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Nationals Notes: Martinez, Turner, Robles

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Dave Martinez already broke new ground in Nationals’ managerial history by winning the World Series in 2019, but in 2021, he will again traverse new territory previously untrod by Nats’ managers: a fourth season on the job. Davey Johnson won Manager of the Year in 2012, Matt Williams won the award in 2014, and Dusty Baker became the first Nats’ manager to win back-to-back NL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but each of Martinez’s predecessors were let go before a fourth campaign (or third in the case of Williams and Baker).

Martinez figures to blow well past the three-year record previously held by Johnson, Jim Riggleman and Manny Acta. Martinez was given a contract extension last year, freeing him to take the long view in the development of his young players, including superstar Juan Soto, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals – reactionary to disappointing playoff losses in the past – seem to have a new view under Martinez, weathering a difficult 2020 without missing a beat. They’ll enter 2021 expecting to contend, and Martinez will look to check another box off his list by winning an NL East title.

Part of his forward-thinking approach is mulling new ways to maximize production from his superstars Soto and Trea Turner. This season, the question is whether or not to move Turner from the leadoff spot, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Nationals don’t necessarily have another prime candidate to step into the top spot of the lineup, however. Martinez would like to try Victor Robles at the top of the order against southpaws, writes Zuckerman. Beyond a small sample size of success leading off, Robles has done little to prove himself a natural candidate as a table-setter. He owns a 5.3 percent career walk rate and a 36.7 percent first pitch swing percentage – a good deal more aggressive than the league average of 28.3 percent.

Viewing Turner as a middle-of-the-order bat is sound, however. Though he’s mostly known for being one of the fastest players in the game, Turner’s bat carries serious thunder: Turner boasts a .216 ISO and 130 wRC+ over the past two seasons. He’s performed 18 percent better than average with the bat for his career. Turner has largely been underrated in part because his most impressive performances have come in seasons cut short either because of a late promotion (2016), injury (2019) or the pandemic (2020). It was his return from injury that largely prompted the Nationals magical run in 2019, however, as Turner famously returned in May to hit .296/.352/.487 despite a broken finger. The Nationals are relying heavily on Turner to be the offensive superstar he was in 2020, when he was on pace for a 7+ fWAR season at a 162-game pace.

Padres Extend Fernando Tatis Jr.

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FEB 22: The Padres have announced their mega-contract with Tatis (via Twitter). Tatis will make $1MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022, $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM apiece in 2025 and 2026, $25MM in 2027 and 2028, and then $36MM yearly from 2029 through 2034, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

FEB 17: The Padres have agreed to a historic 14-year deal with superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). It is worth a guaranteed $340MM, Robert Murray of Fansided adds on Twitter. The deal provides Tatis with full no-trade rights, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. There’s a $10MM signing bonus.

While the deal covers a staggering number of years, it’ll only take Tatis through his age-35 season. The young superstar only just celebrated his 22nd birthday.

This pact sets a record for pre-arbitration deals by a rather healthy margin. The great Mike Trout had held the record with a $144.5MM deal. In Trout’s case, of course, the contract covered only six seasons — until it was further extended a few years later. Tatis’s guarantee falls just shy of the $360MM of additional money Trout received in the second agreement. It’s such a monster deal, in fact, that it slots in as the third-largest of any kind in baseball history.

[The 20 Largest Contracts In MLB History]

While this deal won’t change the complexion of an increasingly loaded 2021 Friars roster, it makes for a bold statement of intent by the San Diego organization. The club could’ve sat back and enjoyed Tatis while waiting to see how its roster situation evolved. Instead, the Pads have effectively declared him the franchise cornerstone for the foreseeable future.

Tatis would have reached arbitration eligibility after the 2022 season, so he was still a full campaign away from securing serious earnings. The MVP Sports client had been slated to reach free agency after the 2024 season, at which time he’d have been marketing his age-26 and beyond years.

This deal represents the culmination of a fascinating series of developments involving Tatis. At the time the Padres acquired him — in what turned out to be an all-time heist of a deal — Tatis was noteworthy mostly because of his namesake father, former big leaguer Fernando Tatis. The younger Tatis quickly blossomed into one of the game’s most-hyped prospects, though some worried about his strikeout rate and ability to stick at shortstop.

[How Did The White Sox Trade Fernando Tatis Jr.?!]

