Several Teams Interested In Vladimir Gutierrez
Free agent right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez has several teams interested in him, reports Francys Romero.
Gutierrez, now 28, was once a high-profile prospect that signed with the Reds after he defected from his native Cuba. The club gave him a bonus of $4.75MM but effectively had to pay double under the old bonus system, a 100% tax for going over their limit. That meant they paid $9.5MM to get Gutierrez into the system.
As he worked his way up the minors, he became a notable prospect in their system, with Baseball America ranking him one of the 10 best Reds’ prospects in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. His stock has dimmed since then, however. In 2020, before he had reached the majors, he received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He was nonetheless added to the club’s 40-man roster to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. He went on to appear in 32 games over the 2021 and 2022 seasons but required Tommy John surgery in July of 2022. He made five minor league appearances late in 2023 as part of a rehab assignment but was still on the IL at season’s end.
He was set to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a modest bump to $1MM. That’s barely above the major league minimum salary, which will be $740K in 2024. But the Reds evidently didn’t want to give him that raise, as he was outrighted off the roster in October. Now he’ll be looking to jump to a new organization for the first time in his career.
He once looked like a potentially useful rotation piece, making 22 starts for the Reds in 2021 when he was just 25 years old, posting a 4.74 earned run average. His 17.7% strikeout rate was subpar but his 9.3% walk rate and 43.4% ground ball rate were around league average. Unfortunately, his results were rough in 2022, as his ERA jumped to 7.61 before he went under the knife. During his brief rehab assignment in 2023, he struck out 25.9% of batters faced but also showed plenty of rust with a 22.2% walk rate.
Now a free agent, Gutierrez would be a low-cost project for any club that signs him. He still has a couple of option years, meaning he could be kept in the minors as a depth piece by any club that gave him a roster spot. He’s also shy of three years of service time, meaning he could potentially be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he is able to get into good form.
All reporting indicates the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason and some clubs will inevitably miss out on the costlier free agents, which will leave them looking for cheaper options. Even big spending clubs needs to have depth pieces, which could give Gutierrez widespread appeal, given his options and cheap club control.
Multiple Clubs Interested In Noah Syndergaard
Free agent right-hander Noah Syndergaard is reportedly drawing interest from multiple clubs. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided relayed that teams are looking at the righty as a bounceback candidate and hoping for a buy-low opportunity.
It’s understandable why clubs would consider such a move but the reason that Syndergaard is available in a buy-low situation is that his 2023 was so dismal. He signed a one-year, $13MM deal with the Dodgers but posted an earned run average of 7.16 in his 12 starts for that club. He was flipped to the Guardians at the deadline in a swap of struggling players, with Amed Rosario going to the Dodgers. Syndergaard took the ball six times for the Guards with slightly better results, as his ERA was 5.40 in those. But he was nonetheless designated for assignment and released at the end of August. He didn’t sign anywhere else for the final month of the season.
Despite that rough campaign, Syndergaard might be a beneficiary of the robust market for starting pitchers, as various reports suggest that the demand for rotation help is incredibly high. Aaron Nola got a hefty $172MM guarantee over seven years to return to the Phillies. But even Lance Lynn, who was coming off a very poor season, received a guarantee of $11MM on a one-year deal with the Cardinals.
That perhaps gives some hope to Syndergaard, but on the other hand, his strong results are now pretty far in the past. Lynn had a 5.73 ERA in 2023 while allowing 44 home runs but he still struck out 23.6% of batters. He also had a much more palatable ERA of 3.99 in 2022 with a 24.2% strikeout rate. Despite his struggles this year, there are at least some encouraging things under the hood.
It’s hard to say the same for Syndergaard, who struck out just 14.3% of batters faced in 2023. Like Lynn, his ERA was much better in 2022, coming in at 3.94. But he did that despite striking out just 16.8% of opponents in that season. He missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery so a bit of rust was to be expected but he’s yet to show signs of returning anywhere near his pre-surgery form.
