Universal DH Could Revitalize Former NL MVP
If and when the baseball season resumes in 2020, it’s expected to do so with the oft-debated universal DH implemented. With than in mind, we’re running through each NL team’s DH options . Today, we’re looking at the innovative Milwaukee Brewers, who’ve demonstrated their willingness to get creative with personnel under manager Craig Counsell.
Counsell’s club looks pretty well-positioned to adapt to the rule change, though it seems like they won’t need to rely on just a single player to handle the DH duties; rather, they’ve got a host of capable players at their disposal, and should be able to adjust their lineup on a matchup basis.
The first name that comes to mind for Milwaukee is Ryan Braun. With the addition of Avisail Garcia, Braun has likely been pushed out of a regular role in the outfield. And with Justin Smoak on the roster, he probably won’t see too much time at first base, either—though a platoon is possible. So it make sense that Braun should get first dibs on DH at-bats in Milwaukee, and it’s a timely development for him given his fall down the defensive spectrum. He’s still a solid hitter (.849 OPS last year), but the rise of Christian Yelich and acquisition of Garcia has rendered him somewhat marginal in the Brewers’ plans.
Keston Hiura, who’s encountered concerns about his defense in his brief career, would be a fine DH on days where he needs a rest from the field. But the new rule shouldn’t impeach on his role as the everyday second baseman; despite the defensive concerns, it would probably be unwise to abandon hope for him as a passable defender so early in his career—especially if the universal DH doesn’t wind up a permanent change.
Jedd Gyorko is maybe the next-best option after Braun, though he frankly doesn’t offer much that Braun can’t do himself. Both he and Braun are righties, which isn’t a bad thing, but both perform considerably better against left-handed pitchers. Logan Morrison was brought aboard on a minor league deal, so he lurks as a possible lefty DH candidate. But the fact of the matter is that Morrison is more than two years removed from reliable production, failing to muster even a .700 OPS in either of the previous two seasons. Still, depending on the maximum roster allowance this year, Morrison might be worth rostering in a pinch.
Otherwise, Omar Narvaez is noted for his reputation as one of the stronger offensive catchers in baseball, but he lacks the defensive chops to make him a top-flight catcher. On days when Manny Piña suits up behind the dish, it might not hurt to give Narvaez, a lefty hitter, some run in the DH role. He tallied an .813 OPS last year, which is right about on par with the other Brewers we’ve mentioned, so Counsell could still enjoy Narvaez’s offensive output without sacrificing anything on the defensive end. Narvaez should get plenty of looks against right-handed pitching, which makes up for some of the aforementioned overlap between Braun’s and Gyorko’s skillsets.
In addition, the Brewers have a host of versatile infield options that can rotate in and out of the lineup. Between Gyorko, Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, and Luis Urias, the Brewers accumulated a number of utility-type players in the winter. Those acquisitions might seem a bit redundant, but they should combine to offer much-appreciated versatility. In a vacuum, none of those names are particularly ideal candidates to fill the DH role, but their availability will allow Counsell to optimize his defensive alignment while maintaining his offensive firepower. Neither Gyorko nor Sogard owns a particularly robust defensive track record, so look for them to assume DH duties as needed.
All things considered, the Brewers look to be in good shape should MLB move forward with the universal DH, and they could get creative with the way they deploy their catchers and infielders. Ryan Braun will get his fair share of at-bats as probably the best bench bat on the roster, but others like Jedd Gyorko, Eric Sogard, Omar Narvaez, and even Keston Hiura could get a crack. If anyone falters, the Brewers will have a wealth of alternatives to whom they can turn.
This post is the latest in an ongoing series on MLBTR in which we examine every National League team’s designated hitter options. Previously, we looked at the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Braves.
Braves Have All The Pieces To Build A Solid DH
With the DH likely headed to the National League in 2020, the Braves may have a few more at-bats to spread around. As a team, the Braves finished 2019 with a 102 wRC+, the 4th-highest mark in the National League, though they managed to turn that production into 855 runs, fewer than only the Nationals and Dodgers. To repeat at those levels, Atlanta has the difficult task of replacing the production from Bringer of Rain Josh Donaldson, who joined the Twins after putting up 37 bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, and an all-around stellar 6.0 rWAR season in 2019. A regular DH should help.
