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Quick Hits: Free Agents, Heyward, Cespedes, Greinke

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In the latest edition of his 10 Degrees column, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan looks at what some of the offseason’s top free agents are likely to fetch on the open market after conversations with two GMs, two agents and two front office personnel executives.  All agree that David Price is a lock to receive more than $200MM though contract predictions fluctuate with other players.  Chris Davis, for instance, inspired guesses that ranged from a $60MM deal to a $150MM deal.  I agree with Passan that guessing on the high side is the better option, since power bats are at a premium; nine figures seems the minimum for Davis’ next contract.  Here’s some more from Passan’s column and elsewhere around baseball…

  • Jason Heyward “will be the bellwether of this market,” as his unique case as a player who brings youth (26 years old) and elite defense to free agency rather than an elite bat will set the tone for other signings.  His youth could play a different role in the contract, as one GM thinks Heyward could sign an eight-year, $175MM deal with an opt-out clause after four years.  This way Heyward could hit free agency again when he’s only 30 years old and in good position for another major contract.  Passan notes that Heyward is represented by Excel Sports Management, and Excel’s Casey Close has negotiated high-profile opt-out clauses in recent contracts for clients Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (though it’s worth mentioning that Heyward isn’t represented by Close himself).
  • Two free agents who were dealt at the trade deadline have greatly harmed (Johnny Cueto) and helped (Yoenis Cespedes) their chances at a major deal this winter due to their performances with their new clubs.  Passan notes that Mets ownership finds itself in a Catch-22 with Cespedes.  Letting him leave would enrage a fanbase that already feels the club doesn’t spend enough, yet Cespedes has enough flaws in his game that the Mets could easily find themselves burned by giving him a massive long-term contract.  All six of Passan’s sources feel Cespedes’ market will begin at $125MM and perhaps go as high as $160MM.
  • Zack Greinke’s age will keep him from getting a seven- or eight-year commitment when he opts out of his Dodgers contract, though Passan feels Greinke could look to set a new record for highest average annual value in the form of a five-year, $175MM deal.
  • In his ranking of the five open GM positions in baseball, Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists the Red Sox job as the most appealing given the team’s financial resources, passionate fanbase and existing talent in both the majors and minors.  The downside is that the Boston job carries a particular amount of pressure, and a new GM may not have autonomy with Dave Dombrowski leading the baseball operations department.  Sherman lists the pros and cons of the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Angels and Brewers openings, though as one executive puts it, “There is no perfect job. If you wait for the perfect one, you will wait forever….You have to figure out how to accentuate the positives and fix or navigate around the warts.”
  • Former Royals hurler Brian Bannister is the first Red Sox director of pitching analysis and development, a position specifically created by Dombrowski to match Bannister’s unique skill-set.  Peter Gammons, in his latest piece for GammonsDailycom, looks at the work Bannister has already done with Boston’s pitchers in his former capacity as a pro scout, and how Bannister is blending mound experience with knowledge gleaned from analytical data.
  • Matt Harvey is scheduled to make his next start against the Yankees on Sunday, a Mets team source tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.  Harvey was only supposed to start once more after that, though manager Terry Collins told Ackert and other reporters that workload wouldn’t do enough to keep the ace sharp for the playoffs.  “We got to get him on the mound a little more consistently,” Collins said.  “Every 12 days is not a good scenario….We have to have Matt Harvey ready to pitch.  He doesn’t need to have 15 days off. We got to have him ready.”  The Mets could use Harvey on regular turns in the rotation but just on limited innings and pitch counts in each outing, with a reliever ready to “piggyback” the rest of the outing.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Cespedes, GM Openings, Offseason Decisions

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The Mets expect that they’ll receive calls on righty Matt Harvey, but have no intentions of discounting his trade value based on the recent shutdown controversy, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Harvey is reportedly displeased with some statements from the front office, per Heyman, though it’s far from clear whether there will be any long-term ramifications from the flare-up.

