Rockies, Dinelson Lamet Avoid Arbitration
November 17: Lamet will make $5MM in 2023, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
November 16: The Rockies announced that they have agreed to terms on a one-year deal with right-hander Dinelson Lamet, avoiding arbitration. The terms have not yet been revealed but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of $4.8MM.
Lamet, 30, has been on a bit of a roller coaster in the past few years. In the shortened 2020 season, he seemingly broke out with an excellent campaign with the Padres. He made 12 starts and threw 69 innings, posting a 2.09 ERA along with a 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate.
Unfortunately, the next two years saw him fall from those incredible heights. A forearm issue sent him to the injured list twice in 2021, limiting him to just 47 innings on the year, which included a move to the bullpen. The Padres kept him as a reliever going into 2022, but Lamet didn’t take to the new role. He posted a 9.49 ERA over 12 1/3 innings before getting flipped to the Brewers as part of the Josh Hader trade.
Lamet never pitched for the Brewers, as they designated him for assignment just two days after acquiring him. David Stearns, who was Milwaukee’s president of baseball operations at the time, said that Lamet “was included in the trade to help balance out the deal” but that “as subsequent transactions played out, the roster fit became a little tougher.” It’s possible that the Brewers just took on Lamet to offset some salary for the Padres or that their subsequent acquisitions of Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Bush squeezed him out of their plans. Either way, the Rockies were the beneficiary as they claimed him off waivers.
Lamet had a much stronger second half after joining the Rockies. He got into 19 games for them and threw 20 innings, posting a 4.05 ERA in that time. His strikeout rate jumped to 33.3% after being at 25.8% with San Diego. He also dropped his walk rate from 14.5% to 11.5%.
The Rockies often struggle to attract pitchers to join their club, given the hitter-friendly nature of their home ballpark. By claiming Lamet off waivers, they’ve grabbed a guy who had a dominant 2020 season and, though he seemed lost for a while, finished 2022 on a strong note. If he can recapture his past form, he could be a valuable piece for the club.
A’s Claim Brent Rooker
The Athletics announced Thursday that they’ve claimed outfielder/first baseman Brent Rooker off waivers from the Royals. Kansas City designated Rooker for assignment earlier in the week.
Rooker, 28, was the No. 35 overall draft pick by the division-rival Twins back in 2017. The hope was that the former Mississippi State slugger could be a quick-the-Majors source of pop for the Twins, and that proved to be partially true. Rooker mashed his way through the minor leagues, reaching Triple-A by the 2019 season and hitting .281/.398/.535 through 274 plate appearances there. Minnesota gave him a brief big league look during the shortened 2020 season, and Rooker responded with a 6-for-19 showing, including a homer and a pair of doubles.
Unfortunately, that brief production didn’t carry over into a larger sample in 2021. Rooker remained productive in Triple-A (.245/.367/.564, 20 homers in 62 games) but managed only a .201/.291/.397 slash with an ugly 32.9% strikeout rate in 213 plate appearances at the MLB level in 2021. The Twins sent Rooker to San Diego alongside Taylor Rogers in the trade that brought Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan to Minnesota, and Rooker again thrived in Triple-A while struggling in limited MLB action.
Overall, Rooker is a .200/.289/.379 hitter in 270 Major League plate appearances but a .274/.387/.590 hitter in 906 Triple-A plate appearances. While he’s seen time both in left field and at first base in his career, however, scouting reports at the time of the draft called it a stretch for him to ever be a full-time outfielder, and that’s just how things have played out so far. In just 386 2/3 innings in the outfield corners, Rooker has posted -11 Defensive Runs Saved, -7 Outs Above Average and a -4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. Ultimately, if he’s to solidify himself in the big leagues, his bat will need to carry the day, and he’ll likely need to move to either first base or designated hitter.
Rooker has one minor league option year remaining, so the A’s will be able to shuttle him between Oakland and Triple-A Las Vegas in 2022 — assuming he lasts the whole offseason on the 40-man roster. Oakland is as good a landing spot as Rooker could have hoped for, given that the rebuilding A’s only have two set outfielders in the out-of-options Cristian Pache and Ramon Laureano — the latter of whom could be traded. Lefty-swinging Seth Brown will rotate between the outfield corners, first base and DH, but there’s clearly playing time available for Rooker if he can hit his way into a roster spot next spring.