At this point in the spring of 2019, the Padres appeared set to keep up a steady building process, with Tatis opening at the Triple-A level and trying to earn his way into the majors by mid-season. Instead, the club inked Manny Machado to a $300MM pact, then went on to promote Tatis to the MLB roster to open the season. That decision seemed to some a foolhardy gambit, as even a brief delay would’ve allowed the Friars to delay Tatis’s free agency by a full season.

Now that Tatis has joined Machado to form the most expensive left side of an infield in baseball history, it’s fair to wonder if the daring promotion helped set the stage. While Tatis’s agents gained added leverage in negotiations, the good will surely helped the small-market Pads convince Tatis to commit to the organization instead of holding out for a potential bonanza in free agency.

Though Tatis has logged just 143 MLB games to this point — the product of an injury and global pandemic — he has done nothing but impress. Through 629 plate appearances, he has produced at a healthy .301/.374/.582 clip (good for a 150 wRC+) with 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He not only improved his plate discipline but generated much greater defensive value in his sophomore season.

Padres GM A.J. Preller had already given fans of the organization ample reason for excitement — even if it’ll still take a herculean effort to take down the perennial favorite Dodgers. Now, the Friar faithful will have the chance not only to watch one of the game’s most entertaining players, but to do so knowing there’s a real chance he’ll be a lifetime franchise icon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Re-Sign Chaz Roe To Major League Deal

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FEB 22: This deal is official, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), as if their deal with Collin McHugh.  The Rays announced that Yonny Chirinos and Oliver Drake have been placed on the 60-day injured list to open up roster space for Roe and McHugh.

FEB 21: The Rays are in agreement on a contract with reliever Chaz Roe, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The 34-year-old returns to the Tampa Bay organization for a fifth consecutive season. It’s a one-year, major league contract, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). The Apex Baseball client is guaranteed $1.15MM, per Topkin.

Roe has found a decent amount of success with the Rays over the past few years. Thanks to a wipeout slider he uses well over half the time, the right-hander has never had any trouble racking up punchouts. Over the past three seasons, Roe has pitched to a 3.74 ERA with a strong 27% strikeout rate. He has run into some trouble with walks but generally been a solid bullpen piece for manager Kevin Cash.

The Rays waived Roe off the 40-man roster after some concerning developments last season. Roe’s average fastball velocity was down a tick relative to past years, while he generated swings and misses at a career-worst 8.8% clip (against a league average 11.8% swinging strike rate for relievers). Most concerning, his season was cut short by elbow soreness after just 9.1 innings, as Roe didn’t pitch after August 19.

Nevertheless, the Rays are sufficiently satisfied Roe’s health woes are behind him at this point. The veteran threw in front of teams last weekend and apparently impressed Tampa Bay brass enough to bring him back into the fold with a guaranteed roster spot.

Royals Sign Brad Brach To Minors Deal

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The Royals have signed Brad Brach to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, the team announced. Brach began the winter by exercising a $2.075MM player option to stay with the Mets, money still owed by New York. Last week the Mets designated Brach for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Jonathan Villar. He was later released after passing through waivers.

Brach struggled through a drop in velocity from 94.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2019 to just 90.3 mph in 2020. The fall in velocity coincided with a decline in four-seamer usage as Brach relied more heavily on an east-west moving cutter/slider, though he never found a groove during his 12 1/3 innings. He walked and stuck out an identical 24.1 percent of hitters, carrying over a command issue that plagued his half a season with the Cubs. He’d seemed to have figured it out over the back end of 2019 with the Mets, a 14 2/3 innings with a 3.68 ERA/2.67 FIP, 24.6 percent strikeout rate and sterling 4.9 percent walk rate. That’s a far better walk rate than Brach has been able to sustain elsewhere in his career, however, with an 8.0 percent walk rate being his absolute best mark over a full season.

