Red Sox Designate Mauricio Llovera For Assignment
The Red Sox officially announced their deal with right-hander Lucas Giolito, with fellow righty Mauricio Llovera designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Llovera, 28 in April, was just acquired from the Giants in a cash deal in July. He went on to toss 29 2/3 innings over 25 appearances after coming to Boston, with a 5.46 earned run average in that time. He had spent time with the Phillies and Giants and now has 59 innings of MLB experience with a 5.80 ERA.
He has fared much better in the minors, with a 2.82 ERA at the Triple-A level in 92 2/3 innings over the past three years. He has struck out 25.9% of Triple-A hitters faced while giving out walks to 8.8% of them. It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that a decent chunk of that came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League while he was in the Giants’ system.
The Sox will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers, though he would be eligible to elect free agency in the latter scenario since he has a previous career outright. His strong Triple-A results could lead to another club putting in a claim but Llovera is out of options, which will limit his appeal as a depth arm.
Red Sox Sign Lucas Giolito
The Red Sox are taking on a flier on Lucas Giolito, announcing to today that they have signed the right-hander. It is reportedly a two-year, $38.5MM guarantee that allows the CAA client to opt out after the first season. Giolito will collect an $18MM salary next year and would receive a $1MM buyout if he exercises the opt-out. His ’25 salary is worth $19MM.
If he doesn’t opt out next winter, a conditional option kicks in covering the 2026 campaign. Were Giolito to throw fewer than 140 innings in 2025, the Sox would have a $14MM club option. If he reaches or tops 140 frames, he’d convert that provision to a $19MM mutual option. Regardless of the option value, there’d be a $1.5MM buyout. The deal also contains $1MM in performance bonuses in each of the next two seasons.
It’s a modified pillow contract for the 29-year-old. That reflects a dismal final few months of last season. Giolito looked on track for a nine-figure deal early in the summer. Over his first 21 starts with the White Sox, he carried a 3.79 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of batters faced. Chicago’s fall out of contention made him one of the top starters available at the deadline.
A trade sending Giolito alongside reliever Reynaldo López to the Angels looked like a boost to his market value. Joining a fringe contender gave him an outside shot at a playoff berth. More meaningfully for his free agency, it took the qualifying offer off the table, as players who change teams midseason can’t be issued the QO.
That’s not how things played out. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in MLB from the deadline onwards. He made only six starts for the Halos before they placed him on waivers, dumping the remainder of his salary after the team fell from contention to help limbo underneath the luxury tax line. Giolito was hit hard for both Los Angeles and the Guardians, who snagged him off the waiver wire at the end of August.
Over his final 12 appearances, he was tagged for a 6.96 ERA through 63 1/3 innings. He was staggeringly prone to the longball, allowing 21 homers (nearly one in every three innings) over that stretch. His walk rate also spiked. He handed out free passes to nearly 11% of opponents after issuing walks at a manageable 8.3% clip in Chicago.
Short of a major injury, it’d be hard to draw up a more frustrating final two months before free agency. That said, there’s a lot in his career résumé that made him arguably the top reclamation target in the rotation class. Giolito turned in upper mid-rotation results between 2019-21, combining for a 3.47 ERA with an excellent 30.7% strikeout percentage despite the hitter-friendly nature of Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field.
He has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in each of the past two seasons, albeit for different reasons. His 4.90 mark in 2022 was attributable largely to a .340 average on balls in play, by far the highest rate of his career. That dropped to .274 last season, and his early-season results again painted the picture of a solid #3 starter. Then came the late-season homer barrage that left him with a 4.88 ERA at year’s end.
The longball has always been a bit of a problem for Giolito, but his second-half home run rate is unsustainably high. Boston is betting on positive regression in that department, hoping that’ll result in mid-rotation results. While Giolito’s whiffs are down from his 2019-21 peak, he still misses bats at an above-average level. Opposing hitters have swung through 12.2% of his offerings in each of the last two years, which tops the 10.8% league mark for starting pitchers. His fastball sits around 93 MPH and he misses a decent number of bats with both his changeup and slider.