Atlanta boasts a good deal of depth to utilize in a potential designated hitter role. For starters, there’s the question of whether Johan Camargo becomes a four-down back at third base. Austin Riley may eventually take over the hot corner, but if he doesn’t, there are probably some DH at-bats to go his way. Riley was slated to spend some time at Triple-A, but if there is no Triple-A, the Braves may just as soon bring his light-tower power to the big-league level. Riley definitely struggled closing out his rookie year, but power (.471 SLG and .245 ISO) isn’t the problem. Riley needs to close the gap on his 5.4% BB% and 36.4 K%, but given his youth and potential, he’s probably the guy the Braves want to claim the DH spot (if he doesn’t claim third base outright).
If Riley doesn’t improve the other aspects of his game, then he’s essentially Adam Duvall, another candidate for DH at-bats. Duvall, 31, has a career .229 ISO and .461 SLG at the big league level, numbers that could land him in the middle of the order if it weren’t for other drawbacks to his game. In 130 plate appearances last season, Duvall put together a solid 121 wRC+ showing by hitting .267/.315/.567. That output was bolstered by an absurd .300 ISO. He also had some good luck, as his .306 BABIP was a fair bit higher than his career mark of .271. Duvall could certainly see some time at DH, especially if they want to save Riley for a more stable playing environment, but he has gone just 1 for 3 in posting a wRC+ over 100 when given more than 400 plate appearances. In a short season, however, Duvall has the type of short-burst approach that could perform.
The safer option is to use the DH to rest their four-man outfield of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna, and Nick Markakis. Acuna will be in there every day, but he can move around the outfield and would probably benefit from a DHing day every now and again. Ozuna and Markakis complement each other perfectly in some ways, with Ozuna the right-handed power bat and Markakis the lefty on-base option, and they can both handle themselves in the field. There’s no reason both shouldn’t be in the lineup, however, especially if Inciarte is healthy enough to spend the better part of most weeks manning centerfield. Inciarte, 29, played just 65 games last season, but he’s a true difference-maker with the glove when healthy (21 OAA in 2018, 20 OAA in 2017). Assuming health, all four of Acuna, Inciarte, Ozuna, and Markakis should find their names on the lineup card most days.
With Acuna taking his spot in right, Markakis might be the guy who gets the most at-bats as the ostensible extra bat. But when southpaws take the hill, the Braves can rest some combination of Markakis/Inciarte while getting Duvall or Riley some run. Both mashed lefties in 2019. Say they go with a straight left-right platoon: Markakis hit .298/.371/.446 vs. righties in 2019, and Duvall (small sample alert) hit .333/.386/.744 vs lefties. Even take Duvall’s career splits versus lefties (.240/.318/.473), and a leveraged platoon of Markakis and Duvall makes for a pretty potent designated hitter.
This post continues a recent series from MLBTR looking at designated hitters options for each team in the National League. Thus far we’ve covered the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals, as well as the remaining free agent options.
MLB Releases Medical Protocols Proposal To Players
Major League Baseball has provided the MLBPA with a 67-page document with proposed protocols for returning to play, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich. The document covers testing, gameplay conditions, spring training rules, intake processes, and more, an outline of which is laid out by Rosenthal and Drellich in their piece.
The “operations manual” is an important step in launching a 2020 baseball season. Obviously, the Players’ Union still must approve, the logistics for medical and auxiliary staff must be handled, facilities must be prepared, and there remains any number of blockades that might derail a return to play. Still, it appears as if Major League Baseball has done the legwork to answer many of the operational questions facing the league’s return to action.
A central topic covered in these pages appears to be continued social distancing for players. It certainly makes for an interesting “team” experience, with communal dining and any socializing beyond family members discouraged (but not, it seems, disallowed). Masks may be utilized everywhere except on the field, and players will do their best to maintain 6 feet of distance even in the dugouts, which the article explains, could extend into the stands, should the extra space be necessary. Players have begun to display their personalities with expressive shows of emotion and team celebrations more and more so in recent years (“let the kids play”), and it will certainly be interesting to see how players can continue to be themselves and form team bonds/personalities in such a restrictive social environment.
The most pertinent issues here relate to player testing, of which many protocols have been laid out, including the process for bringing players into spring training, traveling with the team, and what happens if a player does test positive for COVID-19. The league has also outlined ways to limit potential exposure and spread. The minutiae are also attended to here, with items like “Communal water and sports drink coolers/jugs are prohibited” and “Dugout phones will be disinfected after each use”. Spring Training facilities, meanwhile, will limit teams to 50 players, per Rosenthal and Drellich. It’s important to remember, too, that there is sure to be much more detail in the full document. Presumably, all the pertinent details will be released to the public once an official agreement has been reached between the league and players.
