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Soto Bidding Could Approach $700MM

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As the Juan Soto decision nears, the expected contract seemingly continues to climb. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the price could push to $700MM. Heyman suggests that the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays may all be near that mark. The Dodgers are also a finalist, but various reports have put them as the least likely of the quintet to land him.

On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that multiple teams had made offers at or above $600MM. Agent Scott Boras said at the time that Soto had begun to narrow the field, though he didn’t specify a timetable for his decision. Most reports indicate he’s likely to sign by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, perhaps as soon as this weekend.

According to Heyman, teams have continued to adjust their offers in recent days. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported last night that the Red Sox were hoping for a final meeting with Soto’s camp to get the outfielder to name the specific price at which he’d put pen to paper. It’s not clear if Soto would grant any team that sit-down.

Shohei Ohtani’s deal was initially reported as a 10-year, $700MM contract. The extreme nature of the deferrals in the Ohtani deal, which were reported a few days after he announced he was signing with the Dodgers, dramatically reduced the net present value. MLB valued the contract around $461MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s still an all-time record. Soto was unquestionably going to beat $461MM and widely expected to go well beyond $500MM. (MLBTR predicted a 13-year, $600MM contract at the beginning of the offseason.) Getting to $700MM without deferrals would shatter prior contractual precedents.

Ohtani’s $46.06MM annual salary — again adjusting for deferrals — is the record for average annual value. Bryce Harper’s 13-year contract is the longest free agent deal in history. Soto would likely need to break both records to get to $700MM — potentially on a 14-year deal at $50MM annually. It shouldn’t be much longer before we learn if the market will go to those heights.

Clay Holmes Believed To Be Nearing Decision

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Free agent right-hander Clay Holmes appears close to making a decision on his next team, reports Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Teams that have been in talks with the former Yankees closer have gotten the impression that he’s on the verge of choosing among several offers, per Stark, who adds that Holmes has been negotiating with “a long list of contending clubs.”

Holmes, 32 in April, spent the past three and a half seasons in the Bronx, combining for 217 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball. He fanned 26.6% of his opponents and limited walks at a sharp 7.7% clip along the way. Holmes established himself as one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers in that time as well, leaning on a sizzling sinker that averages 96.5 mph to induce grounders at a nearly 68% clip.

While Holmes broke out as a reliever in the Bronx, however, there are reportedly several teams that have interest in bringing him aboard as a starting pitcher. Which role he prefers is surely something Holmes has weighed extensively in free agency — particularly if most of the clubs he’s spoken to are expected contenders. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last month that the Mets are among the teams interested in seeing Holmes in the rotation. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported just a couple days ago that the Phillies are interested in Holmes in a relief role. While free agency typically boils down to the “money talks” adage, if Holmes had similar offers from a pair of contending clubs who want to use him in different roles, that’d add another layer to the decision process.

In 2024, Holmes tossed 63 innings of 3.14 ERA ball with a 25.1% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 65% ground-ball rate. He piled up 30 saves, bringing his career total to 74, but also ceded ninth-inning work to teammate Luke Weaver late in the season due to an alarming — and highly out of character — 13 blown saves on the year. He pitched quite well in 13 postseason appearances, logging a 2.25 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 53.6% grounder rate in a dozen innings. Holmes was frequently thrust into leverage spots, evidenced by a 3-1 record and five holds over the course of those 13 playoff outings.

Red Sox Hoping For Additional Meeting With Soto

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By this time next week, there’s a good chance Juan Soto will have picked his destination. As the star outfielder weighs multiple offers at or above $600MM, the top of the market waits.

At least one team is hoping for another sit-down with Soto and agent Scott Boras. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Red Sox’s brass has expressed interest in another meeting at which Soto’s camp would name the price necessary to get a deal done. That’s an effort to avoid being unknowingly outbid at the end.

