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AL East Notes: Rays, Kimbrel, Red Sox, Pedroia

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As a team with neither a proven closer nor much money on its books, the Rays theoretically make sense for free agent Craig Kimbrel, the premier reliever on the open market. Reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell agrees, having lobbied the Rays to sign Kimbrel, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. However, officials from the low-budget Rays “have seemed adamant” that they’re not planning to pursue Kimbrel, Topkin writes. On whether Kimbrel would be worth it for Tampa Bay, Snell said: “I think so; I don’t know what they’re thinking. I’m pushing money. I want us to push as much as we’re able to. As much as we can get rid of, let’s go dump it into his hands.’’ Despite Snell’s hope that the Rays will splurge on Kimbrel, Topkin is careful to point out that the left-hander likes the team’s roster as is. Moreover, Snell’s not going to complain if the Rays don’t sign Kimbrel, Topkin adds.

Here’s more on Tampa Bay and one of its division rivals:

  • Rays third baseman Matt Duffy is dealing with left hamstring tightness, though the club’s not “overly” concerned, according to manager Kevin Cash (via Topkin and Eduardo A. Encina). However, given that it has been an ongoing issue for Duffy this spring, it’s cause for wariness, Topkin and Encina observe. Duffy, 28, was one of the Rays’ most valuable position players in 2018, when he hit .294/.361/.366 and accounted for 2.4 fWAR over 560 plate appearances.
  • Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia will “most likely” make his spring debut next weekend if he gets through his workout unscathed this Monday, manager Alex Cora said Saturday (via Christopher Smith of MassLive.com). The workout will include “everything. Ground balls, hit, run, everything,” Cora revealed. Although the Red Sox won their third championship of Pedroia’s career last season, their success came without the 35-year-old, who only appeared in three games as he battled left knee problems.
  • With a reunion appearing unlikely between Kimbrel and the Red Sox, whose bullpen looks like their weakest area, pitching coach Dana LeVangie & Co. are searching for hidden gems from within, Jen McAffrey of The Athletic details (subscription required). Specifically, the Red Sox are hoping to stumble on the next Ryan Brasier, a minor league addition a year ago who went on to enjoy a breakout season at the age of 30. During its bullpen bargain hunting this past offseason, Boston acquired one reliever via trade and another 10 on minors deals, notes McAffrey, who goes on to break down all of the 20 relievers who are currently in camp with the club.

Blue Jays Notes: Top FAs, Stroman, Travis

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The latest on the Blue Jays, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet:

  • The Blue Jays “checked in” on prominent Scott Boras clients Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez in free agency, but talks didn’t get serious in any of the three cases, Nicholson-Smith reports. Regarding Harper, there were “not a lot of conversations” on the Jays’ side, a source told Nicholson-Smith. “Some, but not a lot.” Toronto was never strongly connected to Harper during his drawn-out trip to free agency, which finally ended this week when he accepted the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer. The 31-year-old Keuchel’s still available, meanwhile, though it doesn’t seem the Jays – who aren’t expected to contend in 2019 – are in position to sign a 30-something pitcher to a lucrative contract.
  • While right-hander Marcus Stroman has frequented trade rumors in recent months, Nicholson-Smith suggests nobody has approached Toronto’s asking price yet. For now, “trade talks are relatively quiet,” Nicholson-Smith writes, though he notes that could change if a starter-needy team loses out on Keuchel and pivots to Stroman as a Plan B. Stroman, who’s in his second-last year of team control, made headlines last month when he expressed frustration toward the Blue Jays for neither extending his contract nor being more active in free agency (they’ve since agreed to deals with fellow righties Clay Buchholz and Bud Norris, which could assuage Stroman to some degree). Whether he opens 2019 with Toronto or another club, Stroman will attempt to bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor 2018 season, during which he notched a 5.54 ERA with 6.77 K/9 and 3.17 BB/9 over 102 1/3 innings.
  • Oft-injured second baseman Devon Travis will sit out at least the next few days because of left knee inflammation, Nicholson-Smith relays. Manager Charlie Montoyo isn’t exactly pushing the panic button over the issue, but it nonetheless continues a discouraging run of lower-body issues in recent years for Travis, who’s coming off a disastrous campaign in which he slashed .232/.275/.381 and recorded minus-0.5 fWAR in 378 plate appearances. Should Travis begin 2019 on the injured list, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would likely assume the reins at second, leaving a utility infield spot for Eric Sogard or Richard Urena, per Nicholson-Smith.

