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Poll: Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?

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The Cubs have made a number of moves to push in towards a return to the postseason in 2025 after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and not winning a playoff game since the club’s NLCS loss to the Dodgers back in 2017. After decent showings the past two seasons, both of which saw the club finish with 83 wins, the Cubs have gotten more aggressive in their efforts to improve. While the additions of Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea to the rotation mix, Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier to the bullpen, as well as Jon Berti and Carson Kelly to the bench are all more or less par-for-the-course moves for the Cubs in recent years, they made a major splash by swinging a trade with the Astros for Kyle Tucker.

The acquisition cost was steep, as they gave up top third base prospect Cam Smith as well as All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and young right-hander Hayden Wesneski, but the acquisition of Tucker was a major upgrade for the lineup relative to Cody Bellinger and figures to provide the Cubs with an impact star who can anchor their lineup. Tucker’s slated to become a free agent after the 2025 season, however, and while youngsters Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are waiting in the wings at Triple-A as potential replacements for Tucker in 2026 it would be an incredibly tall order to expect either youngster to become the sort of to player Tucker has fashioned himself into.

With the club having already given up substantial assets to just land one year of Tucker, the minds of many fans immediately go to an extension. It’s far from uncommon for star players traded just before their final year of team control to promptly extend their stay with that new club, with Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mookie Betts among the most notable star position players to work out long-term extensions shortly after being traded. With that being said, it doesn’t always work out that way as the Yankees found out when they gave up a massive haul for one year of Juan Soto’s services last winter only to watch him depart in free agency back in December.

Soto’s record-shattering $765MM deal won’t be an even remotely realistic target for Tucker, who will crucially head into free agency three years older than this offseason’s star free agent. Even so, that massive contract figures to raise the bar at least somewhat on the price tag for Tucker’s services. After all, both lefty-swinging right fielders are among the most valuable outfielders in the game over the past few years. Tucker’s 19.1 fWAR since the start of the 2021 season trails Soto’s 24.6 figure, but that’s with Tucker having missed half of the 2024 campaign due to a shin injury. Tucker lacks Soto’s generational plate discipline, but the former’s .280/.362/.527 slash line is in at least the same ballpark as Soto’s .279/.423/.520 slash line.

As previously mentioned, Soto’s youth and stronger overall offensive contributions mean his deal will greatly eclipse Tucker’s. Even so, it’s wholly reasonable to think that Tucker could exceed the $330MM guarantee Bryce Harper landed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season and even Aaron Judge’s $360MM guarantee from the 2022-23 offseason. With major market clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants all poised to have a hole in the outfield next winter, it’s not hard to imagine the bidding for Tucker’s services surpassing $350MM or even reaching $400MM so long as he’s healthy and as productive as expected this year. Signing a player to that sort of deal would be completely unprecedented for the Cubs, who have never signed a player for more than the $184MM deal they gave to Jason Heyward prior to the 2016 season, and it seems unlikely that a Tucker extension would come at much of a discount.

While doubling the franchise’s record contract would be a bold move, its one the Cubs should be able to afford. Despite playing in one of the league’s largest markets, Chicago has tended to treat the first luxury tax threshold as something of a hard cap in recent years. That first threshold will sit at $244MM in 2026, when RosterResource projects the club to have just $136MM in guaranteed contracts on the roster. That’s before likely raises for arbitration-eligible players like Justin Steele and a decision on Shota Imanaga’s deal that seems likely to raise the southpaw’s salary, but there should at least theoretically be plenty of room in the budget for a Tucker extension even after considering those factors should the Cubs wish to work one out.

There’s plenty of reasons to wonder if the Cubs would really have the appetite to sign Tucker to a massive contract, however. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, the Cubs appear to be acting quite cautiously when it comes to guaranteed contracts that extend beyond the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2026. At the moment, Imanaga and Dansby Swanson are the only two players the club has guaranteed money to beyond the 2026 campaign. Even that ignores the possibility that Imanaga is allowed to opt out of his deal after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, which will depend on whether or not the Cubs are willing to pick up a series of club options that would extend his stay with the club through the end of the 2028 campaign.

One other potential wrinkle in the situation is Chicago’s pursuit of Tucker’s longtime teammate Alex Bregman. The Cubs have emerged as one of Bregman’s suitors over the course of the past month, and while they’re generally viewed as only interested in adding Bregman on a shorter-term deal (as was the case with their pursuit of Bellinger last winter), it’s at least possible that the club signing Bregman to a deal that guarantees upwards of $30MM annually could leave them uninterested in adding another high-dollar contract like the one Tucker figures to command.

