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NPB’s Yakult Swallows To Sign Cy Sneed

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TODAY: The Astros have requested unconditional release waivers on Sneed, according to multiple reports.  Sneed will be free to join the Swallows once he clears waivers.

NOVEMBER 27: The Yakult Swallows if Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have signed their second former big leaguer in as many days, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that they’ve agreed to terms with now-former Astros right-hander Cy Sneed (Twitter link). Yakult agreed to terms with former Pirates corner infielder/outfielder Jose Osuna earlier in the week.

Sneed, 28, came to the Astros organization in the 2015 trade that sent Jonathan Villar to the Brewers. He went on to make his Major League debut in 2019 and, over the course of the past two seasons, has logged 38 2/3 innings for Houston. It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for the 2014 third-rounder, however, as he’s been tagged for a 5.59 ERA and a 4.78 FIP with a 44-to-15 K/BB ratio and a hefty eight home runs allowed in that limited sample of work.

Sneed averages 93.5 mph on his heater and has complemented that pitch with a changeup, curveball and split-finger, though he largely scrapped the splitter in 2020. While he’s struggled in the Majors, he’s had some success in Triple-A. After a dismal Triple-A debut in 2017, Sneed turned in 127 innings of 3.83 ERA/3.89 FIP ball in an extremely hitter-friendly setting with the Astros’ Fresno affiliate in the Pacific Coast League in 2018. He put up similar numbers in 2019 when Houston’s Triple-A club moved to Round Rock in 2019.

Houston has yet to formally announce Sneed’s release, though that formality is likely the final step in the process. The Swallows will likely pay some compensation to the Astros in order to release Sneed, who’ll surely get a larger guarantee to pitch in NPB next year than he’d have received as an up-and-down, pre-arbitration member of the Astros’ staff in 2021. The Astros’ 40-man roster now drops to a count of 38 players.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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After a ninth consecutive playoff miss, Phillies owner John Middleton opted to move on from general manager Matt Klentak. Now, two years after Middleton’s infamous “stupid money” comments, the Phillies seem to be putting out signals cautioning against a splashy winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $274MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $96.25MM through 2024
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $31MM through 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Jean Segura, INF: $29.5MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: $23MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2022)
  • Scott Kingery, INF/OF: $19MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; contract also contains club options in 2025-26)
  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of 2022 club option; Herrera is no longer on the 40-man roster)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s been nearly two months since Matt Klentak stepped down as Phillies general manager and accepted a reassignment to another position within the organization, yet we still don’t have any clear indication as to who will take over the reins. President Andy MacPhail, a former general manager of the Twins and Orioles himself, held onto his title amid the team’s front office shuffling, and assistant GM Ned Rice stepped into the GM role on an interim basis.

That pair brings decades of baseball operations experience to the table, but it’s rather befuddling that the next steps remain so unclear. The Phils reportedly gauged interest from Theo Epstein but were rebuffed, as the now-former Cubs president instead prefers to take at least a year away from the game. Former D-backs and Padres GM Josh Byrnes has interviewed, but there’s no indication as to whether he’s being strongly considered by Middleton.

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb suggested in early October that the Phils might wait for MacPhail to retire at the end of the 2021 season before bringing in a hire, but that’s a puzzling approach in and of itself. If the end result of Klentak resigning is that he remains with the organization in a new role while his top lieutenant, Rice, continues to work alongside MacPhail — how much have things truly changed?

Klentak increasingly drew the ire of Phillies fans, with many voicing dissatisfaction regarding the team’s stalled extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now a free agent after rejecting a qualifying offer. That seems like misplaced frustration, frankly, as the final say on whether to pay Realmuto on a long-term arrangement lands with ownership, not the general manager. Over the past several months, most reports out of Philadelphia have suggested that the team is not optimistic about its chances to retain Realmuto.

If Realmuto walks, that seems like a Middleton-driven decision that would have happened regardless of who is in the GM’s chair. Yet at the press conference announcing the changing of the guard in the front office, Middleton almost seemed to endeavor to take credit for approving the Realmuto swap without taking blame for the failure to extend him. “…[M]y position was, I’d be willing to trade Sixto as long as you extend J.T.,” Middleton said at the time. “And if you don’t extend J.T., I wouldn’t trade Sixto.”

