Gammons On Top Starters, Shields, Blue Jays, Drew, Polanco
In two pieces today for GammonsDaily.com, Peter Gammons discusses a variety of hot stove topics. In particular, even before Clayton Kershaw's market-busting extension earlier today, Gammons noted that the price of starting pitching has been a hot topic among baseball GMs.
- The two key situations driving market pricing, he writes, are the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes and how the Rays handle David Price. Tanaka could command $120MM or more from the Yankees or Dodgers, says Gammons. As for Price, Tampa is increasingly inclined to hold onto their ace at least until the trade deadline, when they can try to extract a higher price or hold onto him for a postseason run.
- These situations could have a substantial impact on several other high-end starters that are set to become free agents next year. James Shields has let the Royals know that he is looking to score a contract on the magnitude of Zach Greinke's six-year, $147MM deal.
- Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Reds do not plan on approaching key extension candidates Jon Lester and Homer Bailey, respectively, until Spring Training.
- After disappointing returns on some of their major pitching acquisitions last year, the Blue Jays are not going to engage in any bidding wars for starting pitching, Gammons says. The club will instead "build on youth and rehabs," and will only jump into the mix for arms like Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez if they "fall down to [Toronto]."
- Agent Scott Boras has increasingly given indication that free agent Stephen Drew is willing to play positions other than shortstop, says Gammons, which may increase his appeal to both the Yankees and Red Sox. As Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes in a separate piece, Boras says that Drew has suitors other than the Sox and Mets, though he declined to name them.
- Already considered one of the game's top prospects, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco has raised his stock even further with big numbers (including a .428 OBP) in he Dominican winter league. Polanco, 22, could have an impact by the mid-season of 2014. More importantly for the Bucs' long-term plans, one National League GM tells Gammons that the prospective Pittsburgh outfield of Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, and Starling Marte "will be the best outfield in the game."
Mark Reynolds Weighing Offers, Expected To Sign Soon
Free agent corner infielder/designated hitter Mark Reynolds has several offers in hand and is likely to take one by the end of the week, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. As Kilgore notes, the Nationals are among the teams to have expressed interest in the slugging 30-year-old.
Last we heard, the Nats were joined by four other teams that were in on Reynolds: the Rangers, Twins, Orioles, and Yankees. Though Reynolds was let go by the Indians after a rough .215/.307/.373 triple-slash over his first 384 plate appearances of 2013, he was better upon joining the Yankees. In 120 plate appearances for New York, Reynolds slashed .236/.300/.455.
Reynolds has prodigious power, having hit at least twenty home runs over the last six seasons. But with that strength comes a tendency to swing and miss; Reynolds has led the league in K's in four of his seven seasons. Reynolds has also graded out poorly as a fielder as well, though his baserunning metrics see him as average in that regard. It is worth noting, also, that Reynolds has a relatively minor career platoon split (.777 OPS and 147 home runs vs. righties; .834 OPS and 55 home runs vs. lefties).
Quick Hits: Kershaw, Tanaka, Matsuzaka, Twins
Bargains abound on the free agent market, opines Doug Miller of MLB.com. Miller lists the following sleeper candidates for solid production in 2014: catcher Michael McKenry, first bagger Casey Kotchman, outfielders Chris Coghlan, Derrick Robinson, Grady Sizemore, and Tyler Colvin, and pitchers James McDonald, Suk-min Yoon, and David Aardsma. Here are a few more links to round out the day:
- Ace Clayton Kershaw has had ongoing discussions with the Dodgers about an extension that could reach ten seasons with over a $30MM annual salary, says Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Club GM Ned Colletti said just recently that talks have been active, and of course the club reportedly extended Kershaw a $300MM offer during the 2013 season. Such a deal would make Kershaw the best paid player in baseball history, both in terms of total guarantee and annual salary.
- Meanwhile, the Dodgers are still in on the biggest open market pitcher of the offseason, Masahiro Tanaka. As Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com explains, the Yankees have an urgent need for Tanaka, while the Dodgers more aptly want the hurler. If Los Angeles nevertheless outbids the Yanks for the Japanese star, says Saxon, it would represent a fundamental power shift in the game.