Mozeliak: Cardinals Seeking Catching Help, Left-Handed Bat
The Cardinals bid farewell to a pair of franchise icons at season’s end, as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially closed the books on their playing career. For the first time in nearly two decades, St. Louis enters an offseason unsure of who’ll receive the bulk of the playing time behind the dish the following season. While the Cardinals have in-house options in Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera, president of baseball operations made clear in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s actively exploring the market for catching upgrades.
“Clearly, with Yadi retiring, we know we need to upgrade at catching — especially when you think about the day-to-day demands of that role,” said Mozeliak. “That’s something that we’re going to look at, whether it’s trade or free agency.”
Asked about interest in top catcher Willson Contreras, Mozeliak declined to publicly comment on the free agent’s potential market, calling that a “dangerous game” and instead simply doubled down on interest in catching help: “We are in the catching market.”
Contreras, a longtime division rival, is this year’s top free-agent catcher, with former Red Sox and Astros backstop Christian Vazquez the clear No. 2 option. They’re not the only names available, of course, but they’re the two clear-cut starting catchers coming off strong 2022 campaigns. Rebound candidates include Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino and Tucker Barnhart, all of whom had down 2022 seasons but were quite recently considered quality starting options behind the dish.
As Mozeliak alluded to, the trade market should produce a handful of alternatives. Oakland’s Sean Murphy will be available, though the asking price for three years of his services will be understandably steep. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a trio of starting-caliber catchers on the roster in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and top prospect Gabriel Moreno. Jansen, with two years of remaining club control to Kirk’s five and Moreno’s six, is generally seen as the likeliest of the group to move.
Whatever path the Cards take, an addition at catcher feels like a foregone conclusion. Knizner, 27, has served as the primary backup to Molina in recent seasons and managed only a .204/.292/.288 slash through 536 big league plate appearances. Optimists might suggest that he’d improve with more consistent playing time than he received Molina and his iron-man approach to catching, but Knizner has also drawn sub-par defensive marks along the way. The 22-year-old Herrera went 2-for-18 in his MLB debut this year but turned in a solid .268/.374/.396 line in Triple-A. Still, a team hoping to vie for a return to the postseason could use more certainty behind the dish, perhaps easing the well-regarded Herrera into a larger opportunity — as opposed to simply throwing him into a trial-by-fire run at the starting job.
Catching help isn’t all that’s on the menu this winter for Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office, though. Mozeliak didn’t specify a position but did voice hope of adding a left-handed bat to help balance out his lineup. Given that most of the available catching options are right-handed bats — Narvaez and the switch-hitting Barnhart being the exceptions — it’s likely the Cards will have to make an additional move to achieve that goal.
“When you look at our offense, trying to find something from the left side to try to help bolster our day-to-day lineup is something we think we could benefit from,” said Mozeliak. “…”When you think about our club from the left side, we could just use a little extra pop. Some of our better hitters are right-handed, and so we’re just looking for more balance in our lineup.
The Cards aren’t totally devoid of left-handed bats but do skew more toward the right side of the dish — particularly when it comes to the team’s power hitters. Lars Nootbaar showed some impressive power from the left side of the dish and likely secured himself a spot in the 2023 outfield, but he’s the main source of left-handed pop the Cardinals have at the moment. Rookie of the Year finalist Brendan Donovan had an outstanding all-around season but hit just five homers and posted a lowly .097 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Switch-hitters Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson were both vastly better hitters from the right side of the plate than the left. Twenty-two-year-old Nolan Gorman certainly has power from the left side of the plate but struggled increasingly as his rookie season wore on.
Last offseason’s signing of Corey Dickerson seemed intended to provide some help in this space, and while Dickerson rebounded from an awful start to finish with a roughly league-average batting line, he’s again a free agent and the Cardinals are surely hoping for more than average output from whoever is acquired to fill this role. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with productive left-handed hitters who could be plugged into the St. Louis lineup, though veterans like Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto and old friend Matt Carpenter are all available. The former two will both be returning from shoulder surgery, whereas the latter enjoyed an otherworldly rebound with the Yankees before suffering a fractured foot that derailed his comeback effort.
