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Rockies, Nolan Arenado Agree To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2017 at 12:17pm CDT

The Rockies and third baseman Nolan Arenado have agreed to a two-year deal that comes with a guaranteed $29.5MM, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Arenado will earn $11.75MM in 2017 and $17.75MM in 2018. Arenado will be arbitration-eligible one final time after this two-year deal is up, and he can become a free agent after the 2019 season.

That two-year rate constitutes a slight bump over the $28.65MM deal worked out last winter between Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays. While Arenado doesn’t have the MVP award that Donaldson brought into his second year of arb eligibility as a Super Two, the former was working from a higher first-year arb salary ($5MM).

MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected that Arenado would earn $13.1MM this year. Instead, he’ll take slightly less, and will perhaps give up some upside for the following season, in exchange for the certainty of the two-year arrangement.

Arenado is a highly valuable all-around player, delivering value with his glove and his bat. It’s the latter skill that pays through the arb process, though, and Arenado showed plenty in 2016. With Coors Field helping to boost his counting stats somewhat, Arenado turned in a second-straight season in which he led the National League in home runs and RBI. Though it isn’t a particularly notable factor in arbitration, it’s worth noting too that Arenado’s OBP also rose (from .323 to .362) as he significantly improved in the plate discipline department by doubling his walk tally from 34 to 68.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Dallas Keuchel

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2017 at 11:52am CDT

The Astros have avoided arbitration with left-hander Dallas Keuchel by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $9.15MM, reports MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). The 2015 Cy Young winner is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.

Keuchel earns a raise over the $7.25MM salary he earned last year — a record for a first-time-eligible pitcher in arbitration — and will be arbitration-eligible once more next winter before hitting the open market following the 2018 season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $9.5MM salary for Keuchel.

The 29-year-old Keuchel wasn’t able to replicate his dominant 2015 effort, but he still took the ball for the Astros 26 times and tallied 168 innings of 4.55 ERA ball to go along with 7.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a robust 56.7 percent ground-ball rate in 2016. Health may have been a factor for the downturn in Keuchel’s performance, as he shoulder troubles limited him to just seven starts after the All-Star break. Keuchel didn’t make an appearance after Aug. 27 this past season, though there’s been no word that the effects of that injury will linger into 2017, and Keuchel never required surgery to correct the issue.

Dodgers To Sign Jose Miguel Fernandez

By Mark Polishuk | January 12, 2017 at 10:27pm CDT

The Dodgers and Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez have reportedly struck agreement on a minor league contract. He is set to receive a $200K signing bonus. Fernandez is exempt from international bonus pools due to his age and experience in Cuba’s Serie Nacional.

Fernandez left Cuba in December 2015, with Major League Baseball officially granting his free agency last April. He drew wide attention from scouts and evaluators during multiple showcases last year, with the Padres long thought to be one of the favorites to sign the 28-year-old and the Athletics also reportedly showing strong interest. Instead, it seems as if Fernandez will become the latest in a long line of Cuban talents to suit up in Dodger blue.

Back in April 2015, Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked Fernandez as the third-best player in Cuba, with Badler praising the left-handed hitter’s approach at the plate, contact skills and plate discipline. Fernandez has slashed .319/.403/.423 over 2580 career plate appearances in the Serie Nacional, recording 263 walks against just 113 strikeouts. Badler felt Fernandez was only an “adequate” fielder at second base and graded his power and baserunning as below average, though overall, Fernandez was thought to be a player capable of more or less stepping right into the major leagues.

Thanks to a previous failed attempt to defect, however, Fernandez hasn’t played since 2014, so he’ll certainly need some time in the minors to get back into proper game shape. If he is able to regain his old form and stick at his old position — Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that Fernandez has been mostly playing third base in winter ball action — he stands out as an intriguing possibility for the Dodgers’ wide-open second base spot.

With Micah Johnson designated for assignment recently, it seems at present that Enrique Hernandez, Charlie Culberson and Chris Taylor are the incumbent candidates on the Dodgers’ roster. Jack of all trades Austin Barnes might also factor in the mix. Helping Fernandez’s cause, perhaps, is the fact that all of those players — excepting Johnson, who’s in DFA limbo — hit from the right side.

Of course, the Dodgers could still look outside the organization. Though L.A. has been widely linked to Brian Dozier in trade rumors, those talks seem to have cooled of late. The Dodgers have also explored trades for players like the Rays’ Logan Forsythe and the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler, while Chase Utley is still available as a possible fallback option if a bigger-name upgrade can’t be acquired.

MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez first said a deal was close (via Twitter). Ben Badler of Baseball America reported the terms. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag said the agreement was finalized (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of Alyson Boyer Rode.

2017 MLB Arbitration Tracker

By Tim Dierkes | January 12, 2017 at 3:55pm CDT

Our 2017 MLB arbitration tracker is now available! The tracker displays all arbitration eligible players, with fields for team, service time, player and team submissions, the midpoint, and the settlement amount. You can filter by team, signing status, service time, Super Two status, and whether a hearing occurred. For unsigned players, arbitration figures will be exchanged tomorrow.

You can bookmark MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker here, or you can find it in the Tools menu at the top of the site.

MLBTR is also the only place for salary projections for every arbitration eligible player, which you can find here.

Mariners Acquire Drew Smyly For Mallex Smith, Two Prospects

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 11, 2017 at 3:01pm CDT

The Mariners have struck yet another two-deal day, as Seattle has announced the acquisition of lefty Drew Smyly from the Rays. Tampa Bay will pick up center fielder Mallex Smith — who was just added by Seattle in a trade with the Braves — along with minor league infielder Carlos Vargas and minor league lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

This move represents a continuation of an immensely active offseason for the Jerry Dipoto-led Mariners front office. The club will surely install Smyly in its rotation, hoping that the 27-year-old southpaw can regain the form that he showed prior to a disappointing 2016 campaign. He’ll slot in alongside fellow newcomer Yovani Gallardo — acquired last week in a straight-up swap that sent Seth Smith to Baltimore — and holdovers Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton.

Despite carrying an ugly 4.88 ERA in 2016, Smyly did post career highs in both starts (30) and innings (175 1/3). And he managed to post a solid 8.6 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9, though his groundball rate sat at just 31.3% and he allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings. If he can tamp down the long balls and remain healthy, perhaps there’s reason to think that Smyly will return to being a solid mid-rotation piece for Seattle, particularly given the excellent defensive trio that figures to roam the outfield at Safeco Field. Leonys Martin will return in center field and be flanked by trade acquisitions Jarrod Dyson and Mitch Haniger to to provide a strong defensive unit. Another pair of strong defenders, Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia, are also present beyond that presumptive starting trio.

[Related: Updated Mariners Depth Chart and Mariners Payroll Info]

The M’s will only control Smyly for two years, as the second-time arb-eligible hurler is set to reach the open market after the 2018 campaign. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project him to earn $6.9MM via arbitration for the coming season — his second trip through the arb process as a Super Two player.

Dipoto tells Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link) that he “probably spent more time through the course of the offseason trying to acquire Drew Smyly than any other player.” Clearly, then, the M’s had targeted the lefty all along, though it took another deal to get the assets needed to make it happen.

When Seattle picked up Smith earlier today (along with Shae Simmons) in a trade that cost the team prospects Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows, it obviously did so with intentions to flip Smith. He was evidently targeted by the Rays, despite the continued presence of Kevin Kiermaier in center and the recent signing of Colby Rasmus.

It’s certainly plausible to imagine those players co-existing on the MLB roster, though the presence of Steven Souza, Corey Dickerson, and others could complicate maters. Alternatively, Smith might simply start the year in Triple-A, unless the Rays find yet another deal that shifts some assets.

[Related: Updated Tampa Bay Rays Depth Chart and Rays Payroll Info]

Smith is primarily valued for his defense and baserunning, though he has put up strong numbers at the plate during much of his minor-league career. He’s most valuable playing up the middle but could also presumably function in a corner spot while occasionally spelling Kiermaier in center. Though Smith is generally regarded as a strong defender, Kiermaier is one of the game’s premier defenders in center field and doesn’t figure to be displaced anytime soon.

In making this deal, Tampa Bay is acquiring at least five years of Smith’s services. The 23-year-old (24 in May) logged exactly one year of service time in the Majors last year. Another full year would put him on track to be arbitration-eligible following the 2019 season and eligible for free agency following the completion of the 2021 campaign, although if he spends even three to four weeks in the minors to open the season, Tampa Bay would gain another year of club control (while also putting Smith on track for Super Two status).