What do MLBTR readers think about the situation? Will the Cubs and Tucker work out an extension before he reaches free agency in November? Or will Tucker follow in the footsteps of Soto and hit the open market? Have your say in the poll below:

Brewers Sign Tyler Alexander

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The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve signed left-hander Tyler Alexander to a one-year, major league contract. He’s a client of SSG Baseball. Fellow southpaw Robert Gasser, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, has been placed on the 60-day injured list to clear space on the 40-man roster.

Alexander will earn a guaranteed $1MM on the contract, MLBTR has learned. He can earn an additional $1MM worth of incentives based on innings pitched. That breakdown is as follows: $50K for 40 innings, $100K for 60 innings, $125K for 80 innings, $150K for 90 innings, $175K for 100 innings, and $200K for both 110 and 120 innings.

Alexander, 30, has pitched in parts of six big league seasons between the Tigers and Rays. He owns a career 4.55 ERA over the life of 449 frames. That includes a 5.10 mark in a career-high 107 2/3 innings with Tampa Bay last year. The Rays non-tendered him back in November rather than pay a projected $2.8MM salary in his final season of club control (hat tip to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

A second-round pick by the Tigers out of TCU back in 2015, Alexander has spent the bulk of his career in a swingman role, oscillating between long relief, occasional spot starts and some bulk work behind openers. He doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 89.6 mph on his four-seamer and 89.7 mph on his sinker in 2024, but he has excellent command and typically manages at least a passable strikeout rate.

Alexander has only walked 5.2% of the 1900 batters he’s faced in the majors. His 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of league-average, but that’s skewed a bit by a career-low 14.3% mark in 2022. He punched out 20% of his batters faced prior to that season and has fanned 21.1% of his opponents since that time. Back in 2020, Alexander made headlines and history by punching out nine consecutive batters against the Reds.

The veteran Alexander gives the Brewers some much needed depth in the rotation and a potential long man in the bullpen. That need was already clear even before today’s revelation that fellow lefty DL Hall will be shut down for several weeks due to a lat strain. Between that and the possibility that Brandon Woodruff, still building back up after major shoulder surgery in October 2023, may not be ready for Opening Day, the Brewers only had four clear-cut members of the rotation: Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale, Nestor Cortes and Tobias Myers.

Alexander likely joins southpaw Aaron Ashby and inexperienced righties Elvin Rodriguez, Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick as competitors for that final rotation spot. It’s always possible that the Brewers could add another more established arm to solidify the group, but Alexander is the first fully guaranteed free agent signing of the winter for GM Matt Arnold & Co. They’ve been up against an extreme payroll crunch and haven’t been able to spend anything to this point. That casts some doubt on the front office’s ability to further augment the group — at least via free agency. The trade market could open other avenues, either in the form of an inexpensive (likely pre-arbitration) starter or perhaps by shedding a contract from the current roster that’d free up some money for a different veteran pursuit.

Mets Re-Sign Pete Alonso

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February 12: The Mets officially announced their deal with Alonso today.

February 5: The stalemate between Pete Alonso and the Mets is over. New York is reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $54MM deal with the star first baseman. Alonso, a client of the Boras Corporation, can opt out after the upcoming season. He receives a $10MM signing bonus and a $20MM salary for 2025. He’ll essentially have a $24MM player option for the ’26 campaign. The deal comes with a $27MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. Alonso chose the two-year deal over a separate offer from the Mets that would have guaranteed $71MM over three seasons.

Alonso, who turned 30 in December, returns to Queens for a seventh season. He has been one of the faces of the franchise since his electrifying debut. Alonso led the majors with 53 home runs en route to a runaway Rookie of the Year win in 2019. That still stands as the all-time rookie home run record. He connected on 16 longballs in the shortened follow-up season and has topped 30 homers in each of the last four years.

That’s a testament not only to his massive power but to his exceptional availability. Alonso has played at least 152 games in each of his five full seasons. He appeared in all 162 contests last year. His only career injured list stint was a minimal stay in 2023 related to a bone bruise in his left wrist. Over the last six seasons, only Marcus Semien has played in more games. Semien and Freddie Freeman are the only hitters with more plate appearances.