That’s just one of many interesting notes in a column that is chock full of information. Here are some more notable items:

  • Also in the news recently, of course, is outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who has thrived with the Mets and just tweaked his contract to make a re-signing possible. Heyman says that the movement on that front was generated by Cespedes’s side, with the team readily agreeing to the proposal. Steve Adams and I discussed this on Thursday’s edition of the MLBTR Podcast, generally agreeing that he’s unlikely to return despite that agreement given other needs and the presence of Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares, and Michael Cuddyer. But Heyman hears that New York is “expected to make a serious play” for the soon-to-be free agent. Certainly, that’s an important open market storyline to watch this fall and winter. Despite the presence of several other highly-regarded players on the coming market, Heyman says a deal of $175MM (or even more) for the Cuban star would not be surprising.
  • The Red Sox’ GM hiring appears to be wide open, with Heyman writing that Diamondbacks senior VP of baseball operations De Jon Watson presents one possibility from another organization and AGM Mike Hazen could be an internal option. Other names that have come up include the frequently-mentioned Frank Wren and Brewers VP of amateur scouting Ray Montgomery.
  • There is a “prevailing belief” that Reds GM Walt Jocketty will keep his position, says Heyman, though manager Bryan Price seems somewhat more likely to lose his job after a rough season. On the other hand, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale did suggest today on Twitter that Jocketty could be shifted into an advisory role, with Cincinnati hiring a new general manager.
  • Yankees GM Billy Eppler is seen as the favorite to take the GM position with the Angels, says Heyman. Rangers GM Thad Levine could also get a long look, per the report.
  • The Phillies’ GM position just opened, of course, and Heyman says it will be in high demand among young executives — not only because of Philadelphia’s resources, but because the new general manager could be handed fairly broad authority. Possible names have been filtering out since even before Ruben Amaro Jr. was let go, and Heyman lists Angels AGM Matt Klentak, Giants scouting director John Barr, Royals AGM J.J. Piccolo, and the aforementioned Levine as some of the possibilities.
  • Fans calling for the Braves to replace manager Fredi Gonzalez may not get their wish, says Heyman. Gonzalez is “said to be in no jeopardy,” per the report.
  • The Tigers have a lot of work to do under new GM Al Avila, and Heyman says their “winter wish list” includes an outfielder — possibly Cespedes, though he may be too expensive, along with two starters and several bullpen arms. Detroit expects to plunk down some cash in the offseason, he adds.
  • It’s always seemed likely that the Blue Jays would pick up their $12MM option over veteran righty R.A. Dickey, and Heyman says that is highly likely as things stand. Toronto will also at least attempt to retain lefty David Price, who has obviously been outstanding (even by his lofty standards) since being acquired at the deadline.
  • The Dodgers will likely extend lefty Brett Anderson a qualifying offer. The 27-year-old has been well worth the $10MM that Los Angeles paid him this year, putting up a 3.36 ERA over 158 innings — his highest tally since his rookie campaign way back in 2009. Given his age and the fact that he has a nice platform to work from, it would seem likely that Anderson will decline a QO (if extended), though he’ll face a crowded market.
  • Padres president Mike Dee tells Heyman that the organization is frustrated, but has good relationships in its upper front office and is looking forward rather than looking back at last winter. San Diego will need to make a permanent decision with its field staff, and is said to be undecided on whether to retain interim skipper Pat Murphy.
  • Meanwhile, the Padres are assessing “whether to tweak or completely retool” its roster. Interestingly, Melvin Upton has played well enough that he could end up with a regular role as a platoon partner in center alongside Travis Jankowski. San Diego will face a somewhat difficult decision on whether to make starter Ian Kennedy a qualifying offer, but it appears the organization is leaning towards doing so.

Quick Hits: Andujar, Hoffman, Harvey, Rays

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Former Astros, Cardinal and Athletics right-hander Joaquin Andujar passed away on Tuesday at the age of 62 due to complications stemming from a lengthy battle with diabetes. The four-time All-Star was known as a passionate player that never shied away from showing his emotion on the field. Andjuar twice won 20 or more games in a season and was an integral piece of the Cardinals’ 1982 World Series championship, posting a 2.47 ERA in 265 2/3 innings before going on to allow just four earned runs in 20 postseason innings. Pedro Martinez spoke about how Andujar influenced not only him but an entire generation of Dominican baseball players Tuesday on the MLB Network (video link). Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Joey Nowak paid tribute to Andjuar in a lengthy piece that offers quotes from former teammates, managers and executives who knew Andujar well. We at MLBTR extend our condolences to the friends and family of Andujar as well as all who were impacted by his career.

