White Sox Outright Danny Mendick
July 19: Mendick cleared waivers and is headed to Triple-A Charlotte, with Fegan among those to relay the news on X.
July 17: The White Sox announced that they have signed infielder Nick Senzel, a move that was reported last night. To make room for Senzel, they designated infielder Danny Mendick for assignment. They also optioned infielder Lenyn Sosa, leaving a roster spot open. James Fegan of Sox Machine suggests on X that Yoán Moncada could take that spot, though that’s not confirmed as of now.
Mendick, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Sox and was added to the club’s roster in late April. He has appeared in 47 games for the Sox, stepping to the plate 141 times. Unfortunately, he has hit just .197/.243/.318 this year. He has struck out in 24.8% of his plate appearances while walking at a 4.3% clip, with both of those being subpar.
This is his sixth straight major league season, with most of his offensive output being fairly uninspiring. He had a nice flash of brilliance in 2022, slashing .289/.343/.443, but that season was cut short when he suffered a torn ACL after 31 games. Overall, he has a .232/.286/.346 batting line and 76 wRC+ in 656 career plate appearances.
He has now been nudged of Chicago’s roster and they will have some time to try to work out the next steps, whether that’s a trade or trying to pass Mendick. DFA limbo can last as long as a week but the waiver process takes 48 hours, so any possibility of a trade will have to be explored in the next five days. Though with Mendick’s performance this year, interest is likely to be muted anyhow.
He can at least provide clubs with defensive versatility. He has played second and third base this year and also has some work at shortstop and in the outfield on his track record. He hasn’t been much of a base-stealer in his career but has swiped six bags without being caught this season. Mendick has an option and can therefore be kept in the minors if any club gives him a 40-man roster spot. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, he will have the right to elect free agency, both because he has a previous career outright and because he has more than three years of service time.
Rockies Agree To Terms With No. 3 Overall Pick Charlie Condon
The Rockies and outfielder Charlie Condon, the third overall pick from the 2024 draft, have agreed to a $9.25MM signing bonus. That matches Chase Burns, who signed with the Reds earlier this week, for the largest signing bonus in MLB history and slightly above the $9.07MM slot value for the #3 pick. Both Condon and Burns are represented by Vayner Sports. Jeff Passan relayed the details of the agreement on X.
Condon, now 21, is coming off an absurd two-year run with Georgia. He hit 25 home runs in 56 games for them last year and slashed .386/.484/.800. Here in 2024, he took things to another level with 37 homers in 60 games and a batting line of .433/.556/1.009.
In addition to the power, Condon’s bat-to-ball abilities are also considered strong. He struck out 86 times over his two seasons with Georgia, a rate of 15.4%. He also drew 90 walks in that time, a rate of 16.1%.
He’s not considered a standout defender but has some versatility, having played the infield corners and all three outfield slots this year. His ultimate defensive home seems up in the air, with some suggesting he’s likelier to end up as a corner outfielder while other suggests third base is most likely.
But the bat is the real standout tool and that’s why he was considered one of the top players available in this year’s draft. Baseball America, ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic all had him in the top spot. MLB Pipeline had him second behind Travis Bazzana, who was selected first overall by the Guardians. The report from FanGraphs is slightly more bearish, putting Condon fourth and expressing some worry that his uppercut swing will leave him vulnerable at the top of the zone, especially once he climbs to higher levels and eventually the majors.
While Condon’s power potential is exciting in a vacuum, the idea of him playing his home games at Coors Field is even more enticing. The Rockies have Ryan McMahon at third base, with his contract running through 2027. In the outfielder, Brenton Doyle seems to be emerging as a core piece in center, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored.
For Condon’s other possible positions, things get murky. Kris Bryant is under contract through 2028 but has hardly been able to stay on the field since coming to Colorado, even though the Rockies moved him to first base to try to lighten the wear and tear on him. Charlie Blackmon is 38 years old and on a one-year deal. Nolan Jones seemed to breakout last year but has stalled here in 2024.
The picture will undoubtedly change in time but the Rockies will surely be hoping for Condon to be a part of their roster in the future. His defense might require a bit of experimentation but perhaps his bat can vault him towards the majors quickly.