From 2015 to 2019, he posted a 3.31 ERA over 716 innings. In the process, he struck out 26.4% of batters faced, walked just 5.7% and kept 49.1% of balls in play on the ground. Prior to the surgery, his four-seam fastball and sinker each average between 97 and 99 mph but the past two years have seen him average in the 92-94 mph range. His slider averaged 92-93 mph before he went under the knife but he’s been around 85 mph since. Those diminished weapons have naturally reduced his ability to punch out big league hitters and he’s now had four straight years of either being injured or posting middling results.
Now 31, it’s fair to wonder if there’s a path to turn things around. The Dodgers and Guardians are two organizations with strong reputations for getting the most out of pitchers but each gave up on Syndergaard last year. Though if the market for starters is as strong as the reporting indicates, the contracts for the top guys will be wild and there figures to be strong competition for even mid-rotation arms and back-end guys. More than half the league has reportedly checked in on Seth Lugo while, as mentioned, Lynn got an eight-figure guarantee coming off a nightmare season. Perhaps that will lead some club to taking a flier on Syndergaard and hoping for the best.
The Opener: Black Friday Deals, DeJong, Longoria
Here are three things we’re monitoring as we cobble some leftovers together…
1. Black Friday deals:
Now that Thanksgiving has passed, it’s time to find deals. That applies both for regular shoppers and for baseball teams, with Chad Thornburg of MLB.com putting together a list of notable transactions that took place on Black Friday in recent years. The Mets were particularly busy in 2021, agreeing to terms with Starling Marte and Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. The deals wouldn’t be official until the following week, but news broke on all three deals on Black Friday. It also seems like the Canadians, who celebrate Thanksgiving in October, like to tiptoe in while the Americans are logy. The Blue Jays traded for Josh Donaldson on Black Friday in 2014 and then signed J.A. Happ one year later. Will 2023 see any kind of similar activity?
2. DeJong needs a roster spot:
The White Sox and shortstop Paul DeJong agreed to a major league deal earlier this week, but it’s still pending a physical. The Sox have a full 40-man roster, so they will have to open up a spot for him whenever it’s official. It’s possible that the holiday will delay that physical until next week, giving the club some time to perhaps consider a trade that opens a spot for him.
3. What’s next for Longoria?
As a free agent a year ago, Evan Longoria had a reported preference to sign with either the Rays, Giants or Diamondbacks. For the Rays and Giants, he was familiar with them as those were the only two clubs he had previously played with, while the D’Backs were on the list because he has a home in Arizona. He ended up signing a one-year deal with the Snakes and that club had a magical season, going all the way to the World Series. But the D’Backs just replaced him at the hot corner by acquiring Eugenio Suárez from the Mariners. The Giants have J.D. Davis and have been connected to free agent Matt Chapman. The Rays have Isaac Paredes at third and are seemingly looking to cut costs, considering trades for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. It was reported last month that Longoria was leaning towards playing again in 2024 but it’s possible he may have to be more open-minded about his landing spot.
Jung Hoo Lee Likely To Be Posted In Early December
11:02PM: The KBO officially requested to Major League Baseball that Lee be posted (reporter Jiheon Pae had the news first, and thanks to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz for the update). This doesn’t necessarily speed up the timeline reported by Yoo earlier tonight, as Yoo reiterated that “with the Thanksgiving holiday, the process likely won’t begin in earnest until early December.” Once Lee is posted, his window will only be 30 days, not 45. The change to a 45-day posting period was made last offseason for NPB players, though it appears as though players coming from the KBO League have just the original 30 days to find a contract.
9:42PM: The Kiwoom Heroes gave Jung Hoo Lee‘s medical records to KBO League officials yesterday, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports (via X). Between the usual review protocols between both the KBO and then MLB officials, Yoo figures that Lee will be officially posted for Major League teams in early December, factoring in a bit of delay given the Thanksgiving holiday.