On a rate basis, Alonso’s production has dropped in consecutive seasons. He carried a .261/.349/.535 batting line through his first four seasons. Alonso hit another 46 homers in 2023, though he did so with career-low marks in batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.318). His average and OBP rebounded slightly last season, but his power ticked down. Alonso hit .240 with a .329 OBP and a career-low .459 slugging percentage across 695 plate appearances. His 34 homers and 88 runs batted in were each personal worsts over a full schedule.

It was a pedestrian year rather than a bad one. There’s clear value in a player who hits 34 home runs in a relative down season. Still, it was the second straight year in which Alonso’s offensive production was below his early-career level. He’s a .229/.324/.480 hitter since the start of the ’23 campaign. That checks in 21 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+.

By that statistic, Alonso ranks ninth in overall offense among the 35 first basemen with at least 750 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s just behind Cody Bellinger and Josh Naylor and narrowly ahead of LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Arraez and Christian Walker. Alonso’s durability and power gives him a higher offensive ceiling than the rest of that group. Nevertheless, his recent rate metrics have put him alongside those hitters and a clear step down from Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper at the top of the position.

Alonso’s on-field value lies in the bat and his durability. He doesn’t provide baserunning value. His defensive grades at first base are middling. Defensive Runs Saved put him at three runs below par last season and has given him a +2 mark for his career. Statcast had him six runs below average in 2024 and grades him at 18 runs under par overall. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have both valued Alonso around 2-3 wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons.

Of course, Alonso’s value to the Mets extends beyond that production. He’s a homegrown star who is already third on the organization’s home run leaderboard. He is 16 homers shy of David Wright for second place and only needs 27 longballs to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the franchise record. He’ll almost certainly break that record, likely next season.

Alonso was also a key contributor during New York’s run to last year’s NL Championship Series. He saved the season in the Wild Card series with his three-run shot off Devin Williams in the ninth inning of Game 3. That was one of four longballs he hit in October. Alonso slashed .273/.431/.568 across 58 postseason plate appearances. Modern front offices are generally wary about putting much stock in small-sample playoff numbers, though, and Alonso’s unexceptional regular season worked against him in free agency.

The four-time All-Star hit the market envisioning a strong nine-figure deal. His camp presumably sought something in the range of the Matt Olson and Freeman contracts. Olson inked an eight-year, $168MM extension with the Braves; Freeman signed a six-year, $162MM guarantee with the Dodgers, though deferrals dropped the net present value closer to $148MM.

At one point, the Mets valued Alonso similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso made $20.5MM in his last arbitration year, so he’d need to beat $137.5MM over the next six seasons to come out ahead in that decision.

Circumstances have changed significantly since the Mets made that offer. Alonso has switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. The Mets moved on from then-GM Billy Eppler and installed David Stearns at the top of baseball operations. The Brewers rarely invested heavily in first basemen, even via arbitration, during Stearns’ tenure as Milwaukee’s general manager. He’s operating with a much different payroll ceiling under Steve Cohen’s ownership, but this generally hasn’t been his preferred player archetype.

While Stearns and Cohen maintained that they wanted Alonso back, they didn’t want to do so on a long-term deal. They made the obvious decision to put forth a qualifying offer, which the slugger easily rejected. It seems they held off on going beyond three years. As his free agency dragged, Alonso moved off his desire for a long-term deal in talks with the Mets. His camp reportedly pitched a three-year term with multiple opt-out chances. Financial specifics aren’t clear, but the Mets countered with a three-year proposal in the $68-70MM range in the middle of January. After Alonso declined, the Mets signaled they were willing to move on to contingencies.

Whether the Mets actually believed Alonso would walk or were merely signaling that as negotiating leverage, they must come away pleased with the result. The Mets reportedly had two different offers on the table: a three-year, $71MM proposal or the two-year deal which he ultimately accepted. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the three-year term also included an opt-out after the first season and would have broken down as a $27MM salary in year one followed by $22MM salaries if he didn’t opt out. Alonso preferred the extra $3MM in the first season, betting on himself to play well enough to take the out clause next winter.

The Mets keep the term short and retain Alonso on a deal that more closely resembles the two-year contracts signed by Rhys Hoskins ($34MM with Milwaukee) and Joc Pederson ($37MM with Texas) than the Olson or Freeman precedents. It’s an ideal cap to a dangerous lineup. The Mets won the Juan Soto bidding on the record-shattering $765MM deal as the Winter Meetings were getting underway. New York brought back Jesse Winker to serve as their designated hitter, at least against right-handed pitching. That’ll keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez are key holdovers, with Jeff McNeil and one of Tyrone Taylor or Jose Siri rounding out the projected starting nine.

