Bryan Hoeing To Undergo Flexor Surgery
March 12: Hoeing will undergo flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2026 season, Acee reports. He’ll be paid around the MLB minimum and land on the 60-day injured list once the team needs a 40-man roster spot. Hoeing will qualify for arbitration next winter but could be a non-tender candidate.
March 9: Padres right-hander Bryan Hoeing may undergo some kind of elbow surgery. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the righty is rehabbing while he makes a decision about whether or not to go under the knife. Manager Craig Stammen tells Acee that the club expects the decision “relatively quickly.”
Just over a week ago, Hoeing was shut down due to some discomfort in his throwing elbow. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla seemed optimistic that it wouldn’t be a serious issue but perhaps new information has changed things.
Acee doesn’t specify exactly what kind of procedure is possible for Hoeing but most elbow surgeries require significant absences. On the extreme end, Tommy John surgery involves a recovery period of more than a year. Even something less serious like a procedure to remove bone spurs requires several months of recovery. Carlos Rodón underwent surgery for bone spurs in October and is targeting a return in April, a span of about six months.
There’s never a good time for a pitcher to have elbow surgery but right now would be particularly unfortunate for Hoeing. He seemed to have a breakout in 2024, posting a 2.18 earned run average in 53 2/3 innings, but he wasn’t able to build on that in 2025. A right shoulder strain put him on the shelf to start the year. He was activated off the IL in June but was mostly kept on optional assignment and struggled to get in a groove, posting a 4.70 ERA in Triple-A. He would be looking to bounce back in 2026 but surgery could get in the way of that.
Even if he can avoid surgery, Hoeing seems a lock to start the season on the IL. Even with him on the shelf, the bullpen competition looks tight. Acee writes that Kyle Hart is making a strong push for a spot. He has thrown 8 2/3 scoreless innings in spring training action thus far with seven strikeouts, allowing three hits and three walks while hitting one batter. He worked as a swingman last year but struggled, posting a 5.86 ERA in 43 innings.
Left-hander Yuki Matsui is a potential wild card, as he has been battling an adductor strain. Acee says Matsui has resumed defensive drills and throwing from a mound but is still questionable for Opening Day.
On paper, the Padres project to have eight bullpen spots taken by Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, Bradgley Rodríguez, Ron Marinaccio and Matsui. Of those eight guys, Morejón, Peralta, Matsui and Marinaccio can’t be optioned. Of the four who can, Miller surely won’t be. Estrada and Morgan aren’t likely to be sent down either, given their strong results. Rodríguez is more plausible, since he has just seven big league appearances under his belt. Jason Adam is questionable for Opening Day. If he’s healthy, he would likely bump Rodríguez to the minors.
That would make it hard to squeeze in Hart, who does still have an option, unless Matsui starts the season on the IL. Things could also get tightened further when Matt Waldron returns. He is going to start the season on the IL but isn’t expected to miss too much time. He is out of options and would need to squeeze someone out or be squeezed himself, unless further injuries pop up.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
Latest On Padres’ Bullpen Outlook
Padres right-hander Jason Adam has been targeting the Opening Day roster as he finished off his rehab from last year’s torn tendon in his quadriceps. The right-hander said three weeks back that team doctors hadn’t told him “no” on the possibility yet, and Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Adam could get back into games soon. He’s been ahead of schedule in camp and is slated for one final simulated game this week before a likely Cactus League debut on the weekend.
The 34-year-old Adam is a major piece of a deep San Diego bullpen. Over the past four seasons, he’s worked to a 2.07 ERA with 92 holds, 24 saves, a 29.2% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate across 256 2/3 innings between the Rays and Padres. If healthy, he’d join Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada as one of closer Mason Miller‘s top setup options.
A healthy Adam also leads to a relatively crowded bullpen that could force the Friars into some tough decisions. Miller, Estrada, Morejon and Adam would be locks for bullpen spots. That’s presumably true of righty David Morgan (2.64 ERA, 47 1/3 innings in 2025) as well. Lefties Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui are pitching on multi-year contracts and can’t be optioned.