That will officially open the floodgates on what is expected to be a brisk market for Lee’s services, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that 20 teams are interested in the outfielder. With this many teams potentially in the hunt, it certainly seems like Lee could match or exceed MLBTR’s projection of a five-year, $50MM contract, a prediction made due to both Lee’s impressive track record in South Korea and the fact that he is only 25 years old. The Giants, Yankees, and Padres are the teams who have been publicly linked to Lee’s market to date.
While Lee’s expected price tag will be much lower than that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the two players share some market similarities due to their young age of 25. In theory, both have lots of prime years ahead and perhaps haven’t even reached their peak, whereas many players coming to the majors from Japan or South Korea are already in their late 20’s or into their 30’s by the time they’re posted, or by the time they amass enough service time for full free agency.
Because NPB is seen as a higher caliber of league than the KBO and because Yamamoto is seen as more of a true elite talent, his expected contract will naturally be higher than Lee’s, since some scouts aren’t entirely sold on how Lee’s bat will translate to much power against MLB pitching. Some comps have been made to Masataka Yoshida but with a higher defensive ceiling, even if Lee might not stick in center field. Lee’s platform year was also limited to 86 games due to season-ending ankle surgery, and while he should be healthy for Spring Training, he missed a critical chance to further showcase himself for any doubting evaluators.
In short, there’s plenty of room for variance on the kinds of offers that Lee might get, since there’s bound to be a wide range of opinions within a 20-team field. Some teams might drop out of the running simply because they’ve made other outfield acquisitions in the interim, maybe before Lee’s posting window even opens. Other teams who have a larger presence in international scouting will have more data on Lee, though that perhaps would work either for or against him depending on a club’s opinion.
As per the league posting rules, Lee will have 45 days to sign with a Major League team once his posting period opens. If he can’t land a contract within those 45 days, he’ll return to the Heroes for the 2024 KBO season and have to wait until next winter for another chance at coming to the big leagues. While it seems likely Lee will find an acceptable deal to come to North America, a return to South Korea can’t be entirely ruled out. There could be lingering concerns over his health or perhaps just how he’ll adjust to the majors, or Lee and his agents at the Boras Corporation might not be satisfied with the offers on the table.
The Heroes will receive a posting fee tied to Lee’s eventual contract, with the new MLB club paying this fee on top of what they give to Lee himself. The Heroes will get 20% of the first $25MM of a contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything beyond the $50MM threshold. At MLBTR’s projection of a $50MM deal, the Heroes would get a $9.375MM posting fee.
NL Notes: Playoff Shares, D’Backs, Gibson, Price, Mets
Championship rings carry much greater import than financial gain during a postseason run, but teams that reach the playoffs get extra revenue that is divvied up into shares. The Associated Press reported the figures on the 2023 playoff pool earlier this week, and how the $107.8MM in playoff revenue was divided amongst the 12 playoff teams, with more money naturally going to the teams who advanced furthest. According to numbers released by the league, the Rangers got $38.8MM (split into 64 full shares, 12.56 partial shares and $48,000 in cash awards) and the Diamondbacks got 71 full shares and 11.49 partial shares out of their bonus of $25.9MM.
How the shares are awarded within a clubhouse is determined by veteran players on each team. Several players and managers automatically qualify for full shares, but the players must then vote on what other players (such as someone who was with the club for only part of the season) or uniformed personnel (coaches, trainers, support staff, etc.) will also get full or partial shares. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal shared some insight into the process, and how the D’Backs made their decisions in who and who didn’t get a $313.6K full share, but the team did its best to spread the wealth. “I’m not rolling my eyes over a $300K check. I’m just saying the impact that it has on me is not going to be as significant as on any of our younger players who have limited service time or our clubhouse attendants or our kitchen attendants,” Evan Longoria said. “That impact is going to be much, much more for them….I want you guys to understand the perspective that I’m coming from when I say it’s life-changing for these people.”