Smith’s big league debut last year was born out of necessity, as he was called up to the Majors when Ender Inciarte hit the disabled list early in the year. Smith didn’t hit much early on, but the Braves liked his speed and glovework enough to keep him around even when Inciarte returned. A fractured thumb would ultimately cost Smith roughly three months of the season. He batted a lackluster .238/.316/.365 in 215 plate appearances on the season as a whole, though he’d rebounded from a poor start to hit .272/.338/.440 in 43 games from late April until the time of his injury in mid-June. Paired with his 80-grade speed, that type of production would likely elate the Rays, though his defensive prowess would allow Smith to deliver value even if he can’t replicate that output over the course of a full season.

Yarbrough, who turned 25 on New Year’s Eve, rated as the Mariners’ No. 11 prospect per MLB.com, and Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper tweets that he’d have placed 12th on BA’s soon-to-be-released list of the Mariners’ top 30 prospects. Per Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com, Yarbrough’s fastball sits 91-93 mph and scrapes the mid-90s at times, and he also has an above-average changeup. The MLB.com duo praises Yarbrough’s “oustanding” command and strong ground-ball tendencies, adding that improvement on his breaking ball could ultimately make him a mid-rotation starter. If not, he projects as a quality lefty relief piece due to his fastball, slider and command.

Vargas is still just 17 years of age — he’ll turn 18 in March — and ranked as one of the top available international prospects on the market a couple of years ago. Cooper tweets that he was set to rank 26th on Seattle’s forthcoming top 30 prospect list, and there’s reason to believe he could carry even more upside than that most ranking would suggest. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, for instance, tweets that there’s “sneaky” value in Vargas, whom he tabs as eventual third baseman with “big pull power projection” and a good approach.

In writing about Vargas last spring, BA’s Ben Badler noted that he has too many moving parts in his swing but has displayed a strong baseball IQ and an impressive ability to make adjustments at the behest of the Mariners’ staff. Badler also credited Vargas with above-average raw power, an ability to hit the ball the opposite way, and an above-average arm with a quick release. In 62 games/256 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League last year, Vargas batted .242/.344/.391 with seven homers, 11 doubles and nearly as many walks (32) as strikeouts (35).

Braves Acquire Luiz Gohara & Thomas Burrows From Mariners For Mallex Smith & Shae Simmons

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2017 at 1:34pm CDT

The Braves and Mariners have announced a trade involving younger assets. Atlanta will receive lefties Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows, while Seattle will pick up outfielder Mallex Smith and righty Shae Simmons. Seattle has designated righty Cody Martin to clear roster space.

The 20-year-old Gohara has only reached the Class A level, but is considered a high-quality pitching prospect. He worked to a 1.81 ERA over 69 2/3 total minor league frames in 2016, with 10.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. MLB.com rated him Seattle’s fifth-best prospect, while Baseball America placed him third among the organization’s pre-MLB assets.

A rare Brazilian pitching prospect, Gohara impresses with a mid-nineties heater, promising slider, and still-developing change that give him the promise of a useful three-pitch mix that could work in a starting role at the game’s highest level.

Burrows also checked in on MLB.com’s ranking of the M’s prospects, placing 25th. The collegiate closer is a two-pitch hurler who was taken in the fourth round of the 2016 draft. He showed well at the low-A level in his first taste of professional ball, allowing just seven earned runs with 37 strikeouts against 11 walks over his 24 2/3 innings. The 22-year-old figures to move rather quickly through the system given his collegiate pedigree.

[RELATED: Updated Braves & Mariners Depth Charts]

For the Mariners, Smith represents yet another fleet-footed outfielder. He’s still optionable, and may not have much daylight to crack the MLB roster to start the 2016 season, but could figure as a near-term piece who also comes with five full seasons of control. Smith had been viewed as a key prospect for the Braves, but was somewhat expendable with the team locking up Ender Inciarte for the foreseeable future and fellow youngster Dustin Peterson also rising through the system.

Smith, 23, missed time last year with a thumb injury, but got his first taste of the big leagues in a fairly extended stretch. Over 215 plate appearances, he slashed .238/.316/.365 and swiped 16 bases while drawing strong defensive ratings. He has long been a major stolen-base threat in the minors, and could yet turn into a semi-regular major leaguer if he’s able to drive up his batting average. Smith posted a roughly average .302 BABIP last year, but has traditionally carried much higher marks in the minors thanks to his speed.

The 26-year-old Simmons, meanwhile, comes with four years of remaining control. He has thrown 28 1/3 total major league innings, wrapped around a Tommy John procedure, with a 2.54 ERA and 8.3 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9. The high-octane reliever also showed well at Triple-A in 2016 and has a history of lofty strikeout totals in the minors, though he has also struggled at times with command.

