Tigers Notes: Carpenter, Mize, Maeda
A pair of injured Tigers faced off in live batting practice yesterday, highlighting their progress towards returning to action. Outfielder Kerry Carpenter and right-hander Casey Mize both looked good during the session, which included a long home run and a single off Mize by Carpenter.
Carpenter, 27 in September, has been on the IL since May due to a lumbar spine stress fracture. He was in the midst of an incredible season when he hit the shelf, slashing a fantastic .283/.347/.572 with 10 doubles, four triples, and eight home runs in just 50 games. That performance was good enough for an excellent wRC+ of 149, and Carpenter’s return from the shelf should provide a big boost to the Tigers lineup down the stretch even as they’ve largely fallen out of playoff contention at this point. That return could be just over the horizon, as Carpenter told reporters (including Chris McCoskey of The Detroit News) yesterday that he’ll “probably” be starting a rehab assignment sometime this week. With both Carpenter and Riley Greene on the IL at the moment, the Tigers are currently relying on an outfield of Matt Vierling, Wenceel Perez, and Parker Meadows.
Despite the damage dealt by Carpenter, Mize also reportedly looked good during his two innings of work yesterday. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Greene (who also faced Mize yesterday) told reporters that the right-hander looked good and threw all of his pitches with confidence during the outing. Mize, who has been on the shelf for just over a month now due a hamstring strain, won’t be eligible to return from the 60-day IL until August 31 but could begin a rehab assignment of his own at some point in the near future as he builds back up towards MLB action. Mize’s 16 starts this year have been something of a mixed bag with a league average 4.23 ERA but a much stronger 3.69 FIP in 78 2/3 innings of work, though getting on the field at all was a meaningful step for the first overall pick of the 2018 draft after he made just two starts in 2022 and missed the whole 2023 campaign due to Tommy John surgery.
Mize’s eventual return to the rotation for the Tigers is sure to be a welcome one given the relatively dire situation the club’s starting staff has found itself in recently. After the club dealt Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers at the deadline and saw Reese Olson join Mize on the shelf due to shoulder strain late last month, the club is facing plenty of uncertainty behind ace Tarik Skubal. Rookies Bryan Sammons and Keider Montero have struggled to ERAs north of 5.00 and 6.00 respectively as fill-in starters this year while veteran righty Kenta Maeda had a 7.26 ERA in 16 starts before being moved to the bullpen just before the All-Star break.
Maeda has pitched somewhat better since moving to the bullpen, with a 4.40 ERA and a stronger 4.14 FIP in 14 1/3 innings of work across four appearances. As noted by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, manager A.J. Hinch recently told reporters that while the club expects the veteran to rejoin the rotation proper at some point, their current plan is to keep him in the bullpen for the time being while trying to get him “regular work that’s similar to a starting pitcher.” So far, that’s seemed to mean using Maeda as a bulk arm following an opener while mostly keeping him on a starting pitcher’s schedule. The Tigers are surely hoping that the 36-year-old can get right in the final months of the 2024 season as they look ahead to the final year of his two-year, $24MM contract in 2025.
AL West Notes: Tucker, Miller, Mariners
Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has been on the injured list due to a right shin contusion for nearly two months now, but it doesn’t appear as though he’s likely to join the club’s lineup anytime soon as they attempt to pull away from the Mariners in a tight race for the AL West crown. As manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) earlier today, the club is not yet certain if Tucker will be able to contribute in the majors at any point in the month of August. Espada described the situation with Tucker as a day-to-day situation, adding that while it’s a “possibility” he could play at some point this month it would be “too aggressive” for him to commit to that timeline.
It’s a frustrating update for Astros fans, as Tucker had been without a doubt the club’s best hitter prior to the injury. In 262 trips to the plate across 60 games this year, the 27-year-old was slashing an otherworldly .266/.395/.584 (172 wRC+) that made him one of the top bats in the entire sport at the time of his injury. In his absence, the Astros have turned their season around in a big way with a 32-19 record since the start of June thanks in large part to strong offensive performances from previously-struggling players like Yainer Diaz and Alex Bregman. With more of the Houston lineup contributing on a daily basis in recent weeks, it’s easy to imagine the return of Tucker providing the lineup with an additional spark that could help buoy the club as they pursue their eighth consecutive appearance in the ALCS. Of course, even a return sometime in September could give the young star plenty of time to prepare for a potential playoff run while still meaningfully contributing to games down the stretch.