Giolito’s performance has varied over the past few seasons. His durability has not. The 6’6″ hurler has taken the ball almost every fifth day for the last six years. He hasn’t had an injured list stint longer than two weeks at any point in his MLB career. He hasn’t had any arm-related absences as a big leaguer. Giolito has started 29 or more games in each of the past five full schedules and took the full slate of 12 rotation turns during the shortened season. Only Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole, José Berríos and Patrick Corbin have started more games over that stretch. He’s eighth in the majors in innings pitched since 2018.
A source of volume innings is a sensible addition to a talented but volatile Boston pitching staff. Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford are among the in-house options for the Opening Day rotation. Sale has battled various injuries over the past few seasons. Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock and Crawford have all worked out of the bullpen at times. Aside from Crawford, that group has generally found more success in long relief than out of the rotation. Bello’s rotation spot isn’t in jeopardy, but his production dipped at the end of his first full major league season.
That made adding a starter an offseason priority for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. The Sox were on the periphery of the Yoshinobu Yamamoto market before he signed with the Dodgers. They’d been tied to Jordan Montgomery as well, although recent reporting suggested they were pivoting towards the second tier. Giolito becomes Breslow’s first significant free agent acquisition as Boston’s front office leader. The Sox could still explore the rotation market — they’ve recently been tied to NPB left-hander Shota Imanaga and old friend James Paxton — but this signing may lead them to turn their main focus to another area of need like second base.
The contract falls in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $44MM from the start of the offseason, when we ranked him this winter’s #17 free agent. The two-year guarantee with an opt-out after the first season has become more commonplace in recent years for priority rebound candidates. It affords the player more security than would a straight one-year pact while allowing him to get back to the market after one season if he bounces back.
Giolito turns 30 in July, so he’d be well-positioned for a lofty multi-year pact next winter if he gets on track. Since he was ineligible for the qualifying offer, the signing doesn’t cost Boston any draft compensation. If he pitches well enough to opt out a year from now, the Red Sox would likely make him the QO, allowing them to recoup a draft choice if he only spends one year in Massachusetts.
The Red Sox’s 2024 payroll projection now sits around $187MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re just shy of $200MM from a luxury tax perspective, keeping them $37MM below next year’s lowest threshold. Boston opened last season with a player payroll in the $181MM range after topping $206MM the prior season. They did not exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2023.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Red Sox were signing Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM guarantee with an opt-out; Passan was also first with the salary structure and the 2026 option specifics. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the $1MM in annual incentives and specified that the buyout applied regardless of the option scenario.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Ross Atkins Discusses Current State Of Blue Jays’ Roster
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke to the media today as the club introduced recent signees Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Those comments were relayed by reporters including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportnet (X links), Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link) and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X links).
“We feel really good about the team that we have,” Atkins said, while acknowledging that further moves could still be forthcoming. “I don’t think we’ll add three players. I think, most likely, that it’s closer to one.” The forthcoming addition would “most likely be in the outfield or DH category, but we’re not limited to that.” When asked if their third baseman was already on the roster, he said that “We feel really good about the team that we have. Between [Santiago] Espinal, [Cavan] Biggio and Kiner-Falefa, we have opportunities to deploy different lineups and different players playing third base potentially.” Further moves could change the role for Kiner-Falefa but “There could be a pathway for him to get a lot of third base at-bats the way we’re currently constructed.”
All of this would seem to suggest that their likelihood of re-signing Matt Chapman is currently low, though some caveats apply. While Atkins suggested they are more focused on an outfield/DH addition, he did at least leave the door open by saying they are “not limited to that.” It’s also possible that this is a negotiating tactic, downplaying their interest in order to improve their leverage in contract talks.
If it does come to pass that Kiner-Falefa replaces Chapman in getting the bulk of the playing time at the hot corner, that would count as a notable downgrade for the club. Both are excellent defenders but IKF has a career batting line of just .261/.314/.346, which translates to a wRC+ of 81. Chapman, meanwhile, has hit .240/.329/.461 in his career for a wRC+ of 118. Kiner-Falefa could make up for that gap somewhat with his speed, having stolen 56 bases over the past three years, but Chapman is obviously the superior player overall. Kiner-Falefa has a career tally of 3.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, a figure that Chapman has topped in a single season on four occasions.
It seems the club is focused on run prevention, as both Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier are defensive specialists, while hoping for greater offense from their incumbent players. “We feel like last year was just a blip in terms of run-scoring,” Atkins said today, per Matheson. Lineup regulars like George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk all had relative down years at the plate in 2023 and it seems like the club is expecting that group bouncing back to make up for the loss of Chapman’s bat.
