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The Opener: Rule 5 Draft, Yankees, Rangers

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As the Winter Meetings enters its final stretch today, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2024 Rule 5 Draft:

Baseball’s annual Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place at 1pm CT this afternoon. International players and high school draft picks who signed in 2019 and college draft picks signed in 2020 who have not yet been added to their club’s 40-man roster are vulnerable in today’s draft, where any club can select them for a $100K fee. If the player does not stick on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K. Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to select a player in the draft, meaning the Tigers and Red Sox would each need to clear space on their 40-man roster before the draft begins in order to participate.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft occasionally go on to impact their team in the future, as free agent outfielder Anthony Santander famously did following his selection in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. Red Sox right-hander Justin Slaten, A’s right-hander Mitch Spence, and Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek are among last year’s picks who remained with their new organization through the entire 2024 season, with Slaten in particular featuring prominently in Boston’s late-inning mix. Will a similarly valuable diamond in the rough be unearthed today?

2. Yankees pivot away from Soto:

The Yankees started their pivot away from Juan Soto yesterday in a big way when they agreed to an eight-year deal with left-hander Max Fried. The deal is the largest in MLB history for a left-handed starting pitcher, and every indication is that the hot stove will stay active in the Bronx going forward. The club has been connected to first baseman Christian Walker, third baseman Alex Bregman, and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez among others in free agency, while potential trade candidates include White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet, Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker, and Cubs first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. The club’s reported interest in Crochet came before they landed Fried, but each of those hitters still seems to be a reasonably possible target for the Yankees as they look to rebuild their lineup without Soto.

3. What’s next for the Rangers?

The Rangers checked the biggest box of their offseason yesterday by agreeing to a deal that would bring right-hander Nathan Eovaldi back into the fold. That wasn’t the club’s only move last night, either, as they followed it up by acquiring infielder Jake Burger from the Marlins for a package of three prospects. With limited payroll space available as the club seeks to duck under the luxury tax this winter, could the acquisition of Burger prompt Texas to deal a hitter such as first baseman Nathaniel Lowe in order to free up additional dollars for pitching help? Barring to clear payroll, Chris Young’s front office will need to get creative in order to rebuild a bullpen that’s lost Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates to free agency while also adding additional starting depth.

Royals Receiving Trade Interest In Angel Zerpa

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After a solid season in the Royals’ bullpen, left-hander Angel Zerpa is drawing trade attention from rival teams, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes.  There is no sense a deal is close or even if Kansas City is open to moving Zerpa, but Rogers notes that the Royals could deal from what seems to be a surplus of left-handed pitching.

Cole Ragans sits atop the K.C. rotation and obviously isn’t going anywhere, and Kris Bubic probably won’t be dealt since the Royals want to see how he fares in a return to starting pitching.  Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, Sam Long, and prospects Noah Cameron and Evan Sisk are the other left-handers on the Royals’ 40-man roster, with Rogers noting that Lynch and Cameron will also be competing for a rotation job in Spring Training.

Kansas City might wish to see how the rotation competition plays out before making any decisions on trades, in order to gauge Bubic’s health now that he is a bit further removed from an April 2023 Tommy John surgery, and to monitor Kyle Wright’s return after he missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery.  There’s also the fact that Zerpa is not just one of several lefties, but he is currently the top left-handed option in the Royals bullpen.  Given how the relief corps was middling on the whole in 2024, the Royals might prefer to add to the pen rather than subtract, especially since the team’s pitching depth already took a hit when Brady Singer was dealt to the Reds.

Still, there’s no harm in hearing what teams might have to offer for the 25-year-old Zerpa, who is team-controlled through the 2028 season.  An amateur signing out of Venezuela in 2016, Zerpa has spent his whole career in the K.C. organization, and made it to the majors for a single appearance during the 2021 season.  The Royals shuttled him back and forth from Triple-A several times in 2022-23, but Zerpa also dealt with two notable injuries — a patellar tendon tear in his right knee cut short Zerpa’s 2022 season, and a shoulder problem kept him from making his 2023 debut until August.