Nationals Reinstate Jose A. Ferrer
The Nationals announced that left-hander Jose A. Ferrer has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Righty Amos Willingham was optioned to Triple-A to open an active roster spot. The Nats had two 40-man vacancies due to releasing infielder Nick Senzel and trading right Hunter Harvey to the Royals, so their count now climbs from 38 to 39.
Ferrer, 24, suffered a left lat strain during Spring Training and has spent the entire campaign on the IL until now. That has prevented him from building off last year’s major league debut. He tossed 34 innings for the Nats in 2023 with a 5.04 earned run average. His 17.6% strikeout rate was subpar but his 9.2% walk rate was around average. He got ground balls at a strong clip of 57.8% but also allowed four home runs, a rate of 18.2% per fly ball.
Advanced metrics thought he was a bit unlucky to have his ERA that high. Perhaps due to a relatively high .333 batting average on balls in play, his FIP was 4.55. SIERA, which normalizes home run rates, was even more bullish at 4.16.
Ferrer now slots into the club’s bullpen, giving them a second lefty alongside Robert Garcia. There should be plenty of opportunities for Washington relievers in the final few months of the season. They already traded Harvey and could potentially also flip Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Derek Law or Jacob Barnes by season’s end, as no one in that group is controllable beyond 2025.
That could give Ferrer a bit of runway to make up for lost time. He still has a couple of options and came into 2024 with less than a year of service, so he could be a long-term piece for the Nats if he performs well enough to continue holding a roster spot. He’s always been a ground ball guy in the minors but also with more punchouts than he showed in the majors last year. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has a 27% strikeout rate on the farm.
Reds Designate Edwin Ríos For Assignment
The Reds announced today that outfielder Stuart Fairchild has been activated from the 10-day injured list with infielder Edwin Ríos designated for assignment as the corresponding move. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.
Ríos, 30, was just added to the roster a couple of weeks ago. He received 10 plate appearances in five games but recorded just one walk and one hit, a single, while striking out four times. That’s a fairly meaningless sample size but he may have been squeezed out by forces beyond his control. In addition to Fairchild’s return from the IL, Jake Fraley has returned from a stint on the family medical emergency list and the club acquired Austin Slater from the Giants. On top of that, Rece Hinds has slashed an absurd .423/.464/1.192 in his first seven major league games.
The Reds gave Ríos a couple of starts at first base and a few pinch-hitting opportunities but it would have been hard to get into the lineup with those developments in the outfield. Spencer Steer had been playing some left field but might now be pushed to spending more time at first base, splitting that spot and designated hitter with Jeimer Candelario as the outfield is manned by Fraley, Fairchild, Slater, Hinds and Will Benson. Candelario can also play third but the club has Noelvi Marté getting regular run there.
Since Ríos is out of options, the Reds had to cut him from the 40-man roster entirely to squeeze him off the active roster. Prior to getting called up, Ríos got into 50 Triple-A games with some success. He hit 11 home runs and was drawing walks at an 11.8% clip, though he was also striking out 11.8% of the time. His .243/.340/.486 batting line translated to a 108 wRC+.
The Reds will have a week to trade Ríos or pass him through waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, that leaves five days for them to explore any trade interest. Players with more than three years of service time or a previous career outright have the right to reject outright assignments in favor of free agency, with Ríos qualifying on both counts.
Prior to this stint with the Reds, he had played with the Dodgers and Cubs. This is his sixth straight season getting MLB time but he’s never been able to stick around for more than 32 games in any individual year. Overall, he has 335 plate appearances over 135 games with 21 home runs and a batting line of .202/.290/.455 for a wRC+ of 100.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on draft pick trading, whether the Royals could deal from their MLB team for help in other areas, the asking price on Garrett Crochet, Ivan Herrera's value, the Yankees' closing situation, the A's middle infield, where the first Juan Soto trade ranks among the biggest in MLB history, and much more.
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Royals Re-Sign Austin Cox To Minor League Deal
The Royals have re-signed left-hander Austin Cox to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He had opted out of a minors deal with the club last week but the two sides have circled back on a fresh pact and he’ll return to Triple-A Omaha.
Cox, 27, tossed 35 2/3 minor league innings with a 3.28 earned run average prior to opting out. His 23.7% strikeout rate was quite strong but he also walked 13.2% of batters faced. Were it not for an 87.2% strand rate, some more runs would have crossed the plate, which is partly why his his 5.43 FIP was more than two runs higher than his ERA.