That group accounts for seven of the Padres’ eight bullpen spots. Right-hander Ron Marinaccio is out of minor league options. Right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez has multiple option years left but has excelled in camp after impressing in a brief look last year. Righty Matt Waldron might start the season on the injured list, but he’s out of minor league options as well and would need to be added to the big league roster or designated for assignment. Bryan Hoeing is shut down with an elbow issue right now.
Having more talented relievers than bullpen spots available is obviously a nice problem to have, all things considered, and depending on the injury timetables of Adam and a couple teammates, the Friars might be able to kick any 40-man decisions down the road a bit for the early portion of the season. At some point, something will have to give on one of the players who can’t be sent down (whether due to contract or lack of minor league options.
That’s especially true if the Padres want to consider breaking camp with any non-roster invitees on the big league club. Veterans Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are among that group, but manager Craig Stammen has been talking up the chances of a different former big leaguer for a potential bullpen job: right-hander Logan Gillaspie.
“He just goes out there, competes his tail off, lot of energy and enthusiasm, throws a ton of strikes and gets a lot of outs,” manager Craig Stammen told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell when asked about Gillaspie. He noted that Gillaspie could be used in a multi-inning role, providing some length early in games if necessary.
The 28-year-old Gillaspie has pitched in each of the past four major league seasons, including 18 innings for San Diego across the 2024-25 campaigns. He’s had pedestrian results overall, but Gillaspie is a familiar hand for many Padres coaches and is in the midst of a strong spring training (7 2/3 shutout frames, 8-to-2 K/BB ratio). Cassavell suggests that Gillaspie is viewed as having a real chance to make the club, particularly if the Padres open the season with multiple veterans on the injured list.
Padres Shut Bryan Hoeing Down With Elbow Discomfort
Padres right-hander Bryan Hoeing is likely to miss the start of the season, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Per Acee, Hoeing is dealing with some discomfort in his throwing elbow and has been shut down by San Diego as a result. Acee added that pitching coach Ruben Niebla expressed some early optimism about the severity of the injury.
“We don’t think it’s as serious (as it could be), but we have to be conscious and take a look at it and be able to make the right assessments,” Niebla told reporters, as relayed by Acee.
More details on Hoeing’s status and timeline for return will surely be available in the coming days, once the team has had the opportunity to get Hoeing’s elbow looked at. In any case, it makes sense for the Padres to be extremely cautious with Hoeing at this point given how damaging a severe elbow injury can be to a player’s career. That’s especially true for the 29-year-old Hoeing, who pitched just eight innings in 2025 due to shoulder issues that left him sidelined for much of the 2025 season.
Despite that injury-plagued campaign last year, Hoeing figures to be firmly in the Padres’ bullpen mix if healthy. He enjoyed a breakout campaign with the Marlins in 2024 that got even better after being traded (alongside Tanner Scott) to San Diego at that year’s trade deadline. The righty sports a 2.34 ERA in 61 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2024 season, and has posted a sterling 1.99 ERA in 25 appearances as a member of the Padres. While he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, with a measly 19.5%, a 50.3% ground ball rate more than makes up for the lack of whiffs. That in combination with a manageable walk rate has led even more advanced metrics like SIERA (3.77) to be generally impressed with his work over the past two years in spite of their general favor for pitchers with high strikeout rates.
Of course, in a stacked Padres bullpen that likely left Hoeing in position to receive only middle relief work, as the late innings are set to be handled by a combination of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, and David Morgan. Hoeing could theoretically work his way into that mix with another big year like 2024, but for now seems more likely to handle the middle innings alongside Yuki Matsui when the pair are healthy. Matsui has also been sidelined of late due to an adductor strain, but Acee suggests the 30-year-old southpaw is more likely to be ready for the start of the season than Hoeing. Comments from Niebla seem to corroborate that, as the team’s pitching coach actually suggested Matsui could start throwing off the mound later this week.