If this is an honest assessment of the club’s current makeup and not mere posturing, it’s a bold gambit for the club to take. The offense was a bit underwhelming in 2023 and the lineup has since lost Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield. The club seemed focused on upgrading the lineup all winter, having been connected to big bats like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger and others. While Ohtani and Soto are off the board, Bellinger is still available, as are some other known targets. The club has been connected to DH-type players like Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto and Justin Turner. It seems at least one addition is still forthcoming but the Jays could be placing a lot of faith in a return to form from the aforementioned quartet.
It’s also possible that some internal improvements could come from elsewhere. Davis Schneider had a red hot debut in 2023 but cooled later in the year. He still finished with a batting line of .276/.404/.603 in his first 141 major league plate appearances, translating to a wRC+ of 176. He surely won’t be able to maintain that, but even some regression could perhaps see him bolster the lineup over a full season.
The club also got encouraging minor league performances, to varying degrees, from players like Spencer Horwitz, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement, Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes. All of those players have either made their major league debut already or have reached Triple-A, making them plausible contributors to the 2024 club. A strong step forward from one or two guys in that group could quickly cut into IKF’s playing time. “I know the off-season isn’t done,” Kiner-Falefa said today, per Davidi. “I know are still going to be moves. I’m just ready to play everywhere.”
The club is clearly not done and it’s perhaps best to reserve judgement until later in the offseason, but it currently looks a bit odd. The Jays clearly set their sights high and it seemed as recently as a few weeks ago that they were committed to making a big splash to upgrade the lineup but now appear to have made a significant shift in how they are approaching their 2024 roster construction.
On another note, Atkins relayed that the Jays have added Matt Hague to their big league coaching staff as assistant hitting coach, per Nicholson-Smith. Hague played in 43 big league games between the Pirates and Blue Jays. He last appeared in the majors in 2015 but continued toiling away in the minors through 2018. For the past four years, he has been serving as a hitting coach in the minor leagues of the Jays’ system but will now get a chance to join a major league staff.
Brewers Acquire Bryan Hudson From Dodgers
12:20pm: The Dodgers have announced the deal, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, with the Brewers sending lefty Justin Chambers and a player to be named later in return. Chambers is just 18 years old, having been selected in the 20th round of the 2023 draft. He didn’t make an appearance in affiliated ball after that draft selection.
12:05pm: The Brewers are acquiring left-hander Bryan Hudson from the Dodgers, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. The lefty was designated for assignment two weeks ago. DFA limbo is normally capped at one week but that clock is paused for the week between Christmas and New Year’s. It’s unclear what the Dodgers are receiving in exchange. Milwaukee’s 40-man roster count is up to 39.
Hudson, 27 in May, made his major league debut last year with 8 2/3 innings for the Dodgers. He allowed seven earned runs in that time, leading to an unsightly 7.27 ERA, though that’s obviously a miniscule sample size. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, tossing 55 2/3 innings with 2.43 ERA. He struck out 35.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 10.8% clip and keeping 46.7% of balls in play on the ground.
Grounders have consistently been a part of his game, going all the way back to his Rookie ball days. Those strikeouts are a fairly new development, however, having shot up in the past two years. He also struck out 29.7% of batters faced in 2022, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A while in the Cubs organization.
The ability to both strike hitters out and keep the ball on the ground when they do make contact is enticing and appears to have caught the attention of the Brewers. Hudson still has a couple of option years remaining, so he can serve as a depth piece for the bullpen in Milwaukee. Their southpaw relief corps is currently headlined by Hoby Milner, with Ethan Small and Clayton Andrews also on the roster, though Hudson will now jump into that group as well.
Diamondbacks To Sign Kevin Newman To Minor League Deal
10:10am: It’s a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com.
8:59am: The Diamondbacks and infielder Kevin Newman are in agreement on a deal, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The specifics of the deal are not yet known.
