagares to the bench. Pollock also happens to be a right-handed hitter, which the Mets want more of for their outfield, Van Wagenen revealed this week (via Tim Britton of The Athletic; subscription required). However, signing Pollock would lead to a logjam of full-time outfield starters upon Cespedes’ return, whenever it comes, and would give the Mets another expensive 30-something with a long injury history. In the end, signing a Cameron Maybin type or pursuing a trade for the Brewers’ Keon Broxton or the Nationals’ Michael A. Taylor could be more realistic possibilities.

Speaking of the Nats, they’re among the NL East teams the Mets have looked up at in recent years. But Washington joined the Mets in serving as 2018 disappointments, and the Nationals’ roster will take a notable hit if Harper walks away in free agency. Those two teams are now trying to overtake the reigning NL East champion Braves, as are the Phillies, while the Marlins are continuing to rebuild. There’s clearly no dominant club among that quintet, meaning the Mets may find themselves in the thick of the division race next year if Van Wagenen pushes the right buttons in his first offseason as an executive. The Mets closed last season on a high note, going 38-30 after the All-Star break, and with deGrom, Syndergaard, Nimmo and Conforto leading the team’s core, it’s evident Van Wagenen didn’t walk into a hopeless situation.

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