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Yankees Have Discussed Extension With Luis Severino

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 11:53am CDT

The Yankees have held at least some extension talks with young righty Luis Severino, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Whether a deal is likely, though, is not yet clear.

For the time being, Severino remains scheduled to participate in an arbitration hearing to determine his salary for the 2019 season. He filed at $5.25MM, with the team countering at $4.4MM. It’s not an especially high-stakes hearing, then, though setting a high mark in his Super Two year would set up Severino for greater future earnings.

It’s a different situation, then, from that which faced Aaron Nola and the Phillies before they hammered out a long-term deal today. In that case, a hefty $2.2MM spread in arb positions left significant risk on both sides. They ultimately settled for a four-year, $45MM deal that gives the team one option year.

Interestingly, the Yanks’ filing number on Severino sits just below the figure the Phillies would have defended ($4.5MM) on Nola, despite the fact that the Philadelphia hurler has a much more compelling statistical case and was in the 3+ service class. It seems the Yanks and Severino are closer to the same page as a starting point, not that it necessarily spells a greater likelihood for a long-term deal.

The Nola contract does not necessarily bear directly on Severino’s case, given the service differences, but it does represent a notable market marker. Certainly, that new deal does not break significant new ground. It’d be curious, at least, to see Severino secure a stronger deal than Nola with one season longer to go before he’s a free agent, though it’s entirely unclear what terms are being discussed at present. Gio Gonzalez (five years, $42MM, two options) still holds the high-water mark for a Super Two starter.

Phillies Extend Aaron Nola

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 10:12am CDT

The Phillies have officially reached a long-term deal with star righty Aaron Nola. The contract, which forestalls an arbitration hearing and expands the team’s control rights over its best pitcher, is said to be a four-year, $45MM deal that includes a club option.

Nola, a client of Paragon Sports, will receive a $2MM signing bonus and $4MM salary for the coming season. He’ll then earn successive salaries of $8MM, $11.75MM, and $15MM. The 2023 option is valued at $16MM and includes a $4.25MM buyout. Nola’s 2022 salary and 2023 option value will reportedly each increase by $1MM for each Cy Young win he secures, by $500K for a second-place finish and by $250K for finishing third through fifth in Cy Young voting.

Ultimately, then, the Phillies can control five future seasons of Nola, including 2019, at a total outlay of just $56.75MM (or perhaps a bit more, depending on Cy Young finishes). Nola gives up two would-be free agent campaigns in the deal. He had been nearing a hearing to determine his first-year arbitration salary, with his side filing at $6.7MM and the club countering at $4.5MM.

Now 25, Nola originally came to the Phillies organization as the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft. He has rewarded the club handsomely for that selection, having already thrown 569 innings of 3.35 ERA ball at the game’s highest level while maintaining 9.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 50.9% groundball rate.

Those shiny peripherals have been there from the outset for Nola, who has been a darling of ERA estimators ever since he took a big league mound. For his career to date, Nola is credited with a 3.24 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, and 3.48 SIERA.

In a sense, then, Nola’s eye-popping 2018 season was more a continuation than a turning point. But his 212 1/3-inning effort was still clearly a coming-out party, as Nola showed he could sustain excellence over a big workload while pitching meaningful innings. His resulting 2.37 ERA would have made him a Cy Young winner in some campaigns, though he settled for a still-impressive third-place finish after Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both turned in monster seasons.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

The obvious comp for this extension is the deal reached two years ago between the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez. That agreement included more money, but a lengthier term, for another high-quality, 25-year-old hurler who was nearing a first arbitration hearing. Martinez took home a $51MM guarantee over five years, while giving the Cards successive $17MM and $18MM options with a cumulative $1MM buyout, meaning his deal would top out at seven seasons and $85MM.

Nola’s camp probably prefers his deal to Martinez’s, which set a high-water mark for arb1 pitcher extensions but did give away two additional seasons of control. Still, it’s a bit of a surprise to see that Nola did not break new ground in earnings, particularly since he secured a significant initial draft bonus in addition to already having one season of arb salary (nearly) in hand. Even if he ended up losing the hearing and suffering a major injury this spring, he’d profile as an easy 2020 tender candidate. The recent experience of Garrett Richards — who has thrown just 138 2/3 innings over the past three seasons and is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, yet earned over $20MM in his final three arb years and then signed for $15.5MM in free agency — shows that teams will pay big money to hang onto the upside of top arms. Nola’s downside was limited, even in the event of a catastrophic injury. In terms of upside scenarios, the tepid free agent market is perhaps a factor, but team squeamishness toward long-term deals did not prevent Patrick Corbin from landing six years and $140MM — due in no small part to the fact that he hit the open market at 29 years of age.