As is so often heard from baseball operations leaders, Mozeliak also touched on the adage that a team can never have too much pitching, noting that “you’re always just one injury away from being in a tough spot.” While he didn’t characterize the Cardinals’ search for rotation depth as quite the same level of priority as a catcher and left-handed bat, Mozeliak suggested that the Cardinals will “keep the pulse” of the starting pitching market as the offseason progresses.
With Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals have at least six rotation options — Mozeliak also listed Drew VerHagen as a potential depth option there — but bolstering that group with a swingman or some veterans on minor league deals could well be on the eventual to-do list.
Astros To Re-Sign Rafael Montero
November 17: Montero’s contract will see him earn $11.5MM in all three years, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.
November 12: Rafael Montero and the Astros are in agreement on a three-year, $34.5MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Montero is the third elite reliever to fall off the board early, after the Padres re-signed Robert Suarez and the Mets held on to Edwin Diaz.
It’s a remarkable deal considering Montero has amassed just 0.1 bWAR over his career and had a 6.39 ERA just in 2021, but speaks to how good he’s looked since landing in Houston, and the early value teams are placing on high-end relief pitching.
Montero, 32, tossed 68 1/3 innings out of Houston’s pen this year in addition to six innings thrown late last year after coming over from Seattle, posting a 2.18 ERA in that time with a 26.8% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. He’d posted an ugly 7.27 ERA (albeit with decent peripherals) in Seattle last year, before the Astros acquired him as part of the Kendall Graveman deal. In Houston, he’s leaned more heavily on his fastball, and cut back on his sinker and slider usage. Hitters have found it incredibly difficult to square up his pitches, and he gave up just three home runs all year (and one more in the playoffs) and ranked in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity.
It’s certainly worth nothing that this isn’t the first time Montero has had a bit of success, only to crash not long after. The Rangers inked him to a minor league deal in 2019 after four unsuccessful years with the Mets that concluded with Tommy John surgery prior to the ’18 campaign. He turned into a valuable member of the Rangers bullpen that year, throwing 29 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He regressed a bit in 2020, but the Rangers were still able to flip him to the Mariners for a couple of prospects – Andres Mesa and Jose Corniell – prior to the 2021 campaign, but things would unravel for him in Seattle.
While it’s easy to look at that 2019 season with the Rangers and draw similarities to his past season with the Astros in that it’s an isolated strong season amongst a wider portfolio of poor output, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’s turned a corner for good. For instance, in 2019 his peripherals were far less impressive than his actual output, and it was over a much smaller sample size (29 innings against 74 1/3 in Houston). Ultimately though, dishing out any sort of multi-year free agency deal to relievers comes with a large degree of risk, and given how tough relievers’ future performance is to predict, there’s no guarantees Montero performs like he did in 2022 over the life of this deal.
This deal locks up a key contributor from their World Series winning team, but it’s curious to see a major deal like this done one day after the team moved on from their general manager. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus are running the day-to-day operations for the Astros after the departure of James Click, although Rome adds that that doesn’t necessarily mean those two were responsible for the Montero deal.
Houston’s projected payroll now sits at $164MM per RosterResource, about $15MM shy of their 2022 mark. There’s every chance they bring back Justin Verlander, while they could seek additions at center field, catcher and first base, so there’s a strong possibility their payroll comfortably eclipses the $179MM mark from 2022.
Their bullpen was one of the strengths of their championship roster this past season, and with the likes of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris and the now-returning Montero it’s shaping up to be one of the best in baseball again.
It also bodes well for other top relievers on the market. Montero’s $34.5MM deal follows on from Suarez’ five-year, $46MM contract with the Padres and Diaz’s record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets. On the whole, relievers are being paid handsomely to kick off free agency this year, and the agents of pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Kenley Jansen will surely be pointing teams to these deals as price points when going into negotiations.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
MLB Awards 2024 All-Star Game To Texas Rangers
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred announced today that the Texas Rangers will host the 2024 All-Star festivities. The 94th “midsummer classic” will be held July 16th of that year.
This will be the second time the Rangers have played host to the game, though it will be the first at Globe Life Field, which opened in 2020. The only other time the club hosted was in 1995, at the Ballpark in Arlington.
“Major League Baseball is pleased to award the 2024 All-Star Game to the Rangers and the Cities of Arlington and Fort Worth, which presented a robust bid for All-Star Week,” Manfred says in the statement. “The Rangers stepped up under difficult circumstances and Globe Life Field served as terrific host for the 2020 Postseason, including the World Series. We are excited to once again feature Baseball’s newest ballpark on a global stage next summer.”
