Red Sox Will Tender Contract To Jackie Bradley Jr.
Despite some recent speculation that the Red Sox could non-tender Jackie Bradley Jr. prior to tonight’s 8pm ET deadline, the organization will tender him a contract for the 2020 season, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports (Twitter link).
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested last night that a non-tender of Bradley could be possible (subscription required), pointing out that the $11MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bradley to earn in his final season of club control may be steeper than the team prefers. But Bradley’s strong defensive track record, extra-base pop and speed are seemingly enough that the Boston organization feels he’ll at least be valued at that rate elsewhere. The dearth of useful center fielders in free agency certainly makes that likely.
It stands to reason that Bradley is still a candidate to change hands between now and Opening Day 2020. Boston’s payroll is already in the $230MM neighborhood (including arbitration projections and pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster), and there are notable holes to address on the roster. Moving Bradley would be the second of what could be several moves designed to scale back on the 2020 payroll; the Red Sox also traded catcher Sandy Leon to the Indians earlier this morning, shedding a projected $2.8MM salary in the process.
The 29-year-old Bradley hit .225/.317/.421 with 21 long balls, 28 doubles and three triples in 567 plate appearances with the Sox this past season. However, he hasn’t had an above-average year at the plate (by measure of OPS+ or wRC+) since his All-Star 2016 season, and his typically brilliant defensive ratings slid in 2019 as well. Bradley drew ratings of -1 Defensive Runs Saved and a -1.2 Ultimate Zone Rating, although Statcast’s Outs Above Average still pegged him as a quality defender (+6). The 2018 Gold Glover has long been considered to be one of the game’s better defensive outfielders.
Looking around the league, several teams (Cubs, Mets, D-backs, Braves, Phillies, Reds, White Sox) could be in the market for a short-term addition in center field. The D-backs, in particular, seem like a plausible fit given the presence of former Boston execs Mike Hazen, Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter in the front office and given the team’s history of acquiring former Red Sox players (Clay Buchholz, Blake Swihart, Robby Scott, Deven Marrero, Henry Owens). Arizona “would have interest” in acquiring Bradley, Rosenthal wrote last night, which would allow them to play Ketel Marte at second base rather than in center field.
Twins Rumors: Ryu, Rotation, Cron, Gibson
The Twins, in need of rotation upgrades, have been in touch with agent Scott Boras about left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North reports in his latest podcast (audio link, Twins talk beginning at 25:10 mark). It’s hardly surprising, as Minnesota figures to gauge the prices of virtually every top starter available, but the connection is nevertheless of some note. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune also links the Twins to Ryu, and he adds that manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson have been involved in the early recruiting process for the team’s top pitching targets. The general goal of those efforts is to help paint a picture of the culture the Twins try to foster and the means by which they feel they can help pitchers improve. “Making sure that people are comfortable and are going to a place with the right people they want to be with and they want to work with,” Baldelli said of the process. “…I enjoy talking with guys. Some of them end up Twins and some of them don’t. All of those conversations are worthwhile in every way.”
Some more notes out of the Twin Cities…
- Also within his podcast, Wolfson adds that there’s some internal trepidation about paying first baseman C.J. Cron at the $7.7MM rate projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They’ll have until 8pm ET tonight to tender Cron a contract, and it’s possible that they could try to bring him back at a lower rate. But the Twins have also continued to discuss the possibility of moving Miguel Sano from third base to first base, which would free up the possibility of acquiring a third baseman either via free agency (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier) or trade. If the Twins part ways with Cron, they’d be at $48.9MM in guaranteed contracts plus another $41.1MM in projected arbitration salaries and pre-arbitration contracts. That rough $90MM sum is well shy of the $130MM record payroll with which they opened the 2018 season, and the team’s 2019 attendance rose by nearly 250,000 over the 2017 season that preceded that record level of spending.
- Longtime Twins righty Kyle Gibson will embark on the next chapter of his career with the Rangers after agreeing to a three-year, $30MM deal last Wednesday. The former first-round pick apparently bet on himself in 2019, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Minnesota had tried to sign Gibson to a two-year pact worth $17MM a year ago. Gibson, however, spurned what would’ve been the first multi-year guarantee of his career and came out ahead as a result. He ultimately earned $8.125MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility and will take that home on top of the additional $30MM he’ll be guaranteed with Texas once his deal is formally announced.