With a 3.84 ERA in his first 58 2/3 innings (starting six of 19 games), Zerpa broke camp in 2024 in a full-fledged relief role.  He just about matched his previous career ERA with a 3.86 ERA in 53 2/3 relief frames last year, along with an outstanding 58.2% grounder rate.  Zerpa’s ability to keep the ball on the ground helped him paper over below-average strikeout (20.4) and walk (8.3) rates, and notwithstanding his .325 BABIP, a lot of the hard contact he allowed ended up staying on the ground.

It isn’t your standard recipe for bullpen success, and so it seems plausible the Royals might consider selling high on Zerpa if another club has enough interest.  Rogers suggests that rival teams might even be looking at returning Zerpa to a starting role, which might also bump up his value in trade talks to some extent.

Latest On Yankees, Christian Walker

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The Yankees’ interest in Christian Walker was initially reported on last month, but it wasn’t until Juan Soto signed with the Mets that the Yankees were seemingly able to devote more attention to other position-player targets.  The change of focus apparently happened pretty quickly, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Yankees “renewed contract discussions” with Walker’s camp on Sunday evening, which was the same time that news broke of Soto’s record $765MM contract.

While the pitching and hitting markets aren’t exactly the same, the Bombers’ eight-year, $218MM megadeal with Max Fried is easy evidence that New York has been able to quickly pivot into the rest of its target list with Soto off the board.  First base help and lineup help in general are both needs, and signing Walker would address both issues in one fell swoop.

Fried’s deal adds another wrinkle to the Yankees’ pursuit of Walker, or any other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024 and because Fried turned down the Braves’ QO, the Yankees had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money as well as their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in order to complete the signing.  Inking Walker to a deal would cost the Yankees another $1MM in int’l pool funds, as well as two more draft picks — their third- and sixth-highest selections.

As much of a hit this could be to New York’s 2025 draft plans, Brian Cashman’s front office might view it as a necessary cost in order to capitalize on the team’s contention window.  Fried adds another top-flight arm to pair with Gerrit Cole atop a deep Yankee rotation, Aaron Judge is still arguably the best hitter in the sport, Giancarlo Stanton has a bounce-back 2024 season, and a younger core of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and (New York hopes) Jasson Dominguez can all contribute both now and in the future.

Walker would represent another big piece to this puzzle, bringing both elite first-base defense and a strong bat.  Walker is turning 34 in March but hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, plus his age might be a feature and not a bug in terms of the Yankees’ needs.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi said that a shorter-term contract might be more preferable for the Yankees than a longer deal for a younger first base option, which is why Morosi notes that Walker “is more of a priority for the Yankees than Pete Alonso would be.”

Reds Among Teams Interested In Luis Robert Jr.

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Apart from Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr. is the biggest trade chip the White Sox have on offer as the club looks to continue its rebuilding process.  Though 2024 was another injury-marred season for Robert, Sox GM Chris Getz told the Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen (multiple links) and other reporters that his team has “gotten a lot of interest” in Robert’s services during the Winter Meetings.  The Reds appear to be one of those interested parties, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Ohio team has “at least checked in on Robert.”

It’s no secret that Getz is asking for a lot in return for Robert, and the general manager defended his stance by saying that the White Sox are looking for a trade package commensurate to “the talent that he brings to the table” since Robert’s “tools haven’t changed.”

“Obviously, the injury last year was disruptive to [Robert’s] production, but the reason there’s so much interest is because maybe a team feels like they can capture something that perhaps didn’t show up last year,” Getz said.

Cincinnati is an interesting potential trade partner because the Reds also have a lot of high-ceiling younger players coming off disappointing 2024 seasons.  The Reds went 82-80 in 2023 and went into last season looking to make a step forward into contention, but instead fell back to 77 wins because Elly De La Cruz and Tyler Stephenson were basically the only members of the team’s younger core that met expectations.  Whether due to injuries or just plain under-performance, players like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand now head into the coming season with plenty left to prove about their building-block status.

Speculatively, working out a trade package involving Robert and at least one of these players could help offset some of the concerns the Reds might have about Robert’s long-term health.  Granted, Getz isn’t likely to sell low on Robert unless he absolutely has to, but taking on a player in a trade package that is also a bit of a question mark doesn’t seem like an unreasonable approach on the Reds’ part.  Just as Getz can argue that Robert’s underlying talent is the key factor in trade talks, Cincinnati might take that same argument in regards to any of its potential trade chips.