More from around the AL West:
- The Athletics offered a positive update regarding injured closer Mason Miller today, as relayed by MLB.com’s Martín Gallegos. According to Gallegos, Miller played catch without his cast today as he rehabs from a fractured finger in his non-throwing hand. The next step for the righty is to throw a live bullpen session in a simulated game on Monday. The 25-year-old phenom has become one of league’s best-known relievers this year by dominating to a 2.21 ERA with a 1.72 FIP in 40 2/3 innings of work as Oakland’s closer, a role that’s seen him rack up 15 saves. Miller last pitched on July 22 and was placed on the IL a few days later after fracturing his left pinkie finger in the club’s training room. If that bullpen session goes well, it seems possible that the righty might be able to skip a rehab assignment entirely and return not long after he’s first eligible to come off the shelf on August 7.
- Mariners fans received some unfortunate news from down on the farm recently as Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that shortstop Felnin Celesten underwent season-ending surgery to repair a preexisting hamate injury. Celesten, 18, is the club’s #5 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and was among the top prospects of the 2023 class of international amateurs. Signed out of the Dominican Republic to a $4.7MM bonus, Celesten is considered a high-floor prospect with a strong defensive reputation at shortstop and solid all-around tools. In his first taste of stateside ball this year, Celesten slashed an excellent .352/.431/.568 in 32 Arizona Complex League games before being sidelined by injury. It seems likely he’ll get his first taste of full-season ball sometimes next year once he’s returned from rehab.
NL West Notes: Snell, Musgrove, Muncy, Blackmon
Blake Snell made some more baseball history last night when the two-time Cy Young Award winner threw a no-hitter against the Reds. The 18th no-hit game in the history of the New York/San Francisco Giants franchise, Snell’s gem saw him rack up 11 strikeouts against three walks on 114 pitches. It was also the first time Snell had ever thrown eight full innings in any of his 202 career starts, let alone a complete game.
The no-no continues what has now become one of the better pitching stretches of all time. Snell has an 0.55 ERA over his last five starts (33 IP), in what has been an incredible turn-around after an injury-plagued first half of the season. Signing with the Giants only in the midpoint of March, the lack of a proper Spring Training resulted in Snell posting a 9.51 ERA in his first 23 2/3 innings and six starts, as well a pair of trips to the injured list. It was after his latest return from the IL that Snell began his amazing five-start run, capped off with his legendary game yesterday in Cincinnati. While the Giants received plenty of trade interest in Snell prior to last Tuesday’s deadline, keeping an in-form ace will go a long way towards helping San Francisco’s chances at the playoffs.
More from around the NL West…
- Joe Musgrove will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Sunday, the Padres righty told Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters. Musgrove said his first rehab outing is slated to be 45-50 pitches over three innings, adding “I feel healthy and I feel like I’m past the elbow issue. Now it’s just a matter of getting my stuff to a point that’s getting big-league hitters out.” Due to bone spurs in his throwing elbow, Musgrove hasn’t pitched since May 26, and his absence figures to stretch into at least mid-August as he gets fully ramped up. The Padres would certainly use some reinforcement in their rotation, as Michael King is day-to-day with a calf bruise, and Sanders doesn’t feel King is likely to make his next scheduled start tomorrow.
- Speaking of long-term injury absences, Max Muncy has been out since mid-May with a lingering oblique strain, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told media (including MLB.com) that Muncy is set to take part in a simulated game on August 8. According to Roberts, a visit with a chiropractor helped Muncy finally have a “breakthrough” in overcoming the ongoing discomfort in his oblique. Muncy’s return can’t come soon enough for the injury-riddled Dodgers, as the third baseman was posting his usual solid numbers — nine homers and a .223/.323/.475 — over his first 167 plate appearances of 2024.
- Charlie Blackmon is day-to-day with a bruise under his left eye after the Rockies veteran was hit in the face by a deflected throw in yesterday’s game. On a grounder to second base, a wayward throw from Xander Bogaerts saw the ball hit Blackmon’s arm and deflect up into his face, and an obviously hurt Blackmon was forced to leave the game. The good news is that Blackmon passed initial concussion tests, even if there was some facial swelling.
Astros Pitching Notes: Garcia, Verlander, Murfee
This weekend was supposed to mark the start of Luis Garcia‘s next minor league rehab assignment, but Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that Garcia is “feeling a little bit sore.” While Espada was quick to say that Garcia wasn’t being shut down, the team was going to take it easy with the righty-hander after he felt what Espada described as “some soreness in his elbow” following a game of catch on Thursday.
Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, and his first attempt at a rehab assignment lasted two outings — an inning with the Astros’ rookie ball team in late June, and then 1 1/3 innings for Double-A Corpus Christi in early July. He was then held back from any more game action due to some physical discomfort and trouble bouncing back between pitching appearances. The Astros were slowly ramping him back up, and after Garcia’s live batting practice session last Tuesday seemed to go without a hitch, plans were made for another rehab assignment.
Instead, some questions now have to be asked about when exactly Garcia will be able to properly get back onto the mound in the wake of this latest setback. Though Garcia will require a pretty lengthy rehab stint when he is able to pitch, the Astros have said Garcia could potentially return as a reliever. This would require less build-up than rehabbing to work as a starting pitcher, so Garcia could make it back a bit quicker and pitch out of Houston’s bullpen later in the season or into a potential postseason run. Garcia would therefore be able to contribute to the 2024 team in some fashion, yet with still a decent length of time remaining in the regular season, the Astros will certainly first see if Garcia can indeed get healthy and ready enough to return to his customary starting role.
Garcia established himself as a solid member of the starting five when he posted a 3.60 ERA over 312 2/3 innings in 2021-22, helping the Astros to two AL pennants in those years and the World Series title in 2022. Given the usual timeframe for Tommy John rehab, his projected return in the second half of this season gained extra import considering how the Astros have been ravaged by pitching injuries.
Justin Verlander has twice been sidelined — first with some shoulder inflammation that delayed his season debut until April 19, and then a bout of neck stiffness that has kept him off the mound since June 9. The good news is that Verlander is inching towards a return, as Espada said the star righty will face live batters during a batting practice session on Sunday. Verlander is tentatively then planned to begin a rehab assignment, with Espada specifying that Verlander will need multiple starts to build up his arm to return to starting duty.
Penn Murfee is another pitcher getting ready to face live batters, as the reliever will be throwing a live BP session at the Astros’ Spring Training complex this weekend. Murfee told Kawahara and company that the plan is for him to begin his own rehab assignment after throwing three live BP sessions.
Debuting in the majors in 2022, Murfee made a quick impression by posting a 2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 relief innings for the Mariners. He followed up that great rookie year with a 1.29 ERA in his first 14 innings of the 2023 campaign before undergoing a UCL-related surgery in June 2023, and Seattle then opted to place him on waivers at the start of the offseason. This led to Murfee going to the Mets and then the Braves on a pair of waiver claims, a new contract with the Braves after Atlanta non-tendered him, and then another waiver claim to the Astros in late March. If Murfee’s rehab goes smoothly and he is able to recapture his old form, he presents Houston with an intriguing bullpen addition for the final stretch.
Latest On Twins’ Trade Endeavors
The Twins are known to be working with little to no financial flexibility as the deadline approaches, as ownership’s big-picture revenue concerns continue to limit how much new money the front office can add. RosterResource projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $127.8MM, as offseason cuts have already significant reduced spending from the team’s $158.8MM payroll from 2023.
Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.
Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.” It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season. Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.
Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season. Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching. Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.
With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler. However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.
Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate. For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season. Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package. That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.
In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects. Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.
NL West Notes: Walker, Duran, Dodgers, Padres, Kikuchi
Christian Walker left tonight’s game with what the Diamondbacks described as left oblique tightness. It isn’t clear when the injury occurred, though Walker struck out swinging during a second-inning at-bat, and Kevin Newman then took over Walker’s spot at first base in the top of the fourth. More will be known about the severity of the injury once Walker undergoes tests, but any sort of oblique issue might hint at a trip to the injured list for the star first baseman.
Losing Walker for any stretch of time would deal a heavy blow to Arizona’s playoff hopes, given his all-around importance to the lineup. Walker is hitting .254/.338/.476 with 23 home runs over 461 plate appearances, and delivering his usual excellent glovework at first base. Beyond what an IL stay might do to the Diamondbacks’ chances in the pennant race, an extended absence also wouldn’t help Walker’s platform for a big free agent contract, as he is scheduled to hit the open market at season’s end. This sudden uncertainty over Walker’s status is an unwelcome wrinkle for the D’Backs in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline, as the team was planning to focus on pitching rather than any significant position-player adds.