Keeping Vientos at third base blocks the clearest path to playing time for younger infielders Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. The latter two could push McNeil for reps at second base. They all have a minor league option remaining, so the Mets could keep all three at Triple-A Syracuse. They don’t need to make a trade — there’s a good chance Alonso will retest free agency next winter — but it’s possible the surplus makes them more willing to include an upper-level infielder in a package for a top-end starter. New York has built strong rotation depth but arguably needs to increase the rotation’s ceiling to pull ahead of the Phillies and Braves in what’ll be a tough NL East race.

The deal pushes the Mets’ projected payroll to roughly $331MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. The $27MM luxury tax hit brings them to $325MM in CBT obligations. That pushes them firmly beyond the $301MM threshold that marks the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 90% clip for the approximate $3MM to push them to that threshold and at a 110% rate on spending beyond that point. The signing comes with approximately $29.1MM in taxes. They’ll pay around $59MM this season to keep Alonso. New York also relinquishes the right to the compensatory draft choice that they would have received had he signed elsewhere after declining the qualifying offer. That pick would have come after the fourth round.

Alonso secures a strong one-year salary with an eye towards a more lucrative free agent trip next winter. Players cannot receive a QO more than once in their career, so he’d hit the market without draft compensation if he opts out. He’d still come out ahead of that declined extension offer if he secures a deal worth more than $107.5MM over the ensuing five seasons. That’s by no means a guarantee, as he’ll be working against the aging curve, but it’s the kind of risk-reward play that a lot of free agents take if they don’t find their ideal long-term deal on their first free agent try.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets were re-signing Alonso. Jeff Passan of ESPN had the two-year, $54MM guarantee and the $30MM in year one. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the signing bonus and that Alonso declined a three-year term, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported had a $71MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Imagn.

DL Hall Shut Down For Several Weeks With Lat Strain

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As pitchers and catchers report to spring training, news is filtering out about injuries. Brewers manager Pat Murphy passed along a discouraging update about left-hander DL Hall, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The lefty has a lat strain and is going to be shut down for about the next two weeks before being re-evaluated.

That’s an uncertain path forward but it seems distinctly possible that Hall won’t be ready by Opening Day. Even if he gets some good news after this shutdown period, he will be weeks behind his fellow pitchers and might then be brought along slowly, if he and the club decide to proceed cautiously.

Murphy also recently said that Brandon Woodruff probably won’t be ready by Opening Day, as he works his way back from a shoulder surgery that wiped out his entire 2024 season. Robert Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will miss at least the first half of the 2025 season.

When discussing the Woodruff situation, Murphy identified Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Nestor Cortes and Aaron Civale as the club’s likely front four in the rotation. MLBTR recently took a detailed look at the club’s rotation option behind those four, with Hall being one of the top candidates to fill a role in the short term.

If Hall ends up needing to miss time, Aaron Ashby could get an Opening Day nod, though there are some question marks there. Arthroscopic shoulder surgery wiped out his 2023 season. He returned last year but the results were mixed. In Triple-A, he worked mostly as a starter but didn’t fare well. He had an 8.24 ERA at the end of July when the club moved him to the bullpen. He had better results there, including a 1.37 ERA in 19 2/3 major league innings to finish the year. The club still wants to give him another chance to start but there’s plenty of uncertainty after his uneven 2024 and lost 2023.

He’ll have some competition, as Logan Henderson, Carlos Rodríguez, Chad Patrick and Elvin Rodríguez are also on the 40-man roster. However, Henderson and Patrick haven’t made their major league debuts yet, while the two Rodríguezes have less than 50 big league innings between them. Jacob Misiorowski is not on the roster but is one of the top prospects in baseball and has reached Triple-A. However, he walked 14.4% of batters he faced last year and still hasn’t hit 100 innings in a season.

Even if Hall were healthy, he would come with his own question marks. A knee sprain limited him to 84 innings last year, between the majors and minors. With the Orioles in 2022 and 2023, he was moved between the rotation and bullpen, as well as being sent to the minors and back. His workload stayed beneath 100 innings in each of those seasons as well.

As a former top 100 prospect, Hall would ideally take a step forward this year, both in terms of the quality and quantity of his results. He certainly still could, but this lat strain isn’t an ideal start to a key season for him. He is down to one option year and would be out of options going into 2026 if he gets sent to the minors for 20 days this year.