The outfield is known to be a target area for the Reds, and Robert would address that need in a big way.  With Robert stepping in as new regular center fielder, TJ Friedl could be shifted to left field, if Steer is subsequently moved back to the infield.  There are plenty of ways manager Terry Francona could juggle his lineup around Robert as one of the everyday cornerstones, and if another injury did arise, Friedl, Will Benson, or Stuart Fairchild would presumably still be on hand to step back into center field.

Part of Robert’s trade value is tied to his contract, which is a bargain if the outfielder is as healthy and productive as he was in his All-Star 2023 season.  Robert is set to earn $15MM in 2025, and the White Sox have a pair of $20MM club options (with $2MM buyouts) for both the 2026 and 2027 seasons.  While not huge money by superstar standards, the Reds’ trade efforts could be complicated if the team is indeed operating within very limited payroll parameters.

Ownership might be willing to allot more money to the Reds’ payroll in the special circumstance of a Robert trade coming to fruition, or another creative answer could be explored.  From Chicago’s perspective, Getz is open to ideas, noting that the White Sox have had some talks about three-team trades (presumably involving Robert or Crochet).  “If that’s the best way to acquire the talent for your organization, you do it,” Getz said.

Red Sox Among Teams Interested In James McCann

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Veteran catcher James McCann has received offers from at least four teams, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes, and the Red Sox are one of the suitors checking in on the backstop’s services.  McCann has spent the last two seasons with the Orioles, and while Baltimore had shown interest in a potential reunion, the club’s recent signing of Gary Sanchez likely closes that door.

Sanchez is one of many available catchers who have already found new teams, leaving the Sox in a bit of a scramble to address the position.  Speaking with Cotillo and other reporters during the Winter Meetings, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow noted simply that “there were more teams in need of catching than there were available catchers.  That was the demographic that moved really, really quickly.”

Boston’s need is less glaring than most clubs, as the Red Sox are specifically looking for what Breslow described as “the right complement and right backup” for Connor Wong.  McCann and Wong are both right-handed hitters, though manager Alex Cora downplayed hitting balance as less important than strong defense.  This might not ideally fit McCann either, as Statcast’s metrics were particularly down on his overall defense in 2024, and a little mixed in general throughout his career.

A pair of strong seasons with the White Sox in 2019-20 lined McCann up to score a four-year, $40.6MM contract from the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.  Unfortunately, McCann’s hitting numbers tumbled in the aftermath of the signing, and the Mets then dealt him to the Orioles in December 2022 with New York eating the majority of McCann’s remaining salary.  McCann hit only .228/.274/.382 in 459 PA and 134 games with the O’s over the last two seasons, but his ability to handle a bit more than just a backup’s share of catching duties allowed Baltimore extra flexibility in keeping Adley Rutschman’s bat in the lineup as a designated hitter.

Angels Interested In Gleyber Torres

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Free agent second baseman Gleyber Torres is getting attention from multiple teams, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (X link), with the Angels cited as a new suitor.  The Blue Jays were also mentioned, and while Toronto’s interest in Torres dates back to early November, Morosi’s report today was published before the Jays seemingly addressed their second base position by acquiring Andres Gimenez.

An inconsistent 2024 season left Torres with a .257/.330/.378 slash line over 665 plate appearances in his walk year, as well as 15 home runs for the pennant-winning Yankees.  This works out to a 104 wRC+ that is slightly above league-average offensive production, but also a step down from the 118 wRC+ that Torres posted over the 2022-23 seasons.  Torres’ 35.4% hard-hit ball rate and 6.3% barrel rate were both career-lows of a full season, and he saw his strikeout rate drop back to average-ish career norms after a great year of avoiding swings and misses in 2023.

This doesn’t tell the full story of Torres’ 2024 campaign, however, as his numbers were diminished by an ugly early-season slump that cost him the leadoff spot in the Yankees’ lineup.  Getting regularly slotted back into the leadoff spot in mid-August seemed to restore Torres’ confidence — he hit .236/.309/.349 in his first 481 PA, but .313/.386/.454 in 184 PA from August 16 until the end of the season.  Torres continued to hit well during the ALDS and ALCS before the Dodgers’ pitching cooled off his bat during the World Series.

Finishing strong gives Torres some level of momentum heading into free agency, but clubs must have some natural concerns over the dropoff in Torres’ power.  Home run pop and a decent walk rate are Torres’ bread and butter, as public defensive metrics have graded his second-base glovework as subpar across the board in each of the last two seasons.