If the option is indeed picked up, Nola will stand to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. He’d certainly still have ample earning capacity at that point, though leaving two prospective free agent campaigns in the hands of the Phils unquestionably removes some of the highest-upside contract scenarios. Of course, chasing the biggest imaginable guarantee certainly isn’t the top priority for every player, and it’s not hard to see how this contract serves Nola’s own interests as well — particularly since he did deal with a worrying forearm strain not long ago.

Whatever one thinks of the deal from the player’s perspective, it seems to be an easy risk for the big-budget Phillies to take. The Martinez experience does show some of the downside risks at play, as his injuries would have tamped down his arb earnings and do cloud his future, though he’s still a talented and youthful pitcher with ample promise. Locking up Nola comes with its own risks, but loads of upside as well.

It’s notable in this case that the sides had such a wide spread in their arb filing numbers. That had set up an important hearing decision, with Nola seeking to step in not far below Dallas Keuchel’s record $7.25MM salary and the Phils defending something closer to the longstanding ceiling for first-time eligible pitchers (the 2006 Dontrelle Willis salary of $4.35MM). MLBTR projected a $6.6MM salary for Nola, though the team obviously felt comfortable with its aggressively low stance and the panel would have been forced to pick one of the two filing numbers. That left plenty of risk for Nola; the $2.2MM gap, after all, would also have been reflected in his prospective arb2 and arb3 salaries.

On the team’s side, though, the deal forecloses the greater earning situation. Had Nola landed the $6.7MM he asked for, and then turned in two more seasons in range of his career norms, he easily could have cleared $30MM in arbitration earnings and might well have done quite a bit more than that. deGrom’s other-worldly campaign scored him a record-setting $9.6MM year-over-year raise; expecting anything on that order would be foolish, of course, but that number shows the magnitude of potential earnings.

Of greater importance than controlling Nola’s arbitration earnings is the acquisition of control rights over two more seasons, his age-29 and age-30 campaigns. Had Nola hit the open market after his arb time ran out, he might well have commanded a huge and lengthy deal — with any acquiring team interested especially in capturing his remaining prime years. Doing a contract now allows the Phillies to hang onto those seasons for a relatively low price and without any need to promise Nola money well into his thirties.

Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the deal (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweeted the contract breakdown. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reported the contract’s escalator clauses.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Athletics To Sign Robbie Grossman

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 9:58am CDT

The Athletics have agreed to a one-year contract with outfielder Robbie Grossman, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a major-league deal that lands in the $2MM range and also comes with some incentives, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Grossman, a 29-year-old switch-hitter, was non-tendered by the Twins last fall after projecting to earn $4.0MM. He has turned in above-average offensive numbers for the Twins, though hasn’t replicated his breakout 2016 effort in the ensuing two campaigns.

The calling card here is on-base ability. Through over two thousand plate appearances, Grossman carries a .355 OBP. He has boosted that mark up to .371 over the past three years. While he delivers little in the way of power (.122 ISO), Grossman has walked at a 12.8% lifetime clip.

Grossman doesn’t shine as an outfield defender, earning mostly slightly below-average grades from advanced metrics. He doesn’t add value on the bases; in fact, he was panned for his efforts on foot in 2018 (-4.8 BsR).

Clearly, then, the interest here for the A’s is in picking up Grossman’s ability to get aboard. He’ll presumably function mostly as a reserve outfielder, with Khris Davis taking up the DH slot. Grossman has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching in his career.

Giants Acquire Trevor Gott

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 9:01am CDT

The Giants have acquired righty Trevor Gott from the Nationals, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Cash considerations are headed to D.C. in return. The Giants placed injured righty Johnny Cueto on the 60-day injured list to make roster space.

Gott was designated for assignment recently by the Nationals. The hard-throwing sinkerballer becomes the latest relief arm to be targeted by the San Francisco organization.

Still just 26 years of age, Gott turned in a highly promising 2015 campaign but has stalled out since heading to the Nationals in the ensuing offseason. All told, he owns a 4.64 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 75 2/3 MLB frames. Gott’s standout pitch is a blistering two-seamer that has enabled him to carry a 54.3% groundball rate in the majors.

Athletics Re-Sign Brett Anderson

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 8:48am CDT

WEDNESDAY: The deal is now official.