Adding an external arm to the mix could be an option but it doesn’t seem as though the Brewers are operating with a ton of payroll flexibility. RosterResource estimates them for a $116MM payroll this year. That’s already well beyond the $104MM figure they ran on Opening Day last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The only major league deals they’ve given out this winter have been for inexperienced arms like Elvin Rodríguez and Grant Wolfram.

Pitchers like Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana and others are still available on the open market. MLBTR recently took a look at some clubs that made sense for the remaining free agent pitchers, highlighting the Brewers even before this news about Hall’s setback, though the budgetary concerns were mentioned as an obstacle. Moving Rhys Hoskins and the $22MM he’s still owed would probably help, though that will be tough after he hit .214/.303/.419 for a wRC+ of 100 last year.

Mariners Re-Sign Jhonathan Diaz To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have re-signed lefty Jhonathan Diaz to a minor league contract, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. He’s already in camp and will be a non-roster invitee this spring.

Diaz was designated for assignment earlier this month. The M’s ultimately placed him on waivers, and the southpaw rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency upon going unclaimed. He’s now back with the Mariners to vie for a job in camp or, likelier, to head to Triple-A Tacoma as a depth option early in the event of injuries in the big league rotation.

The 28-year-old Diaz has pitched in parts of four big league seasons — from 2021-23 with the Angels and with the Mariners in 2024. He’s totaled 45 MLB frames and carries a pedestrian 4.80 earned run average in that time. The soft-tosser has fanned just 15% of his big league opponents against an unsightly 12.6% walk rate, though his 45.7% ground-ball rate and 0.80 HR/9 mark are both solid.

While the Mariners didn’t need to lean on in-house rotation depth much in 2024 thanks to good health from Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and (to a lesser extent) Bryan Woo, Diaz still provided them a decent option in the upper minors. He started 22 games in Triple-A Tacoma and tallied 117 2/3 innings with a 4.36 ERA there. Diaz’s strikeout and walk rates in the majors have been ugly, but he whiffed 22.9% of his opponents in Tacoma last year against a 9.9% walk rate. That’s a roughly average strikeout rate and a still worse-than-average walk rate, but both are a far sight better than his MLB rates.

Diaz probably won’t be the first man up in the event of a rotation injury. Former No. 6 overall pick Emerson Hancock was the most frequently called upon reserve last year, and Seattle added righty Blas Castano to the 40-man roster earlier this winter. Top prospect Logan Evans and journeyman Casey Lawrence are also non-roster invitees this spring and could land in the Tacoma rotation to begin the year. Diaz will be in the mix though, especially if the Mariners at any point find themselves in need of multiple starters.

Tigers Trade Mason Englert To Rays

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The Rays announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired righty Mason Englert from the Tigers in exchange for minor league lefty Drew Sommers. Tampa Bay opened a 40-man roster spot by transferring southpaw Nate Lavender to the 60-day IL. Englert was designated for assignment in Detroit last week.

Englert, 25, was with the Tigers for the past two years. A Rule 5 pick from the Rangers, he stuck on the roster through the 2023 season. Once the Tigers had full control over his rights for 2024, he was shuttled between Triple-A and the majors. Over those two campaigns, he tossed 77 2/3 innings for Detroit, allowing 5.45 earned runs per nine. His 16.5% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.4% clip.

Those numbers aren’t mind-blowing, but Englert was better in the minors last year. He tossed 49 2/3 innings on the farm over 32 appearances with a 3.08 ERA, 33% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Prior to his Rule 5 selection, he tossed 199 1/3 minor league innings over 2021 and 2022 with a 3.93 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate.

Englert is still fairly young and has a couple of options years remaining. The major league results haven’t been there yet but the minor league numbers seem to be intriguing enough that the Rays have brought him aboard. As a club that rotates pitchers through the roster fairly frequently, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Englert moves between Triple-A and the majors throughout the coming season.

Lavender, 25, was just taken in the most recent Rule 5 draft. He had Tommy John surgery in May and likely won’t be able to return until the second half. Today’s transfer officially rules him out of the first two months of the campaign.

Though the Tigers had to bump Englert off the roster, they are at least getting something in return. Sommers, 24, was an 11th-round selection of the Rays in 2022. In 2023, he tossed 43 Single-A innings with a 2.72 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 53.3% ground ball rate. Last year, he got bumped up to High-A and tossed 54 innings with an ERA of 4.00, 27.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and massive 67.8% ground ball rate. He’s not considered a top prospect but will give the Tigers an intriguing lefty relief option to plug into their system.