The next two All-Star games will be hosted by AL West teams, since the Seattle Mariners are hosting the 2023 contest. The 2025 host has not yet been announced, but 2026 will be in Philadelphia to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
Marlins Hire Jeff Conine As Special Assistant
The Marlins are bringing Jeff Conine back to the organization, according to Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Conine will work as a special assistant to owner Bruce Sherman.
Conine, 56, had a 17-year MLB career as a player, with most of that time spent as a Marlin. He was actually an original member of the franchise, having been selected in the expansion draft in 1992. He stayed with the club through 1997, helping them win their first World Series title in the last year of that stretch. After some time with the Royals and Orioles, he came back to Miami in 2003, helping them win their second title, and stayed through 2005. He then bounced around for a few more seasons before signing a one-day contract with the Marlins in March of 2008 and then retired.
In his post-playing days, Conine has worked as a special assistant to the club but he departed the organization in 2017. When Jeffrey Loria sold the team to a group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Conine and several other special assistants were fired but then confusingly approached by Jeter with new job offers. At that time, Conine turned down that offer and explained that he was offered a role with less responsibility than he previously held. It’s unknown exactly what kind of role he will be stepping into now but “Mr. Marlin” has nonetheless returned to the organization with which he’s synonymous. He will now have the same employer as his son Griffin Conine, who was traded from the Blue Jays to the Marlins in 2020.
Padres Re-Sign Robert Suarez
Nov. 17: The Padres formally announced a five-year deal for Suarez, which indeed includes an opt-out after the 2025 season.
Nov. 12: The Padres have made a massive strike to keep one of their top free agents. San Diego is reportedly in agreement with reliever Robert Suarez on a five-year, $46MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after the 2025 campaign. Suarez, a Don Nomura client, had declined a $5MM player option earlier this week.
That was a formality, as he was always likely to land a significant multi-year pact on the open market. Just as the time came for him to potentially speak with other teams, he and the Padres pushed a new deal across the finish line.
The new contract will reportedly pay Suarez $10MM in each of the next three seasons. If he were to opt out after 2025, he’d be leaving $16MM on the table, which breaks down as $8MM salaries in each of the 2026 and 2027 campaigns. There is also some notable annual bonus money available related to games finished, and those incentives kick in whenever Suarez finishes at least 25 games in a season. The bonuses max out at $3MM if he reaches 55 games finished.
Suarez had never played in the majors before this year. The Venezuela native had spent five seasons at Japan’s highest level, working late innings for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. The Friars signed him to a two-year deal last winter that allowed him to opt out after the 2022 season, taking a shot on a live arm with a history of success in Japan. The gamble his stuff would play against big league hitters paid off in spades, as he emerged as one of manager Bob Melvin’s top late-inning weapons.
During his first MLB appearance, Suarez walked two batters and hit a third. He failed to record an out and all three runners came around to score. It was a nightmarish debut, but the 31-year-old bounced back in a huge way. From the second day of the season onward, he pitched to a 1.70 ERA through 47 2/3 innings. Suarez punched out an elite 32.4% of batters faced along the way. His 10.1% walk percentage was still a bit higher than ideal, but he had no issue overpowering opponents while brandishing eye-popping stuff.
Suarez averaged 97-98 MPH on his fastball, backed up by an upper-80s changeup that served as his put-away offering. He only picked up one save, but he held 11 leads and worked in high-leverage situations throughout the year. Aside from the Opening Day blip, the only negative in his regular season showing was a two-month absence due to right knee inflammation. His stuff was no worse for wear upon his return in mid-August and the Friars clearly don’t harbor any concerns about his long-term health projection.
The postseason ended on a sour note for both Suarez and the Padres, as he was on the mound for what proved to be a season-ending home run allowed to Bryce Harper in the NLCS. He’d pitched his way out of a number of jams earlier in the playoffs before that dramatic at-bat against Harper, and he finished the postseason with a respectable three runs allowed in nine innings. The power stuff he showed along the way bolstered his market value on the eve of his return trip to free agency, and Suarez now cashes in with one of the best free agent deals for a non-closing reliever.