- You can count the Athletics out of the mix for Tanaka, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Though GM Billy Beane surprised many when he nabbed Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, Slusser says that Oakland is not pursuing Tanaka.
- Reports earlier this evening that Daisuke Matsuzaka had re-signed with the Mets proved untrue, as multiple reports made clear. But Matsuzaka still realistically could land in New York on a minor league deal, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports. He would compete with in-house options for the club's fifth and final rotation slot.
- The Twins have hit before on the international market, and may now have their eyes on a couple of Cuban pitchers. According to a report on Twitter from 1500 ESPN Darren Wolfson, Minnesota sent three scouts to Mexico to see hurlers Misael Siverio and Odrisamer Despaigne throw in a showcase.
AL East Notes: Price, Tanaka, Yankees, Almanzar
When the offseason began, many speculated that David Price's time with the Rays was coming to an end, as the ace southpaw would be traded at the height of his remaining value (two years of team control) and Tampa Bay could save money and add even more quality prospects to their system. The perception amongst rival executives now, however, is that Price will stay put through the coming season, ESPN's Buster Olney reports in his latest Insider-only column. "Ninety percent chance he stays," one rival executive said. "The [trade] market hasn't materialized." MLBTR readers seem to agree with that sentiment — according to a recent poll, less than 31% of respondees feel that Price will be pitching elsewhere by Opening Day.
Here's some more news from around the AL East…
- Also from Olney's piece, some executives believe the Yankees and Dodgers will be the two final players in the race for Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees have the greater need for pitching and perhaps even more pressure to sign Tanaka now that most of Alex Rodriguez's salary is off the books for 2014. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have shown they'll pay any price for a player they want, and are "more shameless in their bidding," according to some rival executives.
- If the Yankees can't sign Tanaka, they could again focus on staying under the $189MM luxury tax limit, WEEI.com's Rob Bradford speculates. Rodriguez's suspension could make the Yankees' payroll decision more difficult, as had A-Rod's 2014 salary still been fully owed, New York could've added Tanaka and other needed upgrades with the assumption that they'd be well over the $189MM threshold. If Tanaka signs elsewhere, however, Bradford isn't sure that the Yankees would be willing to pay another big luxury tax penalty for one of the other big free agent starters (Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana or Matt Garza) and they surely wouldn't go over $189MM just to sign a closer.
- If recent signees Delmon Young and Alexi Casilla make the Orioles' roster, it could hurt their chances of keeping Rule 5 Draft selection Michael Almanzar, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes. Almanzar was taken by the O's from the Red Sox in last month's draft, and if Almanzar isn't on the Major League roster for the entire 2014 season, Baltimore has to offer him back to Boston for $25K.
- CSNBaltimore.com's Rich Dubroff predicts 24 of the 25 players who he feels will make the Orioles' Opening Day roster. The 25th spot is being left open for a starting pitcher from outside the organization, as Dubroff feels the O's will add a starter between now and the start of Spring Training.
AL Notes: Jenks, Tanaka, Angels, Yankees, Wieters
Former White Sox reliever Bobby Jenks has his sights set on a return to baseball, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin. As Merkin chronicles, mutually compounding difficulties with injury and addiction saw the once-feared closer wash out of baseball after an ill-fated season with the Red Sox in 2011. Still just shy of 33 years of age, Jenks says that he is mentally prepared to try and work his way back to the hill.
Here are some notes from the American League to round out the evening:
- Though reports from Japan have tabbed the Angels as one of the favorites to land Masahiro Tanaka, GM Jerry Dipoto confirmed today that his club was not among the teams that met with the Japanese sensation last week in Los Angeles, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. "We did not meet with Tanaka," said Dipoto. "We were not scheduled to meet with him." The GM otherwise declined to comment, but DiGiovanna offers on Twitter that the lack of a face-to-face could indicate that the Halos "won't break [the] bank" for Tanaka.
- For the Yankees, signing Tanaka could be the key to making the team a serious post-season contender, opines MLB.com's Richard Justice. Though another arm could be added if Tanaka goes elsewhere, Justice notes that the club has shown little interest in other top starters like Ervin Santana and Matt Garza.