It seems the Sox are worried about the Mets in particular. Speier writes that Sox’s brass has heard rumors that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen has promised Boras that he’d beat the best offer made by any other team by $50MM. To be clear, Speier is not reporting on the veracity of that rumor itself. Speier is neither confirming nor denying that Cohen made such offer. The Globe’s report only mentions that the Sox are concerned enough that the rumor might be true that they’re hopeful of getting Soto and Boras to name a specific price.

It’s not clear if Boras and Soto have any interest in doing so. There’s value for Soto in playing teams’ uncertainties against each other. Relaying the specifics of every offer to each team in the race would eventually result in a highest bidder, but it’d also limit the possibility that one club goes well beyond whatever is on the table from the others.

There have seemingly been five legitimate suitors for Soto: the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Various reports have cast the Dodgers as a long shot. The general view is that Los Angeles entered the mix mostly to gauge whether Soto’s market might not materialize quite the way he’d envisioned. With multiple teams putting $600MM+ offers out there, that hasn’t been the case. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote last night that the Dodgers were unlikely to land him.

Speier confirms that the Red Sox recently upped their offer to $600MM. The Athletic reported on Tuesday that every team that still had a chance at Soto had hit or topped that mark. (That’s not necessarily a declaration that all five teams mentioned above had offered $600MM+, as it’s possible he has privately narrowed the field to exclude one or more of them.) Most observers still expect it to come down to one of the New York franchises, though the Sox and Jays have seemingly made full-fledged pushes to get themselves in the conversation.

One big spender that made little effort on Soto: the Phillies. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia brass never met with his camp. While the Phils haven’t shied away from big-ticket free agent pursuits, it seems they never believed they had a realistic chance to land Soto. Philadelphia owner John Middleton said a month ago that he felt they’d merely be used to drive up the bidding for Soto to sign with one of the New York teams (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Whether or not that would’ve been the case, Gelb writes that the Phillies felt it best to prioritize other avenues they found more realistic.

Yankees, Astros, Mariners Have Spoken To Cubs About Cody Bellinger

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Cody Bellinger has stood as one of the most recognizable but difficult-to-move names on the offseason trade market. Among the teams to reach out recently are the Yankees, Astros and Mariners, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. However, Levine adds that the Cubs aren’t looking to merely shed Bellinger’s salary, nor do they want to cover much (if any) money in a deal. That’s likely to be an issue. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote this morning that other teams feel the Cubs will need to pay down a notable portion of Bellinger’s salary (or, presumably, take back another contract) if they intend to get much in the way of a return.

The Cubs have been looking to upgrade various spots on the roster but have a tough road to do so, in part due to no-trade clauses for Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Other positions, like first base (Michael Busch) and center field (Pete Crow-Armstrong) are already manned by promising young players. Third baseman Isaac Paredes was only just acquired at the deadline. Second baseman Nico Hoerner makes some sense as an option to free up some cash and a spot in the lineup for a more impactful bat, but he’s coming off flexor surgery.

That’s led the Cubs to at least gauge interest in Bellinger, who passed on the opportunity to opt out of the remaining two years and $52.5MM on his contract at the beginning of the offseason. Bellinger had a fine year overall, hitting .266/.325/.426 with 18 homers and a tiny 15.6% strikeout rate (his second straight season with that exact strikeout rate). But while those numbers were solid, they pale in comparison to his 2023 showing. He also posted lesser defensive grades both in the outfield and at first bae in 2024.

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Cody Bellinger Trade]

The Yankees have been laying some groundwork in the event that Juan Soto ultimately signs elsewhere, showing recent interest in top-tier free agents like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames. That said, there’d pretty clearly be room for both Bellinger and Soto on the same roster. Bellinger could slot in at first base in the Bronx, offering another left-handed bat with good contact skills — a contrast to some of the strikeout-prone righties elsewhere in the lineup. He’d also be good insurance in the outfield, given the injury histories of both Aaron Judge and top prospect Jasson Dominguez. Bellinger could also serve as a safety net in the event that Dominguez looks overmatched early on.