On the plus side, Torres is still only a couple of days short of his 28th birthday.  A case can be made that a change of scenery might be beneficial, as Torres was often a target of fan criticism during his up-and-down seven-season run in the Bronx.  Moving from New York to Los Angeles would technically be a lateral move in terms of market size, but obviously the Angels have a much lower profile, as the team is mired in a string of nine straight losing seasons and is playing second fiddle to the Dodgers within the area.

MLBTR ranked Torres 20th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with a very fluid projection of a two-year, $36MM deal.  It is easy to imagine Torres taking even a one-year deal with the intention of testing the market again after a strong 2025 season, or he might prefer to lock in the security of a longer-term contract if such an offer is on the table.  The free agent market for second basemen isn’t exactly deep, plus second base-needy teams like the Blue Jays (with Gimenez), Giants (by signing Willy Adames and moving Tyler Fitzgerald to second base), Royals (Jonathan India), and Rockies (Thairo Estrada) have already addressed the position in other ways.  A reunion with the Yankees has never seemed likely.

Luis Rengifo is penciled in as the Angels’ top second base option at the moment, but Rengifo’s versatility would allow him to be deployed in plenty of other ways if Los Angeles brought Torres into the fold.  Rengifo could play shortstop until Zach Neto is healthy, or get more work at third base given the Angels’ willingness to either move Anthony Rendon to other positions or perhaps reduce Rendon’s playing time entirely.

Despite the questions that exist about Torres’ bat, it still feels like he would help an Angels lineup that was one of the worst in baseball in 2024.  The Halos have been aggressive in trying to upgrade their roster this winter, already bolstering the lineup with Jorge Soler and Travis d’Arnaud and bringing Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks into the rotation.  Owner Arte Moreno has traditionally been wary about the luxury tax threshold, but RosterResource’s estimate of a current $207.1MM tax number still leaves L.A. with plenty of room for more additions before approaching the $241MM tax line.

Nolan Arenado Willing To Approve Trades To Six Teams

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As Nolan Arenado’s trade market continues to percolate, the no-trade clause in the third baseman’s contract puts Arenado and his camp in the driver’s seat when it comes to determining whether or not he’ll leave the Cardinals.  MLB.com’s John Denton reports that Arenado would okay a deal to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox.  It isn’t known if these are the only six clubs on what Denton describes as Arenado’s “wish list,” or if Arenado could be amenable to deals to any other clubs in the right circumstances.

Agent Joel Wolfe discussed his client’s situation with reporters (including Denton, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) today at the Winter Meetings, and implied that Arenado’s list of potential teams is “bigger than you would think.”  The chief factor in Arenado’s decision-making is finding “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

This all being said, Wolfe noted that Arenado is “not going to go just to go,” or “approve and move his family and go play somewhere that would…sidestepping” into a situation no better than his current spot in St. Louis.  Wolfe said he and Arenado have been in regular dialogue with Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, with Mozeliak floating some teams that have already been dismissed as “hard no’s of where he’d prefer not to go.”

Earlier reports indicated that three unknown “mid-market” clubs also had interest in Arenado’s services, so these could be some of the teams Arenado has already vetoed since the six teams on his list are bigger spenders.  The Yankees had also been linked to Arenado and Goold reports that the Cardinals were in touch with the Bronx Bombers about the third baseman.  As Jones notes, the Yankees seem like a fit on paper given their need at third base and the presence of Arenado’s good friend and old Rockies teammates DJ LeMahieu, but it remains to be seen if the Yankees are still on Arenado’s radar.

New York’s other team could also have an opening at the hot corner depending on how the Mets choose to deploy Mark Vientos, or whether or not the Mets re-sign Pete Alonso or add another big first base bat.  The Phillies likewise have an incumbent third baseman in Alec Bohm, but Bohm’s name has been mentioned in several trade rumors as one of the big-league roster pieces Philadelphia is reportedly open to moving to address other needs.

The Red Sox and Padres were more speculatively linked as suitors a few weeks ago, and Goold reports that St. Louis has already been in contact with these two clubs about Arenado.  Boston’s interest could hinge on whether or not they’d move Rafael Devers off third base, while Arenado’s own apparent willingness to leave his longtime third-base position might be related to his interest in joining the Padres (as San Diego already has a star third baseman in Manny Machado).