KBO’s KT Wiz Re-Sign William Cuevas
The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization announced they have re-signed right-hander William Cuevas (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). The deal comes with a $900K guarantee, with an additional $100K available in incentives.
Cuevas, 29, pitched in parts of three MLB seasons with the Red Sox and Tigers, although he combined for only 22.1 innings at the highest level. He’d typically been on hand as high minors starting pitching depth between 2015-18. Cuevas is probably most well-known for his time with the Red Sox, who originally signed him out of Venezuela a decade ago. In addition to Detroit and Boston, Cuevas briefly pitched in the Marlins’ system, although he never made the big leagues with Miami.
Cuevas made the jump to Korea after the 2018 season. In his first season with the Wiz, he tossed 184 passable innings. His 3.62 ERA ranked 14th among 27 qualifiers, per MyKBO Stats, while his 17.8% strikeout rate (11th) and 8.3% walk rate (22nd) were more serviceable than remarkable. Nevertheless, the Wiz were evidently encouraged enough to commit one of their three roster spots available for foreign-born players to Cuevas in 2020.
Brewers Willing To Listen On Josh Hader Trade
Brewers’ star reliever Josh Hader is “available” in trade, reports the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. While Rosenthal indicates that no deal is close, Hader’s inclusion on the trade market could make for one of the more fascinating storylines of the coming months.
The 25-year-old southpaw has emerged as perhaps the best reliever in baseball since making his MLB debut in 2017. For his career, Hader has tossed 204.2 relief innings with a 2.42 ERA and an otherworldly 44.6% strikeout rate. Working without a set role and capable of handling multiple innings in an outing, Hader has exceeded 75 innings each of the last two seasons, all the while recording dominant strikeout numbers.
If there’s a blemish on Hader’s resume, he was a bit home run prone in 2019. He was hardly unique in that regard, of course, but Hader’s 15 home runs allowed pushed his ERA to a career-worst (albeit still stellar) 2.62. That’s not to diminish, though, just how dominant Hader has been. His 47.8% strikeout rate last year was easily the league’s best (minimum 50 innings); the 6.1 percentage point gap between Hader and second-place Nick Anderson equaled the gap between Anderson and fifteenth-place Chris Sale.
Why would the Brewers consider moving Hader coming off back-to-back playoff berths of which he was an integral part? Rosenthal argues it’s simply the nature of being a low payroll organization; the front office can never afford to completely shut itself out from any opportunity. That’s not to say Hader’s priced himself out of Milwaukee. Hader qualified for Super Two and is projected for an extremely affordable $4.6MM salary, although Rosenthal notes that Hader’s reps at CAA figure to argue for something a bit greater based on Hader’s status as a player of “special accomplishment.”
Regardless of whether that argument proves successful, Hader certainly remains a bargain. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season. His employer, be it the Brewers or some eventual trade partner, wouldn’t be committed to any long-term expenditure if he were to regress and/or suffer an injury. Perhaps no reliever in history can boast of Hader’s recent combination of dominance and volume.
One speculative target whom Rosenthal points to is the Mets, although he adds it’s unclear if New York and Milwaukee have actually discussed a Hader trade. New York is certainly on the hunt for bullpen help, and Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen co-represented Hader at CAA before taking over in Flushing. As Rosenthal notes, Van Wagenen has shown an affinity for pursuing his former clients in trade and/or free agency. While the Mets’ farm system has been depleted in recent months (most notably when Van Wagenen parted with Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to bring in former client Robinson Canó), Rosenthal speculates that New York could move pieces directly off its big league roster to facilitate a deal.
That said, virtually every present contender- or team angling towards contention in the near future- figures to have some level of interest in Hader. He’s affordable enough to fit into any team’s budget, and he would be the biggest weapon in essentially any bullpen he’s part of. As Rosenthal notes, some clubs could have concerns that Hader’s unconventionally high volume might eventually catch up with him. To this point, though, Hader’s shown no sign of letting up. Any slight downturn in performance in 2019 can be explained by the liveliness of the baseball, and he’s never had a stint on the injured list.