There’s a disconnect in those comments, plain and simple. Middleton implies that he held considerable influence over the acquisition of Realmuto but left the matter of an extension solely to his baseball operations outfit. That seems unlikely, and if it’s in fact accurate, that type of inconsistency with regard to autonomy is a failing in and of itself. It’s hard not to wonder if an experienced GM would look on from the outside and be turned off by an owner trying to take credit for the good and shirk responsibility for the bad.

None of this is to say that there weren’t plenty of misfires during Klentak’s time as general manager, of course. The Phillies’ catastrophic bullpen implosion over the past two seasons is glaring, and it seemed no matter what moves the front office made to rectify the situation, the outcome was poor. The signing of Carlos Santana that pushed Rhys Hoskins into an ill-suited left field role clearly did not pay dividends. Jake Arrieta’s three-year deal didn’t work out, either. At the end of the day, a five-year span of no playoff appearances in a big market will be enough to doom any baseball operations leader, as we saw not only in Philadelphia but in Anaheim this winter.

Front office composition aside, however, the bottom line for the Phillies this winter is that they’re not sure who will be catching games for them in 2021. They also have holes at shortstop and, to a lesser extent, in center field. On the pitching side of things, from the back of the rotation to the entirety of the relief corps, questions abound. The Phillies’ ability to strengthen these flaws are dependent on Middleton’s willingness to spend in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, and indications put forth thus far by both the owner and MacPhail have not been encouraging.

“At this time almost every club, honestly, it’s more about reduction of players than it is adding,” MacPhail said in late October (link via The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro). “…But the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even mid term is not very high.” There may be no better indication of the Phillies’ reluctance to spend than the fact that a team with a historically bad bullpen in 2020 allowed Brad Hand to pass through waivers unclaimed at $10MM. (Although, to be fair to the Phils, so did every other club in the game.)

To get a better handle on the Phillies’ outlook in the days and months to come, the payroll as a whole needs to be taken in. The Phils have seven players on guaranteed contracts in 2021 — counting Odubel Herrera, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster but is still owed this year’s salary. That group checks in at a weighty $108.5MM, and the remaining slate of arbitration-eligible players could push the Phils up to nearly $127MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Phillies’ payroll could top $135MM before they make a single addition.

Vince Velasquez and Hector Neris stand out as potential non-tender candidates. Cutting bait on that duo would bring the Phils back into the $125MM range but would also create more holes; Neris has served as the team’s closer in recent seasons, while Velasquez has been a fifth starter despite (at best) inconsistent results.

The Phillies were set to open the 2020 season with a payroll upwards of $186MM, so there’s certainly some breathing room between that mark and this year’s current levels. However, the expectation is that Middleton plans to reduce payroll. There’s no set number that’s been floated, but the assumption clearly should not be that the Phillies will return to those heights in 2021.

For that reason, retaining Realmuto could be a long shot. He’s spoken in the past about advancing the market for catchers, and while it’s nearly impossible to see him topping Joe Mauer’s record eight-year, $184MM contract, he could set his sights on besting Mauer’s average annual value of $23MM. If that’s the case, Realmuto would be an exceptionally steep add for the Phils at this time, even if there’s some backloading of the deal to offset the hit in the early years. Of course, backloading the deal would come with its own complications; the Phils are already paying Harper and Zack Wheeler a combined $49.5MM in 2024, and Middleton may not be keen on locking in upwards of $75MM in salary to three players a whole four years down the road.

Should Realmuto land elsewhere — he’s been connected to the Mets, Blue Jays and Nationals, among other clubs — the market does present alternatives. James McCann and Yadier Molina bring two starting-caliber options to the free-agent pool, and the trade market could feature several names, including manager Joe Girardi’s former Yankees backstop, Gary Sanchez. The Phils are already reported to like McCann as a fallback to Realmuto.