More from around the National League…
- The Cardinals‘ signing of Kyle Gibson this week ended a very long pursuit, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted that the team’s interest in the right-hander dated all the way back to Gibson’s 2009 draft year. “Multiple times since, the Cardinals have attempted to sign or trade for Gibson” Goold wrote, before finally landing Gibson on a one-year, $12MM deal. The local connection was obvious, as Gibson played his college ball at the University of Missouri and he already lives in the greater St. Louis area during the offseason. The righty’s results have been up-and-down over his 11 MLB seasons, but Gibson’s ability to eat innings should be very valuable for a Cardinals team badly in need of rotation depth before Gibson and Lance Lynn were brought on board.
- Newly-hired Giants pitching coach Bryan Price spoke with The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly this week about his decision to join the team, and end his three-year retirement from coaching. Price had spent the last two years working as a a special advisor with the Padres and working with longtime friend and colleague Bob Melvin, so when Melvin left the Padres to become the Giants’ new skipper, Price couldn’t resist a reunion in his hometown of San Francisco. Giants fans might also be interested in Price’s more old-school approach to pitching, coming off a 2023 season that saw the team use mostly bulk pitchers, openers, and piggyback starters to cover innings in patchwork fashion. “I’m a simple person when it comes to my overview on pitching: The starters pitch the bulk of the innings and you utilize your bullpen as needed….So we can be creative but we’ve got to be responsibly creative in how we use the data and what we decide is usable information versus what takes us into a place where we’re constantly chasing greatness and it’s only taking us into mediocrity or failure,” Price said.
- Before the Mets hired John Gibbons as their new bench coach, the New York Post’s Mike Puma reported that Phil Nevin was a candidate for the job. Let go as the Angels’ manager after the season, Nevin has a long relationship with Mets skipper Carlos Mendoza from their days on the Yankees’ coaching staff. There was some speculation that former Mets manager Willie Randolph might’ve been a candidate for the bench coach job given Mendoza’s praise of his former mentor, but Newsday’s Anthony Rieber suggests Randolph could still return to the Mets in another capacity.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read the transcript of the Thanksgiving edition of the live baseball chat
Padres Interviewed Adrian Gonzalez During Managerial Search
Former Padres star Adrian Gonzalez was interviewed as part of the team’s recent managerial search, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and MLB Network’s David Vassegh. Gonzalez made it deep into the process, with Vassegh describing him as one of three finalists for the job, along with bench coach and eventual hire Mike Shildt.
Among the known candidates, Shildt and Phil Nevin had managed at the MLB level before, while Flaherty, Carlos Mendoza (hired by the Mets as their manager) and Benji Gil had experience on Major League coaching staffs. Gonzalez was an outlier in comparison, as he doesn’t have any experience as a manager or coach in the big leagues or even in the minors. While most of San Diego’s candidates were former players, the 41-year-old Gonzalez brought perhaps a different perspective as not only a player, but as an established superstar during his 15-year MLB career.
This might be the first managerial search in baseball history to ever include two former first overall draft picks, between Nevin (selected first overall in 1992) and Gonzalez (in 2000). Gonzalez lived up to that lofty potential by hitting .287/.358/.485 with 317 homers over his 8046 career plate appearances. His resume included five All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, three finishes within the top seven of MVP voting, and just recently became eligible for the Cooperstown ballot since it has been five full seasons since his last Major League game. While Gonzalez isn’t likely to receive induction to the Hall of Fame, just making the ballot is a notable recognition of an outstanding career.
This first-hand knowledge of what it takes to be a top-tier Major Leaguer might’ve had some appeal to the Padres, given the number of high-profile stars on the roster. Given past rumblings about tumult within the San Diego clubhouse, the Padres might’ve seen Gonzalez as an interesting candidate as perhaps something of both a boss and a peer for San Diego’s players, given that Gonzalez’s playing career only recently wrapped. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller also has a long history with Gonzalez, as the first baseman broke into the big leagues with the Rangers in 2004 just when Preller had been hired to join the Texas front office.