In Houston, the Astros have a clear need at first base after their three-year, $58.5MM deal with Jose Abreu went sideways almost immediately. After a poor first year in 2023, Abreu started the 2024 season so poorly that he consented to being optioned to the minors. That Triple-A stint didn’t help, and Abreu was released less than halfway through that three-year deal. The ’Stros subsequently gave most of the playing time at first base to Jon Singleton, who provided light offense and subpar defense the rest of the way.

For the Mariners, first base has emerged as a clear need. They have at least one intriguing in-house option in prospect Tyler Locklear, but the M’s have been linked heavily to veterans Carlos Santana and Justin Turner as they search for a veteran bat at first base (and likely another at the hot corner). Bellinger’s contact skills would help Seattle cut down on the team’s longstanding strikeout issues as well.

The bigger issue with regard to Bellinger isn’t so much his overall ability, but rather the magnitude of his contract. He’s owed $52.5MM over the next two season — a guarantee that’s paid out in heavily frontloaded fashion. He’s taking home a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and is owed a $5MM buyout on a $25MM player option for the 2026 season if he opts out of the contract’s final season next winter. For an acquiring team, Bellinger would add $26.25MM to the luxury tax ledger and would cost at least $32.5MM in terms of actual, present-day salary.

For the 2023 version of Bellinger — .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+), 26 home runs — teams would happily pay that price. Of course, if Bellinger had produced at that same level in 2024, he’d surely have taken the first opt-out opportunity in his contract at the beginning of this offseason. That he chose to forgo his opt-out clause is indicative of the fact that he and agent Scott Boras don’t believe there’s a sizable nine-figure contract waiting for him.

With regard to the Yankees, that luxury number could be problematic. Whether they sign Soto or pursue multiple free agents from the Fried/Burnes/Adames bucket after missing out on him, they’ll surely be a luxury tax payor in at least the third tier of penalty — if not the fourth. Since they’re looking at paying the tax in three straight seasons, that means they’ll either be staring down a 95% tax or 110% tax rate. Bellinger would cost them somewhere between $52-56MM in combined salary and taxes — plus that potential $5MM buyout on the 2026 option. Even for a deep-pocketed club like the Yankees, that’s a staggering price to pay, particularly coming off a good-not-great season for Bellinger.

The Astros, too, have some luxury concerns. RosterResource estimates that they’re just about $7MM shy of the first-tier threshold. They’ve looked into trading Ryan Pressly, but even if Houston were able to unload his full $14MM salary, Bellinger would still thrust them back into luxury territory. The 2024 season was the first in which owner Jim Crane authorized paying the tax. Adding Bellinger would very likely require doing so a second time. Speculatively speaking, a swap of Pressly and Bellinger could make sense for both parties involved, though Pressly can veto any potential deal as a player with 10-and-5 rights.

Luxury considerations don’t apply to the Mariners, but the actual bottom-line cash owed to Bellinger will be an obstacle. Seattle is looking to add two infielders — one at each corner — and ownership doesn’t seem to have an appetite for raising payroll too far beyond last year’s roughly $145MM level. The Mariners already project for a number in a similar range. If they could find a taker for one Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver, perhaps Bellinger would become more realistic. For now, it seems likely that ever-active president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is simply doing due diligence, perhaps hoping the Cubs will pay down some of the contract (if not take someone like Garver back as part of the return).

Yankees, Phillies Among Teams With Interest In Tommy Kahnle

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Dec. 5: The Phillies have also checked in on both Kahnle and Holmes this winter, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. They’re known to be in the market for at least one high-leverage reliever this offseason, adding to a late-inning group that currently includes righty Orion Kerkering and lefties Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado. Their interest in Holmes is strictly as a reliever. If he ends up signing as a starting pitcher, it won’t be in Philadelphia.

Dec. 4: The Yankees have interest in another reunion with right-hander Tommy Kahnle, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post, though the veteran reliever has drawn at least some level of interest from as many as seven other clubs. Kahnle said after the Yankees’ season ended that he hoped to return to the Bronx as a free agent, so the interest seems mutual. He’s one of three free agent relievers coming out of the Yankees’ bullpen this offseason, joining Clay Holmes and Tim Hill. The Post’s Dan Martin writes that Holmes is expected to sign elsewhere in free agency.