The Phillies’ other question marks on the position-player side of the roster lie up the middle as well. Rookie of the Year finalist Alec Bohm has third base locked down now, and Rhys Hoskins will be back at first base once he’s sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery. Less clear, however, is the shortstop situation now that Didi Gregorius is back on the open market in search of a multi-year deal. Such a contract could come from the Phils, of course, but that again is dependent on Middleton’s tolerance for spending this winter. Jean Segura and Scott Kingery are on hand as potential options at second base and shortstop, although Segura doesn’t profile as a strong defensive option at the position at this point.

If the Phillies do bring in a shortstop — be it Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons or another option — they could play Segura at second base and pair Kingery in center field with Adam Haseley. The versatile Kingery struggled immensely at the plate in 2020, although he had a strong 2019 campaign and may have been severely impacted by a pre-season bout with Covid-19.

Kingery declined to make excuses for his poor showing on multiple occasions early in the year but eventually acknowledged that his overall energy level was not back to normal (link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber). As of mid-August, Kingery was still dealing with repeated shortness of breath and fatigue. It’s easy to imagine a healthier version of Kingery trending back toward 2019’s .258/.315/.474 output, and depending on the extent to which the Phillies plan to reduce payroll, a rebound from him could be one of the keys to their 2021 fate. Kingery was a league-average bat with plus baserunning and average or better glovework at three positions in 2019, after all. Being able to rely on him in center and/or at shortstop could prove pivotal.

If the Phils prefer Kingery/Segura in the middle infield and want to look outside the organization for some outfield help, there are affordable options to pair with Haseley’s lefty bat. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Cameron Maybin are all free agents. Enrique Hernandez has a strong track record against southpaws and could provide cover both in center field and around the infield, making him a nice fit (particularly if Bohm needs to spend time at first base early in the year while Hoskins finishes mending).

In the rotation, the Phillies’ need isn’t so dire. Aaron Nola and Wheeler are a formidable one-two punch, with Zach Eflin serving as a reliable source of innings in the third or fourth spot. Top prospect Spencer Howard struggled in 2020 but is still highly regarded. He’ll get another look next year.

That quartet has the makings of a competitive group, but the trade of Nick Pivetta, the possible non-tender of Velasquez and some struggles from prospects elsewhere in the organization all suggest that the Phils could benefit from a low-cost veteran to round out the group. The best course of action could simply be to see which veterans are left standing and willing to accept a low-base deal late in the winter. If they’re willing to spend more for some mid-rotation innings, names like Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Quintana are all available.

Looking at the Philadelphia bullpen, there’s little sign of immediate help for a group that in 2020 was one of the least-effective units in recent history. Several names are already gone — Brandon Workman, David Phelps, Jose Alvarez and Tommy Hunter are free agents. Heath Hembree was outrighted.

While the early market for free-agent starters has been strong, the relief market increasingly looks like an area where the “bloodbath” feared by many agents could manifest. Not only did Hand go unclaimed on waivers, but several seemingly reasonable club options on relievers were instead bought out. The expected glut of non-tenders could add another couple dozen relievers to the market.

For a Phillies club that doesn’t want to spend money but badly needs to add multiple arms to the relief corps, that could prove to be an ideal situation. The Phils could opt to spend big on one reliever and add several cost-effective names to round out the group, or more evenly distribute whatever resources they’re allotted to diversify risk and add several steady, competent arms to the bullpen.

The Phillies have underachieved for years now, and with several glaring holes on the roster and signals that they don’t plan to aggressively fill said needs, they could be in for more of the same. That said, this is still a group with a very talented core. The combination of Harper, Nola, Bohm, Hoskins and Wheeler is a strong start to any roster. If the Phils can shed some salary in creative ways or if Middleton changes course with a more aggressive financial approach, it’s possible to see this team contending.