He went out to the open market to see what opportunities were available to him but wound up back where he started. Such a sequence of events isn’t unusual, as teams and players in these situations often re-negotiate new terms, sometimes adding another opt-out into the new deal.
Regardless of the details of the new pact, Cox will again provide the Royals with some left-handed depth in a non-roster capacity. He tossed 35 2/3 innings for them at the major league level last year with a 4.54 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate was close to average but he gave out free passes at an 11.4% clip.
His season came to an unfortunate end in September when he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee while attempting to cover first base on a ground ball. He underwent surgery and was non-tendered at season’s end before reuniting with the club on his aforementioned minor league deal. The club currently has four lefties in its big league bullpen in Ángel Zerpa, Kris Bubic, Will Smith and Sam Long, with Walter Pennington also on the 40-man roster.
Cubs Select Jesus Tinoco
The Cubs have selected the contract of recently acquired righty Jesus Tinoco, tweets Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. He’ll join their big league bullpen to start the season’s second half. Lefty Jordan Wicks, already out more than a month with an oblique strain, is being transferred from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injures list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Wicks will now be out until mid-August at the earliest.
Chicago acquired Tinoco from the Royals in exchange for cash earlier in the week. Presumably, given how quickly he’s been added to the big league roster, the right-hander had some form of opt-out or upward mobility clause in his contract that led to the swap.
Tinoco, 29, pitched 10 innings for the Rangers earlier this season and allowed nine runs before being designated for assignment. He rejected an outright assignment to Triple-A in favor of free agency, signed with the Royals a few days later, and now will find himself back in the majors with the Cubs less than a month after he became a free agent.
This year’s run with the Rangers obviously didn’t go how he’d hoped, but Tinoco tossed 20 2/3 innings of 2.18 ERA ball for Texas back in 2022 and has pitched to a 4.58 earned run average in 76 2/3 innings across parts of five seasons. He averages better than 96 mph on his fastball but doesn’t miss bats at a particularly high level; he’s fanned 18.1% of his big league opponents against an untenable 13.9% walk rate. He’s had a solid showing in 28 Triple-A innings this season, however, posting a 3.86 ERA with a huge 31.9% strikeout rate against a more manageable (but still higher than average) 9.5% walk rate.
The Cubs’ bullpen has been problematic for much of the 2024 season. They’re a middle-of-the-pack group in terms of ERA but have regularly faltered in high-leverage situations, due in no small part to possessing the third-highest walk rate in the majors, at 10.8%. Tinoco will give them a fresh arm, though his own history of command troubles doesn’t inspire much confidence that he’ll help the group cut down on its walk issues. If the Cubs plan to add to the roster between now and the July 30 trade deadline — they’re currently 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot in the NL — bullpen help will likely be a focus.
Royals Sign Dinelson Lamet To Minor League Deal
The Royals announced Friday morning that they’ve signed right-hander Dinelson Lamet to a minor league contract. He opted out of a minors pact with the Dodgers early last month and has been a free agent for the past six weeks. Presumably, given that layoff, he’ll ramp up at a low-level affiliate before heading to Triple-A Omaha. Lamet is repped by the MVP Sports Group.
The 31-year-old Lamet pitched 4 1/3 innings with L.A. back in April before he was designated for assignment. He originally accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Oklahoma City but opted out a couple months later. Lamet allowed one run in his brief Dodgers stint. He spent the rest of his time with the organization in the Triple-A rotation, working to a 4.82 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate and 12.9% walk rate in 37 1/3 frames.
At one point in his career, Lamet looked like one of the more promising young arms in the National League. He debuted as a 24-year-old with the Padres in 2017 and held his own with a 4.57 ERA and hefty 28.7% strikeout rate in 21 starts. He missed the next year due to Tommy John surgery but returned in 2019 with a 4.07 ERA and massive 33.5% strikeout rate. The shortened 2020 season brought a full-fledged breakout, as the righty finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting on the heels of a pristine 2.09 ERA, a career-high 34.8% strikeout rate and a strong 7.5% walk rate.
Forearm and back injuries have derailed his trajectory since. His 2021 season was marred by a pair of forearm strains, limiting him to just 47 innings. The Padres moved him to the bullpen late in the season in hopes that a move to short relief would help keep him on the field, but while he’s been relatively healthy since, his fastball has deteriorated even while moving to shorter stints. Concurrently, he’s seen his command struggles not only resurface but climb to new heights.