The 35-year-old Kahnle and the Yankees continue to find their way back to one another. New York drafted the righty in the fifth round back in 2010, lost him to the Rockies in the 2013 Rule 5 Draft, acquired him from the White Sox at the 2017 trade deadline and then signed him as a free agent in the 2022-23 offseason. He’s spent parts of six seasons in pinstripes, logging a combined 3.31 ERA out of the Yankees’ bullpen.

Kahnle’s most recent stint with the Yankees saw him log a combined 2.38 ERA in 83 1/3 regular-season innings from 2023-24. He fanned a strong 27.3% of his opponents in that time but also issued walks at an unpalatable 11% clip. He missed time in each of those seasons with shoulder troubles, however.

Kahnle kept the ball in the yard nicely over the past couple seasons (1.08 HR/9) despite Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field. That’s in part because the overwhelming use of his changeup helped him neutralize left-handed hitters. Nearly three quarters of Kahnle’s pitches in 2023-24 were changeups. Lefties posted an awful .172/.267/.338 slash against him in that time. Spamming his changeup to that extent has also helped Kahnle keep the ball on the ground at a hearty 54.1% clip in that time — including a gaudy 58.9% mark in 2024. The Yankees typically show an affinity for grounder-heavy pitchers in the bullpen.

Of course, what was a generally successful third stint with the Yankees ended on a sour note. Kahnle rattled off seven scoreless innings between the ALDS and ALCS during the 2024 postseason and got out to a fine start in the World Series as well, yielding only an unearned run in his first two appearances (1 2/3 innings). However, it was Kahnle who loaded the bases on a pair of singles and a walk while trying to protect a 6-5 lead in the decisive Game 5 of the World Series. He was lifted without recording an out and saddled with the loss after two of his baserunners eventually came around to score. That showing apparently didn’t sour the Yankees on the changeup specialist, but for now they’re just one of several teams in the mix for his services.

Everson Pereira Among Players Eligible For Fourth Option Year

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Yankees outfielder Everson Pereira and infielder Jorbit Vivas and Mets right-hander Max Kranick are eligible for a fourth option year, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. They join Red Sox right-hander Cooper Criswell in that regard; there’ll likely be additional such reports throughout the offseason.

After a player is added to the 40-man roster, they can typically be assigned to the minors in three additional seasons. If a player who is on the 40-man spends at least 20 days in the minors during a season, that subtracts one of those years. In certain circumstances, teams are allowed to option a player for a fourth season.

A player is eligible for a fourth option if they exhaust their three option years before they’ve played five professional seasons. MLB defines a professional season as one in which a player spent at least 90 days on an MLB or minor league active roster. Many players will spend a few years with a minor league affiliate before they’re added to a 40-man roster. As those count as professional seasons but are not option years, most players reach five seasons prior to running out of options.

Pereira and Vivas were each initially added to their clubs’ 40-man rosters during the 2021-22 offseason. They’ve both been optioned in each of the last three years. Neither Pereira nor Vivas appeared in a full “professional season” before 2021, however. Both players were at complexes or short-season affiliates between 2017-19, so neither got to 90 days on a minor league roster in any of those years. The minor league schedule was canceled in 2020 and did not count as a professional season. Vivas has logged four professional seasons (2021-24), while Pereira didn’t log a full minor league campaign until ’22.

Kranick first made it onto a 40-man roster after 2020. He’d already accrued two professional seasons at that point. He picked up a third in ’21 but spent almost all of the 2022-23 campaigns on the injured list. Kranick battled forearm issues and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned to health this year, his fourth professional season.

The extra option means these players can be sent back to the minors without landing on waivers. Vivas and Kranick could be on the 40-man roster bubble anyways. The extra option is most relevant with regards to Pereira, a former top prospect who underwent elbow surgery last June. If the Yankees had to decide between carrying him on the MLB roster or putting him on waivers, there’s a good chance they’d have opted for the latter route coming out of Spring Training. They’ll instead be able to send him back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to evaluate him for one more year.