Flawed as they may have been over the past three seasons, the Phillies have only narrowly missed the postseason each year. The NL East is more competitive than ever now that a young Marlins club is on the rise, but there’s enough talent in the Phillies’ core group to fuel a competitive unit next year if MacPhail/Rice or a new general manager push the right buttons.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/2/20

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The latest minor league moves from around baseball…

  • The Cubs signed outfielder Michael Hermosillo to a minors contract, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Hermosillo has seen big league action in each of the last three seasons, hitting .188/.288/.287 over 118 plate appearances with the Angels.  He can play all three outfield positions, so he’ll provide the Cubs with some depth, and Hermosillo also might yet have some untapped hitting potential as he approaches his 26th birthday.  At the Triple-A level, Hermosillo has a solid .261/.344/.478 career slash line over 748 PA.
  • The Athletics signed catcher Francisco Pena to a minor league deal, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter).  Pena will receive a guaranteed $600K salary if he reaches Oakland’s MLB roster.  The 31-year-old backstop hasn’t appeared in the majors since he played 58 games for the Cardinals in 2018, which comprises the bulk of his career big league experience.  Pena has hit .216/.249/.311 over 202 PA for the Cardinals, Orioles, and Royals from 2014-18, and has spent the last two seasons in the Giants and Reds organizations.

Oscar Colas Declared Free Agent By NPB’s SoftBank Hawks

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The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have declared Oscar Colas a free agent, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (Twitter links).  The move ends months of controversy between the club, Nippon Professional Baseball, and Colas’ representatives over amount of team control the Hawks held over Colas as per the terms of his original contract.

The next step for Colas is an application for MLB free agency.  Once this is granted, Colas will be eligible to be signed under standard international signing rules, and will in all likelihood be available when the next int’l signing window opens on January 15.  As a reminder, this is the 2020-21 window that would have normally began last July 2, except the signing period was pushed back due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sanchez writes that Colas’ representatives are already working to arrange a scouting showcase for their client, a 22-year-old who holds some potential as a two-way player.  Colas’ official pitching experience is limited to 3 1/3 innings in the Serie Nacional (Cuba’s top league) during the 2018-19 season, though he is said to possess a fastball that can hit 95mph.

There is much more data on Colas as a batter, as he hit .305/.381/.487 over 273 plate appearances in the Serie Nacional, and then posted an .825 OPS over 21 PA for the Hawks in 2019.  (Colas also hit well for the Hawks’ minor league squad in the Western League.)  In the field, Colas has played both first base and as a corner outfielder during his brief pro career.

Assuming no snags in his paperwork and clearances, Colas is a very intriguing entry into the 2020-21 international signing market.  Many teams have already committed large chunks of their int’l signing pools to other players, so the market for Colas may be determined by how much remaining pool space certain teams have available.  Pool funds also cannot be traded during this year’s signing period.

NC Dinos To Post Sung-Bum Na

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TODAY: Na won’t be officially posted for a few more days, as to Jeeho Yoo reports that MLB has asked the Dinos for more medical documentation.  Specifically, Dinos general manager Jong-Moon Kim said the league wants more information about Na’s 2019 knee surgery, including a report from the surgeon who performed the procedure.  There isn’t expected to be any major obstacle to Na’s posting, as Kim said “I’ve been told by the KBO this is just the routine and par for the course.”

NOVEMBER 30: The NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization have asked the league to post outfielder/designated hitter Sung-Bum Na for Major League teams, Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports. Once the posting is made official by the two leagues, MLB clubs will have 30 days to negotiate with Na. Yoo reported earlier this year that Na had hired the Boras Corporation to represent him during the posting process.

Na, 31, just wrapped up an outstanding effort with the KBO champion Dinos, hitting .324/.390/.596 with 34 homers, 37 doubles and a pair of triples in 584 plate appearances. (Those interested can check out some 2020 highlights from Na on YouTube). He did strike out at a career-high 25.3 percent clip in that time against an 8.3 percent walk rate, although the career 21.3 percent strikeout rate he carried into the 2020 season is a bit more palatable.

Na has been an above-average hitter in KBO since his second year in the league and a star-level performer for much of that time. In 4140 career plate appearances since debuting as a 23-year-old, he’s batted .317/.384/.542 with 179 home runs, 244 doubles and 25 triples.