Brach may find a bit of overcrowding in the Royals bullpen. Greg Holland, Josh Staumont, Scott Barlow, Jesse Hahn, Kyle Zimmer, and Jake Newberry can reasonable expect to find themselves on the roster given their 2020 performances. Jakob Junis could be bumped to the pen, and Wade Davis is in camp as a non-roster invitee. Tyler Zuber, Gabe Speier, and Richard Lovelady are also looking to secure spots, though they have options remaining

Red Sox Notes: Bloom, Martinez, Chavis

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Let’s head to Boston for the latest from Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom…

  • Bloom thinks the Red Sox should be competitive this season, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Designated hitter J.D. Martinez’s return to prominence is a crux of that belief, however, as Bloom notes that they know “how important he is to our lineup and just how much he brings a lineup together when he’s doing what he can do.” Martinez is upper crust when he’s on. He went six consecutive seasons from 2015 to 2019 posting absurd weighted runs created numbers between 136 wRC+ and 170 wRC+. The 33-year-old slugger saw his numbers crater in 2020 to a .213/.291/.389 line worth -1.0 fWAR and 77 wRC+. His isolated power fell to .175 ISO, though a 9.3 percent walk rate and 24.9 percent strikeout rate fell within the range of his career norms. A .259 BABIP was well below his career averages, and while his batted ball profile wasn’t horrendous, it also wasn’t all-world for the first time in his Boston tenure. Martinez needs to be a threat for the rest of the Boston lineup to fall into place.
  • Bloom maintains his long-term perspective, hoping to see the next Red Sox core establishing themselves by the end of 2021, writes the Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. Said Bloom, “That next core that is going to be the center of a sustainable championship contender. To see that core taking shape, both with the players who have been here, who have been part of the core that won the last championship — that are going to continue to be here – and then the players who are going to join that group, whether it’s from within our system, whether it’s guys we’ve acquired, or even guys who might not be here yet. To feel that by the end of the year, we can see that core taking even more shape than we can see right now.”
  • There are only so many candidates left that Bloom could be referring to when talking about members of the last Red Sox champ. Ostensibly, that’s Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers on the position player side. The former was extended through 2025, and the latter could be next in line, if indeed Bloom views him as a centerpiece offensive contributor. The Red Sox can clear a lot of payroll space after this season, and only Bogaerts and Chris Sale are on the books for 2023, so there’s plenty of runway for Devers to land a long-term extension.
  • Red Sox manager Alex Cora is leaning towards entering the season with a three-man position player bench, a strategy buoyed by the recent signings of Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. Michael Chavis is another guy who will move around the diamond a bit. Cora plans on giving Chavis time at third, first, second, and left field. But he wants to see more consistency from the young right-hander at the plate, per Rob Bradford of WEEI sports radio network. Chavis especially needs to mash versus southpaws, though he has just a .257 wOBA against lefties through 158 career plate appearances compared to a .281 wOBA versus same-handed hurlers.

Quick Hits: Braves, Rosenthal, Ohtani, Ray, Cherington

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The Braves had interest in Trevor Rosenthal before the reliever signed with the A’s, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman writes (Twitter link).  With Rosenthal now off the market, Atlanta is still looking for right-handed relief help, and Heyman wonders if the Braves could turn to a familiar face in Shane Greene.  Apart from some consideration from the Twins earlier this month, there hasn’t been much buzz about Greene this offseason, despite his 2.39 ERA over 90 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season.  Greene doesn’t have a big fastball and his peripherals haven’t been overly impressive, however, which could explain why he still available heading into his age-32 season.  Atlanta did recently add veteran righty Nate Jones to their bullpen mix on a minor league deal.

Some more notes from around baseball…

  • Most players make changes in the wake of a rough season, but Shohei Ohtani faced the increased challenge of overhauling himself as both a hitter and a pitcher after a 2020 campaign the Angels star called “pathetic.”  Ohtani’s offseason endeavors included a trip to Driveline Baseball, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports, and Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo told reporters that the pitcher/DH has adopted a new training regiment, a new diet, and made changes to his swing.  Ohtani’s training has been helped by the fact that he is now recovered from a flexor strain that limited him to 1 2/3 innings as a pitcher in 2020, which came after not pitching at all in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery.
  • Robbie Ray’s foray into the open market didn’t last long, as the southpaw re-signed with the Blue Jays shortly after the free agent period opened in early November.  This gave Ray more time to spend with Jays coaches on trying to correct his form following a mediocre 2020 season, Ray told reporters (including The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm).  Ray made changes to his arm slot prior to the 2020 season, which may have led to such disastrous results as a 6.62 ERA and 45 walks over just 51 2/3 innings with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays.
  • The Pirates are still in the early stages of a rebuild, and GM Ben Cherington gave an outline of the team’s basic plan to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and other reporters.  Modeled after how other clubs have undergone rebuilds, Cherington broke it down into three steps: talent accumulation, developing that talent, and then adding to that talent base through trades and free agency.  The general manager also made it clear that the Bucs are still in the first step, as “whatever improvement we’ve seen in our overall organizational talent — and I think we have seen some improvements in the last year — it’s not enough.  We’ve got to keep going.  We’ve got to be one of the stronger organizations just in terms of overall talent to give ourselves the best chance to win.”