NL West Notes: Adam, Matsui, Hentges, Rushing
Padres reliever Jason Adam underwent surgery to fix a ruptured left quad last September, and as of November, Adam wasn’t sure if he’d be fully recovered in time for Opening Day. However, the early days of Spring Training have been promising for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Adam pitched a live batting practice for the first time today, and Adam is making slow but steady progress in fielding drills.
“Pitching-wise, we’re…beyond on pace. It’s just a matter of being cleared” by San Diego’s medical staff, Adam said. In terms of Opening Day readiness, Adam said the team’s trainers “haven’t told me ‘no’ yet.”
One of baseball’s top relievers over the last four seasons, Adam has a 1.66 ERA over 92 innings since the Padres acquired the righty from the Rays at the 2024 trade deadline. While the Padres still have an elite bullpen even without Adam, getting the All-Star back and healthy as early as possible in 2026 will be a huge boost to San Diego’s chances of both returning to the postseason and making a deeper run into October.
More from around the NL West…
- While things are looking positive for Adam, fellow Padres reliever Yuki Matsui is day-to-day with groin tightness after his injury cut short a live BP session on Thursday. Manager Craig Stammen told Acee and other reporters that the groin issue doesn’t appear to be serious enough to impact Matsui’s readiness for Opening Day, but it may well prevent the reliever from playing for Japan in the World Baseball Classic. Since signing a five-year, $28MM deal with the Padres in the 2023-24 offseason, Matsui has a solid but unspectacular 3.86 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate across 126 relief innings.
- Sam Hentges has thrown multiple 40-pitch bullpen sessions in the Giants‘ camp thus far, but he tells MLB.com’s Maria Guardado that he doesn’t have a set throwing progression in place, and it isn’t clear if he’ll be part of San Francisco’s Opening Day roster. The Giants signed the left-hander to a one-year, $1.4MM contract in December, even though Hentges hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 2024 (or in the minors since August 2024). A shoulder surgery was responsible for most of that layoff, but Hentges also underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee this past September, which delayed his offseason prep and the final stages of his shoulder rehab. Hentges acknowledged that his long absence played a role in the Giants’ decision to take it slowly with his spring work, though he is hoping to pitch in some games before Spring Training is over.
- Dalton Rushing‘s short-lived turn as an outfielder could be over, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Rushing will be used this season as a backup catcher and occasional first baseman. Rushing played in 31 minor-league games as an outfielder in 2024, but was on the grass just twice with Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2025, and he didn’t see any outfield work after making his MLB debut with Los Angeles. The former top prospect’s positional future has been a question mark ever since L.A. signed Will Smith to a ten-year extension in March 2024, locking Smith up as the Dodgers’ catcher for the foreseeable future. Between Smith’s extension, Shohei Ohtani set as the DH, and Freddie Freeman at first base, Rushing could be limited to part-time duty perhaps for the next two seasons, until Freeman’s contract is up following the 2027 campaign. While there has been plenty of speculation that the Dodgers could swing a trade, the team seems to still have designs on Rushing (who turns 25 tomorrow) as a key piece of their roster.
NL West Notes: Walker, D’Backs, Winn, Matsui, Amador, Rockies
There hasn’t been “too much” talk between Christian Walker‘s representatives and the Diamondbacks about a contract extension, though the first baseman told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he “loves” playing for the team. However, Walker is also interested in the idea of testing free agency next winter after the humble beginnings of his career, as he bounced around to multiple teams and didn’t become a real big league regular until 2019, his third season in Arizona. “To look back, it’s a sense of accomplishment. Like, wow, we’ve created this leverage; it’s a thing now,” Walker said. “We have the ball in our court. It hasn’t always felt that way….I think it’s motivating to keep wanting to head in that direction.”
Walker will be 34 on Opening Day 2025, so hitting the market at something of an advanced age is likely to limit his chances at an overly lengthy contract. He is a first base-only player, yet with the benefit of being baseball’s best defensive first baseman, as the winner of the last two Fielding Bible Awards and Gold Gloves at the position. To go along with his superb glove, Walker has also hit .253/.332/.463 with 115 homers over 2619 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season, translating to a 112 wRC+. (Over the last two seasons in particular, Walker has 69 homers and a 112 wRC+.)