Suarez becomes the fourth reliever in the past decade to land a five-year guarantee. The previous three — Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Edwin Díaz (who inked his deal last week) — each had closing experience and multiple seasons of big league success under their belt. That’s also true of players like Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Mark Melancon and Raisel Iglesias — who all bested a $46MM total over four or fewer seasons. Suarez’s track record of one-year dominance in the middle innings perhaps most closely compares to his now-teammate, Drew Pomeranz, who landed $34MM over four years during the 2018-19 offseason after an incredible second half in his platform campaign.
It’s a strong milestone for Suarez and his representatives that also keeps him with the club that gave him his first big league opportunity. He’ll return as a high-leverage piece for Melvin, joining Josh Hader, Luis García and a hopefully healthy Pomeranz in the late-game mix. Meanwhile, the successive early re-signings of Díaz and Suarez remove arguably the two best relievers from this winter’s free agent class.
The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported. The Friars currently have around $203MM on next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger sits just shy of $225MM, and Suarez’s deal will add another $9.2MM to that tab. A contract’s luxury tax hit is determined by its average annual value, and the final two years of the deal are still considered guaranteed even though Suarez will have the chance to opt out of the arrangement. The Padres look likely to surpass next season’s $233MM base tax threshold, but ownership and the front office have shown no qualms about doing so in an effort to build one of the best rosters in the National League.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report Suarez and the Padres were in agreement on a five-year, $46MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the specific salary breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
NPB’s Hiroshima Carp To Sign Matt Davidson
The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have signed infielder Matt Davidson to a one-year contract, per Yahoo Japan. Davidson is represented by CAA.
It’ll be the first stint overseas for Davidson, the No. 35 overall pick in the 2009 draft (D-backs) and former top prospect who’s appeared in parts of six MLB seasons dating back to his 2013 debut. The bulk of Davidson’s MLB action has come with the White Sox, for whom he slugged 46 home runs between the 2017-18 seasons. However, despite Davidson’s clear plus power, he’s been hampered by a lofty 34.3% strikeout rate that has helped suppress his overall output. In 1112 plate appearances at the MLB level, Davidson is a .220/.290/.430 hitter with 54 home runs. He most recently appeared in 13 games between the A’s and D-backs in 2022.
Though he’s had his struggles at the big league level, Davidson has a much stronger track record in Triple-A — including a 2022 season in which he posted a mammoth .310/.414/.644 slash with 32 home runs in just 332 plate appearances between the top affiliates for Oakland and Arizona. The Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter-friendly, but it’s nonetheless impressive to see that Davidson has slugged 60 round-trippers in his past 170 Triple-A games — and 93 in his past 275 games, dating back to 2019.
Even with consistent production in Triple-A over the past few seasons, Davidson hasn’t gotten much in the way of an MLB look. He’s appeared in just 35 big league games since Opening Day 2019. In Japan, Davidson will receive consistent playing time and a far heftier salary than he’d have otherwise earned as a likely minor league signee who’d be seen as a depth option for a Major League club.
Mariners Have Shown Interest In Kolten Wong
Fresh off yesterday’s acquisition of Teoscar Hernandez, the Mariners are again looking to the trade market to solidify some areas of need. Seattle has reached out to the Brewers to inquire on the potential availability of second baseman Kolten Wong, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).
Wong is a natural target for the Mariners, given their lack of a clear starter at second base and a lineup that skews a bit right-handed. The Brewers picked up a $10MM club option on the two-time Gold Glove winner just last week, but Milwaukee’s massive arbitration class and mounting payroll opens the door for the trades of some players on notable salaries. While picking up Wong’s option shows that the team is certainly comfortable committing what was a net $8MM to him — the option had a $2MM buyout — Milwaukee also surely recognized that at one year and $10MM, Wong may also be a desirable trade commodity.
Should the Brewers ultimately trade Wong, they might not feel compelled to look outside the organization for an alternative. Luis Urias is currently slated to play third base in 2023, but he has ample experience at second and could appear there more regularly in the absence of Wong. Alternatively, former first-round pick Brice Turang played a full season in Triple-A at just 22 years of age and held his own against more seasoned competition, batting .286/.360/.412 (108 wRC+) with 13 home runs, 24 doubles, two triples, 34 steals (in 36 tries), a 10.8% walk rate and a 19.6% strikeout rate. He’s already on the 40-man roster and quite arguably ready for a look in the big leagues.