White Sox Sign Michael A. Taylor

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February 12: The Sox officially announced their signing of Taylor today. Right-hander Jesse Scholtens was transferred to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March of last year. Based on this transfer, it seems the Sox aren’t expecting him back in the first two months of the season.

February 11: The White Sox and outfielder Michael A. Taylor are in agreement on a deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The ALIGND Sports Agency client gets a $1.95MM guarantee on a one-year deal with performance bonuses, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The Sox have a full 40-man roster and will need to open a spot.

Taylor, 34 in March, has long been one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. From 2015 to 2024, he has 78 Defensive Runs Saved in center. That tally puts him third in the majors for that stretch, though the two guys ahead of him are now retired: Kevin Kiermaier and Lorenzo Cain. His 62 Outs Above Average at the position put him sixth in the league.

Offensively, he’s been more mercurial. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t take many walks. He does have enough pop in his bat to occasionally overcome those deficiencies somewhat, with four seasons of double-digit homer tallies, though he also remains vulnerable to deep troughs in his production.

The last two seasons highlight the up-and-down nature of his work at the plate. With the Twins in 2023, he struck out 33.5% of the time and only walked at a 6.7% clip but did park the ball over the fence 21 times. That led to a .220/.278/.442 batting line and 95 wRC+. That means he was still 5% below league average on the whole, but thanks to his defense and 13 stolen bases, FanGraphs considered him to be worth two wins above replacement.

He signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Pirates in 2024 and things went downhill. His strikeout and walk rates held fairly steady at 35% and 7.7% respectively, but he hit only five home runs and produced a dismal line of .193/.253/.290.

After last year’s historically poor season, the White Sox have been giving deals to various veteran players to pad out their inexperienced roster. That includes adding Mike Tauchman and Austin Slater to an outfield that already included Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Benintendi. Elsewhere on the roster, they’ve signed Josh Rojas, Martin Perez and Bryse Wilson.

Going into the season, Robert will be the everyday center fielder, at least until a trade comes together. He had an excellent season in 2023 but scuffled through an injury-marred 2024. All reporting from this winter has indicated the Sox have set a high price on Robert. As opposed to selling low, they would rather let him prove his health and effectiveness in the early parts of 2025 before hopefully striking a deal at the right time.

They would also surely love to flip Benintendi and the three years left on his deal, though he’s coming off two rough seasons. He did have a strong second half in 2024, so perhaps there’s some hope of him getting back on track. Like Robert, the club should run him out there for regular playing time in the hopes that he plays well and builds some trade value.

Tauchman and Slater could perhaps form a platoon in another corner. Slater hits right-handed and has been better against lefties in his career. Tauchman has fairly neutral splits but does hit left-handed.

Taylor seems likely to be on the bench in a fourth outfielder role, though he does give the club a bit of insurance in the event Robert gets bitten by the injury bug again. Or if some club meets their lofty asking price and gets a trade over the line. Until that happens, he can serve as a defensive replacement or pinch runner from time to time. The club could also put Robert in the designated hitter slot from time to time as a way of easing his workload, putting Taylor in center.

Oscar Colás and Dominic Fletcher are also on the roster but they have options and could be in Triple-A until they either earn their way into bigger roles or injuries opening up opportunities. Players like Corey Julks and Zach DeLoach have been bumped off the roster this winter but are still around in non-roster roles.

Marlins Sign Cal Quantrill

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The Marlins announced that they have signed right-hander Cal Quantrill to a one-year deal. Left-hander Braxton Garrett has been transferred to the 60-day injured list as the corresponding move. Quantrill’s deal reportedly guarantees him $3.5MM, though the Excel Sports Management client can potentially earn another $500K via incentives.

Quantrill, 30, just finished a season pitching for the Rockies. After a few years pitching for the Guardians, he was flipped to Colorado and had to navigate the challenge of pitching at altitude in 2024. Given the conditions, the results were passable. He made 29 starts and logged 148 1/3 innings, allowing 4.98 earned runs per nine. His 16.8% strikeout rate was subpar but pretty normal for him. His 10.5% walk rate was a bit higher than average while his 44.4% ground ball rate was right around par.

The Rockies could have brought Quantrill back for 2025, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $9MM salary, but they opted to non-tender him instead. That sent him to free agency without being exposed to waivers, which made him available to work out this deal with the Marlins.