A few more notes from around the game…

  • ESPN’s Keith Law shares some scouting thoughts from the past week, most notably offering his opinion on Rockies top prospect Jeff Hoffman — the key piece in July’s Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster (ESPN Insider required). Law notes that Hoffman showed a minimal-effort delivery while sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97 mph five times during a five-inning start. However, the fastball has little movement, making it too easy to square up, and Hoffman showed a poor feel for his changeup on the day in question. From a big-picture point of view, Law feels that Hoffman has a lot in common with Jon Gray in that he’s a power arm with great stuff that has yet to show up in his results. Law also discusses Cubs shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres and White Sox righty Spencer Adams, among others.
  • Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes that while Matt Harvey has come under considerable fire due to the recent drama surrounding his innings limit, he’s in no way a quitter or phony. Rather, Harvey is a 26-year-old that it trying to balance his long-term health with his desire to win a championship with the Mets while hearing varying opinions and advice from doctors, his agent, Mets executives, his teammates and fans. He’s in an unenviable position, Martino points out before opining that no one in the situation need be portrayed as a “hero” or as a “villain.”
  • There are few open jobs on the Rays roster heading into the 2015-16 offseason, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, with Asdrubal Cabrera and John Jaso being the club’s primary free agents. That will leave some uncertainty at shortstop, and there’s already uncertainty at catcher, Topkin notes. One way the Rays could plug either hole will be to trade from their rotation depth, and Topkin feels that it’s “likely” the front office will do just that this winter. The Rays have Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Nate Karns, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez, top prospect Blake Snell and, eventually, Alex Cobb as rotation options, giving them an enviable surplus of serviceable arms.

Added To 40-Man Rosters: O’Brien, Stauffer, Hill, Baron, Ramirez

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With Triple-A seasons coming to a close, there’s been another wave of players whose contracts of have been selected to their respective teams’ 40-man rosters. Here’s a list of today’s 40-man moves…

  • The D-Backs announced that they’ve selected the contract of slugging prospect Peter O’Brien. The catcher-turned-outfielder was the key piece that Arizona picked up from the Yankees in last summer’s Martin Prado swap. The 25-year-old O’Brien batted .284/.332/.551 and belted 26 homers this season for Triple-A Reno. The knock on O’Brien has long been his lack of a true position. Arizona seemed to be of the belief that he could remain behind the plate, but that’s no longer the case, as he’s been shifted to the outfield. That thinking led the D-Backs to leave their catching vacancy largely unaddressed this winter, although the midseason acquisition of Welington Castillo has certainly shored things up on that front. Evan Marshall was moved to the 60-day DL to accommodate O’Brien’s addition.
  • The Mets have selected Tim Stauffer’s contract, tweets Adam Rubin of ESPN New York. Stauffer, who can serve in a long relief capacity for manager Terry Collins, began the season with the Twins after signing a one-year, $2.2MM contract as a free agent. The longtime Padres hurler got off to a dreadful start in Minneapolis, though, posting a 6.60 ERA in 15 innings before being released. Stauffer went to indy ball, pitching 16 innings for the Sugar Land Skeeters before the Mets signed him to a minor league deal. He notched a 2.48 ERA in eight Triple-A starts for the Mets.
  • The Red Sox have selected Rich Hill’s contract, as first reported by Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal (Twitter link). The 35-year-old spent parts of three seasons in Boston from 2010-12 and had a 2.83 ERA in 54 innings between the Triple-A affiliates for the Red Sox and Yankees. He also had a brief stop in indy ball this season, pitching well in 11 frames for the Long Island Ducks.
  • The Mariners announced that they’ve selected the contracts of catcher Steven Baron and right-hander J.C. Ramirez. Baron, 24, hit .265/.334/.361 between Double-A and Triple-A this season, catching 28 percent of opposing base stealers. As for Ramirez, the 27-year-old has a strong 2.72 ERA at the Triple-A level this season and also worked to a 4.11 ERA in 15 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks. Seattle picked him up from the D-Backs in exchange for cash considerations in late July. Charlie Furbush was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to clear room for one of the two additions.

Mets, Cespedes Modify Contract Release Clause

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3:57pm: Cespedes’ agents (he is represented by Roc Nation/CAA Sports) were the ones to initiate discussions about amending the clause, tweets Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. As she rightly points out, having his current club involved in offseason bidding can only serve to increase Cespedes’ ultimate price tag.

3:13pm: The Mets have agreed with recently-acquired outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to a modification of the language in his contract that will remove a previous barrier to the team’s ability to re-sign him as a free agent, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.

Previously, the contract called for the employing team (originally, the Athletics) to release him at the expiration of the contract. That would have made Cespedes ineligible for a qualifying offer and would have left his current team with just five days to reach a new agreement upon completion of the World Series. Following that five-day window, the Mets would’ve been ineligible to sign Cespedes until May 15, 2016 under the rules of the collective bargaining agreement. (Put concisely, teams cannot re-sign players they released to a Major League deal until the following May.) In that scenario, Cespedes would not have been able to test his market before negotiating with the Mets, making an agreement difficult to work out.