It makes for an interesting what-if within the Padres’ managerial hunt, and it remains to be seen if Gonzalez might seek out further coaching or managerial opportunities in the future, whether with the Padres or another organization. This job had obvious specific appeal to Gonzalez because he was born in San Diego and because he played with the Padres from 2006-10.
With Shildt now hired, attention will turn to the coaching staff. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes that pitching coach Ruben Niebla and bullpen coach Ben Fritz are likely to remain, though Fritz interviewed for the Angels’ pitching coach job that eventually went to Barry Enright. The third base coach and associate manager’s position are both open after the departures of Matt Williams and Ryan Christenson, and it might be interesting to see how whether the “associate manager” role remains at all, or if it was somewhat unique to the division of duties between Christenson and Flaherty.
Shildt has been working for the Padres for the last two years, so it isn’t as if he is an entirely new skipper coming in and wanting to install his own staff. That said, Lin isn’t sure if Flaherty (who is both the bench coach and offensive coordinator) could be back after coming up shy in the managerial search. This uncertainty might also extend to first base coach David Macias, who Lin describes as close with Flaherty and possibly also a candidate to leave if Flaherty isn’t back in 2024. Lin also notes that Shildt isn’t expected to make any coaching hires from the Cardinals, his longtime former team before his arrival in San Diego.
Yankees Showing Interest In Jordan Montgomery
The Yankees seem to be considering a reunion with former rotation stalwart Jordan Montgomery, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. The club has been “looking at” Montgomery as a possible offseason signing, and it appears to be slightly more than just due diligence, as Heyman writes that “the Yankees have been particular about rotation targets.” Previous reports have linked such arms as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Frankie Montas, Yariel Rodriguez, and (before he re-signed with the Phillies) Aaron Nola to the Yankees’ pitching wishlist, and it’s probably safe to assume the Bronx Bombers have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani even though he won’t be able to pitch in 2024.
Obviously Montgomery is a known quantity for the Yankees, having started his pro career in the pinstripes after being drafted in the fourth round in 2014. Debuting in the majors in 2017, Montgomery posted a 3.94 ERA, 22.68% strikeout rate, and 6.93% walk rate over his 502 2/3 innings with New York, establishing himself as a solid and even underrated member of the starting five.
Despite this success, the left-hander was dealt to the Cardinals at the 2022 trade deadline in a move that since become infamous in the Bronx. Harrison Bader came from St. Louis in the one-for-one-swap, and apart from a spectacular power surge during the Yankees’ 2022 playoff run, Bader’s time in New York was a disappointment. The outfielder played in only 98 regular season games due to injuries, and hit .237/.274/.353 over 359 plate appearances before the Yankees put him on waivers this past August.
Meanwhile, Montgomery’s star (and free agent price tag) only continued to rise. He pitched well for St. Louis during the rest of the 2022 season and into 2023, though the Cardinals’ own struggles saw Montgomery again on the move at the deadline, this time to the Rangers. From there, Montgomery became one of the key factors of the Rangers’ World Series run — he posted a 2.79 ERA over 67 2/3 innings in the regular season just to help Texas get into the playoffs, and the lefty then had a 2.90 ERA over 31 postseason frames.
MLBTR ranked Montgomery sixth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a six-year, $150MM contract. Nola received the same projection and landed a seven-year, $172MM deal from Philadelphia, so it is quite possible Montgomery might also beat our prediction even though he is six months older and has a past Tommy John surgery on his record. However, Montgomery wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer due to the midseason trade, so a team that signs him wouldn’t have to surrender any draft picks or international pool money as compensation.
This is undoubtedly of interest to a Yankees team that surpassed the luxury tax last year, and thus would pay the higher penalty of two picks and $1MM of int’l bonus money for signing any qualified free agent. New York’s interest in such players as Nola, Ohtani, or Cody Bellinger indicates that the Bombers are open to signing QO-rejecting free agents, though it’s fair to speculate that the Yankees might be willing to take the plunge for only one such player. For instance, Bellinger might be a bit of a priority since hitting is a greater need for the Yankees, but they could then also look one of many non-QO pitchers, including top-tier names like Yamamoto or Montgomery.