It will be interesting to see if the D’Backs could work out a way to re-sign Walker, as the team is projected for a club record $143MM payroll heading into 2024, but a decent chunk of money is coming off the books next offseason. This could provide an opening for a reunion between the D’Backs and the underrated first baseman, if an extension isn’t reached before Walker even gets to free agency.
More from around the NL West…
- Keaton Winn‘s sore right elbow has “calmed down” after a bout of nerve irritation, the Giants rookie told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Winn didn’t need a cortisone shot and has been cleared to start throwing again, so he believes he’ll have plenty of time to ramp up in time for Opening Day. The 26-year-old right-hander made his MLB debut in 2023, and is one of several young starters the Giants are counting on through at least the early part of the season before Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray are slated to return from the injured list.
- Newly-signed Padres reliever Yuki Matsui is day-to-day with back spasms, manager Mike Shildt told reporters from 97.3 The Fan (X link) and other media outlets. The problem doesn’t appear to be too serious, but Shildt said the team is just taking a precautionary measure this early in camp. After an outstanding career in Japan, Matsui made the jump to the majors this winter, signing with the Padres to an interestingly structured five-year deal that will pay the left-hander $28MM in guaranteed money.
- Top Rockies prospect Adael Amador had an injury-shortened 2023 season and has only played 10 games at the Double-A level, so it might still be a while before we see Amador in the Show. However, his development this season will not only hasten his own potential path to the majors, but if Amador plays well, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post feels it might make the Rox more open to trading Brendan Rodgers to clear room at second base. It wasn’t long ago that Rodgers was also seen as something of a building block in Colorado, though Rodgers played in only 46 games last season due to shoulder surgery and didn’t hit well after returning to action. Since Rodgers is only under team control through the 2025 season, there has been some sense that Amador is already viewed as the long-term replacement, and the Rockies have explored dealing Rodgers in the past. Of course, this all might hinge on how well Rodgers plays in the early part of the 2024 campaign and whether or not he can rebuild his stock either as a trade chip or as part of Colorado’s future plans.
Details On Yuki Matsui’s Contract With Padres
The Padres finalized a five-year deal with NPB reliever Yuki Matsui at the end of December. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the $28MM pact contained a pair of opt-out chances, as well as a conditional option for the 2028 campaign depending on Matsui’s elbow health.
A report from The Associated Press lays out the specifics of the 28-year-old’s deal. Matsui’s ability to opt out after the 2026 season is conditional on avoiding a Tommy John surgery or any other elbow injury that requires an injured list stint of 130+ days between 2024-25. The salary breaks down as follows:
- $3.25MM in 2024
- $5.5MM in 2025
- $5.75MM in 2026
- $6.5MM in 2027
- $7MM in 2028
If Matsui suffers a significant elbow injury, the 2028 salary becomes a conditional team/player option. He also receives full no-trade protection and can bump the value of future years’ payments by up to $1.4MM annually based on the number of games he finishes.
The first opt-out decision comes with two years and $13.5MM in guarantees remaining. Passan reported that Matsui would also have the right to opt out after the ’27 campaign. If he plays out the full contract, he’ll be a free agent after 2028 despite not reaching six years of MLB service, according to the AP. That’s a common provision for players who sign guaranteed deals after a stint in the KBO or NPB.
Padres Sign Yuki Matsui To Five-Year Deal
The Padres have signed left-hander Yuki Matsui to a five-year contract, the club has announced. Matsui and the Padres were reportedly close to a deal earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Matsui will receive $28MM guaranteed over the life of the contract, which includes opt-outs after the third and fourth seasons of the deal as well as an injury clause that can convert the fifth year of the contract into a club option worth $7MM if Matsui suffers a “serious” elbow injury during the life of the contract.
The deal represents San Diego’s first significant buy-side move of the offseason, and their first major move since trading star slugger Juan Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees earlier this month for a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe. It’s a somewhat unusual deal for a reliever; right-hander Robert Suarez‘s agreement with the Padres and the record-breaking deal between star closer Edwin Diaz and the Mets, both of which were signed last offseason, are the only contracts for free agent relievers to surpass five years.