Adding two 40-man players led to the move to bump Martin, a 27-year-old who has seen action in each of the past two major league seasons with three organizations (including the Braves, Athletics, and Mariners). He was hit hard in his first go-round, but posted a 3.86 ERA over 25 2/3 innings last year. Still, Martin managed only 15 strikeouts to go with nine walks while surrendering five long balls in that stretch. He was much better at Triple-A, where he worked mostly as a starter. At the highest level of the minors in 2016, Martin posted a 3.62 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 across 114 1/3 frames.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Could Seth Maness’s Elbow Surgery Represent A Tommy John Alternative?

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2017 at 10:18am CDT

Former Cardinals reliever Seth Maness underwent elbow surgery in mid-August; he was ultimately non-tendered and remains a free agent. But there’s more to the story, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a piece that demands a full read.

As Goold documents, Maness underwent a somewhat experimental “primary repair” procedure to his ulnar collateral ligament that could allow him to return by the start of the 2017 season. If it works, the surgery will potentially save Maness from the lengthy and uncertain process of rehabbing from a UCL replacement — what’s commonly known as Tommy John surgery.

Maness, 28, became the first current MLB pitcher to undergo this particular procedure. Doctors cannot determine whether the less-demanding approach is feasible until they have opened the patient’s elbow. But if the UCL is in good enough shape, and the location of the tear is appropriate, then the “UCL repair with internal brace construction” can be attempted in lieu of utilizing a donor ligament for a full replacement.

If it’s achievable, the repair effort has the potential to shave significant time off of the rehab process for a pitcher. In Maness’s case, he’s on track to take the mound later this week (within five months of his surgery) and perhaps return to major league action by Opening Day (i.e., about seven and a half months from the date of the procedure). That’s well short of the year-plus rehabilitation timeline required for a typical, first-time TJ patient.

“It has that potential to be big,” said Dr. George Paletta, the surgeon who worked on Maness’s elbow. Other medical and industry figures who spoke with Goold — including Dr. Jeffrey Dugas, who also performs this surgery — similarly described the primary repair procedure in those guardedly optimistic terms. While there’s still a need for sufficient observable data, initial results from lower-level pitchers have been promising. (In other words, Maness isn’t exactly serving as a guinea pig.)

Goold details the current findings, and you’ll want to read his exhaustive piece for the full scope. The takeaway, though, is that pitchers who have qualified for and received this TJ alternative have generally shown a strong track record of returning to competitive action in about six and a half months, with none requiring subsequent re-repairs or TJ procedures.

Needless to say, the possibility of a new approach for at least some pitchers with UCL tears — an all-too-common problem in today’s game — holds out significant hope. While the legendary TJ procedure offers a path back for hurlers who once would’ve seen their careers fully derailed, it continues to be a long road that can’t be completed by all who take it.

There have been other efforts, too, that are also worth following. Angels starter Garrett Richards is perhaps the primary example of therapy attempts being undertaking to stave off surgery of any kind. He is currently slated to report for a full Spring Training after receiving platelet-rich plasma and stem-cell treatments on his injured right elbow.

All eyes will be on both Maness and Richards — among others — as they seek both to resume their own careers and provide a new way forward for injured pitchers. Assessing the efficacy of these approaches, refining the methods, and determining when to deploy each of the possible strategies will no doubt continue to be a work in progress. But adding less-drastic alternatives to the classic Tommy John surgery could potentially go a long way toward allowing players to maintain their career paths while protecting teams’ personnel investments.

Beyond the obvious, these new approaches also present the possibility of creating more proactive ways of dealing with elbow problems. Indeed, as Paletta tells Goold, the primary repair surgery might allow for greater confidence in “moving to surgery early on,” and the same might well hold of the treatment approaches. Rather than pitching through pain, or just resting and hoping, at least some pitchers may one day be able to turn to these new techniques — if they’re proven to work — before it becomes necessary to undergo a full UCL replacement.

Of course, it’s still preferable to forestall the necessity of these less-invasive approaches, even if they are shown to be effective. With so many valuable pitchers succumbing to Tommy John surgery, MLBTR and contributor Bradley Woodrum undertook a study last winter to assess the statistical likelihood of future UCL replacement. Though the identified risk factors account for only a small portion of the risk for a given pitcher, that study (and future efforts) may also help organizations and their medical staffs seek ways to maintain elbow health.