Early in his career, Na was a center fielder, playing the position on a full-time basis for the Dinos in 2013-14. He moved to right field for the 2015 campaign, and that’s been his primary defensive home since, although he’s still logged some occasional time in center — most recently in 2019 when he started 18 games there. However, Na’s 2019 season was cut short by a severe knee injury that resulted in him being placed on a stretcher and taken off the field in an ambulance, as he told ESPN’s Marly Rivera earlier this year. He underwent surgery and spent seven months rehabbing from that procedure.

Fresh off that knee surgery, Na spent more time as a designated hitter in 2020 than ever before, logging only 50 of the 130 games he played in right field. He also attempted a career-low four stolen bases; in his last full season in 2018, Na was 15-for-17 in that department. All of that is certainly understandable for a player coming off a major knee surgery, but those are also red flags that hamper his earning power with MLB clubs — even if Na enjoyed the most productive season of his career at the plate.

Sports Info Solutions’ Ted Baarda recently profiled Na (and a few other KBO hitters), praising his plus left-handed power and ability to consistently hit for average. Baarda notes that Na was a pitcher in college and still has a plus arm in right field, but he also writes that Na’s range and athleticism both took a step a back in 2020 following the surgery. The Boras camp will surely push that as a one-year aberration. That may well be the case, but it could still be a tough sell for MLB clubs. Back in May, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser ranked Na fifth among KBO “prospects” who could plausibly jump to the Majors in the near future. Glaser touted Na’s pull power and throwing arm but noted some struggles against offspeed pitches.

During Na’s 30-day posting window, he’ll be able to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. In addition to the actual contract paid to Na, the team that eventually signs him will also owe a posting fee to the Dinos. That fee would be equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. That fee is in addition to the contract — not deducted from the contract itself.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Re-Sign Eric Jokisch; Part Ways With Addison Russell, Jake Brigham

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TODAY: Jokisch has re-signed with the Heroes on a one-year, $900K contract (another tip of the hat to MyKBO’s Dan Kurtz).

NOVEMBER 29: The Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes will not pursue new contracts with infielder Addison Russell or right-hander Jake Brigham, the team announced (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). However, the Heroes are planning to try and re-sign southpaw Eric Jokisch, Kurtz relays.

Russell, 27 in January, is the most well-known of the three. A former top prospect and the Cubs’ starting shortstop during their 2016 World Series season, Russell served a 2018 domestic violence suspension after former wife Melisa Reidy detailed serious allegations of abuse. Between the suspension and dwindling on-field productivity, he didn’t find a particularly robust market upon being non-tendered by Chicago last offseason. The Heroes brought Russell aboard in June, but he mustered an underwhelming .254/.317/.336 line with just two home runs across 271 plate appearances.

Brigham only saw brief big league action with the 2015 Braves but had spent the past four seasons with the Heroes. After posting a 2.96 ERA in 2019, the 32-year-old put up a 3.62 mark this past season. Brigham’s strikeout rate improved to a career-best level in 2020, but his walk rate has gotten progressively higher during each KBO season.

Jokisch was far and away the Heroes’ most productive pitcher last season. He led the team with 159.2 innings of 2.14 ERA ball, winning the league’s ERA title. It’s little surprise the Seoul-based club wants to keep him in the fold, but the 31-year-old has also caught the attention of some MLB teams and could consider a return stateside.

AL Notes: Twins, Cruz, Astros, Reddick, Rays, Indians

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The Twins and free-agent designated hitter Nelson Cruz are in “a staring contest where neither side is blinking,” Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes. As a 40-year-old coming off yet another great season, Cruz is looking to secure the best possible payday, though he’s in a difficult position because there is still no word on whether the National League will have a DH in 2021. As such, it’s no surprise that Cruz is taking his time on the open market, even though he did say in the past that he would like to remain a Twin. Cruz put up a phenomenal .308/.394/.626 line with 57 home runs in 735 plate appearances in Minnesota from 2019-20.