Under the new agreement, Cespedes will be free to sign with the Mets at any point in the offseason, just as he would any other team. It provides him another possible suitor while leaving the team free to re-sign him on the open market.

While the qualifying offer issue may have posed a barrier to reaching such an arrangement between Cespedes and his most recent team, the Tigers, that is no longer an issue. Because Cespedes was traded in mid-season, the Mets are unable to utilize that rule regardless.

In other words, as things stood, the modification appears to be a win-win for player and team. While neither is any more obligated to the other than was the case previously, it is now certainly feasible for New York to pursue a long-term deal with a player who has delivered outstanding results since coming over at the deadline.

East Notes: Eovaldi, Gee, Black, Phils, Parra

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The Yankees will shut down righty Nate Eovaldi for at least two weeks with elbow inflammation, as WFAN’s Sweeny Murti reports on Twitter. While New York will obviously hope that amount of rest will be sufficient, ESPNNewYork.com’s Andrew Marchand tweets that it’s possible Eovaldi won’t return this year. That would be a significant blow to the Yankees, as the righty has generated solid reviews from ERA estimators and increasingly achieved the results to match. Added in the winter trade that sent Martin Prado to the Marlins, Eovaldi can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

Here are a few more notes from the eastern divisions:

  • With the Triple-A season now concluded, the Mets have apparently elected not to bring back righties Dillon Gee and Vic Black, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com notes (Twitter links). The 29-year-old Gee had long seemed like an obvious September call-up after previously being outrighted, but it seems the relationship has soured somewhat. Because he accepted an outright assignment, Rubin notes, Gee can elect free agency at the end of the year. If he doesn’t, of course, he’s almost certain at this point to be released or non-tendered by the club. As for Black, if he was not worth a 40-man spot now, it’s hard to imagine that the Mets will give him one later this fall to keep him from becoming a minor league free agent.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. explains that he is not yet focused on next summer’s draft, but nevertheless has some ideas about the team’s intentions, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. Philadelphia is not worried about whether or not it lands the top overall pick, says Amaro, and won’t adjust its big league decisions based on any such considerations. As for the draft itself, Amaro offered some general thoughts. “There is some pretty good pitching up top,” he said. “I think we’re going to be pitching intensive. Obviously, we always try to take the best player, but I think our mindset is probably pitching.”
  • Orioles outfielder Gerardo Parra may be able to land a free agent deal in the mold of that of Nick Markakis, opines Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com, but his current team should not value him that highly. As I noted in a recent look at Parra’s free agent case, a four-year deal certainly seems plausible for the still-youthful veteran, though it’s certainly possible too that he could settle for three or take a slightly lower AAV than did Markakis. I tend to agree that Baltimore will not and should not be the team to give out that kind of contract, though that assessment depends upon the team’s still-unclear strategic direction.

Mets Expected To Modify Matt Harvey’s Workload

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9:29pm: GM Sandy Alderson has responded to the USA Today story, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports (Twitter links). “Any plans we have for the rest of the regular season are tentative,” said Alderson. He went on to throw doubt on the notion of a settled strategy for the postseason, saying: “We have not spent any time yet on a ’playoff’ plan. Nothing has been discussed in that regard.”

9:24pm: The Mets have arrived at a plan to limit righty Matt Harvey’s innings down the stretch and into the postseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. GM Sandy Alderson indicated this morning that he and agent Scott Boras were working toward a compromise, as Harvey himself recently said would be the case.

The resolution, it appears, will be for Harvey to start tomorrow against the Nationals and then just make one more regular season start in a bid to keep him to about 182 or 183 regular season frames. He’ll only start in the season’s final week against Washington if the division is still at stake, per the report.

Most interesting, perhaps, is that the roadmap would call for Harvey to start only once per playoff series. Notably, also, the 26-year-old would potentially be placed on a roughly 60-pitch cap for his post-season outings.

In terms of on-field impact, it’s hard to downplay the significance of this modified usage. While New York now holds a commanding five-game lead in the NL East after gutting out a win today, and remains in the driver’s seat, the October limitations seem rather limiting. The Mets will also be looking to manage the workload of rising youngster Noah Syndergaard, and he or another pitcher could theoretically be paired with Harvey at times, but it would obviously be preferable — from a near-term competitive perspective — for the team to turn loose one of the game’s most potent arms without restriction.

