Latest On Masahiro Tanaka
3:07pm: John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle hears that Tanaka's initial preferred cities are Los Angeles, New York and Boston (Twitter link).
Meanwhile, Nightengale softens his stance in a pair of new tweets, noting that the Dodgers confirmed their interest but don't want to spend "wildly" or do anything crazy with their bid in order to land Tanaka.
1:04pm: While team president Stan Kasten said in a radio interview yesterday not to predict the Dodgers to land Masahiro Tanaka, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that the Dodgers have made it known that they will go "all out" to sign the Japanese ace and "certainly won't be outbid."
Of course, because of the new posting agreement between Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball, signing Tanaka is no longer simply a matter of outbidding your opponents. Any team that wishes to pay the $20MM posting fee can negotiate with Tanaka as if he were a free agent, and the team would only lose that $20MM if an agreement between the two sides were to be reached. In other words, virtually any team in the Majors can afford to negotiate with Tanaka, and he could have preferences beyond signing for top dollar.
We've heard a great number of teams connected to Tanaka over the past two days, as the right-hander is in Los Angeles at this time meeting with teams face-to-face. In the past 24 hours alone, the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, White Sox, Blue Jays and Indians have all been linked to Tanaka.
Adding Tanaka to the mix would give the Dodgers a potentially unrivaled rotation in terms of dominance, as he would join Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu and Dan Haren. The addition of Tanaka would seem to push Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley out of the picture for the Dodgers, though both dealt with injuries in 2013. Billingsley isn't expected back until summer after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
AL East Notes: Yanks, Stroman, Tanaka, Orioles
Last night, Red Sox GM Ben Cherington appeared on WEEI radio and discussed a number of topics, including Stephen Drew, Masahiro Tanaka and David Ortiz. That post has been updated this morning to include the full audio of Cherington's 18-minute interview. Elsewhere in the AL East…
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes that the Yankees have a 40-man roster crunch right now, but Alex Rodriguez's likely suspension would clear one spot. The Yankees will still need to clear more via trades or DFA, as they've yet to officially announce the signings of Brian Roberts and Matt Thornton, despite agreeing to deals with that duo on Dec. 17. Signing Masahiro Tanaka would require further roster manipulation (Twitter links).
- Blue Jays manager John Gibbons isn't ruling out the possibility of top prospect Marcus Stroman making the team out of Spring Training, though he did caution that it's a long shot, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.
- Nicholson-Smith also tweets that Gibbons says the Blue Jays are keeping tabs on Tanaka.
- Wei-Yin Chen's recovery from surgery to remove bone spurs from his knee "hasn't been as seamless as some others have been," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said on WBAL Radio (via MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko). Though Showalter said he expects Chen to be fine, he did say his recovery has been slow and that the team is "keeping really close tabs" on Chen.
- From that same piece, Showalter says Manny Machado "feels great." The manager added that his gut feeling is that Machado can be healthy by Opening Day, but the organization will not rush him. The O's will use Ryan Flaherty as their Opening Day third baseman if Machado isn't ready, writes Kubatko.
Pitching Notes: Winston, Verlander, Johan, Yankees, Brewers
Florida State quarterback and pitcher/outfielder Jameis Winston may not ultimately be long for the game of baseball, but he has potential first-round talent, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America writes in an interesting piece. If Winston were to end up pursuing baseball, he has legitimate ability both as a switch-hitting position player and as a pitcher. But his developmental process may mean he now has more value through his arm, Cooper writes. One scout says that, if he sees enough time on the mound, Winston is a top-20 draft candidate given his low-to-mid-90's fastball and solid slider.
Here are some pitching notes from around the league:
- The Tigers announced today that former American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander underwent successful core muscle surgery in Philadelphia this morning. Verlander injured himself in late December during his regular offseason conditioning and will undergo rehab for the next six weeks. "We fully anticipate Justin to participate in spring training and be in a position to compete at the beginning of the 2014 season," said GM Dave Dombrowski in the press release. Here's more from around the league…
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (via Twitter) that Johan Santana expects to throw off a mound this month and could either sign with a team to complete his rehab or wait until he is healthy to showcase for teams. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is still deciding the best course of action, it seems.