With all the appeals in Hader’s profile, Milwaukee has little urgency to make a move. If no one meets their exorbitant asking price, the Brewers could certainly bring Hader back and hope for similar dominance moving forward. Listening to offers is hardly the same as aggressively shopping a player. Perhaps nothing will come together in the long run.
Yet Hader’s situation will be fascinating to follow. With free agency starved for relievers, teams set on acquiring one with a high-end track record will have to work the trade market. No one can quite match the track record Hader’s put together over the past few seasons, setting the stage for a potential blockbuster.
Dodgers, Scott Alexander Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers have agreed to terms with left-hander Scott Alexander on a one-year, $875K contract to avoid arbitration, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Alexander falls a bit shy of his $1MM projected salary.
The 30-year-old looked like a potential non-tender candidate, perhaps explaining his decision to settle for slightly less than expected. An integral part of the Los Angeles bullpen in 2018, Alexander was limited to just 28 games last season, none after June 5. Alexander suffered a season-ending forearm issue in his throwing arm, which culminated in surgery to relieve nerve irritation in September.
Alexander’s time in LA has been a bit of a mixed bag. Over the past two years, he’s given the Dodgers 83.1 innings with a 3.67 ERA and mediocre strikeout (18.9%) and walk (9.9%) rates. Alexander’s an elite ground-ball specialist, though. His 68.5% ground ball rate the past two seasons trails only Zack Britton among still-active pitchers (minimum 50 innings). The former sixth-round pick turned those worm-burners into stellar results with the 2017 Royals, spurring the Dodgers to part with fairly well-regarded pitching prospect Trevor Oaks to bring Alexander aboard.
Predictably, Alexander has been a bit better retiring lefties (.250/316/.328) than righties (.253/.325/.363) over the course of his career. The Dodgers already have Adam Kolarek on hand as a more extreme lefty specialist, although the three-batter minimum rule likely to be instituted in 2020 could adversely affect both hurlers.
Today’s news doesn’t cement Alexander’s status with the Dodgers. Arbitration salaries don’t become fully guaranteed until the start of the regular season, so LA could yet choose to part ways later on at minimal cost. Alexander will, though, at least keep his 40-man roster spot for the time being. If he sticks on the roster for the winter, he comes with two option years, giving the Dodgers some coveted flexibility.
Quick Hits: Rangers, Andujar, Nishikawa, Giants, Bleier
We’ll check out a few notes as we wrap up a quiet weekend around baseball.
- The Rangers are “definitely intrigued” by the idea of acquiring Miguel Andújar from the Yankees to fill their third base vacancy, hears T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The Yankees have gotten numerous hits on Andújar this offseason, with interested teams perhaps looking to buy low after a labrum tear ended the 24-year-old’s season in April. With Gio Urshela having supplanted Andújar at the hot corner in the Bronx, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up now looks like an interesting trade candidate. Free agency remains an option for Texas, too; Sullivan hears the Rangers are still interested in Josh Donaldson, whom the MLBTR staff guessed would end up in Arlington on a three year, $75MM deal.
- Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters outfielder Haruki Nishikawa hopes the team will make him available to MLB clubs via the posting system next offseason, reports Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Nishikawa, whom Coskrey describes as a “speedy, left-handed hitter,” has a cumulative .284/.376/.393 line in parts of eight NPB seasons. 2019 marked a bit of a step back from the past few years for the 27-year-old, as he slashed .288/.393/.385 with 19 stolen bases. Every year between 2016-18, though, Nishikawa stole at least 39 bags with an OPS north of .790. Nishikawa’s entering his final year under contract with the Fighters, but he won’t qualify for international free agency. Thus, he will need the Fighters, whom Coskrey notes has historically been the most amenable NPB team to posting its top players, including Shohei Ohtani, to agree to post him if he’s to gauge MLB interest in 2020.
- The Giants are negotiating a deal with Indians‘ infield coach/defensive coordinator Kai Correa, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (via Twitter). San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler is a “huge fan” of Correa’s, Baggarly adds. Correa has spent the past two years working with infielders in the Cleveland organization. He’d previously spent seven seasons coaching at the college level, including four at the University of Northern Colorado.