Matsui landed at #43 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $16MM deal. Matsui nearly doubled that guarantee, though the average annual value of his deal comes in at just $5.6MM, well below the $8MM MLBTR projected him for over a two-year apct. Despite the unusual length of the deal, the gamble is an understandable one for the Padres to make. The deal covers Matsui’s age-28 through -32 seasons, with his first opt-out opportunity coming after Matsui’s age-30 campaign in 2026. The lowered AAV of the deal was surely particularly appealing to the Padres, who are reportedly hoping to stay under the luxury tax in 2024. Given those financial constraints, Matsui’s deal represents a more cost-effective alternative to reuniting with relief ace Josh Hader, who MLBTR projected for a whopping six-year, $110MM guarantee on the heels of a dominant season as San Diego’s closer.
While Matsui can’t be reasonably expected to match Hader’s incredible production last season (1.28 ERA and 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings), the lefty has put together an excellent career overseas in his own right. Matsui’s spent the past ten seasons pitching for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Tohuku Rakuten Golden Eagles. During his NPB career, Matsui has racked up 236 saves in 501 appearances while earning five All Star nods. In 659 2/3 innings of work during his career, Matsui sports a sterling 2.40 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate. He’s been even more impressive over the past three seasons, a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time.
Matsui was a frequent subject of MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series throughout the 2023 season, where Dai Takegami Podziewski discussed Matsui’s four-pitch mix that includes a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96 along with a splitter, slider, and curveball while also noting that Matsui reportedly struggled to adjust to the MLB ball while participating in the World Baseball Classic last spring. Clearly, the Padres were more enticed by Matsui’s deep pitch mix and impressive velocity for a lefty who is listed at just 5’8” and 167 pounds than they were concerned by his struggles to adjust to the ball used in the majors earlier this year.
While the addition of Matsui shores up a Padres bullpen lacking in certainty, there’s plenty left for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office to do if they hope to return to contention in 2024. Another set-up arm to pair with Matsui and Suarez at the back of the bullpen would be helpful, and at least one more starting pitcher who can step into the void left by the departures of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez this offseason alongside King appears to be all but necessary.
On the hitting side of things, the Padres have just two outfielders on their 40-man roster at the moment in Fernando Tatis Jr. and fourth outfielder Jose Azocar, meaning they’ll need to make multiple additions to the lineup to cover the two vacant outfield spots and DH, which lacks a clear starter following the deal that sent Matt Carpenter and his salary to Atlanta earlier in the month.
That’s a hefty shopping list for any club, but it’s especially daunting for a Padres club that projects for a $210MM luxury tax payroll per RosterResource. If the Padres are indeed intent on staying under the first tax threshold of $237MM in 2024, that gives them just under $27MM of payroll space left to work with this offseason as they look to fill the remaining holes in the lineup and pitching staff. While the addition of Matsui is a step in the right direction that didn’t eat into the club’s financial capabilities too excessively, the Padres clearly still have plenty of work to do before they’re ready to contend in an ever-improving NL West next year.
Padres Reportedly Close To Signing Yuki Matsui
The Padres are close to signing a deal with free agent left-hander Yuki Matsui, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Earlier, Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X links) reported that the Friars had offered Matsui a contract and also relayed a Japanese-language report from Sankei Sports. The Google translation of that report says that the southpaw has already undergone a medical check, though it seems nothing is official quite yet. Morosi relays that it will be a multi-year deal, though the financial are not yet known at this time.
Matsui, 28, is a left-handed reliever that has 10 years of experience in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, having debuted back in 2014. He has an earned run average of 2.40 in his 501 career games, tossing 659 2/3 innings. He has 236 saves in that time, including at least 24 in each of the past three campaigns. He’s coming off a strong 2023 season as well, with a tiny ERA of 1.57 while recording 39 saves. He struck out 32.4% of batters faced this year while walking just 5.9%.