- The Yankees are among several teams keeping an eye on Santana's rehab progress, reports Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger. He may audition for scouts before Spring Training, McCullough adds.
- The Brewers have been running quietly in free agency thus far, but GM Doug Melvin says that the team is talking with several relievers, reports MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, who breaks down the remaining options. On the other hand, Melvin seems content taking his current array of relievers into Spring Training without a significant addition. "Right now, we're just going to [fill the bullpen] internally," said Melvin, "unless that changes."
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Masahiro Tanaka Rumors: Thursday
With the courting of Japanese starter Masahiro Tanaka now firmly underway, here is the latest on the top remaining free agent (in the estimation of MLBTR's Tim Dierkes):
- Tanaka is in Los Angeles not only to meet with clubs, but to undergo a physical, reports Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. Tanaka will have his physical on Thursday and release the results to interested clubs. With a sizeable workload already under Tanaka's belt at age 25, says Dilbeck, agent Casey Close may be looking to get out in front of any health concerns.
- After Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said yesterday that discussions were in the "feeling-out" stage, president Stan Kasten further discussed the team's interest in Tanaka today in an interview with Mark Willard and Ben Lyons of ESPNLA 710, writes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. "You can be assured we'll investigate everything and, if there's a way that it made sense, I'm sure we would consider it," said Kasten. "But I wouldn't predict it, I wouldn't hang our hat on it, because I think the team we have right now in place is ready to go to spring training, ready to start the season and ready to compete and win."
- Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers also discussed Tanaka from his club's perspective, indicating to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he anticipates a chance to meet with Tanaka and his camp. "They've been good through the process," Towers said in reference to Tanaka and Close. "I'm sure they've dealt with us the same way they've dealt with other clubs." Towers also addressed the issue of whether Arizona could compete with other teams that may have greater financial flexibility. "We don't know if it's about dollars or location or the chance to be competitive," said Towers. "Nobody has really met with him so I don't think any of us have any idea. … If they come out and say it's going to be the club that spends the most money on him, then we're probably not the front-runner. But everything right now is pure speculation by the media." The D-Backs' top baseball man declined to disclose his sales pitch, but did say that his organization has "spent a great deal of time putting together what our plan of attack is and what our selling points are."
- The White Sox have issued a statement confirming that club representatives met with Tanaka and his camp today, Scott Merkin of MLB.com was among those to report (through a series of Twitter links). GM Rick Hahn was joined by executive VP Ken Williams and manager Robin Ventura for a meeting that was, in Hahn's words, "exploratory in nature."
- Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been in touch with Close, GM Ben Cherington told WEEI.com in a radio interview today. As WEEI.com's Alex Speier tweets, Cherington said that "we'll see how it plays out" as to whether the club ultimately meets with Tanaka and company.
- The details of the negotation process could have a major role in where Tanaka ultimately ends up, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explores in a series of tweets. For instance, the Diamondbacks have a scout who played with Tanaka in Japan, while Angels executive Hal Morris played ball with Close in college. While such advantages may be minor, Rosenthal says that clubs are looking for any edge.
- The precise structure of the deal could also be highly variable, says Rosenthal, and may well include creative contract terms. Rosenthal cites Close's utilization of an opt-out clause in the Zack Greinke deal, and proposal to include a similar clause in a Clayton Kershaw extension. An opt-out clause or even a massive AAV over a shorter term would not be surprising, according to Rosenthal.
Earlier Updates
- Tanaka arrived in the United States to begin meeting with Major League clubs, tweets David Waldstein of the New York Times. Tanaka was originally planning on flying into Chicago, but an NL official tells Waldstein that weather caused him to fly into Los Angeles instead.
- Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Tanaka's camp could meet with as many as a dozen by Friday. According to Heyman, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees (in addition to the above-noted Angels, White Sox, and Diamondbacks) all have meetings set. The Blue Jays have also had multiple conversations with Tanaka's camp already, he adds, but it's unclear if they have a face-to-face meeting set in Los Angeles. Heyman reports that Tanaka began meetings yesterday and could meet with five to six teams per day.