TUESDAY: Anderson and the A’s do indeed have an agreement, pending a physical that is slated to take place today, Slusser writes in a full column. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that if the medicals check out, Anderson will be guaranteed $1.5MM and can make another $1MM via incentives.

MONDAY: The Athletics are nearing a contract with lefty Brett Anderson, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). Anderson himself tweeted this evening (without divulging the team) that he’s preparing for a physical tomorrow, so that may be all that remains before the agreement is finalized.

It’ll be a MLB deal for Anderson, a client of The Legacy Agency. Financial terms remain unknown at this time.

There have been quite a few ups and downs over the years for the southpaw, who is now 31 years of age. Once a highly promising young hurler in Oakland, Anderson has often been effective on the mound but has dealt with countless injuries, particularly to his back. All told, he has made about half of the starts he might have over his decade in the majors.

Last year came with a typical blend of positives and setbacks. Anderson dominated at Triple-A to earn his way back to the A’s staff, missed some time with a shoulder injury, and ultimately turned in 80 1/3 innings of 4.48 ERA ball over 17 starts in the big leagues.

As usual, Anderson turned in underwhelming strikeout numbers, with just 5.3 per nine in 2018. He made up for that by drawing grounders on 55.6% of the balls opposing hitters put in play, his highest rate since his last full season of 2015, and by allowing a personal-low 1.5 walks per nine. Statcast actually felt Anderson was a bit unfortunate, as it valued him with a .338 wOBA-against but a .318 xwOBA-against. ERA estimators valued Anderson as a solid back-of-the-rotation performer (4.17 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, 4.13 SIERA).

There’s a lot to like about that profile on a low-cost, low-risk deal. Clearly, there isn’t much appetite around the game for promising multiple seasons to Anderson, given his health history. But for an Oakland org that is still looking to fill out a decent rotation on the cheap, it’s easy to see the appeal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks Sign Caleb Joseph

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 8:30am CDT

The Diamondbacks announced today that they have agreed to a one-year deal with catcher Caleb Joseph. It’s a split deal that would pay $1.1MM in the majors or $250K in the minors, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter link).

To open roster space, the D-Backs placed righty Taijuan Walker on the 60-day injured list. He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, which was performed last April.

Joseph, 32, is an interesting addition on a MLB deal, though the split nature of the deal and the fact that he has a minor league option remaining suggest that he’s not a lock to break camp with the club. The Arizona organization already has Alex Avila under contract, still controls the out-of-options John Ryan Murphy, and acquired youngster Carson Kelly as a significant part of the club’s offseason trade of star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

It’s certainly possible that the club will carry three backstops, as it has done so in the past, though that’d obviously mean tying up an active roster spot. Alternatively, the Snakes could simply be planning to open things up to competition for two jobs this spring and option or trade/DFA whichever players fail to impress.

Joseph was non-tendered earlier this winter by the Orioles, the only professional organization with which he has played. He has at times been a palatable performer on offense, but has also struggled badly in two of the past three seasons. Last year, Joseph slashed just .219/.254/.321.

Clearly, there’s greater respect for Joseph’s defensive chops than for his bat. He has at times graded quite well as a framer, though that was not the case in 2018. Joseph has generally had success at handling wayward pitches and controlling the running game.

Cubs Officially Announce Regional Sports Network

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2019 at 8:10am CDT

The Cubs have announced their long-awaited formation of a regional sports network. The organization will partner with Sinclair Broadcast Group to launch the “Marquee Sports Network” beginning with the 2020 season.

There’s risk and opportunity aplenty in taking this route, as the Cubs will now be seeking to work out carriage deals for a channel reliant all but entirely on their ballclub and brand. Obviously, it’s quite a popular franchise, but one that — like any other — is hardly immune to on-field downturns or off-field controversy and won’t have live games to market for much of the year.

The Ricketts-owned Cubs have obviously thought through all of the competing considerations and decided to take the plunge. This is hardly their first notable business initiative. Rather, the move comes on the heels of a multi-year, multi-fronted plan to overhaul the organization’s business and baseball operations. There have certainly been some notable successes along the way, though there’s also suddenly quite a bit more uncertainty (at least on the baseball side) than anyone anticipated when a young Cubbies squad broke the curse in 2016.

In the announcement, Cubs president of business operations Crane Kenney promised a “Cubs-centric” network that will feature the iconic organization but also some unspecified “other local sports programming.” (The remaining three Chicago professional sports teams are already committed to remain with NBC Sports Chicago.) Kenney adds that the the network will “feature uncompromising, in-depth and behind-the-scenes coverage.”