All in all, there’s a great deal of coverage here and it’s well worth reading Rosenthall and Drellich’s piece in full. As we continue to ponder the possibility of if baseball can resume in 2020, this document attempts to cover much of the territory for how play might resume. The next step will be seeing how the Players’ Union reacts to it.
Quick Hits: Latest On The Impact Of Coronavirus Around The Game
As players and owners work on negotiating a financial accord to allow for the start of play, opinions have trickled in from all reaches of the baseball-sphere with personal stances about how best to reboot gameplay. After Blake Snell set off a bit of a firestorm with his concerns about returning to the field, many players have chimed in to support the lefty hurler. Obviously, many players are justifiably concerned about what gameplay would mean for their safety and the safety of their families. No one understands this as much as Yoan Moncada, whose 1-year-old daughter was recently hospitalized. She’s doing better now, and Moncada, despite the scare, is ready to return to play should that become a possibility, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Van Schouwen provides a quote from Moncada, who said, “[My family is] concerned, as everybody is. But if the conditions are safe, they’re going to be good with it. But it is a concern no matter what.” Obviously, everyone has been affected in some form or fashion by this pandemic, and players face difficult personal decisions ahead before returning to play. Of course, COVID-19 has hurt not just the players and owners…
- While most of the focus has remained on the league’s attempts to return to the playing field, the consequences of the shutdown are hitting home for many professionals in the field. The Reds, Rays, and Marlins have announced furloughs that are to begin in June, and the latest from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) has the Angels among the teams considering the same. Officially, the Angels are still on the fence. It is nonetheless an unfortunate and troubling development for those involved. Hopefully, some of the larger market franchises will be better equipped to weather the storm for their employees.
- Beyond the question of will-they-or-won’t-they play a 2020 season, there are ancillary questions that need answering in the event of a shortened 2020 season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post runs through a whole host of those issues that will require answers at some point. Among Sherman’s inquiries are topics ranging from a potential trade deadline to drug testing to the practical concerns of the games themselves. Baseball is in a better position than heavy-contact sports like basketball and football, but the game still cannot be played with players keeping a 6-foot distance from one another. It helps that the primary action takes place between a batter and pitcher standing 60 feet and 6 inches apart, but there is plenty of potential for in-game contact, as well as the mere fact of shuffling 26-man rosters from stadium to stadium together.
- The Red Sox will be able to resume play at Fenway Park this season according to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh. There are, of course, a number of conditions to meet before play resumes at Fenway. For instance, fans will not be allowed in attendance, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. There will also be safety measures that the city of Boston must sign off on before play resumes. Still, it may give players a welcome sense of familiarity to be able to play in their home ballparks, even without fans in the seats. The number of teams that will be able to resume play in their home parks remains up in the air for now, though that does seem to be the goal for most teams.
Universal DH Would Allow Nationals To Reboot Their World Series Approach
With the DH likely headed to the National League, at least for 2020, we’re going over each NL roster to find their best and most likely candidates to reap the rewards of the extra at-bats. We’ve already looked at the Cardinals and Reds from the Central, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks out West, as well as some free agent options still available. Let’s dip our toes into the NL East, and what better place to start than with the defending World Series champs: the Washington Nationals.
If there’s a team ready for post-coronavirus baseball, it’s the Nats. Last we saw of the Nationals, they were stomping the Astros on Houston’s turf en route to becoming the first team in history to win a World Series with four road wins. The Nats floundered with NL rules, scoring one run per game in front of their home crowd – but with Howie Kendrick at designated hitter, Dave Martinez‘s club cannot be beat. They’ve proven they can win with their fans watching from home and their pitchers keeping a safe distance from the batters’ box.
Obviously, even the seven most high-pressure games in baseball is a poor stand-in for large sample data, and those games alone don’t suggest much of anything at all about how the Nats will actually transition to the universal DH. That said, Howie Kendrick remains their likeliest DH candidate, and that bodes well for Washington’s offense. Being able to let Kendrick DH most days should loosen Martinez’s strickly regimented rest schedule for his 36-year-old utility slugger. Given the discipline Martinez showed in limiting a healthy Kendrick to 70 starts last season – even as he put up a .344/.395/.572 line – it’s unlikely Kendrick suits up on an everyday basis. But two years removed from Achilles surgery in a shortened season with a DH: that might be the recipe for an everyday Howie Kendrick.
