Yankees Meet With Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg
Dec. 4: Cole assured the Yankees at their meeting that he has “no west coast bias” at an in-person meeting that lasted for more than four hours, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the meeting with Strasburg went well, also. Specific dollars weren’t discussed, as the Yankees first endeavored to give Strasburg an overview of the organization and its pitching philosophies.
Dec. 2: The Yankees’ rotation was under fire throughout 2019, a year in which they came a couple victories short of their first World Series appearance since 2009. The reigning AL East winners are now focusing on upgrading their starting staff, as they’re seriously considering going after the premier starting pitchers on the market. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required), New York’s prioritizing right-hander Gerrit Cole – who, as a member of the Astros – helped knock the Yankees out of the ALCS. The Yankees are also interested in the No. 2 starter available, righty Stephen Strasburg, and they’ll sit down with him and Cole in California sometime over the next two days, Rosenthal reports.
Since the Yankees’ season ended, general manager Brian Cashman hasn’t made it any secret that they’ll scan the top of the market for starting help. However, as deep-pocketed as the Yankees are, it has been quite some time since they’ve gone to the lengths it would require to sign either Cole or Strasburg in free agency.
Cole is likely in line to obliterate the largest contract ever for a pitcher – the seven-year, $217MM deal David Price signed with the Red Sox entering 2016 – while the World Series MVP Strasburg could approach $200MM in his own right. Pacts like that could be problematic for New York if it wants to avoid severe luxury-tax penalties in 2020. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of FanGraphs and Roster Resource, the Yankees are already at roughly $215MM toward the luxury tax for next season, putting them over the first level of $208MM. The second and third levels of $228MM and $248MM, respectively, would obviously be much harder to avoid with Cole or Strasburg in the mix.
Owner Hal Steinbrenner spoke about possibly spending over the largest tax threshold Monday, telling the YES Network (via Tim Healey of Newsday): “It’s a big deal. It’s something we would certainly prefer not to do because there are June draft ramifications, there are numerous ramifications. But that is something I would consider.”
Indeed, if the Yankees were to go past $248MM, their draft slot would fall 10 places in 2020. However, Steinbrenner noted: “[The Yankees already have] a good rotation, but starting pitching, you can’t have enough. Like last year, that’s going to be my focus. You’ll have to ask [Brian Cashman] if he agrees with me or not. That’s all.”
The Yankees already have at least three rotation spots sewn up for next season. Luis Severino, whom injuries prevented from making much of an impact this year, will be back to join a group that boasts James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as complements. There’s less certainty thereafter, though, with Domingo German on administrative leave for a violation of the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, J.A. Happ coming off a rough season and Jordan Montgomery still trying to re-establish himself after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Yankees will take advantage of their financial might to sign Cole or Strasburg, but they’re at least mulling it.
Marlins Notes: Park Dimensions, Outfield, Catcher, Villar, Aguilar
Changes are coming to Marlins Park, as the team announced Wednesday that the fences will be moved in and new synthetic grass will be installed prior to Opening Day 2020. “In going through the process of evaluating the playing surface at Marlins Park in 2019, we set out to find a solution to combat the challenges we have experienced with growing natural grass in Marlins Park,” CEO Derek Jeter said in announcing a partnership with Shaw Sports Turf.
As far as the park dimensions, the center-field and right-center field walls will each be moved in by 12 feet, making the distance to straightaway center an even 400 feet, while the right-center power alley will now be 387 feet deep. “We made the decision to adjust the distance of the outfield fence, which will now be more in line with the field dimensions you see across many of today’s ballparks,” said Jeter.