- The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Richard Bleier to avoid arbitration, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter). Bleier is projected for a modest $1.1MM award in his first foray through the process. The left-handed sinkerballer has consistently posted an elite ground ball rate and been particularly stingy with walks, helping to overcome one of the game’s worst strikeout rates. Unfortunately, Bleier’s 5.37 ERA last season was over three runs per nine higher than the 1.97 career mark he carried entering the year.
Trey Mancini, Orioles Have Not Yet Discussed Extension
Orioles’ first baseman/corner outfielder Trey Mancini addressed his future with reporters this afternoon. While Mancini reiterated his desire to remain in Baltimore, the organization has not yet approached him about an extension, he said (via Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). Nevertheless, Mancini added that he’s “pretty confident” he won’t be traded this offseason, although he acknowledged that’s hardly within his control (via Joe Trezza of MLB.com).
There are myriad options for GM Mike Elias and the rest of the front office to take with Mancini. There are plausible cases for the organization to lock him up long-term or to move him this offseason. Alternatively, there needn’t be a mandate on the organization’s part to commit to anything just yet. Mancini, 28 in March, is entering his first year of arbitration and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2022. Projected for a reasonable $5.7MM salary, the Orioles could simply elect to tender Mancini a contract and plug him back into the middle of the lineup next season.
There are reasons why it makes some sense to be decisive now, though. Last year, Mancini slashed .291/.364/.535 with 35 home runs. He was easily the Orioles’ best hitter, and he finished tied for 30th among qualifiers with a 132 wRC+. That outpaced the fine but unexciting work Mancini did at the plate over his first two-plus MLB seasons. He entered 2019 with a career .268/.319/.458 slash, hardly remarkable for a bat-first player.
If the Orioles’ front office expects Mancini to regress towards his career norms, the time could be right to move him. The free agent market for first basemen isn’t particularly robust, and it stands to reason Mancini will never have more trade value than he does right now. Even if he continues to hit well next season, he’ll inch closer to free agency. His high home run and RBI totals figure to run up a pricey arbitration tag in the coming years, too. With the Orioles almost sure to be noncompetitive again in 2020, perhaps Mancini’s peak years ought be spent outside of Baltimore.
On the other hand, there’s value to having quality players around, even at the lowest depths of a rebuild. Mancini’s a likable and productive player. Moving him would certainly be a tough pill for some fans to swallow. (Of course, that didn’t stop the Orioles from waiving Jonathan Villar, Mancini’s only competition for Baltimore’s best player, earlier this week in a cost-cutting move). Mancini is also young enough to potentially be a part of Baltimore’s next competitive club, especially if he continues to be willing to work out a long-term arrangement. Bat-first players haven’t generated particularly exciting returns in trade the past few seasons. It’s certainly possible that Baltimore could have trouble finding an offer sufficient to part with their most recognizable player. If that indeed proves to be the case, there could be value to engaging with him on an extension.
A new contract would at the very least give both player and organization some cost certainty moving forward. As noted, Mancini’s skillset tends to be more highly-regarded by arbitrators than by current MLB front offices. The Orioles might prefer to lock in Mancini’s salary for the next few years rather than risk exorbitant arbitration awards, particularly if the player is willing to forfeit a would-be free agent year or two. Today’s news that the organization has yet to approach Mancini hardly precludes them from doing so at a later date this offseason.
Chris Sale Cleared To Begin Throwing
Red Sox ace Chris Sale has been cleared to begin throwing again after a visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI Radio. The goal is for Sale to be a full go for Spring Training in a few short months. Sale’s latest visit to the physician comes as a follow-up to an August appointment in which Sale received a platelet-rich plasma injection.
The Red Sox had originally expected to have their star lefty re-evaluated six weeks after the fact, but their early departure from the playoff picture allowed them to play it slow when it became apparent that Sale wouldn’t be needed in October. So the prolonged timeline is not reflective of Sale’s progress; assistant GM Brian O’Halloran said that “the rehab has gone very well and Chris is exactly where we want him to be.”
Sale missed all of September and much of August after encountering problems with his throwing elbow, landing on the injured list after experiencing inflammation in the wake of an August 13 start.
Even when he was healthy, Sale wasn’t himself, finishing the season with a 4.40 ERA, the worst mark of his career. His peripheral numbers were more in line with his career norms, but that did little to mitigate concerns about diminished fastball velocity. Luckily, it seems that Sale’s early-season dip in velocity was unconnected to the elbow injury, which is believed to have surfaced in August.