  • Free-agent outfielder Josh Reddick seemingly said goodbye to the Astros on Instagram on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays. “Thank you to the Astros, my teammates, coaches, staff and of course the FANS,” Reddick posted. “Houson will always be special to me. From winning a World Series, to getting engaged and starting a family here and everything in between, I loved playing here and look forward to doing it again.” The Astros could still re-sign Reddick, but that has “never seemed likely,” Rome writes. Reddick joined the Astros on a four-year, $52MM contract before 2017 and proceeded to record a respectable .275/.331/.425 slash with 48 home runs in 1,787 plate appearances as a member of the club.
  • Rays righty Nick Bitsko underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a labrum issue, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Bitsko will miss time in 2021 as a result, though it’s unclear how long he’ll sit out, per Topkin. The 18-year-old was the 24th overall pick in last June’s draft.
  • Indians right-handed reliever Cam Hill announced that he was involved in a car crash Monday, Zack Meisel of The Athletic relays. Hill suffered a wrist injury that required surgery, but the 26-year-old indicated that he and everyone else involved in the crash came out OK. He suggested that he’ll be ready for next season. Hill made his major league debut in 2020 and posted a 4.91 ERA/5.43 FIP with 7.85 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 across 18 1/3 innings.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals never really got on track in 2020, perhaps because the shortened season didn’t allow them time for the type of turn-around that defined their 2019 championship run.  With a number of key members of that title team heading into free agency, the Nats will look to reload for a return to the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Washington took care of some early business in re-signing Josh Harrison before the free agent market even opened, bringing the veteran utilityman back on a one-year, $1MM deal.  Between retaining Harrison and also adding former Diamondback Yasmany Tomas on a minor league contract for the first base mix, the Nats have taken steps to address an infield that could potentially be quite similar or quite different to 2020’s collection of talent.

We know Trea Turner will be at shortstop, and that Starlin Castro will return from a broken wrist to assume another everyday role, likely at second base.  Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia will both continue to get looks at the MLB level, though Kieboom struggled badly in his first extended taste of Major League action and Garcia didn’t hit much better while filling for Castro at second base.  Harrison provides bench depth at multiple positions, Tomas or rookie Jake Noll could factor into first base, and it’s probably safe to assume that the Nats and longtime first baseman Ryan Zimmerman will explore another one-year pact after Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season.

There’s certainly some room for growth here, which is why the Nationals have reportedly checked in on two major names in DJ LeMahieu and Kris Bryant.  Both players have been Nats targets in the past, though LeMahieu has a much bigger price tag now than he did in his previous trip through free agency in the 2018-19 offseason, and landing Bryant could require some tricky negotiating with the Cubs.  With Bryant coming off a down year, only one year of club control remaining and an $18.6MM projected arbitration salary in that final year, Chicago’s asking price for Bryant has surely lowered since last offseason.  But, these same concerns could also lead the Nationals to prefer LeMahieu as a longer-term answer.

Of course, the x-factor is whether or not the Nats will spend on higher-priced talent, as recent reports suggest players like LeMahieu or Bryant might not be on the radar.  It isn’t yet known whether GM Mike Rizzo will have the financial resources to make any significant additions, or if the front office will just have to avoid the top shelf in offseason shopping endeavors.

All of Washington’s free agents account for over $40MM in salary coming off the books, and the Nats also save in pure 2021 dollars since so much of the salaries owed to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are deferred.  That said, D.C. has a projected payroll of just under $170MM for 2021 with a luxury tax number roughly $163.9MM, so ownership may not want to stretch that significant budget much further.  One would imagine the Nationals also still want to set aside future payroll space for potential long-term extensions with Turner and Juan Soto, and the Nats will likely have some conversations with Scherzer about his future as he enters his final year under contract.

Until we get more of an idea about what the team is willing to spend, thoughts of acquiring LeMahieu, Bryant, or perhaps J.T. Realmuto may have to go on the backburner.  That said, the unsettled nature of Washington’s position player mix gives Rizzo some flexibility in looking for upgrades.