Here’s more out of Miami…
- The Marlins are looking for free-agent outfielders who are willing to sign one- and two-year contracts as they look to bolster their lineup in 2020, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro lists Avisail Garcia and Yasiel Puig as potential fits for the club, whereas Nicholas Castellanos, another appealing target, is likelier to secure a lengthier pact. Puig, of course, has a long and checkered history with manager Don Mattingly dating back to the pair’s days with the Dodgers, although presumably if talks between the two sides begin in earnest, they’ll work to bury whatever hard feelings (if any) still exist. Garcia, meanwhile, was linked to Miami last week, and the fit makes plenty of sense on paper; MLBTR predicted that Garcia would land with the Fish when ranking our top 50 free agents at the outset of the offseason. Recently non-tendered Steven Souza Jr., too, “will be explored” as a possibility, per Frisaro. The former Rays right fielder missed most of the past two seasons with the D-backs due to injury but topped 30 homers back in 2017.
- Frisaro also suggests that the Marlins will be in the market for a part-time catcher to pair with Jorge Alfaro, pointing out that free agent Francisco Cervelli and Jeter were teammates when Cervelli first arrived on the scene with the Yankees. The 33-year-old Cervelli’s career has been slowed considerably by concussions in recent seasons — including just a 48-game effort in 2019 due to concussion symptoms — but he hit .259/.378/.431 with the Pirates as recently as 2018 and has been an on-base machine throughout his career.
- The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times. Jesus Aguilar, meanwhile, will be given ample opportunity to cement himself as the Marlins’ primary first baseman next season, Mattingly suggested. A return to 2018 form for Aguilar, who hit .274/.352/.539 with 35 homers that season, would be a particularly positive development for Miami. Unlike Villar, who is a free agent next winter, Aguilar can be controlled through the 2022 season.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 12/4/19
Click here to read a transcript of tonight’s chat with Connor Byrne of MLBTR.
2020 Competitive Balance Draft Pick Order
Major League Baseball has determined the orders of Competitive Balance Rounds A and B for the 2020 amateur draft, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. Comp Round A takes place after the first round of the draft, while Comp Round B goes down at the conclusion of the second round. The selections are comprised of picks awarded to teams that are considered in the bottom 10 in terms of market size and/or revenue.
Here’s the order of the two rounds, per Mayo:
Round A
31) Baltimore Orioles
32) Pittsburgh Pirates
33) Kansas City Royals
34) Arizona Diamondbacks
35) San Diego Padres
36) Colorado Rockies
37) Cleveland Indians
38) St. Louis Cardinals
Round B
68) Miami Marlins
69) Detroit Tigers
70) Tampa Bay Rays
71) Milwaukee Brewers
72) Cincinnati Reds
73) Minnesota Twins
Unlike the typical draft pick, these choices can be traded, which means the order listed above isn’t necessarily etched in stone. However, these picks can only be traded during the season, and they can change hands just once. Furthermore, qualifying offer decisions from this offseason will shake up the draft order to some extent. White Sox slugger Jose Abreu and Twins right-hander Jake Odorizzi accepted those offers, but the eight others who received them rejected. Each of those calls will have an impact on the 2020 draft order.
*This is an updated version of a prior post from MLBTR’s Jeff Todd.
Steve Cohen In Talks To Increase Investment In Mets
The Mets announced this afternoon that minority owner Steve Cohen and the Sterling Partners (owner Fred Wilpon’s company) are negotiating a deal in which Cohen “would increase his investment in the New York Mets.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the news just minutes before the organization made a formal announcement (Twitter link).
The arrangement would make Cohen the new majority owner of the Mets if it is indeed completed, as Bloomberg reports that the proposed sale of shares would give him an 80 percent share of the team, which is being valued at $2.6 billion. Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that Cohen would become the Mets’ control person heading into the 2025 season under the current proposal.
Under the terms of the yet-to-be-finalized agreement, Fred Wilpon (the co-founder and senior partner of Sterling Equities) would remain the Mets’ CEO and control person for another five years. His son, Jeff Wilpon, would also remain COO for another five years. Cohen will continue on as CEO of Point72 Asset Management, per the announcement.
Any ownership-level shakeup, of course, can have payroll implications for a team, but there’s no immediate indication that the Mets will increase spending in the near future. To the contrary, multiple reports this week have indicated that the Mets may need to move some undesirable contracts before spending further this winter — a reality that has long since been apparent to any who’ve closely examined the team’s payroll outlook. As for what would happen with regard to team payroll down the line, that can’t be known at this time, but it’s worth highlighting that the Bloomberg Billionaire Index lists Cohen’s net worth at a staggering $9.2 billion.