From a transactional perspective, agreement between the sides would presumably help to ameliorate any bad feelings about the highly-publicized situation. Harvey is eligible for arbitration for the first time net year and is on track to hit the open market after the 2018 season. With the free-agency-oriented Boras as his agent, it’s long been expected that he would not seriously entertain extension talks, and some have speculated that the apparent discord could lead to a trade. There is little sense, really, in attempting to forecast the long-term relationship, but any compromise would at least appear likely to defuse serious future discord.

NL East Links: Harvey, Ross, Marlins

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In a self-penned piece for The Players’ Tribune, Matt Harvey tried to settle the innings-limit controversy of the last few days by firmly stating that he intends to pitch in the postseason:

“As an athlete, when your surgeon explains to you the risks of exceeding a certain number of innings, it can be alarming. You listen. I love to play baseball and I love winning even more. I would not give that up for anything. I also know I want to be able to play and win for a long time. But there has never been a doubt in my mind: I will pitch in the playoffs. I will be healthy, active and ready to go.

I am communicating with my agent, my doctor, Sandy [Alderson] and the entire Mets organization. I can assure everyone that we’re all on the same page.

Together, we are coming up with a plan to reach an innings limit during the season. It will be a compromise between the doctors and the Mets organization to get me, and the team, to where we need to be for our postseason run.”

Here’s some more from around the NL East…

  • In other innings-limit news, Nationals manager Matt Williams told reporters (including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post) that the team will consider shutting rookie right-hander Joe Ross down for the season.  Ross lasted just 4 1/3 innings in today’s start and both he and Williams admitted that fatigue may have played a role.  Ross has thrown 149 2/3 innings between the majors and minors this season, well beyond his previous professional season high of 122 1/3 IP in 2013.
  • Several Marlins players have expressed displeasure about team management to friends and within the clubhouse, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.  The Marlins’ decision to trade veterans for prospects, GM-turned-manager Dan Jennings’ in-game decisions and the overall belief that Miami “still prioritizes saving money over winning” are three of the players’ main issues.
  • Also from Jackson, he notes that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has been listening to assistant GM Mike Berger, director of pro scouting Jeff McAvoy and others more than he’s been listening to Jennings.  There has been a lot of speculation about what changes are coming to Miami’s baseball operations crew, including whether Jennings will return as GM, take another front office role or perhaps part ways with the team altogether.
  • A.J. Pierzynski has enjoyed playing for the Braves and hopes to return in 2016, he tells MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.  The veteran catcher will be a free agent this winter, and while Atlanta has Christian Bethancourt as its prospective catcher of the future, there have been signs that the club isn’t satisfied with Bethancourt’s development.  There were reports last month that the Braves were also interested in bringing Pierzynski back for another season.  Pierzynski signed a one-year, $2MM deal with Atlanta last winter and has already earned an extra $400K via playing-time bonuses, Bowman notes.

Injury Notes: Harvey, Stanton, Pedroia, Aoki, Susac, Sanchez, Feldman

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The still-brewing shutdown controversy between Matt Harvey and the Mets still has an uncertain conclusion, but there are plenty of incremental updates to share. Noted Tommy John expert Neal ElAttrache, who is said to have consulted with agent Scott Boras on Harvey, spoke about the matter with Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. He explained that there could be a reasonable path for Harvey to throw in the postseason by “spacing out his starts and keeping his arm live, using him if necessary in September to keep him competitive and save some bullets for the postseason.” But ElAttrache also noted that even 180 innings pitched “does start to raise some flags, because now he’s in no man’s land” in comparison to past pitchers recovering from a TJ procedure. Boras, meanwhile, said that both the team and the player want him to continue throwing, and that his concern “is that the medical experts are involved in the process of determining what Matt Harvey can do.”

Here’s more on Harvey and some other injury situations around the game:

