Phillies “Looking At” Stephen Strasburg
While the level of interest isn’t entirely clear, the Phillies are at least considering a move for veteran starter Stephen Strasburg, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The organization is said to be “looking at” plucking a star from the division-rival Nationals for a second consecutive winter.
There are many other possibilities for Strasburg, who wrapped up an outstanding (and rather redemptive) season in D.C. before opting out of his contract in favor of the open market. As Heyman notes, there’s still a sense that Strasburg could well line up again with the Nats. But many of the game’s highest-spending organizations have already shown interest as well.
Strasburg would be a big addition to any rotation, but he’d be of particular import to a Phillies staff that was filled with struggles last year. Like many other teams, the Phils are looking both for impact and reliability. Stras has consistently delivered the former … at least, when healthy. Concerns with his durability are in some regards overstated. He’s fresh off of a dominant and complete season at 31 years of age. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Strasburg has averaged 28 starts and 168 innings annually (including his infamous 2012 shutdown campaign).
While the Phillies have indicated trepidation at coughing up draft compensation to add a free agent, that’s simply the requisite ante to sit at the high-stakes table. Strasburg is a good enough player that teams can mostly ignore the lost draft capital. That’s particularly true now that he has thoroughly erased any doubts (as unjustified as they were in the first place) over his big-game capabilities. Recently crowned the World Series MVP, Strasburg has passed every test thrown at him in the postseason with flying colors. In 55 1/3 career playoff frames, he owns a sparkling 1.46 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9.
Indians Re-Sign James Hoyt
After being dropped from the Indians’ 40-man roster in advance of the non-tender deadline, righty James Hoyt has landed back with the Cleveland organization. Full terms aren’t known, but the contract does come with a MLB roster spot.
The 33-year-old Hoyt hasn’t yet proven he can deliver results in the majors, but has had no trouble getting swings and misses from big-league hitters. He has averaged a 16.8% swinging-strike rate at the game’s highest level, allowing him to carry an excellent 104:26 K/BB ratio over eighty frames. Hoyt has also allowed 14 long balls in that span.
It’ll be interesting to see whether the Indians can coax some quality MLB frames out of the slider-heavy hurler. He spent the 2019 season shifting from a four-seam to a two-seam heater — at least, as identified by pitch-tracking software — which may have helped him to limit International League hitters to three home runs in 42 Triple-A frames. But Hoyt did go on to surrender a pair of dingers in his 8 1/3 September innings in the majors.
Blue Jays Checked In On Michael Pineda
The Blue Jays have at least checked in on right-hander Michael Pineda, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN (Twitter link). The precise level of interest isn’t known.
If the Blue Jays are indeed taking an aggressive stance on open-market arms, Pineda would be a good place to start. He’s not expected to secure anything like the big money destined for the very top options, so inking him shouldn’t be overly committing. At the same time, Pineda comes with a blend of recent durability, relative youth, and perhaps some remaining upside that would make good sense for the still-building Jays. That combination will also hold appeal to many other organizations.
We haven’t heard much in the way of early development in the Pineda market. Perhaps some teams will write him off due to his recent PED-related suspension. But it’s otherwise possible to imagine rather broad interest, so a dedicated early pursuit might help the Toronto organization pull off the sometimes-difficult task of luring the hurler north of the border. The Jays are surely still interested in adding multiple rotation pieces even after landing Chase Anderson, so the club is also involved in the markets of quite a few other established starters.
Rangers Out On Zack Wheeler
The Rangers have been bumped from the bidding on righty Zack Wheeler, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The market is beginning to move quickly for the former Mets hurler.
With the Texas organization out of the hunt, there’s greater clarity in the likely outcomes. Right now, the Phillies, Reds, and White Sox are by all accounts pushing hard to land Wheeler. The status of other interested clubs — the Blue Jays, Angels, and Twins — is still up in the air.
What’s next for the Rangers isn’t known. Grant surveys the remaining options but says it’s not yet clear whether the team has interest in the next level of rotation options. Running down the line on our ranking of the top 50 free agents, lefties Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu are the top remaining alternatives. Michael Pineda remains an interesting potential target. It’s also possible the Rangers could go for a sturdy veteran such as Cole Hamels or Dallas Keuchel. And there are quite a few alternatives yet further down the market spectrum.
Red Sox Re-Sign Marco Hernandez, Josh Osich
The Red Sox announced today that they have re-signed infielder Marco Hernandez and lefty Josh Osich. Both had been non-tendered in advance of Monday’s deadline.
Both players are headed back onto the 40-man roster. The reason for this approach, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains on Twitter, was to enable the sides to agree to a different contract structure than would have been possible in the arbitration context.
Osich gets a split contract with a $850K MLB salary, according to Speier (Twitter link). He had projected to earn $1MM via arbitration after being claimed by the Red Sox from the White Sox in October. The 31-year-old worked to a 4.66 ERA in 67 2/3 MLB innings last year, recording 8.1 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 but coughing up 15 home runs.
As for Hernandez, whose re-signing was reported yesterday, he’ll have a split deal with a MLB rate of $650K MLB (also via Speier, on Twitter). He hasn’t done much damage with the bat in limited opportunities at the game’s highest level, but the organization obviously still thinks the versatile defender could be a valuable roster piece. Hernandez, who hopes to put his shoulder issues behind him in 2020, had projected to earn $700K via arbitration.
Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays
There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.
Here’s more from other areas of the market:
- Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
- The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
- We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
- The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.
Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler
There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.
With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.
In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.
This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.
AL Notes: Lindor, Wheeler, Yanks, Twins
Let’s take a quick look around the American League…
- Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor is a prominent trade candidate, at least speculatively. However, as you’d expect, it’s going to be extremely difficult to pry the superstar out of Cleveland. The Indians would have to be “overwhelmed” by an offer in order to part with the 26-year-old four-time All-Star this offseason, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com writes. Lindor has just two years of control left and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension, meaning there’s a case the Indians should strongly consider trading him before next season. However, the perennial contenders apparently want to see how they fare coming out of the gate next season before deciding Lindor’s future, Hoynes suggests. If that’s the case, we may not see a Lindor trade until at least around next July’s trade deadline.
- Right-hander Zack Wheeler has become popular on the open market, but it doesn’t appear the longtime Met will be sticking in New York. Although the Yankees have shown interest in the hard-throwing Wheeler, they seemingly aren’t willing to hand him a nine-figure contract, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. Signs are pointing to the 29-year-old Wheeler landing a contract worth at least $100MM, so if the Yankees don’t want to go there, they’ll likely have to look elsewhere for starting help.
- Righty Matt Wisler, whom the Twins claimed off waivers from the Mariners in October, will make just over $700K in 2020, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. That looks like a rather team-friendly amount for the out-of-options Wisler, who had been projected to earn $1MM next season. The 27-year-old Wisler, a former top prospect, divided last season between Seattle and San Diego and logged a 5.61 ERA/4.23 FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates of 11.05 and 2.81 across 51 1/3 innings.
Sorting The Skills Of The Non-Tendered Pitchers
A smorgasbord of new players reached the open market Monday, the deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible guys. But did anyone particularly interesting join the class of available players? Let’s start on the pitching side and use several different key statistics from 2019 to determine whether any hurlers of real intrigue just became part of the current free-agent class. Admittedly, because we’re lumping starters and relievers together, this is an imperfect method. We’ll go with a minimum 20-inning limit to somewhat mitigate that…
Hardest Throwers
League average = 92.7 mph
- Blake Treinen, RHP: 96.7
- Junior Guerra, RHP: 94.7
- Josh Osich, LHP/Derek Law, RHP/Jason Adam, RHP: 94.5
- Yimi Garcia, RHP: 94.2
- Kevin Gausman, RHP: 94.0
Top Strikeout Arms
League average = 22.3%
- Yimi Garcia: 26.7 K%, 9.53 K/9
- Kevin Gausman: 25.3 K%, 10.03 K/9
- Ryan Buchter, LHP: 25.3 K%, 9.93 K/9
- Jimmy Nelson, RHP: 24.8 K%, 10.64 K/9
- Derek Law: 23.5 K%, 9.94 K/9
Fewest Walks
League average = 7.7%
- Josh Osich: 5.5 BB/9, 2.00 BB/9
- Yimi Garcia: 5.7 BB%, 2.02 BB/9
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 5.9 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
- Kevin Gausman: 7.1 BB%, 2.81 BB/9
- Alex Claudio, LHP: 9.0 BB%, 3.48 BB/9
Best Groundball Rates
League average = 42.7%
- Alex Claudio: 57.4
- Derek Law: 50.0
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP: 46.9
- Junior Guerra: 43.4
- Blake Treinen: 42.8
Least Hard Contact
League average = 38.4%
- Alex Claudio: 30.2
- Jason Adam: 33.3
- Josh Osich: 35.7
- Blake Treinen: 36.7
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 36.8
Blue Jays Interested In Josh Lindblom
The Blue Jays have already added one starting pitcher this offseason in ex-Brewer Chase Anderson, but he probably won’t be the last new member of their rotation in 2020. They’ve since been connected to a variety of free-agent starters, and you can add right-hander Josh Lindblom to the group. Lindblom’s on Toronto’s radar, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports.
Lindblom isn’t anywhere close to the top of the starter market – MLBTR projects him to earn $8MM over two years on his next contract – but the 32-year-old does look like an intriguing choice after thriving in Korea from 2017-19. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently highlighted the excellence Lindblom displayed overseas after bouncing around among several destinations, including the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, Athletics and Pirates, from 2011-17.
Now, odds are that Lindblom will return to the majors this offseason, and the team that signs him will surely hope he can come close to enjoying the type of success the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has since he left Japan to join the Cardinals in December 2017. Mikolas hadn’t shown he was capable of sticking in the bigs before he went to Asia in 2015, but he has been a high-quality starter since returning.
Even after picking up Anderson, Toronto’s rotation still looks extremely thin, as Matt Shoemaker (off yet another injury-shortened season) and the relatively unproven trio of Ryan Borucki, Jacob Waguespack and Trent Thornton make up its staff on paper. Signing Lindblom, given what he has done in the majors to this point, wouldn’t necessarily inspire much more confidence. Nevertheless, whether he chooses the Blue Jays or someone else, Lindblom plans to pick his next team by the end of the Winter Meetings on Dec. 12, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).