Today’s announcement seemingly puts a finite window on the Wilpons’ rein atop the organization and, as ESPN’s Buster Olney points out (Twitter link), perhaps explains why the club has been so focused on winning as soon as possible and making splashy moves toward that end. The Wilpon family has long been among the most highly scrutinized ownership groups in all of Major League Baseball, with reports of organizational dysfunction and over-involvement in more granular aspects of day-to-day operations becoming commonplace in recent years.
Angels Acquire Dylan Bundy
4:16pm: The Orioles have announced the move. Their 40-man roster is down to 37 players.
3:41pm: Also going to the Orioles in the deal are right-handers Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish and Kyle Brnovich, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports (Twitter link).
3:06pm: The Angels have reached a deal to acquire right-hander Dylan Bundy from the Orioles, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Minor league right-hander Isaac Mattson is among the players headed back to the Orioles in the trade, which should be the first of several moves made to add to the Angels’ rotation this winter. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles will acquire a total of four minor league pitchers in the deal (Twitter link).
Bundy, 27, was the fourth overall pick by the Orioles back in 2011 and was touted as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects before a slew of injuries slowed his path to the big leagues. Once heralded as a potential ace, he’s instead settled in as a back-of-the-rotation arm in Baltimore, although despite a loss of velocity on his formerly blazing heater, Bundy still creates some optimism that there could be more in the tank.
First and foremost, it should be noted that he’s largely distanced himself from his early-career injury troubles, making 89 starts across the past three seasons as the lone source of consistency in the Baltimore rotation. He’s averaged better than a strikeout per inning over the past two seasons as well, and in 2019 posted a career-high 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate and 35.7 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.
Bundy averages just 91.2 mph on his fastball at this point, but his ability to miss bats is undeniable. Drilling down a bit deeper, the spin rate on Bundy’s fastball ranked in the 95th percentile of MLB hurlers back in 2017 and has fallen in the 86th percentile in each of the past two seasons. His slider has generated whiffs at a near-25 percent clip over the past three seasons as well.
All of that said, Bundy’s bottom-line results simply haven’t been that inspiring since establishing himself as a rotation regular in Baltimore. He’s totaled 503 innings dating back to 2017 but pitched to a lowly 4.83 ERA and 4.76 FIP in that time. Home runs have been a particular problem for Bundy, who served up a league-high 41 long balls in 2018.
Bundy did work to counteract that in 2019, throwing fewer four-seamers and more changeups. The resulting 41.5 percent ground-ball rate was the highest of his career, and if he can continue to induce grounders on a more regular basis, he should be aided by an improved infield defense in Anaheim, where Andrelton Simmons and David Fletcher both grade as standouts with the glove. Simply moving away from Camden Yards and the many hitter-friendly parks the AL East has to offer could also shave a few home runs off his total moving forward as well.
From a contractual standpoint, there’s plenty to like about Bundy. He’ll be eligible for arbitration both this winter and next before reaching the open market upon completion of the 2021 season, and he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an affordable $5.7MM salary for the upcoming 2020 season.
The Angels, perhaps more than any team in baseball, have been decimated by injuries in recent years, so Bundy’s average of 29.7 starts over the past three seasons alone surely holds appeal to the Halos. He’ll slot into a rotation mix that features a returning Shohei Ohtani (who should be recovered from 2018 Tommy John surgery), Andrew Heaney and youngsters like Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria and Jose Suarez.
Of course, the Angels are also known to be in the hunt for much bigger fish in free agency this winter, with Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg both rumored to be of interest to GM Billy Eppler and his staff. Other names on the market include Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, and it’d be a rather notable surprise if the Angels didn’t add at least one high-end arm to join Bundy in the updated rotation — be it via free agency or via trade. Given Bundy’s relatively low salary, there’s ample financial room for the Angels to do just that; they’re currently projected to come in around $150MM in 2020 payroll, and their luxury tax considerations are only a bit north of that mark.