Sinclair, which is best known for its conservative-oriented news coverage, is one of the country’s most powerful media companies. The company is presently bidding against MLB and others for the regional sports networks that are being auctioned due to Disney’s pending acquisition of certain Fox media assets. Sinclair already has media ties to White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf through the Stadium network.

If the partners are successful in structuring and marketing this channel, they could reap major profits. It’s not hard to imagine how that might continue to support investments in the club’s baseball operations. Indeed, the organization has long emphasized the connectivity between its business initiatives and roster-building efforts, with salary ramping up quite significantly over the past several years. On the heels of a disappointing conclusion to the 2018 season, though, the Cubs are wrapping up a surprisingly inactive 2018-19 offseason with clear budgetary limitations in place.

Marlins To Hire Jorge Posada

By Jeff Todd | February 12, 2019 at 10:10pm CDT

The Marlins are “expected” to hire long-time MLB catcher Jorge Posada as a special adviser to the club’s baseball operations department, according to Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Posada’s precise duties aren’t yet known.

Posada obviously has deep ties with Marlins CEO Derek Jeter. The pair starred together for years with the Yankees, forming half of the legendary “core four” that helped lead the New York organization to five World Series titles.

A resident of the Miami area, Posada has already established something of a presence around Marlins Park. He’ll now have a direct tie to the organization, though it remains to be seen how significant his role will be.

Posada hung up his spikes after the 2011 campaign, wrapping up an excellent 17-year career. Since then, however, Posada has kept a relatively low profile in terms of his involvement with Major League Baseball.

Red Sox Still Shopping Catchers, Seeking Rotation Depth

By Jeff Todd | February 12, 2019 at 8:49pm CDT

As pitchers and catchers report, the Red Sox are still looking to swing some deals to tweak their personnel mix in those areas. According to Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (subscription link), the organization is dangling its three backstops in trade talks while hoping to find rotation depth in return.

It’s hardly surprising to hear that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is looking to move a catcher. After all, he made clear weeks ago that the team had little interest in carrying Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Blake Swihart on the Opening Day roster.

Nevertheless, this news is worth noting. For one thing, it’s interesting that the Boston organization is still actively engaged even with camp opening. It could instead have decided to let the situation play out before considering options just before the start of the season.

Of somewhat greater import, though, is the concept that the Red Sox are looking to boost their stockpile of starters. That’s the aim of any organization, generally speaking. But that same fact makes it rather difficult to imagine that a rival team will be particularly inclined to move passable arms — particularly given the meager output of the Boston catching trio last year and the fact that the Red Sox have already broadcast their roster intentions.

Some might argue that the club ought to focus instead on its bullpen, which seems a notably risky area of an obviously talented roster. That’s perhaps a bit of a red herring, though, as any rotation depth asset could also help (directly or indirectly) with the relief unit and the club surely knows it won’t be able to swap any of its three catchers for anything approaching a premium reliever.

It’s far from clear which of those three backstops the Sox are most inclined to move. Perhaps the market will still dictate the decision to an extent, though now the club is watching the three in uniform once again and surely has its own ideas. Dombrowski said in January that Swihart would “come to camp trying to compete to be our starting catcher,” while the team previously showed its belief in Vazquez by inking him to an extension. Perhaps that makes Leon the odd man out, but he wouldn’t likely draw significant interest in trade talks and he’s also considered a much more reliable defender than Swihart.

It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Perhaps it would not be entirely surprising if the Red Sox simply end up designating one of these out-of-options players for assignment when the time comes. Then again, Dombrowski said previously that the club was waiting to “mak[e] a trade we feel good about,” seemingly indicating he believed there would be sufficient interest from other organizations to reap at least some kind of return.

AL West Notes: Encarnacion, Ohtani, Athletics, Davidson

By Steve Adams | February 12, 2019 at 7:37pm CDT

Veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion is expected to open camp with the Mariners after trade talks surrounding him failed to gain traction, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is expected to continue exploring potential deals over the course of Spring Training as needs arise throughout the league, he notes. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote over the weekend that interest in Encarnacion had faded. Encarnacion, among the game’s steadiest sluggers, has one year remaining on his three-year, $60MM contract and is almost certainly limited to American League clubs at this point of his career. An injury to a contender’s DH this spring could create some additional interest in Encarnacion, but a trade at this juncture doesn’t seem all that likely.

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