The 2022 season was an odd one for Wong — one of his best with the bat and perhaps his worst with the glove. The 32-year-old smacked a career-high 15 home runs and batted .251/.339/.430, adding 24 doubles, five triples and 17 steals (in 23 tries) along the way. The 2022 season marked a second straight year of improved power for Wong, who put the ball on the ground at a 47% clip during his eight-year tenure with the Cardinals but has dropped that to 42% as a member of the Brewers. Whether it’s been a conscious decision to elevate the ball more regularly or simply an organic development in his swing path, the uptick in power is noticeable. It’s come with a slight bump in his strikeouts, but Wong’s 17.7% rate in 2022 was still well shy of the league average.
On the defensive side of the game, however, the 2022 season was a bizarre and borderline nightmarish one for Wong. Typically one of the game’s best defenders at his position, Wong made a stunning 17 errors — more than he’d totaled in the three prior seasons combined. When his option was picked up, Wong told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak that his legs weren’t fully healthy in 2022, which he felt contributed to his surprising defensive shortcomings (Twitter links). Wong missed time in June with a calf strain that sent him to the injured list, and it’s certainly plausible that his legs cost him some of his typical defensive excellence.
Though he’s a natural fit for the Mariners, Wong is no lock to be traded and is but one of many options Seattle could pursue at the position. Old friend Jean Segura is the top second baseman on the market, and Brandon Drury is another potential free-agent option, although he played far more third base than second base in 2022. The Mariners could, for a second straight offseason, try to convince a premier shortstop to sign in Seattle and slide over to second base. Dipoto’s Mariners appear committed to keeping J.P. Crawford at shortstop, even on the heels of his own down season with the glove.
The Opener: MVP Awards, Outfield Market, Top 50
As MLB’s awards season draws to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. MVP Results Announced Tonight
The final award announcements for the 2022-23 season are coming tonight, with the AL and NL Most Valuable Player awards being announced at 5:00 PM CT. The finalists in the AL are Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez, while the NL finalists are Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Manny Machado. The AL race this year was a particularly remarkable one, with historic seasons pitted against each other; Ohtani arguably improved on his 2021 AL MVP campaign this year, while Judge delivered perhaps the best offensive season since the days of Barry Bonds. Alvarez, for his part, put up rate numbers that would be more strongly in the mix in just about any other year. Despite truly special seasons from all three finalists in the AL, though, Judge appears to be the favorite after he set a new AL home run record. Over in the NL, Goldschmidt flirted with the Triple Crown at one point, but his season finished on a low note, as he slashed just .245/.333/.383 after the calendar flipped to September. That may have slightly opened the door for Arenado and Machado, who posted extremely similar profiles to one another in 2022. Machado’s .298/.366/.531 season line is nearly indistinguishable from Arenado’s line of .293/.358/.533.
2. How The Teoscar Trade Changes The Market
Yesterday saw the Mariners and the Blue Jays work out a trade to send Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle, potentially shaking up the outfield market in a significant way. With Hernandez no longer penciled into right field every day, the Blue Jays are now even more likely to pursue outfield help, with George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. their only regular outfielders as things stand. Both Cavan Biggio and Whit Merrifield saw time in the outfield last year, but with the Blue Jays already rumored to be in the market for another outfielder even before yesterday’s trade, they’ll likely only be more aggressive in their pursuit as the offseason progresses. The other side of the trade has implications for the market as well, as Seattle is now even more deeper in outfield options. Hernandez will likely slot into right field with Julio Rodriguez in center and Jesse Winker (assuming he himself isn’t traded) in left, but the Mariners have Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty further down the depth chart, to say nothing of prospects Cade Marlowe and Zach DeLoach, who could be ready for big league action sometime next year. Needless to say, Seattle’s glut of outfielders could draw trade interest, and the addition of Hernandez makes it all the likelier that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will deal from that depth.
3. Talking Top 50 with Rob Bradford
MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents list and predictions dropped last week, and entries for our Free Agent Prediction contest were due last night — but that doesn’t mean all things Top 50-related are in the rearview mirror just yet. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams joined Rob Bradford of Audacy Sports and WEEI on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast to discuss the Top 50 list and the free-agent class at large. You can listen to their appearance here, and you can follow Baseball Isn’t Boring and follow Rob on Twitter.