Yankees Recently Met With Max Fried, Corbin Burnes

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The Yankees’ efforts to re-sign Juan Soto have dominated headlines in the Bronx this offseason, but they’re also laying the groundwork for other free agent possibilities. The Yankees held a 90-minute meeting with longtime Braves lefty Max Fried this week, as first reported by the YES Network’s Michael Kay, who adds that the talk went well and the two sides are expected to meet again. Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post also report that the two sides met, with the Yankees’ contingent consisting of GM Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone, pitching coach Matt Blake and as many as six other team officials. Puma and Sherman further add that the Yankees met with Corbin Burnes late last month.

Soto, of course, remains the Yankees’ top focus. It seems unlikely that they’d sign him to what increasingly appears to be a $600MM+ contract and then put down more than $150MM on one of Fried or Burnes — though the Yanks certainly have the resources to do so. Still, it’s only natural for any Soto suitor to be doing homework on potential contingency plans in the event that he signs elsewhere. Loading up on high-end starting pitching and addressing the lineup in other ways would be one such possibility. (Notably, the Yankees have also recently been linked to infielder Willy Adames, who’s willing to play third base or second base with a new club.)

The Yankees already have one of the most expensive staffs in the sport. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman are owed a combined $81MM next year. Nestor Cortes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM. Righty Clarke Schmidt is projected at $3.5MM. Newly minted Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years. There’s been speculation about the Yankees moving either Stroman or Cortes this winter, both of which seem plausible. Adding someone the caliber of Fried of Burnes would make a trade elsewhere in the rotation a virtual inevitability.

Either Burnes or Fried would join Cole right atop what could be a powerhouse Yankees rotation. Both pitchers rejected qualifying offers from their former clubs, meaning both would cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest draft selections, in addition to $1MM of space from their 2025 bonus pool in international free agency. For a pitcher of either caliber, that’s a small price to pay.

Fried, 31 in January, has rattled off 659 innings of 2.81 ERA ball dating back to the 2020 season. He’s third among all qualified starting pitchers in ERA in that time, trailing only Brandon Woodruff (2.76) and Clayton Kershaw (2.79). Fried has thrown nearly 200 more innings than both those pitchers. His 2024 season wasn’t his best, but only relative to his lofty standards. He made 29 starts, totaling 174 1/3 innings, and notched a tidy 3.25 ERA.

Fried doesn’t miss bats like the prototypical ace but has a slightly better-than-average 23.6% strikeout rate over the past five seasons. He sports a strong 6.3% walk rate in that time and is among the game’s very best when it comes to minimizing hard contact and avoiding opponents’ barrels. He also racks up grounders at a plus rate (54.2% since 2020) — highlighted by a career-best 58.8% mark in 2024. Fried has generally been durable, although he was limited to 14 starts in 2023 due to a forearm strain that did not end up requiring surgery. He missed three starts in 2024 due to a nerve issue in that same forearm, but that’s ostensibly a different issue than the one that sidelined him in ’23.

Burnes is nearly a full year younger, having turned 30 about five weeks ago. He’s solidified himself as a true workhorse, ranking third in the majors in innings pitched over the past five seasons and sitting narrowly behind Fried with a fourth-ranked 2.88 ERA in that same span. Burnes was traded from the Brewers to the Orioles last offseason and proved himself against many of the very same AL East lineups he’d be facing as a Yankee. He made 32 starts and pitched 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the O’s, adding eight innings of one-run excellence in Baltimore’s brief postseason foray.

Dominant as Burnes has been at times in his career, his recent work bears some resemblance to that of Fried. That’s not a bad thing, of course, but his once sky-high strikeout rate now sits at a roughly league-average rate (23.1% in 2024). Like Fried, he’s countered the diminished strikeout tendencies with sharp command and a knack for dodging hard contact. Burnes doesn’t generate grounders at the same level, but his 46.9% career mark and 2024’s 48.8% rate are both still comfortably above average.