There could do a flip side to a shortened season, however, such as fewer rest days or stacked doubleheaders, so the Nats will need other options beyond Kendrick. Luckily, Washington has other options on the roster beyond its NLCS MVP, and if they want to station Kendrick in the field a time or two a week, he can capably man first, second, or even third.
In terms of alternative, Eric Thames should be liberally deployed against right-handers. Thames joins the roster in place of Matt Adams, who shouldered much of the first-base burden against tough righties last season. Beyond serving as injury insurance for Adam Eaton in right, that’s the role Thames should step into in Washington. With an extra bat in the lineup, the former KBO star ought to find himself in the lineup against right-handers most days, whether at first base, right field, or DH. Coming off a 25-homer season in which he slugged .529 against righties, he’s a weapon in the right spot.
As in 2019, the Nats will play a three-man game at first base, with no less than Mr. National himself taking up that third slot. Ryan Zimmerman should slot in for Thames or Kendrick on occasion against righties, but expect to find him in the lineup while Thames comes off the bench against lefties. Zim’s numbers last season could be construed as a vet nearing his last legs (.257/.314/.415), but the problem wasn’t his legs: it was his feet. Plantar fasciitis slowed Zimmerman for most of the season, but he came up with some big hits in the postseason, and the extra time to rest and recuperate this offseason should benefit the long-time National
The final consideration for the Nats’ DH spot is this: if top prospect Carter Kieboom starts the season in the minors, Asdrubal Cabrera will man third base. But if the Nats deem Kieboom ready from the jump, then Cabrera could cycle through the DH role a bit as well. Cabrera was excellent after joining the Nats in 2019, finishing the year with a total line of .260/.342/.441 with 18 home runs and 91 driven in. For what it’s worth, Cabrera reached base at a higher rate while batting right-handed last year (.357 OBP to .337 OBP), but he slugged better while hitting from the left side (.452 SLG to .410 SLG).
If indeed the National League plays with a DH this season, Dave Martinez will juggle the role as he did with his veterans’ playing time in 2019. With the Kendrick/Thames/Zimmerman triumvirate time-sharing at-bats between first base and DH, the Nats may need the extra oomph from having two of the three in the lineup up every day to help offset the loss of Anthony Rendon. If nothing else, the Nats proved in the World Series they could thrive living the American League lifestyle. Soon, they may soon get the chance to prove it for a full (shortened) season.
Central Notes: Twins, Bryant, Mize, Reds
Let’s check in on a few teams from the game’s Central divisions…
- The Twins signed injured left-hander Rich Hill in December with the expectation he’d miss a large part of the season. That was before the coronavirus pandemic ran amok, though, and now the Twins might get a full season (if there is one) out of Hill. The 40-year-old, who’s still recovering from the primary revision surgery he underwent in November , told Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, “(I’ve) been able to make the most out of the situation so I’m right where I should be as far as rehab progression-wise, so if we do have a season, I should be ready to go when we kick off something of a spring training.” That means the Twins could get an entire season out of a hurler who has been one of the most effective starters in the majors on a per-inning basis since his out-of-nowhere breakout in 2015. Dating back to then, Hill has combined for a 2.91 ERA with 10.67 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9 in 466 1/3 frames as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics and Dodgers.
- Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2021 season. In theory, a shortened or canceled 2020 campaign could have a negative effect on his market if he does reach free agency, but agent Scott Boras doesn’t expect it to damage Bryant or any of the other star players who could be available then. “For the players who are the great players — because there’s always only a few great players — I don’t think it’s going to have anywhere near the impact,” Boras told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago, “because those great players are somebody you would sign for 10 years, and you can defer the cost. You just backload the contracts. You can do things with long-term contracts; you could wait for better times but still get the player for today.”
- Righty Casey Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, may be the best prospect in the Detroit organization. But with a minor league campaign unlikely to happen, Mize could miss out on further professional seasoning this year. So what’s the solution? Well, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com makes a case that the Tigers should just put him in their rotation this season. Doing so would burn a year of service time, and it’s unlikely Mize would help make the Tigers a playoff-caliber team even in a shortened season, but there’s no denying he is one of the most talented players in the organization. Mize spent the majority of last year in Double-A, where he pitched to a 3.20 ERA with 8.69 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 78 2/3 innings.