The Nats have the freedom to acquire a one-position type — hypothetically, let’s say Kolten Wong at second base — to lock down a single position and go from there, or they could give manager Dave Martinez even more options for late-game maneuvering by adding other multi-positional players.  While Harrison is already back in the fold, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Nationals looked to re-sign another of its veteran free agents (i.e. Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brock Holt) to further add depth.

The outfield also represents an area of need, as the Nats declined Adam Eaton’s option and opened up a hole in either left or right field.  Soto will probably remain in his customary left field spot, though the superstar has played some right field and could change positions if the Nats landed a solid left fielder.  Victor Robles remains the incumbent center fielder after a bout of COVID-19 led to a brutal year both offensively and defensively, and the Nationals can only hope that a healthy Robles can rediscover his 2019 form.

It might behoove the Nats to find an outfielder with center field capability just in case Robles struggles again, though Andrew Stevenson might be tabbed for a larger role after posting big numbers in limited at-bats in both 2019 and 2020.  Depending on how big D.C. was willing or able to go with adding outfield help, acquiring Michael Brantley, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Joc Pederson would make some sense (and give Washington another left-handed bat), or the club could opt for a part-timer to share playing time with Stevenson and Harrison.

The presence of a DH spot in National League lineups in 2021 would also help Washington in finding another hitter, allowing for even more time-sharing and position-shifting.  Someone like a Brantley (or a Marcell Ozuna, at the higher end of the market) would be even more of a fit for the District if the universal designated hitter was a sure thing, though a league decision on that front doesn’t appear to be imminent.

Let’s turn to the rotation, where the biggest question is how Strasburg will rebound.  The right-hander tossed only five innings in 2020 due to hand problems that eventually resulted in carpal tunnel syndrome surgery, thus getting his seven-year, $215MM contract off to an ominous start in its first year.  Scherzer and Patrick Corbin were also both more solid in 2020 than their usual excellent selves, and the Nationals surely hope that this dip in form was just temporary and not a sign of decline.

Since Anibal Sanchez’s option wasn’t exercised, Erick Fedde, Austin Voth, Joe Ross (who opted out of the 2020 season) and Wil Crowe are all in the mix for the fourth and fifth starter’s jobs.  Particularly since there might be some doubts about the top three starters, the Nationals will certainly look into adding a veteran pitcher to help deepen the rotation.  Trevor Bauer is probably too pricey a fit, but since Bauer might be the only free agent arm who could command a major multi-year deal, D.C. has its pick of several free agents that might require three years at the most.

Names like Masahiro Tanaka or Jake Odorizzi represent the upper tier of remaining available pitchers in the non-Bauer class, and this is another area that represents some fluidity for the Nationals.  If they don’t want to spend a ton of resources on pitching, they could try to find essentially the next Anibal Sanchez — a veteran coming off a good season and with perhaps a couple of red flags on the resume that the Nats don’t feel are a big concern (or can be overlooked).

The bullpen continued to be an issue for Washington, and after investing in Daniel Hudson and Will Harris last winter, the Nats might not want to make more big expenditures on relief pitching.  The team could opt to mostly stand pat and hope that Hudson pitches better as the preferred closing option, or perhaps look out for other closer-capable free agents, or perhaps elevate an internal candidate like Tanner Rainey into more high-leverage moments.  D.C. has already re-signed Aaron Barrett to a minors contract and added minor leaguer Sam Clay on an MLB deal, but some more tinkering (left-handed relief is a particular need) is sure to come as the Nationals try to finally fix their relief corps.

With all the early focus on the Braves’ free agent pitching signings, the Marlins’ hiring of Kim Ng as general manager, the Mets’ expected splurge under new owner Steve Cohen, and the Phillies’ front office machinations, the Nationals have largely flown under the radar this winter.  But, with so many needs around the diamond, the Nats could end up being one of the offseason’s busier teams.  Given Rizzo’s track record of success in both major and seemingly minor acquisitions, possibilities abound for the Nationals in the coming months.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/1/20

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With the non-tender deadline on the horizon tomorrow, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance. In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections. Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market. Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