Wolfe addressed his client’s offer of a position change as a way to get in front of any awkward questions from a team’s end on the subject.  “The way he phrased it, ‘I’ll play first,’ sometimes [teams] don’t want to ask a player to do that,” Wolfe said.  “So he wanted to offer it and say, ‘I’m happy to play first, I can move around and play third.’ Nolan was like, ‘I’ll play shortstop, I’ll do whatever, but I’m not insulted to go play first, and I can win a Gold Glove over there, if that’s what it takes.’ ”

Since Arenado is from Southern California, it shouldn’t be ignored that the Padres, Dodgers, and Angels are all on his approval list, though Wolfe said Arenado has no geographic preference about his next destination.  It could be argued that the Angels might be on Arenado’s list solely due to location, as a team coming off nine straight losing seasons hardly seems to match Arenado’s preference for a team ready to win.

A trade to the Dodgers seems off the table, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Katie Woo hear from sources that “a deal for Arenado is not a possibility the organization has considered.”  L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes made a point of saying Monday that Max Muncy was going to remain as the team’s regular third baseman, and a position switch wouldn’t much help Arenado find a spot amidst the crowded Dodgers infield.

It remains to be seen if any of Arenado’s preferred teams may or may not want to bring the eight-time All-Star into the fold, though even in the event of mutual interest, there’s also the matter of working out a trade that is also acceptable to the Cardinals.  Other complications include Arenado’s age (he turns 34 in April), his declining power over the last two seasons, and the $74MM ($10MM covered by the Rockies) in salary owed over the remaining three years of his contract.

Angels Sign Carter Kieboom To Minors Contract

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The Angels have signed infielder Carter Kieboom to a minor league deal, according to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media (X link).  While not specified, it seems likely that Kieboom’s contract includes an invitation to the Halos’ big league spring camp.

There’s some irony that Kieboom is now again in the same organization as Anthony Rendon, since Kieboom was once viewed as Rendon’s successor at third base in Washington.  Selected 28th overall by the Nationals in the 2016 draft, Kieboom received plenty of attention on top-100 prospect lists as he continued to hit his way up the Nats’ minor league ladder.  He made his MLB debut in the form of 11 games with the Nationals in 2019, and after Rendon signed with the Angels during the 2019-20 offseason, the path was seemingly clear for Kieboom to step in at the hot corner.

Unfortunately, Kieboom hasn’t delivered over parts of four Major League seasons, though his entire career in the Show (133 games and 508 plate appearances) is still short of even one full season.  Kieboom has hit .199/.297/.301 over those 508 PA, and he didn’t get any big league action in 2022 since he missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  After playing in 27 games with the Nationals in 2023, Kieboom again missed out on any MLB playing time last year, as he spent the whole season at Triple-A after being outrighted off Washington’s 40-man roster.

Now entering his age-27 season, Kieboom will see if he can be a late bloomer in Anaheim.  He naturally wouldn’t be a fit as a starter at third base, but since the Angels are at least looking around for third base possibilities besides Rendon, Kieboom might have a shot at winning a roster spot during a Spring Training competition.  Primarily a third baseman, Kieboom does have some career experience at the other three infield positions, which could help his bid for a job.

Athletics Sign Luis Severino

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TODAY: Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via Bluesky) has the breakdown of Severino’s contract.  The $10MM signing bonus is broken up at $5MM next month and $5MM in January 2026.  The righty will earn $15MM this season and $20MM in 2026, so his player option for the 2027 season is worth $22MM.  Severino will also get a $500K assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

DECEMBER 6: The A’s are ready to spend some cash, announcing Friday that they’ve signed free agent righty Luis Severino to a three-year deal — the third year of which is a player option. Severino, a client of Klutch Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $67MM, to be paid out in the form of a $10MM signing bonus and $57MM in salary over the three seasons. He can opt out of the contract after year two and become a free agent once again in the 2026-27 offseason.