Turning to the Orioles’ return, the 24-year-old Mattson, 24 will slot into the upper levels of the Baltimore farm system. He’s not a high-end prospect and wasn’t considered to be among the 30 best minor leaguers in the Angels’ system by either MLB.com or FanGraphs, but he enjoyed a strong 2019 season. A 19th-round pick in 2017, Matttson soared through the Angels’ system with 73 1/3 innings of 2.33 ERA ball and reached Triple-A late in the year. He posted a gaudy 13.5 K/9 mark against 3.3 BB/9 out of the bullpen and went on to post even better numbers in the Arizona Fall League; in 10 2/3 innings of relief in the AFL, Mattson allowed two earned runs (1.69 ERA) on nine hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts. He’s generated average or better ground-ball numbers throughout his minor league tenure and should be a near-term option for the ‘pen in Baltimore.
Bradish turned 23 in September and spent the season with the Angels’ Class-A Advanced affiliate after being selected in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. He logged a 4.28 ERA, 10.7 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 while running up a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 101 innings. MLB.com ranked him 21st among Angels prospects, praising his four-pitch mix and deceptive delivery but noting that said delivery also leads to control issues.
Both Peek (sixth round) and Brnovich (eighth round) were college arms drafted by the Angels this summer. However, neither pitched following the draft, as the Angels shut both down per an organizational policy for college arms (as noted by MLB.com’s Joe Trezza, on Twitter). Baseball America ranked Brnovich 107th in the draft class and Peek 193rd, while MLB.com ranked both just inside the top 200 (Peek 178th, Brnovich 185th).
The subtraction of Bundy leaves what already looked to be perhaps the worst rotation in baseball in even more grisly shape, although the Baltimore organization has made it abundantly clear that winning games in 2020 isn’t a priority. To the contrary — the Orioles are quite likely gunning for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft as part of what looks to be an Astros-esque rebuild under second-year GM Mike Elias (who was hired out of the Houston organization). The next several seasons won’t be pretty for Orioles fans, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll come out on top of this rebuild like the Astros and Cubs did, but their aim to do so is readily evident.
Braves Sign Cole Hamels
1:15pm: The Braves have formally announced the signing and (unlike most clubs) confirmed the terms of the contract in their press release. Their 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.
11:18am: The Braves have struck a one-year deal with lefty Cole Hamels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s said to include a $18MM guarantee for the John Boggs client.
Hamels can still get the job done as he closes in on his 36th birthday. Despite losing more than a full tick on his fastball from 2018-2019, he generated swings and misses at close to a twelve percent rate — much as he has done throughout his 14-year career. Since landing with the Cubs in the second half of the 2018 campaign, Hamels has spun 218 innings of 3.30 ERA ball over 39 starts while maintaining 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
This match has long made sense — for all the reasons the team decided last year to ink fellow veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel to a rental contract. MLBTR predicted Hamels to land in Atlanta in our ranking of the top fifty free agents.
Entering the winter, we believed Hamels could command a two-year deal at a $15MM AAV. But it emerged soon after the market opened that the veteran southpaw actually preferred a single-season mercenary arrangement. That’s just what he’ll get, and he’ll command a bit of a salary premium by foregoing any long-term security.
Hamels drew widespread interest over the past month. That continued into the month of December, with Bob Nightengale reporting (Twitter link) that a half-dozen organizations were still involved as of yesterday. The Phillies, White Sox, Rangers, and — surprisingly — the Giants were among the teams in the market until the end, per the report.
That Philadelphia link only further increases the NL East intrigue that we’re bound to see in 2020. While he is a few years removed from his tenure with the Phils, Hamels will always be known first and foremost as a long-time Phillies hurler who was one of the team’s key players during its last run of success.
Now, Hamels will try to help the Braves get over the hump. The Atlanta org has won the past two division crowns, but hasn’t yet managed to translate that success into the postseason. Hamels promises to step in for Keuchel as a durable veteran who has been there and done that plenty of times over a long and prosperous career.