More from around the NL West…
- The Dodgers inquired about Jhoan Duran‘s availability but couldn’t find a match with the Twins, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports (links to X). Unsurprisingly, Minnesota wanted a ton in exchange for a closer who is controlled through the 2027 season, and Hayes writes that the Twins are specifically looking for players who can help them win immediately. Los Angeles, by contrast, was only interested in moving prospects rather than MLB-ready talent. As it happened, the Dodgers did move one young player with big league experience as part of a larger trade to obtain relief pitching today, as Miguel Vargas and two prospects were sent to the White Sox as part of the three-team deal with the Sox and Cardinals that brought Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to Los Angeles.
- Before the Blue Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros earlier tonight, the Dodgers and Padres were among the teams showing interest in the left-hander, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link). Both NL West teams are known to be looking for starting pitching help, and it’s probably safe to assume that basically any club with rotation needs at least called the Jays about a clear trade candidate like Kikuchi.
Angels Notes: Rengifo, Ward, Pillar, Garcia, Trout
Reports earlier this month indicated that the Angels were planning to move only their impending free agents at the deadline, and were looking to retain players controlled through the 2025 season or beyond. The Halos have stuck to this plan to date by moving only Carlos Estevez to the Phillies, but it seems like the club is preparing to deal some longer-term assets, as rival executives tell MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that both Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward are expected to be dealt. “The Angels are listening to offers on” the duo, Feinsand writes.
The Red Sox and Dodgers are both reportedly in on Rengifo, the Pirates have had talks about Ward, and the Royals have previously been linked to both players in trade speculation. With some interest percolating around the league, it stood to reason that the Angels might back down from whatever rentals-only stance they might’ve held earlier in the summer, if such a stance was even anything more than a negotiating tactic.
It is hard at this point to see the Angels returning to contention as early as next season, and therefore there seems to be little reason why the team wouldn’t be open to moving two of their better trade assets. Rengifo is under arbitration control through the 2025 season and Ward won’t be a free agent until after the 2026 season, so this extra control would only add to their trade value, rather than perhaps act as a reason why Los Angeles should try to keep them with so many other glaring needs on the roster.
In terms of the Halos’ rental players, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (X link) that Kevin Pillar is getting “lots of interest” from rival teams. Playing in a part-time capacity since signing with the Halos in April, Pillar is hitting .287/.343/.481 over 199 plate appearances — this works out to a 130 wRC+, miles above the 86 wRC+ Pillar posted in his 11 previous Major League seasons.
It counts as going out on a high note for a player who is planning to retire at season’s end, and joining a contender would be a nice way to perhaps add a championship ring to Pillar’s resume. Even if some regression is probably inevitable given how Pillar is hitting so far above his career norms, the veteran can still provide outfield depth along with whatever he can do at the plate.
The Orioles are known to be looking for right-handed hitting outfielders, and Heyman writes in a separate X post that Pillar is one of the names on Baltimore’s list of possible targets. The Orioles added Cristian Pache as part of the Austin Hays trade with the Phillies, but the 2024 version of Pillar would bring a lot more pop than a defensive specialist like Pache.
The Estevez trade got the ball rolling on the Angels’ moves and also created a hole at the back of the bullpen. Manager Ron Washington told The Athletic’s Sam Blum (X link) and other reporters that Luis Garcia will close games unless Garcia is himself traded, and Ben Joyce would then be next in line for save situations. Garcia is another pending free agent and there is plenty of interest in his services, so since he’ll likely be in another uniform within a day’s time, thus opening the door for Joyce. A classic flame-throwing reliever, Joyce has garnered “closer of the future” buzz ever since he made his MLB debut last season, and he has a 2.11 ERA over 21 1/3 innings this year, albeit with a lot of subpar advanced metrics.
In non-trade news about the Angels’ biggest star, Washington told the Associated Press and other reporters that Mike Trout hadn’t yet restarted his running program after a setback with his surgically-repaired knee halted Trout’s minor league rehab assignment. Trout played two Triple-A innings last Tuesday before leaving the game, and an MRI taken on Friday was clean, with Trout telling MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the knee issue was related to some breaking scar tissue.
“It’s a huge relief for me. I just have to make sure it feels good and I’ll be back out there. Scar tissue breaking up is a weird feeling and I’d never experienced that,” Trout said.