In addition to his excellent results, Matsui is notable for his size, listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds. That unusual frame didn’t stop MLB clubs from having interest, with the Cardinals having recently hosted Matsui in St. Louis, though the Padres will apparently be the one to seal the deal.
Beyond his skills, Matsui surely intrigued clubs due to the fact that he reached proper free agency by reaching nine years of service time. Unlike some other pitchers coming over from Japan, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Matsui isn’t currently connected to any NPB club. That means the MLB club that signs him won’t be subject to a posting fee on top of the contract itself.
Matsui has consistently featured on MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series this year, with Dai Takegami Podziewski reporting on Matsui’s four-pitch mix, featuring a fastball, splitter, slider and curveball. The southpaw reportedly had some trouble adapting to the ball in the World Baseball Classic, which is closer to the one used in MLB. There’s always some uncertainty with foreign players since they are unproven in North America, and while Matsui’s size and issues with the WBC ball perhaps add to that, clubs are often intrigued by the possibility of unearthing a hidden gem.
That’s especially true of the Padres, for whom the budget has been a focus all year. Due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the club’s broadcast rights reverted to MLB during the year. It was later reported that the Friars took out a loan to cover expenses and all recent reporting has pointed to a drop in payroll relative to recent years, likely resulting in them staying under the competitive balance tax in 2024.
Their offseason moves to this point have mostly been about clearing out payroll space. The Padres sent outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for five players, then sent lefty Ray Kerr to Atlanta as a means to get some of Matt Carpenter‘s contract off the books.
Roster Resource currently pegs the club CBT number at $205MM for next year, with the base threshold to be $237MM. That gives the club a bit of room to work with but they still have some things to do. They likely want to find two outfielders to replace Soto and Grisham while also perhaps looking for a designated hitter and some more starting pitching.
But the bullpen is also an issue, with Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, Luis García and Tim Hill now free agents. That means the club will have work to do just to get back to 2023 levels, when their relievers posted a collective ERA of 3.80, the tenth-best mark in the league.
No one is going to expect Matsui to replace Hader as one of the best relievers in the league, but he can certainly bolster the club’s southpaw relief mix, which currently consists of Tom Cosgrove and Adrián Morejón. The former had a solid season in 2023 but still has less than a year of major league experience, while the latter has had ongoing injury issues and is coming off a poor showing this year. Perhaps this is the first of many moves as the Padres pivot from subtracting salary to adding it, looking to fill out the roster for 2024.
Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Bullpen Help
The Cardinals acted quickly to reshape their rotation this offseason, signing right-handers Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn within a span of a week. They’ve since shipped outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox in a trade that netted a pair of potential bullpen arms, but they’re not done looking for help in their relief corps. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier this week that the Cards have at least held internal discussions about free agent righty Hector Neris, and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Cardinals hosted star NPB lefty Yuki Matsui for a meeting in St. Louis just yesterday. Goold also again linked the Cards to free agent Phil Maton, to whom they’ve been previously tied.
The meeting with Matsui is the more notable development at the moment. Reports out of Japan back in October pegged the Cardinals as a team with interest in the five-time NPB All-Star, but a sitdown in St. Louis is a more concrete indicator.
The 28-year-old Matsui has saved 30 or more games for the Rakuten Golden Eagles on six different occasions, including this past season’s career-high mark of 39. He pitched 57 1/3 innings in 2023 and worked to a scintillating 1.57 ERA, giving him three straight seasons with an ERA that clocked in under 2.00. Matsui also fanned nearly a third of his opponents and turned in a 5.9% walk rate. Dating back to 2019, the southpaw boasts a 2.20 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.
Matsui’s track record in Japan is clearly excellent, but there’s at least some reason to think MLB clubs might have some trepidation. He’s listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds — a Tim Collins-esque frame that rarely has found much success in the big leagues. MLBTR spoke to multiple scouts and evaluators about Matsui and other international free agents prior to the onset of free agency and received mixed reviews, though Matsui did draw praise for his slider and deceptive delivery. Every team’s opinion on Matsui will vary, of course, and it stands to reason that there are big league clubs that believe he can be a viable late-inning reliever in North American ball — even if he can’t quite replicate his staggering NPB numbers.