- We also learned additional details on the payment schedule for the posting fee that will be owed by whatever team ultimately lands Tanaka.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Rodriguez May Not Challenge Shorter Suspension
With arbitrator Frederic Horowitz reportedly close to ruling on Alex Rodriguez's 211-game suspension, the embattled Rodriguez is weighing his options on how to proceed if his ban is upheld. He may be willing to forego a legal challenge to the suspension if it is substantially reduced, reports Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com.
A source tells Matthews that the magic number could be around 100 games, with a ban at or above that level making a further fight "likely." Presumably, a reduced suspension could result either from Horowitz's ruling or through negotiations with MLB. Sources told the New York Daily News yesterday that 65 games represented the level at which Rodriguez might be willing to back down.
These reports constitute a softening of the public position of Rodriguez's team, which has previously insisted that any suspension would warrant pursuit of relief in federal court. But if Rodriguez can whittle the ban down to a low enough point, the financial balance (and obvious risk of failure in a difficult legal challenge) could shift in favor of dropping his case.
A ruling on Rodriguez's grievance proceeding could come as soon as Friday, according to Matthews. Of course, the ultimate suspension length promises to have a major impact on the Yankees. New York stands to lose Rodriguez from its lineup, while also saving a big chunk of his sizeable salary, over the term of whatever ban is ultimately arrived upon.
Minor Moves: Tateyama, Severino, Wimberly, Indians
Baseball America's Matt Eddy has a new Minor League transactions piece posted that is rife with signings and releases. Here are just some of the highlights, but the full, free piece is highly recommended (all info credited to Eddy unless otherwise specified)…
- The Yankees have re-signed right-hander Yoshinori Tateyama to a minor league deal and inked Bruce Billings to a minor league pact as well. Tateyama, who turned 38 on Dec. 26, had an outstanding 1.70 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings for the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate in 2013. Billings, a 28-year-old right-hander, has spent the past three seasons in Oakland's system and posted a 4.31 ERA in 148 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2013.
- Left-hander Atahualpa Severino has inked a minor league deal with the Braves. As Eddy notes, the 29-year-old held opposing left-handers to a .171/.234/.271 batting line while striking out 27.3 percent and walking 6.5 percent of the 77 he faced last year. He split the season between the Triple-A affiliates for the Pirates and Royals, posting a combined 3.60 ERA.
- The Twins have signed outfielder/second baseman Corey Wimberly to a minor league deal, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish. The 30-year-old is a career .274/.351/.347 career hitter in parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level and split 2013 between the Reds and Braves organizations.
- Cotillo also reports that the Tigers have signed backstop Luis Exposito to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training (Twitter link). Soon to be 27, Exposito slashed .224/.279/.346 in 64 games with Baltimore's Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk last year.
- The Indians announced on Twitter that they have released six minor leaguers: right-handers Kyle Blair, Owen Dew, Rafael Homblert and Michael Goodnight; infielder Manuel Boscan; and outfielder Victor De Jesus.
AL Notes: Indians, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Jays
The Indians have had a quiet offseason thus far, with December's one-year pact with John Axford and a trade that netted them reliever Josh Outman in exchange for Drew Stubbs being their biggest moves. In a reader mailbag column, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer writes that the Tribe's estimated 2013 attendance figure of 1.6 million — second-to-last in the majors — could be a factor in the club's quiet offseason. Fans might see more activity from the Cleveland front office if attendance returned to the 2.5 million to 3 million range that the Indians formerly drew, Hoynes says. Here's more from around the American League:
- Jeff Sullivan examined the importance of rotation depth in a piece for Fangraphs. In 2013, teams got an average of 32 starts from pitchers who didn't rank among their top-five most heavily used starters. Sullivan notes that a pitcher like Ryan Dempster, who's been the subject of trade discussions as the odd man out in the Red Sox rotation, could end up being valuable for Boston when one factors in expected rates of starter attrition.