- The Reds will start temporarily furloughing employees – less than 25 percent of them – on June 1, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Those individuals will continue to receive benefits while laid off, though.
Royals Have Reduced Future Payroll Commitments To Under $40MM
2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Royals:
(click to expand/view detail list)
Royals Total Future Cash Obligation: $38.75MM
Latest Chatter On Coronavirus-Altered Season
Most agree that staging a 2020 MLB campaign is a worthwhile goal, so long as it can truly be done safely and responsibly. Dividing the spoils of a baseball season? That isn’t a reasonable priority given the present state of the world. But it does need to be done. No matter one’s view on the right approach to a tough issue, it’s tough to understand the reflexive vitriol launched at the players, many of whom don’t even earn monumental sums. Just like the owners, they’re merely engaged in a necessary economic negotiation — the latest round of which was spurred by the league’s decision to propose a further salary reduction and introduce it through the media.
- Rays lefty Blake Snell sparked the latest round of controversy in the MLB-MLBPA salary battle when he offered some pointed comments during a Twitch stream. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times covered the story. Snell directly connected the matter of health to that of pay, saying he’s not willing to accept a further reduction of salary given that “the risk is through the roof.” Snell, who cited the possible long-term risks from the disease and worries about spreading it to family members, tells Topkin that he’s genuinely unsure whether to play even if the economics are sorted to his liking. While it wasn’t the smoothest delivery of his message, Snell seems genuinely conflicted and concerned with matters of real importance. The star lefty says he is still preparing for the 2020 campaign, but indicated he has begun to shift mentally to a 2021 return.
- Snell found some support from one of the game’s biggest stars, Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper. As Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports, Harper said in his own Twitch session that the hurler is “speaking the truth.” Now, that’s something far shy even of Snell’s warnings that he may or may not play. There’s no indication at the moment that Harper is considering a similar course. But it is a notable bit of star player unity on the matter of compensation.
- Rockies star Nolan Arenado also saw merit in Snell’s comments. He tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) that Snell was “just being real” but also expressed understanding that it rubbed some the wrong way. Arenado says the players “understand we’re not going to get paid everything we thought we were getting this year” and are okay with that. He also took a more measured view of the health situation, while noting it is a legitimate concern. Ultimately, Arenado believes the sides had a deal and should honor it and move forward: “It is a risk. We did negotiate a deal. I think that’s the thing: We negotiated a deal. Now let’s go play. Let’s get to work. That’s where we as players are coming from.”
- Cubs owner Tom Ricketts claimed yesterday that fully 70 percent of his team’s revenue comes from gameday operations. As Rob Arthur notes on Twitter, that sounds like a figure that may reflect a selective snippet of the real balance sheet of the multi-faceted Cubs-related empire. This goes to the main problem behind the league’s reported 50/50 revenue-sharing plan: it’s impossible even to assess unless the full picture is available. While teams may not believe players are entitled to a share of regional sports network revenue, surrounding real estate, and other such broader initiatives, the organizations do stand to profit from those adjacent activities. And given the league’s claim of potential losses in a spectator-free season — which is a relevant aspect of the recent contract agreed upon between the sides — it seems only fair to consider the full picture.
- If you thought Snell’s comments sparked a firestorm, let’s see how this plays out … Alex Rodriguez, who earned more money playing baseball than anyone, just released an odd video calling upon players and owners to work out a 50/50 split. It’s mostly a bland call to work together, but A-Rod’s controversial background (not to mention his recent dalliance with purchasing the Mets) puts a different spin on the generally mundane words. Thing is, the owners know that going halfsies sounds fair. But the real question isn’t the relative split, it’s the absolute size of the pie the owners are offering to carve up — and how close it comes to the pro rata pay (approximately half pay for a half season) the players believe to be appropriate.
- Even if (likely when) the matter of salary is resolved, it’s clear there are quite a few complicated questions, as Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription link) nicely breaks down. The one that stands out: commissioner Rob Manfred says that individual players won’t be forced to play once the finances are sorted out. But what does that mean in terms of salary, service time, and the like? There’s quite a lot still for the sides to work through.
The Last 10 First Overall Picks
We previously revisited the No. 1 overall picks from the 1980s, the 1990s and 2000-09. Let’s now take a look at the prior decade…
2010 – Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals:
- This was an easy pick for the Nationals, who grabbed one of the most hyped prospects ever, and Harper hasn’t disappointed. Now 27 years old, Harper’s a six-time All-Star with an NL MVP and a Rookie of the Year Award to his name, though he’s no longer a National. Harper owns the largest overall free-agent contract ever – the 13-year, $330MM accord he signed with the division-rival Phillies before 2019. Between the two teams, Harper has slashed .276/.385/.512 (138 wRC+) with 219 home runs and 35.1 fWAR.