This is the latest early strike for the Braves, who have already ticked through quite a few items on the checklist before the Winter Meetings even kick off. Hamels isn’t the top-of-the-rotation arm that might be preferred, but his addition doesn’t preclude further adds. For now, though, the focus will likely remain on re-signing or replacing third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers, Angels Have Held In-Person Meetings With Gerrit Cole
The Dodgers and Angels “have gotten face time” with free agent ace Gerrit Cole, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Those teams have long rated among the top theoretical possibilities for the California native.
Cole has recently been wooed in person by the Yankees, who’d like to roll out the red carpet for him in the Bronx. Sherman provides a detailed explanation of the organization’s approach — including his belief that Cole’s general predilection for the West Coast won’t prevent him from donning pinstripes.
It’s completely unsurprising to hear of the Halos’ involvement. The organization is desperate to get back to winning, has a glaring need for pitching and money to spend, and is now set to embark upon a new potential revenue source after agreeing to a deal with the city of Anaheim.
As for the Dodgers, they were already known to have held sit-downs with two other high-end free agents. Now, they’re at least a legitimate player on Cole, though the true interest level isn’t known. This level of investment is well within the organization’s financial capabilities but hasn’t really been part of its approach of late. The team has been willing to spend gobs of money on short-term arrangements. Whether it’ll approach Cole with such a scenario, providing an alternative to a lengthier term and greater overall guarantee, remains to be seen.
Giants Sign Tyler Anderson
DECEMBER 4: Anderson receives a $1.775MM base salary, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). There’s a roster bonus of $500K after 150 days of activity as well as $350K in incentives for throwing at least 130 innings.
DECEMBER 3: The Giants have signed lefty Tyler Anderson to a one-year, Major League contract, the team announced Tuesday evening. Anderson, who was claimed off waivers out of the Rockies organization, had been non-tendered yesterday. Terms of the contract weren’t disclosed, but it’s safe to assume that the GSE Worldwide client will take home less than the $2.625MM he’d been projected to earn in arbitration.
Anderson, 30 later this month, underwent knee surgery over the summer and was limited to 20 2/3 innings with the Rockies in 2019 as a result. The former first-round pick had an impressive debut season with the Rox in 2016 when he pitched 114 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with 7.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a hefty 50.9 percent ground-ball rate. But Anderson’s results took a turn for the worse in 2017-18, as his ground-ball rate deteriorated and he became increasingly homer prone. Anderson did rack up 176 innings and make 32 starts for Colorado as recently as 2018, and he has a minor league option remaining, making him a somewhat intriguing depth piece for the Giants in 2020.
Anderson isn’t likely to be guaranteed a job in the rotation next season, but there’s enough uncertainty on the Giants’ starting staff that he should have ample opportunity to vie for a spot this spring. Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have starting spots locked down, but the remaining spots currently look to be up for grabs in a competition featuring Anderson, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez, Logan Webb, Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez. That mix would change, of course, if (or perhaps when) the Giants make some additions via free agency or the trade market.
If Anderson is able to return to form, the Giants will be able to control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.
Astros Still Involved In Zack Wheeler Market
The Astros are among the teams still pursuing free agent righty Zack Wheeler, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Houston’s interest has long been known, but it wasn’t clear whether the club had staid in the bidding.
Entering the day, one Texas ballclub was known to be pursuing Wheeler. That still holds true, though the team’s identity has changed. It emerged earlier today that the Rangers are no longer involved.
To call Wheeler’s market robust would be an understatement. If reports are true, he’s already sitting on a baseline offer of five-year, $100MM (or more). It seems the only question is whether some organization will push much further north in terms of AAV or guaranteed years.
It’s interesting to see the ‘Stros staying in this market even as it reaches greater heights than most anticipated. The club has strongly indicated a desire to drop below the luxury tax line and will need to drop some salary obligations to do so. Adding Wheeler would only add to the intrigue.