It is fair to speculate whether or not the past history with Montgomery and the Yankees is an obstacle in any negotiations. Naturally GM Brian Cashman would love to have a do-over of the Bader trade, and since his concerns over Montgomery’s viability as a postseason starter have now been firmly proven wrong, what better public mea culpa than a $150MM contract? Montgomery might see it as water under the bridge and be willing to return to complete some unfinished business in the Bronx. On the other hand, it seems possible that Montgomery simply wants to move on from an organization that once considered him expendable, and would prefer to join either a new team altogether or one of his other former clubs in Texas or St. Louis.
Eric Stout Drawing Interest From MLB Clubs
Free agent left-hander Eric Stout is drawing interest from all over the baseball world, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting that the southpaw has interest from clubs in Major League Baseball, Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization.
Stout, 31 in March, has very limited major league experience, having appeared in three games for the Royals in 2018 and 20 games in 2022, split between the Cubs and Pirates. His 24 2/3 innings have resulted in an unsightly earned run average of 7.30, though in a very small sample. His minor league work has naturally been stronger, including an ERA of 4.63 in his Triple-A career.
In 2023, Stout began the year on a minor league deal with the Cubs, then was released and signed another with the Mariners. In early July, he had a 4.20 ERA in Triple-A for the year when he was released to pursue an opportunity with the CTBC Brothers of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan. Stout did well with this change of scenery, making 12 starts for the Brothers with an ERA of 3.28. In his 68 2/3 innings, he struck out 27.9% of batters faced while walking just 4.6%.
Based on that strong showing, it seems Stout may have opened other opportunities for himself. Even if he doesn’t get a deal with a major league club, the NPB and KBO are both considered to be a step up from the CPBL. Moving up the ladder in that sense and continuing to have success would increase his chances of getting an MLB deal down the line.
Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest
Multiple reports have indicated that the demand for starting pitching is huge this offseason and one player that could benefit is right-hander Seth Lugo. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Lugo’s market is extensive and “more than half the league” has checked in on him.
Lugo, 34, spent most of his career in the bullpen with the Mets but reached free agency last winter and drew plenty of interest from clubs who thought he could return to the rotation, as he had done years before. The Padres were ultimately the one to take a chance on Lugo, signing him to a two-year, $15MM deal with an opt-out opportunity midway through.
The experiment worked quite well, as Lugo was ultimately able to throw 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts. He missed about a month due to a calf strain, but apart from that, the larger workload didn’t seem to impact his results. He posted an earned run average of 3.57, striking out 23.2% of batters, limiting walks to a 6% rate and keeping 45.2% of balls in play on the ground.
Now that he has proven himself capable of filling a starting role, his market should be even stronger this offseason than it was a year ago, making it an easy decision for him to opt out and retry free agency. Murray notes that Lugo’s market is vast and that he would not be surprised to see Lugo get a three- or four-year deal. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lugo for a three-year, $42MM pact, which would be $14MM per year.
Given his age, it would be hard for Lugo to go too far beyond that. But that ceiling is perhaps why so many clubs are interested. Aaron Nola already secured himself a seven-year, $172MM deal to return to the Phillies and nine-figure deals should also be available for guys like Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery. The appetite for starting pitching is high but not every club will be able or willing to pay those kinds of prices, leaving them looking to guys like Lugo.
To this point in the offseason, Lugo has been specifically linked to the Tigers but it seems his market is far wider than that. He will likely require a modest average annual value, relative to some of the other free agents, which makes him a speculative fit for a far greater number of clubs. Even mid- or small-market teams need to give out eight-figure contracts from time to time and the widespread demand should help Lugo earn a much greater guarantee than he got a year ago. It was recently reported that nearly half the league had checked in on Yamamoto, but he is widely expected to get $200MM or more. Since Lugo is perhaps looking at getting a quarter of that, it stands to reason that he has even more clubs calling him up.