Central Notes: Royals, Tigers, Avila, Pirates, Cardinals

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It appears the Royals will have to trudge through 2019 without the face of their franchise, catcher Salvador Perez, who may need Tommy John surgery. While they’ve been connected to free-agent catcher Martin Maldonado in the wake of the Perez news, general manager Dayton Moore said Saturday he’d rather go forward with in-house options Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria and pick up “depth” at the position than add another potential starter, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star reports. It’s unclear whether that mindset would close the door on a Maldonado signing, however. Even though the 32-year-old Maldonado has accrued plenty of playing time in recent seasons, the defensively adept veteran may not be in position to hold out for a starting job at this juncture.

More from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch suggested Saturday the team will attempt to extend general manager Al Avila before his contract runs out after the 2020 season, though discussions haven’t yet gotten underway, Jason Beck of MLB.com relays. Avila, the Tigers’ GM since 2015, is “doing an excellent job” overseeing the rebuilding franchise, said Ilitch, who also spoke highly of manager Ron Gardenhire as he enters his second season with the club. Beyond that, Ilitch hinted the club’s poised to become more active in free agency as its rebuild progresses, per Beck, which jibes with previous statements from Avila.
  • Pirates outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall left the team’s game Saturday with “general lower extremity tightness,” according to Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The severity is unknown, but it’s not particularly reassuring news after Chisenhall missed all but 29 games last year with the Indians while dealing with calf problems. The Pirates signed the 30-year-old Chisenhall to a $2.75MM guarantee in free agency, in part because starting outfielder Gregory Polanco will miss at least the beginning of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
  • Cardinals reliever Brett Cecil will stay out of game action until late next week as he battles mechanical issues, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com writes. Cecil and the Cardinals insist he’s physically fine, but the southpaw noticed in his Wednesday appearance that he was leaving the mound too early and didn’t have his left arm in the correct position when he came set, Langosch writes He’ll need to fix those issues to have any chance at rebounding from a dreadful 2018 in which he logged a 6.89 ERA with 5.23 K/9 and 6.89 BB/9 in 32 2/3 innings. Cecil’s now in the third season of a four-year, $30.5MM contract that hasn’t worked out as hoped for the Cardinals thus far.

Angels Have Considered Offering 10 Years, $350MM To Mike Trout

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With Mike Trout down to his penultimate season of team control, the Angels have recently considered offering the center fielder a record-breaking contract – a $350MM extension over 10 years – though it’s unclear if they’ve actually proposed it, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Per Rosenthal, the accord would run from 2021-30, Trout’s age-29 to 38 seasons, meaning the future Hall of Famer would finish out the remaining two years and $66.5MM on his current contract before the extension would take effect.

A $350MM guarantee would be the highest in the history of baseball, quickly unseating the $330MM pact Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper received this week. It would also set a new high-water mark for average annual value at $35MM, defeating Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM per year. Still, as Rosenthal rightly observes, neither number appears adequate for Trout – a seven-time All-Star and two-time American League MVP who, at age 27, is already one of the greatest players in the history of the game.  Since his first full season in 2012, Trout has posted a ridiculous 64.0 fWAR, just over 27 wins more than second-place man Josh Donaldson, while easily leading the majors in wRC+ (174, 17 percent better than runner-up Joey Votto) and slashing .310/.420/.579 with 235 home runs and 185 stolen bases across 4,538 plate appearances.

Just as Trout has lapped his competition on the diamond, he’s on track to do the same on his forthcoming deal – whether he signs an extension in the next two years or reaches free agency after 2020. Harper, the Padres’ Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado (eight years, $260MM) have each signed enormous contracts in recent weeks, but as superb as they’ve been, their careers pale in comparison to Trout’s.

Since he first graced the majors in 2011, Trout has produced nearly $500MM in on-field value, according to FanGraphs. Trout has a case to aim for that figure (or $400MM-plus at minimum) on his next contract, but it doesn’t seem he’s in any rush to determine his long-term future just yet, having already achieved financial security when he landed a $144.5MM extension back in March 2014. When asked Friday if he’d be open to discussing a second extension with the Angels this spring, Trout didn’t slam the door shut, but he did suggest he’s more worried about readying himself for the regular season.

If Trout holds off on an extension, the Angels’ performance as a team this season could impact whether he’ll be open to discussions next winter. Trout “desperately” wants to win and has done everything in his power to carry the Angels to glory, but they’ve been startlingly inept despite his presence. Through the first seven full campaigns of Trout’s career, the Angels have earned just one playoff berth and haven’t even won a single postseason game. They’re now mired in a four-year playoff drought and haven’t finished above .500 since 2015.

Blue Jays To Sign Clay Buchholz

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Mar. 2: Sportsnet Canada’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Buchholz’s deal will be of the MLB variety when complete.

Feb. 28: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Buchholz deal, if finalized, would pay him “about” $3MM and contain another $3MM worth of incentives. Notably, the agreement is still pending a physical.