  • It remains unclear where things will go from here, but one Mets official indicated to ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin that the team strongly expects to utilize its righty in October (Twitter link). Mike Puma of the New York Post adds on Twitter that Harvey “didn’t anticipate the backlash” and “might have a few second thoughts about his comments” from yesterday. Meanwhile, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Insider link) are among those who have suggested that the current situation could — and, perhaps, should — provide impetus for the team to trade Harvey over the coming winter.
  • Marlins star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton acknowledges that there’s a chance he won’t return this year, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Stanton, who is still trying to work back from a broken hamate bone, is still holding out hopes of a return, and at worst should certainly be at full speed next spring.
  • Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox, meanwhile, could play as soon as Tuesday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. The veteran second baseman has been working back from a hamstring injury.
  • Giants outfielder Nori Aoki is dealing with recurring concussion symptoms that could jeopardize his season, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports. The 33-year-old, who owns a .287/.353/.380 slash and 14 steals over 392 plate appearances on the year, has struggled to remain healthy and productive in the second half. He can be controlled through a $5.5MM club option next year, which looks to be an appealing price tag so long as he is able to recover from the injury.
  • The Giants are also going to be without promising young catcher Andrew Susac the rest of the way, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). Susac, 25, has suffered ligament damage to his wrist which will also cost him a chance to play winter ball, though it seems he should be ready for Spring Training. It’s another blow to San Francisco’s depth as the club struggles to remain in the hunt down the stretch. Susac has seen his name come up as an acquisition target for other clubs, particularly given the presence of Buster Posey behind the dish for the Giants. The injury could take him out of such consideration for at least some time, though the team’s level of interest in dealing him has never been clear. Fellow backstop Jackson Williams has had his contract purchased, with Susac hitting the 60-day DL to clear 40-man space.
  • Fellow Giants backstop Hector Sanchez may also be out of action until 2016, as Shea tweets. The 25-year-old Sanchez has an injured ankle and hamstring.
  • The outlook for Astros righty Scott Feldman “doesn’t seem good,” according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). The 32-year-old is dealing with right shoulder inflammation, and while a recent MRI revealed no structural damage, it seems that his throwing session yesterday did not go well. Fortunately for Houston, the club has a variety of rotation options to fill in, though it certainly hurts to lose another solid arm. Houston has Feldman under contract for one more season after this one at a $8MM salary.

Matt Harvey Backs Proposed 180-Inning Limit

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7:35pm: Harvey’s agent Scott Boras conducted a study regarding Tommy John recipients similar to Harvey, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Boras looked at pitchers who never exceeded 200 innings in a season, had Tommy John surgery, then returned with a roughly 200 inning workload.

Four pitchers fit into the statistical bucket – Shaun Marcum, Josh Johnson, Jarrod Parker, and Kris Medlen. Three of them required a second Tommy John surgery while the fourth, Marcum, is quite familiar with the disabled list. Boras offers Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann as two examples who built their innings total more carefully. Obviously, both pitchers have yet to experience another elbow related injury.

To be fair, any statistician would warn against taking this case study at face value. It’s interesting that all four pitchers have experienced continual health problems, but full statistical and medical analysis would surely be needed before assessing how these findings apply to other players.

4:47pm: Yesterday, it was reported that there was friction between Matt Harvey’s agent Scott Boras and the Mets over the Mets’ plans for handling Harvey down the stretch. Boras wanted the Mets to keep Harvey, who had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 season, on a 180-inning limit. Harvey has already pitched 166 1/3 innings this year, so a 180-inning limit would severely limit the Mets’ use of Harvey in the rest of the regular season and in the playoffs. The Mets responded that they would pitch Harvey based on their own plan and would have him pitch a “reasonable” amount during the postseason.

Today the story took a surprising turn, as Harvey himself spoke up to back the 180-inning limit. Here are the details, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (Twitter links) and the Record’s Matt Ehalt (Twitter links: 1 2 3 4). Harvey told reporters today that he would be limited to 180 innings. He refused to answer questions about the playoffs.

“I’m going to always play, but like I said, I hired Dr. [James] Andrews to do my surgery, and I hired Scott for a reason, and that’s to prolong my career and put me in the best possible position,” said Harvey, who added that the 180-inning limit came from Andrews (although Harvey was unsure whether that included the playoffs).

Via FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links), however, the Mets deny that Andrews backed a 180-inning limit. “He didn’t say 180 was the number,” says GM Sandy Alderson. “He was not categorical at all.” Rosenthal also tweets that Andrews does not prescribe strict innings limits for patients returning from Tommy John surgery.

Despite Boras’ previous comments, it’s surprising that Harvey would come out so strongly in favor of the innings limit. In early July, Harvey complained about the Mets’ six-man rotation, which would have limited his innings total this year. Some reporters, including Rosenthal (on Twitter), have suggested that Harvey might be hurting. That is, of course, speculation. But it could explain the timing of the 180-inning controversy, which might have been resolved, say, before the season, rather than in September. In any case, such a severe restriction on an impact pitcher like Harvey for the remainder of the season would have a significant effect on the Mets’ chances the rest of the way.

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