Newman, 30, was a first-round pick by the Pirates in the 2015 draft and made his debut in Pittsburgh back in 2018 after being called up in late August. Newman appeared in 31 games for the club down the stretch but struggled badly in 97 trips to the plate, slashing just .209/.247/.231 during that time. Fortunately, Newman’s second taste of big league action went much better as the infielder posted the best season of his career in 2019. While acting as Pittsburgh’s regular shortstop, Newman slashed a solid .308/.353/.446 (109 wRC+) in 531 trips to the plate while striking out at a clip of just 11.7%.
Newman’s success did not last, however, as his offense cratered during the shortened 2020 season and his struggles at the plate continued into the 2021 season. While the Pirates stuck with Newman as their regular shortstop, he hit just .226/.268/.302 in a combined 726 trips to the plate across those two seasons. That production was good for a wRC+ of 52 that was 48% worse than league average and represents the worst slash line in the majors during that time among all regulars (min. 700 plate appearances). That weak production and a groin injury left Newman supplanted at shortstop by Oneil Cruz early in the 2022 season. Upon returning from injury in July and moving to second base, Newman provided the Pirates with decent production in the second half, slashing .279/.318/.371 (91 wRC+) in 257 trips to the plate from July 8 onward. Still, that improved production didn’t stop the Pirates from dealing Newman to Cincinnati last November in exchange for right-hander Dauri Moreta.
Joining the Reds ahead of the 2023 campaign left Newman to move into a part-time role as the club’s wave of young infielders including Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, and Elly De La Cruz took on regular roles throughout the season. Newman performed decently in his new role as a utility player, spending time at all four infield positions while slashing .253/.311/.364 (78 wRC+) in 253 trips to the plate, though his season was eventually cut short in mid-August by an oblique strain. The Reds then released Newman in late September, at which point he hit the open market.
The addition of Newman offers Arizona a high-contact bat capable of playing anywhere on the infield dirt. While his overall offensive profile leaves something to be desired, Newman’s ability to avoid strikeouts gives him value as a pinch-hitting option off the bench. Just 19 players with at least 200 plate appearances last season posted a strikeout rate lower than Newman’s 13.4% figure, and his career strikeout rate of 12% ranks sixth among active players with at least 1500 plate appearances since the start of 2018 season. That places him in rarefied air alongside the likes of Jeff McNeil, David Fletcher, and Yuli Gurriel.
Newman figures to continue in a utility role with the club. Though the details of his contract with the reigning NL champions are not yet available, Newman appears likely to battle with fellow utilityman Jace Peterson and infielder Emmanuel Rivera for a spot on the club’s bench this spring. Newman is the only member of that trio capable of playing shortstop, a fact that could give him a leg up even in spite of his relatively meager offensive production as he would likely serve as the club’s primary back-up to Gerlado Perdomo in the event that top prospect Jordan Lawler begins the season at Triple-A.
The Opener: Go, Blue Jays, Jensen
As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things worth keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Go, Padres nearing deal?
It was reported yesterday evening that right-hander Woo Suk Go of the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins was nearing a deal with the Padres. According to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, Go reportedly took a flight to San Diego overnight to finalize the deal with the Padres. Go’s posting window expires this afternoon at 4pm CT, meaning an announcement should come today if a deal is completed. In addition to Go’s salary, the Padres would be responsible for a posting fee paid to the LG Twins as compensation for Go’s services. Go, who sports a 2.39 ERA over 275 1/3 innings of work since the start of the 2019 season, figures to occupy a late-inning role for the Padres alongside fellow overseas signing Yuki Matsui.
2. Blue Jays presser:
As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins is expected to address the media at 9am CT this morning followed by recent signings Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa later in the day. The press conference comes on the heels of a December that saw the Blue Jays connected to many of the league’s top free agents including Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman. Since then, however, Toronto has come up short in their bids for both Ohtani and Yamamoto while the signings of Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa seemingly cast doubt on the club’s odds of landing Bellinger to play center field or reuniting with Chapman at third base. Will today’s presser provide additional clarity regarding Toronto’s pursuits of a the two biggest bats left on the market?
3. Jensen resolution incoming?
Right-hander Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins two weeks ago to make room for right-hander Roddery Munoz on the 40-man roster after Miami acquired him from the Pirates in a minor trade. Typically, a player can only be DFA’d for seven days before they must be assigned, but the clock is paused for the week between Christmas and New Year’s. That would leave Jensen likely to see a resolution to his DFA sometime today. The former first-round pick has been claimed off waivers twice in the past six months, but if the he passes through waivers successfully the Marlins can outright Jensen to Triple-A and retain him in the organization headed into the 2024 season without utilizing a 40-man roster spot.