Greg Holland Seeks Two-Year Deal With Opt-Out

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2017 at 8:54am CDT

Free-agent righty Greg Holland is arguably the highest-upside reliever left on the open market, and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides some notable updates on his situation. The 31-year-old is in a somewhat unusual spot as a free agent, in that he brings a sparkling track record but is also seeking to return from a long layoff due to Tommy John surgery.

Given his health situation and also the evident interest around the league, Holland seeks a two-year deal that would allow him to opt out after the first season, according to Heyman. That’s the same structure that Brian Wilson landed with the Dodgers before the 2014 season, though he had made it back to the hill late in the prior campaign.

In Holland’s case, there’s perhaps greater uncertainty, but also greater upside. He took a step back in his most recent action, in 2015, but that may well have been due to the elbow issues that led to his surgery. Over the prior four campaigns, Holland was one of the game’s very best relievers, as he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.

There’s interest in Holland’s proposed two-year arrangement, per the report. Among the teams still pursuing him are the Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Rays. While the Cubs showed prior interest, it’s not clear whether they are still in. And the Royals have also indicated a desire to bring back their former closer, though it seems that the team’s payroll situation may not allow for a competitive bid.

That group of organizations would presumably offer Holland a variety of possible roles. The Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Royals (if they’re involved) could all promise him first dibs on closing roles, while the Dodgers and perhaps the Cubs are more likely to view the veteran as a setup man. Tampa Bay, perhaps, might be most interested in the event that it strikes a deal for incumbent closer Alex Colome. Whether and to what extent the chance to take hold of the ninth is an important factor in Holland’s decisionmaking is not immediately clear.

Angels Have Interest In Matt Wieters

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2017 at 8:32am CDT

The Angels have at least had internal discussions regarding the possibility of pursuing free-agent catcher Matt Wieters, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Whether the team will emerge as a serious bidder remains to be seen, however.

As things stand, the Halos would open the year with Martin Maldonado and Carlos Perez atop their catching depth chart. Maldonado was acquired in a swap earlier this winter that sent fellow backstop Jett Bandy to the Brewers. Both of those players have historically served in part-time roles; neither has reached 300 plate appearances or ended a single campaign with league-average offensive production.

Wieters, meanwhile, has seen much heavier usage over his career with the Orioles. And as a switch hitter who traditionally fares much better against right-handed pitching, he’d pair rather easily with either of the existing players. Though he missed significant time in 2014 and 2015, and ultimately required Tommy John surgery, he was able to return to post a full 2016 campaign in which he logged 117 games behind the plate.

Of course, it’s not clear whether Wieters is still quite the player that he once was. He has turned in several quality offensive seasons, but hit just .243/.302/.409 last year — though he did contribute a healthy tally of 17 home runs. And while Wieters has long been considered a sturdy defender, he doesn’t rate well at framing pitches.

It is certainly interesting to hear of the Angels’ interest. There hasn’t been much chatter surrounding Wieters, who has watched as several potential suitors pursued other routes to fill their needs behind the dish. But there are a few possible landing spots elsewhere; the Diamondbacks have some interest, as might the Nationals in the right circumstances.

Rangers “Check In” On Mark Trumbo

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2017 at 8:14am CDT

The Rangers have at least “check[ed] in” on free-agent slugger Mark Trumbo, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. The extent of the team’s interest, though, isn’t yet clear.

Texas had been said to be the favorite to add Mike Napoli, another right-handed power hitter who’d presumably step in at first base and/or DH. But those talks haven’t proceeded as quickly as had seemed likely; per Heyman, the Rangers and Napoli aren’t quite seeing eye to eye on a deal.

That seems to have opened up at least some space for the Rangers to consider alternatives. Trumbo, who’ll turn 31 in a few days, is significantly younger than the 35-year-old Napoli. That had led to expectations that he’d be able to land a lengthier contract, though at present there’s no indication of long-term interest on the market. Of course, despite his prodigious power output — including a league-leading 47 bombs in 2016 — Trumbo also lags Napoli in on-base ability with a career .303 mark. And while the former is theoretically capable of playing the outfield, he has never drawn strong reviews for his glovework on the grass.

Trumbo remains the top unsigned player on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list. But it’s fair to wonder whether the Rangers are looking mostly for a chance at a relative bargain by opening up a dialogue with his representatives. That’s the course the team pursued last year with Ian Desmond — who required the sacrifice of a draft choice, as would Trumbo — and Texas has shown little inclination to hand out major, long-term contracts this winter. The Rangers hold what’s currently the 26th choice in the 2017 draft.

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