Dating back to Opening Day 2022, Lamet has pitched 64 1/3 big league innings between four teams but posted an 8.25 ERA. He’s still fanned more than a quarter of his opponents but has also issued walks at a 14.1% clip and plunked another five opponents (1.6%). Lamet’s heater averaged a blistering 97 mph during his breakout ’20 campaign but sat at a more pedestrian 93.7 mph during his brief run with the Dodgers earlier this season.
Royals GM J.J. Picollo talked last month about wanting to add to his club’s bullpen, acknowledging the lack of swing-and-miss in a Royals relief corps that now ranks 29th in the majors with a 19% strikeout rate. That leads only the Rockies’ 18.4% rate. Lamet will need to ramp up and perform well in Omaha with the Storm Chasers before he’s even considered a viable option, but for all his struggles in recent seasons, he’s still quite capable of missing bats thanks to a slider that regularly racks up plus whiff rates. He’s a long-shot play at this point in his career, but there’s no risk in bringing him aboard on a minor league pact to see if he can get back on track in the minors.
The Opener: Weekend Matchups, Prospect Debuts, HOF Induction
As the second half of the regular season gets underway, here are three things to watch around baseball this weekend:
1. Weekend matchups:
The two clubs battling at the top of the AL West will face off this weekend, as the Mariners host the Astros for a three-game set. It will be the final matchup between the division rivals until mid-September. Probable starting pitchers for the Mariners are Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo (per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times), while the Astros are lined up to counter with Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and Ronel Blanco (per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). The series begins tonight at 9:10 PM CT.
Since the last time these two teams faced off, the Astros have gained 4.5 games on the Mariners, putting them just one game back in the AL West. With a series win this weekend, Houston would reclaim first place in the division for the first time since 2023. Meanwhile, if Seattle wins at least two of the three games, the Mariners will clinch the season series against the Astros. Winning the season series against a divisional rival became especially important in 2022 when the new CBA replaced tiebreaker games with mathematical tiebreaking procedures. Just last year, the Astros beat the Rangers for the AL West crown because Houston took the season series 9-4.
Over in the National League, the top two Wild Card teams are getting ready for a weekend matchup. If the regular season ended at the All-Star break, the Braves and Cardinals would be gearing up to play in a three-game Wild Card Series at Truist Park. Now, of course, there is still plenty of regular season left to play, which means their face-off this weekend in Atlanta is only a postseason preview.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Charlie Morton, and Max Fried are lined up to pitch for the Braves (per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution), while Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Miles Mikolas are in line to start for the Cardinals (per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The Braves will hope to increase their lead in the Wild Card race with a series victory, while the Cardinals could find themselves just 0.5 games back of the top Wild Card spot if they manage to sweep the three-game set. The first game begins tonight at 6:20 PM CT.
2. Top prospect promotions:
As Martín Gallegos of MLB.com reported yesterday, the Athletics are planning to promote 22-year-old prospect Jacob Wilson, likely as soon as this evening’s contest against the Angels. The A’s selected him with the sixth overall pick in last year’s draft. Presumably, he will take over from Max Schuemann as the everyday shortstop in Oakland. The A’s have open spots on the 40-man and the active roster, so they do not need to make a corresponding move before announcing Wilson’s promotion.
Although a knee injury limited his playing time earlier this season, Wilson has been nothing but electric throughout his brief career in the minor leagues. Quickly rising through Oakland’s system, he has hit .401/.445/.613 (180 wRC+) across four levels. In 19 games at Triple-A this year, he has a .398 batting average with eight doubles, four home runs, and only three strikeouts. Baseball America recently ranked Wilson as the No. 19 overall prospect in the game, while MLB Pipeline has him at No. 50. The Athletic’s Keith Law did not include Wilson on his preseason top 100 prospects list but ranked the young infielder No. 2 in the Athletics system.
Meanwhile, down in Southern California, the Dodgers are reportedly planning to promote top pitching prospect River Ryan, according to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. Manager Dave Roberts has not yet announced how he plans to line up his rotation to begin the second half, so it’s possible Ryan could make his first big league start this weekend against the Red Sox.