Still, any unanswered questions will be magnified by Sale’s hefty price tag, with a five-year contract extension worth $145MM taking effect in 2020, when Sale will earn $30MM. He’ll earn similar salaries through his age-35 season. From a financial perspective, Sale’s injury concerns could hardly have come at a worse time, but it seems there’s hope that Sale’s 2019 injuries won’t linger into the offseason and beyond. He didn’t suffer any ligament damage, and today’s update should inspire some optimism that Sale will once again be a stalwart in the Boston rotation and return to the Cy Young form that he maintained for the better part of a decade.
Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Wilmer Difo
The Nationals have signed infielder Wilmer Difo to a one-year, $1MM contract, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Difo had been projected to earn $1.2MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
Difo, who was seen by some as a non-tender candidate, is evidently still viewed by the Nationals as a utility option off the bench. However, his signing doesn’t necessarily guarantee him a roster spot with the 2020 Nationals. To some degree, he represents insurance against the potential losses of Brian Dozier, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Howie Kendrick, all of whom are free-agent infielders who would slot in above Difo on the depth chart.
Notably, Difo is out of options, meaning that he’ll need to clear waivers before he can be demoted to the minor leagues.
Last year, Difo played in 43 games for the Nats, posting a .252/.315/.313 batting line. He’s hardly threatening with the bat, but he’s valued for his ability to capably play multiple positions. Although he was only used in the infield last year, he’s played all over the diamond throughout his career—everywhere but first base, pitcher, and catcher.
AL East Notes: Avisail, Pedroia, Johnson, Orioles
Avisail Garcia has been a popular figure in the first weeks of free agency, and his list of suitors includes Garcia’s most recent organization. “There is interest, and engagement” from the Rays in a reunion with Garcia, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, updating his own report from late October that originally detailed the potential for another contract between the two sides. Garcia was a nice low-cost buy for Tampa last offseason, as the outfielder inked a one-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rays and hit .282/.332/.464 with 20 homers (good for a 111 OPS+ and 112 wRC+) while posting slightly above-average hard-hit ball numbers and defensive metrics in right field.
This solid but unspectacular season might keep Garcia within Tampa Bay’s rather limited price range, as MLBTR predicted only a two-year, $12MM deal for Garcia this winter. A bigger question could be where Garcia fits into a Rays outfield that already has Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, though the right-handed hitting Garcia is a nice complement amidst lefty swingers like Meadows and first base/DH options like Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe.
Here’s more from around the AL East…
- While Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia intends to resume his career in 2020 after multiple knee surgeries, “the most optimistic projection for Pedroia would be playing for the Sox in late May or June,” Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears from multiple sources. Pedroia has appeared in only nine games over the last two seasons, and with so much uncertainty around his availability, second base is a clear area of need for the team this winter.
- Both Abraham and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford were surprised by Boston’s decision to waive left-hander Brian Johnson earlier this week, though Johnson remained with the Red Sox (and outrighted off the 40-man roster) after going unclaimed. Johnson is also out of minor league options, which dimmed his value to other teams, Abraham hears from an evaluator. The timing of the move may have been tactical on the club’s part, Bradford notes, as Johnson was waived not long after other teams had set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and thus didn’t have the space to spare on a southpaw who pitched well in 2017-18 before struggling last year. The transaction caught Johnson himself by surprise, as he told Bradford, though “in the grand scheme of things I’m just not on the 40-man. My goals don’t change. I have the same goal going into spring training, fighting for a job either in the bullpen or starting.”
- Some of the offseason’s early moves have seemingly removed two potential Orioles trade partners for Trey Mancini or Mychal Givens, the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli writes. Mancini could have been a possible long-term piece for a White Sox team that appears ready to start competing, but Chicago’s extension with Jose Abreu and signing of Yasmani Grandal (as a part-time first baseman and DH, to go with his catching duties) would seem to limit Mancini to the outfield for the Sox, a less-than-ideal defensive fit. As for Givens, the Braves had interest in the right-hander at the trade deadline but have now addressed their bullpen needs by signing Will Smith and re-signing Chris Martin and Darren O’Day.