The general thinking has been that Burnes will sign the largest contract of any pitcher this offseason. He’s two years younger than Blake Snell — who signed for five years and $182MM with the Dodgers (albeit with some deferrals) — and a year younger than Fried. His blend of durability and effectiveness is unmatched among this year’s crop of free agents. Fried, however, should command a deal well north of $100MM himself — quite possibly approaching or even exceeding the $162MM the Yankees promised to Rodon two winters ago.

The Yankees currently project for a payroll around $230MM, per RosterResource. They’re currently below the luxury tax threshold, but only nominally so. Even minor additions in free agency or on the trade market will push them into luxury territory. They’ve been a tax payor in each of the past three seasons, however, and their pursuits of various high-end free agents makes it clear they’re comfortable not only paying the tax for a fourth straight season but perhaps pushing into the highest tier of penalty again — at least for the 2025 season.

Managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has said that trotting out a payroll of that magnitude every season isn’t sustainable in the long run. However, that’s probably the reality for the immediate future, so long as the Yanks are paying Aaron Judge, Cole and Rodon a combined $103MM annually through 2028 (to say nothing of weighty commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Stroman and any forthcoming free agent/trade additions).

Yankees, Giants Showing Interest In Willy Adames

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The Yankees and Giants are among the teams that have shown interest in Willy Adames, writes Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The market’s top shortstop has also been tied to the Astros, Phillies, Blue Jays, Braves and Red Sox throughout the offseason.

New York’s top priority is re-signing Juan Soto. They could know within the next few days whether Soto will stay in the Bronx or accept a $600MM+ offer elsewhere. If Soto walks, there’d be a lot of pressure on both owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman to land one or more players from the next tiers of free agency.

Adames and Alex Bregman are probably the next-best position players. Neither is going to come close to Soto’s contract, of course, but they could each land a deal in the $150-200MM range. While Bregman would be a more straightforward positional fit, it’s possible the organization could still have animosity over the third baseman’s role in the 2017 sign-stealing operation. Adames carries no such baggage.

The Yankees don’t need a shortstop. Anthony Volpe is one of the game’s top defensive infielders. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com wrote recently that the Yanks were unwilling to move Volpe off the position. Adames is reportedly willing to consider a position change, though it’s possible he’d sign with a team that’ll keep him at shortstop if he’s weighing multiple offers in the same price range.

Shortstop is the only infield position that is settled in the Bronx. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be in the mix at either second or third base. If Chisholm replaces Gleyber Torres at the keystone, the top internal third base possibilities are DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera and prospect Caleb Durbin. That’s not sufficient for a team trying to get back to the World Series. The Yankees could also upgrade at first base, where Ben Rice is the best in-house option.

Adames hasn’t played third base in the majors. He has 10 career games outside of shortstop, all of which came at second base during his 2018 rookie season. Shortstops usually move to other infield positions without issue. Adames has plus arm strength and athleticism. His typically strong defensive grades dipped this year because of a spike in errors, but there’s not much reason to believe he wouldn’t be an effective third baseman.

There’d be no need for a position change in San Francisco. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said at the start of the offseason that the Giants wanted to add a shortstop. That’d allow them to move Tyler Fitzgerald to second base, where he’s a better fit. San Francisco was linked to Ha-Seong Kim, the market’s #2 shortstop, a few weeks ago.

Kim is coming back from labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder. That makes him riskier than Adames but should dramatically reduce the price. While Adames is likely to sign for six or seven years, Kim could settle for a two-year deal that allows him to opt out after next season. The former Padres infielder also has an obvious connection to San Francisco skipper Bob Melvin.

Adames rejected a qualifying offer from the Brewers. The Yankees and Giants each exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year, so they’d pay the highest penalties to sign a qualified free agent. Either team would lose their second- and fifth-highest pick in next summer’s draft and $1MM from their 2026 international signing bonus pool.

Bidding For Juan Soto Has Reached At Least $600MM

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The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.

With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.

Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.

While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.

That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.

In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Latest On Juan Soto

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While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.

Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.

It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.

Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.

To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.

Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.

It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.

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