Woo Suk Go Nearing Deal With Padres
Jan 3: The deal between the Padres and Go is a two-year guarantee worth “more than 9MM,” according to Jiheon Pae of Spochoo.com (Korean language link). Pae adds that the deal includes a club option. Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News relayed last night an announcement from the LG Twins that the club has given Go approval to sign with the Padres. At the time of Go’s posting, the Twins reportedly allowed Go to seek MLB opportunities with the condition that they could reverse their decision if the offers Go received from MLB clubs- and, subsequently, the posting fee the club would receive- were too low.
Jan 2: South Korean reliever Woo Suk Go is nearing an agreement with the Padres, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). It appears to be a major league contract, as Heyman suggests Go could serve as San Diego’s closer next season.
Go, a 25-year-old righty, has pitched parts of seven seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization. He has worked as a pure reliever throughout that time, operating as the closer for the LG Twins for the past five years. After struggling during his first two seasons as a teenager, Go has been a solid bullpen arm for a half-decade.
He has rattled off four seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, including three campaigns allowing fewer than 2.20 earned runs per nine. Go surpassed 30 saves in each of 2019, ’21 and ’22. He has fanned more than 26% of batters faced in each of the last five years, topping the 30% mark in the last two seasons.
While Go has consistently shown the ability to miss bats, he hasn’t always been around the strike zone. He has walked more than 10% of opposing hitters in four of his seven seasons. Go issued free passes to an alarming 11.6% of batters faced last year, contributing to a 3.68 ERA that made for more of a solid than exceptional platform showing.
Public scouting reports have generally pegged Go as a likely middle reliever at the big league level. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes that Go leans primarily on a mid-90s fastball and low-90s cutter while occasionally mixing in a curveball. That’s an intriguing arsenal, but the fringy control could make him a risk in higher-leverage spots.
San Diego has been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams in targeting players making the jump from Asian professional leagues. They recently signed lefty Yuki Matsui to a five-year, $28MM pact as he came over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It seems unlikely Go would match that kind of deal, but the Friars are clearly intrigued by his youth and swing-and-miss potential.
With Josh Hader, Nick Martinez and Luis García hitting free agency, the Padres have Matsui and Robert Suarez (another former NPB signee) as their top two leverage relievers. Go, assuming a contract is finalized, could join that mix alongside righty Enyel De Los Santos — whom San Diego acquired from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow this winter.
In addition to what they’d pay Go, San Diego would owe a release fee to the LG Twins under the MLB/KBO posting system. If the total guarantee is less than $25MM, the posting fee would be 20% of the contract’s value. If the guarantee topped $25MM, they’d owe 17.5% of the next $25MM. They’d owe 15% on any spending beyond $50MM, but it’s highly unlikely that Go received a deal approaching that level.
Details On Yuki Matsui’s Contract With Padres
The Padres finalized a five-year deal with NPB reliever Yuki Matsui at the end of December. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the $28MM pact contained a pair of opt-out chances, as well as a conditional option for the 2028 campaign depending on Matsui’s elbow health.
A report from The Associated Press lays out the specifics of the 28-year-old’s deal. Matsui’s ability to opt out after the 2026 season is conditional on avoiding a Tommy John surgery or any other elbow injury that requires an injured list stint of 130+ days between 2024-25. The salary breaks down as follows:
- $3.25MM in 2024
- $5.5MM in 2025
- $5.75MM in 2026
- $6.5MM in 2027
- $7MM in 2028
If Matsui suffers a significant elbow injury, the 2028 salary becomes a conditional team/player option. He also receives full no-trade protection and can bump the value of future years’ payments by up to $1.4MM annually based on the number of games he finishes.
The first opt-out decision comes with two years and $13.5MM in guarantees remaining. Passan reported that Matsui would also have the right to opt out after the ’27 campaign. If he plays out the full contract, he’ll be a free agent after 2028 despite not reaching six years of MLB service, according to the AP. That’s a common provision for players who sign guaranteed deals after a stint in the KBO or NPB.