- A trip to the postseason can exhaust a pitcher, former Cy Young Award-winner Orel Hershiser tells Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Red Sox pitchers Jon Lester and Koji Uehara each reached career highs in innings as they continued to throw into October last season. Lauber reports that Red Sox personnel have urged some of the club's pitchers to alter their offseason routines because of the higher workloads.
- The Boston Herald's John Tomase sizes up the Red Sox's AL East competitors now that several have brought in new talent.
- Yesterday, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com listed the six worst contracts on the books for the Yankees. Today, he named Brett Gardner (arbitration eligible), Alfonso Soriano (one year with the Cubs paying all but $5MM of his 2014 salary), David Robertson (arbitration eligible), Ivan Nova (arbitration eligible), Hiroki Kuroda (one year, $16MM), and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM) as the team's best bargains. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects arbitration salaries of $4MM for Gardner, $5.5MM for Robertson, and $2.8MM for Nova.
- It's time for the Orioles to spend, and starting pitching stands out as the team's greatest area of need, CBS Sports' Dayn Perry writes. Signing Masahiro Tanaka would provide the club with a front-of-the-rotation arm as it prepares for another grueling season in the AL East. Kendrys Morales is also a good fit for the Orioles' DH slot, Perry opines.
- The Blue Jays have been quiet so far this offseason, but Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star sees five reasons for being optimistic about 2014.
Edward Creech contributed to this post.
Rosenthal on Angels, Qualifying Offers, Drew, Jays, Putz
The Angels are likely to eclipse the $189MM luxury-tax threshold eventually, despite their efforts to avoid doing so this offseason, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. Sources tell the columnist that the Angels have between $13MM and $15MM of space left beneath the cap, figures that are much lower than what will be required to sign Masahiro Tanaka. However, extending Mike Trout at, say, $300MM over 10 years would make it difficult to avoid surpassing the threshold anyway, so the Angels may as well do so now, Rosenthal surmises. Here's more from his new column:
- This offseason's big contracts for less-than-durable stars like Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson and Brian McCann show that position players can earn more as free agents than they would with club-friendly, long-term deals. Meanwhile, clubs appear increasingly willing to move players who resist extensions. For example, sources tell Rosenthal that rival teams have asked about Astros catcher Jason Castro, who could be moved if Houston is unable to ink him long-term.
- Qualifying offers appear to have suppressed the market for players such as Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales, frustrating player representatives. Potential fixes to the system include guaranteeing that free agents receive a qualifying offer only once, or ensuring that teams signing free agents who received qualifying offers lose only draft picks and not their associated bonus-pool amounts. The current system will remain in place for another two offseasons, Rosenthal notes.
- Stephen Drew appears to be a fit for the Mets, rival executives say, despite the club's insistence that it will consider Ruben Tejada for its starting shortstop job.
- The Blue Jays remain among the favorites to sign either Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, despite their quiet offseason thus far. The Jays could acquire as many as two starters before the offseason is over, Rosenthal reports. In addition to upgrading through free agency, the club has also discussed trades for the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija and other starters.
- The Diamondbacks could trade J.J. Putz after acquiring Addison Reed from the White Sox. Swapping the righty for Yankees outfielder Ichiro Suzuki is one potential deal, or Putz could be packaged with other players in a deal for a starter such as Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Yankees
We'll kick off the first weekend of 2014 with a few quick AL East notes …
- The Orioles have had trade discussions with the Mets involving not only Ike Davis, but also Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, reports Educardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. But, as we learned already with regard to Davis, the talks never gained much traction given the Mets' focus on picking up a top young arm from the Orioles' system.
- Baltimore's first priority is adding starting pitching, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, taking precedence over the search for a DH and the possibility of adding a reliever. The O's are not shopping at the top end of that market, however. Meanwhile, the club's interest in Kendrys Morales is "waning," Kubatko senses. When asked whether the Baltimore roster was good enough to challenge for the post-season as presently constructed, executive VP Dan Duquette walked cautiously: "I think we have more work to do to accomplish that, but we're making progress. We added a couple left-handed hitters and there are some opportunities to help our pitching staff."