He has had some better numbers in the past. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons with Cleveland, he worked a swing role, making 54 starts and 18 relief appearances. Over those campaigns, he posted a 3.16 ERA with an 18% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 42.6% ground ball rate. He benefited from a .274 batting average on balls in play and 77.9% strand rate in that time, which were both on the lucky side. His 4.10 FIP and 4.50 SIERA over that span were perhaps better reflections of his performance but still solid numbers for a back-end starter or swingman.

In 2023, things regressed for him a bit. He spent some time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation and was only able to make 19 starts. He had a 5.24 ERA and was designated for assignment after the season, which led to his trade to Colorado.

The Marlins are likely looking for Quantrill to serve as a steadying force in a rotation that has talent but is in flux. With the club rebuilding, they have had a strong willingness to deal players over the past year. In the rotation, they traded Trevor Rogers to the Orioles at last year’s deadline and then Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies in this offseason. Garrett is also going to miss the 2025 season while recovering from surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. Eury Pérez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn’t slated to return until around the All-Star break.

As of now, the on-paper rotation consists of Sandy Alcántara, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer, with plenty of uncertainty in those remaining options. Alcántara is returning after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2024 campaign. Even if he’s successful in coming back healthy, he will likely be in trade rumors this summer. Weathers had some good numbers last year but spent a decent chunk of time on the IL due to a finger strain and still hasn’t thrown 100 innings in an MLB season. Cabrera has also never hit the 100-inning plateau and has walked 13.3% of opponents in his career. He’s also been in plenty of trade rumors and could be flipped if he shows some hints of improvement. Meyer missed the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and came back last year to make 11 big league starts with a 5.68 ERA.

The Fish have some depth options like Valente Bellozo, Adam Mazur and Connor Gillispie, but those guys all have options. Quantrill can take a rotation spot and bump those guys down to the Triple-A rotation, at least until an injury or a trade opens up an opportunity. If Quantrill pitches well, he’ll likely end up on the trade block himself.

RosterResource currently pegs the Marlins for a competitive balance number of just over $83MM, which should jump to around $86-87MM once Quantrill’s deal is factored in. It has been reported that they may need to get up to $105MM to avoid being subject to a grievance from the MLBPA, in relation to the use of their revenue-sharing funds. If the club plans to get to that number, then perhaps they will look to make further upgrades to their roster in the coming weeks.

 Alden González of ESPN reported that the two sides were in agreement prior to the official announcement. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported the $3.5MM guarantee. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that Quantrill can earn as much as $4MM on the deal, suggesting that there are potential incentives worth $500K.

Cardinals Win Arbitration Hearing Versus Brendan Donovan, Lose Versus Lars Nootbaar

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The Cardinals have now heard rulings on a pair of arbitration cases. Per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, they won their hearing against utilityman Brendan Donovan but lost their hearing against outfielder Lars Nootbaar. Donovan will earn the $2.85MM figure submitted by the team last month rather than the $3.3MM submitted by his camp. Nootbaar, meanwhile, will earn the $2.95MM sum he submitted rather than the $2.45MM figure presented by the team.

Donovan, 28, has exactly three years of MLB service and was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. He’s combined to hit .280/.364/.407 in 1491 plate appearances since his 2022 debut, smacking 30 homers, 65 doubles and five triples along the way. He’s shown incremental power increases in each of the past two seasons — last year’s 14 round-trippers were a career-high — but has done so at the expense of some walks. He drew free passes at a hearty 12.8% clip in 2022 but drew a walk in a below-average 7.2% of last season’s 652 trips to the plate.

Beyond his keen bat-to-ball skills and knack for getting on base, Donovan’s value is largely tied to his defensive versatility. The term “super utility” gets thrown around a lot, but Donovan genuinely exemplifies that moniker. He’s played all four infield positions and both outfield corners in his MLB career (albeit only 65 innings at short and 150 innings at first base). Defensive metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved tend to agree that he’s at least passable, if not a bona fide plus defender at most spots on the diamond (with third base being his best, metrics-wise). The industry largely agrees. Donovan took home a Gold Glove for his utility work back in 2022.

Nootbaar, 27, is also in his first trip through arbitration. He’ll come out marginally ahead of Donovan, perhaps in part a reflection of his lower asking price and superior totals in home runs (45 to 30), games played (392 to 374) and baserunning value (24-for-30 in steals to 12-for-21) in the early portions of their respective careers. In parts of four MLB seasons, Nootbaar is a .246/.348/.425 hitter.