  • Athletics second baseman Tony Kemp will get $1.05MM over one year, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays.
  • The Rockies announced that they have re-signed righty Jairo Diaz to a one-year pact. It’s worth $1.1MM, Feinsand tweets.
  • The Phillies and righty reliever Seranthony Dominguez have a one-year, $727,500 deal, according to Feinsand. Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of June, so he might not pitch at all in 2021.
  • The Athletics and utility player Chad Pinder reached a one-year, $2.275MM deal, per Nightengale. Pinder has two seasons of team control left.
  • The Orioles and catcher Pedro Severino agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.825MM, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  There was some speculation that Severino could be a non-tender candidate, though he has posted pretty decent numbers over two seasons as Baltimore’s primary catcher.  Severino is controllable through the 2023 season.
  • The Nationals and right-hander Joe Ross agreed to a one-year, $1.5MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  This is a match of the salary Ross and the Nats had agreed on for the 2020 season, but Ross decided to opt out back in June.  This was Ross’ third year of arbitration eligibility, and is now expected to return and compete for a job in Washington’s rotation in 2021.
  • The Royals agreed to one-year deals with righties Jesse Hahn and Jakob Junis and outfielder Franchy Cordero, according to Feinsand and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).  Hahn signed for $1.75MM in guaranteed money with another $350K available in incentives.  Junis will rake in $1.7MM. Cordero will earn $800K in his first arbitration-eligible year.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Athletics and righty Burch Smith agreed to a one-year deal worth $705K, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  The 30-year-old Smith allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 frames with the A’s in 2020. That was a solid showing for Smith to carry into his first trip through the arb process, though he carried a career 6.57 ERA in 135 1/3 frames into the 2020 season. The A’s can control Smith through 2023.
  • The Rockies agreed to a one-year, $1.2MM deal with catcher Elias Diaz, per Nightengale (Twitter link). The contract contains another $300K in available incentives.  The 30-year-old looked like a clear non-tender candidate after posting an ugly .235/.288/.353 slash with lackluster framing marks and just a 1-for-8 effort in throwing out base thieves, but the Rockies must remain hopeful he can return to his 2018 level of performance. Diaz is controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.
  • Right-hander Jacob Barnes and the Mets agreed to a one-year deal worth $750K, Nightengale tweets. Barnes, claimed off waivers back in October, was a quality reliever in Milwaukee from 2016-18 but has seen his results crater over the past two seasons. From 2019-20, he’s posted a 6.75 ERA over 50 2/3 innings. Barnes has averaged 10 strikeouts per nine frames in that time but also averaged 4.6 walks and 1.42 homers as well. Barnes is controllable through 2022.

Red Sox Interested In Corey Kluber

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The starter-needy Red Sox are showing interest in free-agent right-hander Corey Kluber, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kluber, who’s coming off an injury-wrecked season, could start throwing bullpen sessions this month after suffering a Grade 2 teres major strain, Morosi adds.

As a two-time Cy Young winner who fell on difficult times during the previous two seasons, the soon-to-be 35-year-old Kluber looks like an intriguing buy-low candidate. The former Indian missed almost all of 2019 after suffering a fractured forearm, and this past season’s shoulder problems with the Rangers limited him to one appearance and one inning. The Rangers then declined Kluber’s $18MM option for 2021 in favor of a $1MM buyout.

Despite Kluber’s recent hardships, it isn’t hard to see the appeal. The last time he was healthy, in 2018, Kluber fired 215 innings of 2.89 ERA/3.12 FIP ball with 9.29 K/9 and 1.42 BB/9. His 92 mph-plus fastball velocity hasn’t abandoned him since then, so it would be easy for any team to dream on Kluber returning to form on an affordable, short-term contract.

The Red Sox need all the help they can get in their rotation, as ace Chris Sale is still working back from Tommy John surgery and No. 2 Eduardo Rodriguez missed all of 2020 because of issues stemming from COVID-19 and myocarditis. Without those two around, Boston’s rotation sputtered to a 5.34 ERA/5.50 FIP. The team’s top healthy candidates slated to return include Nathan Eovaldi, Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta, but no member of that trio has a track record that’s nearly as impressive as Kluber’s.

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