Baseball America ranks Ryan as the No. 10 prospect (No. 3 pitching prospect) in the organization, while MLB Pipeline has him at No. 4 (No. 2 among pitchers). The Athletic’s Keith Law was particularly high on Ryan entering the season, considering him the best pitching prospect in the organization and one of the top four pitching prospects in the sport. Shoulder issues delayed the beginning of Ryan’s season, but the 26-year-old has looked sharp in five Triple-A outings, pitching to a 2.76 ERA and 3.67 FIP with a 28.8% strikeout rate and a 60.0% groundball rate. L.A. has an open spot for Ryan on the 40-man and active rosters. Although he has limited experience at Triple-A and likely needs a bit more seasoning in the minors, the Dodgers will hope he can provide their beleaguered rotation with some temporary relief.
3. Hall of Fame induction ceremony:
Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton and Jim Leyland will be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame this weekend, with the ceremony set for Sunday at 12:30 PM CT. The festivities will be broadcast on MLB Network. Beltre, Mauer, and Helton were elected by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America for their playing careers, while Leyland was elected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee for his work as a manager. An additional 50 Hall of Famers will be present to celebrate their induction. More details about the event can be found on the Hall of Fame website.
Looking At The Blue Jays And The Competitive Balance Tax
This isn’t the Blue Jays’ year. Though they played at roughly a 90-win pace over the 2020-23 seasons, things have fallen apart here in 2024. They are 44-52, putting them 9.5 games out of a playoff spot and with several teams blocking their path. Unless they crack off an 11-game winning streak between now and the deadline, they’ll be looking to do some selling in the coming weeks.
Crazier things have happened but the odds are against them. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 2% chance of a miracle postseason berth while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are only slightly more optimistic at 3.9%.
Recent reporting has suggested the Jays are willing to deal rental players but may stop there. Some have floated players like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as potential trade candidates, with each controllable through the 2025 season, but general manager Ross Atkins seemed to shoot down that possibility. Last month, he said that trading those guys “just doesn’t make any sense for us.”
In general, it seems the club is hoping to contend again in 2025. That leaves them with six rental players they could trade between now and the July 30 deadline, as each of Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for the open market at season’s end. Naturally, each player will have different trade value based on his skill level but also his contract.
One question that the front office will need to answer is whether they will prioritize shedding salaries and getting under the competitive balance tax or focus more on prospect returns, eating some money in order to tip the scales that way. The Mets demonstrated the latter path last year, as they swallowed significant portions of the money owed to both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in order to bring back larger prospect hauls.
Both Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts are pretty close in estimating Toronto’s current CBT number. RR has them just over $247MM with Cot’s a tad higher at $250MM. Those are just estimates but they’re likely pretty close, so the Jays would have to subtract $10-15MM in order to limbo under the lowest tax threshold of $237MM.
They won’t be able to shed any player’s full salary from their CBT number as the season is already more than half over, but they could shed portions. For example, if a player has a CBT hit of $20MM and is traded at the midway point of the season, $10MM of that would stay on the trading club’s books and the other half would transfer to the acquiring club. That’s assuming no cash considerations were involved in the deal.
It’s also worth pointing out that a player’s CBT hit is based on the average annual value of his contract, not the salary. The baseball season is 187 days long and there are 73 left to go, roughly 39%. By the deadline, that will be down to 61 days or 32.6%. Let’s take a rough outline of where those six rental players stand:
- Turner: $13MM CBT hit for the year, $5.07MM remaining today, $4.24MM at deadline
- Kikuchi: $12MM, $4.68MM, $3.91MM
- Kiermaier: $10.5MM, $4.1MM, $3.42MM
- Garcia: $6MM, $2.34MM, $1.96MM
- Jansen, $5.2MM, $2.03MM, $1.7MM
- Richards: $2.15MM, $839K, $700K
As of today, those six players combine for a CBT hit of roughly $19.06MM, with that number set to drop to $15.93MM by the deadline. Though it would be tight, it’s certainly possible they could duck under the tax this year.
Doing so would come with certain benefits, though the tax savings would be minimal. The Jays paid the tax for the first time last year and are currently on pace to be a second-time payor. That only comes with a 30% tax rate, meaning they’re currently slated to pay in the range of $3-4MM in taxes.