Because of his lengthy track record in NPB — he’s pitched 10 full seasons despite his youth — Matsui accrued enough service time to be a free agent who can sign in MLB without being subject to the MLB/NPB posting system. (NPB requires nine years of service to become an unrestricted free agent.) That fact, coupled with his age and his year-over-year excellence could help to mitigate concerns about Matsui’s size and lead to a multi-year deal.
Neris, meanwhile, is more of a known commodity. He’s accrued more than eight years of MLB service time since debuting with the Phillies back in 2014 and has regularly been a high-leverage option for both the Phillies and Astros — the only two clubs for whom he’s pitched to this point in his career. Neris logged 68 1/3 innings with the ‘Stros in 2023, posting a pristine 1.71 ERA in his second season with Houston. His two-year, $17MM deal with Houston contained a club option for 2025, but a clause in his contract converted that to a player option depending on Neris’ workload. He remained healthy and effective in his time with Houston and wound up vesting that player option, which he declined in search of another multi-year deal.
Last year’s shiny ERA is certainly eye-catching, though Neris’ 11.4% walk rate and tiny .219 average on balls in play are among the reasons that fielding-independent metrics are more bearish on his most recent performance (3.83 FIP, 3.89 SIERA). Those are still fine marks, of course, and Neris still fanned 28.2% of his opponents with swinging-strike and chase rates (14.1% and 35.1%, respectively) that were well north of the league average. Dating back to 2018, Neris sports a terrific 31.3% strikeout rate. He’s also avoided the injured list almost entirely in his big league career, with his only IL trip coming back in 2020, when he spent three weeks on the Covid-related IL.
Ryan Helsley will likely reprise his role as the Cardinals’ closer and be supported by Giovanny Gallegos and out-of-options southpaw JoJo Romero next season. The remainder of the Cardinals’ bullpen is a bit more fluid, with Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson, Nick Robertson (acquired from Boston for O’Neill) and Matthew Liberatore among the options for manager Oli Marmol. The Cardinals’ activity thus far has pushed their payroll a bit north of $175MM, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has previously hinted that there’s room to further add to that figure.
Cardinals Expect To Add Bullpen Help Via Free Agency
The Cardinals have made no secret of their desire to add to the bullpen. Having accomplished their goal of bringing in three starting pitchers, St. Louis is prioritizing the relief corps.
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested this evening the organization is likelier to add to the bullpen via free agency than in trade (relayed by Katie Woo of the Athletic). That’s a little surprising considering the Cards have been open about their willingness to trade a position player — Mozeliak candidly admitted they’re fielding offers on Tyler O’Neill yesterday — for pitching help.
Of course, noting that a free agent acquisition is more probable than a trade doesn’t close the latter avenue completely. The front office is surely exploring both paths. On the free agent front, reports have loosely linked St. Louis to Phil Maton, NPB closer Yuki Matsui and old friend Jordan Hicks.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (on X) that the Cards have also discussed KBO pitcher Woo Suk Go. The LG Twins have made Go available to MLB teams via the posting system. A 25-year-old righty, Go turned in a 3.68 ERA over 44 innings this past season. He struck out an excellent 31.1% of opposing hitters but walked an elevated 11.8% of batters faced.
Go has until January 3 to decide whether to sign with a major league club or stay in South Korea. He’s not expected to command the same level of contract as either Maton or Matsui (and certainly won’t approach what it would cost to reunite with Hicks). The Cardinals project for a payroll in the $180MM range, according to Roster Resource. That’s a little above this year’s approximate $177MM Opening Day mark.
Mozeliak has previously suggested the Cards would keep their payroll steady, so they could be fairly close to their budgetary limit. The front office head unsurprisingly confirmed last night that the Cards were not going to top the $237MM luxury tax threshold (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Roster Resource projects the franchise’s CBT number around $208MM, a fair bit south of the base tax tier.