It’ll register as a shock for many to see the nomadic A’s, who will play next year in West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park (home to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate), land a notable free agent with a hefty multi-year deal. They’re in the process of relocating to Las Vegas and have been aggressively pursuing free agents in an effort to boost a payroll that entered the offseason without a single contract on the books in 2025. Some free agents — Walker Buehler among them — have entirely dismissed the notion of playing in a minor league facility. Still, with a reported target payroll in the $100MM range, there’s long been a possibility for the A’s to be a surprise player in free agency. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored just such a possibility at length last month.

The general thinking has been that the A’s will need to overpay in order to pursue top-end free agents this winter. The terms of Severino’s contract indeed suggest a clear willingness to spend well beyond market expectations in order to lure free agents to their new home. Severino’s deal includes both a larger guarantee than most anticipated and an opt-out opportunity. Because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, Severino will cost the A’s their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. He’ll also net the Mets a compensatory pick, albeit only between the fourth and fifth rounds because of their status as a luxury tax payor.

The $100MM target payroll likely stems from the Athletics’ status as a revenue-sharing recipient. The franchise was stripped of its revenue-sharing benefits last decade after failing to sufficiently utilize those funds to improve the on-field product, as is a stipulated requirement. The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement restored the A’s as a revenue-sharing recipient, and they’ve since spent modestly in free agency to keep payroll at least in step with the other lowest-spending clubs in the league. The deal with Severino signals a willingness to spend a bit beyond that point. It is, incredibly, the largest contract in franchise history, nominally surpassing the six-year, $66MM contract extension signed by third baseman Eric Chavez more than two decades ago.

[Related: The Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team]

Severino, 31, will immediately jump to the top of the A’s rotation. He’s likely ticketed for their Opening Day start, barring another notable acquisition via free agency or trade. He’ll lead a staff that currently projects to also include JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes. The A’s have a variety of in-house candidates for the fifth spot, though the Severino deal rather obviously opens the door for GM David Forst to sign/trade for another starter of note to further solidify the bunch.

Severino, of course, looked the part of a budding ace for the Yankees in 2017-18 when he posted 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 45.8% grounder rate in his age-23 and age-24 seasons. The flamethrowing righty averaged better than 97 mph on his heater, recorded a hefty 12.7% swinging-strike rate and generally had the makings of a star. The Yankees agreed, signing him to a four-year, $40MM extension with an option for a fifth season.

That deal bought out all of Severino’s arbitration years and his first free-agent season. At the time, some thought a pitcher with his upside and demonstrated excellence to date was perhaps selling himself short. In the long run, it worked out wonderfully, as injuries frequently kept Severino off the field and rendered him a shell of his former self when healthy enough to take the mound. From 2019-23, Severino managed only 209 1/3 innings in the majors, dealing with multiple lat strains and requiring Tommy John surgery along the way. His 2023 campaign included 89 1/3 frames with a 6.65 ERA.

The 2024 season marked a resurgence for Severino, who inked a one-year, $13MM deal with the Mets on the heels of that injury-plagued finish to his Yankees tenure. The right-hander’s 182 innings nearly matched his total over the five prior calendar years. He logged a 3.91 ERA with a below-average but passable 21.2% strikeout rate and a strong 7.6% walk rate. His 46% ground-ball rate, while not elite, was comfortably north of league average.

At the same time, Severino simply wasn’t the dominant force he was earlier in his career. His average fastball with the Mets was about 1.5 mph off from its peak levels. His 9.4% swinging-strike rate was decidedly below-average — a near mirror-image of his 9.1% mark in that disastrous 2023 season and nowhere close to his career-best 13.3% rate. Opponents made contact on just 81.9% of Severino’s pitches within the strike zone in 2017-18 — league-average was 84.7% — but did so at a whopping 88.2% clip in 2024 (when the league average was 85.2%).

When the Mets signed Severino to his one-year deal, it had the makings of an upside play on a former front-of-the-rotation arm. Last year’s rebound showed that he was healthy but also seemed to further support the notion that his prior ace-caliber form is in the rearview mirror. Severino now has the feel of a third or fourth starter, making his $22.333MM annual salary and an opt-out rather jarring.

Many pundits thought Severino could have — and should have — accepted the Mets’ $21.05MM qualifying offer; he and his agents deserve credit for not simply eclipsing that guarantee in notable fashion but surpassing that number on an annual basis over a lengthy deal that affords him another bite at free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. The contract tops recent guarantees for Chris Bassitt, who was seen as a steady and dependable No. 2-3 arm, and Yusei Kikuchi, whose torrid finish with the Astros made him one of the most sought-after pitchers on this offseason’s market. Both pitchers signed for $63MM over the same three-year term.