That’s a drop in the bucket for a major league team but there would be other arguments for ducking under. If the Jays did pay the tax this year and again in 2025, they would be a third-time payor next year, which would bump their tax rate to 50%. Whereas ducking under the line this year would reset their status and allow them to go into 2025 as a “first-time” payor and have a base rate of just 20%. That feels significant but still leads to fairly modest tax savings. For example, going $30MM over next year’s base threshold would lead to either a $6MM or $15MM tax bill, depending on whether they are paying a 20% or 50% rate.
Perhaps more importantly, if they signed a player in the offseason that had rejected a qualifying offer, they would face a lesser penalty by avoiding the tax. A tax-paying club surrenders $1MM in international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next draft when signing a QO player. Avoiding the tax changes that to just $500K in bonus money and just the second-highest pick.
They would also increase what they receive if a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. Tax payors receive a pick after the fourth round if a QO player signs elsewhere, whereas it’s the start of the third if they avoid the tax. The Jays have a couple of potential QO candidates in Jansen and Kikuchi but the QO consideration would be moot if they get traded.
But as mentioned, the Jays could just forget about the tax and focus on getting the best prospects they can. The Cubs are reportedly interested in Jansen but they would probably rather give up a better return while having the Jays keep their money on their books. The Cubs seemingly want to avoid the tax themselves and Roster Resource currently has them just under $234MM. They have a well-regarded farm system and might lean towards subtracting from that, as opposed to taking on money at the deadline. It may be similar with other teams, such as the Padres. Roster Resource has them at $225MM and they seem to want to stay under the tax as well. They need pitching and may be interested in someone like Kikuchi, but they may not want to take on his money/CBT hit.
Other teams will be in the opposite position. A team such as the Tigers, as an example, might be looking for more offense. If they were to inquire about Turner, they would probably prefer to take on the money and not give up prospect talent. They are nowhere near the tax line and their real payroll is well below their past spending levels. Since they are seven games out of the playoffs, they might be willing to take on a bit of cash in order to bolster their club for a long-shot postseason push, as opposed to surrendering young players and hurting themselves in future seasons.
What the Jays are able to do will ultimately depend on what kind of offers are coming their way, as they don’t operate in a vacuum. They already know that no club is willing to take on all of Kiermaier’s contract, as they made him freely available on waivers recently and didn’t get any takers. Perhaps someone would be interested in him as a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder if the Jays ate some of his deal, but getting all of the remainder of his contract off the books doesn’t appear to be an option.
Depending on the circumstances of their trading partners, they may have to strike a balance, with some deals focused on cost savings and others on maximizing the return in terms of talent. If that leaves them still a hair over the tax line, they could consider moving non-rental players, with Chad Green arguably the best option there. He is under contract through 2025 but has a $10.5MM CBT hit, same as Kiermaier, giving the Jays a chance to scrub another few million from their CBT number. Doing so would hurt their 2025 bullpen but they might feel they could easily replace Green’s production via an offseason signing. With bullpen help generally in demand at the deadline, Green should garner interest.
Guys like George Springer, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman all have CBT hits of $21MM or more. The Jays could try to find takers for those but Springer is 34 years old and having a rough season, which would tamp down interest. Dealing either Bassitt or Gausman would hurt next year’s rotation, which is perhaps the club’s best argument for trying to compete again in 2025, as they could go into the offseason with a front four of Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos and Yariel Rodríguez on paper.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be another option as he is under contract through 2025 and has a $7.5MM CBT hit. He is having the best season of his career but has been on the injured list since the start of this month with a left knee sprain. He can still be traded while on the IL but his health status will impact his trade value.
Ultimately, there are many moving parts here, part of the reason why the Jays will be an interesting club to watch in the weeks to come. Most of the sellers at this year’s deadline will be focused on the long term, as clubs like the White Sox and Marlins are in really rough shape in the present. That will make their deadline priorities rather straightforward, as they will be simply looking to acquire as much future talent as possible.
But the Blue Jays will likely be balancing several different concerns. They will be looking to give up some talent, but not in a way that significantly harms their chances of competing again next year. They could focus on acquiring as much talent as they can right now or they could limbo under the tax line, giving them more freedom to acquire talent in the offseason. One way or another, Atkins and his crew will be looking to turn a lost season into something that can help them down the line, though there are many different ways they could try to accomplish that.