Trout was hitting .220/.325/.541 with 10 homers over 126 PA when his knee problems arose at the end of April, and the three-time MVP hasn’t played since, apart from his brief Triple-A appearance last Tuesday. While neither Trout or Washington held much concern over this latest setback, there won’t be much comfort until Trout is back onto the field, given how multiple injuries have plagued the outfielder over the last few years.
Cardinals Notes: Edman, Brebbia, Matz, Kloffenstein
While the Cardinals are looking to buy at the deadline as they chase an NL wild card slot, the team could also pursue some strategic selling, as the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that the Dodgers have interest in Tommy Edman‘s services. The versatile Edman could provide depth or even a starting role at multiple positions for an injury-riddled Dodgers team, and it be can argued that St. Louis already has enough position-player depth to make Edman expendable.
Of course, the chief obstacle to a deal is Edman’s own health status, as he has still yet to play in a big league game this season. Edman underwent wrist surgery last fall and the rehab process has taken considerably longer than expected — his recovery has been delayed by a couple of shutdowns due to recurring wrist soreness, as well as a sprained ankle. He has played in seven games during his rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield, but only as a DH, rather than any action in the field.
The Cards would certainly be selling low on a player who generated 5.4 fWAR as recently as 2022, between Edman’s strong glovework all over the diamond and an above-average (106 wRC+) performance at the plate. However, 2022 represented the high-water mark of Edman’s offensive production over a full season, as he had an 89 wRC+ in 2021 and a 92 wRC+ in 528 PA last season.
The two-year, $16.5MM extension Edman signed last January also puts a significant price tag on his services, with about $2.4MM still owed to him this season and then $9.5MM owed in 2025. The Cardinals would almost certainly have to eat a big chunk of that money to accommodate a trade, unless they perhaps swapped Edman to the Dodgers or another team for another unfavorable contract.
Such a creative move might in some way address the Cardinals’ other deadline needs, which Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat outlines as a right-handed hitting outfielder, starting pitching, and some bullpen depth. For this latter goal, Jones reports that the Cards have interest in White Sox reliever John Brebbia.
It would be a reunion between the Cardinals and the veteran reliever, as Brebbia broke into the big leagues with St. Louis in 2017 and quickly established himself as a workhorse. Brebbia posted a 3.14 ERA over 175 relief innings over the 2017-19 season, but a Tommy John surgery kept him sidelined for the entire 2020 season, and the Cards non-tendered him following that lost year. He re-established himself pitching for the Giants from 2021-23, and signed a one-year free agent deal with the White Sox this past winter that pays him $4MM in salary, with a $1.5MM buyout of a $6MM mutual option for 2025.
Brebbia’s work with the Sox has been a lot better than his 5.22 ERA might indicate, as a .352 BABIP has inflated the righty’s bottom-line numbers. In terms of secondary metrics, Brebbia has a strong 29.5% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate, as well as above-average hard-contact numbers. With the White Sox in clear sell mode, Brebbia is a likely candidate to be on the move before the deadline, and St. Louis could among several terms intrigued by Brebbia’s Statcast line rather than his misleading ERA.
The Cardinals figure to land pitching even some internal arms are on the mend, as Steven Matz is tentatively slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week (as per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Matz’s injury-plagued tenure with the Cards has now seen him miss almost three months due to back problems, with the southpaw posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings in April before being sidelined. Since Matz’s rehab work has already been shut down twice by recurring back pain, this next rehab assignment doesn’t represent a clear sign that the veteran is fully on the road to recovery, but he did log two simulated innings in a throwing session on Saturday.
In more concerning injury news, Adam Kloffenstein has discomfort in his right shoulder, manager Oliver Marmol told Jones and other reporters. Kloffenstein is currently on the minor league injured list as testing is being done to determine the nature and extent of the problem. Acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade with the Blue Jays last summer, Kloffenstein has a 4.74 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and 17 Triple-A starts this season, and he made his Major League debut in cup-of-coffee form with one inning in the Cards’ 6-5 win over the Giants on June 20.
Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates
“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control. It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.
With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth. A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.
Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.
Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes. Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.
This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position. That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday. Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.
In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season. (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.) According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.
Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season. Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023. Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.
Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander. Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.
Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings. If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper. Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.
Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year. Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact. Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.
Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena
The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”
The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield. An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months. Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.
It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign. Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.
“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field. Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field. As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.
Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade. “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”
Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link). Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.
As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall. This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season. This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM. RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.
The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market. The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance. Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.
In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday. Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.
Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.