2011 – Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates:
- Speaking of record contracts, Cole scored a nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees this past winter, making him the highest-paid pitcher ever. The flamethrower got there by combining for a 3.22 ERA in 1,195 innings between Pittsburgh and Houston from 2013-19. The low-budget Pirates, unable to retain Cole for the long haul, sent him to the Astros prior to the 2018 campaign for what hasn’t been a great return thus far. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely they regret taking Cole No. 1 nine years ago.
2012 – Carlos Correa, SS, Astros:
- This is yet another smash success from the previous decade’s drafts. While injuries have troubled Correa of late, he’s one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball when he takes the field, having batted .277/.356/.489 (129 wRC+) with 102 homers and 18.5 fWAR over 2,362 plate appearances.
2013 – Mark Appel, SP, Astros:
- Unlike the Correa pick, this selection didn’t work out for the Astros. Appel, who still hasn’t pitched in the majors, went one pick before Cubs superstar Kris Bryant. But the Astros did get value from Appel when they dealt him and others to the Phillies in 2015 for reliever Ken Giles, who had his moments with the club from 2016-18. Appel, meanwhile, stepped away from baseball in February 2018. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll pitch professionally again.
2014 – Brady Aiken, SP, Astros:
- Three straight No. 1 picks for the Astros. They’ve come a long way since then, but Aiken didn’t play a role in their recent success. The team failed to sign Aiken, but its inability to do so turned into a 2015 compensatory pick (No. 2) that it used on Alex Bregman. Safe to say that worked out well. Aiken re-entered the draft and went 17th to the Indians in ’15, but he hasn’t played in the majors yet, and like Appel, he isn’t sure if he ever will.
2015 – Dansby Swanson, SS, Diamondbacks:
- Swanson, who came off the board one pick before Bregman (oops), never actually played for the Diamondbacks. They traded him, outfielder Ender Inciarte and righty Aaron Blair to Atlanta in a 2015 deal that brought Shelby Miller to Arizona (MLBTR’s George Miller recently revisited that swap). Swanson hasn’t blossomed into a star at the MLB level, though, as the owner of a .245/.318/.385 line (81 wRC+) with 3.9 fWAR in 1,774 trips to the plate.
The rest:
- For the most part, it’s too soon to assess these players. Outfielder Mickey Moniak went No. 1 to the Phillies in 2016, but he hasn’t gotten past the Double-A level yet. If the Phillies had a do-over, they’d probably take Pete Alonso (64), Bo Bichette (66) or Shane Bieber (122), to name a few who have turned into major league standouts from that draft class. A year later, shortstop Royce Lewis went to the Twins at No. 1. Righty Casey Mize became a Tiger with the top pick in 2018, and catcher Adley Rutschman joined the Orioles with the first selection last summer. Lewis, Mize and Rutschman are still regarded as premium prospects. We’ll see how they fare if and when they appear at the sport’s highest level.
Amir Garrett Hires Boras Corporation
Reds lefty Amir Garrett has hired the Boras Corporation to represent him, per Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). That relationship is now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Scott Boras needs no introduction here; he’s equal parts renowned and reviled for his less-than-shy pursuit of big free agent paydays. In this case, the client in question isn’t anywhere near the open market, but he’s soon to be due a raise.
Garrett will be up for a contract in 2021, when he’ll reach arbitration for the first of three times. His new agency will be responsible for sorting out an agreement with the Cincinnati organization — or, instead, arguing a case before an arbitrator.
Just how much Garrett can earn will depend upon what he’s able to show in 2020, if indeed there is a season. The 28-year-old’s overall career numbers don’t stand out due to an ugly early run as a starter, but Garrett was a productive reliever last year, when he produced 56 frames of 3.21 ERA ball.
It’s possible to imagine the power southpaw boosting his payout with a big 2020 season, especially if he can rack up a nice tally of holds. (They play well in arbitration; saves are even better but Garrett isn’t first in line in Cincinnati.) There’s downside as well. Garrett produces a lot of swings and misses (16.2% swinging-strike rate; 12.5 K/9) but is also no stranger to the free pass (5.6 BB/9).