- Looking forward, the Yankees have six deals on the books that are likely to prove a burden, opines Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. The list (with remaining guaranteed years and money): Alex Rodriguez (four years, $90MM), Mark Teixeira (three years, $69.375MM), Ichiro Suzuki (1 year, $6.5MM), C.C. Sabathia (three years, $71MM), Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153MM), and Derek Jeter (1 year, $12MM). Of course, each of these contract situations carries different kinds of concerns. Three are somewhat unsurprisingly problematic back-ends of long-term deals, though there is still some hope that the Yanks will get some value out of the remainder of those contracts. Two appear to be fairly substantial short-term drains for an organization that hoped to get under the luxury tax threshhold, but otherwise will not impact finances past 2014. And one is a freshly-inked long-term contract that could become a problem in the future — much in the way the earlier Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia contracts have shaken out of late — but which was presumably necessary to lure a top-tier talent to the Bronx.
The Teams That Could Use Stephen Drew The Most
Agent Scott Boras has a quality starting shortstop on his hands in free agent Stephen Drew. Drew, 31 in March, bears the stigma of costing a draft pick to sign. But in 2013 for the Red Sox, he hit .253/.333/.443 in 501 plate appearances and was worth 3.4 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs. That tied for eighth-best in baseball among shortstops.
If you are a believer in projection systems, Drew will not be a top ten shortstop in 2014. Using an average of projected 2014 WAR from Steamer, Oliver, and where available, ZiPS (all from FanGraphs), Drew ranks 23rd among starting shortstops with 2.0. Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias rank below Drew, but they are close enough that he wouldn't be a clear upgrade. We're left with six starting shortstops on whom Drew would be an upgrade, based on these projections: Jonathan Villar of the Astros, Derek Jeter of the Yankees, Ruben Tejada of the Mets, Pedro Florimon of the Twins, Alcides Escobar of the Royals, and Adeiny Hechavarria of the Marlins. Let's look at each situation individually.
- Astros: The Astros want to see what Villar, 23 in May, can do over the course of a full season. The Astros viewed the outfield as a place to potentially add a hitter, so they acquired Dexter Fowler in December. They also picked up first baseman/left fielder Jesus Guzman in another trade that month. For the Astros to displace Villar and give up the #33 pick in the draft, Drew would have to come at an extreme bargain. The Astros do not look like a fit, even if Drew would give them an extra win in 2014.
- Yankees: GM Brian Cashman told Peter Gammons in late December his team won't be signing Drew, which is a fairly rare comment on a specific free agent. Drew would only cost the #53 pick in the draft. But even if it makes some sense in a spreadsheet, adding him as insurance for Jeter could be controversial. Plus, the Yankees made a large commitment to Jeter and have more pressing needs right now.
- Mets: One rival GM thinks the Mets are feigning disinterest in Drew, according to Gammons, as he would be an upgrade on Tejada. Drew makes a ton of sense for the Mets, who would only have to surrender the #82 draft pick. The Mets are by far the best match for Drew.
- Twins: The Twins have spent $86.75MM on four free agents so far this winter, with 97% of that going toward pitching. Their draft pick cost would be #43, and I don't see why they wouldn't give Drew serious consideration. However, they seem set with Florimon.
- Royals: The Royals have spent big on free agents Omar Infante and Jason Vargas this winter, but don't seem interested in upgrading on Escobar even if they could afford Drew.
- Marlins: The Marlins have added four position players through free agency this winter, but they seem set with Hechavarria manning shortstop for years to come.
What about Drew's old team, the Red Sox? He may have less than 100 big league plate appearances to his name, but 21-year-old phenom Xander Bogaerts projects to be better than Drew in 2014. Re-signing Drew would mean not receiving a supplemental first round pick for losing him, so there is a cost in that regard. Drew makes sense if the Red Sox are wary of using Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks as their starters on the left side of the infield, though.
It seems the Mets and Boras will continue to play chicken regarding Drew, but GM Sandy Alderson does have the upper hand in that no other suitor is emerging. It seems to be the right time for a Mystery Team to step in. One Hail Mary option for Boras could be to market Drew as a potential second or third baseman in 2014, for teams with entrenched shortstops. Once again, Boras is tasked with pulling a rabbit out of his hat on a free agent client.