- While the suspension of Alex Rodriguez will unquestionably benefit the Yanks' bottom line, writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com, it nevertheless leaves the club with major questions in the infield. With injury and aging concerns around the diamond, accompanied by seemingly limited upside, Castrovince says that the infield is a close second to starting pitching in terms of need. Though chatter of a Brandon Phillips deal has faded, Castrovince writes that a swap of some kind still "makes a ton of sense" for both the Yankees and Reds.
- Catcher Matt Wieters has long been rumored as an extension candidate for the Orioles, as the 27-year-old is entering his second-to-last arb-eligible campaign. From the player's perspective, however, the urgency of a new deal is seemingly fading, according to a report from Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter). "It's not a big worry for me," said Wieters. "I think in years past it's taken a little more of my thoughts than this year." With a $5.5MM arbitration payday already in his pocket, and a projected $7.9MM on the way for 2014, it is certainly understandable that Wieters is increasingly comfortable with waiting to hit the open market.
Yankees Have Asked Padres About Trade For Infielder
The Yankees have inquired with the Padres about the possibility of trading for some of San Diego's infield depth, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The most realistic target is utilityman Logan Forsythe, according to Morosi.
Though New York would undoubtedly like to acquire a more impactful player, such as third baseman Chase Headley, Morosi explains that the Yankees farm system does not have enough talent to swing such a move. That makes a more modest acquisition more likely, though of course New York has several utility options (including Eduardo Nunez and Brendan Ryan) already under contract.
The 26-year Forsythe is a versatile fielder, and Morosi notes that his right-handed bat could make him a platoon option with Kelly Johnson at third. (It is worth noting, however, that Johnson has actually hit slightly better against southpaws over his career than he has against opposite-handed pitching.) Forsythe would also provide insurance for Brian Roberts at second, as he has spent the majority of his MLB time at the keystone.
Over 762 career plate appearances between 2011-13, Forsythe has a cumulative .241/.310/.349 line. He has also registered 17 stolen bases over that period. After a solid 2012 campaign in which he registered a .273/.343/.390 triple-slash (good for a 107 OPS+), Forsythe struggled last year with a .214/.281/.332 mark.
Free Agent Notes: Tanaka, Santana, Reynolds, Baker, Guerrier
Here is the latest on several free agent situations around the league:
- While not technically a free agent, Masahiro Tanaka can still be signed by any club that is also willing to pay his $20MM posting fee. Reports out of Japan indicate that the Yankees and Dodgers are the favorites to land the 25-year-old righty, tweets David Waldstein of the New York Times, with Tanaka's wife reportedly interested in landing on the West Coast. The Angels are also said to be among the top suitors for Tanaka's services, says MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez (referencing a recent report from Japanese outlet Sports Hochi).
- The Orioles, Twins, and Yankees recently asked for medicals on righty Ervin Santana, reports FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal. (Links to Twitter.) New York appears only to be performing due diligence, says Rosenthal, who notes that Santana's flyball tendencies make him a poor fit at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, the Twins seem unlikely to add another free agent starter, Rosenthal adds.
- There are at least five clubs that "have been in on" infielder/DH Mark Reynolds, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). The teams include the Nationals, Rangers, Twins, Orioles, and Yankees.
- Right-handed starter Scott Baker has several minor league offers in hand but is holding out for a guaranteed MLB deal, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. The Twins have not been interested in a reunion thus far, Wolfson adds.
- Another former Twin who spent time with the Cubs last year, right-handed reliever Matt Guerrier, is set to throw off of a mound on Friday as he rehabs from an elbow injury suffered late last year, Wolfson tweets. Minnesota is interested in potentially bringing him back, according to Wolfson.
Yankees Sign Brian Roberts
JAN. 13: After nearly a month, Roberts' deal with the Yankees is now official, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). Roberts will receive Alex Rodriguez's 40-man roster spot.
Sherman also has the breakdown of Roberts' incentives. He will receive $175K for reaching 250 and 300 plate appearances, $250K for 350 and 400 plate appearances, $300K for 450 and 500 plate appearances, $350K for 550 plate appearances and $400K for 600 and 650 plate appearances (Twitter link). All told, Roberts can earn $2.6MM worth of incentives (as the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly reported last month), meaning he can earn a total of $4.6MM on his one-year deal.