Feb. 28: The Blue Jays are set to sign right-hander Clay Buchholz, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The ISE Baseball client will be the second pickup of the past couple hours for Toronto, as the Jays quite recently agreed to terms with righty Bud Norris on a minor league pact as well.

Clay Buchholz | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Buchholz, 34, opened the 2018 season with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate, and Kansas City’s decision to cut him loose on May 1 proved to be a substantial misstep. The longtime Red Sox hurler caught on with the Diamondbacks, where he was a familiar face for GM Mike Hazen and several Arizona staffers who cut their teeth in the Boston organization. The Royals’ loss was the D-backs’ gain, as Buchholz turned in a masterful 2.01 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent grounder rate in 98 1/3 innings out of the Arizona rotation.

To be fair, Buchholz benefited from an unsustainable 86.6 percent strand rate and also had good fortune on balls in play (.255 BABIP), but virtually any metric pegged him as a resurgent, MLB-caliber rotation piece in his time with the Snakes (3.47 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.08 SIERA). The veteran hurler looked to be well on his way to positioning himself as a solid candidate for a big league deal this winter, but as has happened to Buchholz on so many occasions in the past, his arm didn’t hold up through season’s end. The Diamondbacks announced in mid-September that a flexor mass strain in Buchholz’s right arm had preemptively ended his season.

Following that injury, it was a quiet offseason for Buchholz. Though he said at the time of the injury that he expected to be ready to pitch in Spring Training, there’s been nary a word on the status of his recovery from that injury. Presumably, the Jays will have an update on Buchholz’s health if and when the reported agreement between the two sides is formally announced by the team. At this juncture of the offseason, a minor league pact seems likely, though one could certainly argue that Buchholz’s 2018 performance merits a guaranteed spot on the 40-man roster.

Buchholz will give the Jays some rotation depth, adding to a group that already features Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki, Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard. It’s not clear right now whose spot Buchholz would be overtaking were he to crack the Opening Day rotation, though Sanchez and Stroman are locks to occupy spots, health permitting, and Shoemaker seems likely to do so as well.

West Notes: Kyler, Felix, Verdugo

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Notes from around the game’s western divisions…

  • The A’s are “not giving up” on Kyler Murray, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Murray’s widely perceived as first-round selection in the forthcoming NFL Draft – he’s the 8th best ranked prospect on Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest big board – and recently checked in at an encouraging (for NFL teams) 5’10 and 207 lbs, just a half-inch shorter than Seahawks QB Russell Wilson during his combine appearance in 2013. His status, in fact, continues to soar: NFL Network reports suggest that the QB/OF is now “universally” projected to go first overall in April’s draft. Still, as Rosenthal reminds us, the A’s can still beat any NFL offer for Murray by offering him an unrestricted major-league deal that would guarantee him a spot on the 40-man. Baker Mayfield, last year’s first overall selection in the NFL Draft, signed a guaranteed deal worth nearly $33MM, so any investment of the kind in Murray, a player with only 238 AB in two college seasons, would be a significant risk. Still, the gamble may yet prove to be a worthy one under the current rookie-scale structure, where even the best players struggle to eclipse $5MM combined in their first four full major league campaigns.
  • Mariners righty Felix Hernandez, who clung ardently to a world-beating changeup at the height of his reign, has bluntly been informed that his best pitch is now his curveball, as the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish writes. Indeed, per FanGraphs’ pitch value metrics, the curve was easily tops among Hernandez’s offerings in 2018, the worst in a storied Seattle career for the Venezuelan. With just 0.7 combined fWAR in over 230 IP the last two seasons, and an average fastball velocity that reached a career-low 89.3 MPH in ’18, Hernandez knows his grip on the last rotation spot in the Mariner rotation is tenuous at best. Remarkably, the King, who’s thrown nearly 2,700 innings at the big-league level since his teenage debut, will be just 33 years old for much of the year, and may yet have a second act left in him.
  • Dodgers outfielder Alex Verdugo is tired of waiting for an opportunity, as Bill Plunkett of the OC Register explains: “I hit .330 for two years. I mean – at a certain point, numbers don’t lie. I’ve hit in the minor leagues. I think I’m a career over .300 hitter. Everybody wants to talk about ‘It’s the minors. It’s not the big leagues.’ I hit over .300 against lefties in my career. I hit righties and lefties very well in my career.” Verdugo, who’s been knocked in multiple circles for makeup issues dating back to high school, may again have a bird’s-eye view of the action this year – per Plunkett, the Dodgers “expect” to align their outfield with Cody Bellinger in right and A.J. Pollock in center; Joc Pederson, too, comes in with a career 118 wRC+ total under his belt, and Verdugo wouldn’t seem the logical choice to spell him against his left-handed kryptonite. The 22-year-old isn’t wrong about his batting average totals, but the power numbers – a .122 and .143 ISO in the last two seasons, respectively – leave plenty of room for improvement.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/2/19