For the A’s, a commitment this weighty was likely deemed a necessity to land a mid-rotation arm whose velocity and ground-ball tendencies perhaps create some hope that he can still eke out some incremental improvements over his 2024 form. That said, there’s quite a bit of injury risk still associated with Severino, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.21) and SIERA (4.22) were actually more bearish on his 2024 performance than his already solid-but-unspectacular earned run average. There’s little doubt he improves the club and shows that the A’s are serious about spending this winter, but it’s a steep price to pay when taken in totality.

Severino will nevertheless add some credibility to a rotation that was largely lacking it. And the A’s, with a burgeoning core of quality players — Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers — could hope that a few subsequent additions and strides from young talents like Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof might help them exceed expectations sooner than most thought possible.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides agreed to a three-year, $67MM deal. Yahoo’s Russell Dorsey reported the signing bonus. Passan added details on the opt-out.

Padres “Exploring” Dylan Cease’s Trade Market

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As the Padres face payroll constraints amid an offseason where starting pitching has been at a premium, the possibility of San Diego fielding interest on right-hander Dylan Cease emerged earlier today with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggesting that the club is anywhere from actively “trying to unload” the right-hander to merely “open to offers” on him. This evening, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin characterized the situation slightly differently, reporting that the club is “at least exploring” Cease’s trade value but also cautioning that San Diego “prefers” to keep Cease in the fold and a trade is not considered likely at this time.

The Padres have plenty of needs this winter, including help in the outfield, starting rotation, and behind the plate. Dealing Cease from a 2025 rotation where he projects to feature prominently alongside Yu Darvish and Michael King would be a substantial hit to an already thin rotation mix, of course, even with with Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Adrian Morejon, Bryan Hoeing, and Stephen Kolek as potential back-end options available internally. It’s for that reason Lin reports the club would seek “multiple controllable players,” including “one or more” starting pitchers. If San Diego were unable to secure enough rotation help from a Cease trade, Lin adds, then they would likely look to flip those players to land other rotation pieces.

Given the club’s rotation needs, it may raise some eyebrows that the club could consider trading Cease even if they don’t receive controllable pitching in return. The logic behind that possibility, per Lin, stems in part from the club’s pessimism regarding their ability to keep Cease in San Diego long-term. While Lin notes the club still “harbors some hope” that they may be able to extend King before he reaches free agency next winter, they believe they have no such chance of being able to afford Cease following the 2025 campaign, when MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to make $13.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.

If Cease were to be traded for young talent, that $13.7MM could be re-invested into the roster and potentially used to a player in free agency, whether that be a mid-level starter like Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson or help in the outfield, perhaps even in the form of a reunion with Jurickson Profar. Much as that salary relief could be a huge boon to the Padres, it’s not an especially cumbersome figure overall. For that reason, Lin suggests that Cease could find a much wider range of suitors on the trade market this winter than Juan Soto did when San Diego shopped him last year, even as Cease isn’t nearly as impactful as the league’s newly-minted $765MM man.

At least one suitor for Cease’s services has already been named, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported earlier today that the Red Sox are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease. Boston has long been known to be targeting help at the top of their rotation, and after the club fell short in the pursuit of southpaw Max Fried today their interest in working out a deal to acquire Cease has surely only grown. The Red Sox currently seem focused on courting right-hander Corbin Burnes as they search for top-of-the-rotation help, but the possibility of the club looking to add two front-end starters this winter has been bandied about at times throughout the offseason so even landing a player of that caliber wouldn’t necessarily preclude a deal from taking place.

The Red Sox have a tantalizing cachet of top prospects in their system, though the likes of Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are generally considered to be untouchable in trade discussions. Catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Wilyer Abreu, or perhaps even right-hander Garrett Whitlock would be perfect fits San Diego’s needs, though it’s unclear if the Red Sox would be willing to part ways with any of those players in a deal for a rental piece like Cease. While Abreu in particular has been floated frequently as a potential trade candidate this winter, those rumors have typically tended to frame Abreu as the headliner for a package that would land a controllable piece like White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet rather than for a rental arm like Cease.

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