DEC. 17: The Yankees and second baseman Brian Roberts have agreed to a one-year deal worth $2MM plus incentives, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Morosi's colleague, Ken Rosenthal, reported last night that the two sides were likely to reach an agreement. Roberts is represented by Relativity Baseball (formerly known as SFX).
The 36-year-old Roberts played in 77 games last season — his highest total since 2009. He's spent his entire career with the Orioles to date, finishing a four-year, $40MM extension this past season that saw him play just 192 games and slash just .246/.310/.359 due to injuries. Over the life of that contract, Roberts was sidelined for significant amounts of time due to an abdominal strain, two concussions (one of which caused him to miss more than an entire season's worth of games), hip surgery and hamstring surgery.
Prior to that onslaught of injuries, the switch-hitting Roberts was a consistent threat at the plate and on the basepaths. From 2004-09, he batted .290/.365/.438 and averaged 46 doubles, four triples, 12 homers and 35 stolen bases per season. He's spent his entire career with to this point with the Orioles, who selected him with the 50th overall pick in the 1999 draft as compensation for the loss of free agent Rafael Palmeiro.
As Rosenthal notes (on Twitter), Roberts' low base salary will allow the Yankees to pursue other infield options. Mark Reynolds remains a possibility, and the team has also expressed interest in trading for Dustin Ackley. New York was also linked to Brandon Phillips in a rumor that gained quite a bit of attention, but that doesn't appear to be a likely outcome at this point.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Headley, Yankees
The Red Sox are faced with a problem unique to big-market teams, John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes. That question is how to spend all their money. Baseball has clamped down on spending on amateur talent, and the Angels' recent example shows the problems inherent in free-agent spending sprees. The Red Sox will have plenty of money coming off the books next offseason, perhaps giving them $50MM with which to spend. The Red Sox haven't spent heavily on top free agents recently, letting Jacoby Ellsbury depart and not signing Brian McCann. But Tomase suggests they'll continue to spend to add depth and build a "strong middle class." They could also look to extend their own stars, perhaps including Jon Lester and/or David Ortiz. Here are more notes from the AL East.
- The Yankees have not made any recent attempts to trade for Padres third baseman Chase Headley, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News tweets. Yesterday's news confirmed that Alex Rodriguez will be out for the entire 2014 season, but the Yankees could well go with their existing options at third.
- Kelly Johnson and Eduardo Nunez could receive significant innings at third base this year, Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler tells Martino. "We’ll look left, we’ll look right, we’ll look under rocks and see if something can work itself out and makes sense," says Eppler. "But with Kelly Johnson, who we spoke to earlier in the season … before we came to an agreement with him, we talked to him about playing third base … as well as second base and there’s outfield."
A-Rod Notes: Spring Training, Independent Ball
After news of Alex Rodriguez's suspension broke yesterday, A-Rod continues to occupy the headlines today, in part because of 60 Minutes' interviews with Tony Bosch, Bud Selig, MLB's Rob Manfred and Rodriguez's attorney Joe Tacopina. You can watch the segment here. Here's more on the A-Rod saga.
- The group best positioned to prevent A-Rod from attending spring training is his Yankees teammates, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Since Rodriguez's suspension will prevent him from playing for the Yankees in 2014, his presence at spring training does not benefit the team. Instead, Sherman says, "[t]his would be about tweaking MLB and/or the Yankees while making sure to avoid what he dreads so much — irrelevancy." He would be a distraction. Sherman suggests that Rodriguez's teammates, perhaps led by Derek Jeter, could ask A-Rod not to attend spring training. If he refuses, Yankees players could explain their preferences to the media.
- Releasing Rodriguez wouldn't make sense, Sherman says, because A-Rod will have to take additional drug tests in the coming year. If he were to fail a test, or face any other kind of additional punishment, the Yankees would be off the hook for even more salary.
- One potential obstacle to Rodriguez playing independent baseball this summer is that the Yankees still control his rights, USA Today's Bob Nightengale writes. That means they can, say, send him to their spring training facility in Tampa and have him work out there. He needs the Yankees' permission to play elsewhere, and the Yankees can help avoid a "sideshow" by denying him that privilege.