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We’ll use this post to track the minor moves of the day…

  • The Pirates are bringing fleet-footed infielder Alfredo Reyes to big league camp as a non-roster invitee, per the Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (via Twitter). Reyes, 25, spent a majority of last season split between High-A Bradenton and Double-A Altoona, earning a six-game stint with the Pirates Triple-A club in Indianapolis. All told, Reyes hit .286/.386/.356 across the three levels, though most of that damage was done during the 61-game stint in High-A where he slashed .310/.424/.386. The speedy utility player managed to steal 35 bases in 39 attempts, an 89.7% success rate. Defensively, Reyes appeared at every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher.
  • Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Padres have signed lefty reliever Paco Rodriguez to a minor-league deal. Rodriguez, 27, jumped almost directly to the bigs after being selected in the 2nd round of the 2012 amateur draft by the Dodgers. In four seasons with LA, Rodriguez performed admirably – albeit in limited, LOOGY-exclusive role – twirling 85 1/3 innings of 9.6 K/9, 2.53 ERA-ball. Paco was shipped at the 2015 trade deadline to Atlanta, where rehab from a variety of injuries eventually culminated in a late-season Tommy John. He spent much of last season with Minnesota’s AA affiliate, notching a 4.26 ERA in 25 IP.

Giants Claim Merandy Gonzalez

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Per a team release, the Giants have claimed righty Merandy Gonzalez off outright waivers from Miami.

Gonzalez, 23, flashed electric stuff as a fast-rising arm in the Mets system before being shipped to Miami in a 2017 deadline deal for A.J. Ramos. The righty has worked primarily as a starter in a six-year minor-league career, but moved to the bullpen upon promotion to the big club last summer. In 22 IP for the Fish last season, Gonzalez posted a 7.77 K/9 against 3.27 BB/9 in a number of long-relief stints. His early-season work for AAA-New Orleans in the PCL was mostly uninspiring: the hurler struggled to miss bats, perpetuating a troubling trend from the previous season, and exhibited mostly-shaky command throughout.

FanGraphs, which rated Gonzalez 26th in its latest update of the Marlins system, lauds Gonzalez’s fastball/curveball mix, which both feature “nasty” natural movement, but note that his command lags well behind his control; the righty, it seems, isn’t very effective when facing a lineup for the second or third time.

If he sticks on the San Fran 40-man, Gonzalez could compete for the last spot in a deep Giant bullpen, especially if the club decides to dangle lefties Will Smith and Tony Watson as late-spring bait. Travis Bergen, Steven Okert, Fernando Abad, Pat Venditte, Trevor Gott, and Sam Coonrod comprise the bulk of the remaining hurlers in the mix, so perhaps Gonzalez’s status as a swingman could tilt in the odds in his favor.

Mets Sign Carlos Gomez

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Saturday, 1:25 PM: The deal is now official, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Friday, 11:48 AM:The Mets have reportedly struck a deal with free agent outfielder Carlos Gomez. The @BigDaveRants account first tweeted the news, which has been confirmed since by several reports. It’s said to be a minor-league pact, pending a physical.

Memorably, Gomez nearly became a member of the Mets in the summer of 2015. At the time, he was a star center fielder and the New York club was readying for a stretch run at the postseason. The deal was all but done before things fell apart.

The undoing of that swap created huge ripples still being felt. Gomez ended up being swapped instead to the Astros in a deal that worked out terribly for Houston but didn’t prevent the club from finding its own successes. That trade helped spur the Brewers’ recent resurgence.

Meanwhile, the Mets hung on to Zack Wheeler, who’ll now be a key member of the rotation after his own 2018 renaissance. The other piece of that trade-that-wasn’t,  Wilmer Flores, provided one of the trade deadline’s indelible moments when he shed some tears on the field following the reporting of the deal. (He was non-tendered this fall and landed with the Diamondbacks.)

Looking to the present, the deal makes for a somewhat interesting match. Gomez will obviously need to earn his way onto the roster after a forgettable 2018 season for the Rays, but he had a productive stop with the Rangers before that and only just turned 33 years old.

The Mets already have a host of left-handed-hitting outfielders, but are less certain from the right side. Gomez could push Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton in camp. While those younger options have much better gloves, Gomez is the most accomplished hitter of the bunch — though Broxton has been a similarly productive offensive performer (despite worrying strikeout numbers) over the past three seasons. It could be that Gomez will end up serving mostly as a depth piece while auditioning for other teams, but there’s about a month left in camp and circumstances can always change.

MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

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Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.” 

Goldschmidt poll link for app users. 

Rendon poll link for app users.

 

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