Nootbaar is ticketed for regular work in the outfield this year, though his exact placement could depend on the trade status of Nolan Arenado. If the Cardinals succeed in moving Arenado, they can deploy Nolan Gorman regularly at third base and Donovan at second base. That’d open left field for Nootbaar. If Arenado stays in place, Gorman would probably see more time at second base, pushing Donovan to left field with more regularity. That’d likely lead to additional time in center for Nootbaar, barring injuries to Donovan or right fielder Jordan Walker.

Both Donovan and Nootbaar are controlled for an additional two seasons. They’ll be up for free agency in the 2027-28 offseason. With the Cardinals eyeing some kind of reset and refocus on player development, either could feasibly emerge as a summer trade candidate, but St. Louis has been staunchly against moving affordable/controllable players of this ilk. In fact, despite their proclamation of wanting to open more time for younger players, they haven’t parted with a single veteran this offseason. They also haven’t added any new pieces. While the front office has doggedly focused on trying to find an Arenado trade, there’s been no fruit in those negotiations.

Royals’ James McArthur Recovering From Elbow Surgery

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Royals right-hander James McArthur underwent surgery to repair a fractured olecranon in his right elbow and is behind schedule this spring, per Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star. McArthur, who had two screws installed in his pitching elbow, is just now beginning to throw. It’s not clear exactly when McArthur had the procedure, but he ended the 2024 season on the shelf with an elbow issue. The fact that he’s even cleared for light throwing at this stage indicates the procedure took place a fair bit ago.

The 28-year-old McArthur looked like a breakout candidate late in the 2023 season. Acquired in a minor trade after being designated for assignment in Philadelphia, McArthur erupted as one of the most dominant relievers in the sport in September of 2023. An out-of-nowhere but eye-popping run of 16 1/3 shutout innings with just five hits allowed, no walks and 19 punchouts thrust McArthur into the Royals’ late-inning mix and positioned him as the team’s closer early in 2024. That brilliant finish coincided with some changes to his pitch selection; after being optioned to Triple-A in mid-August, McArthur returned in September throwing far fewer sinkers but far more sliders and curveballs.

McArthur had a rough start in 2024, yielding four runs in his first three innings before finding his groove. He pitched to a 3.35 ERA from that point through the remainder of the first half and carried an overall 3.99 earned run average into the All-Star break. His strikeout rate wasn’t close to the prior year, but McArthur was boasting elite command and a massive 57% grounder rate. He looked very much like a nice diamond-in-the-rough find by the Kansas City front office.

Perhaps that’ll still prove to be the case long term, but McArthur stumbled immediately out of the gate in the second half, serving up nine runs (eight earned) in his first three appearances. The rest of his season proved to be a struggle. McArthur pitched to a 6.87 ERA in his final 18 1/3 innings. His walk rate spiked from 4.4% in the first half to 8% in the second half. After averaging 95 mph on his sinker through the break, McArthur’s velocity began to fade. He only topped a 95 mph average on that sinker in one of his final eight appearances. His grounder rate dipped from 57% to 50%, and he didn’t pitch again after Sept. 16.

The season-ending IL placement and subsequent offseason surgery rather emphatically prove that McArthur was pitching at less than 100% down the stretch. The hope for the Royals, clearly, will be that McArthur’s late downturn was a symptom of his elbow troubles. From the point of that repertoire change in late ’23 through the All-Star break in ’24, McArthur totaled 54 2/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA, 23% strikeout rate, 3.3% walk rate and 54.9% grounder rate. If he can come even close to those levels again, he’ll be a vital part of the Royals’ late-inning attack not only in 2025 but for several years to come. McArthur is under club control through 2029 and won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, when he’ll be a Super Two player.

For now, the Royals’ bullpen will be headlined by free agent signing Carlos Estevez and 2024 deadline acquisitions Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey. That’s a formidable high-leverage trio in its own right, and the September-through-July version of McArthur would only further strengthen the group for second-year skipper Matt Quatraro.

Also worth noting, per Thompson, is that righty Alec Marsh is a bit behind schedule after battling some shoulder tightness during his offseason program. He’s seemingly past that issue now, as he’s progressed into a throwing program, but he’s not quite where he would be with a normal offseason. Health permitting, Marsh would be a part of a competition for the fifth rotation spot behind Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. Marsh, Kris Bubic and Kyle Wright are presumably all in that mix. Bubic arguably should’ve been considered the favorite even before this news, but Marsh’s delay in facing hitters (while Wright hasn’t pitched since 2023 due to shoulder surgery) only strengthen Bubic’s case.

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