D-Backs, Tucker Barnhart Agree To Minor League Deal
The Diamondbacks are in agreement with catcher Tucker Barnhart on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). He’ll be in camp as a non-roster invitee.
Arizona adds a defense-first catcher to their Spring Training group. Barnhart won a pair of Gold Gloves during his eight-year run with the Reds. Statcast has still graded him as a slightly above-average pitch framer over the past two seasons, but those numbers are down from his 2019-21 peak. It’s a similar story from a throwing perspective. Barnhart threw out a middling seven of 37 basestealers in 312 2/3 innings with the Cubs.
With nearly a decade of MLB experience, the 32-year-old has a strong reputation for his work with a pitching staff. That has always been his selling point. Barnhart has never provided league average production at the dish. His offensive numbers have been particularly poor over the past two years. In 431 plate appearances since the start of 2022, the left-handed hitter owns a .215/.286/.264 line.
Last winter, the Cubs signed Barnhart to a two-year, $6.5MM guarantee. He appeared in only 47 games before being released. Chicago turned to 24-year-old Miguel Amaya to pair with veteran Yan Gomes in August. Barnhart caught on with the Dodgers on a non-roster deal for the stretch run. He appeared in seven Triple-A games and never received a big league call.
Chicago is still responsible for Barnhart’s $3.25MM salary for the 2024 season. If he cracks Arizona’s roster, the Snakes would only owe him the prorated portion of the $740K league minimum for whatever time he spends in the majors. He’d be an inexpensive veteran option to back up Gabriel Moreno, who has clearly established himself as the organization’s #1 catcher.
Aside from Moreno, José Herrera stands as the only catcher on the 40-man roster. Herrera is a .198/.272/.231 hitter in 88 MLB games over the past two seasons. That gives Barnhart a solid chance to make the club out of camp. Former Rays and Red Sox prospect Ronaldo Hernández will also be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.
Yamamoto’s Opt-Out Dates Are Conditional On Elbow Health
The Dodgers signed NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325MM deal that set the record for the largest pitching guarantee. That included a pair of opt-out chances for the 25-year-old righty. He could be in line for an even loftier deal a few years down the line if he continues to perform like a top-of-the-rotation starter against MLB competition.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported that Yamamoto would be able to opt out of the contract after the 2029 and ’31 seasons. According to the Associated Press, that’s in part conditional on the pitcher’s arm health in the first six years of the deal. If Yamamoto undergoes Tommy John surgery or spends 134+ consecutive days on the injured list with a right elbow concern between 2024-29, his opt-out chances would be delayed until following the 2031 and ’33 seasons. In the absence of that significant of an elbow injury, he’d be able to opt out after 2029 and ’31 as initially reported.
Interestingly, the contract also includes an opt-out provision designed to keep him from being traded. The AP reports that if the Dodgers trade Yamamoto, that would vest an opt-out clause that’d allow him to become a free agent at the end of that season. While it’s not true no-trade protection, it makes it very difficult to deal him. Any acquiring team would have to account for the possibility that Yamamoto leaves the following winter.
Of course, the Dodgers didn’t sign Yamamoto with any intention of trading him in the foreseeable future. They’re going to be all-in for years to come, likely for the entire duration of Shohei Ohtani’s decade-long contract. Ohtani’s willingness to defer $68MM of his $70MM annual salaries afforded the organization more short-term leeway to acquire and extend Tyler Glasnow and to sign Yamamoto.
Yamamoto’s contract contains a massive $50MM signing bonus. The AP reports that he’ll be paid $20MM by the start of February and the other $30MM by July 1. His annual salary structure breaks down as follows:
- $5MM in 2024
- $10MM in 2025
- $12MM in 2026
- $26MM annually from 2027-29
- $29MM annually from 2030-31
- $28MM annually from 2032-35
He’ll thus be paid $155MM over the next six seasons. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. Were Yamamoto to suffer an elbow injury within the first six years and opt in after the 2031 and ’33 seasons, the Dodgers receive a $10MM option (no buyout) covering the 2036 season, the AP reports.
The salary breakdown does not affect the contract’s average annual value. The deal counts for approximately $27.08MM each year from a luxury tax perspective. The Dodgers also owe a $50.625MM posting fee to Yamamoto’s former team, the Orix Buffaloes, though that is separate from the CBT calculation.