Mets Designate Guillermo Heredia For Assignment

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The Mets have designated outfielder Guillermo Heredia for assignment.  The move was made to create a 40-man roster spot for Kevin Pillar, whose contract with the team is now official.

Heredia appeared in seven games for the Mets after being claimed off waivers from the Pirates in August.  All told, the outfielder hit .212/278/.394 over 36 plate appearances for Pittsburgh and New York.  It isn’t far off the numbers (.240/.317/.342) Heredia posted in his four previous big league seasons, over 1101 PA with the Mariners (from 2016-18) and Rays (2019).

The 30-year-old can provide depth at all three outfield positions, so the Mets are surely hoping Heredia goes unclaimed and can remain in the farm system as a backup option in the event of injury.  The Mets are fairly crowded with outfield options on the active roster, but Heredia and non-roster invite Mallex Smith project as the first men up from Triple-A if a replacement is needed.

Mets Sign Kevin Pillar

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TODAY: Pillar’s deal was officially announced by the team.

FEB. 15, 10:18pm: Pillar will earn $3.6MM this year. There is a $2.9MM player option with no buyout or a $6.4MM club option with a $1.4MM buyout for 2022, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

9:40pm: It’s a $5MM guarantee that could go to $10MM over two years, Heyman tweets.

7:57pm: It’s a one-year contract, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.

7:38pm: The two sides have a deal, pending a physical, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. It’s expected to be a major league pact, Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds.

7:24pm: The Mets and free-agent outfielder Kevin Pillar “are in serious talks,” according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Pillar would be the second notable outfield addition in the past week for the Mets, who previously signed ex-Cub Albert Almora Jr.

Like Almora, Pillar would provide depth in a Mets outfield that, at least for now, is slated to start Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Dominic Smith in 2021. Of course that, could be subject to change if the Mets make another major acquisition by signing, say, Jackie Bradley Jr. – the top-ranked center fielder left in free agency – or swinging a trade for Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. Mets fans would probably prefer a high-profile move like that, but it’s possible the team will simply go into the year with the cast it has and a lower-cost pickup such as Pillar.

Now 32 years old, Pillar is best known for his run in Toronto from 2013-19, during which he established himself as a world-class defender in center field. Pillar spent most of 2019 as a Giant after they acquired him from the Blue Jays, and he divided last season between the Red Sox and Rockies. Statistically, Pillar’s defense isn’t at peak form (he combined for minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved and a 2.0 Ultimate Zone Rating from 2019-20), but he does carry experience at all three outfield positions.

Pillar has never been a huge offensive threat, but a team could certainly do worse than him as a reserve option. He’s a lifetime .262/.299/.408 hitter with 82 home runs and 88 stolen bases over 3,486 plate appearances. Pillar recorded a personal-best 106 wRC+ last season, when he slashed .288/.336/.462, hit six homers and swiped five bags in 223 PA.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/21/21

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The latest minor moves from around the game:

  • The Braves announced that outfielder Travis Demeritte has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Gwinnett. The move opens a 40-man roster spot, which figures to go to infielder Jake Lamb once his one-year deal is finalized. This is Demeritte’s second stint the Braves, as Atlanta traded Demeritte to the Tigers in 2019 but brought him back via waivers last week. The 26-year-old will remain in the Atlanta organization as non-roster depth. Over 219 plate appearances in Detroit the past two seasons, Demeritte hit just .217/.284/.323 with three home runs.
  • The Padres announced they have signed catcher Wynston Sawyer to a minor-league contract with an invitation to big league spring training. A former eighth-round pick of the Orioles, Sawyer has also spent time in the minors with the Dodgers and Twins. The 29-year-old hasn’t gotten any MLB action, but he did earn a spot on the Yankees’ 40-man roster at the end of last season. Sawyer has generally been productive in the high minors, compiling a .263/.328/.421 line in three seasons at Double-A and hitting .277/.370/.405 at the Triple-A level. San Diego currently has Austin Nola, Víctor Caratini and top prospect Luis Campusano on the 40-man roster at the position.

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